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A Vaccine against Stupidity – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    kle4 said:
    I mean, this cannot be a serious sentence

    Charles will serve as king with Duchess Camilla by his side,” a source exclusively says in the new issue of Us Weekly. “This is something he’s dreamed about his entire life — he sees it as his birthright
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The last 24 hours must be the least volatile in the POTUS betting for a month
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    I mean, this cannot be a serious sentence

    Charles will serve as king with Duchess Camilla by his side,” a source exclusively says in the new issue of Us Weekly. “This is something he’s dreamed about his entire life — he sees it as his birthright
    Lol.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    geoffw said:
    Indeed. I have a new exclusive for them: "Day likely to follow night for the foreseeable".
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    I suppose Cain was not able to do the job.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    I've found down the decades if er-indoors isn't a happy bunny then it's best to concede gracefully and withdraw with ones genitalia firmly where it should be, so that if good lady infers that intimate relations might once again be in play then one is ready for a few rounds of bedroom sports.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    The cold storage issue is really not that serious: it doesn't require anything exotic, just dry ice and some insulation.

    And given we've gone from no capacity to quite a lot in just a few months, why wouldn't you expect it to keep growing?

    Plus, once we have healthworkers, care home workers, and the most vulnerable vaccinated, then we can start to ease up a bit too.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905
    alex_ said:

    How long before Trump notices the "previous President" comment by Johnson and explodes? Not that i have anything but contempt for Trump, but sounds like a major gaffe by Johnson to me. Firstly Trump isn't a previous President, and what's more i don't think Americans ever refer to their President in this way (once a President, always a President).

    Although maybe it WAS actually deliberate, and Johnson thinks it will help his popularity in the UK. Which it may well do. But i still think it was probably a slip of the tongue.

    I am not convinced that Johnson actually *thinks* about anything.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Left wing bad at slogans is my takeaway
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    alex_ said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    I mean, this cannot be a serious sentence

    Charles will serve as king with Duchess Camilla by his side,” a source exclusively says in the new issue of Us Weekly. “This is something he’s dreamed about his entire life — he sees it as his birthright
    Lol.
    Sylvie Krin moonlighting as Polly Filla or Philippa Space.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,699
    geoffw said:

    I suppose Cain was not able to do the job.

    Cain unable. It’s the same old story.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    @RochdalePioneers
    FPT - Re Trump 'Plan'

    Tony Schwarz who ghost-wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump was interviewed by Evan Davis on R4 earlier this evening. He basically answered your question for you.

    There is no plan, just a horror of losing and determination to deny it as long as possible.

    Appreciated. Trump and his inner cabal are morons. However, as he IS the president and wants to stay President. And the entire GOP leadership aren't morons. So there will be a plan even if it isn't his.

    As others elude to above, the Electoral College has to be the target. Doesn't matter what people think they voted for, they're voting for Electors. Who don't even have to represent their views.
    If the GoP Leadership has a plan it is to let it all play out. Wait for the EC to do its job, and take it from there. Trump will decide himself when it is time to fold. They can't influence that and it would be pointless to try.

    I don't see the ECs playing fast and loose with the electorate. What's to gain? Everything to lose.
    “ I don't see the ECs playing fast and loose with the electorate.”

    What about the argument you make it sound so easy for Republican leadership (those not already in Trump pocket)? Really their difficult choice is gerrymander the college so he stays on, or throw him to the wolves. Like the moment in Death of Stalin, press the button under the table so he is escorted out by the army, they don’t actually have a middle option?

    Unlike Kes, Death of Stalin really was like a documentary.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    geoffw said:

    I suppose Cain was not able to do the job.

    Cain unable. It’s the same old story.
    Would you Adam and Eve it!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Which is why the much maligned vaccine task force has prioritised building manufacturing capacity in the UK of 10m doses per month so we're not dependent on importing from nations that may put export bans in place.

    As I said earlier, this whole thread is just pointless. Vaccines are the one area where the government has been absolutely smashing it, the task force has come good and Cyclefree has built a house of cards against it.
  • This evening's Covanecdotes:

    1. One of our neighbours youngest child self isolating after a classmate tested positive. Under the rules, the rest of the family can carry on as normal. Bizarre.

    2. Friend of Wor Lass disclosed that she's had Long Covid for over 6 months. Normally fit and well, just totally lacking in energy.

    Mrs RP is self isolating because of coming into direct contact with a child at school who tested positive. I do not have to self isolate...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    I missed this earlier. We may have to put away the popcorn for the daily televised Allegra Show.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1326491672600064002

    The real question is whether he’ll still wear his chicken suit.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    No, not good that there was a day to be won in the first place. Can you imagine this happening under an adult PM with a grip on things? Under Thatcher?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    isam said:

    Blimey, those cops did well. Makes you appreciate the minor acts of heroism that go on every day.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720

    geoffw said:

    I suppose Cain was not able to do the job.

    Cain unable. It’s the same old story.
    Off to the land of Nod with him.

    (Me too, soon)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Throw into the mix, the big benevolent state buying up the stock then deciding who gets it versus allocation by price.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,699
    Trump is still stoking conspiracy theories.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1326630618831130624?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    edited November 2020
    Alistair said:
    I don't understand the commitment to the slogan. Since it doesn't mean what it seems like it would mean, there has to be a pithy way of saying what it does mean, so why the stubborness of some to keep using it?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:
    I mean, this cannot be a serious sentence

    Charles will serve as king with Duchess Camilla by his side,” a source exclusively says in the new issue of Us Weekly. “This is something he’s dreamed about his entire life — he sees it as his birthright

  • Scott_xP said:
    Well that means Big Dom isn't going anywhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    Scott_xP said:
    I confess I've not really been following this story because it seems inestimably boring even for me, but really, this, is what would cause a rift between Boris and Cummings? This?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    dr_spyn said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Throw into the mix, the big benevolent state buying up the stock then deciding who gets it versus allocation by price.
    Perhaps it could be done by vouchers.
    Or a post-code lottery.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    Again coming back to swedish eggehead said....start comparing in 2 years time, when we have been through multiple waves. There was all thr articles about aren't eastern Europe doing amazing, now poland running at 50% positivity rates, the Czechs had parties to celebrate eradicating it, Germany, there are 3x the number in ICU as in the UK and they have said track and trace can't really work.

    I agree with this entirely. The whole calling the winners when we are still at best half way through is just daft.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I confess I've not really been following this story because it seems inestimably boring even for me, but really, this, is what would cause a rift between Boris and Cummings? This?
    Peston is raising the question so it must be so.

    Oh...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Which is why the much maligned vaccine task force has prioritised building manufacturing capacity in the UK of 10m doses per month so we're not dependent on importing from nations that may put export bans in place.

    As I said earlier, this whole thread is just pointless. Vaccines are the one area where the government has been absolutely smashing it, the task force has come good and Cyclefree has built a house of cards against it.
    I think it's OK to malign the task force a bit for suggesting that it's prolly safer not to take vaccines in the first place because of the risk of freak side-effects. Otherwise I agree. We knew all along just how corrupt Johnson is, and if something comes good despite the corruption that is something to be thankful for.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I confess I've not really been following this story because it seems inestimably boring even for me, but really, this, is what would cause a rift between Boris and Cummings? This?
    Believe me, we just aren't that lucky.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Which is why the much maligned vaccine task force has prioritised building manufacturing capacity in the UK of 10m doses per month so we're not dependent on importing from nations that may put export bans in place.

    As I said earlier, this whole thread is just pointless. Vaccines are the one area where the government has been absolutely smashing it, the task force has come good and Cyclefree has built a house of cards against it.
    I agree, Cyclefree is often prolix but normally targets her anger pretty well. This thread just feels like criticism for the sake of it. So far the UK has done well on vaccines. Good.

    Also, kudos to you for predicting this. You said earlier in the year you expected the first vaccines to be injected before 2021. I said that was very unlikely. Your prediction is now looking much more credible.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited November 2020
    geoffw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Throw into the mix, the big benevolent state buying up the stock then deciding who gets it versus allocation by price.
    Perhaps it could be done by vouchers.
    Or a post-code lottery.
    Have you seen The Hunger Games?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    If that's what the country has come to, I say FIRE THE PRESIDENT!!
  • Some Americans are getting quite an education from their press...London firing fireworks in celebration of Biden, now that Prince Charles quite fancies the job of being King.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Scott_xP said:
    Boris himself will be gone by Spring next year. I've said it since the plague began
  • Ok, I've been so immersed in work and the US election that I know NOTHING about the Cain business. Before I go look into it, do I need to give a shit?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    -80C sounds really cold. But it's not really. That's dry ice plus some insulation. And the varicella containing vaccines (like MMRV) are usually kept at not much warmer temperatures.

    If there are multiple vaccines, with multiple different manufacturing methodologies, that makes life easier. But even if it was just Pfizer, then you would still see a remarkable increase in capability because they'd license the drug to a dozen other firms to do production for them.

    Let's not forget that the world produces billions of doses of various medicines every day. Things can be shuffled and improved.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Take your winnings from the US and pile on to big Dom staying in post lol
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:


    It matters not how he does it. If he wins the EC on Dec 14 Trump will remain in office, neither Secret service or Military will remove him, nor will Dems urge their supporters to take up arms, any sort of violence plays straight into Trumps hands. If Trump achieves Scenario 1 or 2, the battle ground will be courts and ballot boxes in the years to come.

    We have had 4 years of Trump, some more of it isn’t the end of the world when compared to actual violence. We agree so far?

    Completely disagree.

    If Biden is seen to have won, and the Electoral College decides otherwise then there will be civil war in the US.
    I don't know about civil war, but the people will be entitled to use the minimum action necessary to prevent the end of democracy. A general strike, a blockade of the White House, a refusal to pay taxes could be starters.

    I don't think it'll be necessary. Trump is setting himself up to be The Opposition. He'll be good at it, and he's entitled to try that and stand next time or have an anointed acolyte.. Override this election? Nah.
    Thank you, I think we agree, if Republicans gerrymander the college and SC back them it’s a crisis, but the army or secret service won’t then evict him, nor the democrats result to anything other than you described, mass rally’s, civil disobedience, the courts. I don’t know about blockades though, that, and any blockade busting violence plays into Trumps hands.

    The bit I disagree with though, you paint such a rosy future for Trump outside the whitehouse. Truth is, it’s stay in control or lose control and end up to his eyebrows in trouble isn’t it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Scott_xP said:
    Oh boy, what a great month November is shaping up to be:

    Trump defeated, vaccine announced, and now could Cummings be gone?

    Just needs Boris to announce a BINO EU deal next week and his resignation the week after. :smile:
  • gealbhan said:

    @RochdalePioneers
    FPT - Re Trump 'Plan'

    Tony Schwarz who ghost-wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump was interviewed by Evan Davis on R4 earlier this evening. He basically answered your question for you.

    There is no plan, just a horror of losing and determination to deny it as long as possible.

    Appreciated. Trump and his inner cabal are morons. However, as he IS the president and wants to stay President. And the entire GOP leadership aren't morons. So there will be a plan even if it isn't his.

    As others elude to above, the Electoral College has to be the target. Doesn't matter what people think they voted for, they're voting for Electors. Who don't even have to represent their views.
    If the GoP Leadership has a plan it is to let it all play out. Wait for the EC to do its job, and take it from there. Trump will decide himself when it is time to fold. They can't influence that and it would be pointless to try.

    I don't see the ECs playing fast and loose with the electorate. What's to gain? Everything to lose.
    “ I don't see the ECs playing fast and loose with the electorate.”

    What about the argument you make it sound so easy for Republican leadership (those not already in Trump pocket)? Really their difficult choice is gerrymander the college so he stays on, or throw him to the wolves. Like the moment in Death of Stalin, press the button under the table so he is escorted out by the army, they don’t actually have a middle option?

    Unlike Kes, Death of Stalin really was like a documentary.

    Playing the fool with ECVs would be the end of democracy in the USA, and likely bring about civil war. Not going to happen.
  • LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Boris himself will be gone by Spring next year. I've said it since the plague began
    I am interested in who is leaking all thess stories and why....the lockdown leak, carrie wears the trousers, bust up with boris and team leavers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    On a wider point, I'm quite happy to deport anyone who refuses the vaccine for non medical reasons.

    If you don't want the vaccine then get ready to live on Rockall or Pitcairn Island.

    South Georgia
    Can help with the recount!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:
    I don't understand the commitment to the slogan. Since it doesn't mean what it seems like it would mean, there has to be a pithy way of saying what it does mean, so why the stubborness of some to keep using it?
    Indeed. The one strength it has is that it's short and memorable. But given it is misleading and unpopular, even that isn't really a strength.
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Which is why the much maligned vaccine task force has prioritised building manufacturing capacity in the UK of 10m doses per month so we're not dependent on importing from nations that may put export bans in place.

    As I said earlier, this whole thread is just pointless. Vaccines are the one area where the government has been absolutely smashing it, the task force has come good and Cyclefree has built a house of cards against it.
    Ah the age old the ends justifies the means argument. Of course the government could have done the job properly and still got to the right answer. The point of the thread is that governments need to be transparent and spend our money wisely. Just giving contracts to mates is unacceptable even if, very occasionally, it gets to a good outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    glw said:

    Again coming back to swedish eggehead said....start comparing in 2 years time, when we have been through multiple waves. There was all thr articles about aren't eastern Europe doing amazing, now poland running at 50% positivity rates, the Czechs had parties to celebrate eradicating it, Germany, there are 3x the number in ICU as in the UK and they have said track and trace can't really work.

    I agree with this entirely. The whole calling the winners when we are still at best half way through is just daft.
    Trump would agree.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,389
    I wonder if the power struggle at No. 10 has a bit more significance than just tittle tattle. Cain, Cummings etc. are from the Leave campaign. Stratton isn't. Is it possible that what lies behind this is an imminent deal with the EU that is likely to upset the diehard Brexiteers, and the Vote Leave crew are concerned about their waning influence within Downing Street? So if Cain couldn't be Chief of Staff, he's taking his ball home.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh boy, what a great month November is shaping up to be:

    Trump defeated, vaccine announced, and now could Cummings be gone?

    Just needs Boris to announce a BINO EU deal next week and his resignation the week after. :smile:
    Perhaps Johnson himself really does feel liberated by Trump's departure. It really was all an act and he's always held him in total contempt. And freed of one albatross, he's suddenly thought "feck it, let's get rid of a load others whilst i'm at it!!"
  • Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Never saw that coming. Just blown away. All those PB posts with "Well actually they aren't actually Nazis" had led me to believe they were a diverse group of multi faceted faiths, colours and creeds
    Don't forget sexualities!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh boy, what a great month November is shaping up to be:

    Trump defeated, vaccine announced, and now could Cummings be gone?

    Just needs Boris to announce a BINO EU deal next week and his resignation the week after. :smile:
    The political capital spent on keeping him after eyetestgate will have been well spent in retrospect, if he goes anyway. What a shitshower.
  • @RochdalePioneers
    FPT - Re Trump 'Plan'

    Tony Schwarz who ghost-wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump was interviewed by Evan Davis on R4 earlier this evening. He basically answered your question for you.

    There is no plan, just a horror of losing and determination to deny it as long as possible.

    Appreciated. Trump and his inner cabal are morons. However, as he IS the president and wants to stay President. And the entire GOP leadership aren't morons. So there will be a plan even if it isn't his.

    As others elude to above, the Electoral College has to be the target. Doesn't matter what people think they voted for, they're voting for Electors. Who don't even have to represent their views.
    By what possible mechanism do Republicans "target" the Electoral College? Where Trump wins a state, the state GOP provides the slate of electors. Where Biden wins a state, the state Democratic Party provides the slate of electors. Several states (although not all) prevent completely or heavily sanction faithless electors. I'm sorry - people saying there's a trick involving the Electoral College simply don't understand how it works.

    There isn't a plan here, from Trump or anyone else. Trump has some doomed cases not involving sufficient numbers of voters to cast into doubt any, let alone several, of the states Biden won. He will try and fail to overturn or annul results, but it's all utterly hopeless. Then the Electoral College will announce Biden as President on 14 December, and he'll be inaugurated on 20 January. Trump will never accept it was fair, protecting his ego at the cost of badly damaging democracy in America. Senate Republicans know what the reality is but most of them can't say it as they don't want Trump to set his army of fanatical, drooling morons on them next time they face a primary election.

    For some reason, people (both for and strongly against Trump) seem to believe that people who can't book a room for a press conference at the Four Seasons hotel are currently working on the finer points of a plan so brilliant that it will blow our minds. They really, really aren't.
  • geoffw said:
    Well, if it's only King of England that would be fairly exclusive...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2020

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much.

    Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.

    The Swedes have been candid about their biggest mistake, not protecting care homes. That is what has caused a big bulk of the deaths.
    It's not clear that anybody has successfully protected care homes after they let a lot of infection spread, so this feels a bit like saying, "The manufacturer of the crashed aircraft has been candid about their biggest mistake, not giving their passengers wings".
  • When did his position become "finally untenable"?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    When did his position become "finally untenable"?
    Has it been discovered that, shock horror, he was the lockdown leaker?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:


    It matters not how he does it. If he wins the EC on Dec 14 Trump will remain in office, neither Secret service or Military will remove him, nor will Dems urge their supporters to take up arms, any sort of violence plays straight into Trumps hands. If Trump achieves Scenario 1 or 2, the battle ground will be courts and ballot boxes in the years to come.

    We have had 4 years of Trump, some more of it isn’t the end of the world when compared to actual violence. We agree so far?

    Completely disagree.

    If Biden is seen to have won, and the Electoral College decides otherwise then there will be civil war in the US.
    I don't know about civil war, but the people will be entitled to use the minimum action necessary to prevent the end of democracy. A general strike, a blockade of the White House, a refusal to pay taxes could be starters.

    I don't think it'll be necessary. Trump is setting himself up to be The Opposition. He'll be good at it, and he's entitled to try that and stand next time or have an anointed acolyte.. Override this election? Nah.
    Thank you, I think we agree, if Republicans gerrymander the college and SC back them it’s a crisis, but the army or secret service won’t then evict him, nor the democrats result to anything other than you described, mass rally’s, civil disobedience, the courts. I don’t know about blockades though, that, and any blockade busting violence plays into Trumps hands.

    The bit I disagree with though, you paint such a rosy future for Trump outside the whitehouse. Truth is, it’s stay in control or lose control and end up to his eyebrows in trouble isn’t it?
    Has the Supreme Court - at any point - done anything that would lead you to believe they'd back Trump on this?

  • For some reason, people (both for and strongly against Trump) seem to believe that people who can't book a room for a press conference at the Four Seasons hotel are currently working on the finer points of a plan so brilliant that it will blow our minds. They really, really aren't.

    I'm about 99% confident you're right. However the other 1% is very bad.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh boy, what a great month November is shaping up to be:

    Trump defeated, vaccine announced, and now could Cummings be gone?

    Just needs Boris to announce a BINO EU deal next week and his resignation the week after. :smile:
    The political capital spent on keeping him after eyetestgate will have been well spent in retrospect, if he goes anyway. What a shitshower.
    Why do I have a feeling that this time tomorrow Tory MPs will be tweeting their congrats to Dom Cummings, new Chief of Staff?
  • I think it might be a good idea to try and get a vaccine. Primarily to save lives protect health and as a secondary objective save the economy.

    But I understand that so many on here want the government to fail and instead want to continue on a diet of maximising furlough, UC and other handouts.

    Fortunately the government has more backbone and we'll get there!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    IshmaelZ said:

    geoffw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Throw into the mix, the big benevolent state buying up the stock then deciding who gets it versus allocation by price.
    Perhaps it could be done by vouchers.
    Or a post-code lottery.
    Have you seen The Hunger Games?
    No. Should I?

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited November 2020
    LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Boris himself will be gone by Spring next year. I've said it since the plague began
    I wonder.

    He's been well below par since he had Covid but at least to me he has appeared to be improving recently. It must also take a while to settle into the PM's job no matter who you are, but after being in ICU with a horrendous virus? Can't be easy. It would be easy to get trapped by advisors.

    Perhaps now he's recovering it has been possible to persuade him that these people aren't really doing him any good?

    I can't see him choosing to go soon, though, particularly now it looks like there will eventually be good news to announce (even if there were will be plenty more bad news before we get there). Good news he can do.


    Of course it is possible that he's lost all authority and is now just a shell...





  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Take your winnings from the US and pile on to big Dom staying in post lol

    All I'm saying is going against Dom is a quick way to the poor house.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:


    It matters not how he does it. If he wins the EC on Dec 14 Trump will remain in office, neither Secret service or Military will remove him, nor will Dems urge their supporters to take up arms, any sort of violence plays straight into Trumps hands. If Trump achieves Scenario 1 or 2, the battle ground will be courts and ballot boxes in the years to come.

    We have had 4 years of Trump, some more of it isn’t the end of the world when compared to actual violence. We agree so far?

    Completely disagree.

    If Biden is seen to have won, and the Electoral College decides otherwise then there will be civil war in the US.
    I don't know about civil war, but the people will be entitled to use the minimum action necessary to prevent the end of democracy. A general strike, a blockade of the White House, a refusal to pay taxes could be starters.

    I don't think it'll be necessary. Trump is setting himself up to be The Opposition. He'll be good at it, and he's entitled to try that and stand next time or have an anointed acolyte.. Override this election? Nah.
    Thank you, I think we agree, if Republicans gerrymander the college and SC back them it’s a crisis, but the army or secret service won’t then evict him, nor the democrats result to anything other than you described, mass rally’s, civil disobedience, the courts. I don’t know about blockades though, that, and any blockade busting violence plays into Trumps hands.

    The bit I disagree with though, you paint such a rosy future for Trump outside the whitehouse. Truth is, it’s stay in control or lose control and end up to his eyebrows in trouble isn’t it?
    Has the Supreme Court - at any point - done anything that would lead you to believe they'd back Trump on this?
    No. To be honest. But I would feel more comfortable if he hadn’t slanted it a little bit more last month.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    MaxPB said:

    The Vaccine Taskforce in the UK has been extremely successful in purchasing priority supply of a wide range of vaccines across different approaches. We do genuinely have a world beating portfolio of vaccines.

    The announcement of the Pfizer vaccine success is vindication of the government's approach and tbh, this whole thread is unnecessary whining when the vaccine taskforce has actually achieved its goal of building a wide variety of vaccines which will deliver by the end of this year and in H1.

    So yeah, sorry Cyclefree, I don't care about £670k spent on PR, I don't care that we don't know the members of the taskforce and I don't care that there might be some signs of cronyism. We've secured 40m jabs of a 94% effective vaccine and hopefully another 100m of the AZ one which is also looking good.

    The vaccine definitely needs PR.

    There will be some people terrified of it, and others who want to leverage their pet conspiracy theories.
    So Kate Bingham saying people shouldn’t take it because of potential side effects might not be ideal ?
  • @RochdalePioneers
    FPT - Re Trump 'Plan'

    Tony Schwarz who ghost-wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump was interviewed by Evan Davis on R4 earlier this evening. He basically answered your question for you.

    There is no plan, just a horror of losing and determination to deny it as long as possible.

    Appreciated. Trump and his inner cabal are morons. However, as he IS the president and wants to stay President. And the entire GOP leadership aren't morons. So there will be a plan even if it isn't his.

    As others elude to above, the Electoral College has to be the target. Doesn't matter what people think they voted for, they're voting for Electors. Who don't even have to represent their views.
    By what possible mechanism do Republicans "target" the Electoral College? Where Trump wins a state, the state GOP provides the slate of electors. Where Biden wins a state, the state Democratic Party provides the slate of electors. Several states (although not all) prevent completely or heavily sanction faithless electors. I'm sorry - people saying there's a trick involving the Electoral College simply don't understand how it works.

    There isn't a plan here, from Trump or anyone else. Trump has some doomed cases not involving sufficient numbers of voters to cast into doubt any, let alone several, of the states Biden won. He will try and fail to overturn or annul results, but it's all utterly hopeless. Then the Electoral College will announce Biden as President on 14 December, and he'll be inaugurated on 20 January. Trump will never accept it was fair, protecting his ego at the cost of badly damaging democracy in America. Senate Republicans know what the reality is but most of them can't say it as they don't want Trump to set his army of fanatical, drooling morons on them next time they face a primary election.

    For some reason, people (both for and strongly against Trump) seem to believe that people who can't book a room for a press conference at the Four Seasons hotel are currently working on the finer points of a plan so brilliant that it will blow our minds. They really, really aren't.
    I didn't say it was a *viable* plan. There can be no viable plan. But in the minds of the morons surrounding the Donald its a *brilliant* plan. Epic even. How they win back the TRUE victory or whatever.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    geoffw said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    geoffw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Throw into the mix, the big benevolent state buying up the stock then deciding who gets it versus allocation by price.
    Perhaps it could be done by vouchers.
    Or a post-code lottery.
    Have you seen The Hunger Games?
    No. Should I?

    Some of the last performances of Phillip Seymour Hoffman...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited November 2020

    I think it might be a good idea to try and get a vaccine. Primarily to save lives protect health and as a secondary objective save the economy.

    But I understand that so many on here want the government to fail and instead want to continue on a diet of maximising furlough, UC and other handouts.

    Fortunately the government has more backbone and we'll get there!

    If you think there is a single person on here that wants the country "to continue on a diet of maximising furlough, UC and other handouts", you are even more deluded than I thought.

    Personally, I think that pursuit of a vaccine is the one area where the government appears to have excelled, and deserves credit.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    geoffw said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    geoffw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much. Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.
    I think egg head will turn out to be wrong: simply the economic rationale for doing this really quickly is enormous.
    But there is only so much manufacturing capacity, plus with pfizer jab the super cold storage, the requirement for 2 jabs. I am absolutely ready to find i don't get mine until late summer / autumn next year.
    Unless there are multiple vaccines, like AZ, some of which don't need -80C storage

    I can foresee major clashes over manufacturing and export of these vaccines. Where will it happen? India?

    Will the Indians really make 500m shots of a vaccine and export 90% of them to the UK, EU and USA, even as Indians die of Covid?

    This applies to any country making the jabs. The political pressure to keep them at home, until the manufacturing nation is covered, will be brutal
    Throw into the mix, the big benevolent state buying up the stock then deciding who gets it versus allocation by price.
    Perhaps it could be done by vouchers.
    Or a post-code lottery.
    Have you seen The Hunger Games?
    No. Should I?

    It provides a mortal combat model for establishing entitlement to the vaccine.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:


    It matters not how he does it. If he wins the EC on Dec 14 Trump will remain in office, neither Secret service or Military will remove him, nor will Dems urge their supporters to take up arms, any sort of violence plays straight into Trumps hands. If Trump achieves Scenario 1 or 2, the battle ground will be courts and ballot boxes in the years to come.

    We have had 4 years of Trump, some more of it isn’t the end of the world when compared to actual violence. We agree so far?

    Completely disagree.

    If Biden is seen to have won, and the Electoral College decides otherwise then there will be civil war in the US.
    I don't know about civil war, but the people will be entitled to use the minimum action necessary to prevent the end of democracy. A general strike, a blockade of the White House, a refusal to pay taxes could be starters.

    I don't think it'll be necessary. Trump is setting himself up to be The Opposition. He'll be good at it, and he's entitled to try that and stand next time or have an anointed acolyte.. Override this election? Nah.
    Thank you, I think we agree, if Republicans gerrymander the college and SC back them it’s a crisis, but the army or secret service won’t then evict him, nor the democrats result to anything other than you described, mass rally’s, civil disobedience, the courts. I don’t know about blockades though, that, and any blockade busting violence plays into Trumps hands.

    The bit I disagree with though, you paint such a rosy future for Trump outside the whitehouse. Truth is, it’s stay in control or lose control and end up to his eyebrows in trouble isn’t it?
    Has the Supreme Court - at any point - done anything that would lead you to believe they'd back Trump on this?
    I do find it hard to accept that a SCOTUS with conservative justices that have just given the federal government a grilling over their arguments to kill Obamacare is just going to sign-off on a coup d'etat.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    LadyG said:

    glw said:

    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LadyG said:

    623 dead in Italy today; 33,000 new cases.

    Just a few weeks ago the Conte government was winning plaudits for its handling of the virus,

    The long lag between cause and effect means that the damage is usually done long before anyone realises it.
    I can remember when people were saying, on here, that Italy's avoidance of a bad second wave was because "they take it seriously," "they all wear masks", "the horror of the first wave sobered them up, unlike the Brits", and so on, and so forth.

    Turns out that was all bollocks. Their second wave is now worse than ours.
    There was an enormous amount of nonsense written by all sorts of people between July and September that has been proven to be utterly wrong.
    IF we get effective vaccines quickly all those praising Sweden (including myself) will possibly look quite foolish.

    The logic of the Swedish approach was that vaccines would take ages, and might never arrive. Hmm.
    Swedish egghead said 2 years was an optimistic time scale. It will at best end up being 18 months in the UK, where our government look like they have done extremely well on vaccine procurement. So not out by that much.

    Many countries it will be at least 2 year, maybe 3, maybe more if pfizer is the only working one.

    The Swedes have been candid about their biggest mistake, not protecting care homes. That is what has caused a big bulk of the deaths.
    And guess what Sweden did in the middle of September? They lifted restrictions on visiting care homes. Just as Coronavirus cases started rising again!
  • BREAKING: Senior civil servants checking they have champagne in the office fridge just in case their dream comes true later tonight
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:
    I don't understand the commitment to the slogan. Since it doesn't mean what it seems like it would mean, there has to be a pithy way of saying what it does mean, so why the stubborness of some to keep using it?
    Indeed. The one strength it has is that it's short and memorable. But given it is misleading and unpopular, even that isn't really a strength.
    I just use the same slogan for eveything and claim it means whatever I say, namely

    What Profiteth It A Kingdom If The Oxen Be Deflated? (tm Terry Pratchett)

    geoffw said:
    Well, if it's only King of England that would be fairly exclusive...
    Since she won't abdicate, yet the heir is getting anxious for their own authority (used to be a very common occurence leading to rebellion), perhaps you'd be content for him to be King in Scotland until such time as he gets the full gig?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:


    It matters not how he does it. If he wins the EC on Dec 14 Trump will remain in office, neither Secret service or Military will remove him, nor will Dems urge their supporters to take up arms, any sort of violence plays straight into Trumps hands. If Trump achieves Scenario 1 or 2, the battle ground will be courts and ballot boxes in the years to come.

    We have had 4 years of Trump, some more of it isn’t the end of the world when compared to actual violence. We agree so far?

    Completely disagree.

    If Biden is seen to have won, and the Electoral College decides otherwise then there will be civil war in the US.
    I don't know about civil war, but the people will be entitled to use the minimum action necessary to prevent the end of democracy. A general strike, a blockade of the White House, a refusal to pay taxes could be starters.

    I don't think it'll be necessary. Trump is setting himself up to be The Opposition. He'll be good at it, and he's entitled to try that and stand next time or have an anointed acolyte.. Override this election? Nah.
    Thank you, I think we agree, if Republicans gerrymander the college and SC back them it’s a crisis, but the army or secret service won’t then evict him, nor the democrats result to anything other than you described, mass rally’s, civil disobedience, the courts. I don’t know about blockades though, that, and any blockade busting violence plays into Trumps hands.

    The bit I disagree with though, you paint such a rosy future for Trump outside the whitehouse. Truth is, it’s stay in control or lose control and end up to his eyebrows in trouble isn’t it?
    Has the Supreme Court - at any point - done anything that would lead you to believe they'd back Trump on this?
    I do find it hard to accept that a SCOTUS with conservative justices that have just given the federal government a grilling over their arguments to kill Obamacare is just going to sign-off on a coup d'etat.
    The first day of the hearing was brutal for Texas and the government. It was a rapid fire massacre.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh boy, what a great month November is shaping up to be:

    Trump defeated, vaccine announced, and now could Cummings be gone?

    Just needs Boris to announce a BINO EU deal next week and his resignation the week after. :smile:
    The political capital spent on keeping him after eyetestgate will have been well spent in retrospect, if he goes anyway. What a shitshower.
    Why do I have a feeling that this time tomorrow Tory MPs will be tweeting their congrats to Dom Cummings, new Chief of Staff?
    Hasn't James Slack been appointed to chief of staff
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    Sounds great. When god closes a door, he also sets fire to the room.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh boy, what a great month November is shaping up to be:

    Trump defeated, vaccine announced, and now could Cummings be gone?

    Just needs Boris to announce a BINO EU deal next week and his resignation the week after. :smile:
    The political capital spent on keeping him after eyetestgate will have been well spent in retrospect, if he goes anyway. What a shitshower.
    Why do I have a feeling that this time tomorrow Tory MPs will be tweeting their congrats to Dom Cummings, new Chief of Staff?
    Hasn't James Slack been appointed to chief of staff
    No.
This discussion has been closed.