Coincidence? Maybe. Dominic Cummings’ departure from Downing Street has been a long time coming. Ever since that fateful dash to County Durham during the first lockdown was revealed to the media, he’s been a man living on borrowed time. But then he always was.
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An EU source familiar with the process said one of their meetings had been "short and brutal".
BBC News - EU-UK talks: 'Make or break' moment approaching, say both sides
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54935034
Boris' problem is that should he attempt to give ground to any meaningful extent then he's finished as PM totally and utterly and he must know that this is the case.
Second ... yet again, btw.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8946861/Covid-kills-FIVE-revellers-went-lockdown-street-party.html
Despite this, Smarkets has the odds on Yes such, a deal being concluded, at decimal odds of 1.18, i.e. a tad better than 1/6 in old money, whereas the odds against such a deal are decimal 5.5 or 9/2 expressed as a fraction and I've helped myself to a tenner's worth at these odds.
People who voted Leave did so for cultural / psychological reasons - they just wanted to "Leave". They couldn't care less about the details of trade negotiations - indeed most were quite happy with the Common Market - they are expecting the UK to continue trading with the EU. The precise terms are completely outside their knowledge / thinking.
So there is no point in Boris dying in a ditch - he just needs to get a deal, literally any deal, say we've Left, it's job done and move on.
Explains why Frost was said to be “considering resigning”.
Boris doesn’t really have any choice.
It’s the less shite of the three options on the table.
So his capitulation to Europe will be masked by him proclaiming victory - and by much of the party going along with it. That's his other advantage - so many of the 2019 Tory intake have demonstrated their moral cowardice by going along with whatever he says even if that changes from week to week.
It will be his greatest triumph when we agree a continuation deal, and how unpatriotic of anyone to question it.
What we must hope is that Johnson's new string-pullers, Carrie and Allegra, are not as obdurate as Cummings. Anyone know what their views are likely to be?
I'd write 'good morning' too, but just at the moment it doesn't feel, or look, like it. On all sorts of fronts.
I am not sure that extension is a serious option though, as we missed the deadline to extend in July.
Don't forget that being in cabinet required only two things. Loyalty to BoZo, and willingness to car crash Brexit. Buckle up!, Car Crash Brexit here we come.
Hard to know the measure of things but this might be a serious miscalculation on the EU’s part, given the PM needs to convincingly sell whatever is agreed, to survive in office another year.
Other have noted that the abrasive approach Cummings has exulted in – and the accompanying lack of alliances outside of his closest circle – may have finally cost him. As the backbencher Andrew Bridgen said earlier this year: “They say if you want a friend in politics, get a dog – well, Cummings would kick the dog as well.
James Graham, author of the Channel 4 drama Brexit: the Uncivil War, suggested that his subject might have met the limits of his ruthless style. “He’s a curious mix politically of the sophisticated and the thuggish, which I think is what Benedict tried to play,” he said. “Winning a campaign that has a start and an end point is one thing. A campaign is a fight. But government can’t be a constant fight … I suspect against the backdrop of a pandemic, the party, and even the public’s appetite for politics that divides and provokes rather than unites and soothes has worn increasingly thin.”
But a former Downing Street staffer warned that MPs expecting a permanent shift towards more collaboration with backbenchers would be left disappointed.
“The contempt for MPs does not come from Dominic Cummings,” they said, “he’s just a harder version of the smiling frontman. The basic contempt comes from Boris Johnson. This is not a guy who does the Commons tearooms, who fraternises with fellow MPs. This is a guy who gets blown around by whatever storm; he has no political compass.
“Cummings was his ultimate human shield, the lightning conductor for all the hostility from Whitehall and politicians but it is Johnson’s leadership that is the problem. He is an outsider, a personality. There’s very little seen of him building a support base within the party.”
It's obviously linked to Trump's defeat.
I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a Brexit identical to Theresa May's deal ...
Really really poor. We should have a thread rating the different betting sites.
F1: weird practice yesterday. Very slidy. Vestappen looking good (his team mate and AlphaTauri too), and Leclerc as well. Mercedes weirdly off the pace. Improved a bit in second practice. Could be Verstappen's best shot at pole this year.
I'd be more tempted by either the straight win odds (circa 5.5) on Betfair or Ladbrokes each way qualifying (third the odds top 2, odds just a little shorter) than the each way win of 4.33. If Mercedes properly sort themselves out then there's every chance it'll be another 1-2 at the chequered flag. If they don't, Verstappen has a great chance.
Johnson is a pragmatist. He has no scruples or principles so he won't give a fig about settling for something completely different from what Cummings wanted, especially as he isn't really a 'true believer' in Brexit.
https://twitter.com/LEGO_Group/status/1327250070392238081
Edited extra bit: a tasty Christmas gift indeed. If they have room for it.
Tory Grandees like Redwood, JRM, Chope, Bridgen, Francois and Phillip Davies own Boris. Johnson sold his soul to them for his ultimate prize.
He might get away with kicking the can down the road for one last time, but capitulation to the EU will come at a heavy price.
Biden 1.07
Democrats 1.07
Biden PV Win 1.03
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02
State betting:-
AZ Dem 1.04
GA Dem 1.06
MI Dem 1.04
NV Dem 1.04
NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
PA Dem 1.07
WI Dem 1.07
During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.
Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).
Suppose he does not and we get No Deal - surely the effects of that on people who have been promised that there was no downside and 'sunlit uplands' will likely finish him more completely?
His best bet is to agree with what the EU wants and get them to give him some sort of face saving form of words which he can sell to us.
There are no good options for him.
https://twitter.com/stevennelson10/status/1327339133623296001
https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1327359488467349504
It won’t have taken her long to identify the problems that the two spotty teenagers in the tent were creating. Nor is it a surprise that Symonds became her ally.
Conversely, Cummings and Cain relied upon exclusive access and their own dominant position to get their way - because they don’t have the people skills to get what they want other than by issuing orders. It will have dawned on them that Stratton’s appointment hugely undermined their power.
I do remember really liking the Technik dinosaur I had, and discovered stepping on it was not entirely pleasant.
Johnson, ably assisted by Cummings lodged himself between this rock and a hard place.
If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
Maybe, seeing this childish behaviour they are tired of him now, but a lot weren't while voting!
This is a government with a majority of 80. Blaming someone ejected from politics for what’s happening now is less than convincing.
As others have said, anything that looks and smells like another EU extension will give Graham Brady’s postman a hernia.
Mr. Pete, as you may've observed, I also think Boris Johnson is a moron. That doesn't mean the strategic idiocy in crowing over tactical Commons victories by overtly pro-EU MPs wasn't fantastic in its self-defeating delinquency.
The likes of Grieve and pro-EU Labour MPs who shunned May's deal repeatedly won the Battle of Najera. But they didn't like the day after when the wages had to be paid and it turned out the victory was effort expended for the privilege of a loss.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/latest-updates-biden-trump-election-2020/card/JoZ9MsykGqwQ8EA40uul
My favourite using an eye chart was for a beer ad.
A Polish guy goes to the optician
'Can you read the bottom line?'
'Read it! I know the fella'
The PM deserves a lot of blame for many things, but he is far from the only one.
It is difficult to believe that bust ups of the scale we have seen this week aren't at root about policy.
We shall see.
I suspect there is more time than David allows for: some way will be found to keep talking beyond this week.
Wave slogans goodbye.
I can report universal delight amongst my mates who have been texting the last 24 hours. He has been literally hated by many in this country since Barnard Castle.
https://www.brewdog.com/uk/shop/shopall/barnard-castle-eye-test-24?gclid=Cj0KCQiAnb79BRDgARIsAOVbhRqeMXck0Tukdcwh2j8A0qUAlfBrNNqosHN-jRuQO58ECfNEKIP6GncaAgHkEALw_wcB
In 2016 Trump won by 47,000 votes
I project that Biden has SLASHED that lead and CRUSHED it to a mere 30,000.
I’m not defending their tardiness in settling, just trying to work out what they are doing. Those who are being allowed, some might say encouraged, still to place bets on Trump might feel aggrieved once they lose.
But it doesn't. It talks about "projected".
The majority according to opinion polls would have been happy to reverse the referendum result. That option was not given, instead they had to choose between Boris and Corbyn - with Boris also promising to remove Brexit as a problem by 'getting it done'. Does anybody still think that he will remove it as a problem?
'Rage against the dying of the light. Do not go gentle into that goodnight!'
The five include: Andrea Delgado, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the United Farm Workers Foundation; Celeste Drake, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the Directors Guild of America; Josh Nassar, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the United Auto Workers; LaQuita Honeysucker, who was registered as a lobbyist for the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union until earlier this year; and Scott Frey, who was registered as a lobbyist for the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees until earlier this year...
The list of former lobbyists also includes those for environmental, labour and education stuff.
I’m not sure how much you can read into this stuff given just how many of those involved in US politics have been lobbyists of one form or another at some stage of their career.
Leavers had about a hundred weeks where they could have sealed a deal in the last parliament - still failed and should be held accountable.
Only a handful of MPs came out of it with any credit, likes of Clarke, Boles who were willing to put a deal, almost any deal, ahead of party and no deal. Remainers did make costly mistakes but assigning them most of the blame is indeed absurd.
At a pinch I might add fear of Goveite plots. I do not think it a fiendishly clever #ClassicDom ploy to deceive the EU into granting last-minute concessions.
Therefore the fact that the market is open and matching millions per day is very important for those who want to understand how it will be settled rather than how they think it should be settled.
Settling on projected EC votes after state certification is certainly within their reasonable discretion and seems to be their plan.
I didn't hear you or others complaining during the multiple times I've excoriated the PM for his exciting array of defects.
You can praise Alexander and still have room to admire Craterus.
Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...
People here have given too much weight to the word projected. It doesnt say projected by the media, or projected a week after the election. On the morning after the election the general projection was Trump had won after all.
I am getting pretty fed up now. It is clear Biden has won. There is no doubt that the networks settled projection is correct. No legal challenge has got out of first base and indeed lawyers are refusing to continue to work on the pointless actions.
Pay up BF.
Dom's gone..the bus has gone...get it on!
From Keir to eternity!
Biden has won, and Trump's hurt feelings over the result are irrelevant. The result is in, and Betfair is damaging its own reputation with its customers by not settling.
He needs a Deal, so that Brexit is Done. The deal needs to have an extension, because we're not ready for anything else. He needs to be able to sell it as a victory over the EU.
Those are the fundamental imperatives for Johnson. I've no idea how that translates to the fundamental imperatives for the EU.
I do wonder whether it would have been easier for Johnson to sell a deal with Cummings in place than without him. The space for a deal may have narrowed, even if the willingness to make one has increased.
The second is that the formula to adopt with regard to likelihoods is a single question: What is the best option for keeping Boris being PM right now?
The short term effect of a No Deal on many industries (10% tariff, logistics of just in time, delay and all that) is so destructive with immediate effect that no PM's position could be safe.
So a deal is easily the most likely outcome, with compromises under the protective cover of pandemic emergency and public incomprehension.