If that happens I expect the Leavers will be like the Okinawans at the end of the battle of err, Okinawa.
I think he has a point, although it will be some way off. I just can't see future generations allowing an environment in which the likes of Farage, Hannan, Rees-Mogg, Boris etc. could thrive. They just seem like strange by-products of a tiny slither of history.
I don't know what "their" expectations were and certainly the idea of a "blue wave" sweeping through both the Executive and Legislature proved unfounded but ultimately they still control the House, the White House and have an outside chance of the Senate.
They believed the polls and believed they might flip the Senate - which would have given them the Presidency, Senate and the House. Which in US terms is the equivalent of a 100 seat majority in the House of Commons in the UK. You do what you want, pretty much.
Instead they have the Presidency and a moderate lead in the House. The Senate is still a block to anything happening on the legislative front. The moderate House lead will mean that the Democrats there will circle the wagons and not do very much to upset the voters.
It's a big come down for some people.
Oddly enough, I think Biden will be very happy with the outcome. Presidents forced to co-habit with a hostile Senate usually do quite well as they are forced to be conciliatory and bi-partisan and that always plays well with the electorate.
I'll go further - IF the GOP holds the Senate in 2021, the Democrats will hold the White House in 2024.
2022? Nearly two thirds of the seats up will be defending GOP’ers, tho
A lot of the Republican seats are safe though. The most vulnerable seats are Nevada and New Hampshire for the Dems, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for the Reps. Plus possibly Georgia depending on who wins the special election
Yet another piece on Lewis Hamilton on BBC News website today....is there something coming up that perhaps might have a public vote, that he could be in the running for?
I'm a Remainer, but wonder if that graph is actually just the same as you'd find just before and after a divorce? The favourability rating of your partner declines, the split occurs, then you remember that they're not such a bad old stick and you had some good times. Not sure it's a case to do a Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor.
Except we haven't noticeably done the divorce bit yet.
The paperwork has come through, but in practice we are still living together and doing all the stuff married couples do. It's just we can't work out where we will be living come January 1 (except Not Here) and whether we get to take the goldfish with us.
It would be very 2020 for the UK to decisively shift to "hey, maybe this Brexit thing is a mistake" just as we a) act on Brexit and b) act on it in a very hardcore way. (What would count as decisive? Obviously there's a sense in which opinion polls don't count, but 60:40? 70:30? 80:20?)
Good luck running the country if that turns out to be the case...
Italian hospitals are struggling with a shortage of intensive care specialists as the country battles a severe coronavirus second wave, while some citizens are also turning against health workers.
Covid-related deaths rose by 731 on Tuesday – the highest daily toll since early April, when Italy was in complete lockdown – and by 753 on Wednesday, as weaknesses in the healthcare system across the country become more exposed.
Yes, it’s well worth a watch. And, given its huge global audience, you’ll know that the storyline as depicted is what people, especially American people, will always henceforth think happened, regardless of what any historian might have or will ever write.
What evidence is there that The Crown in general, and the current series in particular have ANY kind of audience? And what do you mean by "global"?
Netflix isn't available at all in China. Its penetration in India is derisory. So that's a third of the world's population gone for a start. Do you really believe anyone in Russia, Indonesia or Bangladesh gives a stuff?
A cricket match between India and Pakistan gets a huge audience. So does a European Cup Final.
A crap soap opera about an institution no-one outside the North Sea perimeter and a few former British colonies understands? Only English journalists could believe it gets any kind of audience.
If that happens I expect the Leavers will be like the Okinawans at the end of the battle of err, Okinawa.
So your hero David Cameron timed his EU referendum perfectly: to coincide with one of the historic low points in UK opinion of the EU. Genius
Cameron was, is and will always remain a smug, overrated dickhead, whose biggest and most deluded fan was himself. Followed by you
You seem angry.
I thought you got tumescent at the prospect of a diamond hard No Deal, we're a few weeks from that.
I know not of these opinions you staple to me
Anyhoo, I don't think we are getting Tungsten-Tipped Brexit. I agree with the threader, I reckon we will get Shabby Compromise Brexit (and that's why Dom has gone) - a tepid little thing which will please no one, fishermen and bankers, Leavers and Remainers alike.
Boris is genuinely worried about Scotland, and somewhat concerned about NI and Biden. He will yield and pretend to have won.
How will the UK public react? Very hard to say. I don't think a Rejoin party will flourish but (as I have said before) I can see an EEA-supporting party gaining from the remorseful backlash when Brexit turns out to be shit and pointless (in the short term - medium/long term it may easily be the better choice)
Oddly enough, I think Biden will be very happy with the outcome. Presidents forced to co-habit with a hostile Senate usually do quite well as they are forced to be conciliatory and bi-partisan and that always plays well with the electorate.
I'll go further - IF the GOP holds the Senate in 2021, the Democrats will hold the White House in 2024.
2022? Nearly two thirds of the seats up will be defending GOP’ers, tho
That's the interesting question - what happens to the GOP once the law suits end and Biden is inaugurated? Since the election it's all been about the Democrats and why they failed but the Republicans failed as well - Trump is the first President since 1992 to fail to gain re-election and the first since Carter to lose the White House for his Party after a single term.
At the moment, crying foul is all the Trump loyalists are doing and citing voter fraud instead of asking why they couldn't hold Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That inquest will have to start sooner or later and then we will see the battle for the soul of the GOP begin.
I still think it conceivable the Trump loyalists will abandon the GOP to become an independent third party and challenge both Democrats and Republicans.
If that happens I expect the Leavers will be like the Okinawans at the end of the battle of err, Okinawa.
I think he has a point, although it will be some way off. I just can't see future generations allowing an environment in which the likes of Farage, Hannan, Rees-Mogg, Boris etc. could thrive. They just seem like strange by-products of a tiny slither of history.
Throughout the process- going back to the 1970's- there's been a Brexitty generation. Crudely, the generation that grew up on the heroic stories of WW2, without having experiencing the war themselves. People older than that understood the importance of giving keeping the peoples of Europe trading, interacting and gently mixing. People younger than that grew up with a world of minimal borders and liked it.
Without that generational bulge, there's no Brexit majority.
FPT: "Paying for the bubble at the end is, however, precisely what you should aim to do. That way you get interest free (mostly) finance for the first three years, plus the insurance of knowing that if you land with a lemon you can ditch it, and the amount you pay in the third year is pitched to be almost certainly less than the car is worth (so that if you hand it back the plan provider is in profit). Plus all the mileage restrictions etc. become irrelevant if you buy the car.
The plan is however designed to encourage you to do what you suggest, and trade in for another new car, keeping a similar monthly payment. You don’t have a car to trade in, of course, so are hit with another up front deposit. Add the stream of deposits you are paying to the monthly premium and you are effectively paying for the early years depreciation over and over.
The front loaded depreciation becomes irrelevant if you keep the car for eight years or so, which is how PCP becomes a financial winner."
Thanks for that. I bought a brand new car this year and will be buying another early next year. Dealers are only interested in giving you PCP finance, it seems to me. As a cash buyer it is irritating, can`t get a discount for cash upfront any more.
I crunched the numbers last year and after much scratching of head I decided that buying with cash is still best and the PCP schemes are basically an ongoing marketing ruse for the dealers to keep badgering you to change the car over and over. I think they bank on people not being able to finance the bubble payment.
In addition to interest payments, PCP has the disadvantage of putting a credit search imprint on your record. Also, there are mileage restrictions, though I didn`t pick up on what you have said above about this being irrelevant if you are going to pay the bubble (which I would).
What did you mean when you said "if you land with a lemon you can ditch it"? If you buy with cash you can do this too. If you want to sell it early when you are still paying the monthlies, i.e. before the bubble, can you give it back to the dealer?
There was an article around the time Lady Thatcher died which pointed out The Queen liked Lady Thatcher a lot, there was the OM, and the fact she attended Thatcher's 80th birthday, there were a lot of ways the Queen could have dissed Lady Thatcher but she didn't.
Don't you think that the Queen - and probably both her father and grandfather - would regard "disliking" virtually any PM as profoundly unprofessional?
Yup, but there has this meme that refuses to die that Thatcher and the Queen hated each other, the evidence is that they had a warm and cordial relationship.
Whilst I'm an arch republican, one thing I've always admired about her is that the contents of her weekly audience with her PM has never leaked.
Watching The Crown was amazed Michael Fagan entered Buckingham Palace twice. On the second occasion sat on the Queens bed, whilst she was in it. Must have been a truly frightening experience.
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
I have seen virtually no mainstream coverage of the situation. In the spring, every night we got all the comparisons of how the UK was doing versus every European country, this time some brief mentions of which countries are going into lockdown, odd article about France is bad shape etc.
I doubt most people know that Lombardy is being hit just as badly as spring and that a number of countries that escaped the first wave are getting the shit kicked out of them e.g. Poland.
If that happens I expect the Leavers will be like the Okinawans at the end of the battle of err, Okinawa.
I think he has a point, although it will be some way off. I just can't see future generations allowing an environment in which the likes of Farage, Hannan, Rees-Mogg, Boris etc. could thrive. They just seem like strange by-products of a tiny slither of history.
Throughout the process- going back to the 1970's- there's been a Brexitty generation. Crudely, the generation that grew up on the heroic stories of WW2, without having experiencing the war themselves. People older than that understood the importance of giving keeping the peoples of Europe trading, interacting and gently mixing. People younger than that grew up with a world of minimal borders and liked it.
Without that generational bulge, there's no Brexit majority.
This is fair.
But the complicating factor is that the EU is itself in turmoil (see the Hungarian veto this week over the corona bail out deal), and it is likely heading into further, deeper Federalism. Will Brits ever vote for this? No, I don't think so (unless Scotland breaks off and does it by itself but even that is doubtful).
That's why I am convinced we will end up with EEA/or some bespoke associate membership. Young Brits will want the Free Movement
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
All of Europe, or the large majority of it at any rate, is going to end up incarcerated like we are now - either continuously, or in cycles of two weeks out and two months back under house arrest - until somewhere between April and June next year, depending on the weather.
Start praying that this disease doesn't keep bouncing back and forth between humans and animals, returning in a new and vaccine negating form each time, as may already have started with the mink, or else we'll be locked up for nine months of the year every year for the rest of time. Or until the introduction of mandatory euthanasia at 60.
Oddly enough, I think Biden will be very happy with the outcome. Presidents forced to co-habit with a hostile Senate usually do quite well as they are forced to be conciliatory and bi-partisan and that always plays well with the electorate.
I'll go further - IF the GOP holds the Senate in 2021, the Democrats will hold the White House in 2024.
2022? Nearly two thirds of the seats up will be defending GOP’ers, tho
That's the interesting question - what happens to the GOP once the law suits end and Biden is inaugurated? Since the election it's all been about the Democrats and why they failed but the Republicans failed as well - Trump is the first President since 1992 to fail to gain re-election and the first since Carter to lose the White House for his Party after a single term.
At the moment, crying foul is all the Trump loyalists are doing and citing voter fraud instead of asking why they couldn't hold Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That inquest will have to start sooner or later and then we will see the battle for the soul of the GOP begin.
I still think it conceivable the Trump loyalists will abandon the GOP to become an independent third party and challenge both Democrats and Republicans.
FPT: "Paying for the bubble at the end is, however, precisely what you should aim to do. That way you get interest free (mostly) finance for the first three years, plus the insurance of knowing that if you land with a lemon you can ditch it, and the amount you pay in the third year is pitched to be almost certainly less than the car is worth (so that if you hand it back the plan provider is in profit). Plus all the mileage restrictions etc. become irrelevant if you buy the car.
The plan is however designed to encourage you to do what you suggest, and trade in for another new car, keeping a similar monthly payment. You don’t have a car to trade in, of course, so are hit with another up front deposit. Add the stream of deposits you are paying to the monthly premium and you are effectively paying for the early years depreciation over and over.
The front loaded depreciation becomes irrelevant if you keep the car for eight years or so, which is how PCP becomes a financial winner."
Thanks for that. I bought a brand new car this year and will be buying another early next year. Dealers are only interested in giving you PCP finance, it seems to me. As a cash buyer it is irritating, can`t get a discount for cash upfront any more.
I crunched the numbers last year and after much scratching of head I decided that buying with cash is still best and the PCP schemes are basically an ongoing marketing ruse for the dealers to keep badgering you to change the car over and over. I think they bank on people not being able to finance the bubble payment.
In addition to interest payments, PCP has the disadvantage of putting a credit search imprint on your record. Also, there are mileage restrictions, though I didn`t pick up on what you have said above about this being irrelevant if you are going to pay the bubble (which I would).
What did you mean when you said "if you land with a lemon you can ditch it"? If you buy with cash you can do this too. If you want to sell it early when you are still paying the monthlies, i.e. before the bubble, can you give it back to the dealer?
What do you do when you buy a car, cash or PCP?
Like you I have a new car, from January. I’ll be keeping it after three years and simply put the cash I would have used to purchase it outright aside, having saved up for it in the first place. I was lucky and got a 0% PCP deal.
The mileage restriction is there to make sure you don’t run the car into the ground before handing it back; if you don’t hand it back, it isn’t relevant.
In the unlikely event you do get a lemon, the three year point allows you to hand it back effectively for the pre-agreed value, which you couldn’t do if you had bought it outright. There are early return provisions, but usually for a penalty, and whilst it’s under warranty having it repaired is the better route anyway.
I only mention the lemon because my previous fully owned car was a Golf whose engine died completely at just over three years - a leaking piston failing that I reckon had been a problem from the beginning. I had to pull a lot of strings to get a free replacement engine from VW and even then had to pay £1800 to have it put in.
'I still think it conceivable the Trump loyalists will abandon the GOP to become an independent third party and challenge both Democrats and Republicans. '
I suspect that is his long-term plan, a sort of political vanity project. Bit like Farage and UKIP.
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
All of Europe, or the large majority of it at any rate, is going to end up incarcerated like we are now - either continuously, or in cycles of two weeks out and two months back under house arrest - until somewhere between April and June next year, depending on the weather.
Start praying that this disease doesn't keep bouncing back and forth between humans and animals, returning in a new and vaccine negating form each time, as may already have started with the mink, or else we'll be locked up for nine months of the year every year for the rest of time. Or until the introduction of mandatory euthanasia at 60.
Yes, I have looked at the statistical runes and seen the same potentially horrendous outcome.
However I am more optimistic. Even if the fucker does mutate and no vaccine works for very long, in the end we will just learn to live with this virus the way we learned to live with syphilis and smallpox. ie it was terrible for those that got a bad dose, but life has to go on, so life went on
Perpetual lockdown will die before human civilisation submits to permanent imprisonment. We are already on the cusp of what western societies will accept (in terms of illiberal controls on life)
FPT: "Paying for the bubble at the end is, however, precisely what you should aim to do. That way you get interest free (mostly) finance for the first three years, plus the insurance of knowing that if you land with a lemon you can ditch it, and the amount you pay in the third year is pitched to be almost certainly less than the car is worth (so that if you hand it back the plan provider is in profit). Plus all the mileage restrictions etc. become irrelevant if you buy the car.
The plan is however designed to encourage you to do what you suggest, and trade in for another new car, keeping a similar monthly payment. You don’t have a car to trade in, of course, so are hit with another up front deposit. Add the stream of deposits you are paying to the monthly premium and you are effectively paying for the early years depreciation over and over.
The front loaded depreciation becomes irrelevant if you keep the car for eight years or so, which is how PCP becomes a financial winner."
Thanks for that. I bought a brand new car this year and will be buying another early next year. Dealers are only interested in giving you PCP finance, it seems to me. As a cash buyer it is irritating, can`t get a discount for cash upfront any more.
I crunched the numbers last year and after much scratching of head I decided that buying with cash is still best and the PCP schemes are basically an ongoing marketing ruse for the dealers to keep badgering you to change the car over and over. I think they bank on people not being able to finance the bubble payment.
In addition to interest payments, PCP has the disadvantage of putting a credit search imprint on your record. Also, there are mileage restrictions, though I didn`t pick up on what you have said above about this being irrelevant if you are going to pay the bubble (which I would).
What did you mean when you said "if you land with a lemon you can ditch it"? If you buy with cash you can do this too. If you want to sell it early when you are still paying the monthlies, i.e. before the bubble, can you give it back to the dealer?
What do you do when you buy a car, cash or PCP?
Like you I have a new car, from January. I’ll be keeping it after three years and simply put the cash I would have used to purchase it outright aside, having saved up for it in the first place. I was lucky and got a 0% PCP deal.
The mileage restriction is there to make sure you don’t run the car into the ground before handing it back; if you don’t hand it back, it isn’t relevant.
In the unlikely event you do get a lemon, the three year point allows you to hand it back effectively for the pre-agreed value, which you couldn’t do if you had bought it outright. There are early return provisions, but usually for a penalty, and whilst it’s under warranty having it repaired is the better route anyway.
I only mention the lemon because my previous fully owned car was a Golf whose engine died completely at just over three years - a leaking piston failing that I reckon had been a problem from the beginning. I had to pull a lot of strings to get a free replacement engine from VW and even then had to pay £1800 to have it put in.
So, to be clear, if I went for PCP and put the money aside for the bubble so that wasn`t in doubt it would be irrelevant the mileage I did AND it would be irrelevant if I had dents in the car and stuff? When I paid the bubble would they even look at the car?
'I still think it conceivable the Trump loyalists will abandon the GOP to become an independent third party and challenge both Democrats and Republicans. '
I suspect that is his long-term plan, a sort of political vanity project. Bit like Farage and UKIP.
FPT: "Paying for the bubble at the end is, however, precisely what you should aim to do. That way you get interest free (mostly) finance for the first three years, plus the insurance of knowing that if you land with a lemon you can ditch it, and the amount you pay in the third year is pitched to be almost certainly less than the car is worth (so that if you hand it back the plan provider is in profit). Plus all the mileage restrictions etc. become irrelevant if you buy the car.
The plan is however designed to encourage you to do what you suggest, and trade in for another new car, keeping a similar monthly payment. You don’t have a car to trade in, of course, so are hit with another up front deposit. Add the stream of deposits you are paying to the monthly premium and you are effectively paying for the early years depreciation over and over.
The front loaded depreciation becomes irrelevant if you keep the car for eight years or so, which is how PCP becomes a financial winner."
Thanks for that. I bought a brand new car this year and will be buying another early next year. Dealers are only interested in giving you PCP finance, it seems to me. As a cash buyer it is irritating, can`t get a discount for cash upfront any more.
I crunched the numbers last year and after much scratching of head I decided that buying with cash is still best and the PCP schemes are basically an ongoing marketing ruse for the dealers to keep badgering you to change the car over and over. I think they bank on people not being able to finance the bubble payment.
In addition to interest payments, PCP has the disadvantage of putting a credit search imprint on your record. Also, there are mileage restrictions, though I didn`t pick up on what you have said above about this being irrelevant if you are going to pay the bubble (which I would).
What did you mean when you said "if you land with a lemon you can ditch it"? If you buy with cash you can do this too. If you want to sell it early when you are still paying the monthlies, i.e. before the bubble, can you give it back to the dealer?
What do you do when you buy a car, cash or PCP?
PCP doesn’t just apply to new cars, you get it on used ones too.
Italian hospitals are struggling with a shortage of intensive care specialists as the country battles a severe coronavirus second wave, while some citizens are also turning against health workers.
Covid-related deaths rose by 731 on Tuesday – the highest daily toll since early April, when Italy was in complete lockdown – and by 753 on Wednesday, as weaknesses in the healthcare system across the country become more exposed.
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
All of Europe, or the large majority of it at any rate, is going to end up incarcerated like we are now - either continuously, or in cycles of two weeks out and two months back under house arrest - until somewhere between April and June next year, depending on the weather.
Start praying that this disease doesn't keep bouncing back and forth between humans and animals, returning in a new and vaccine negating form each time, as may already have started with the mink, or else we'll be locked up for nine months of the year every year for the rest of time. Or until the introduction of mandatory euthanasia at 60.
Y'know, I found myself wondering the other day how @Black_Rook would find a way to pour cold water on the emergence of multiple safe and effective vaccines on time and on schedule...
Encouraging signs on the case numbers today that the new lockdown might be having the desired effect. We're two weeks supposedly from the end of this current lockdown and everyone seems confident it will be a return to the Tier system for the run up to Christmas. It'll be good to see the new case infections fall back to where they were in mid summer.
Then there's the small matter of a vaccine...
Over in America as the cases surge, the counting goes on. Looking at the states we still have votes to come from the following:
Washington DC (95% counted) Illinois (97%) Kentucky (98%) Iowa (98%) Maine (91%) - Biden now leads by 10% Maryland (94%) Massachusetts (95%) New Jersey (98%) New York (84%) Ohio (96%) Oregon (98%)
That suggests the likelihood of Biden further extending his lead. He is currently approximately 5,830,000 votes ahead of Trump or in percentage terms 51.0-47.2 so a 0.85% swing from 2016..
Repeating myself, but Biden has a lead of 5 million in California alone. Two points from that 1. He is 'wasting' 4 million votes, a concept you should know a thing or two about Stodge. 2. Therefore the remaining 49 states and the rest are evenly divided 50/50. The Democrats should not get too cocky about the demographic tide inevitably destined to overcome their electoral college hurdle.
If that happens I expect the Leavers will be like the Okinawans at the end of the battle of err, Okinawa.
So your hero David Cameron timed his EU referendum perfectly: to coincide with one of the historic low points in UK opinion of the EU. Genius
I think it's more that the period around the EU referendum made people think about membership more, like the polling that shows people who thought membership was an important issue was very low until 2015 when it grew to be Number One.
Italian hospitals are struggling with a shortage of intensive care specialists as the country battles a severe coronavirus second wave, while some citizens are also turning against health workers.
Covid-related deaths rose by 731 on Tuesday – the highest daily toll since early April, when Italy was in complete lockdown – and by 753 on Wednesday, as weaknesses in the healthcare system across the country become more exposed.
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
Meanwhile, we STILL keep hearing from people yammering on about false positives and calling it a “casedemic”.
This was the day when anyone cites Lockdown sceptics as a good source deserves to be exiled to ConHome with Piers Morgan and Corbyn for a year and force fed Hawaiian pizzas.
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
All of Europe, or the large majority of it at any rate, is going to end up incarcerated like we are now - either continuously, or in cycles of two weeks out and two months back under house arrest - until somewhere between April and June next year, depending on the weather.
Start praying that this disease doesn't keep bouncing back and forth between humans and animals, returning in a new and vaccine negating form each time, as may already have started with the mink, or else we'll be locked up for nine months of the year every year for the rest of time. Or until the introduction of mandatory euthanasia at 60.
Yes, I have looked at the statistical runes and seen the same potentially horrendous outcome.
However I am more optimistic. Even if the fucker does mutate and no vaccine works for very long, in the end we will just learn to live with this virus the way we learned to live with syphilis and smallpox. ie it was terrible for those that got a bad dose, but life has to go on, so life went on
Perpetual lockdown will die before human civilisation submits to permanent imprisonment. We are already on the cusp of what western societies will accept (in terms of illiberal controls on life)
People, or a large enough percentage of them to do the necessary damage, are terrified. People will submit to practically anything if they're frightened enough. Mask wearing, protecting the NHS at any and all cost, extreme health and safety OCD over social distancing, as little direct contact with other disease vectors as possible and everything done through screens, it's all becoming culturally entrenched at a rate of knots. Best case scenario, the vaccines properly suppress the wretched disease and some of this stuff gradually gets rolled back. Most likely, this is it. Life will never get any better.
I also heard some commentator or other say "artistic licence doesn't mean you can make up your own facts". To which the answer is that is EXACTLY what artistic licence means by definition.
To be fair, I think what is meant by that is that contradicting known facts is outside the scope of artistic licence for a historical drama. If you make something up with the effect of distorting the essential truth, as opposed to illuminating it, then you've failed.
I don't agree with that at all. If you want to read history, read history. The play Macbeth casts very little light on, and indeed distorts, the story of the real Macbeth, whom history regards as a pretty effective and well liked monarch. Would you regard it, therefore, as "failed"?
I get the argument, although I don't really agree with it, that it's a bit harsh to do that to figures who are still alive or whose close family are still alive. But I don't at all accept it makes for bad art.
It wouldn't have occurred to me to put The Crown in the same category as Shakespeare. I agree that something can distort the truth and be good or even great art, but it shouldn't purport to be a historically accurate dramatisation.
The difference with Shakespeare is that he had the sense to avoid recent, living memory history. In the modern age to do dramas about recent stuff which is part of the fabric of common memory is fatal unless you pitch it right. It's another version of those awful dramas set in mid/early 20th century where they get the costume perfect and the dialogue is patently modern/East Enders.
Although Richard III was out and out propaganda to curry favours with the Queen
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
All of Europe, or the large majority of it at any rate, is going to end up incarcerated like we are now - either continuously, or in cycles of two weeks out and two months back under house arrest - until somewhere between April and June next year, depending on the weather.
Start praying that this disease doesn't keep bouncing back and forth between humans and animals, returning in a new and vaccine negating form each time, as may already have started with the mink, or else we'll be locked up for nine months of the year every year for the rest of time. Or until the introduction of mandatory euthanasia at 60.
Yes, I have looked at the statistical runes and seen the same potentially horrendous outcome.
However I am more optimistic. Even if the fucker does mutate and no vaccine works for very long, in the end we will just learn to live with this virus the way we learned to live with syphilis and smallpox. ie it was terrible for those that got a bad dose, but life has to go on, so life went on
Perpetual lockdown will die before human civilisation submits to permanent imprisonment. We are already on the cusp of what western societies will accept (in terms of illiberal controls on life)
People, or a large enough percentage of them to do the necessary damage, are terrified. People will submit to practically anything if they're frightened enough. Mask wearing, protecting the NHS at any and all cost, extreme health and safety OCD over social distancing, as little direct contact with other disease vectors as possible and everything done through screens, it's all becoming culturally entrenched at a rate of knots. Best case scenario, the vaccines properly suppress the wretched disease and some of this stuff gradually gets rolled back. Most likely, this is it. Life will never get any better.
Have a little patience. Come back in summer and see where we are. Things will be better.
TSE is a big fan of measuring success as outcome v expectation.
Reasonable expectations, I mean Biden absolutely beat expectations and then some if you use Trafalgar polls as your baseline.
But like the poll showing Biden Wisconsin by 17% it was said at time both seemed unrealistic.
My own view, Biden met expectations, the Dems did not.
As I pointed out at the time the 17% Wisconsin lead was based on total turnout being larger than the number or registered voters in the state. It was a smidge unrealistic.
FPT: "Paying for the bubble at the end is, however, precisely what you should aim to do. That way you get interest free (mostly) finance for the first three years, plus the insurance of knowing that if you land with a lemon you can ditch it, and the amount you pay in the third year is pitched to be almost certainly less than the car is worth (so that if you hand it back the plan provider is in profit). Plus all the mileage restrictions etc. become irrelevant if you buy the car.
The plan is however designed to encourage you to do what you suggest, and trade in for another new car, keeping a similar monthly payment. You don’t have a car to trade in, of course, so are hit with another up front deposit. Add the stream of deposits you are paying to the monthly premium and you are effectively paying for the early years depreciation over and over.
The front loaded depreciation becomes irrelevant if you keep the car for eight years or so, which is how PCP becomes a financial winner."
Thanks for that. I bought a brand new car this year and will be buying another early next year. Dealers are only interested in giving you PCP finance, it seems to me. As a cash buyer it is irritating, can`t get a discount for cash upfront any more.
I crunched the numbers last year and after much scratching of head I decided that buying with cash is still best and the PCP schemes are basically an ongoing marketing ruse for the dealers to keep badgering you to change the car over and over. I think they bank on people not being able to finance the bubble payment.
In addition to interest payments, PCP has the disadvantage of putting a credit search imprint on your record. Also, there are mileage restrictions, though I didn`t pick up on what you have said above about this being irrelevant if you are going to pay the bubble (which I would).
What did you mean when you said "if you land with a lemon you can ditch it"? If you buy with cash you can do this too. If you want to sell it early when you are still paying the monthlies, i.e. before the bubble, can you give it back to the dealer?
What do you do when you buy a car, cash or PCP?
Like you I have a new car, from January. I’ll be keeping it after three years and simply put the cash I would have used to purchase it outright aside, having saved up for it in the first place. I was lucky and got a 0% PCP deal.
The mileage restriction is there to make sure you don’t run the car into the ground before handing it back; if you don’t hand it back, it isn’t relevant.
In the unlikely event you do get a lemon, the three year point allows you to hand it back effectively for the pre-agreed value, which you couldn’t do if you had bought it outright. There are early return provisions, but usually for a penalty, and whilst it’s under warranty having it repaired is the better route anyway.
I only mention the lemon because my previous fully owned car was a Golf whose engine died completely at just over three years - a leaking piston failing that I reckon had been a problem from the beginning. I had to pull a lot of strings to get a free replacement engine from VW and even then had to pay £1800 to have it put in.
So, to be clear, if I went for PCP and put the money aside for the bubble so that wasn`t in doubt it would be irrelevant the mileage I did AND it would be irrelevant if I had dents in the car and stuff? When I paid the bubble would they even look at the car?
Obviously for advice on a personal case the answer has to be DYOR, but I just went and fished my paperwork out of the drawer and it clearly states that the mileage restriction and ‘fair wear and tear’ conditions only apply if you seek to return the vehicle. If you are willing to pay off the contract with the bubble payment I don’t see why they should even need to see the car, but this is my first PCP so I can’t say for certain. But I am pretty sure they will just take the money (doubtless after having tried to talk me into getting a new PCP car, since that’s where the profit is).
If that happens I expect the Leavers will be like the Okinawans at the end of the battle of err, Okinawa.
I think he has a point, although it will be some way off. I just can't see future generations allowing an environment in which the likes of Farage, Hannan, Rees-Mogg, Boris etc. could thrive. They just seem like strange by-products of a tiny slither of history.
Throughout the process- going back to the 1970's- there's been a Brexitty generation. Crudely, the generation that grew up on the heroic stories of WW2, without having experiencing the war themselves. People older than that understood the importance of giving keeping the peoples of Europe trading, interacting and gently mixing. People younger than that grew up with a world of minimal borders and liked it.
Without that generational bulge, there's no Brexit majority.
This is fair.
But the complicating factor is that the EU is itself in turmoil (see the Hungarian veto this week over the corona bail out deal), and it is likely heading into further, deeper Federalism. Will Brits ever vote for this? No, I don't think so (unless Scotland breaks off and does it by itself but even that is doubtful).
That's why I am convinced we will end up with EEA/or some bespoke associate membership. Young Brits will want the Free Movement
On one hand, I agree; the big question is whether EEA (or I can't believe it's not EEA) comes from a panicked Johnson in December 2020 (unlikely), a panicked Sunak or AN Other in 2022-ish (more likely) or Starmer in 2025 (pretty much inevitable if it hasn't already happened).
The next question is whether that's sustainable. In an annexe to the European household, following the rules because everyone knows that the alternative is moving out completely and that's not really an option. The idea that other nations would join us in leaving the full-fat EU has turned out to be a pipedream. I can see a "we should be in the room, not hanging around outside" campaign being pretty much unstoppable in (say) 15 - 20 years.
Italian hospitals are struggling with a shortage of intensive care specialists as the country battles a severe coronavirus second wave, while some citizens are also turning against health workers.
Covid-related deaths rose by 731 on Tuesday – the highest daily toll since early April, when Italy was in complete lockdown – and by 753 on Wednesday, as weaknesses in the healthcare system across the country become more exposed.
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
Meanwhile, we STILL keep hearing from people yammering on about false positives and calling it a “casedemic”.
This is my patch. We are already substantially over the numbers in the April pandemic.The plug is being pulled on a lot of planned care as theatre staff are deployed to Intensive care
If that happens I expect the Leavers will be like the Okinawans at the end of the battle of err, Okinawa.
I think he has a point, although it will be some way off. I just can't see future generations allowing an environment in which the likes of Farage, Hannan, Rees-Mogg, Boris etc. could thrive. They just seem like strange by-products of a tiny slither of history.
Throughout the process- going back to the 1970's- there's been a Brexitty generation. Crudely, the generation that grew up on the heroic stories of WW2, without having experiencing the war themselves. People older than that understood the importance of giving keeping the peoples of Europe trading, interacting and gently mixing. People younger than that grew up with a world of minimal borders and liked it.
Without that generational bulge, there's no Brexit majority.
This is fair.
But the complicating factor is that the EU is itself in turmoil (see the Hungarian veto this week over the corona bail out deal), and it is likely heading into further, deeper Federalism. Will Brits ever vote for this? No, I don't think so (unless Scotland breaks off and does it by itself but even that is doubtful).
That's why I am convinced we will end up with EEA/or some bespoke associate membership. Young Brits will want the Free Movement
It’s the concept of EU citizenship that is problematic not movement per se
Poland is heading into deep shit. 20,000 cases, 600 dead
All of Europe, or the large majority of it at any rate, is going to end up incarcerated like we are now - either continuously, or in cycles of two weeks out and two months back under house arrest - until somewhere between April and June next year, depending on the weather.
Start praying that this disease doesn't keep bouncing back and forth between humans and animals, returning in a new and vaccine negating form each time, as may already have started with the mink, or else we'll be locked up for nine months of the year every year for the rest of time. Or until the introduction of mandatory euthanasia at 60.
Yes, I have looked at the statistical runes and seen the same potentially horrendous outcome.
However I am more optimistic. Even if the fucker does mutate and no vaccine works for very long, in the end we will just learn to live with this virus the way we learned to live with syphilis and smallpox. ie it was terrible for those that got a bad dose, but life has to go on, so life went on
Perpetual lockdown will die before human civilisation submits to permanent imprisonment. We are already on the cusp of what western societies will accept (in terms of illiberal controls on life)
I also heard some commentator or other say "artistic licence doesn't mean you can make up your own facts". To which the answer is that is EXACTLY what artistic licence means by definition.
Comments
The paperwork has come through, but in practice we are still living together and doing all the stuff married couples do. It's just we can't work out where we will be living come January 1 (except Not Here) and whether we get to take the goldfish with us.
It would be very 2020 for the UK to decisively shift to "hey, maybe this Brexit thing is a mistake" just as we a) act on Brexit and b) act on it in a very hardcore way. (What would count as decisive? Obviously there's a sense in which opinion polls don't count, but 60:40? 70:30? 80:20?)
Good luck running the country if that turns out to be the case...
I thought you got tumescent at the prospect of a diamond hard No Deal, we're a few weeks from that.
Covid-related deaths rose by 731 on Tuesday – the highest daily toll since early April, when Italy was in complete lockdown – and by 753 on Wednesday, as weaknesses in the healthcare system across the country become more exposed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/18/brutal-second-wave-of-covid-exposes-italys-healthcare-weaknesses
Netflix isn't available at all in China. Its penetration in India is derisory. So that's a third of the world's population gone for a start. Do you really believe anyone in Russia, Indonesia or Bangladesh gives a stuff?
A cricket match between India and Pakistan gets a huge audience. So does a European Cup Final.
A crap soap opera about an institution no-one outside the North Sea perimeter and a few former British colonies understands? Only English journalists could believe it gets any kind of audience.
Seven countries are now reporting mink-related Sars-CoV-2 mutations in humans, according to new scientific analysis.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/18/covid-19-mink-variants-discovered-in-humans-in-seven-countries
Anyhoo, I don't think we are getting Tungsten-Tipped Brexit. I agree with the threader, I reckon we will get Shabby Compromise Brexit (and that's why Dom has gone) - a tepid little thing which will please no one, fishermen and bankers, Leavers and Remainers alike.
Boris is genuinely worried about Scotland, and somewhat concerned about NI and Biden. He will yield and pretend to have won.
How will the UK public react? Very hard to say. I don't think a Rejoin party will flourish but (as I have said before) I can see an EEA-supporting party gaining from the remorseful backlash when Brexit turns out to be shit and pointless (in the short term - medium/long term it may easily be the better choice)
At the moment, crying foul is all the Trump loyalists are doing and citing voter fraud instead of asking why they couldn't hold Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That inquest will have to start sooner or later and then we will see the battle for the soul of the GOP begin.
I still think it conceivable the Trump loyalists will abandon the GOP to become an independent third party and challenge both Democrats and Republicans.
https://www.minky.com/cleaning/antibacterial-range/anti-bacterial-bumper-cleaning-bundle-tb00100135.html
Without that generational bulge, there's no Brexit majority.
The plan is however designed to encourage you to do what you suggest, and trade in for another new car, keeping a similar monthly payment. You don’t have a car to trade in, of course, so are hit with another up front deposit. Add the stream of deposits you are paying to the monthly premium and you are effectively paying for the early years depreciation over and over.
The front loaded depreciation becomes irrelevant if you keep the car for eight years or so, which is how PCP becomes a financial winner."
@IanB2
Thanks for that. I bought a brand new car this year and will be buying another early next year. Dealers are only interested in giving you PCP finance, it seems to me. As a cash buyer it is irritating, can`t get a discount for cash upfront any more.
I crunched the numbers last year and after much scratching of head I decided that buying with cash is still best and the PCP schemes are basically an ongoing marketing ruse for the dealers to keep badgering you to change the car over and over. I think they bank on people not being able to finance the bubble payment.
In addition to interest payments, PCP has the disadvantage of putting a credit search imprint on your record. Also, there are mileage restrictions, though I didn`t pick up on what you have said above about this being irrelevant if you are going to pay the bubble (which I would).
What did you mean when you said "if you land with a lemon you can ditch it"? If you buy with cash you can do this too. If you want to sell it early when you are still paying the monthlies, i.e. before the bubble, can you give it back to the dealer?
What do you do when you buy a car, cash or PCP?
I doubt most people know that Lombardy is being hit just as badly as spring and that a number of countries that escaped the first wave are getting the shit kicked out of them e.g. Poland.
But the complicating factor is that the EU is itself in turmoil (see the Hungarian veto this week over the corona bail out deal), and it is likely heading into further, deeper Federalism. Will Brits ever vote for this? No, I don't think so (unless Scotland breaks off and does it by itself but even that is doubtful).
That's why I am convinced we will end up with EEA/or some bespoke associate membership. Young Brits will want the Free Movement
Start praying that this disease doesn't keep bouncing back and forth between humans and animals, returning in a new and vaccine negating form each time, as may already have started with the mink, or else we'll be locked up for nine months of the year every year for the rest of time. Or until the introduction of mandatory euthanasia at 60.
If he is good, he will be allowed to read Con. Home.
The mileage restriction is there to make sure you don’t run the car into the ground before handing it back; if you don’t hand it back, it isn’t relevant.
In the unlikely event you do get a lemon, the three year point allows you to hand it back effectively for the pre-agreed value, which you couldn’t do if you had bought it outright. There are early return provisions, but usually for a penalty, and whilst it’s under warranty having it repaired is the better route anyway.
I only mention the lemon because my previous fully owned car was a Golf whose engine died completely at just over three years - a leaking piston failing that I reckon had been a problem from the beginning. I had to pull a lot of strings to get a free replacement engine from VW and even then had to pay £1800 to have it put in.
As a great man once said - "For you, the day Bison graced your village was the most important day of your life. But for me, it was Tuesday."
'I still think it conceivable the Trump loyalists will abandon the GOP to become an independent third party and challenge both Democrats and Republicans. '
I suspect that is his long-term plan, a sort of political vanity project. Bit like Farage and UKIP.
However I am more optimistic. Even if the fucker does mutate and no vaccine works for very long, in the end we will just learn to live with this virus the way we learned to live with syphilis and smallpox. ie it was terrible for those that got a bad dose, but life has to go on, so life went on
Perpetual lockdown will die before human civilisation submits to permanent imprisonment. We are already on the cusp of what western societies will accept (in terms of illiberal controls on life)
And now I don't need to wonder any more
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1329019703466061824
https://twitter.com/BDStanley/status/1329068992732905472
NEW THREAD
--AS
The next question is whether that's sustainable. In an annexe to the European household, following the rules because everyone knows that the alternative is moving out completely and that's not really an option. The idea that other nations would join us in leaving the full-fat EU has turned out to be a pipedream. I can see a "we should be in the room, not hanging around outside" campaign being pretty much unstoppable in (say) 15 - 20 years.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-54989890
The forecast is for another 25% rise by the beginning of Dec.
Get the oldies to a vaccine quick sharp, then the rest of us can get on with our lives. Covid is mostly harmless for the fit and healthy under 50s.
Vaccine rollout is the priority, not Christmas gimmicks.