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27 days to go until the end of the transition and punters remain confident that there’ll be a deal –
27 days to go until the end of the transition and punters remain confident that there’ll be a deal – politicalbetting.com
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https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker
The ghosts of Eden and Chamberlain will be able to say in good conscience 'No longer the worst!'
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1334030049788518401?s=09
No one was interested in the donations his ex-wife made to the Clinton Foundation.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-cdc/scarce-early-vaccine-supply-should-go-to-health-workers-nursing-homes-u-s-health-advisers-idUSKBN28B6B3
Ditto Michael Gove who loves the Union more than Brexit and yet....
People not driven insane by Brexit will shrug and ignore the hysterical voices off whilst they concentrate on the important stuff, the vaccine, family, how to survive the economic disruption of the virus and family. Hopefully, one day, we will all move on. But I'm not holding my breath.
Up to 2019, Boris did whatever he needed to do to get what he wanted.
Now he has what he coveted, and it has turned to a pile of poo, in a really predictable way.
I was expecting a narrow win, followed by peace and quiet until the whole country charged out of the EU, a number of years later, over the creation of an EU wide health service.
If not then there will be a look-it's-an-extension-but-we've-fooled- @Philip_Thompson - so-everyone-keep-quiet situation.
"If the UK and EU sign a trade deal between the 16th January 2020 and the 31st December 2020 this market will be settled as yes. If the trade deal is agreed in this period but comes into force at a later date, this market will be settled for yes.
This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal.
If no trade deal is signed in this period between the EU and UK this market will be settled for no."
Of course a no deal would be a huge gift to the SNP who will then get a clear majority at next years elections.
Any sane government would prioritize a deal but sanity left a long time ago .
I particularly like the one (from a fairly young person by the profile pic) saying (i) how can we be sure this is safe and isn't it being rushed and (ii) why are you giving it to the old people first, us youngsters need protecting NOW!
Remember, Trump is in the White House as President until January. No way will he not interfere. Then you have the various state governments - ranging from sensible to full eyes-bleeding-QAnon
Therefore the UK needs some continuation of current arrangements.
Therefore we need some sort of deal.
AKA "It's no good having aces in your pocket if you can't reach your pocket because you're over a barrel."
The only question left is whether Boris's need for a deal overcomes his fear of a deal before January 1 or afterwards.
We have a raft of settled arrangements that could be slid in place on 1st January as ad hoc arrangements in lieu of a "deal". Just do that and carry on talking.
To me, it seems natural to make it like three words as the capital letters imply: Bio - N - Tech, but merged together. Every time I hear it said on the TV or radio, though, it sounds like it's made by Beyonce's pharmaceutical division, or like Beyond-Tech dropping the D.
However, full membership of the EU is unlikely to happen for many years, if ever
Betfair's refusal to settle (yet) is actually understandable. We're not past safe harbour in terms of election challenges, in fact SCOTUS could rule Kelly's challenge to PA's result correct - Act 77 arguably did not have a PA constitutional amendment passed so is void.
I mean it makes the entire PA statehouse void too, as well as being the biggest power grab into both state legislatures and state courts ever - so I'd wager it unlikely to occur. There's also the issue of WI's "indefinitely confined" voters which could go somewhere.
I can't see any such constitutional issues with AZ, NV, GA and MI so even if those results were ruled void (Which is massively massively unlikely) Biden still has 276 electoral college votes and wins.
But we're not yet past safe harbour which should be the proper time to pay out on the presidency as beyond that point 'projected' electoral college votes are only in doubt by faithless electors - which would mean the likes of Stacey Abrams and Hillary Clinton casting a vote for Trump, again possible but at that point not only beyond all reasonable doubt but also outside Betfair's rules on faithless electors.
Where Betfair have shit the bed is by stating it will be the 14th and not the 8th that the markets will be decided - the above ambiguity regarding faithless electors is theoretically in play.
He should have either negotiated much harder with the EU or if he was never serious about renegotiating or considering leaving then he should have spoken to John Howard about how to arrange a referendum.
Comparing the way John Howard handled the republic referendum and the way David Cameron handled the Brexit one, with both leaders wanting a No vote, is a complete masterclass of difference.
Of course he might. We hold all the cards.
Nobody who lived through it will want to go through this again in decades. They'd probably rather go through Covid.
Biden 1.04
Democrats 1.04
Biden PV 1.03
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.05
Trump ECV 210-239 1.07
Biden ECV 300-329 1.07
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.06
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01
AZ Dem 1.06
GA Dem 1.06
MI Dem 1.05
NV Dem 1.05
PA Dem 1.05
WI Dem 1.06
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.13
Trump exit date 2021 1.09
In this, as in their response to the coronavirus, Taiwan leads the world.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1333916238695829505
That is the reason the UK was weak, not because we were out of the EEC. We had the Winter of Discontent and the IMF bailout after joining the EEC. It was Thatcherism that saved the UK not Europe.
If you are winning the game, you don't say your opponent is being unfair.
Only losers say that.
The reason Cameron lost was the same reason he almost lost Scotland, relying entirely on negative campaigning with no-one, least of all Cameron himself, making a positive case for membership of the EU.
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1334068836132401152
Time will tell who is right. You're as hubristic as Cameron if you can't even contemplate the idea that I might actually be right - I recognise that I might be wrong, are so arrogant that you can not contemplate the idea that you might be wrong and I might be right?
https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1334067497700560897?s=20
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1334068994345754625?s=20
https://twitter.com/EIDGeek/status/1333963632254865411
But future generations- who knows?
The idea that this decision- among all democratic decisions- is irreversible seems pretty dangerous.
People thought that liberal democracy had definitively triumphed in the late 1990's. They talked about "The End Of History".
Thinking your version of society has won the argument forever is pretty creepy, actually. It's certainly hubristic.
And hubris doesn't have a great track record of being followed by massive ongoing success.
Though the John Howard trick won him the referendum too and could have won Remain the referendum by allowing people to campaign against a specific proposal.
So basically Cameron stuffed up on three points.
- He made a big deal about renegotiating, then didn't bother to have any meaningful renegotiation.
- He campaigned for Remain without bothering to give any positive reasons as to why do so.
- He held the referendum without bothering to get Leavers to come up with a proposal first, John Howard style.
Basically he half-arsed and winged it because he hubristically felt he couldn't lose.Europe is a sideshow when it comes to that.
But its true, 100% true.
This is part of what I've long argued here that the UK out of the EU can be more nimble and agile than the sclerotic and slow EU. This is a perfect example and high profile but other things will add up that don't get the publicity.
Its a huge win but I wouldn't boast about it to put salt in the wounds or get Remain idiots turning into antivax idiots. Take the politics out of communications, even if Brexit did help facilitate it.
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Is it any wonder Remain lost? It's not even always keep tight hold of nurse but more like let go of nurse's hand once you've thought about it!
David Cameron really was our worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
We want them to bounceback absolutely. But there is no harm at all in being first in the queue.
I'm intensely relaxed about the uptake of the vaccine. Far too much attention gets given to nutters on the internet; they are a tiny minority of the population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9VNPMpfneA
Of course people will vote for something else once fed up but it will be wasted years and then take a long time and hard work to fix the damage. Better not to inflict that damage in the first place.
It just seems unnecessarily confrontational with the EU, from next month we're going to move from informal allies/enemies to formal allies once the trade deal is signed. We'd never make this same contrast with the US or Canada.