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Cummings going opens up a little UK-EU trade window. But only a little one – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 14 in General
imageCummings going opens up a little UK-EU trade window. But only a little one – politicalbetting.com

Coincidence? Maybe. Dominic Cummings’ departure from Downing Street has been a long time coming. Ever since that fateful dash to County Durham during the first lockdown was revealed to the media, he’s been a man living on borrowed time. But then he always was.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • UK sources indicated there had been no breakthrough this week between the UK's negotiator David Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier, with the two ending their discussions in a similar position to how they started them.

    An EU source familiar with the process said one of their meetings had been "short and brutal".

    BBC News - EU-UK talks: 'Make or break' moment approaching, say both sides
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54935034
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,870
    edited November 14
    I totally agree David. There's no way the EU will give ground to anything like the extent required to make a deal possible, there are simply far too many areas of disagreement. Things might be different if we were simply talking about a few tens of millions of pounds worth of fish every year.
    Boris' problem is that should he attempt to give ground to any meaningful extent then he's finished as PM totally and utterly and he must know that this is the case.

    Second ... yet again, btw.
  • Five mourners died of Covid after attending a lockdown 'street party' wake alongside hundreds of people after a funeral in Birmingham, a councillor told mosque leaders today.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8946861/Covid-kills-FIVE-revellers-went-lockdown-street-party.html
  • It took a bit longer than I expected....but yet again it feels as though Europe is about to split the Tories one more time..... not sure if it is the start of BJ's fall though
  • It's quite extraordinary how positively the betting markets continue to view the likelihood of a deal being done by the year end. The sheer volume of work involved strongly suggests that this is becoming increasingly unlikely.
    Despite this, Smarkets has the odds on Yes such, a deal being concluded, at decimal odds of 1.18, i.e. a tad better than 1/6 in old money, whereas the odds against such a deal are decimal 5.5 or 9/2 expressed as a fraction and I've helped myself to a tenner's worth at these odds.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,065
    The cat was let out of the bag in some of the leaks after the Cummings row first blew up. There will be an extension.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,134
    Can the UK and the Council just agree an extension to the transition or would that take a new treaty that everybody and their dog has to ratify?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,071
    The thing is that the vast majority of people have no interest whatsoever in the detail of these negotiations.

    People who voted Leave did so for cultural / psychological reasons - they just wanted to "Leave". They couldn't care less about the details of trade negotiations - indeed most were quite happy with the Common Market - they are expecting the UK to continue trading with the EU. The precise terms are completely outside their knowledge / thinking.

    So there is no point in Boris dying in a ditch - he just needs to get a deal, literally any deal, say we've Left, it's job done and move on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,065

    Can the UK and the Council just agree an extension to the transition or would that take a new treaty that everybody and their dog has to ratify?

    The WA has a process within it for the joint committee to amend it "to address omissions or other deficiencies, or to address situations unforeseen when this Agreement was signed". They just need to decide to waive the deadline for an extension in the light of the pandemic.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 9,213

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 5,499

    Can the UK and the Council just agree an extension to the transition or would that take a new treaty that everybody and their dog has to ratify?

    The WA has a process within it for the joint committee to amend it "to address omissions or other deficiencies, or to address situations unforeseen when this Agreement was signed". They just need to decide to waive the deadline for an extension in the light of the pandemic.
    The backbench loons will smell a rat, but yes extension is now the most likely outcome.

    Explains why Frost was said to be “considering resigning”.

    Boris doesn’t really have any choice.
    It’s the less shite of the three options on the table.
  • Morning all. You already know what I think will happen so I won't post it again. What is worth remembering is that Shagger is an expert liar. He said that no Tory PM would put a border down the Irish Sea, then put a border down the Irish Sea, then lied that he hadn't, then got on with instructing the civil service to get setting one up then repeated that there would be no border.

    So his capitulation to Europe will be masked by him proclaiming victory - and by much of the party going along with it. That's his other advantage - so many of the 2019 Tory intake have demonstrated their moral cowardice by going along with whatever he says even if that changes from week to week.

    It will be his greatest triumph when we agree a continuation deal, and how unpatriotic of anyone to question it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    While I hope, really hope, we don't crash out on 31st Dec., with all the disruption and misery that will cause. I still think it's a possibility.
    What we must hope is that Johnson's new string-pullers, Carrie and Allegra, are not as obdurate as Cummings. Anyone know what their views are likely to be?

    I'd write 'good morning' too, but just at the moment it doesn't feel, or look, like it. On all sorts of fronts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,566

    Can the UK and the Council just agree an extension to the transition or would that take a new treaty that everybody and their dog has to ratify?

    The WA has a process within it for the joint committee to amend it "to address omissions or other deficiencies, or to address situations unforeseen when this Agreement was signed". They just need to decide to waive the deadline for an extension in the light of the pandemic.
    The backbench loons will smell a rat, but yes extension is now the most likely outcome.

    Explains why Frost was said to be “considering resigning”.

    Boris doesn’t really have any choice.
    It’s the less shite of the three options on the table.
    It really shows how shite Brexit actually is, that even a Brexiteer Tory party keeps wanting to postpone the inevitable carnage.

    I am not sure that extension is a serious option though, as we missed the deadline to extend in July.

    Don't forget that being in cabinet required only two things. Loyalty to BoZo, and willingness to car crash Brexit. Buckle up!, Car Crash Brexit here we come.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    edited November 14

    Can the UK and the Council just agree an extension to the transition or would that take a new treaty that everybody and their dog has to ratify?

    The WA has a process within it for the joint committee to amend it "to address omissions or other deficiencies, or to address situations unforeseen when this Agreement was signed". They just need to decide to waive the deadline for an extension in the light of the pandemic.
    The backbench loons will smell a rat, but yes extension is now the most likely outcome.

    Explains why Frost was said to be “considering resigning”.

    Boris doesn’t really have any choice.
    It’s the less shite of the three options on the table.
    And it’s the only route that appears to resolve the conundrum posed but not resolved by the lead - if there is a link between Cummo’s going and what Bozo is about to do on Brexit, then the latter must be about to do something that the former doesn’t like. Drifting to no deal isn’t that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    Morning all. You already know what I think will happen so I won't post it again. What is worth remembering is that Shagger is an expert liar. He said that no Tory PM would put a border down the Irish Sea, then put a border down the Irish Sea, then lied that he hadn't, then got on with instructing the civil service to get setting one up then repeated that there would be no border.

    So his capitulation to Europe will be masked by him proclaiming victory - and by much of the party going along with it. That's his other advantage - so many of the 2019 Tory intake have demonstrated their moral cowardice by going along with whatever he says even if that changes from week to week.

    It will be his greatest triumph when we agree a continuation deal, and how unpatriotic of anyone to question it.

    And to think some people still struggle with the suggestion that he has much in common with Trump....
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 784
    Cummings’ departure might increase the chances of an inadvertent No Deal, as the other side think this means Boris will now cave and they don’t need to move at all.

    Hard to know the measure of things but this might be a serious miscalculation on the EU’s part, given the PM needs to convincingly sell whatever is agreed, to survive in office another year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    Guardian: “To think of the bridges burned and the damage done in the service of keeping this one rather brutal individual in a job, and to think that he is now leaving anyway, is just astonishing,” the former minister said. “It confirms what we have known for a long time: Boris only knows what he wants to do for the next 10 minutes. There is no serious plan.”

    Other have noted that the abrasive approach Cummings has exulted in – and the accompanying lack of alliances outside of his closest circle – may have finally cost him. As the backbencher Andrew Bridgen said earlier this year: “They say if you want a friend in politics, get a dog – well, Cummings would kick the dog as well.

    James Graham, author of the Channel 4 drama Brexit: the Uncivil War, suggested that his subject might have met the limits of his ruthless style. “He’s a curious mix politically of the sophisticated and the thuggish, which I think is what Benedict tried to play,” he said. “Winning a campaign that has a start and an end point is one thing. A campaign is a fight. But government can’t be a constant fight … I suspect against the backdrop of a pandemic, the party, and even the public’s appetite for politics that divides and provokes rather than unites and soothes has worn increasingly thin.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    And this:

    But a former Downing Street staffer warned that MPs expecting a permanent shift towards more collaboration with backbenchers would be left disappointed.

    “The contempt for MPs does not come from Dominic Cummings,” they said, “he’s just a harder version of the smiling frontman. The basic contempt comes from Boris Johnson. This is not a guy who does the Commons tearooms, who fraternises with fellow MPs. This is a guy who gets blown around by whatever storm; he has no political compass.

    “Cummings was his ultimate human shield, the lightning conductor for all the hostility from Whitehall and politicians but it is Johnson’s leadership that is the problem. He is an outsider, a personality. There’s very little seen of him building a support base within the party.”
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,365
    IanB2 said:

    And this:

    But a former Downing Street staffer warned that MPs expecting a permanent shift towards more collaboration with backbenchers would be left disappointed.

    “The contempt for MPs does not come from Dominic Cummings,” they said, “he’s just a harder version of the smiling frontman. The basic contempt comes from Boris Johnson. This is not a guy who does the Commons tearooms, who fraternises with fellow MPs. This is a guy who gets blown around by whatever storm; he has no political compass.

    “Cummings was his ultimate human shield, the lightning conductor for all the hostility from Whitehall and politicians but it is Johnson’s leadership that is the problem. He is an outsider, a personality. There’s very little seen of him building a support base within the party.”

    BiB - I am certain someone posted a tweet on here a few weeks, which said he was doing precisely that. Admittedly it was saying that that was a sign of trouble, but nevertheless, he was doing it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920

    It's quite extraordinary how positively the betting markets continue to view the likelihood of a deal being done by the year end. The sheer volume of work involved strongly suggests that this is becoming increasingly unlikely.
    Despite this, Smarkets has the odds on Yes such, a deal being concluded, at decimal odds of 1.18, i.e. a tad better than 1/6 in old money, whereas the odds against such a deal are decimal 5.5 or 9/2 expressed as a fraction and I've helped myself to a tenner's worth at these odds.

    The precedent of last year suggests a deal can be done in two shakes of a lamb's tail if the political will is there.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    And this:

    But a former Downing Street staffer warned that MPs expecting a permanent shift towards more collaboration with backbenchers would be left disappointed.

    “The contempt for MPs does not come from Dominic Cummings,” they said, “he’s just a harder version of the smiling frontman. The basic contempt comes from Boris Johnson. This is not a guy who does the Commons tearooms, who fraternises with fellow MPs. This is a guy who gets blown around by whatever storm; he has no political compass.

    “Cummings was his ultimate human shield, the lightning conductor for all the hostility from Whitehall and politicians but it is Johnson’s leadership that is the problem. He is an outsider, a personality. There’s very little seen of him building a support base within the party.”

    BiB - I am certain someone posted a tweet on here a few weeks, which said he was doing precisely that. Admittedly it was saying that that was a sign of trouble, but nevertheless, he was doing it.
    The difference is doing it routinely/regularly to pick up the early indicators of trouble brewing long before decisions are taken that are difficult to reverse/head off opposition at an early stage. As opposed to doing it to try and recover an impossible position after disputes have gone public and decisions have already been taken.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    The Times today in no doubt that this is a Purge of Brexiteers.

    It's obviously linked to Trump's defeat.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a Brexit identical to Theresa May's deal ...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,365
    I haven't heard much about it recently, but I hope the departure of Cummings doesn't lead to the government ditching the plans to abolish two-tier councils. I can imagine that's something that Dom would be keen on, whilst the Tory Party (as opposed to its voters) might not like too much.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926
    I wonder if Johnson could even put names to faces for the majority of his MPs. Let alone know more than the most basic details about them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,365
    alex_ said:

    I wonder if Johnson could even put names to faces for the majority of his MPs. Let alone know more than the most basic details about them.

    I bet he could name Dehenna.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    Disgraceful that Betfair have not yet settled on either my Democrat Pennsylvania win or 300-329 Biden ECVs.

    Really really poor. We should have a thread rating the different betting sites.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: weird practice yesterday. Very slidy. Vestappen looking good (his team mate and AlphaTauri too), and Leclerc as well. Mercedes weirdly off the pace. Improved a bit in second practice. Could be Verstappen's best shot at pole this year.

    I'd be more tempted by either the straight win odds (circa 5.5) on Betfair or Ladbrokes each way qualifying (third the odds top 2, odds just a little shorter) than the each way win of 4.33. If Mercedes properly sort themselves out then there's every chance it'll be another 1-2 at the chequered flag. If they don't, Verstappen has a great chance.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,926

    The Times today in no doubt that this is a Purge of Brexiteers.

    It's obviously linked to Trump's defeat.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a Brexit identical to Theresa May's deal ...

    Well I suppose it’s a possibility (with a twist). May’s backstop (Customs Union) on a time limited basis (say 2 years) reverting to the current WA Irish backstop thereafter...
  • It's quite extraordinary how positively the betting markets continue to view the likelihood of a deal being done by the year end. The sheer volume of work involved strongly suggests that this is becoming increasingly unlikely.
    Despite this, Smarkets has the odds on Yes such, a deal being concluded, at decimal odds of 1.18, i.e. a tad better than 1/6 in old money, whereas the odds against such a deal are decimal 5.5 or 9/2 expressed as a fraction and I've helped myself to a tenner's worth at these odds.

    Be careful. The Smarkets definition of a deal is wide: "any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal".
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,074
    alex_ said:

    The Times today in no doubt that this is a Purge of Brexiteers.

    It's obviously linked to Trump's defeat.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a Brexit identical to Theresa May's deal ...

    Well I suppose it’s a possibility (with a twist). May’s backstop (Customs Union) on a time limited basis (say 2 years) reverting to the current WA Irish backstop thereafter...
    Yes. Biden will be pushing all out to protect the Northern Ireland peace process and he is very pro the EU who will be right on board with that.

    Johnson is a pragmatist. He has no scruples or principles so he won't give a fig about settling for something completely different from what Cummings wanted, especially as he isn't really a 'true believer' in Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    edited November 14
    If we have a Customs Union what are we going to do with all the lorry parks?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    edited November 14
    Incidentally, if you're bloody rich (and some of you are) and have a child/nephew/niece into Lego...



    Edited extra bit: a tasty Christmas gift indeed. If they have room for it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,734
    MikeL said:

    The thing is that the vast majority of people have no interest whatsoever in the detail of these negotiations.

    People who voted Leave did so for cultural / psychological reasons - they just wanted to "Leave". They couldn't care less about the details of trade negotiations - indeed most were quite happy with the Common Market - they are expecting the UK to continue trading with the EU. The precise terms are completely outside their knowledge / thinking.

    So there is no point in Boris dying in a ditch - he just needs to get a deal, literally any deal, say we've Left, it's job done and move on.

    "No deal is better than a bad deal".

    Tory Grandees like Redwood, JRM, Chope, Bridgen, Francois and Phillip Davies own Boris. Johnson sold his soul to them for his ultimate prize.

    He might get away with kicking the can down the road for one last time, but capitulation to the EU will come at a heavy price.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    edited November 14
    Never thought I'd see the words Francois and grandee associated. Or Bridgen and Davies come to that!
  • Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,734

    Never thought I'd see the words Francois and grandee associated. Or Bridgen and Davies come to that!

    Boris handed them the party. The old school like Grieve were ejected last year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Can the UK and the Council just agree an extension to the transition or would that take a new treaty that everybody and their dog has to ratify?

    The WA has a process within it for the joint committee to amend it "to address omissions or other deficiencies, or to address situations unforeseen when this Agreement was signed". They just need to decide to waive the deadline for an extension in the light of the pandemic.
    That presumably means dropping the objectionable bits of Internal Markets Bill, too ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,784

    I totally agree David. There's no way the EU will give ground to anything like the extent required to make a deal possible, there are simply far too many areas of disagreement. Things might be different if we were simply talking about a few tens of millions of pounds worth of fish every year.
    Boris' problem is that should he attempt to give ground to any meaningful extent then he's finished as PM totally and utterly and he must know that this is the case.

    Second ... yet again, btw.

    You say that if Boris gives significant ground he will be finished.
    Suppose he does not and we get No Deal - surely the effects of that on people who have been promised that there was no downside and 'sunlit uplands' will likely finish him more completely?
    His best bet is to agree with what the EU wants and get them to give him some sort of face saving form of words which he can sell to us.
    There are no good options for him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    Incidentally, if you're bloody rich (and some of you are) and have a child/nephew/niece into Lego...



    Edited extra bit: a tasty Christmas gift indeed. If they have room for it.
    Is there a pack of Lego lions and Christians, so you can play with it when it’s finished?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    It is, of course, nothing short of criminal that the CDC has bee muzzled for months by Trump. Things like the downplaying of the efficacy of masks, beyond the point where the evidence for them was utterly undeniable, and for nothing other than ideological reasons, will have cost lives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    edited November 14
    Stratton is the grown up in the room. She can’t have taken the job without various assurances about her access and freedom to act, and as the new member of the team, she has the leverage to make sure these are delivered.

    It won’t have taken her long to identify the problems that the two spotty teenagers in the tent were creating. Nor is it a surprise that Symonds became her ally.

    Conversely, Cummings and Cain relied upon exclusive access and their own dominant position to get their way - because they don’t have the people skills to get what they want other than by issuing orders. It will have dawned on them that Stratton’s appointment hugely undermined their power.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. B2, must admit to not being up to date on Lego these days.

    I do remember really liking the Technik dinosaur I had, and discovered stepping on it was not entirely pleasant.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,784

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    edited November 14

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
    Trump still got the second highest vote anyone's ever got, though.

    Maybe, seeing this childish behaviour they are tired of him now, but a lot weren't while voting!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    So what ?
    This is a government with a majority of 80. Blaming someone ejected from politics for what’s happening now is less than convincing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194
    So what’s worse, having the PM’s SpAd running the show, or having the PM’s 32 year old girlfriend, who has no official position at all, doing so?

    As others have said, anything that looks and smells like another EU extension will give Graham Brady’s postman a hernia.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Song, someone else had the interesting observation, which I think was backed up by polling, last year that voters wanted the EU matter resolved cleanly, with the extremes (either staying in, as was, or leaving with no deal) surprisingly popular compared to prolonged negotiations.

    Mr. Pete, as you may've observed, I also think Boris Johnson is a moron. That doesn't mean the strategic idiocy in crowing over tactical Commons victories by overtly pro-EU MPs wasn't fantastic in its self-defeating delinquency.

    The likes of Grieve and pro-EU Labour MPs who shunned May's deal repeatedly won the Battle of Najera. But they didn't like the day after when the wages had to be paid and it turned out the victory was effort expended for the privilege of a loss.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
    Back to normality: 40 lobbyists on Biden transition team.
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/latest-updates-biden-trump-election-2020/card/JoZ9MsykGqwQ8EA40uul
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited November 14

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    I am not sure how Grieve and his band of former-Remainer Tories got us into this situation. I don't believe they did.

    Johnson, ably assisted by Cummings lodged himself between this rock and a hard place.
    Indeed, very much as well as May, and the idea he did is absurd. He only even got invobved at all once Theresa May began to tout the option of No Deal without the most cursory parliamentary procedure, just as opinion had only begun to really splinter earlier on once May rejected a Norway option because of free movement. The whole attempt to blame Remainers is absurd.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,311
    Scott_xP said:


    Not a great line by Brookes.

    My favourite using an eye chart was for a beer ad.

    A Polish guy goes to the optician

    'Can you read the bottom line?'

    'Read it! I know the fella'
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. B, that's like arguing a driver should take the sole blame for where the car is, when the previous (ejected) driver took the car 100 miles in the wrong direction.

    The PM deserves a lot of blame for many things, but he is far from the only one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,624
    Excellent header, thanks David.

    It is difficult to believe that bust ups of the scale we have seen this week aren't at root about policy.

    We shall see.

    I suspect there is more time than David allows for: some way will be found to keep talking beyond this week.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,995

    Never thought I'd see the words Francois and grandee associated.

    Aye, other words spring to mind more readily..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Mr. B, that's like arguing a driver should take the sole blame for where the car is, when the previous (ejected) driver took the car 100 miles in the wrong direction.

    The PM deserves a lot of blame for many things, but he is far from the only one.

    The implication that Grieve was the previous driver and somehow Johnson had no prior involvement is silly beyond words.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,355
    Cummings got done.

    Wave slogans goodbye.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,624
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:


    Not a great line by Brookes.

    My favourite using an eye chart was for a beer ad.

    A Polish guy goes to the optician

    'Can you read the bottom line?'

    'Read it! I know the fella'
    Cummings looks a bit well dressed in that cartoon.

    I can report universal delight amongst my mates who have been texting the last 24 hours. He has been literally hated by many in this country since Barnard Castle.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,995
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
    Back to normality: 40 lobbyists on Biden transition team.
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/latest-updates-biden-trump-election-2020/card/JoZ9MsykGqwQ8EA40uul
    At least they won't all be members of his family I assume?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 5,310
    edited November 14
    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    There is a paradox Betfair should be mindful of. Their rules say (at least in some markets) that settlement will be on the basis of projections from the election results, notwithstanding later developments. That is fine, and how bookmakers have settled. The trouble is the longer Betfair waits to see what happens, the more they are susceptible to being sued for not acting on a black swan event that happens *before* they settle.
  • Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:


    Not a great line by Brookes.

    My favourite using an eye chart was for a beer ad.

    A Polish guy goes to the optician

    'Can you read the bottom line?'

    'Read it! I know the fella'
    Cummings looks a bit well dressed in that cartoon.

    I can report universal delight amongst my mates who have been texting the last 24 hours. He has been literally hated by many in this country since Barnard Castle.
    Indeed.

    https://www.brewdog.com/uk/shop/shopall/barnard-castle-eye-test-24?gclid=Cj0KCQiAnb79BRDgARIsAOVbhRqeMXck0Tukdcwh2j8A0qUAlfBrNNqosHN-jRuQO58ECfNEKIP6GncaAgHkEALw_wcB
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    Sandpit said:

    So what’s worse, having the PM’s SpAd running the show, or having the PM’s 32 year old girlfriend, who has no official position at all, doing so?

    As others have said, anything that looks and smells like another EU extension will give Graham Brady’s postman a hernia.

    Sadly, the politically easiest way to get to some sort of 'status quo extended' deal is to get to Jan 1st without a deal and then use the ensuing media storm over the chaos at Dover and the export/import businesses going to the wall to pivot to a softer Brexit and allow any opposition from the Brexit nutters to be batted away.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,436

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    Grieve ended up voting against his own amendment, such was the mess the Remainers got into.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    Sandpit said:

    So what’s worse, having the PM’s SpAd running the show, or having the PM’s 32 year old girlfriend, who has no official position at all, doing so?

    As others have said, anything that looks and smells like another EU extension will give Graham Brady’s postman a hernia.

    Sadly, the politically easiest way to get to some sort of 'status quo extended' deal is to get to Jan 1st without a deal and then use the ensuing media storm over the chaos at Dover and the export/import businesses going to the wall to pivot to a softer Brexit and allow any opposition from the Brexit nutters to be batted away.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,436

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
    Back to normality: 40 lobbyists on Biden transition team.
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/latest-updates-biden-trump-election-2020/card/JoZ9MsykGqwQ8EA40uul
    At least they won't all be members of his family I assume?
    Just all Ukranians...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited November 14
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
    Back to normality: 40 lobbyists on Biden transition team.
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/latest-updates-biden-trump-election-2020/card/JoZ9MsykGqwQ8EA40uul
    Oh dear. That sounds like the Biden of Clyburn support for his nomination at a crucial moment, who was very likely to have been rewarded for being softer on the health insurance industry than Bernie Sanders, rather than the kind of Biden appealing to both blue collar Americans and environmentalists that might help keep Trump off next time.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 18,320
    ALASKA WATCH

    In 2016 Trump won by 47,000 votes

    I project that Biden has SLASHED that lead and CRUSHED it to a mere 30,000.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    There is a paradox Betfair should be mindful of. Their rules say (at least in some markets) that settlement will be on the basis of projections from the election results, notwithstanding later developments. That is fine, and how bookmakers have settled. The trouble is the longer Betfair waits to see what happens, the more they are susceptible to being sued for not acting on a black swan event that happens *before* they settle.
    A fair point.
    I’m not defending their tardiness in settling, just trying to work out what they are doing. Those who are being allowed, some might say encouraged, still to place bets on Trump might feel aggrieved once they lose.
  • Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:


    Not a great line by Brookes.

    My favourite using an eye chart was for a beer ad.

    A Polish guy goes to the optician

    'Can you read the bottom line?'

    'Read it! I know the fella'
    Cummings looks a bit well dressed in that cartoon.

    I can report universal delight amongst my mates who have been texting the last 24 hours. He has been literally hated by many in this country since Barnard Castle.
    The trouble with Cummings' demise is that it ends my small, childish pleasure in observing that cartoonists could never agree whether to draw him with or without glasses.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,624
    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    The problem is lack of clarity in the rules. If they had said this betting market will be settled on the day the college actually meets to sign off on the ECV vote from the individual states then we wouldn't be bothered.

    But it doesn't. It talks about "projected".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. B, yep, because at no stage did May lose any votes for a softer departure more to the liking of pro-EU MPs....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,784

    Mr. Song, someone else had the interesting observation, which I think was backed up by polling, last year that voters wanted the EU matter resolved cleanly, with the extremes (either staying in, as was, or leaving with no deal) surprisingly popular compared to prolonged negotiations.

    Mr. Pete, as you may've observed, I also think Boris Johnson is a moron. That doesn't mean the strategic idiocy in crowing over tactical Commons victories by overtly pro-EU MPs wasn't fantastic in its self-defeating delinquency.

    The likes of Grieve and pro-EU Labour MPs who shunned May's deal repeatedly won the Battle of Najera. But they didn't like the day after when the wages had to be paid and it turned out the victory was effort expended for the privilege of a loss.

    I think that voters wanted 'Brexit', the 'EU' and parliamentary debates on it to 'go away' and not fill the airwaves any more. I think that many were bored of the whole subject.
    The majority according to opinion polls would have been happy to reverse the referendum result. That option was not given, instead they had to choose between Boris and Corbyn - with Boris also promising to remove Brexit as a problem by 'getting it done'. Does anybody still think that he will remove it as a problem?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,624
    alex_ said:

    I wonder if Johnson could even put names to faces for the majority of his MPs. Let alone know more than the most basic details about them.

    He's heard a rumour some of them are from the North.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    The problem is lack of clarity in the rules. If they had said this betting market will be settled on the day the college actually meets to sign off on the ECV vote from the individual states then we wouldn't be bothered.

    But it doesn't. It talks about "projected".
    I read "projected" purely to mean that they will settle based on how the EC members are supposed to vote, rather than how any who switch sides actually vote?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,311

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    I like the sound of a ' new Faragian political vehicle'. Possibly one of the few remaining ways this referendum result can be delayed and ultimately reversed. if necessary with a new referendum

    'Rage against the dying of the light. Do not go gentle into that goodnight!'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
    Back to normality: 40 lobbyists on Biden transition team.
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/latest-updates-biden-trump-election-2020/card/JoZ9MsykGqwQ8EA40uul
    Oh dear. That sounds like the Biden of Clyburn support for his nomination at a crucial moment, who was very likely to have been rewarded for being softer on the health insurance industry than Bernie Sanders, rather than the kind of Biden appealing to both blue collar Americans and environmentalists that might help keep Trump off next time.
    Given the identities of the current lobbyists who required a waiver, I’m not sure that’s a correct characterisation.
    The five include: Andrea Delgado, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the United Farm Workers Foundation; Celeste Drake, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the Directors Guild of America; Josh Nassar, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the United Auto Workers; LaQuita Honeysucker, who was registered as a lobbyist for the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union until earlier this year; and Scott Frey, who was registered as a lobbyist for the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees until earlier this year...

    The list of former lobbyists also includes those for environmental, labour and education stuff.
    I’m not sure how much you can read into this stuff given just how many of those involved in US politics have been lobbyists of one form or another at some stage of their career.
  • Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    I am not sure how Grieve and his band of former-Remainer Tories got us into this situation. I don't believe they did.

    Johnson, ably assisted by Cummings lodged himself between this rock and a hard place.
    Indeed, very much as well as May, and the idea he did is absurd. He only even got invobved at all once Theresa May began to tout the option of No Deal without the most cursory parliamentary procedure, just as opinion had only begun to really splinter earlier on once May rejected a Norway option because of free movement. The whole attempt to blame Remainers is absurd.
    Remainers had one or two weeks where they could have sealed a deal in the last parliament - they did not make the most of their time, failed and should be held accountable.

    Leavers had about a hundred weeks where they could have sealed a deal in the last parliament - still failed and should be held accountable.

    Only a handful of MPs came out of it with any credit, likes of Clarke, Boles who were willing to put a deal, almost any deal, ahead of party and no deal. Remainers did make costly mistakes but assigning them most of the blame is indeed absurd.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,355
    We have two Trumps, Boris Trump and Nigel Trump. Not sure there is room for two.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,031
    edited November 14
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
    Back to normality: 40 lobbyists on Biden transition team.
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/latest-updates-biden-trump-election-2020/card/JoZ9MsykGqwQ8EA40uul
    Oh dear. That sounds like the Biden of Clyburn support for his nomination at a crucial moment, who was very likely to have been rewarded for being softer on the health insurance industry than Bernie Sanders, rather than the kind of Biden appealing to both blue collar Americans and environmentalists that might help keep Trump off next time.
    Given the identities of the current lobbyists who required a waiver, I’m not sure that’s a correct characterisation.
    The five include: Andrea Delgado, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the United Farm Workers Foundation; Celeste Drake, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the Directors Guild of America; Josh Nassar, who is currently registered as a lobbyist for the United Auto Workers; LaQuita Honeysucker, who was registered as a lobbyist for the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union until earlier this year; and Scott Frey, who was registered as a lobbyist for the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees until earlier this year...

    The list of former lobbyists also includes those for environmental, labour and education stuff.
    I’m not sure how much you can read into this stuff given just how many of those involved in US politics have been lobbyists of one form or another at some stage of their career.
    Point taken. Who comes under the heading of lobbyist in the US, because of its unreformed system in this respect, can definitely extend well beyond the usual social definition here. Those aren't the sort of names I was imagining, given part of Biden's previous record, and LaQuita Honeysucker definitely sounds particularly appeaing also.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. Roger, it'd be fitting with the current times if I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP weakened the Conservative vote sufficiently for Starmer (possibly in coalition) to have another referendum on rejoining.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860

    Mr. B, yep, because at no stage did May lose any votes for a softer departure more to the liking of pro-EU MPs....

    If it makes you happy to blame someone no longer an MP for where we are now, then so be it.
  • Excellent header, thanks David.

    It is difficult to believe that bust ups of the scale we have seen this week aren't at root about policy.

    We shall see.

    I suspect there is more time than David allows for: some way will be found to keep talking beyond this week.

    Tbh I can easily believe the bust-up was not Brexit-related but really was due to rudeness about Carrie (who at least for the moment is the love of the PM's life and mother of his child). Politics is often personal. Remember Mrs Thatcher tossed Jonathan Aitken into outer darkness after he broke up with Carol.

    At a pinch I might add fear of Goveite plots. I do not think it a fiendishly clever #ClassicDom ploy to deceive the EU into granting last-minute concessions.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    There is a paradox Betfair should be mindful of. Their rules say (at least in some markets) that settlement will be on the basis of projections from the election results, notwithstanding later developments. That is fine, and how bookmakers have settled. The trouble is the longer Betfair waits to see what happens, the more they are susceptible to being sued for not acting on a black swan event that happens *before* they settle.
    A fair point.
    I’m not defending their tardiness in settling, just trying to work out what they are doing. Those who are being allowed, some might say encouraged, still to place bets on Trump might feel aggrieved once they lose.
    There is a principle in betting that you cant bet after the result is known, or the bet doesnt stand.

    Therefore the fact that the market is open and matching millions per day is very important for those who want to understand how it will be settled rather than how they think it should be settled.

    Settling on projected EC votes after state certification is certainly within their reasonable discretion and seems to be their plan.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,026
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    So what’s worse, having the PM’s SpAd running the show, or having the PM’s 32 year old girlfriend, who has no official position at all, doing so?

    As others have said, anything that looks and smells like another EU extension will give Graham Brady’s postman a hernia.

    Sadly, the politically easiest way to get to some sort of 'status quo extended' deal is to get to Jan 1st without a deal and then use the ensuing media storm over the chaos at Dover and the export/import businesses going to the wall to pivot to a softer Brexit and allow any opposition from the Brexit nutters to be batted away.

    Any businesses that go bust as a result can take solace that their sacrifice spared the Tory party the agony of having to make a decision.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Pete, Grieve was a fool.

    During one of the contentious votes he was a rebel leader who was offered what he wanted and cried in the Commons that it was 'too late'.

    Turns out refusing compromises specifically requested and refusing to back anything like May's softer departure made things harder to achieve, not easier. Now we have a situation approaching with no deal or capitulation the only two seeming alternatives (and the latter would be the perfect start for a new Faragian political vehicle).

    In the US voters have tired of Trump and want steadiness and normality back. Maybe we here in the UK are similarly becoming less susceptible to Farage's uncompromising stance on the EU.
    Back to normality: 40 lobbyists on Biden transition team.
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/latest-updates-biden-trump-election-2020/card/JoZ9MsykGqwQ8EA40uul
    Going back to a normal machine politician will be such a relief, in contrast to someone who - perhaps arguably - is psychiatrically ill.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,298
    Mr. B, it makes me content to recall history accurately, and modern events even more so.

    I didn't hear you or others complaining during the multiple times I've excoriated the PM for his exciting array of defects.

    You can praise Alexander and still have room to admire Craterus.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,311
    Jonathan said:

    Cummings got done.

    Wave slogans goodbye.

    Absolutely.....

    Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...Dom Got Done...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,920

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    There is a paradox Betfair should be mindful of. Their rules say (at least in some markets) that settlement will be on the basis of projections from the election results, notwithstanding later developments. That is fine, and how bookmakers have settled. The trouble is the longer Betfair waits to see what happens, the more they are susceptible to being sued for not acting on a black swan event that happens *before* they settle.
    A fair point.
    I’m not defending their tardiness in settling, just trying to work out what they are doing. Those who are being allowed, some might say encouraged, still to place bets on Trump might feel aggrieved once they lose.
    There is a principle in betting that you cant bet after the result is known, or the bet doesnt stand.

    Therefore the fact that the market is open and matching millions per day is very important for those who want to understand how it will be settled rather than how they think it should be settled.

    Settling on projected EC votes after state certification is certainly within their reasonable discretion and seems to be their plan.
    If so, they could have said so, rather than saying something whose natural interpretation is quite different.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    MikeL said:

    The thing is that the vast majority of people have no interest whatsoever in the detail of these negotiations.

    People who voted Leave did so for cultural / psychological reasons - they just wanted to "Leave". They couldn't care less about the details of trade negotiations - indeed most were quite happy with the Common Market - they are expecting the UK to continue trading with the EU. The precise terms are completely outside their knowledge / thinking.

    So there is no point in Boris dying in a ditch - he just needs to get a deal, literally any deal, say we've Left, it's job done and move on.

    We have already left.
  • Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    There is a paradox Betfair should be mindful of. Their rules say (at least in some markets) that settlement will be on the basis of projections from the election results, notwithstanding later developments. That is fine, and how bookmakers have settled. The trouble is the longer Betfair waits to see what happens, the more they are susceptible to being sued for not acting on a black swan event that happens *before* they settle.
    A fair point.
    I’m not defending their tardiness in settling, just trying to work out what they are doing. Those who are being allowed, some might say encouraged, still to place bets on Trump might feel aggrieved once they lose.
    There is a principle in betting that you cant bet after the result is known, or the bet doesnt stand.

    Therefore the fact that the market is open and matching millions per day is very important for those who want to understand how it will be settled rather than how they think it should be settled.

    Settling on projected EC votes after state certification is certainly within their reasonable discretion and seems to be their plan.
    If so, they could have said so, rather than saying something whose natural interpretation is quite different.
    Of course, and they could and should add further clarity to the market now. When the market was created they probably didnt expect it to be contested when there was a clear winner.

    People here have given too much weight to the word projected. It doesnt say projected by the media, or projected a week after the election. On the morning after the election the general projection was Trump had won after all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,624
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    The problem is lack of clarity in the rules. If they had said this betting market will be settled on the day the college actually meets to sign off on the ECV vote from the individual states then we wouldn't be bothered.

    But it doesn't. It talks about "projected".
    I read "projected" purely to mean that they will settle based on how the EC members are supposed to vote, rather than how any who switch sides actually vote?
    Indeed. The rules specifically rule out "faithless" ECV voters.

    I am getting pretty fed up now. It is clear Biden has won. There is no doubt that the networks settled projection is correct. No legal challenge has got out of first base and indeed lawyers are refusing to continue to work on the pointless actions.

    Pay up BF.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    MikeL said:

    The thing is that the vast majority of people have no interest whatsoever in the detail of these negotiations.

    People who voted Leave did so for cultural / psychological reasons - they just wanted to "Leave". They couldn't care less about the details of trade negotiations - indeed most were quite happy with the Common Market - they are expecting the UK to continue trading with the EU. The precise terms are completely outside their knowledge / thinking.

    So there is no point in Boris dying in a ditch - he just needs to get a deal, literally any deal, say we've Left, it's job done and move on.

    We have already left.
    That's true, but in theory the implementation period could be extended and amended in nature.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 13,311

    Mr. Roger, it'd be fitting with the current times if I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP weakened the Conservative vote sufficiently for Starmer (possibly in coalition) to have another referendum on rejoining.


    Dom's gone..the bus has gone...get it on!

    From Keir to eternity!
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meanwhile, in Americaland, Betfair still has not read a newspaper and settled. Prices are:-

    Biden 1.07
    Democrats 1.07
    Biden PV Win 1.03
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.05
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.11
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.1
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.07
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02

    State betting:-
    AZ Dem 1.04
    GA Dem 1.06
    MI Dem 1.04
    NV Dem 1.04
    NC Rep no offers but you can lay Dem at 900
    PA Dem 1.07
    WI Dem 1.07

    I can just about understand it. There have been some very lumpy bets placed on Trump very recently, and as we know, rich Republican sympathisers can be very litigious. And it’s surely also the largest political betting book of anyone’s.
    If this goes on for much longer, though, it will become both stupid and dangerous to their reputation.
    There is a paradox Betfair should be mindful of. Their rules say (at least in some markets) that settlement will be on the basis of projections from the election results, notwithstanding later developments. That is fine, and how bookmakers have settled. The trouble is the longer Betfair waits to see what happens, the more they are susceptible to being sued for not acting on a black swan event that happens *before* they settle.
    A fair point.
    I’m not defending their tardiness in settling, just trying to work out what they are doing. Those who are being allowed, some might say encouraged, still to place bets on Trump might feel aggrieved once they lose.
    There is a principle in betting that you cant bet after the result is known, or the bet doesnt stand.

    Therefore the fact that the market is open and matching millions per day is very important for those who want to understand how it will be settled rather than how they think it should be settled.

    Settling on projected EC votes after state certification is certainly within their reasonable discretion and seems to be their plan.
    If so, they could have said so, rather than saying something whose natural interpretation is quite different.
    Of course, and they could and should add further clarity to the market now. When the market was created they probably didnt expect it to be contested when there was a clear winner.

    People here have given too much weight to the word projected. It doesnt say projected by the media, or projected a week after the election. On the morning after the election the general projection was Trump had won after all.
    This is shameful behaviour from Betfair. The election is over, and it could well be they're going to have to pay out despite it being "contested". In fact, the fact that it's "contested" is really quite uninteresting in terms of the outcome. Hell, the 2000 presidential election is still "contested", but we know who the winner was. And this is infinitely clearer than 2000.

    Biden has won, and Trump's hurt feelings over the result are irrelevant. The result is in, and Betfair is damaging its own reputation with its customers by not settling.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,215

    Can the UK and the Council just agree an extension to the transition or would that take a new treaty that everybody and their dog has to ratify?

    The WA has a process within it for the joint committee to amend it "to address omissions or other deficiencies, or to address situations unforeseen when this Agreement was signed". They just need to decide to waive the deadline for an extension in the light of the pandemic.
    The backbench loons will smell a rat, but yes extension is now the most likely outcome.

    Explains why Frost was said to be “considering resigning”.

    Boris doesn’t really have any choice.
    It’s the less shite of the three options on the table.
    I'd be quite relieved by extension, but I would have thought it was the one option most likely to lead to Cabinet resignations and sufficient letters to Brady to trigger the end of Johnson's Ministry.

    He needs a Deal, so that Brexit is Done. The deal needs to have an extension, because we're not ready for anything else. He needs to be able to sell it as a victory over the EU.

    Those are the fundamental imperatives for Johnson. I've no idea how that translates to the fundamental imperatives for the EU.

    I do wonder whether it would have been easier for Johnson to sell a deal with Cummings in place than without him. The space for a deal may have narrowed, even if the willingness to make one has increased.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,205
    I think there are two major difficulties with thinking the odds for No Deal are too long. The first, and less important, is that even a thin deal of some sort (single sector, transition extension etc) is none the less a deal.

    The second is that the formula to adopt with regard to likelihoods is a single question: What is the best option for keeping Boris being PM right now?

    The short term effect of a No Deal on many industries (10% tariff, logistics of just in time, delay and all that) is so destructive with immediate effect that no PM's position could be safe.

    So a deal is easily the most likely outcome, with compromises under the protective cover of pandemic emergency and public incomprehension.
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