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The Fall of The West – politicalbetting.com
The Fall of The West – politicalbetting.com
I sometimes wonder if Francis Fukuyama regrets his 1992 book ‘The End of History’, written in the heady aftermath of the Cold War. It is commonly believed to have argued that mankind’s ideological evolution had ended, and the universalisation of liberal democracy was its endpoint. In truth, this does him a disservice: he framed his original essay as a question, not a statement, and was careful to say that totalitarian “events” could still happen in future but democracy would become more prevalent as time went on. He has since updated his thesis with a warning that the failure to provide the substance of what people want could undermine democracy, as well as “political decay” within Western nations with corruption and crony capitalism.
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https://twitter.com/SundayTimesScot/status/1328007191610191872
Voltaire of course believed something similar:
“The best government is a benevolent tyranny tempered by an occasional assassination.”
Had he lived to see the French Revolution in all its horror, he might have wondered about the 'benevolent' aspect of that phrase, however.
Thanks Casino Royale
Mind you, both my folks are Labour voters anyway, so its not that much of a breakthrough. But he said he came across as a nice bloke, liked football - that is a clincher really - and better than Corbyn, who my Dad would think was the ultimate wally, and I know he doesn't like Boris.
"And that’s before we get to those who don’t think a country is something we should be worried about governing at all: 29% of Britons surveyed this year felt that being British was unimportant to their identity and 23% didn’t think nationality is important at all."
I don't understand what this has to do with democracy. You can believe that nationality is unimportant -- as I do -- and be extremely concerned with tending and protecting democracy. Feeling like nationality is important is NOT a precondition to being a democrat.
That paragraph is so strange I can't help thinking it's so poorly written that I'm getting a meaning completely other than the one that's intended.
When did Britain become recognisably democratic?
One would now hope to see that Scotlands circuit breaker had cut cases, that doesn't seem to be the case. You could argue it stopped the increase, the level remains stubborn.
Wales we should be seeing starting to see cut in cases now, and we have started to see an average trending down, but past 2 days had high reported number of cases.
Scotland just making that mistake again by trailing level 4 for Glasgow and surrounds a week in advance, thus presumably sending lots of people for one last trip to non-essential shops.
I hope this does not see a real spike in infections going into December
"We also need to demonstrate our democratic system can manage crises better than everywhere else. Therefore, it is concerning that the West has struggled to escape the cycle of lockdowns over Covid, whilst life in Asia has largely gone back to normal. Things like this further undermine confidence in the system and weaken our ability to provide global leadership to deliver a democratic future."
The West is not synonymous with democracy. Some of the Asian countries that have coped better with Covid-19 are as democratic as Western countries that have struggled. The USA is no more a democracy than South Korea. Ditto Belgium and Singapore.
From you can't buy oven gloves in Tescos to 15 people can grt together for an activity and 4 different households down thr boozer.
Reported cases will still be high in 2 weeks and all the students are going to be heading home...and gives people 3 week prior to Christmas to do daft things.
Thanks @Casino_Royale
I would add three things to the list of drivers of the potential decline of the West:
(1) The death of empathy. That is, there's no understanding of why you might vote for Trump, or support Black Lives Matter, or feel that the State is threatening your religion, or care about trans-rights.
(2) The rise of media (and I include YouTube in this, but not politicalbetting) that *only* tells you what you want to hear. (See 1, and what this means for the death of empathy.)
(3) A belief that trolling your opponent is somehow acceptable behaviour.
"Democracy needs to be based on respect for those with whom you disagree"
The other day you were so upset about Trump losing that you went totally mad on here, attacking everyone and wishing personally misery on everyone who you think is a "leftie". It was undignified and shameful, and to hear you talk so soon about respecting others that you disagree with is either evidence of a welcome and recent but hitherto undeclared Damascene conversion, or risible hypocrisy.
Thank God there was nothing else going on at the time that might have been problematic.
A couple of minor quibbles. Democracy can be local, regional, national, federal or even multi national - the nation state is a separate issue to democracy. Often they align well, sometimes nation states lead to the suppression of democracy however.
Secondly it is not in itself a weakness that people are now considering and discussing if democracy is the best system rather than it be taken for granted. Like any other system it should have to win the arguments on its merits.
"Social media often doesn’t help here" is an understatement - it is the main problem and glad to see it get a mention.
Over the next couple of decades this is a bigger battle than Brexit, and up there with the environment and management of bio-technology as the key issues of the future, so thanks for a great article.
If you mean, when did a large majority of ordinary men get the vote meaning we had a representative mass political system, I would have said 1885 and the householder franchise.
If you mean, when did everyone get the vote, obviously it was 1928.
Edit - if you mean, when did everyone get just one equal vote, then it would be 1948.
Scotland
England
This is definitely two different shapes of graphs.
Edit - technically it actually finished in 1958, but 1919 was when the BEF was withdrawn and stood down.
I've been wondering for a while if Boris Johnson is the modern day Lloyd George, I wonder if we'll see the modern day equivalent of Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act 1925 following the fun of the awarding recent pandemic related contracts.
Of course Lloyd George like Boris Johnson knocked up at least one mistress.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0ErQXEzFWA
I must confess you baffle me.
On the one hand, you are full of good sense and I very frequently agree with you. I often "like" your comments.
On the other hand, you are irrascible and frequently lose it.
I guess that's just who you are.
Hard to see how it can be repaired.
The more I read these sentences, the less and less meaning I can get out of them. What exactly is a "nation-ist". I thought it was just me, but my dictionary doesn't know what that word means either. What are the "practical consequences" that we need to "stop refusing to accept"? With which organ do you sense a better vision, your eyes?
Certainly I agree with this.
We must stop fierce rhetorical attacks on our press, courts, rule of law, national institutions, and the history and values of the nation. We need to recognise the legitimacy of views and opinions that perhaps we vehemently disagree with and look to find accommodations with them. And how we talk and listen to each other is at least as important as what we do in response. Social media often doesn’t help here.
In a sense democracy is an obvious piece of logic. We seem to be born sort of equal. People want to get what they want. How do you know what they want unless they are asked. How do you ask them without some sort of democracy process (of which there are infinite variants. I'm sure the North Koreans think they have one of them).
But suppose there are things people want even more like security, protection, freedom from having everything they have got stolen, freedom from invasion from enemies, enough food, a roof over your head, clothes. Because this is true Thomas Hobbes developed the 'strong man' theory of government; ie obey the guy at the top because he is tough enough to have got there and no other protection is possible.
When democracy fails at providing what the 'strong man' provides - and I like the fact that it has done pretty well at doing it for quite a time - it will fail and be replaced.
People can talk about Athens of 5th century BCE. But how long was it from Pericles to rule by Alexander the Great's appointee?
Johnson and Brexit, however...
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18777898.scotlands-covid-circuit-breaker-lockdown-rules-mean/
The parallel used was the rise of Caesar, but I’ve always been struck with how apt a description the latter could be of the Third Republic and Weimar.
PS Certainly felt very much 'steady as she goes' here with the going up and down the tiers the main changes, albeit with some general tweaks.
"And how we talk and listen to each other is at least as important as what we do in response. Social media often doesn’t help here."
I think that's putting it mildly.
Could we make a start on PB by at least cutting out the casual insults?
Medico-authoritarianism has been the successful strategy. Of course we've seen a bit of a backlash against it, but it is clearly a vocal minority with the greater complaint being that the government hasn't been authoritarian enough.
Now some would say that other issues are just as pressing and require similar decisive action. I'm not quite there yet. I still describe myself as an eco-socialist, unlike the eco-authoritarian sat beside me on the sofa. However, if the majority are unable to see what needs to be done, then I may need to change my position.
When he says 'We' does he actually mean to include himself in the strictures. If so, he has a project on for himself. If not, he doesn't mean 'We' he means 'You'. Guardian journalists do it all the time.
They manage to do this without suppression of voters, armed militia, or refusal to accept the results, and manage to count and verify the results in hours.
Whilst all the while being threatened by the World's second biggest power who believe the island belongs to them.
Oh. And control the virus more successfully than almost anyone else, without major restrictions whilst they are at it.
May I ask how they are ordered?
Without some basic structure of accountability it would be infinitely easier for a Trump to get into a top position than it would to get him out of it again.
Christian freeman-on-the-landers.
Two men have been arrested at a tearoom and Christian bookshop that has refused to close under Covid-19 regulations.
Owners of the Mustard Seed in Gedling, Nottinghamshire, cited Magna Carta and common law as reasons to stay open.
On Saturday police officers went to the cafe after reports of a gathering of "40 to 50 people" at the cafe.
Officers arrested the two men for refusing to give their details when officers attempted to fine each of them £200.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54950773
I can recall intense anger and debate about the idea that immigrants should learn English. Not must (in Denmark, for example, leave to remain and citizenship are both tied to passing stringent language tests, which include colloquial usage) but simply *should*.
The common rejoinder to any comment to the effect of promoting common systems of values, is the accusations that the person doing the proposing is against "Multiculturalism". Note the capital. The doctrine of this was that integration is bad, and that every community should keep it's separate culture intact.
The problem is that, despite the bullshit, not all cultural problems are caused by white Europeans. Every culture on the planet has its issues.
For example, tolerating everyone else's religion. An obvious liberal values, yes?
Yet for much of human history, the idea that the other guys religion is anything other than wrong (at best), physically evil (at worst) has been a standard way of doing things. There are many, many countries, today where discrimination against other religions is explicitly enshrined in law. Why shouldn't its be? To tolerate heresy is to risk the spiritual death of the nation. God might turn against us. So for the good of all, the heretics and godless ones must be destroyed.
Strangely, people raised in such cultures and societies do not instantly become fans of the ecumenical approach, when they find it.
And so it goes through the long list of liberties and values that people hold.
It is worth considering this - the Western world is accelerating into a cultural Singularity. It is further away from much of the world than we realise and the distance is growing. One thing I have found interesting in my life is trying to explain, in response to questions from people outside the Western sphere, why and what it is we do. Sometimes even the basic building blocks of understanding are hard to find.
There are two choices.....
One, you can hold these values are universal and apply to all within a country. They should be taught, and promoted. Join us....
Two you can say, your culture is just as good or better, no questions asked.
But please, no hypocrisy. If the second approach is adopted, then the Districts in parts of France are the best we can hope for. If that is what you want - say so.
The question now preoccupying Westminster is whether this upheaval will lead to a change of style, performance and direction. Those Conservative MPs who have long been demanding “a reset” of an alienating and dysfunctional Number 10 are fervently hoping it will. So should everyone else if it means the Johnson government will evolve into a less hapless and more professional outfit than the amateurish and chaotic regime that has stumbled from calamity to U-turn to debacle to disaster throughout the epidemic.
“Left to his own devices, Boris will wander off from decisions and read Pliny or Pericles or eat or shag,” remarks a senior Tory who has sat in the cabinet with this prime minister. “The bit of self-knowledge that Boris has is that he needs someone who will sit him down at the table and say there’s a decision to be made and tell him that you’re not leaving this room until you’ve made it.” It was by being the person who cajoled decisions out of the prime minister that Mr Cummings made himself so powerful. He’s gone. That gap in Boris Johnson, that hole at the heart of government, remains.
As long as the machinery of government is strong enough to remove someone who refuses to leave, and strong enough to resist someone stopping an election being free and fair, the democracy persists.
American democracy is strong enough to meet those challenges, notwithstanding the fact that US elections are not perfectly fair.
I've been playing around with rate of descent/ascent algorithms - but it is quite hard to come up with something that is noticeably better than the crude average.
Come to think. Has anyone tried asking it whether we can hug grandkids, where we can go on holidays and how many we can have over for Christmas incessantly?
Worth a try. It might just bugger off.
might be of interest...
A refusal to accept the other side has won a vote is the most concerning development in recent years.
Whether in 2016 or 2020 an acknowledgement that an argument was hard fought, but the other side has won the vote and it should be implemented in the best way for all (but issues can be revisited in a few years time if people aren't happy with it) is an important part of democracy.
I've never quite been able to get my head around those apparently irreconcilable opinions. Surely if children are being indoctrinated, that's evidence of multiple native cultures which are keenly contested.
I've always said it, and I'll say it again: I feel very little in common with some people from the same country as me. They seem baffling, weird and, yes, stupid to me. As I do to them. If some immigrant rocks up eager to assimilate, should they be like me, or should they be like Casino? One would hope, for their own sake, they choose neither.