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With just over a month to go punters still confident that there’ll be a UK-EU deal – politicalbettin

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  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,849
    edited November 2020

    Hmmm

    Astrazeneca will carry out additional trials of the Covid vaccine it has developed with Oxford University to shore up confidence over its effectiveness, the drugmaker’s chief executive said yesterday.

    The Oxford team, whose own trials suggest that the vaccine could be 90 per cent effective, said that the extra testing was not expected to slow an application for regulatory approval in Britain, which ministers believe could come before the end of the year.

    However, Pascal Soriat, Astrazeneca’s chief executive, suggested that data submitted to the UK regulator from trials in the UK and Brazil was unlikely to be sufficient to win regulatory clearance in the United States.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/astrazeneca-defends-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-as-disquiet-mounts-over-the-results-mf6t57rnr

    I'm expecting Brits to reject the AZ/Oxford jab and demand the Pfizer or Moderna jabs.

    I’m expecting them to wait for the published results before making any such decision.
    And if it’s then a choice between a slightly less effective vaccine, or waiting another six months, then it would probably not be a hard decision.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,287
    edited November 2020

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    “Grace & dignity” Fat Crofter facing legal action:

    https://twitter.com/grahamggrant/status/1331516141731254272?s=21

    Really?
    I mean the man is a total prat but jeez, surely the photographer has something better to do with his time and money.
    The clue is in the article. "When I told him lawyers had contacted me" - not the other way round.
    Bah, you made me read it now. The photographers lawyers should be ashamed of themselves.
    Watch out, you'll be chucked out of the of PB Yoon Union if you're not careful. Living in Scotland is already a black mark.
    Oh FFS change the record.
    Have you been appointed a moderator, or are you one them liberal bigots?

    Swinson not being PM, or indeed an MP, has obviously left its mark.

    "Obviously". So "obviously" I resigned from the Lib Dems almost exactly a year ago in despair about how she was running the GE campaign. I'm not a moderator so feel free to make your inaccurate rejoinders while I will feel equally free to continue to criticise your posts that constantly and reductively define people who belong to a differing political and national outlook to you in contemptuous terms. Okay? Good.
    Resigned from the LDs? Ooh, I could crush a grape.

    Perhaps raise the bar from go away and shut up in your 'criticisms', eh?
    Who is the moderator now? You suggested I was some sort of Swinson superfan so clearly I am supposed to accept that and not correct you? What did you expect? Once again, if you want to make inaccurate posts about other people and criticise their political and national identity in contemptuous terms like "Yoon" you have to qcccept that pushback is going to happen, just as you would pushback on someone who described your side similarly.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,842
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    You should have been here last night.

    Actually, it’s probably better that you weren’t.

    How is Miss Cyclefree Jr doing? Any chance of adopting @isam ‘s idea to give each drinker a £1 Mac and Cheese ready meal or some such?

    Hope she works something out anyway.
    Thanks for your good wishes (and those of others).

    She is going down the “nice sandwich” or a “lovely pizza slice” route on the 2 days when she does not do a full menu - a free dor drinkers on other days. Important to keep the place open for drinkers no matter what because if closed people will forget you and it takes effort to build the business back up again. Some customers who had booked for a table with their friends are now asking for two adjoining tables. I suspect a lot of customers/places will do that. Whether that will provide enough trade when the PM is explicitly telling people not to go out and then turning his back on those businesses faced with no customers is another matter.

    I’ve advised her - when taking bookings - to ask whether the booking is coming from a household, support bubble or a work meeting and marking that down so she has a record in case of any challenge.

    It will be a miracle if she or any of the other nice places around here survive this. There is a very good “wet” pub in the next town, with a great reputation and awards for its beers, which will be in deep trouble the longer this goes on. I don’t think the government has any idea of the harm it is causing by this stop/start, too little, too late, cheese-paring approach to everything.
    On the only occasion that I have been in a pub for drinks alone, we declared to the landlady that we were having a business meeting. Not possible on current rules though.

    Setting up bookings for tables of 2 in clusters might work.

    Is there any enforcement of the one household rule though? Surely you can only take people at their word?

    As all Leics is in Tier3, not applicable here.
    I`ve got Market Harborough one side of me (Tier 3) and Northampton the other (Tier 2). I know which one I`d feel safer in.
    Rutland is Tier2 and a number of lovely pubs.

    Not for me though.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    During the campaign I kept waiting for the Remain side to put out a broadcast showcasing a positive and optimistic view of Europe. Instead it was 100% fear.
    Yes, and I was quite critical of the Remain campaign for this on PB at the time.

    Indeed, the reason that Remain won in 1975 was because of positive campaigning about the many benefits of European integration.
    But also the devious genius of the "no downsides, only considerable upsides" narrative (and I know that quote was post-Referendum, but it encapsulates a common vibe of the campaign).

    The link between the annoying features of EU membership (not always getting exactly what we want, sometimes silly Eurorules) and the benefits (frictionless access to a huge market of rich people) were laughed off. The reality that you can only get the benefits by paying the costs was simply denied. And is still being denied.

    Once political debate gets that decadent, democracy is in trouble. It's why "the government should have made Vote Leave put up a concrete plan" wouldn't have worked. VL would have proposed a unicorn. Had the EU said "that's a unicorn", the response would have been "of course they're saying that now, but when the UK shows some bulldog spirit..."
    Because it's not a unicorn.

    Trade and integration have no reason whatsoever to be linked. The idea that there's only one form of Europe is the biggest unicorn of all. Europe has always been a la carte with a pile of fudge on the side and it is only Europhile extremists who say otherwise.

    image
    On your own chart, the UK will now be outside each of those groupings, having rejected EEA etc. That's not a la carte, that's sat outside in the rain, eating corned beef sandwiches and drinking lukewarm tea.
  • Options
    I don't know about you guys, but I've been doing some serious food stocking over the past couple of months. We're now filling up the 3rd freezer. It seems to me that there is a strong possibility of food supply disruptions, and I don't want to end up spending hours in a queue for essentials.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,842
    edited November 2020

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    It does indeed take two to tango. Men are just as responsible as women for broken homes and casual pregnancies.
    More responsible. 9 times out of 10 it's the man who's done a runner, leaving the woman to look after the kids.
    As we see with our PM, though not quite to nine yet I believe.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,994

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    During the campaign I kept waiting for the Remain side to put out a broadcast showcasing a positive and optimistic view of Europe. Instead it was 100% fear.
    Yes, and I was quite critical of the Remain campaign for this on PB at the time.

    Indeed, the reason that Remain won in 1975 was because of positive campaigning about the many benefits of European integration.
    But also the devious genius of the "no downsides, only considerable upsides" narrative (and I know that quote was post-Referendum, but it encapsulates a common vibe of the campaign).

    The link between the annoying features of EU membership (not always getting exactly what we want, sometimes silly Eurorules) and the benefits (frictionless access to a huge market of rich people) were laughed off. The reality that you can only get the benefits by paying the costs was simply denied. And is still being denied.

    Once political debate gets that decadent, democracy is in trouble. It's why "the government should have made Vote Leave put up a concrete plan" wouldn't have worked. VL would have proposed a unicorn. Had the EU said "that's a unicorn", the response would have been "of course they're saying that now, but when the UK shows some bulldog spirit..."
    Because it's not a unicorn.

    Trade and integration have no reason whatsoever to be linked. The idea that there's only one form of Europe is the biggest unicorn of all. Europe has always been a la carte with a pile of fudge on the side and it is only Europhile extremists who say otherwise.

    image
    On your own chart, the UK will now be outside each of those groupings, having rejected EEA etc. That's not a la carte, that's sat outside in the rain, eating corned beef sandwiches and drinking lukewarm tea.
    Like most other countries on the planet.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,287

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    During the campaign I kept waiting for the Remain side to put out a broadcast showcasing a positive and optimistic view of Europe. Instead it was 100% fear.
    Yes, and I was quite critical of the Remain campaign for this on PB at the time.

    Indeed, the reason that Remain won in 1975 was because of positive campaigning about the many benefits of European integration.
    But also the devious genius of the "no downsides, only considerable upsides" narrative (and I know that quote was post-Referendum, but it encapsulates a common vibe of the campaign).

    The link between the annoying features of EU membership (not always getting exactly what we want, sometimes silly Eurorules) and the benefits (frictionless access to a huge market of rich people) were laughed off. The reality that you can only get the benefits by paying the costs was simply denied. And is still being denied.

    Once political debate gets that decadent, democracy is in trouble. It's why "the government should have made Vote Leave put up a concrete plan" wouldn't have worked. VL would have proposed a unicorn. Had the EU said "that's a unicorn", the response would have been "of course they're saying that now, but when the UK shows some bulldog spirit..."
    Because it's not a unicorn.

    Trade and integration have no reason whatsoever to be linked. The idea that there's only one form of Europe is the biggest unicorn of all. Europe has always been a la carte with a pile of fudge on the side and it is only Europhile extremists who say otherwise.

    image
    On your own chart, the UK will now be outside each of those groupings, having rejected EEA etc. That's not a la carte, that's sat outside in the rain, eating corned beef sandwiches and drinking lukewarm tea.
    We'll still be in the Council of Europe, which is the ECHR montior essentially, until the Tories take us out of the ECHR.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,367

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    The problem is that the political classes in most countries in Europe (UK included) are fans of the post-national world. And forgot to bring the people with them on this, in many cases.

    Hence an aide to Cameron thinking aloud as to why he owed more of duty towards to the welfare of the people of the UK than anywhere else.

    The problem is that in a democracy, the voters start thinking that the politicians owe them something. As opposed to knowing their place and doing what they are told.

    But waiting until you educate/persuade the people of something is too much like hard work. Much easier to say "This is now the law".
    If the "post national world" is one where the nations of the world cooperate on post national problems - and I don't see another viable definition - this is precisely where we should be heading. There's really no alternative.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,078

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    It does indeed take two to tango. Men are just as responsible as women for broken homes and casual pregnancies.
    More responsible. 9 times out of 10 it's the man who's done a runner, leaving the woman to look after the kids.
    Men are also more likely to die young, whether by accident (inc. health) or design (suicide).

    I have a niece who, while at Uni, got into a minor scrape, together with two or three others from her Hall. One of the others was told that she was surprised at her, but not at my niece 'as she came from a broken home.' My sister, her mother, widowed when her daughter was about three was furious.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,106
    It’s much better for children to be brought up with separated parents than to be brought up in a scenario where their parents are together but there’s nothing but resentment, conflict, and ill will. Any child who has experienced such things will tell you that.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Hmmm

    Astrazeneca will carry out additional trials of the Covid vaccine it has developed with Oxford University to shore up confidence over its effectiveness, the drugmaker’s chief executive said yesterday.

    The Oxford team, whose own trials suggest that the vaccine could be 90 per cent effective, said that the extra testing was not expected to slow an application for regulatory approval in Britain, which ministers believe could come before the end of the year.

    However, Pascal Soriat, Astrazeneca’s chief executive, suggested that data submitted to the UK regulator from trials in the UK and Brazil was unlikely to be sufficient to win regulatory clearance in the United States.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/astrazeneca-defends-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-as-disquiet-mounts-over-the-results-mf6t57rnr

    I'm expecting Brits to reject the AZ/Oxford jab and demand the Pfizer or Moderna jabs.

    I’m expecting them to wait for the published results before making any such decision.
    And if it’s then a choice between a slightly less effective vaccine, or waiting another six months, then it would probably not be a hard decision.
    When asked about the "doubts & questions" on the Oxford vaccine yesterday Whitty remarked that the big picture is that it works and now its up to the regulators to do their job.

    I wonder who many COVIDiots will die/infect others "waiting (6 months? a year?) for the "better" (sic) vaccine"?
  • Options
    RH1992 said:



    I actually agree with you. I am learning German myself, but that's also a list of personal experiences and I can throw many of those back the other way.

    Not to be nosy, but what method are you using? I'm trying to learn German with Duolingo which is ok (and free of course) but has its limits. My partner had actually bought some evening classes for me with the Goethe Institut but they went pear shaped with the Covid; I'm wondering if their online courses might be worth investing in?
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,848

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    It does indeed take two to tango. Men are just as responsible as women for broken homes and casual pregnancies.
    More responsible. 9 times out of 10 it's the man who's done a runner, leaving the woman to look after the kids.
    Statistics dont bear you out women are more commonly the instigators of divorce

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/the-third-wave/201705/who-initiates-divorce-more-often

    As to kids family courts are biassed towards giving custody of kids to the woman

    And while there are certainly men who abandon their kids after divorce there are also a lot of men who find themselves blocked from contact with their kids by an ex making it difficult. I know several that just gave up after years of custody battles which granted them access where the ex wife just ignored the court orders and the courts wouldn't impose sanctions
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,078

    Selebian said:

    Best comment I've seen (Ars) on the AZ/Oxford weird dosing results with less vaccine (possibly) giving more effect:
    "Somewhere a homeopath is screaming "JUST KEEP ADDING MORE WATER"." :wink:

    A medical friend suggested that the dose thing may precipitate a bunch of trials for other vaccines - ones already in use. As in an other look at what the optimum dose really is.
    Judging by the way so many courses of pill last an exact number of weeks, I strongly suspect that little research is done on the optimum dose of most medicine (there are some obvious exceptions, like anaesthesia).
    Tablets, capsules and so on, designed for long term use are normally packed in 28's. That is, enough for 4 weeks. Antibiotics are normally packed in 7 day packs, because that's how long one is expected to have to take them.
    Paracetamol, ibuprofen and the like for irregular use are packed in 10's 30's or 100's.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    During the campaign I kept waiting for the Remain side to put out a broadcast showcasing a positive and optimistic view of Europe. Instead it was 100% fear.
    Yes, and I was quite critical of the Remain campaign for this on PB at the time.

    Indeed, the reason that Remain won in 1975 was because of positive campaigning about the many benefits of European integration.
    But also the devious genius of the "no downsides, only considerable upsides" narrative (and I know that quote was post-Referendum, but it encapsulates a common vibe of the campaign).

    The link between the annoying features of EU membership (not always getting exactly what we want, sometimes silly Eurorules) and the benefits (frictionless access to a huge market of rich people) were laughed off. The reality that you can only get the benefits by paying the costs was simply denied. And is still being denied.

    Once political debate gets that decadent, democracy is in trouble. It's why "the government should have made Vote Leave put up a concrete plan" wouldn't have worked. VL would have proposed a unicorn. Had the EU said "that's a unicorn", the response would have been "of course they're saying that now, but when the UK shows some bulldog spirit..."
    Because it's not a unicorn.

    Trade and integration have no reason whatsoever to be linked. The idea that there's only one form of Europe is the biggest unicorn of all. Europe has always been a la carte with a pile of fudge on the side and it is only Europhile extremists who say otherwise.

    image
    On your own chart, the UK will now be outside each of those groupings, having rejected EEA etc. That's not a la carte, that's sat outside in the rain, eating corned beef sandwiches and drinking lukewarm tea.
    Like most other countries on the planet.
    But they aren't in Europe and don't do half their trade with the EU, and many of them will actually have better trading arrangements with the EU than we will, especially if we leave without a deal.
  • Options
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    “Grace & dignity” Fat Crofter facing legal action:

    https://twitter.com/grahamggrant/status/1331516141731254272?s=21

    Really?
    I mean the man is a total prat but jeez, surely the photographer has something better to do with his time and money.
    The clue is in the article. "When I told him lawyers had contacted me" - not the other way round.
    Bah, you made me read it now. The photographers lawyers should be ashamed of themselves.
    Watch out, you'll be chucked out of the of PB Yoon Union if you're not careful. Living in Scotland is already a black mark.
    Oh FFS change the record.
    Have you been appointed a moderator, or are you one them liberal bigots?

    Swinson not being PM, or indeed an MP, has obviously left its mark.

    "Obviously". So "obviously" I resigned from the Lib Dems almost exactly a year ago in despair about how she was running the GE campaign. I'm not a moderator so feel free to make your inaccurate rejoinders while I will feel equally free to continue to criticise your posts that constantly and reductively define people who belong to a differing political and national outlook to you in contemptuous terms. Okay? Good.
    Resigned from the LDs? Ooh, I could crush a grape.

    Perhaps raise the bar from go away and shut up in your 'criticisms', eh?
    Who is the moderator now? You suggested I was some sort of Swinson superfan so clearly I am supposed to accept that and not correct you? What did you expect? Once again, if you want to make inaccurate posts about other people and criticise their political and national identity in contemptuous terms like "Yoon" you have to qcccept that pushback is going to happen, just as you would pushback on someone who described your side similarly.
    Cool, it's just that 'Oh FFS change the record' is a bit pish, particularly when it involves you barging in on an exchange that was in no way addressed to you.
    For the record I couldn't give a fuck how you or people like you describe my 'side'.
  • Options

    RH1992 said:



    I actually agree with you. I am learning German myself, but that's also a list of personal experiences and I can throw many of those back the other way.

    Not to be nosy, but what method are you using? I'm trying to learn German with Duolingo which is ok (and free of course) but has its limits. My partner had actually bought some evening classes for me with the Goethe Institut but they went pear shaped with the Covid; I'm wondering if their online courses might be worth investing in?
    I think it is incredibly difficult to learn a language when you don't actually need to use it in your everyday life. Kudos to those who do, but I found that it was only when I lived in Germany that I was really able to learn German properly. In my experience, the the language just didn't seem to "stick" when I wasn't actually using it in day-to-day life.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,287

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    “Grace & dignity” Fat Crofter facing legal action:

    https://twitter.com/grahamggrant/status/1331516141731254272?s=21

    Really?
    I mean the man is a total prat but jeez, surely the photographer has something better to do with his time and money.
    The clue is in the article. "When I told him lawyers had contacted me" - not the other way round.
    Bah, you made me read it now. The photographers lawyers should be ashamed of themselves.
    Watch out, you'll be chucked out of the of PB Yoon Union if you're not careful. Living in Scotland is already a black mark.
    Oh FFS change the record.
    Have you been appointed a moderator, or are you one them liberal bigots?

    Swinson not being PM, or indeed an MP, has obviously left its mark.

    "Obviously". So "obviously" I resigned from the Lib Dems almost exactly a year ago in despair about how she was running the GE campaign. I'm not a moderator so feel free to make your inaccurate rejoinders while I will feel equally free to continue to criticise your posts that constantly and reductively define people who belong to a differing political and national outlook to you in contemptuous terms. Okay? Good.
    Resigned from the LDs? Ooh, I could crush a grape.

    Perhaps raise the bar from go away and shut up in your 'criticisms', eh?
    Who is the moderator now? You suggested I was some sort of Swinson superfan so clearly I am supposed to accept that and not correct you? What did you expect? Once again, if you want to make inaccurate posts about other people and criticise their political and national identity in contemptuous terms like "Yoon" you have to qcccept that pushback is going to happen, just as you would pushback on someone who described your side similarly.
    Cool, it's just that 'Oh FFS change the record' is a bit pish, particularly when it involves you barging in on an exchange that was in no way addressed to you.
    For the record I couldn't give a fuck how you or people like you describe my 'side'.
    It's a public message board where you post messages that can be read by the...erm.. public. I'm not a unionist if that is what you are implying - it's a form of nationalism. I regard nationalism, of whatever stripe, as a "bad thing". Again, you just want to other anyone who disagrees with you - which is a very nationalist thing to do.
  • Options
    Pagan2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    It does indeed take two to tango. Men are just as responsible as women for broken homes and casual pregnancies.
    More responsible. 9 times out of 10 it's the man who's done a runner, leaving the woman to look after the kids.
    Statistics dont bear you out women are more commonly the instigators of divorce

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/the-third-wave/201705/who-initiates-divorce-more-often

    As to kids family courts are biassed towards giving custody of kids to the woman

    And while there are certainly men who abandon their kids after divorce there are also a lot of men who find themselves blocked from contact with their kids by an ex making it difficult. I know several that just gave up after years of custody battles which granted them access where the ex wife just ignored the court orders and the courts wouldn't impose sanctions
    My sister initiated divorce because of her husband's infidelity. She got custody of the kids because she was the one looking after the kids while her husband was playing around. I suspect that this scenario is not an uncommon one.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,994
    New thread
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,230
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    You should have been here last night.

    Actually, it’s probably better that you weren’t.

    How is Miss Cyclefree Jr doing? Any chance of adopting @isam ‘s idea to give each drinker a £1 Mac and Cheese ready meal or some such?

    Hope she works something out anyway.
    Thanks for your good wishes (and those of others).

    She is going down the “nice sandwich” or a “lovely pizza slice” route on the 2 days when she does not do a full menu - a free dor drinkers on other days. Important to keep the place open for drinkers no matter what because if closed people will forget you and it takes effort to build the business back up again. Some customers who had booked for a table with their friends are now asking for two adjoining tables. I suspect a lot of customers/places will do that. Whether that will provide enough trade when the PM is explicitly telling people not to go out and then turning his back on those businesses faced with no customers is another matter.

    I’ve advised her - when taking bookings - to ask whether the booking is coming from a household, support bubble or a work meeting and marking that down so she has a record in case of any challenge.

    It will be a miracle if she or any of the other nice places around here survive this. There is a very good “wet” pub in the next town, with a great reputation and awards for its beers, which will be in deep trouble the longer this goes on. I don’t think the government has any idea of the harm it is causing by this stop/start, too little, too late, cheese-paring approach to everything.
    On the only occasion that I have been in a pub for drinks alone, we declared to the landlady that we were having a business meeting. Not possible on current rules though.

    Setting up bookings for tables of 2 in clusters might work.

    Is there any enforcement of the one household rule though? Surely you can only take people at their word?

    That works for strangers. It doesn’t work when you know your customers. City centre pubs are better off in this regard than community pubs where everyone mostly knows everyone else.
  • Options

    RH1992 said:



    I actually agree with you. I am learning German myself, but that's also a list of personal experiences and I can throw many of those back the other way.

    Not to be nosy, but what method are you using? I'm trying to learn German with Duolingo which is ok (and free of course) but has its limits. My partner had actually bought some evening classes for me with the Goethe Institut but they went pear shaped with the Covid; I'm wondering if their online courses might be worth investing in?
    I think it is incredibly difficult to learn a language when you don't actually need to use it in your everyday life. Kudos to those who do, but I found that it was only when I lived in Germany that I was really able to learn German properly. In my experience, the the language just didn't seem to "stick" when I wasn't actually using it in day-to-day life.
    Yep, for me it's the conversational side that I feel is missing where you have to think quickly. My partner speaks reasonable German but I feel lockdown and us both wfh is not the best environment to introduce stilted dinner table conversation about die Suppe and mir das Salz geben!
  • Options
    I'm relatively confident about a Deal because a number of seemingly intractable problems have already been solved - like State Aid, and its enforcement, for example - and we're 95%+ of the way there. It's a question now of haggling on fish and maintaining level-playing alignment over the longer-term. There are gaps with [X] in them that need to be filled in, and regression clauses that need ironing out. Otherwise, it's there.

    That really should be solvable over the next few days. In terms of ratification it will certainly pass the HoC with Labour support (and even with their abstention). A deal with the UK outside of CU/SM and providing continuity of trade in energy, goods, aviation and data with no tariffs or quotas - even with some bureaucracy around it - I expect it to be enough for at least half of the ERG to back. So it can pass parliament and get royal assent inside a week to ten days.

    The same will happen on the EU side. They will make translation and ratification happen by 31st December, even if some provisional application is initially necessary.

    No-one is going to collapse the Deal having got this close with such minor stuff outstanding.
  • Options
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    “Grace & dignity” Fat Crofter facing legal action:

    https://twitter.com/grahamggrant/status/1331516141731254272?s=21

    Really?
    I mean the man is a total prat but jeez, surely the photographer has something better to do with his time and money.
    The clue is in the article. "When I told him lawyers had contacted me" - not the other way round.
    Bah, you made me read it now. The photographers lawyers should be ashamed of themselves.
    Watch out, you'll be chucked out of the of PB Yoon Union if you're not careful. Living in Scotland is already a black mark.
    Oh FFS change the record.
    Have you been appointed a moderator, or are you one them liberal bigots?

    Swinson not being PM, or indeed an MP, has obviously left its mark.

    "Obviously". So "obviously" I resigned from the Lib Dems almost exactly a year ago in despair about how she was running the GE campaign. I'm not a moderator so feel free to make your inaccurate rejoinders while I will feel equally free to continue to criticise your posts that constantly and reductively define people who belong to a differing political and national outlook to you in contemptuous terms. Okay? Good.
    Resigned from the LDs? Ooh, I could crush a grape.

    Perhaps raise the bar from go away and shut up in your 'criticisms', eh?
    Who is the moderator now? You suggested I was some sort of Swinson superfan so clearly I am supposed to accept that and not correct you? What did you expect? Once again, if you want to make inaccurate posts about other people and criticise their political and national identity in contemptuous terms like "Yoon" you have to qcccept that pushback is going to happen, just as you would pushback on someone who described your side similarly.
    Cool, it's just that 'Oh FFS change the record' is a bit pish, particularly when it involves you barging in on an exchange that was in no way addressed to you.
    For the record I couldn't give a fuck how you or people like you describe my 'side'.
    It's a public message board where you post messages that can be read by the...erm.. public. I'm not a unionist if that is what you are implying - it's a form of nationalism. I regard nationalism, of whatever stripe, as a "bad thing". Again, you just want to other anyone who disagrees with you - which is a very nationalist thing to do.
    Let's hope malc gets back to regular posting so you can stalk him instead.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,848

    Pagan2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    It does indeed take two to tango. Men are just as responsible as women for broken homes and casual pregnancies.
    More responsible. 9 times out of 10 it's the man who's done a runner, leaving the woman to look after the kids.
    Statistics dont bear you out women are more commonly the instigators of divorce

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/the-third-wave/201705/who-initiates-divorce-more-often

    As to kids family courts are biassed towards giving custody of kids to the woman

    And while there are certainly men who abandon their kids after divorce there are also a lot of men who find themselves blocked from contact with their kids by an ex making it difficult. I know several that just gave up after years of custody battles which granted them access where the ex wife just ignored the court orders and the courts wouldn't impose sanctions
    My sister initiated divorce because of her husband's infidelity. She got custody of the kids because she was the one looking after the kids while her husband was playing around. I suspect that this scenario is not an uncommon one.
    The point remains its not true that 9 times out of 10 the man has done a runner

    As to infidelity

    A 2017 study found that 57% of males and 54% of females admitted to committing infidelity in one or more of their relationships [4].

    from source
    https://www.globalinvestigations.co.uk/news/infidelity-statistics-uk-infographic/#:~:text=The percentage of married women,General Social Survey [2].
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    During the campaign I kept waiting for the Remain side to put out a broadcast showcasing a positive and optimistic view of Europe. Instead it was 100% fear.
    Yes, and I was quite critical of the Remain campaign for this on PB at the time.

    Indeed, the reason that Remain won in 1975 was because of positive campaigning about the many benefits of European integration.
    But also the devious genius of the "no downsides, only considerable upsides" narrative (and I know that quote was post-Referendum, but it encapsulates a common vibe of the campaign).

    The link between the annoying features of EU membership (not always getting exactly what we want, sometimes silly Eurorules) and the benefits (frictionless access to a huge market of rich people) were laughed off. The reality that you can only get the benefits by paying the costs was simply denied. And is still being denied.

    Once political debate gets that decadent, democracy is in trouble. It's why "the government should have made Vote Leave put up a concrete plan" wouldn't have worked. VL would have proposed a unicorn. Had the EU said "that's a unicorn", the response would have been "of course they're saying that now, but when the UK shows some bulldog spirit..."
    Because it's not a unicorn.

    Trade and integration have no reason whatsoever to be linked. The idea that there's only one form of Europe is the biggest unicorn of all. Europe has always been a la carte with a pile of fudge on the side and it is only Europhile extremists who say otherwise.

    image
    Phillip, I know you strongly believe that there's no coupling (or at least, there shouldn't be) between frictionless trade and integrated regulation. You are a proud libertarian, and that's fine. But it's also irrelevant. Because the UK isn't negotiating with you, it's negotiating with a different organisation, with different concerns and a different worldview. The EU believes there is such a coupling, and any UK-EU trade deal has to acknowledge that, or the deal won't happen.

    You brought up the idea of a la carte. It's a reasonable analogy. You choose what you want, the restaurant sets the price. The UK decides the degree and smoothness of access it wants, the EU says the degree of alignment they need to have that. There's space to haggle at the edge, but that's the big picture.

    And the restaurant doesn't have to serve you at all, if they don't think it's in their interests to. That'd their free, sovereign choice. And acknowledging that the other party has views that are likely to weigh heavily on the final answer doesn't make anyone a Europhile extremist, or criminally insane, or anything else.
  • Options

    Selebian said:

    Best comment I've seen (Ars) on the AZ/Oxford weird dosing results with less vaccine (possibly) giving more effect:
    "Somewhere a homeopath is screaming "JUST KEEP ADDING MORE WATER"." :wink:

    A medical friend suggested that the dose thing may precipitate a bunch of trials for other vaccines - ones already in use. As in an other look at what the optimum dose really is.
    Judging by the way so many courses of pill last an exact number of weeks, I strongly suspect that little research is done on the optimum dose of most medicine (there are some obvious exceptions, like anaesthesia).
    Tablets, capsules and so on, designed for long term use are normally packed in 28's. That is, enough for 4 weeks. Antibiotics are normally packed in 7 day packs, because that's how long one is expected to have to take them.
    Paracetamol, ibuprofen and the like for irregular use are packed in 10's 30's or 100's.
    It’s the antibiotic courses always being a week that raises my suspicions: how much testing of this has been done? Would some be better as five days or ten?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,501

    RH1992 said:



    I actually agree with you. I am learning German myself, but that's also a list of personal experiences and I can throw many of those back the other way.

    Not to be nosy, but what method are you using? I'm trying to learn German with Duolingo which is ok (and free of course) but has its limits. My partner had actually bought some evening classes for me with the Goethe Institut but they went pear shaped with the Covid; I'm wondering if their online courses might be worth investing in?
    I have tried all sorts with Italian but still don't think you can beat linguaphone for all round effectiveness. Each January they normally have a sale on their courses. Yabla is worth looking at for its wide range of videos, many with captions
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950

    RH1992 said:

    RH1992 said:

    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    If I was between 14 and 18 I would never forgive my parents generation for taking away the opportunity for me to live and work in any of 28 diverse and fascinating countries as easily as I can work in the UK for no reason other than not wanting them to be able to do the same over here.

    It's without merit. It's stark raving bonkers.

    That was the conversation I had pre-2016 with my EU-hating in laws.

    It genuinely - I mean genuinely - hadn`t occurred to them that restricting free movement unto the UK would mean that our free movement would be similarly restricted. Their attitudes had two clear strands 1) "why wouldn`t everyone welcome us Brits because we are awesome?" and 2) "I don`t care because I don`t want to visit the EU anyway".

    I suppose that is what is meant by British exceptionalism.
    1 is essentially true. Most popular nations for Britons emigrate to already include nations that require visas anyway.

    2 is irrelevant. Nobody requires a visa for visiting from Britons nor will they post Brexit. We won't require a visa for Europeans to visit either.
    While I'm in favour of free movement and have always been a remainer, it always seems tin eared when the FBPE Twitter lot bang on about free movement so loudly. It makes it seem like the borders are about to be shut on us forever.

    I agree that there's definitely going to be some added hurdles for the minority that go to study/work/live in Europe and maybe some teething problems. However, considering many Brits go to study/work/live in non-EU countries every year without incident, I just can't really see why this is such an issue for remainerland considering the small number of people this affects.
    I think it's a psychological feeling of opportunities being closed off and boundaries erected. Personally, it was never likely that I would move to an EU country for work, or to retire (although my grandparents, hardworking Tory voters of reasonable means, retired to Spain). But I liked the idea that I could.
    My kids are all learning German, it makes me very angry that it will be much harder for them to move there to work or study, although of course it will still be possible with enough extra paperwork/money. I have friends who have a place in Greece, they used to come and go as they pleased, spend months there at a time without a thought. I don't think that will be possible now, without extra paperwork. My brother's partner is French, they met at Uni in Scotland, she got a job there and has lived there most of her adult life. That may not have been possible under the forthcoming rules. I have two schoolfriends married to Spaniards. Those relationships may well have been impossible without freedom of movement. I could go on.
    For many people I know, freedom of movement meant something tangible, it opened up opportunities for them, enabled them to live the life they wanted to. Freedom. It's a beautiful word. Its removal is a tragedy for many people.
    I actually agree with you. I am learning German myself, but that's also a list of personal experiences and I can throw many of those back the other way.

    Looking at those for whom a holiday is often a big financial stretch, let alone travelling around Europe for months such as many of my extended family, they see people better off than them go on holiday and take advantage of free movement, and in return for that they see unfamiliar faces in their town doing jobs while their lives don't improve (rightly or wrongly).

    Hardcore Europhiles banging on about cheaper holidays and study abroad while small town Britain sees demographics changing before their eyes is not a vote winner, no matter how much I agree with freedom of movement.
    Yes I'm not trying to win a vote (that ship has sailed), just trying to explain why loss of freedom of movement is a big deal for many people. Of course I know that many other people thought otherwise, obviously. Personally I don't think it's good to run the country on the basis of the politics of envy. Making cosmopolitan people poorer doesn't enrich the lives of small town people - more likely the opposite. No doubt they will find some other group to vent their frustrations on.
    The issue with FOM as it affected the UK was very asymmetrical - small numbers of high-paid people left, and large numbers of low-paid people arrived.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,287

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    “Grace & dignity” Fat Crofter facing legal action:

    https://twitter.com/grahamggrant/status/1331516141731254272?s=21

    Really?
    I mean the man is a total prat but jeez, surely the photographer has something better to do with his time and money.
    The clue is in the article. "When I told him lawyers had contacted me" - not the other way round.
    Bah, you made me read it now. The photographers lawyers should be ashamed of themselves.
    Watch out, you'll be chucked out of the of PB Yoon Union if you're not careful. Living in Scotland is already a black mark.
    Oh FFS change the record.
    Have you been appointed a moderator, or are you one them liberal bigots?

    Swinson not being PM, or indeed an MP, has obviously left its mark.

    "Obviously". So "obviously" I resigned from the Lib Dems almost exactly a year ago in despair about how she was running the GE campaign. I'm not a moderator so feel free to make your inaccurate rejoinders while I will feel equally free to continue to criticise your posts that constantly and reductively define people who belong to a differing political and national outlook to you in contemptuous terms. Okay? Good.
    Resigned from the LDs? Ooh, I could crush a grape.

    Perhaps raise the bar from go away and shut up in your 'criticisms', eh?
    Who is the moderator now? You suggested I was some sort of Swinson superfan so clearly I am supposed to accept that and not correct you? What did you expect? Once again, if you want to make inaccurate posts about other people and criticise their political and national identity in contemptuous terms like "Yoon" you have to qcccept that pushback is going to happen, just as you would pushback on someone who described your side similarly.
    Cool, it's just that 'Oh FFS change the record' is a bit pish, particularly when it involves you barging in on an exchange that was in no way addressed to you.
    For the record I couldn't give a fuck how you or people like you describe my 'side'.
    It's a public message board where you post messages that can be read by the...erm.. public. I'm not a unionist if that is what you are implying - it's a form of nationalism. I regard nationalism, of whatever stripe, as a "bad thing". Again, you just want to other anyone who disagrees with you - which is a very nationalist thing to do.
    Let's hope malc gets back to regular posting so you can stalk him instead.
    "Stalk"?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    You should have been here last night.

    Actually, it’s probably better that you weren’t.

    How is Miss Cyclefree Jr doing? Any chance of adopting @isam ‘s idea to give each drinker a £1 Mac and Cheese ready meal or some such?

    Hope she works something out anyway.
    Thanks for your good wishes (and those of others).

    She is going down the “nice sandwich” or a “lovely pizza slice” route on the 2 days when she does not do a full menu - a free dor drinkers on other days. Important to keep the place open for drinkers no matter what because if closed people will forget you and it takes effort to build the business back up again. Some customers who had booked for a table with their friends are now asking for two adjoining tables. I suspect a lot of customers/places will do that. Whether that will provide enough trade when the PM is explicitly telling people not to go out and then turning his back on those businesses faced with no customers is another matter.

    I’ve advised her - when taking bookings - to ask whether the booking is coming from a household, support bubble or a work meeting and marking that down so she has a record in case of any challenge.

    It will be a miracle if she or any of the other nice places around here survive this. There is a very good “wet” pub in the next town, with a great reputation and awards for its beers, which will be in deep trouble the longer this goes on. I don’t think the government has any idea of the harm it is causing by this stop/start, too little, too late, cheese-paring approach to everything.
    Best of luck to your daughter and her pub, through what must be a very stressful time.

    One question that I don’t think has been mentioned before, has she tried to reach out to her landlord? Banks are being encouraged by government to give mortgage holidays to business premises struggling to make rent.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,163
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    You should have been here last night.

    Actually, it’s probably better that you weren’t.

    How is Miss Cyclefree Jr doing? Any chance of adopting @isam ‘s idea to give each drinker a £1 Mac and Cheese ready meal or some such?

    Hope she works something out anyway.
    Thanks for your good wishes (and those of others).

    She is going down the “nice sandwich” or a “lovely pizza slice” route on the 2 days when she does not do a full menu - a free dor drinkers on other days. Important to keep the place open for drinkers no matter what because if closed people will forget you and it takes effort to build the business back up again. Some customers who had booked for a table with their friends are now asking for two adjoining tables. I suspect a lot of customers/places will do that. Whether that will provide enough trade when the PM is explicitly telling people not to go out and then turning his back on those businesses faced with no customers is another matter.

    I’ve advised her - when taking bookings - to ask whether the booking is coming from a household, support bubble or a work meeting and marking that down so she has a record in case of any challenge.

    It will be a miracle if she or any of the other nice places around here survive this. There is a very good “wet” pub in the next town, with a great reputation and awards for its beers, which will be in deep trouble the longer this goes on. I don’t think the government has any idea of the harm it is causing by this stop/start, too little, too late, cheese-paring approach to everything.
    On the only occasion that I have been in a pub for drinks alone, we declared to the landlady that we were having a business meeting. Not possible on current rules though.

    Setting up bookings for tables of 2 in clusters might work.

    Is there any enforcement of the one household rule though? Surely you can only take people at their word?

    As all Leics is in Tier3, not applicable here.
    I`ve got Market Harborough one side of me (Tier 3) and Northampton the other (Tier 2). I know which one I`d feel safer in.
    Rutland is Tier2 and a number of lovely pubs.

    Not for me though.
    Can't you just go to Rutland to visit a pub?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950

    DougSeal said:

    RH1992 said:

    RH1992 said:

    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    If I was between 14 and 18 I would never forgive my parents generation for taking away the opportunity for me to live and work in any of 28 diverse and fascinating countries as easily as I can work in the UK for no reason other than not wanting them to be able to do the same over here.

    It's without merit. It's stark raving bonkers.

    That was the conversation I had pre-2016 with my EU-hating in laws.

    It genuinely - I mean genuinely - hadn`t occurred to them that restricting free movement unto the UK would mean that our free movement would be similarly restricted. Their attitudes had two clear strands 1) "why wouldn`t everyone welcome us Brits because we are awesome?" and 2) "I don`t care because I don`t want to visit the EU anyway".

    I suppose that is what is meant by British exceptionalism.
    1 is essentially true. Most popular nations for Britons emigrate to already include nations that require visas anyway.

    2 is irrelevant. Nobody requires a visa for visiting from Britons nor will they post Brexit. We won't require a visa for Europeans to visit either.
    While I'm in favour of free movement and have always been a remainer, it always seems tin eared when the FBPE Twitter lot bang on about free movement so loudly. It makes it seem like the borders are about to be shut on us forever.

    I agree that there's definitely going to be some added hurdles for the minority that go to study/work/live in Europe and maybe some teething problems. However, considering many Brits go to study/work/live in non-EU countries every year without incident, I just can't really see why this is such an issue for remainerland considering the small number of people this affects.
    I think it's a psychological feeling of opportunities being closed off and boundaries erected. Personally, it was never likely that I would move to an EU country for work, or to retire (although my grandparents, hardworking Tory voters of reasonable means, retired to Spain). But I liked the idea that I could.
    My kids are all learning German, it makes me very angry that it will be much harder for them to move there to work or study, although of course it will still be possible with enough extra paperwork/money. I have friends who have a place in Greece, they used to come and go as they pleased, spend months there at a time without a thought. I don't think that will be possible now, without extra paperwork. My brother's partner is French, they met at Uni in Scotland, she got a job there and has lived there most of her adult life. That may not have been possible under the forthcoming rules. I have two schoolfriends married to Spaniards. Those relationships may well have been impossible without freedom of movement. I could go on.
    For many people I know, freedom of movement meant something tangible, it opened up opportunities for them, enabled them to live the life they wanted to. Freedom. It's a beautiful word. Its removal is a tragedy for many people.
    I actually agree with you. I am learning German myself, but that's also a list of personal experiences and I can throw many of those back the other way.

    Looking at those for whom a holiday is often a big financial stretch, let alone travelling around Europe for months such as many of my extended family, they see people better off than them go on holiday and take advantage of free movement, and in return for that they see unfamiliar faces in their town doing jobs while their lives don't improve (rightly or wrongly).

    Hardcore Europhiles banging on about cheaper holidays and study abroad while small town Britain sees demographics changing before their eyes is not a vote winner, no matter how much I agree with freedom of movement.
    The worst one I had was a discussion in the pub after work in about 2014 when we were discussing the Rochester by-election and the upward march of UKIP and a colleague in the banking team said "don't these people know what will happen to our passporting rights!". I am sure that banging on about the inconveience to the City to the residents of Mansfield and Thanet would have swung it right our way.
    The one that made me groan was a factory owner on Radio 4 (I think it was) declaring "A labour shortage would mean wages would rise!"

    The way it was said, the accent and the tone. The VictorianMineOwner vibe was very strong.
    That was also Stuart Rose on the first day of the Remain campaign. He was supposed to be leading said campaign, and was immediately dropped for saying the worst thing about Brexit would be wages rising for the low paid. His commendable honesty generated a million new Leave votes overnight.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    During the campaign I kept waiting for the Remain side to put out a broadcast showcasing a positive and optimistic view of Europe. Instead it was 100% fear.
    Yes, and I was quite critical of the Remain campaign for this on PB at the time.

    Indeed, the reason that Remain won in 1975 was because of positive campaigning about the many benefits of European integration.
    But also the devious genius of the "no downsides, only considerable upsides" narrative (and I know that quote was post-Referendum, but it encapsulates a common vibe of the campaign).

    The link between the annoying features of EU membership (not always getting exactly what we want, sometimes silly Eurorules) and the benefits (frictionless access to a huge market of rich people) were laughed off. The reality that you can only get the benefits by paying the costs was simply denied. And is still being denied.

    Once political debate gets that decadent, democracy is in trouble. It's why "the government should have made Vote Leave put up a concrete plan" wouldn't have worked. VL would have proposed a unicorn. Had the EU said "that's a unicorn", the response would have been "of course they're saying that now, but when the UK shows some bulldog spirit..."
    Because it's not a unicorn.

    Trade and integration have no reason whatsoever to be linked. The idea that there's only one form of Europe is the biggest unicorn of all. Europe has always been a la carte with a pile of fudge on the side and it is only Europhile extremists who say otherwise.

    image
    Out of date diagram! Regarding the UK!
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    DougSeal said:

    RH1992 said:

    RH1992 said:

    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    If I was between 14 and 18 I would never forgive my parents generation for taking away the opportunity for me to live and work in any of 28 diverse and fascinating countries as easily as I can work in the UK for no reason other than not wanting them to be able to do the same over here.

    It's without merit. It's stark raving bonkers.

    That was the conversation I had pre-2016 with my EU-hating in laws.

    It genuinely - I mean genuinely - hadn`t occurred to them that restricting free movement unto the UK would mean that our free movement would be similarly restricted. Their attitudes had two clear strands 1) "why wouldn`t everyone welcome us Brits because we are awesome?" and 2) "I don`t care because I don`t want to visit the EU anyway".

    I suppose that is what is meant by British exceptionalism.
    1 is essentially true. Most popular nations for Britons emigrate to already include nations that require visas anyway.

    2 is irrelevant. Nobody requires a visa for visiting from Britons nor will they post Brexit. We won't require a visa for Europeans to visit either.
    While I'm in favour of free movement and have always been a remainer, it always seems tin eared when the FBPE Twitter lot bang on about free movement so loudly. It makes it seem like the borders are about to be shut on us forever.

    I agree that there's definitely going to be some added hurdles for the minority that go to study/work/live in Europe and maybe some teething problems. However, considering many Brits go to study/work/live in non-EU countries every year without incident, I just can't really see why this is such an issue for remainerland considering the small number of people this affects.
    I think it's a psychological feeling of opportunities being closed off and boundaries erected. Personally, it was never likely that I would move to an EU country for work, or to retire (although my grandparents, hardworking Tory voters of reasonable means, retired to Spain). But I liked the idea that I could.
    My kids are all learning German, it makes me very angry that it will be much harder for them to move there to work or study, although of course it will still be possible with enough extra paperwork/money. I have friends who have a place in Greece, they used to come and go as they pleased, spend months there at a time without a thought. I don't think that will be possible now, without extra paperwork. My brother's partner is French, they met at Uni in Scotland, she got a job there and has lived there most of her adult life. That may not have been possible under the forthcoming rules. I have two schoolfriends married to Spaniards. Those relationships may well have been impossible without freedom of movement. I could go on.
    For many people I know, freedom of movement meant something tangible, it opened up opportunities for them, enabled them to live the life they wanted to. Freedom. It's a beautiful word. Its removal is a tragedy for many people.
    I actually agree with you. I am learning German myself, but that's also a list of personal experiences and I can throw many of those back the other way.

    Looking at those for whom a holiday is often a big financial stretch, let alone travelling around Europe for months such as many of my extended family, they see people better off than them go on holiday and take advantage of free movement, and in return for that they see unfamiliar faces in their town doing jobs while their lives don't improve (rightly or wrongly).

    Hardcore Europhiles banging on about cheaper holidays and study abroad while small town Britain sees demographics changing before their eyes is not a vote winner, no matter how much I agree with freedom of movement.
    The worst one I had was a discussion in the pub after work in about 2014 when we were discussing the Rochester by-election and the upward march of UKIP and a colleague in the banking team said "don't these people know what will happen to our passporting rights!". I am sure that banging on about the inconveience to the City to the residents of Mansfield and Thanet would have swung it right our way.
    The one that made me groan was a factory owner on Radio 4 (I think it was) declaring "A labour shortage would mean wages would rise!"

    The way it was said, the accent and the tone. The VictorianMineOwner vibe was very strong.
    That was also Stuart Rose on the first day of the Remain campaign. He was supposed to be leading said campaign, and was immediately dropped for saying the worst thing about Brexit would be wages rising for the low paid. His commendable honesty generated a million new Leave votes overnight.
    I think that was just another piece of Boris Brexit fake news, along with the Churchill bust and World War III.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/lord-stuart-rose-misquoted-post-eu-brexit-wage-increases
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,950
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I love the way a discussion about changes in sexual mores and their possible consequences focuses on whether women should have sex and not at all on men’s responsibilities for the consequences of their actions.

    Some things never change it seems.

    You should have been here last night.

    Actually, it’s probably better that you weren’t.

    How is Miss Cyclefree Jr doing? Any chance of adopting @isam ‘s idea to give each drinker a £1 Mac and Cheese ready meal or some such?

    Hope she works something out anyway.
    Thanks for your good wishes (and those of others).

    She is going down the “nice sandwich” or a “lovely pizza slice” route on the 2 days when she does not do a full menu - a free dor drinkers on other days. Important to keep the place open for drinkers no matter what because if closed people will forget you and it takes effort to build the business back up again. Some customers who had booked for a table with their friends are now asking for two adjoining tables. I suspect a lot of customers/places will do that. Whether that will provide enough trade when the PM is explicitly telling people not to go out and then turning his back on those businesses faced with no customers is another matter.

    I’ve advised her - when taking bookings - to ask whether the booking is coming from a household, support bubble or a work meeting and marking that down so she has a record in case of any challenge.

    It will be a miracle if she or any of the other nice places around here survive this. There is a very good “wet” pub in the next town, with a great reputation and awards for its beers, which will be in deep trouble the longer this goes on. I don’t think the government has any idea of the harm it is causing by this stop/start, too little, too late, cheese-paring approach to everything.
    On the only occasion that I have been in a pub for drinks alone, we declared to the landlady that we were having a business meeting. Not possible on current rules though.

    Setting up bookings for tables of 2 in clusters might work.

    Is there any enforcement of the one household rule though? Surely you can only take people at their word?

    As all Leics is in Tier3, not applicable here.
    I`ve got Market Harborough one side of me (Tier 3) and Northampton the other (Tier 2). I know which one I`d feel safer in.
    Rutland is Tier2 and a number of lovely pubs.

    Not for me though.
    My parents (70 and 73) are in Rutland. They were happy to sit outside at the pub in Uppingham during the summer, but aren’t going to sit inside during the winter.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    I'm relatively confident about a Deal because a number of seemingly intractable problems have already been solved - like State Aid, and its enforcement, for example - and we're 95%+ of the way there. It's a question now of haggling on fish and maintaining level-playing alignment over the longer-term. There are gaps with [X] in them that need to be filled in, and regression clauses that need ironing out. Otherwise, it's there.

    That really should be solvable over the next few days. In terms of ratification it will certainly pass the HoC with Labour support (and even with their abstention). A deal with the UK outside of CU/SM and providing continuity of trade in energy, goods, aviation and data with no tariffs or quotas - even with some bureaucracy around it - I expect it to be enough for at least half of the ERG to back. So it can pass parliament and get royal assent inside a week to ten days.

    The same will happen on the EU side. They will make translation and ratification happen by 31st December, even if some provisional application is initially necessary.

    No-one is going to collapse the Deal having got this close with such minor stuff outstanding.

    Level playing field is not minor. It is absolutely at the centre of Brexit.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,154

    Selebian said:

    Best comment I've seen (Ars) on the AZ/Oxford weird dosing results with less vaccine (possibly) giving more effect:
    "Somewhere a homeopath is screaming "JUST KEEP ADDING MORE WATER"." :wink:

    A medical friend suggested that the dose thing may precipitate a bunch of trials for other vaccines - ones already in use. As in an other look at what the optimum dose really is.
    You might end up needing a lower doseage. The price won't be reducing though.....
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    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    During the campaign I kept waiting for the Remain side to put out a broadcast showcasing a positive and optimistic view of Europe. Instead it was 100% fear.
    Yes, and I was quite critical of the Remain campaign for this on PB at the time.

    Indeed, the reason that Remain won in 1975 was because of positive campaigning about the many benefits of European integration.
    But also the devious genius of the "no downsides, only considerable upsides" narrative (and I know that quote was post-Referendum, but it encapsulates a common vibe of the campaign).

    The link between the annoying features of EU membership (not always getting exactly what we want, sometimes silly Eurorules) and the benefits (frictionless access to a huge market of rich people) were laughed off. The reality that you can only get the benefits by paying the costs was simply denied. And is still being denied.

    Once political debate gets that decadent, democracy is in trouble. It's why "the government should have made Vote Leave put up a concrete plan" wouldn't have worked. VL would have proposed a unicorn. Had the EU said "that's a unicorn", the response would have been "of course they're saying that now, but when the UK shows some bulldog spirit..."
    Because it's not a unicorn.

    Trade and integration have no reason whatsoever to be linked. The idea that there's only one form of Europe is the biggest unicorn of all. Europe has always been a la carte with a pile of fudge on the side and it is only Europhile extremists who say otherwise.

    image
    On your own chart, the UK will now be outside each of those groupings, having rejected EEA etc. That's not a la carte, that's sat outside in the rain, eating corned beef sandwiches and drinking lukewarm tea.
    No. We will be in a new circle. 🤦🏻‍♂️

    There is no reason to say these circles are the only plausible ones. New circles get created for what countries need.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,287

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Mr. Boy, the psychological aspect is interesting. It's somewhat akin to identity, and the Remain side, not only in the campaign but for years, utterly failed on that front.

    The focus on fear of the alternative coupled with denigrating the people (not the ideas) of the other side turned what should've been a win at a canter into a shock defeat.

    Looking forward, those keen on the EU would be advised to stop treating sceptics with contempt and focus on building a positive economic and psychological view of the EU.

    On migration: I've said this before but politicians should've had a better grip on integration.

    During the campaign I kept waiting for the Remain side to put out a broadcast showcasing a positive and optimistic view of Europe. Instead it was 100% fear.
    Yes, and I was quite critical of the Remain campaign for this on PB at the time.

    Indeed, the reason that Remain won in 1975 was because of positive campaigning about the many benefits of European integration.
    But also the devious genius of the "no downsides, only considerable upsides" narrative (and I know that quote was post-Referendum, but it encapsulates a common vibe of the campaign).

    The link between the annoying features of EU membership (not always getting exactly what we want, sometimes silly Eurorules) and the benefits (frictionless access to a huge market of rich people) were laughed off. The reality that you can only get the benefits by paying the costs was simply denied. And is still being denied.

    Once political debate gets that decadent, democracy is in trouble. It's why "the government should have made Vote Leave put up a concrete plan" wouldn't have worked. VL would have proposed a unicorn. Had the EU said "that's a unicorn", the response would have been "of course they're saying that now, but when the UK shows some bulldog spirit..."
    Because it's not a unicorn.

    Trade and integration have no reason whatsoever to be linked. The idea that there's only one form of Europe is the biggest unicorn of all. Europe has always been a la carte with a pile of fudge on the side and it is only Europhile extremists who say otherwise.

    image
    On your own chart, the UK will now be outside each of those groupings, having rejected EEA etc. That's not a la carte, that's sat outside in the rain, eating corned beef sandwiches and drinking lukewarm tea.
    No. We will be in a new circle. 🤦🏻‍♂️

    There is no reason to say these circles are the only plausible ones. New circles get created for what countries need.
    Unless we leave the ECHR we will still be in the Council of Europe.
This discussion has been closed.