LAB 28 (+15) UKIP 20 (+7) CON 17 (-9) SNP 2 (n/c) GRN 1 (-1) LD 1 (-10) PC 1 (n/c) BNP 0 (-2)
So, the SNP, who only contest the Scottish constituency, would have 100% more MEPs than the Lib Dems, who contest every seat in Great Britain. Who'd've thunk it?
In any constituency based system, a low evenly-spread vote won't get you many seats.
With 8% of the UK vote, the LDs would have about 4x the vote of the SNP but, as you say, potentially just half the seats...
Under a national system of PR-D'Hondt they would win 6 seats.
Labour have local elections in the Mets and London on the same day unlike in 2009.
However, many Mets have became uncompetitive after Labour returned to opposition.
More than turnout, local elections on the same day will help Labour in getting activists to campaign. Labour activists usually seems the ones who couldn't brother at all about Euro elections (and EU issues)
I wonder how may people will care/remember it in May 2014?
By my reckoning, bar freak results, UKIP Scotland need to get approx 12% in May in order to gain the Lib Dem seat (which is pretty much guaranteed a goner). Here are there results in recent polls/by-elections:
Lord Ashcroft Poll (the only full Scottish VI poll to have been published): CON 18%, LAB 40%, LIBDEM 6%, SNP 31%, UKIP 2% (1,039 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone between 4 and 8 October 2013)
Dunfermline South Scottish Parliamentary by-election: 3.8%
Then add in the screeds of Scottish sub-samples where UKIP poll about 2 to 4 % and you really have to stretch the imagination to see them winning a Scottish MEP in May.
The English nationalist Farage has blown it north of the border.
Unusually I find I'm disagreeing with everything you say today - didn't get the "no justice without crime" idea on the last thread, and heartily disagree with this. Having had a lot to do with both Westminster and (less obviously, but related to my day job) the European Parliament, I think the latter is clearly superior in terms of debate quality, willingness of MEPs to think independently of the international groups and seriousness of purpose - far less posturing (Hannan and a few others excepted), far more genuine interest in details of how legislation will actually work (partly because the rapporteur system focuses doscussion helpfully and there's no overall majority, ever).
This is obviously very different from the usual impression. But I'd suggest that most people have no idea how the EP works or what it does, because the media don't tell them - none of the mainstream press report the discussions at all unless it's someone pulling a stunt. The media don't tell them partly because it's an expensive nuisance to maintain a staffer in Brussels, and partly because the issues tend to be second-level as the EU rarely decides anything that affects everyday life directly (which is why I'm not standing there).
And yes, I've always found MEPs (of most parties) to be really helpful both to me and to constituents who I've referrred to them. Have you tried yours?
Nick I have never had any reason to speak to a Euro MP and frankly can't imagine one occurring. I am interested in what you say about how it works. It may well be that my disdain is fuelled by ignorance and, as you say, by the fact that any coverage is focussed on stupid stunts or simpletons making abusive speeches.
There is clearly a chicken and egg issue here but unless and until the debates are more intelligently covered the turnout, at least in the UK, will remain derisory and will really not form a particularly convincing mandate.
I am really surprised you did not get the Durkheim point. Were you not formerly a marxist? It is a basic sociological idea that society defines the group by what it approves and disapproves of. Those definitions form the boundaries of the society and give it cohesion and purpose. Maybe I did not make it particularly clear but it would be pretty surprising if a marxist or a socialist could disagree with the premise.
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
Well clearly comedy because although you mention such political heavyweights as 'Thomas the Tank Engine' it must obviously be some sort of Xmas special as Ms Creagh is involved. (Just as a pun, but having very briefly looked at her career it doesn't seem as though she's ever rolled her sleeves up)
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
Well clearly comedy because although you mention such political heavyweights as 'Thomas the Tank Engine' it must obviously be some sort of Xmas special as Ms Creagh is involved. (Just as a pun, but having very briefly looked at her career it doesn't seem as though she's ever rolled her sleeves up)
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
Well clearly comedy because although you mention such political heavyweights as 'Thomas the Tank Engine' it must obviously be some sort of Xmas special as Ms Creagh is involved. (Just as a pun, but having very briefly looked at her career it doesn't seem as though she's ever rolled her sleeves up)
And what's more in Scotland we have 6 MEPs. At the last election there were 2 Labour, 2 SNP, 1 tory and 1 Lib Dem.
Even with the Lib Dems falling apart I suspect there will be no change. It is possible that the Lib Dems might lose their seat to the greens or the tories but not very likely. And who would notice anyway? It really is the most pointless election we hold in the UK.
The Lib Dems won't lose their seat to the Tories in Scotland. The Greens aren't out of the question but they'd be most likely to lose it to Labour or the SNP. A split of, say, 35/30/15/10/5/5 would produce a 3/2/1 outcome for the first three parties and none for the rest.
Providing the leading party does not get >3x the votes of the 4th party, the sixth seat will go to whoever is highest from LD, UKIP or Green.
I wouldn't rule out UKIP bizarrely winning a seat in Scotland...
I would have agreed with you, if this hadn't happened last month:
Yeah, but have you forgotten the time the Lib Dems gained Dunfermline in 2006, when they didn't have a leader, after stabbing the alcoholic Scotsman they had as leader in the front.
They also had leadership contenders embroiled in scandals that boggled the mind whilst the by-election campaign was on.
Following that logic the SLDs will have to frontally stab the mouth-frothing Rennie they have as leader. And add in a few mind-boggling scandals for the three-legged cairn terrier, the depressed puffin and the angry gannet that will be contending the vacant leadership.
Different elections. UKIP have won 5-6% in Scotland at the last two Euro elections.
Current Euro polling shows UKIP up about 7% UK-wide since 2009.
I'm sure you can do the math.
But pretty much 100% of that 7 point rise is in England&Wales. There has been zero sign of a UKIP surge in Scotland. Or are you seriously disputing that Rod?
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
Well clearly comedy because although you mention such political heavyweights as 'Thomas the Tank Engine' it must obviously be some sort of Xmas special as Ms Creagh is involved. (Just as a pun, but having very briefly looked at her career it doesn't seem as though she's ever rolled her sleeves up)
I think Mary Creagh wants the tom-boy vote all sewn up for Labour.
Different elections. UKIP have won 5-6% in Scotland at the last two Euro elections.
Current Euro polling shows UKIP up about 7% UK-wide since 2009.
I'm sure you can do the math.
But pretty much 100% of that 7 point rise is in England&Wales. There has been zero sign of a UKIP surge in Scotland. Or are you seriously disputing that Rod?
I obviously can't dispute your local knowledge.
But I still don't rule out a seat for UKIP. I never said it was a certainty or odds-on, but it remains a possibility, imho...
And what's more in Scotland we have 6 MEPs. At the last election there were 2 Labour, 2 SNP, 1 tory and 1 Lib Dem.
Even with the Lib Dems falling apart I suspect there will be no change. It is possible that the Lib Dems might lose their seat to the greens or the tories but not very likely. And who would notice anyway? It really is the most pointless election we hold in the UK.
Huh??
The Lib Dems losing their sole Scottish MEP to Labour or the SNP is pretty much a certainty.
Holding it is unlikely, but possible.
UKIP winning it is profoundly unlikely, but within the realms of possibility.
But "might lose their seat to the greens or the tories" is just plain daft.
I must admit that your very odd comment there has seriously cast doubt as to your credentials as a commenter on Scottish politics. I had you down as one of the less dire posters on here, but I may have to review my assessment.
Different elections. UKIP have won 5-6% in Scotland at the last two Euro elections.
Current Euro polling shows UKIP up about 7% UK-wide since 2009.
I'm sure you can do the math.
But pretty much 100% of that 7 point rise is in England&Wales. There has been zero sign of a UKIP surge in Scotland. Or are you seriously disputing that Rod?
I obviously can't dispute your local knowledge.
But I still don't rule out a seat for UKIP. I never said it was a certainty or odds-on, but it remains a possibility, imho...
Nothing to do with "local knowledge" Rod. You have access to the same polling and by-election information as I do and everyone else does. Take a good, long look at the published, easily-available data, because it speaks volumes:
100% (or damn close to 100%) of UKIP's surge comes from England and Wales only. They are a non-event in Scotland.
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
Well clearly comedy because although you mention such political heavyweights as 'Thomas the Tank Engine' it must obviously be some sort of Xmas special as Ms Creagh is involved. (Just as a pun, but having very briefly looked at her career it doesn't seem as though she's ever rolled her sleeves up)
Personally, I think The Hobbit should be banned as a misogynistic subjugation of women. I mean, look it: twelve dwarves, (sorry, persons of restricted growth) - all male, join up with two other males (of course, the leader has to be male and TALL) to defeat a powerful enemy (also male), on the way fighting off legions of other enemies, also all male (*)
And all that fighting - it's so masculine. To make the film appeal to female audiences, some of the fighting scenes should be replaced with a clothes shopping spree at Lake-town.
The only women appear as either powerful Goddess-type immortal Elves, female-socialised scared children, or Goddess-type higher beings. The latter are meant to represent the idealised woman that all females have to strive to become, flawless and perfect. This is all part of the routine subjugation that plays constantly in the background of the media as ordered by the political class.
What is more, the odds should be that at least one of the group should be LGBT, and yet there are no indications of this. This heteronormativity should be addressed immediately in an edit, where Balin wears a dress, Gloin takes the phrase 'camp' fire too far, and Nori decorates his purple hood with ribbons.
How can we expect any women to go and word down in t'pit if all they see of miners are those twelve dwarves? And Brassed Off should be right out as well - blooming token woman working in t'surface ...
(*) Although I wasn't quite sure of a coupe of the lesser Orcs, who naturally enough just so happened to be decapitated.
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
Well clearly comedy because although you mention such political heavyweights as 'Thomas the Tank Engine' it must obviously be some sort of Xmas special as Ms Creagh is involved. (Just as a pun, but having very briefly looked at her career it doesn't seem as though she's ever rolled her sleeves up)
From wiki:
' Creagh was criticised by the tribunal as "heavily influenced by her political motives" and that she was an "insensitive witness, lacking in balanced judgment and one who was prepared to make assumptions about honesty and integrity of others without any proper basis". '
Lacking in balanced judgement ? Looks like she hasn't changed much.
One awaits the criticism of Totally Spies for its lack of strong male characters
Of course, if you really want a politically incorrect book (male lead, and he's smoking on the cover) do feel free to check out Sir Edric's Temple.
By chance, I was considering gender stuff and have spent a little time today changing the gender (just pronouns, no actions or suchlike) of the protagonist in a short story. Bit sleepy now, but I'll assess it tomorrow and see which one I prefer.
Can't find it right away, but Joe Abercrombie did a very interesting piece on his blog about how Best Served Cold would have come across if everybody had been of the opposite gender.
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
Personally, I think The Hobbit should be banned as a misogynistic subjugation of women. I mean, look it: twelve dwarves, (sorry, persons of restricted growth) - all male, join up with two other males (of course, the leader has to be male and TALL) to defeat a powerful enemy (also male), on the way fighting off legions of other enemies, also all male (*)
And all that fighting - it's so masculine. To make the film appeal to female audiences, some of the fighting scenes should be replaced with a clothes shopping spree at Lake-town.
The only women appear as either powerful Goddess-type immortal Elves, female-socialised scared children, or Goddess-type higher beings. The latter are meant to represent the idealised woman that all females have to strive to become, flawless and perfect. This is all part of the routine subjugation that plays constantly in the background of the media as ordered by the political class.
What is more, the odds should be that at least one of the group should be LGBT, and yet there are no indications of this. This heteronormativity should be addressed immediately in an edit, where Balin wears a dress, Gloin takes the phrase 'camp' fire too far, and Nori decorates his purple hood with ribbons.
How can we expect any women to go and word down in t'pit if all they see of miners are those twelve dwarves? And Brassed Off should be right out as well - blooming token woman working in t'surface ...
(*) Although I wasn't quite sure of a coupe of the lesser Orcs, who naturally enough just so happened to be decapitated.
If you're ever bored, go to a geek forum, and say "I'm boycotting anything LOTR related, because of the anti-semtism of JRR Tolkien"
Sit back and enjoy, it's the internet equivalent of of throwing the laxatives into the monkey house at the zoo.
Major new blow to Scottish independence bid as Catalan leader admits breaking from Spain could mean EU exclusion
The remarks of Catalan President Artur Mas are certain to explode in the Scottish debate as nationalists in Scotland, where a referendum is to be held in 2014, have dismissed as "scaremongering" the idea that Scotland may have to leave the EU
Why on earth have Paddy Power wasted their time pricing up Huddersfield (Lab 1/100) when there are screeds of excellent Scottish marginals lacking bookie prices? Eg.
Argyll and Bute Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross East Dunbartonshire Edinburgh West
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
She has a point, although it is tiny when compared to the much larger elephant in the room.
I'm curious about why she chose train drivers - is it because it was the easiest way to score a cheap point against Thomas the Tank Engine, or because she is so terminally poor at her brief that she thinks they're the railway's only important employees, just because they are visible?
The bigger problem is women on the railways as a whole. Network Rail is very poor at getting women into its ranks, despite trying (equal pay messes have probably not helped). In 2010, just 12.7% of its workforce was female, and I'm guessing they'd be weighted towards the office jobs.
But it is f'all to do with Thomas the Tank Engine. Engineering as a whole is very poor at attracting women in - even when the engineering involves no physical work, such as shuffling electrons instead of riveting girders. In the UK, we have the lowest proportion of female engineers in the EU - just 9%.
But if you want the real scandal: just 0.5% of all truck drivers in the UK are female. Let's see her bang on about Eddie Stobart ...
Labour have local elections in the Mets and London on the same day unlike in 2009.
However, many Mets have became uncompetitive after Labour returned to opposition.
More than turnout, local elections on the same day will help Labour in getting activists to campaign. Labour activists usually seems the ones who couldn't brother at all about Euro elections (and EU issues)
I don't think it helped Labour that much in 2004, though, to have local elections on the same day.
In case anyone is wondering, the sole remaining LD MEP (on the Euro poll figures & UNS) would be in the South East.
Large district magnitude would save their bacon there...
The LDs seats will probably be lost in the following order, which could give rise to some interesting in-play betting opportunities, given they are unlikely to be declared in this order...
SouthEast(1), Scotland, East Midlands, NorthEast, West Midlands, Yorks/Humber, Eastern, London, NorthWest, SouthWest, SouthEast(1)
e.g if West Midlands is declared first, and the LDs hold their seat, it would be a good bet that they will win 7 seats in total...
Presumably, Thomas and the other tank engines, should form a revolutionary socialist collective, with appropriate numbers of LGBT, BME, and differently-abled tank engines, too.
TheScreamingEagles - If you're ever bored, go to a geek forum, and say "I'm boycotting anything LOTR related, because of the anti-semtism of JRR Tolkien"
Sit back and enjoy, it's the internet equivalent of of throwing the laxatives into the monkey house at the zoo.
JR Tolkein - But if I am to understand that you are enquiring whether I am of Jewish origin, I can only reply that I regret that I appear to have no ancestors of that gifted people….
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
She has a point, although it is tiny when compared to the much larger elephant in the room.
I'm curious about why she chose train drivers - is it because it was the easiest way to score a cheap point against Thomas the Tank Engine, or because she is so terminally poor at her brief that she thinks they're the railway's only important employees, just because they are visible?
The bigger problem is women on the railways as a whole. Network Rail is very poor at getting women into its ranks, despite trying (equal pay messes have probably not helped). In 2010, just 12.7% of its workforce was female, and I'm guessing they'd be weighted towards the office jobs.
But it is f'all to do with Thomas the Tank Engine. Engineering as a whole is very poor at attracting women in - even when the engineering involves no physical work, such as shuffling electrons instead of riveting girders. In the UK, we have the lowest proportion of female engineers in the EU - just 9%.
But if you want the real scandal: just 0.5% of all truck drivers in the UK are female. Let's see her bang on about Eddie Stobart ...
Labour have local elections in the Mets and London on the same day unlike in 2009.
However, many Mets have became uncompetitive after Labour returned to opposition.
More than turnout, local elections on the same day will help Labour in getting activists to campaign. Labour activists usually seems the ones who couldn't brother at all about Euro elections (and EU issues)
I don't think it helped Labour that much in 2004, though, to have local elections on the same day.
But the areas with local elections in 2014 are not the same as the ones which had local elections in 2004. Next year's elections happen to be almost exclusively in urban areas in which Labour is strong. Given that the turnout will be higher in these areas and most voters will vote for the same party at both local and Euro level the effect of next year's local elections will be to raise the Labour Euro vote share.
Major new blow to Scottish independence bid as Catalan leader admits breaking from Spain could mean EU exclusion
The remarks of Catalan President Artur Mas are certain to explode in the Scottish debate as nationalists in Scotland, where a referendum is to be held in 2014, have dismissed as "scaremongering" the idea that Scotland may have to leave the EU
TheScreamingEagles - If you're ever bored, go to a geek forum, and say "I'm boycotting anything LOTR related, because of the anti-semtism of JRR Tolkien"
Sit back and enjoy, it's the internet equivalent of of throwing the laxatives into the monkey house at the zoo.
JR Tolkein - But if I am to understand that you are enquiring whether I am of Jewish origin, I can only reply that I regret that I appear to have no ancestors of that gifted people….
Why the smear?
You silly sausage. Irony is a just a metal to you isn't it?
Still since you're around, would you mind telling me what my secret agenda re Lee Rigby is?
UKIP supporters who think that these elections matter or will be a launch pad to anything more than more expense account dinners for their candidates are deceiving themselves. Let me throw out a challenge. Has anyone on this Board ever got any assistance from a Euro MP?
I haven't had a problem with the planning permission for a shed and taken that to my MEP and had them fix it, but on issues that I follow like IP reform and internet censorship, the European Parliament has been the only one that I follow where I've seen proposals that are popular with well-connected, well-funded insiders (in this case rights holders) get defeated as a result of pressure by voters who cared about it.
Nick I have never had any reason to speak to a Euro MP and frankly can't imagine one occurring. I am interested in what you say about how it works. It may well be that my disdain is fuelled by ignorance and, as you say, by the fact that any coverage is focussed on stupid stunts or simpletons making abusive speeches.
There is clearly a chicken and egg issue here but unless and until the debates are more intelligently covered the turnout, at least in the UK, will remain derisory and will really not form a particularly convincing mandate.
I am really surprised you did not get the Durkheim point. Were you not formerly a marxist? It is a basic sociological idea that society defines the group by what it approves and disapproves of. Those definitions form the boundaries of the society and give it cohesion and purpose. Maybe I did not make it particularly clear but it would be pretty surprising if a marxist or a socialist could disagree with the premise.
Thanks for the as-always courteous reply, David. On Durkheim, I understand the principle, but not the approval of it or the view that society is satisfactorily defined by distinguishing it from rival societies.
It's quite a while since I was a marxist and one reason I'm not is that I've come to feel that there are few sharp differences between most people, just different circumstances, and we exaggerate the differences to our collective disadvantage, like people who spend all their time brooding on how unreasonable they think their spouses are. For example, I'm not angry with Amazon's managers for avoiding British tax, merely feeling that it's our fault for making it sensible to do so. I suppose you could say that I'm a one nation politician at heart, except I'd make my nation the globe, with the necessary caution that we do need to look after our interests in particular since others may not bother.
Different elections. UKIP have won 5-6% in Scotland at the last two Euro elections.
Current Euro polling shows UKIP up about 7% UK-wide since 2009.
I'm sure you can do the math.
But pretty much 100% of that 7 point rise is in England&Wales. There has been zero sign of a UKIP surge in Scotland. Or are you seriously disputing that Rod?
'Surge' might be putting it a bit strongly but weren't UKIP scoring around 1% in Scotland pre-2010 on the occasions they even bothered to stand? The Euro-elections are a different kettle of fish from Westminster or Holyrood and if UKIP are registering 3% in Westminster VI polls (backed up by by-elections) then we ought to assume that they'll improve on the 5% they registered in 2009.
Whether they'll make it to double figures is moot (fwiw, I think high single figures is more likely), and I strongly doubt UNS is applicable there (UNS notably didn't apply in Scotland in 2010) but such evidence as we have does point to them being within range of the sixth seat.
UKIP have to be favourites to get the highest vote share, but I see them as odds against. The EU elections are elections that much of the public treat frivolously. Many will not vote and many of those who will vote will not put much thought into it. .
But turnout will be higher in areas where local elections are taking place on the same day as the Euros. People are more interested in their local councils and since local council candidates are far more numerous than MEP candidates there will be a much greater effort on the ground in areas where council seats are up for grabs. Next year's local elections take place in London boroughs and other areas where Labour is generally strong and UKIP and the Tories are weak. The higher turnout in these areas will boost Labour's national vote share in the Euros and make it harder for UKIP to come top.
It's certainly another reason why the Tories won't win it. Whether it will prevent UKIP is a different matter and depends to no small extent on how much Labour voters at local level are prepared to split their vote by supporting UKIP in Europe.
I doubt that Labour voters turning out primarily to elect their councillors are likely to go with UKIP for the Euros in any significant numbers, particularly in London. There are fewer and fewer of the old white working class in London now, Labour's core vote comes increasingly from the metropolitan/liberal/cosmopolitan/ethnic minority nexus and these people are repelled by UKIP's white male xenophobia. UKIP's presence in Labour boroughs in London is generally minimal and their performance in the GLA election last year was not insipiring, although this may be partly down to their decision not to stand under the UKIP name.
How well did Labour do in 2004, when these same areas were contested at local level, on the same day as the Euro elections?
There is clearly a chicken and egg issue here but unless and until the debates are more intelligently covered the turnout, at least in the UK, will remain derisory and will really not form a particularly convincing mandate.
Ultimately I think two trends will fix this:
1) People will get better at working around the media. Particularly I see a bit of European Parliament-related stuff pushed at me by pressure groups in areas I'm interested in. As I say up-thread they do seem to be an organization that can be moved by online petitions and emails (unlike national governments where MPs are mostly just going to vote the party line, which is decided by the executive) so for example if you're interested in bird protection, you'll see stuff shared in Facebook by bird protection groups trying to encourage you to contact MEPs.
2) The parliament will become more obviously important, particularly if their gambit where the winning party's candidate is supposed to president of the Commission pays off. Once the voters are effectively electing a president (starting with a primary in most cases) the winner will be the person with the most democratic legitimacy at the top of the EU, which they'll gradually leverage for more actual power, like the US president did.
Their fall in Euro 2004 (5.4%) was much less than their fall in opinion polls compared to 1999. However, their 1999 score was crap given the national situation at the time which made the better than average performance inevitable. Determing the exent would be a guess.
2004 Euros also showed a Con to Lab swing. However there was the raise of UKIP which took votes away from Tories.
Labour have local elections in the Mets and London on the same day unlike in 2009.
However, many Mets have became uncompetitive after Labour returned to opposition.
More than turnout, local elections on the same day will help Labour in getting activists to campaign. Labour activists usually seems the ones who couldn't brother at all about Euro elections (and EU issues)
I don't think it helped Labour that much in 2004, though, to have local elections on the same day.
But the areas with local elections in 2014 are not the same as the ones which had local elections in 2004. Next year's elections happen to be almost exclusively in urban areas in which Labour is strong. Given that the turnout will be higher in these areas and most voters will vote for the same party at both local and Euro level the effect of next year's local elections will be to raise the Labour Euro vote share.
Labour have local elections in the Mets and London on the same day unlike in 2009.
However, many Mets have became uncompetitive after Labour returned to opposition.
More than turnout, local elections on the same day will help Labour in getting activists to campaign. Labour activists usually seems the ones who couldn't brother at all about Euro elections (and EU issues)
I don't think it helped Labour that much in 2004, though, to have local elections on the same day.
But the areas with local elections in 2014 are not the same as the ones which had local elections in 2004. Next year's elections happen to be almost exclusively in urban areas in which Labour is strong. Given that the turnout will be higher in these areas and most voters will vote for the same party at both local and Euro level the effect of next year's local elections will be to raise the Labour Euro vote share.
Largely, they are the same areas in 2014 as 2004. The Met boroughs, London Assembly, and a number of Districts and Unitary Authorities. Labour won 22% in the Euro elections. They're in opposition now, so should do better, but UKIP in turn are far better placed to pick up protest voters than they were 10 years ago.
As a kid in England I recall that every year my dad would buy my mother for Christmas and on her birthday, a big box of Terrys of York 1767 chocolates. When I got married in the 70s I did the same for my wife while we lived in England.
On Christmas Day she gave me a small present containing a Terrys chocolate orange. I was thrilled until I looked on the bottom and saw it was made by Kraft in Poland!
As a kid in England I recall that every year my dad would buy my mother for Christmas and on her birthday, a big box of Terrys of York 1767 chocolates. When I got married in the 70s I did the same for my wife while we lived in England.
On Christmas Day she gave me a small present containing a Terrys chocolate orange. I was thrilled until I looked on the bottom and saw it was made by Kraft in Poland!
On the other hand Labour did crap in London in 2004 even with the mayoral race on the same day. However, Respect got almost 5% in London. Too many variables to decide if having local elections on the same day did any effect. It depends on the perceptive you see it.
I am less convinced now than 2 hours ago that it will be helpful for Labour. Still not convinced it won't either.
And what's more in Scotland we have 6 MEPs. At the last election there were 2 Labour, 2 SNP, 1 tory and 1 Lib Dem.
Even with the Lib Dems falling apart I suspect there will be no change. It is possible that the Lib Dems might lose their seat to the greens or the tories but not very likely. And who would notice anyway? It really is the most pointless election we hold in the UK.
Huh??
The Lib Dems losing their sole Scottish MEP to Labour or the SNP is pretty much a certainty.
Holding it is unlikely, but possible.
UKIP winning it is profoundly unlikely, but within the realms of possibility.
But "might lose their seat to the greens or the tories" is just plain daft.
I must admit that your very odd comment there has seriously cast doubt as to your credentials as a commenter on Scottish politics. I had you down as one of the less dire posters on here, but I may have to review my assessment.
Well Stuart we shall see but the last time out Labour got 2 seats on 229K and the tories got one on 186K. For Labour to win the third seat they would need to get more than 3x the tory vote and that is just not going to happen.
The SNP got 2 seats on 321K so they are in a much better starting point to reach the 3x but it is still a stretch. For the tories to win the seat they need to get twice the Lib Dem (prev 127K) or Green (last time on 80K) or UKIP (last time 57K). I think that is possible, indeed likely. The tories got more than 2x either the Greens or UKIP the last time.
So if the Lib Dem vote gotes down from 127K to, say, 80K, who picks up the extra seat? On the last figures the tory does. Of course the tories may not do as well or Labour may recover substantially from what was a poor performance for them but I think the tories are the favourties. If 10K of the Lib Dems went green then getting twice their vote may be a stretch for the tories and if they got 15K it would probably be impossible. The high point for the greens may have passed but that also strikes me as far from impossible.
So I really don't agree that Labour or the SNP are going to get the additional seat. The Lib dems hanging on seems most likely but if they don't the tories must be favourites to pick it up.
As a kid in England I recall that every year my dad would buy my mother for Christmas and on her birthday, a big box of Terrys of York 1767 chocolates. When I got married in the 70s I did the same for my wife while we lived in England.
On Christmas Day she gave me a small present containing a Terrys chocolate orange. I was thrilled until I looked on the bottom and saw it was made by Kraft in Poland!
Apparently Terrys is no more.
But they still taste as nice.
I hope so - I'm saving it for Sunday night as comfort food if the Eagles beat the Cowboys :-(
Labour have local elections in the Mets and London on the same day unlike in 2009.
However, many Mets have became uncompetitive after Labour returned to opposition.
More than turnout, local elections on the same day will help Labour in getting activists to campaign. Labour activists usually seems the ones who couldn't brother at all about Euro elections (and EU issues)
I don't think it helped Labour that much in 2004, though, to have local elections on the same day.
But the areas with local elections in 2014 are not the same as the ones which had local elections in 2004. Next year's elections happen to be almost exclusively in urban areas in which Labour is strong. Given that the turnout will be higher in these areas and most voters will vote for the same party at both local and Euro level the effect of next year's local elections will be to raise the Labour Euro vote share.
Labour have local elections in the Mets and London on the same day unlike in 2009.
However, many Mets have became uncompetitive after Labour returned to opposition.
More than turnout, local elections on the same day will help Labour in getting activists to campaign. Labour activists usually seems the ones who couldn't brother at all about Euro elections (and EU issues)
I don't think it helped Labour that much in 2004, though, to have local elections on the same day.
But the areas with local elections in 2014 are not the same as the ones which had local elections in 2004. Next year's elections happen to be almost exclusively in urban areas in which Labour is strong. Given that the turnout will be higher in these areas and most voters will vote for the same party at both local and Euro level the effect of next year's local elections will be to raise the Labour Euro vote share.
Largely, they are the same areas in 2014 as 2004. The Met boroughs, London Assembly, and a number of Districts and Unitary Authorities. Labour won 22% in the Euro elections. They're in opposition now, so should do better, but UKIP in turn are far better placed to pick up protest voters than they were 10 years ago.
And Tory voters are most likely to stay at home or register a protest vote for UKIP, partly because of the effect of being in government but also because most of them are closer to UKIP's position on Europe than Cameron's. These elections will almost certianly see the lowest Tory vote share ever recorded at a national election, which is hardly likely to calm nerves less than 12 months before the general election.
Another factor may be the number of people like me who will almost certainly vote Green (unless there's a chance of the SNP losing their 2nd seat - which seems remote), but might vote SNP again, if an SNP 3rd seat seems more likely than a Green seat.
With AMS for Holyrood and STV for local elections, Scottish voters have developed a level of sophistication in deciding how to cast their votes in various PR systems.
The Lib Dems losing their sole Scottish MEP to Labour or the SNP is pretty much a certainty.
Holding it is unlikely, but possible.
UKIP winning it is profoundly unlikely, but within the realms of possibility.
But "might lose their seat to the greens or the tories" is just plain daft.
I must admit that your very odd comment there has seriously cast doubt as to your credentials as a commenter on Scottish politics. I had you down as one of the less dire posters on here, but I may have to review my assessment.
Well Stuart we shall see but the last time out Labour got 2 seats on 229K and the tories got one on 186K. For Labour to win the third seat they would need to get more than 3x the tory vote and that is just not going to happen.
The SNP got 2 seats on 321K so they are in a much better starting point to reach the 3x but it is still a stretch. For the tories to win the seat they need to get twice the Lib Dem (prev 127K) or Green (last time on 80K) or UKIP (last time 57K). I think that is possible, indeed likely. The tories got more than 2x either the Greens or UKIP the last time.
So if the Lib Dem vote gotes down from 127K to, say, 80K, who picks up the extra seat? On the last figures the tory does. Of course the tories may not do as well or Labour may recover substantially from what was a poor performance for them but I think the tories are the favourties. If 10K of the Lib Dems went green then getting twice their vote may be a stretch for the tories and if they got 15K it would probably be impossible. The high point for the greens may have passed but that also strikes me as far from impossible.
So I really don't agree that Labour or the SNP are going to get the additional seat. The Lib dems hanging on seems most likely but if they don't the tories must be favourites to pick it up.
Sorry David, that's just wrong.
If the results were SNP 321k, Lab 229k, Con 186k, LD 80k, Others less, the sixth seat would go to the SNP (321/3 is greater than 186/2).
In any case, the Tory vote is highly likely to be down on 2009 given the developments since then (though I suspect that it won't be down by all that much) and the numbers for 2009 do give the lie to the oft-made claim that the Tories are non-existent north of the border; it's just that the blue vote is inefficiently concentrated.
There is clearly a chicken and egg issue here but unless and until the debates are more intelligently covered the turnout, at least in the UK, will remain derisory and will really not form a particularly convincing mandate.
Ultimately I think two trends will fix this:
1) People will get better at working around the media. Particularly I see a bit of European Parliament-related stuff pushed at me by pressure groups in areas I'm interested in. As I say up-thread they do seem to be an organization that can be moved by online petitions and emails (unlike national governments where MPs are mostly just going to vote the party line, which is decided by the executive) so for example if you're interested in bird protection, you'll see stuff shared in Facebook by bird protection groups trying to encourage you to contact MEPs.
2) The parliament will become more obviously important, particularly if their gambit where the winning party's candidate is supposed to president of the Commission pays off. Once the voters are effectively electing a president (starting with a primary in most cases) the winner will be the person with the most democratic legitimacy at the top of the EU, which they'll gradually leverage for more actual power, like the US president did.
Maybe but there is a big difference between the EU and the Federal Government of the US. In the EU states rights are still respected and indeed the pressure is on from the UK and, increasingly, Germany, to reverse the flow.
Secondly, the key organisation in the EU remains the Council of Ministers and the decision makers, the elected leaders of the states, have no desire to change this. When push has come to shove, on the budget for example, they have continued to rule the roost despite the attempts of the Parliament to get a say.
Inside clearly defined EU competences the Parliament may become more persuasive, especially if they can take powers from the Commission which is itself greatly diminished from the glory days of Delors, but I still don't see them as the key players.
If SNP, Lab and Con figures would remain unchanged, SNP will pick up LD lost seat. Their third quota was 107,002 (321/3). Con second quota was 92,897k (186/2)
Lab don't need 3x Con score to win the LD seat. They need 3xLD score. If Con stay at 186k, Labour need to get 279k to get a third seat before a second Con seat.
Because Quota 1 would be 279, Quota 2 139.5k and Quota 3 93k
Lab 25 SNP 25 Con 16 LD, Green and UKIP below 8 would result in Lab and SNP 2 seat each, Con 1 and final seat to the party with most votes because 25/3=8.3 while 16/2=8.0
And what's more in Scotland we have 6 MEPs. At the last election there were 2 Labour, 2 SNP, 1 tory and 1 Lib Dem.
Even with the Lib Dems falling apart I suspect there will be no change. It is possible that the Lib Dems might lose their seat to the greens or the tories but not very likely. And who would notice anyway? It really is the most pointless election we hold in the UK.
Huh??
The Lib Dems losing their sole Scottish MEP to Labour or the SNP is pretty much a certainty.
Holding it is unlikely, but possible.
UKIP winning it is profoundly unlikely, but within the realms of possibility.
But "might lose their seat to the greens or the tories" is just plain daft.
I must admit that your very odd comment there has seriously cast doubt as to your credentials as a commenter on Scottish politics. I had you down as one of the less dire posters on here, but I may have to review my assessment.
Well Stuart we shall see but the last time out Labour got 2 seats on 229K and the tories got one on 186K. For Labour to win the third seat they would need to get more than 3x the tory vote and that is just not going to happen.
The SNP got 2 seats on 321K so they are in a much better starting point to reach the 3x but it is still a stretch. For the tories to win the seat they need to get twice the Lib Dem (prev 127K) or Green (last time on 80K) or UKIP (last time 57K). I think that is possible, indeed likely. The tories got more than 2x either the Greens or UKIP the last time.
So if the Lib Dem vote gotes down from 127K to, say, 80K, who picks up the extra seat? On the last figures the tory does. Of course the tories may not do as well or Labour may recover substantially from what was a poor performance for them but I think the tories are the favourties. If 10K of the Lib Dems went green then getting twice their vote may be a stretch for the tories and if they got 15K it would probably be impossible. The high point for the greens may have passed but that also strikes me as far from impossible.
So I really don't agree that Labour or the SNP are going to get the additional seat. The Lib dems hanging on seems most likely but if they don't the tories must be favourites to pick it up.
The Lib Dems losing their sole Scottish MEP to Labour or the SNP is pretty much a certainty.
Holding it is unlikely, but possible.
UKIP winning it is profoundly unlikely, but within the realms of possibility.
But "might lose their seat to the greens or the tories" is just plain daft.
I must admit that your very odd comment there has seriously cast doubt as to your credentials as a commenter on Scottish politics. I had you down as one of the less dire posters on here, but I may have to review my assessment.
Well Stuart we shall see but the last time out Labour got 2 seats on 229K and the tories got one on 186K. For Labour to win the third seat they would need to get more than 3x the tory vote and that is just not going to happen.
The SNP got 2 seats on 321K so they are in a much better starting point to reach the 3x but it is still a stretch. For the tories to win the seat they need to get twice the Lib Dem (prev 127K) or Green (last time on 80K) or UKIP (last time 57K). I think that is possible, indeed likely. The tories got more than 2x either the Greens or UKIP the last time.
So if the Lib Dem vote gotes down from 127K to, say, 80K, who picks up the extra seat? On the last figures the tory does. Of course the tories may not do as well or Labour may recover substantially from what was a poor performance for them but I think the tories are the favourties. If 10K of the Lib Dems went green then getting twice their vote may be a stretch for the tories and if they got 15K it would probably be impossible. The high point for the greens may have passed but that also strikes me as far from impossible.
So I really don't agree that Labour or the SNP are going to get the additional seat. The Lib dems hanging on seems most likely but if they don't the tories must be favourites to pick it up.
Sorry David, that's just wrong.
If the results were SNP 321k, Lab 229k, Con 186k, LD 80k, Others less, the sixth seat would go to the SNP (321/3 is greater than 186/2).
In any case, the Tory vote is highly likely to be down on 2009 given the developments since then (though I suspect that it won't be down by all that much) and the numbers for 2009 do give the lie to the oft-made claim that the Tories are non-existent north of the border; it's just that the blue vote is inefficiently concentrated.
Yes you are right. I have made a mistake in applying the system. Thanks for the correction.
DavidL With AMS for Holyrood and STV for local elections, Scottish voters have developed a level of sophistication in deciding how to cast their votes in various PR systems.
Evening all. I hope you all had a good Xmas, with all the traditional delights such as over-eating, drinking too much, and quarrelling with the in-laws.
On topic: I'm bemused that so many people are so confident about how the Euro elections will turn out. There's very little in the way of polling, such polling as we have is out of date already (the Survation poll dates from end November), the weighting adjustments appropriate to the Euros are even more guesswork than GE polls, no-one other than political nerds has given the matter any thought, and there are still over five months to go.
"You're assuming Euro Scottish opinion polls will be right and won't decive you when evaluating your tactical vote!"
No. Scottish polling (along with my "feel" for what is happening in Scottish politics at the time) will help me to make a judgement as to how I finally vote. I've been long enough around polls to know their limitations!
Another factor may be the number of people like me who will almost certainly vote Green (unless there's a chance of the SNP losing their 2nd seat - which seems remote), but might vote SNP again, if an SNP 3rd seat seems more likely than a Green seat.
With AMS for Holyrood and STV for local elections, Scottish voters have developed a level of sophistication in deciding how to cast their votes in various PR systems.
This is why I don't like PR.
Too much complication, it lacks the simplicity of FPTP.
See, all of this is moot, if my plans for a Directly Elected Dictator/Tyrant were to be adopted.
BTW, the link you gave earlier about Artur Mas's comments was based on partial quotation from an English translation of an Italian translation of Mas's actual words in Spanish.
BTW, the link you gave earlier about Artur Mas's comments was based on partial quotation from an English translation of an Italian translation of Mas's actual words in Spanish.
It also decontextualised them.
Indeed, I've always found it wise to wait until Southam Observer has commented upon Catalonian affairs.
I think it will be quite easy to predict SNP score (at least relative to Labour score). I think the difficulty could be pre-determing Greens score. But you're an experienced watcher, so you should know better
For ex if Euro elections take place tomorrow, I think Lab and SNP would be neck and neck. But I wouldn't have a clue on how Scottish Greens would poll. But I don't live in Scotland either. So I have a good excuse.
Another factor may be the number of people like me who will almost certainly vote Green (unless there's a chance of the SNP losing their 2nd seat - which seems remote), but might vote SNP again, if an SNP 3rd seat seems more likely than a Green seat.
With AMS for Holyrood and STV for local elections, Scottish voters have developed a level of sophistication in deciding how to cast their votes in various PR systems.
This is why I don't like PR.
Too much complication, it lacks the simplicity of FPTP.
See, all of this is moot, if my plans for a Directly Elected Dictator/Tyrant were to be adopted.
Are you proposing that you should be dictator for the whole fo the EU now?
Another factor may be the number of people like me who will almost certainly vote Green (unless there's a chance of the SNP losing their 2nd seat - which seems remote), but might vote SNP again, if an SNP 3rd seat seems more likely than a Green seat.
With AMS for Holyrood and STV for local elections, Scottish voters have developed a level of sophistication in deciding how to cast their votes in various PR systems.
This is why I don't like PR.
Too much complication, it lacks the simplicity of FPTP.
See, all of this is moot, if my plans for a Directly Elected Dictator/Tyrant were to be adopted.
Are you proposing that you should be dictator for the whole fo the EU now?
Yes
My title may rival The Last King of Scotland's titles.
Something along the lines of
"His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the European Union in the UK in Particular"
I think it will be quite easy to predict SNP score (at least relative to Labour score). I think the difficulty could be pre-determing Greens score. But you're an experienced watcher, so you should know better
For ex if Euro elections take place tomorrow, I think Lab and SNP would be neck and neck. But I wouldn't have a clue on how Scottish Greens would poll. But I don't live in Scotland either. So I have a good excuse.
It's not that hard. If I judge that the SNP will keep their 2 seats, but have little chance of getting a 3rd, then I'll vote Green. It's only if the SNP are doing badly (unlikely I think) or extremely well, that I have a decision to make as to whether to vote Green or SNP.
There is clearly a chicken and egg issue here but unless and until the debates are more intelligently covered the turnout, at least in the UK, will remain derisory and will really not form a particularly convincing mandate.
Ultimately I think two trends will fix this:
2) The parliament will become more obviously important, particularly if their gambit where the winning party's candidate is supposed to president of the Commission pays off. Once the voters are effectively electing a president (starting with a primary in most cases) the winner will be the person with the most democratic legitimacy at the top of the EU, which they'll gradually leverage for more actual power, like the US president did.
(snipped the first point which I didn't understand)
Secondly, the key organisation in the EU remains the Council of Ministers and the decision makers, the elected leaders of the states, have no desire to change this. When push has come to shove, on the budget for example, they have continued to rule the roost despite the attempts of the Parliament to get a say.
Inside clearly defined EU competences the Parliament may become more persuasive, especially if they can take powers from the Commission which is itself greatly diminished from the glory days of Delors, but I still don't see them as the key players.
What I'm describing here is isn't the parliament having more power on its own, it's a combination of parliamentary and executive control in the president of the Commission, chosen through party primaries then by the parliament. Once you have a combination of a democratic mandate and control of the executive, you can expand over time to do all kinds of things that the member states wouldn't originally have signed treaties for if you'd asked them.
Turning a state-centered nomination for head of the executive into a federal election is exactly what happened in the US. The electoral college were supposed to be nominated by the state governments, not chosen by direct election. Likewise there are all kinds of examples of the expansion of the president's power once they have a democratic mandate, which have brought us to where we are today where the vote for the electoral college is the most watched election in the US. You need permission from Congress to declare war? No problem, don't declare the war, just start bombing...
SNP would be in contention for the third seat even if they aren't doing extremely badly or extremely well (ok, it depends on the definition of badly and well). The question is if the Greens are in contention for the seat or not.
SNP 25 Lab 25 Green 8 would mean a close fight between the 3. What would you vote? And would you be able to estimate if it's really 25 25 8 or 27 27 6? In the first scenario you should make a decision, second scenario requires a SNP vote.
If SNP is doing extremely well, your choice won't be crucial. Green won't get seat but SNP don't need you at the same time.
It's not that hard. If I judge that the SNP will keep their 2 seats, but have little chance of getting a 3rd, then I'll vote Green. It's only if the SNP are doing badly (unlikely I think) or extremely well, that I have a decision to make as to whether to vote Green or SNP.
I'd rather "Current affairs" should be re-classified as comedy.
Is this current affairs or comedy?
Thomas the Tank Engine has come under attack from Labour for not having enough female train drivers.
Shadow Transport Secretary Mary Creagh MP says the popular series “sets a poor example” to children.
She says more women characters should be introduced to encourage girls to become train drivers and conductors.
Ms Creagh, a mother of two, said the lack of women drivers was a “national scandal” and the “negative stereotypes” on children’s TV was partly to blame.
Well clearly comedy because although you mention such political heavyweights as 'Thomas the Tank Engine' it must obviously be some sort of Xmas special as Ms Creagh is involved. (Just as a pun, but having very briefly looked at her career it doesn't seem as though she's ever rolled her sleeves up)
Personally, I think The Hobbit should be banned as a misogynistic subjugation of women. I mean, look it: twelve dwarves, (sorry, persons of restricted growth) - all male, join up with two other males (of course, the leader has to be male and TALL) to defeat a powerful enemy (also male), on the way fighting off legions of other enemies, also all male (*)
And all that fighting - it's so masculine. To make the film appeal to female audiences, some of the fighting scenes should be replaced with a clothes shopping spree at Lake-town.
The only women appear as either powerful Goddess-type immortal Elves, female-socialised scared children, or Goddess-type higher beings. The latter are meant to represent the idealised woman that all females have to strive to become, flawless and perfect. This is all part of the routine subjugation that plays constantly in the background of the media as ordered by the political class.
What is more, the odds should be that at least one of the group should be LGBT, and yet there are no indications of this. This heteronormativity should be addressed immediately in an edit, where Balin wears a dress, Gloin takes the phrase 'camp' fire too far, and Nori decorates his purple hood with ribbons.
How can we expect any women to go and word down in t'pit if all they see of miners are those twelve dwarves? And Brassed Off should be right out as well - blooming token woman working in t'surface ...
(*) Although I wasn't quite sure of a coupe of the lesser Orcs, who naturally enough just so happened to be decapitated.
Presumably, Thomas and the other tank engines, should form a revolutionary socialist collective, with appropriate numbers of LGBT, BME, and differently-abled tank engines, too.
In 2004, UKIP got 16% of the votes and came 3rd. In 2009, UKIP got 17% of the votes and came 2nd.
The fact that UKIP went up from 3rd place to 2nd got much more comment and coverage than the fact that it went up from 16% to 17%, but in fact its achievement in coming 2nd was a side-effect of the freak fact that the Labour Party did so badly with only 16%.
On this basis, I have always thought that in 2014, UKIP will go up another slight notch to 18%, and will be in 3rd place (because Con & Lab will be more even this time).
Recent advances may mean that it's more like 20% or 22% rather than 18%, but even so I think it is very unlikely that UKIP will be 2nd let alone 1st.
P.S. I was being too generous in my first two sentences; the figures of 16% and 17% were actually 16.1% and 16.5%; the increase of 0.4% became 1% through rounding.
Comments
Good point.
With 8% of the UK vote, the LDs would have about 4x the vote of the SNP but, as you say, potentially just half the seats...
Under a national system of PR-D'Hondt they would win 6 seats.
However, many Mets have became uncompetitive after Labour returned to opposition.
More than turnout, local elections on the same day will help Labour in getting activists to campaign. Labour activists usually seems the ones who couldn't brother at all about Euro elections (and EU issues)
Ian Hudghton, Alyn Smith, David Martin, Catherine Stihler and Ian Duncan.
OldNat will pick up the 7th.
Lord Ashcroft Poll (the only full Scottish VI poll to have been published): CON 18%, LAB 40%, LIBDEM 6%, SNP 31%, UKIP 2% (1,039 adults in Scotland were interviewed by telephone between 4 and 8 October 2013)
Dunfermline South Scottish Parliamentary by-election: 3.8%
Aberdeen Donside Scottish Parliamentary by-election: 4.8%
Highland Black Isle: did not stand.
Glasgow Shettleston: 3.4%
Highland Landward Caithness: did not stand.
Fife Dunfermline South: 2.8%
South Lanarkshire Hamilton South: 2.5%
Glasgow Govan: 2.4%
Borders Tweeddale West: did not stand
Then add in the screeds of Scottish sub-samples where UKIP poll about 2 to 4 % and you really have to stretch the imagination to see them winning a Scottish MEP in May.
The English nationalist Farage has blown it north of the border.
There is clearly a chicken and egg issue here but unless and until the debates are more intelligently covered the turnout, at least in the UK, will remain derisory and will really not form a particularly convincing mandate.
I am really surprised you did not get the Durkheim point. Were you not formerly a marxist? It is a basic sociological idea that society defines the group by what it approves and disapproves of. Those definitions form the boundaries of the society and give it cohesion and purpose. Maybe I did not make it particularly clear but it would be pretty surprising if a marxist or a socialist could disagree with the premise.
What are they thinking of?
It makes EdM getting all huffy about chocolate oranges look sensible in comparison.
What are they thinking of?
It makes EdM getting all huffy about chocolate oranges look sensible in comparison.
Different elections. UKIP have won 5-6% in Scotland at the last two Euro elections.
Current Euro polling shows UKIP up about 7% UK-wide since 2009.
I'm sure you can do the math.
Their only way is up. Or oblivion.
But I still don't rule out a seat for UKIP. I never said it was a certainty or odds-on, but it remains a possibility, imho...
The Lib Dems losing their sole Scottish MEP to Labour or the SNP is pretty much a certainty.
Holding it is unlikely, but possible.
UKIP winning it is profoundly unlikely, but within the realms of possibility.
But "might lose their seat to the greens or the tories" is just plain daft.
I must admit that your very odd comment there has seriously cast doubt as to your credentials as a commenter on Scottish politics. I had you down as one of the less dire posters on here, but I may have to review my assessment.
100% (or damn close to 100%) of UKIP's surge comes from England and Wales only. They are a non-event in Scotland.
And all that fighting - it's so masculine. To make the film appeal to female audiences, some of the fighting scenes should be replaced with a clothes shopping spree at Lake-town.
The only women appear as either powerful Goddess-type immortal Elves, female-socialised scared children, or Goddess-type higher beings. The latter are meant to represent the idealised woman that all females have to strive to become, flawless and perfect. This is all part of the routine subjugation that plays constantly in the background of the media as ordered by the political class.
What is more, the odds should be that at least one of the group should be LGBT, and yet there are no indications of this. This heteronormativity should be addressed immediately in an edit, where Balin wears a dress, Gloin takes the phrase 'camp' fire too far, and Nori decorates his purple hood with ribbons.
How can we expect any women to go and word down in t'pit if all they see of miners are those twelve dwarves? And Brassed Off should be right out as well - blooming token woman working in t'surface ...
(*) Although I wasn't quite sure of a coupe of the lesser Orcs, who naturally enough just so happened to be decapitated.
' Creagh was criticised by the tribunal as "heavily influenced by her political motives" and that she was an "insensitive witness, lacking in balanced judgment and one who was prepared to make assumptions about honesty and integrity of others without any proper basis". '
Lacking in balanced judgement ? Looks like she hasn't changed much.
One awaits the criticism of Totally Spies for its lack of strong male characters
Of course, if you really want a politically incorrect book (male lead, and he's smoking on the cover) do feel free to check out Sir Edric's Temple.
By chance, I was considering gender stuff and have spent a little time today changing the gender (just pronouns, no actions or suchlike) of the protagonist in a short story. Bit sleepy now, but I'll assess it tomorrow and see which one I prefer.
Can't find it right away, but Joe Abercrombie did a very interesting piece on his blog about how Best Served Cold would have come across if everybody had been of the opposite gender.
Sit back and enjoy, it's the internet equivalent of of throwing the laxatives into the monkey house at the zoo.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum
Yes 4/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, BetVictor, BetWay, YouWin)
No 2/9 (Betfair)
The remarks of Catalan President Artur Mas are certain to explode in the Scottish debate as nationalists in Scotland, where a referendum is to be held in 2014, have dismissed as "scaremongering" the idea that Scotland may have to leave the EU
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/4516/major_new_blow_to_scottish_independence_bid_as_catalan_leader_admits_breaking_from_spain_could_mean_eu_exclusion
Argyll and Bute
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
East Dunbartonshire
Edinburgh West
etc etc etc
I'm curious about why she chose train drivers - is it because it was the easiest way to score a cheap point against Thomas the Tank Engine, or because she is so terminally poor at her brief that she thinks they're the railway's only important employees, just because they are visible?
The bigger problem is women on the railways as a whole. Network Rail is very poor at getting women into its ranks, despite trying (equal pay messes have probably not helped). In 2010, just 12.7% of its workforce was female, and I'm guessing they'd be weighted towards the office jobs.
But it is f'all to do with Thomas the Tank Engine. Engineering as a whole is very poor at attracting women in - even when the engineering involves no physical work, such as shuffling electrons instead of riveting girders. In the UK, we have the lowest proportion of female engineers in the EU - just 9%.
But if you want the real scandal: just 0.5% of all truck drivers in the UK are female. Let's see her bang on about Eddie Stobart ...
http://www.nce.co.uk/news/business/network-rail-launches-womens-employment-campaign/5213198.article
http://www.engineeringuk.com/View/?con_id=145
Large district magnitude would save their bacon there...
The LDs seats will probably be lost in the following order, which could give rise to some interesting in-play betting opportunities, given they are unlikely to be declared in this order...
SouthEast(1), Scotland, East Midlands, NorthEast, West Midlands, Yorks/Humber, Eastern, London, NorthWest, SouthWest, SouthEast(1)
e.g if West Midlands is declared first, and the LDs hold their seat, it would be a good bet that they will win 7 seats in total...
Sit back and enjoy, it's the internet equivalent of of throwing the laxatives into the monkey house at the zoo.
JR Tolkein - But if I am to understand that you are enquiring whether I am of Jewish origin, I can only reply that I regret that I appear to have no ancestors of that gifted people….
Why the smear?
Still since you're around, would you mind telling me what my secret agenda re Lee Rigby is?
This is how they saved us from ACTA:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20120703IPR48247/html/European-Parliament-rejects-ACTA
It's quite a while since I was a marxist and one reason I'm not is that I've come to feel that there are few sharp differences between most people, just different circumstances, and we exaggerate the differences to our collective disadvantage, like people who spend all their time brooding on how unreasonable they think their spouses are. For example, I'm not angry with Amazon's managers for avoiding British tax, merely feeling that it's our fault for making it sensible to do so. I suppose you could say that I'm a one nation politician at heart, except I'd make my nation the globe, with the necessary caution that we do need to look after our interests in particular since others may not bother.
Whether they'll make it to double figures is moot (fwiw, I think high single figures is more likely), and I strongly doubt UNS is applicable there (UNS notably didn't apply in Scotland in 2010) but such evidence as we have does point to them being within range of the sixth seat.
How well did Labour do in 2004, when these same areas were contested at local level, on the same day as the Euro elections?
1) People will get better at working around the media. Particularly I see a bit of European Parliament-related stuff pushed at me by pressure groups in areas I'm interested in. As I say up-thread they do seem to be an organization that can be moved by online petitions and emails (unlike national governments where MPs are mostly just going to vote the party line, which is decided by the executive) so for example if you're interested in bird protection, you'll see stuff shared in Facebook by bird protection groups trying to encourage you to contact MEPs.
2) The parliament will become more obviously important, particularly if their gambit where the winning party's candidate is supposed to president of the Commission pays off. Once the voters are effectively electing a president (starting with a primary in most cases) the winner will be the person with the most democratic legitimacy at the top of the EU, which they'll gradually leverage for more actual power, like the US president did.
Their fall in Euro 2004 (5.4%) was much less than their fall in opinion polls compared to 1999. However, their 1999 score was crap given the national situation at the time which made the better than average performance inevitable. Determing the exent would be a guess.
2004 Euros also showed a Con to Lab swing. However there was the raise of UKIP which took votes away from Tories.
"[MEPs] also receive up to £242,000 annually in staff salaries and office expenses "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8441261/MEPs-vote-to-keep-world-beating-salaries-and-allowances.html
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/may/24/mps-expenses-ukip-nigel-farage
On Christmas Day she gave me a small present containing a Terrys chocolate orange. I was thrilled until I looked on the bottom and saw it was made by Kraft in Poland!
Apparently Terrys is no more.
I am less convinced now than 2 hours ago that it will be helpful for Labour. Still not convinced it won't either.
The SNP got 2 seats on 321K so they are in a much better starting point to reach the 3x but it is still a stretch. For the tories to win the seat they need to get twice the Lib Dem (prev 127K) or Green (last time on 80K) or UKIP (last time 57K). I think that is possible, indeed likely. The tories got more than 2x either the Greens or UKIP the last time.
So if the Lib Dem vote gotes down from 127K to, say, 80K, who picks up the extra seat? On the last figures the tory does. Of course the tories may not do as well or Labour may recover substantially from what was a poor performance for them but I think the tories are the favourties. If 10K of the Lib Dems went green then getting twice their vote may be a stretch for the tories and if they got 15K it would probably be impossible. The high point for the greens may have passed but that also strikes me as far from impossible.
So I really don't agree that Labour or the SNP are going to get the additional seat. The Lib dems hanging on seems most likely but if they don't the tories must be favourites to pick it up.
Another factor may be the number of people like me who will almost certainly vote Green (unless there's a chance of the SNP losing their 2nd seat - which seems remote), but might vote SNP again, if an SNP 3rd seat seems more likely than a Green seat.
With AMS for Holyrood and STV for local elections, Scottish voters have developed a level of sophistication in deciding how to cast their votes in various PR systems.
If the results were SNP 321k, Lab 229k, Con 186k, LD 80k, Others less, the sixth seat would go to the SNP (321/3 is greater than 186/2).
In any case, the Tory vote is highly likely to be down on 2009 given the developments since then (though I suspect that it won't be down by all that much) and the numbers for 2009 do give the lie to the oft-made claim that the Tories are non-existent north of the border; it's just that the blue vote is inefficiently concentrated.
Secondly, the key organisation in the EU remains the Council of Ministers and the decision makers, the elected leaders of the states, have no desire to change this. When push has come to shove, on the budget for example, they have continued to rule the roost despite the attempts of the Parliament to get a say.
Inside clearly defined EU competences the Parliament may become more persuasive, especially if they can take powers from the Commission which is itself greatly diminished from the glory days of Delors, but I still don't see them as the key players.
Lab don't need 3x Con score to win the LD seat. They need 3xLD score. If Con stay at 186k, Labour need to get 279k to get a third seat before a second Con seat.
Because Quota 1 would be 279, Quota 2 139.5k and Quota 3 93k
Lab 25 SNP 25 Con 16 LD, Green and UKIP below 8 would result
in Lab and SNP 2 seat each, Con 1 and final seat to the party with most votes
because 25/3=8.3 while 16/2=8.0
On topic: I'm bemused that so many people are so confident about how the Euro elections will turn out. There's very little in the way of polling, such polling as we have is out of date already (the Survation poll dates from end November), the weighting adjustments appropriate to the Euros are even more guesswork than GE polls, no-one other than political nerds has given the matter any thought, and there are still over five months to go.
"You're assuming Euro Scottish opinion polls will be right and won't decive you when evaluating your tactical vote!"
No. Scottish polling (along with my "feel" for what is happening in Scottish politics at the time) will help me to make a judgement as to how I finally vote. I've been long enough around polls to know their limitations!
Too much complication, it lacks the simplicity of FPTP.
See, all of this is moot, if my plans for a Directly Elected Dictator/Tyrant were to be adopted.
BTW, the link you gave earlier about Artur Mas's comments was based on partial quotation from an English translation of an Italian translation of Mas's actual words in Spanish.
It also decontextualised them.
I think it will be quite easy to predict SNP score (at least relative to Labour score). I think the difficulty could be pre-determing Greens score. But you're an experienced watcher, so you should know better
For ex if Euro elections take place tomorrow, I think Lab and SNP would be neck and neck. But I wouldn't have a clue on how Scottish Greens would poll. But I don't live in Scotland either. So I have a good excuse.
My title may rival The Last King of Scotland's titles.
Something along the lines of
"His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the European Union in the UK in Particular"
I stay up tonight, and England are performing like the Scottish football team at at an Association Football world cup.
Man 'Used Facebook To Contact Al Qaeda'
A Californian man is facing 15 years in prison after he admitted to offering to help al Qaeda with weapons training.
http://news.sky.com/story/1187647/man-used-facebook-to-contact-al-qaeda
Turning a state-centered nomination for head of the executive into a federal election is exactly what happened in the US. The electoral college were supposed to be nominated by the state governments, not chosen by direct election. Likewise there are all kinds of examples of the expansion of the president's power once they have a democratic mandate, which have brought us to where we are today where the vote for the electoral college is the most watched election in the US. You need permission from Congress to declare war? No problem, don't declare the war, just start bombing...
SNP 25 Lab 25 Green 8 would mean a close fight between the 3. What would you vote? And would you be able to estimate if it's really 25 25 8 or 27 27 6? In the first scenario you should make a decision, second scenario requires a SNP vote.
If SNP is doing extremely well, your choice won't be crucial. Green won't get seat but SNP don't need you at the same time.
9/2 with Sportingbet.
4-0 +45
3-0 +45
4-1 +18.24
3-1 +44.08
3-2 +75.41
He's convinced my tips on Sours are a curse.
In 2009, UKIP got 17% of the votes and came 2nd.
The fact that UKIP went up from 3rd place to 2nd got much more comment and coverage than the fact that it went up from 16% to 17%, but in fact its achievement in coming 2nd was a side-effect of the freak fact that the Labour Party did so badly with only 16%.
On this basis, I have always thought that in 2014, UKIP will go up another slight notch to 18%, and will be in 3rd place (because Con & Lab will be more even this time).
Recent advances may mean that it's more like 20% or 22% rather than 18%, but even so I think it is very unlikely that UKIP will be 2nd let alone 1st.
P.S. I was being too generous in my first two sentences; the figures of 16% and 17% were actually 16.1% and 16.5%; the increase of 0.4% became 1% through rounding.
Labour is my worst result on the night but it has decent 'metagame' connotations for my (larger) GE positions.
Lots of different opinions on the Euros a difficult election to call. Lib Dens last is the only 'nailed on'