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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final tally of local by-election changes for 2013 sees the

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited December 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Final tally of local by-election changes for 2013 sees the Tories as the main losers

From Labour: Leashowe and Moreton East (Wirral), Earls Barton (Wellingborough), Disraeli (Wycombe), Arbury (Nuneaton and Bedworth)
From Liberal Democrat:

Read the full story here


Comments

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    First?
  • Second.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    I think everyone is too busy watching the cricket this morning. Come on England!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited December 2013
    MikeK said:

    First?

    Clearly the question mark indicates underlying uneasiness about Ukip's entire policy platform and their ability to attract anything other than marginal fruitloops, those of unsound mind and Manchester Utd supporters.

    This nervousness and instability also is a reflection of a complete surfeit of turkey and trimmings over the past few days rather than what should be the new British traditional immigrant ghoul-lash over Christmas served by one of the 29 million new restaurant waiters from Budapest and Bucharest.

    I rest my madeira glass M'Lud ....

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    Does go to support OGH's belief that the LibDems won't do as badly come 2015 as might be expected
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    I think everyone is too busy watching the cricket this morning. Come on England!

    Line and length ....

    To paraphrase my first experienced lady friend of some many decades ago ....

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited December 2013
    On the Europoll, UNS would give:-

    LAB 28 (+15)
    UKIP 20 (+7)
    CON 17 (-9)
    LD 1 (-10)
    GRN 1 (-1)
    SNP 2 (-)
    PC 1 (-)
    BNP 0 (-2)
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Cheers for the article, Mr. Hayfield. I do wonder how much can be read into it considering the Conservatives have far more seats to lose than anyone else and are in office.
  • An interesting, if predictably depressing, article on Syria and losing ancient, heritage here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25407119

    I agree with much of the gist, but this bit is utterly mad:
    "The same punishment should be handed out for the destruction of human cultural heritage and memory as for genocide."

    Destroying ancient buildings, books and so forth should be punished, but you can't compare it to genocide.
  • There's some unusually important polling in the Guardian today, let down by poor reporting of its findings:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/26/fury-mps-not-voting-poll

    Every politician who is apt to think that the public doesn't understand them should stop to consider whether the public understands them only too well.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Here's a phrase I never thought I'd see myself coming out with.

    There's a good front page article in the Guardian this morning. I completely agree with it. It's about the reasons for voter apathy.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/26/fury-mps-not-voting-poll
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    edited December 2013
    F1: Vettel really does have a British sense of humour, as he masterfully takes the piss. Apparently he's worried (after winning four titles in a row) that regulation changes might make the sport less competitive:
    http://www.espn.co.uk/redbull/motorsport/story/140333.html

    To be fair, 2010 and 2012 were close, but he walked to victory in 2011 and 2013.

    I wonder if that's reflecting a concern that Renault's engine might not be able to match the others. If Renault have the best engine then Vettel will enjoy a near effortless victory. If Ferrari have the best then Alonso will be challenged by Raikkonen. If Mercedes have the best (as some are saying) that would be good for spectators, as we'd see Rosberg and Hamilton fight for the title, McLaren resurgent and Hulkenberg/Perez with a boost to their hopes.

    Edited extra bit: http://www.espn.co.uk/fia/motorsport/story/140313.html

    Ecclestone wants someone else to take over the New Jersey Grand Prix. Hopefully, no-one will. We don't need another tedious street circuit, particularly in a country that already has a race (at probably the best new circuit there is).
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited December 2013
    Harry, mixing in Scotland's STV local by-election results wth Eng&Wal FPTP results is highly misleading. It is comparing apples with oranges.

    For example, Rutherglen South would, in Eng&Wal terms, be classified as LAB HOLD, not as Lab Gain from SNP:

    Rutherglen South by-election, 2013

    Labour 39.9% -3.9
    Lib Dem 29.5% +4.8
    SNP 21.0% -2.9
    Conservative & Unionist 3.8% -1.1
    UKIP 3.3% -
    Green 1.7% -
    Independent 0.9% -

    ie. an unspectacular Lab Hold, with a modest Lab to Lib Dem swing, yet you present it as a Lab Gain from SNP. There was even a small swing TO the SNP from Labour.

    You either have to explain that basic difference for readers, or else omit the Scottish results, just as you have omitted the Northern Ireland results.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited December 2013
    By my reckoning only two Scottish seats would classified as GAINS in Eng&Wal terms:

    Heldon and Laich, Moray IND Gain from SNP
    Govan, Glasgow LAB Gain from SNP

    Even then, the Govan result is misleading, as the SNP vote in 2012 was boosted because we had 3 candidates whereas Labour had only 2.

    So, Harry presents "Scottish Nationalists -6" when in reality it was -2.

    So, a terrific performace midterm for the governing party. Just compare to the Tories in England.
  • Mr. Dickson, how d'you see Scotland doing in the Six Nations?

    Last time they seemed pretty feisty, but (I think) in the Autumn/Winter internationals they seemed to get a bit of a beating.

    Wales are still at 5.5 for the Triple Crown. That seems a bit mad to me. Backed it (and tipped it) a month or two ago at those odds.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808

    Does go to support OGH's belief that the LibDems won't do as badly come 2015 as might be expected

    And interesting that the areas where they remain competitive are where Con is the main opposition. Suggests that in the Con/LD battlegrounds, tactical voting may continue.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Well done Harry for keeping a record of all these results. I cant see a note confirming how many by-elections there were? For example the Tories losing 30 seats compared to 50 held would be bad but if 300 were held it would be a remarkably good result for the party of government with an overwhelming number of council seats.

    As Stuart said, referring to Scottish seats is misleading. A Scottish council by-election is usually held for a seat by a candidate who did not win last time out but came 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and got elected under STV in the multi-ward system we now have.
  • By my reckoning only two Scottish seats would classified as GAINS in Eng&Wal terms:

    Heldon and Laich, Moray IND Gain from SNP
    Govan, Glasgow LAB Gain from SNP

    Even then, the Govan result is misleading, as the SNP vote in 2012 was boosted because we had 3 candidates whereas Labour had only 2.

    So, Harry presents "Scottish Nationalists -6" when in reality it was -2.

    So, a terrific performace midterm for the governing party. Just compare to the Tories in England.

    For the Conservative performance to have been worse, they'd have had to have lost more than 100% of the seats they defended.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    First?

    Clearly the question mark indicates underlying uneasiness about Ukip's entire policy platform and their ability to attract anything other than marginal fruitloops, those of unsound mind and Manchester Utd supporters.

    This nervousness and instability also is a reflection of a complete surfeit of turkey and trimmings over the past few days rather than what should be the new British traditional immigrant ghoul-lash over Christmas served by one of the 29 million new restaurant waiters from Budapest and Bucharest.

    I rest my madeira glass M'Lud ....

    Bollocks!!!
    But even with that epithet, a Happy New Year to you and yours, and all on PB, together with their families and friends.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Well done Harry for keeping a record of all these results. I cant see a note confirming how many by-elections there were? For example the Tories losing 30 seats compared to 50 held would be bad but if 300 were held it would be a remarkably good result for the party of government with an overwhelming number of council seats.

    As Stuart said, referring to Scottish seats is misleading. A Scottish council by-election is usually held for a seat by a candidate who did not win last time out but came 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and got elected under STV in the multi-ward system we now have.

    Total for 2013
    Conservatives defended 145 held 98 gained 17 lost 47 won 115
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited December 2013
    I wonder how many windmills(turbines) will have fallen or been put out of action, due to our weather of the last 7 day's?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/10524840/Councils-waste-millions-on-ineffective-wind-turbines-that-will-take-190-years-to-repay.html

    Clearly, wherever they stand or lay, they are costing us, literally, the earth.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    antifrank said:

    There's some unusually important polling in the Guardian today, let down by poor reporting of its findings:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/26/fury-mps-not-voting-poll

    Every politician who is apt to think that the public doesn't understand them should stop to consider whether the public understands them only too well.

    Asking people why they don't is not a good measure of why they don't vote.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Well done Harry for keeping a record of all these results. I cant see a note confirming how many by-elections there were? For example the Tories losing 30 seats compared to 50 held would be bad but if 300 were held it would be a remarkably good result for the party of government with an overwhelming number of council seats.

    As Stuart said, referring to Scottish seats is misleading. A Scottish council by-election is usually held for a seat by a candidate who did not win last time out but came 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and got elected under STV in the multi-ward system we now have.

    Total for 2013
    Conservatives defended 145 held 98 gained 17 lost 47 won 115
    For a governing party mid term, who up until 2010 had made huge gains in Local Elections to be net minus 30 in 145 by elections when we have the UKIP emergence is pretty good.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    currystar said:

    Well done Harry for keeping a record of all these results. I cant see a note confirming how many by-elections there were? For example the Tories losing 30 seats compared to 50 held would be bad but if 300 were held it would be a remarkably good result for the party of government with an overwhelming number of council seats.

    As Stuart said, referring to Scottish seats is misleading. A Scottish council by-election is usually held for a seat by a candidate who did not win last time out but came 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and got elected under STV in the multi-ward system we now have.

    Total for 2013
    Conservatives defended 145 held 98 gained 17 lost 47 won 115
    For a governing party mid term, who up until 2010 had made huge gains in Local Elections to be net minus 30 in 145 by elections when we have the UKIP emergence is pretty good.
    On the whole I do not disagree Full figures for other parties
    Labour defended 117 held 108 gained 30 lost 9 won 138
    Lib Dems defended 42 held 23 gained 15 lost 19 won 38
    UKIP defended 3 held 0 gained 15 lost 3 won 15
    Ind/Ratepayer defended 17 held 8 gained 16 lost 9 won 25
    SNP defended 6 held 0 gained 0 lost 6 won 0
    Plaid defended 1 held 1 gained 0 lost 0 won 1
    Greens defended 5 held 2 gained 1 lost 3 won 3
    Kidderminster Health and Liberals 1 gain each
    Eng Dems 1 loss

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    rcs1000 said:

    I think everyone is too busy watching the cricket this morning. Come on England!

    Vot is this zing you call cricket? Why would we watch garden insects making an irritating noise when we could be posting on pb?

    FPT flouridation - although it's mainly done in Anglo-Saxon countries, Germany has flourided salt instead, and France has water that is naturally fluorided anyway. In general most governments are keen to deliver it one way or another:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_fluoridation


  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The disengagement from politics by so many young people is worrying. Can we rely on people saying why they do not vote?

    I think it is in part that increasingly people do not see themselves as part of society, and therefore do not think it important to participate. Voting is a social act, in that to elect a government takes many votes collectively.
    Grandiose said:

    antifrank said:

    There's some unusually important polling in the Guardian today, let down by poor reporting of its findings:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/26/fury-mps-not-voting-poll

    Every politician who is apt to think that the public doesn't understand them should stop to consider whether the public understands them only too well.

    Asking people why they don't is not a good measure of why they don't vote.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    currystar said:

    Well done Harry for keeping a record of all these results. I cant see a note confirming how many by-elections there were? For example the Tories losing 30 seats compared to 50 held would be bad but if 300 were held it would be a remarkably good result for the party of government with an overwhelming number of council seats.

    As Stuart said, referring to Scottish seats is misleading. A Scottish council by-election is usually held for a seat by a candidate who did not win last time out but came 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and got elected under STV in the multi-ward system we now have.

    Total for 2013
    Conservatives defended 145 held 98 gained 17 lost 47 won 115
    For a governing party mid term, who up until 2010 had made huge gains in Local Elections to be net minus 30 in 145 by elections when we have the UKIP emergence is pretty good.
    On the whole I do not disagree Full figures for other parties
    Labour defended 117 held 108 gained 30 lost 9 won 138
    Lib Dems defended 42 held 23 gained 15 lost 19 won 38
    UKIP defended 3 held 0 gained 15 lost 3 won 15
    Ind/Ratepayer defended 17 held 8 gained 16 lost 9 won 25
    SNP defended 6 held 0 gained 0 lost 6 won 0
    Plaid defended 1 held 1 gained 0 lost 0 won 1
    Greens defended 5 held 2 gained 1 lost 3 won 3
    Kidderminster Health and Liberals 1 gain each
    Eng Dems 1 loss

    So UKIP have the opposite incumbency effect? Wherever they defend a seat they lose it. Exposure to the reality of a UKIP incumbent prompts a vote against.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    Really strange day. Woke up with no reason to be depressed about the cricket. Must find a use for the positivity engendered today and do some work.

    On the Guardian polling I think one of the major problems is that our so called national parties are so irrelevant in so much of the country. If you live in the south east your views on the merits of Labour's economic theories are really completely irrelevant and of course the same applies to tory supporters in Scotland and in northern English cities.

    There are simply too many safe seats where people feel powerless, disengaged and unpersuaded that their views are of any interest to the political class. Alienation and anger at the political class is an inevitable consequence. Politics was a lot healthier when our national parties were indeed one nation. I think older voters remember those days which is one of the reasons that they are more engaged.

    What to do about it? Maybe larger multi seat constituencies where all the major players get a prize? If UKIP are not a flash in the pan and England is moving to 4 party politics the current system is not fit for purpose.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Thanks, Harry ! WE needed a digest.

    Happy New Year !
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2013
    DavidL

    One of the alienating features of politics for me was the steady increase of party power over individuality.

    The rise of the party machine, the demand from media of unity and therefore uniformity has made politics and politicians sterile and irrelevant.

    The concept that a voter votes for a party and therefore agrees with every detail in the manifesto is risible.

    For me the party manifesto should cover the major national issues. Everything else is local and personal to the candidate.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RodCrosby said:

    On the Europoll, UNS would give:-

    LAB 28 (+15)
    UKIP 20 (+7)
    CON 17 (-9)
    LD 1 (-10)
    GRN 1 (-1)
    SNP 2 (-)
    PC 1 (-)
    BNP 0 (-2)

    First time I have seen Rod Crosby NOT predicting the Conservatives will sweep the board !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Good morning, everyone.

    Cheers for the article, Mr. Hayfield. I do wonder how much can be read into it considering the Conservatives have far more seats to lose than anyone else and are in office.

    Just as many they could have held !

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    How can anybody in the UK be enthused about voting for politicians here in the same way as they did in the past?

    The British Parliament is no longer sovereign in the same way as it was before European integration and governments are able to bind their successors far more than they ever used to be. Ho hum.

    And what's more, the current crop of politicians are very, very happy with that situation.
  • philiph said:

    DavidL

    One of the alienating features of politics for me was the steady increase of party power over individuality.

    The rise of the party machine, the demand from media of unity and therefore uniformity has made politics and politicians sterile and irrelevant.

    The concept that a voter votes for a party and therefore agrees with every detail in the manifesto is risible.

    For me the party manifesto should cover the major national issues. Everything else is local and personal to the candidate.

    This is my perennial bugbear. The parties have slowly accrued power over the decades to the point now where it makes a mockery of the concept of individual constituency representation. We then get the risible claims that we should change the voting system to make things fairer for the parties.

    In fact what we should be doing is rolling back the party system and severely curtailing their ability to influence, bribe and threaten their MPs. For me this means neutering the power of the whips and effectively banning the ability of party managers to force MPs to vote a particular way. Ideally we would see the threats and bribes used to influence votes become viewed in the same way as external parties bribing MPs or buying influence.

    MPs are elected to represent the best interests of their own constituents and any other influences on their votes should be viewed with the deepest suspicion.
  • DavidL said:

    Really strange day. Woke up with no reason to be depressed about the cricket. Must find a use for the positivity engendered today and do some work.

    On the Guardian polling I think one of the major problems is that our so called national parties are so irrelevant in so much of the country. If you live in the south east your views on the merits of Labour's economic theories are really completely irrelevant and of course the same applies to tory supporters in Scotland and in northern English cities.

    There are simply too many safe seats where people feel powerless, disengaged and unpersuaded that their views are of any interest to the political class. Alienation and anger at the political class is an inevitable consequence. Politics was a lot healthier when our national parties were indeed one nation. I think older voters remember those days which is one of the reasons that they are more engaged.

    What to do about it? Maybe larger multi seat constituencies where all the major players get a prize? If UKIP are not a flash in the pan and England is moving to 4 party politics the current system is not fit for purpose.

    No David, we should be reducing the power of the parties not increasing it. The party machines are the main cause of the alienation. Curtail their power and you will see far more involvement in politics by those (the electorate) who currently feel they come third in the pecking order after 'self' and 'party'.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Greater London will have 8 seats in the Euro elections. What percentage would Labour need to get 4 seats ? More then 37.5 or could they do with less ?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    DavidL

    One of the alienating features of politics for me was the steady increase of party power over individuality.

    The rise of the party machine, the demand from media of unity and therefore uniformity has made politics and politicians sterile and irrelevant.

    The concept that a voter votes for a party and therefore agrees with every detail in the manifesto is risible.

    For me the party manifesto should cover the major national issues. Everything else is local and personal to the candidate.

    This is my perennial bugbear. The parties have slowly accrued power over the decades to the point now where it makes a mockery of the concept of individual constituency representation. We then get the risible claims that we should change the voting system to make things fairer for the parties.

    In fact what we should be doing is rolling back the party system and severely curtailing their ability to influence, bribe and threaten their MPs. For me this means neutering the power of the whips and effectively banning the ability of party managers to force MPs to vote a particular way. Ideally we would see the threats and bribes used to influence votes become viewed in the same way as external parties bribing MPs or buying influence.

    MPs are elected to represent the best interests of their own constituents and any other influences on their votes should be viewed with the deepest suspicion.
    needless to say, I agree with that. It is why I always propose that we don't need a cap on donations to parties, but a cap on spending, by which we can limit their activity and influence.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Who wants to vote for somebody who says he can't stop unwanted people coming into his county, or he can't throw out someone who's a serious criminal or inciting hatred, because people outside the country won;t let him?

    Anything politicians do these days only serves to underline how powerless they are.

    Cameron's three month ban for claiming benefits for Romanians and Bulgarians.

    May's ludicrous contortions in getting Qatada out.

    Osborne's frantic efforts to stop people outside the country from slaughtering the goose that lays Britain's golden eggs.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited December 2013
    surbiton said:

    Greater London will have 8 seats in the Euro elections. What percentage would Labour need to get 4 seats ? More then 37.5 or could they do with less ?

    Basically, if Labour win >1.334 times as many votes as the second party and >4.001 times as many votes as the fourth party, they should win 4 seats.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It does look as if the LD may face euro oblivion. It is hard to have incumbency effect when few can name their MEP.

    It does seem that euroenthusiasts are less inclined to vote in these elections than europhobes, so I cannot see Labour doing that well. I think Mikes tip of the Tories coming top may well still be a good bet.
    surbiton said:

    RodCrosby said:

    On the Europoll, UNS would give:-

    LAB 28 (+15)
    UKIP 20 (+7)
    CON 17 (-9)
    LD 1 (-10)
    GRN 1 (-1)
    SNP 2 (-)
    PC 1 (-)
    BNP 0 (-2)

    First time I have seen Rod Crosby NOT predicting the Conservatives will sweep the board !
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    edited December 2013
    philiph said:

    DavidL

    One of the alienating features of politics for me was the steady increase of party power over individuality.

    The rise of the party machine, the demand from media of unity and therefore uniformity has made politics and politicians sterile and irrelevant.

    The concept that a voter votes for a party and therefore agrees with every detail in the manifesto is risible.

    For me the party manifesto should cover the major national issues. Everything else is local and personal to the candidate.

    Edit also in reply to @Richard_Tyndall

    I am not sure I agree with this. The purpose of a general election is to elect a government. A government should have a coherent and agreed policy program. Whilst I agree that this should not go as far as to squeeze out all individuality it is important that the party has an agreed position on the main points and that the candidate is undertaking to implement them.

    At the end of the day I think it makes my vote more meaningful, not less, if there is an agreed economic policy that I can vote for. The views of the individual candidates are not so important because they cannot deliver them anyway. It requires a majority and a consensus for the policy to be implemented.

    I would be open to other ideas that challenged the machine such as open primaries which might well do much to engage voters. It is indisputable that our politicians are being drawn from too narrow a class and have far too little experience of the real world. But a Parliament of 650 interesting mavericks who did not agree on anything would be no improvement, no improvement at all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    taffys said:

    Who wants to vote for somebody who says he can't stop unwanted people coming into his county, or he can't throw out someone who's a serious criminal or inciting hatred, because people outside the country won;t let him?

    Anything politicians do these days only serves to underline how powerless they are.

    Cameron's three month ban for claiming benefits for Romanians and Bulgarians.

    May's ludicrous contortions in getting Qatada out.

    Osborne's frantic efforts to stop people outside the country from slaughtering the goose that lays Britain's golden eggs.

    Politicians should be powerless. Sovereignty should be vested in the individual, not the government of the day.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Or, to put it another way, the situations where the government should be able to override the rights of individuals should be incredibly limited, and should only relate to specific harm against an individual.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited December 2013
    DavidL said:

    philiph said:

    DavidL

    One of the alienating features of politics for me was the steady increase of party power over individuality.

    The rise of the party machine, the demand from media of unity and therefore uniformity has made politics and politicians sterile and irrelevant.

    The concept that a voter votes for a party and therefore agrees with every detail in the manifesto is risible.

    For me the party manifesto should cover the major national issues. Everything else is local and personal to the candidate.

    Edit also in reply to @Richard_Tyndall

    I am not sure I agree with this. The purpose of a general election is to elect a government. A government should have a coherent and agreed policy program. Whilst I agree that this should not go as far as to squeeze out all individuality it is important that the party has an agreed position on the main points and that the candidate is undertaking to implement them.

    At the end of the day I think it makes my vote more meaningful, not less, if there is an agreed economic policy that I can vote for. The views of the individual candidates are not so important because they cannot deliver them anyway. It requires a majority and a consensus for the policy to be implemented.

    I would be open to other ideas that challenged the machine such as open primaries which might well do much to engage voters. It is indisputable that our politicians are being drawn from too narrow a class and have far too little experience of the real world. But a Parliament of 650 interesting mavericks who did not agree on anything would be no improvement, no improvement at all.
    DavidL

    I think you are inadvertently agreeing with me.

    A manifesto that sets out national issues would cover economic principles and direction.

    650 maverick mps is a fictitious fallacy. There would be two or three common views on most issues, with a smattering of added madness that would be irrelevant in votes in the house.
  • RandomRandom Posts: 107
    Not wishing to be too snippy, but isn't the chart accompanying this article a bit of a case of "lies, damn lies, and statistics"? What useful purpose does the "Others" category serve other than to offset Nationalist/Green/Independent losses against UKIP gains and thereby hide the fact that UKIP is easily the second best performing party after Labour and the only other one to be scoring gains?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    @random,

    Like any set of statistics, you can choose to read what fits best with your world view:

    So LibDems will conveniently ignore the fact they simply have few seats to lose (and still managed net losses)
    Labour voters will choose to forget that at this point in the cycle, they should be doing much, much better
    Ukippers won't notice the 100% loss rate in seats they are defending
    Etc.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,343
    DavidL said:

    Really strange day. Woke up with no reason to be depressed about the cricket. Must find a use for the positivity engendered today and do some work.

    On the Guardian polling I think one of the major problems is that our so called national parties are so irrelevant in so much of the country. If you live in the south east your views on the merits of Labour's economic theories are really completely irrelevant and of course the same applies to tory supporters in Scotland and in northern English cities.

    There are simply too many safe seats where people feel powerless, disengaged and unpersuaded that their views are of any interest to the political class. Alienation and anger at the political class is an inevitable consequence. Politics was a lot healthier when our national parties were indeed one nation. I think older voters remember those days which is one of the reasons that they are more engaged.

    What to do about it? Maybe larger multi seat constituencies where all the major players get a prize? If UKIP are not a flash in the pan and England is moving to 4 party politics the current system is not fit for purpose.

    The Tories are actually doing quite well in the Scottish Parliament, with representation roughly in proportion to their vote - thanks to a voting system (and indeed the existence of the Parliament itself), against whose genesis they thcreamed and thcreamed till they were sick, like Violet Bott. As a result, they managed to get some of their favourite policies such as more polis on the beat through horsetrading when the SNP was in a minority administration. But they also voted for the Edinburgh Trams, supporting a deliberate wrecking move by Labour and the LDs, which led to lost opportunities and deaths elsewhere in Scotland. Another irony is that it is their own favourite FPTP system that has led them to a degree of political extinction somewhere between the panda and the great auk in Scottish Westminster seats.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    DavidL

    Isn't the purpose of a general election to appoint a constituency MP? The collective of MPs are then empowered to appoint a government and the executive.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    edited December 2013
    philiph said:

    DavidL said:

    philiph said:

    DavidL

    One of the alienating features of politics for me was the steady increase of party power over individuality.

    The rise of the party machine, the demand from media of unity and therefore uniformity has made politics and politicians sterile and irrelevant.

    The concept that a voter votes for a party and therefore agrees with every detail in the manifesto is risible.

    For me the party manifesto should cover the major national issues. Everything else is local and personal to the candidate.

    Edit also in reply to @Richard_Tyndall

    I am not sure I agree with this. The purpose of a general election is to elect a government. A government should have a coherent and agreed policy program. Whilst I agree that this should not go as far as to squeeze out all individuality it is important that the party has an agreed position on the main points and that the candidate is undertaking to implement them.

    At the end of the day I think it makes my vote more meaningful, not less, if there is an agreed economic policy that I can vote for. The views of the individual candidates are not so important because they cannot deliver them anyway. It requires a majority and a consensus for the policy to be implemented.

    I would be open to other ideas that challenged the machine such as open primaries which might well do much to engage voters. It is indisputable that our politicians are being drawn from too narrow a class and have far too little experience of the real world. But a Parliament of 650 interesting mavericks who did not agree on anything would be no improvement, no improvement at all.
    DavidL

    I think you are inadvertently agreeing with me.

    A manifesto that sets out national issues would cover economic principles and direction.

    650 maverick mps is a fictitious fallacy. There would be two or three common views on most issues, with a smattering of added madness that would be irrelevant in votes in the house.
    You are right that neither of us are taking extreme views on this and the difference between us is one of degree and emphasis but I would go further than you on the manifesto. For example I think parties should have positions on HS2, new runways, student fees, membership of the EU, immigration policy etc etc. Economic policy is too obvious an area but MPs are powerless to influence any of these decisions individually or without a party structure to provide coherence.

    Taking the EU which has been such a problem for the tories as an example I think it is ok for the candidate to say that he or she will argue for greater reform or leaving or whatever but they should also undertake to comply with the agreed party position until that is changed. That way the public know what they are voting for.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    philiph said:

    DavidL

    Isn't the purpose of a general election to appoint a constituency MP? The collective of MPs are then empowered to appoint a government and the executive.

    In 1800-and-frozen-to-death, maybe...

    Not now with whipped parties, and national, simultaneous, presidential campaigns.
  • RandomRandom Posts: 107
    rcs1000 said:

    @random,

    Like any set of statistics, you can choose to read what fits best with your world view:

    So LibDems will conveniently ignore the fact they simply have few seats to lose (and still managed net losses)
    Labour voters will choose to forget that at this point in the cycle, they should be doing much, much better
    Ukippers won't notice the 100% loss rate in seats they are defending
    Etc.

    Indeed, and I think the success rate at defending seats is an interesting statistic in it's own right - the chart however was supposed to be measuring net gains, and the treatment of UKIP is therefore rather unfortunate.

    For the record, and going by the figures Mark Senior posted, the success rate in defences for the "major" parties is as follows -

    Labour - 92%
    Conservative - 68%
    LibDem - 55%

    Obvious conclusions are that Labour has most reasons to be happy pretty much regardless of the metric used and the party that's supposed to specialise in local council elections is in deep trouble. Oh, and if UKIP really do do best where they don't have a sitting candidate, then it's worth noting they start 2015 with 0 MPs...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Just as a bit of fun, if you put the Survation numbers into Electoral Calculus you get Labour 366, Conservative 215, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 10.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    It does look as if the LD may face euro oblivion. It is hard to have incumbency effect when few can name their MEP.

    It does seem that euroenthusiasts are less inclined to vote in these elections than europhobes, so I cannot see Labour doing that well. I think Mikes tip of the Tories coming top may well still be a good bet.

    surbiton said:

    RodCrosby said:

    On the Europoll, UNS would give:-

    LAB 28 (+15)
    UKIP 20 (+7)
    CON 17 (-9)
    LD 1 (-10)
    GRN 1 (-1)
    SNP 2 (-)
    PC 1 (-)
    BNP 0 (-2)

    First time I have seen Rod Crosby NOT predicting the Conservatives will sweep the board !
    It's interesting to see that PR can be just as vicious as FPTP is, once a party's support falls below a certain level.

    It's also interesting that the default position of the British electorate now seems to be to return a centre-right Eurosceptic majority to the EU Parliament.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    DavidL said:

    philiph said:

    DavidL

    One of the alienating features of politics for me was the steady increase of party power over individuality.

    The rise of the party machine, the demand from media of unity and therefore uniformity has made politics and politicians sterile and irrelevant.

    The concept that a voter votes for a party and therefore agrees with every detail in the manifesto is risible.

    For me the party manifesto should cover the major national issues. Everything else is local and personal to the candidate.

    Edit also in reply to @Richard_Tyndall

    I am not sure I agree with this. The purpose of a general election is to elect a government. A government should have a coherent and agreed policy program. Whilst I agree that this should not go as far as to squeeze out all individuality it is important that the party has an agreed position on the main points and that the candidate is undertaking to implement them.

    At the end of the day I think it makes my vote more meaningful, not less, if there is an agreed economic policy that I can vote for. The views of the individual candidates are not so important because they cannot deliver them anyway. It requires a majority and a consensus for the policy to be implemented.

    I would be open to other ideas that challenged the machine such as open primaries which might well do much to engage voters. It is indisputable that our politicians are being drawn from too narrow a class and have far too little experience of the real world. But a Parliament of 650 interesting mavericks who did not agree on anything would be no improvement, no improvement at all.
    you need a few that are not sheep and willing to stand up for their principles.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    saddened said:

    currystar said:

    Well done Harry for keeping a record of all these results. I cant see a note confirming how many by-elections there were? For example the Tories losing 30 seats compared to 50 held would be bad but if 300 were held it would be a remarkably good result for the party of government with an overwhelming number of council seats.

    As Stuart said, referring to Scottish seats is misleading. A Scottish council by-election is usually held for a seat by a candidate who did not win last time out but came 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and got elected under STV in the multi-ward system we now have.

    Total for 2013
    Conservatives defended 145 held 98 gained 17 lost 47 won 115
    For a governing party mid term, who up until 2010 had made huge gains in Local Elections to be net minus 30 in 145 by elections when we have the UKIP emergence is pretty good.
    On the whole I do not disagree Full figures for other parties
    Labour defended 117 held 108 gained 30 lost 9 won 138
    Lib Dems defended 42 held 23 gained 15 lost 19 won 38
    UKIP defended 3 held 0 gained 15 lost 3 won 15
    Ind/Ratepayer defended 17 held 8 gained 16 lost 9 won 25
    SNP defended 6 held 0 gained 0 lost 6 won 0
    Plaid defended 1 held 1 gained 0 lost 0 won 1
    Greens defended 5 held 2 gained 1 lost 3 won 3
    Kidderminster Health and Liberals 1 gain each
    Eng Dems 1 loss

    So UKIP have the opposite incumbency effect? Wherever they defend a seat they lose it. Exposure to the reality of a UKIP incumbent prompts a vote against.
    The UKIP vote share was actually hardly changed in those three by-elections. Narrow wins in May became narrow defeats in subsequent by-elections.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    edited December 2013
    rcs1000 said:

    Or, to put it another way, the situations where the government should be able to override the rights of individuals should be incredibly limited, and should only relate to specific harm against an individual.

    That is an extremely libertarian view Robert. I would not go so far. Societies lack coherence or unity unless they have shared views and principles on what is acceptable. Durkheim said: "Deviance affirms cultural values and norms. Any definition of virtue rests on an opposing idea of vice: There can be no good without evil and no justice without crime". (I love that last sentence, it really makes you think.)

    In simpler terms a society cannot exist without something to define itself against. Societies need to do this and politicians have to respect and reflect those choices. When they do not do so well we have the kind of alienation the Guardian was talking about.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sean_F said:

    It does look as if the LD may face euro oblivion. It is hard to have incumbency effect when few can name their MEP.

    It does seem that euroenthusiasts are less inclined to vote in these elections than europhobes, so I cannot see Labour doing that well. I think Mikes tip of the Tories coming top may well still be a good bet.

    surbiton said:

    RodCrosby said:

    On the Europoll, UNS would give:-

    LAB 28 (+15)
    UKIP 20 (+7)
    CON 17 (-9)
    LD 1 (-10)
    GRN 1 (-1)
    SNP 2 (-)
    PC 1 (-)
    BNP 0 (-2)

    First time I have seen Rod Crosby NOT predicting the Conservatives will sweep the board !
    It's interesting to see that PR can be just as vicious as FPTP is, once a party's support falls below a certain level.

    It's also interesting that the default position of the British electorate now seems to be to return a centre-right Eurosceptic majority to the EU Parliament.
    Depends on the version of "PR".

    PR is a benchmark, not a system...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    philiph said:

    DavidL

    One of the alienating features of politics for me was the steady increase of party power over individuality.

    The rise of the party machine, the demand from media of unity and therefore uniformity has made politics and politicians sterile and irrelevant.

    The concept that a voter votes for a party and therefore agrees with every detail in the manifesto is risible.

    For me the party manifesto should cover the major national issues. Everything else is local and personal to the candidate.

    Edit also in reply to @Richard_Tyndall

    I am not sure I agree with this. The purpose of a general election is to elect a government. A government should have a coherent and agreed policy program. Whilst I agree that this should not go as far as to squeeze out all individuality it is important that the party has an agreed position on the main points and that the candidate is undertaking to implement them.

    At the end of the day I think it makes my vote more meaningful, not less, if there is an agreed economic policy that I can vote for. The views of the individual candidates are not so important because they cannot deliver them anyway. It requires a majority and a consensus for the policy to be implemented.

    I would be open to other ideas that challenged the machine such as open primaries which might well do much to engage voters. It is indisputable that our politicians are being drawn from too narrow a class and have far too little experience of the real world. But a Parliament of 650 interesting mavericks who did not agree on anything would be no improvement, no improvement at all.
    you need a few that are not sheep and willing to stand up for their principles.
    Totally agree Malcolm. You always need a bit of ginger or there is no progress.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    DavidL said:


    That is an extremely libertarian view Robert. I would not go so far. Societies lack coherence or unity unless they have shared views and principles on what is acceptable. Durkheim said: "Deviance affirms cultural values and norms. Any definition of virtue rests on an opposing idea of vice: There can be no good without evil and no justice without crime". (I love that last sentence, it really makes you think.)

    In simpler terms a society cannot exist without something to define itself against. Societies need to do this and politicians have to respect and reflect those choices. When they do not do so well we have the kind of alienation the Guardian was talking about.

    I accept that; and I accept that my views will not be accepted by most. But I am determined to stand up for the ethical position that freedom of labour to move from country to country is an inherently good thing. (And bans on cinammon buns are clearly bad, too.) This board is dominated by people who think that it is right to seek to prevent people voluntary arrangements between people (such as a British business employing a Romanian worker.) My views is simply that governments should always err on the side of caution by doing less, than by doing more. I simply have a very high hurdle before I would allow the government to intervene.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Random said:

    Indeed, and I think the success rate at defending seats is an interesting statistic in it's own right - the chart however was supposed to be measuring net gains, and the treatment of UKIP is therefore rather unfortunate.

    For the record, and going by the figures Mark Senior posted, the success rate in defences for the "major" parties is as follows -

    Labour - 92%
    Conservative - 68%
    LibDem - 55%

    Obvious conclusions are that Labour has most reasons to be happy pretty much regardless of the metric used and the party that's supposed to specialise in local council elections is in deep trouble. Oh, and if UKIP really do do best where they don't have a sitting candidate, then it's worth noting they start 2015 with 0 MPs...

    I agree: that the LibDems continue to lose such a high proportion, and from a low base, should be extremely concerning for them.

    But it's also worth remembering that throughout this year, UKIP has outpolled the Libs by around 50% (say 15% for UKIP against 10% for the Libs). Yet, UKIP *won* only 15 seats, against 38 for the Libs.

    This shows how - currently - inefficiently spread the UKIP vote is. They're 50% higher in the polls, their activists are enthused, and yet they managed to win barely more than a third of the number of seats the Libs got. The danger for UKIP (as I think we all know) is they manage a 1983 scenario - but on 15% they might only get 1 or 2 (or even none) seats. If the Libs get the same vote, they might have 40 seats.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Sean_F said:

    saddened said:

    currystar said:

    Well done Harry for keeping a record of all these results. I cant see a note confirming how many by-elections there were? For example the Tories losing 30 seats compared to 50 held would be bad but if 300 were held it would be a remarkably good result for the party of government with an overwhelming number of council seats.

    As Stuart said, referring to Scottish seats is misleading. A Scottish council by-election is usually held for a seat by a candidate who did not win last time out but came 2nd, 3rd or even 4th and got elected under STV in the multi-ward system we now have.

    Total for 2013
    Conservatives defended 145 held 98 gained 17 lost 47 won 115
    For a governing party mid term, who up until 2010 had made huge gains in Local Elections to be net minus 30 in 145 by elections when we have the UKIP emergence is pretty good.
    On the whole I do not disagree Full figures for other parties
    Labour defended 117 held 108 gained 30 lost 9 won 138
    Lib Dems defended 42 held 23 gained 15 lost 19 won 38
    UKIP defended 3 held 0 gained 15 lost 3 won 15
    Ind/Ratepayer defended 17 held 8 gained 16 lost 9 won 25
    SNP defended 6 held 0 gained 0 lost 6 won 0
    Plaid defended 1 held 1 gained 0 lost 0 won 1
    Greens defended 5 held 2 gained 1 lost 3 won 3
    Kidderminster Health and Liberals 1 gain each
    Eng Dems 1 loss

    So UKIP have the opposite incumbency effect? Wherever they defend a seat they lose it. Exposure to the reality of a UKIP incumbent prompts a vote against.
    The UKIP vote share was actually hardly changed in those three by-elections. Narrow wins in May became narrow defeats in subsequent by-elections.
    So as I said, the reality of a UKIP incumbent could not keep the seat, even when only a few extra votes would have done it. Not very inspiring.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    saddened said:


    So as I said, the reality of a UKIP incumbent could not keep the seat, even when only a few extra votes would have done it. Not very inspiring.

    On my tombstone, I would like written:
    beware of extrapolation from small data-sets
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited December 2013
    ''This board is dominated by people who think that it is right to seek to prevent people voluntary arrangements between people (such as a British business employing a Romanian worker.''

    I think that's incorrect. Most people, even on here, support the free movement of workers. But the employer is not negotiating in good faith because he has the taxpayer on his side.
    In addition to the salary he is offering the employer can attract overseas workers with immediate access to a full suite of first world benefits as soon as they arrive (extremely well funded education for as many children as you like , free healthcare for all)

    When you think of it, its no wonder that our house prices are so high when we are so generous with our social provisions to all and sundry. I suppose you could argue that the one offsets the other.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    rcs1000 said:

    saddened said:


    So as I said, the reality of a UKIP incumbent could not keep the seat, even when only a few extra votes would have done it. Not very inspiring.

    On my tombstone, I would like written:
    beware of extrapolation from small data-sets
    But where would the fun be in that?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    taffys said:

    its no wonder that our house prices are so high when we are so generous with our social provisions to all and sundry. I suppose you could argue that the one offsets the other.

    Our problem with skilled emigration, would suggest not.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10258081/Two-million-quit-Britain-in-talent-drain.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    If the migrant worker had to fund their own families education, health insurance and housing then perhaps they would find the job less attractive. Free immigration and a welfare state do seem incompatible.
    taffys said:

    ''This board is dominated by people who think that it is right to seek to prevent people voluntary arrangements between people (such as a British business employing a Romanian worker.''

    I think that's incorrect. Most people, even on here, support the free movement of workers. But the employer is not negotiating in good faith because he has the taxpayer on his side.
    In addition to the salary he is offering the employer can attract overseas workers with immediate access to a full suite of first world benefits as soon as they arrive (extremely well funded education for as many children as you like , free healthcare for all)

    When you think of it, its no wonder that our house prices are so high when we are so generous with our social provisions to all and sundry. I suppose you could argue that the one offsets the other.

  • rcs1000 said:



    But I am determined to stand up for the ethical position that freedom of labour to move from country to country is an inherently good thing.

    Determined to stand up for a position which ultimately benefits people like yourself ?

    Hmmmm ....

    Now its what we all do to a greater or lesser extent but what you're doing is effectively no different to a low skilled worker opposing immigration.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    taffys said:

    In addition to the salary he is offering the employer can attract overseas workers with immediate access to a full suite of first world benefits as soon as they arrive (extremely well funded education for as many children as you like , free healthcare for all)

    Yes, that is a fair point.

    I am well aware that my utopian vision (which I shall not repeat), demands at the very least a significant rolling-back of the welfare state.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Is everyone as impressed as I am at the skill with which our Prime Minister has parted the waters in Yalding this morning?
  • rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    In addition to the salary he is offering the employer can attract overseas workers with immediate access to a full suite of first world benefits as soon as they arrive (extremely well funded education for as many children as you like , free healthcare for all)

    Yes, that is a fair point.

    I am well aware that my utopian vision (which I shall not repeat), demands at the very least a significant rolling-back of the welfare state.
    Was it Milton Friedman who said that you can either have a welfare state or free migration ?

    There's no doubt what 95% of British people would chose.



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:



    But I am determined to stand up for the ethical position that freedom of labour to move from country to country is an inherently good thing.

    Determined to stand up for a position which ultimately benefits people like yourself ?

    Hmmmm ....

    Now its what we all do to a greater or lesser extent but what you're doing is effectively no different to a low skilled worker opposing immigration.


    I think that is a fair point. However, this is a view I've had for a very long time, and my view has always been based on broad morals, rather than on economics.

    I would also point out that I have founded four or five companies, employing well over 100 people in the UK, and one of the attractions to creating a tech company in Shoreditch (the excellent PythonAnywhere or CrowdScores) is the fact that, like in Silicon Valley, you have the depth of tech resource that has come from all over Europe.

    The founder of PythonAnywhere has been offered jobs by Microsoft in Seattle, and many VC funded Silicon Valley start-ups. He will go where the opportunity is, and fortunately for this country, the opportunity is in the UK. If the area wasn't so full of great (young) developers, the European tech-hub would be somewhere else.

    Now, I know there is the 'oh, but we always want the smart people, it's the others we don't want' argument. But I think that's a terrible one: if your artist girlfriend can't come to London, you won't want to. And who knows what areas will be 'hot' in the future. As I've said before, the goverment should always err on the side of caution by doing less, not more. And adding a layer of beauracracy seems a bad idea.

    And yes, there is no doubt that increased competition will tend to lower wages. But it will tend to lower costs too. And that means more work for all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    taffys said:

    In addition to the salary he is offering the employer can attract overseas workers with immediate access to a full suite of first world benefits as soon as they arrive (extremely well funded education for as many children as you like , free healthcare for all)

    Yes, that is a fair point.

    I am well aware that my utopian vision (which I shall not repeat), demands at the very least a significant rolling-back of the welfare state.
    Was it Milton Friedman who said that you can either have a welfare state or free migration ?

    There's no doubt what 95% of British people would chose.



    How about we go for a compromise: nobody in the UK (no matter where they are born) is entitled to any benefits whatsoever until they have paid four years national insurance contributions, and we limit the free movement of labour to our neighbours in the EU?
  • rcs1000 said:



    And yes, there is no doubt that increased competition will tend to lower wages. But it will tend to lower costs too. And that means more work for all.

    It wont lower housing costs and that's a major factor in living costs and socioeconomic mobility.

    And I'm increasingly gviven to believing that this country can't support a higher population environmentally (we seem to alternate between floods and droughts with increasing rapidity) let alone on infrastructure and economically.

    Ultimately free migration is another factor in globalisation, the advantages of which massively accrue to the wealthy and advantaged on the 'pay eastern costs, charge western prices, pay monaco taxes' system.

    And I'm fully aware that I would be classed as 'wealthy and advantaged' by much of the world by the mere fortune of my birth. But its increasingly not the top 10% who are making the gains or even the top 1% but the top 1% of the top 1%.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Liar MPs ‏@LiarMPs

    MPs still pay £3m in salaries to family members | The Bureau of Investigative Journalism http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2011/09/07/mps-pay-3m-in-salaries-to-family-members/ … via @tbij
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited December 2013
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes, that is a fair point.

    I am well aware that my utopian vision (which I shall not repeat), demands at the very least a significant rolling-back of the welfare state.

    With view as such; I hope you enjoyed your Christmas merriment with Auntie Hortence. A time for reflection and sorrow is normally preserved for Easter....
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Random said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @random,

    Like any set of statistics, you can choose to read what fits best with your world view:

    So LibDems will conveniently ignore the fact they simply have few seats to lose (and still managed net losses)
    Labour voters will choose to forget that at this point in the cycle, they should be doing much, much better
    Ukippers won't notice the 100% loss rate in seats they are defending
    Etc.

    Indeed, and I think the success rate at defending seats is an interesting statistic in it's own right - the chart however was supposed to be measuring net gains, and the treatment of UKIP is therefore rather unfortunate.

    For the record, and going by the figures Mark Senior posted, the success rate in defences for the "major" parties is as follows -

    Labour - 92%
    Conservative - 68%
    LibDem - 55%

    Obvious conclusions are that Labour has most reasons to be happy pretty much regardless of the metric used and the party that's supposed to specialise in local council elections is in deep trouble. Oh, and if UKIP really do do best where they don't have a sitting candidate, then it's worth noting they start 2015 with 0 MPs...
    The percentage success rates are not particularly meaningful as Labour will be defending many safe seats with massive majorities in say Knowsley or Rotherham and the Conservatives similarly in Chelsea and Buckinghamshire .
This discussion has been closed.