Vienna may no longer be a single rolling incident, it may now be considered more than one though these can be fog. Unfortunately something may be going on at a Hilton Hotel.
As a note, the assailants (one downed) look to have been well equipped. The visuals indicate long arms are being used which if you are a Vienna cops running around with shortened weapons is a bit of a problem. Despite the story that the Synagogue itself may not have been breached , other Jewish related sites may have been have been targeted.
Oh dear. It does look worse than a lone nutjob. I get especially worried when the authorities try to shut down social media sharing etc.
That can mean lots of things, but one possibility is it’s a big, organised Mumbai style assault.
Let’s hope not.
Sky reporting multiple incidents, this sounds very bleak.
Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.
also interesting that current early votes is nearly 110% of the 2016 total vote.
What do they predict as the turnout?
9.7M of the 16.9M registered voters (as opposed to 8.9M of 15.1M in 2016). current turnout based on early voters as opposed to total turnout in 2016 is 57.3% to 59.4%. 25% of votes cast in 2016 were on the day.
Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.
Is that the earlier incident you posted or another one?
Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.
Is that the earlier incident you posted or another one?
No it isn't. The tweet I posted, I didn't quite realise what had happened, I thought it was just an exchange of gunfire. These new clips appearing are far worse, absolutely explicit.
I wonder if all these European terror attacks are linked or inspired to influence the US vote? Though it seems too late for this to be an October Surprise.
Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.
That's my prediction.
I fervently hope that you are right. I’d love to see the Cheeto Benito take an absolute trouncing. I’m braced for something more like 2000, where it all ends up in the courts.
Well, two days after the panic press event with Johnson and the scientists on Saturday evening it seems increasingly clear the numbers they used cannot be backed up.
The PM has been panicked into locking down the UK with dubious figures yet again.
Caution though he cast doubt on the marquees as structures ordered they must be kept separate from other votes and advised against using them tomorrow.
According to twitter
From NPR
"Hansen said that if he found the plaintiffs did have standing, he would have still ruled against them, "as to the voting that has already taken place," but that he would "probably enjoin tomorrow's votes."
"He also ordered that records of the votes already cast in the drive through facilities be maintained, in case his decision is reversed on appeal."
My reading of what he said made it seem an eminently sensible judgement overall. He wanted to ensure no one votes twice. Fair enough.
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.
Having just watched the end of the BBC2 three parter on Trump. I believe people will look back on this time and wonder how it could have happened rather like they do with Hitler. It's actually shocking
I agree.
The final days and hours have had an almost Führerbunker air to them, right down to Trump retreating into the White House tomorrow evening.
I never thought I'd praise him for anything but I will say that he has campaigned hard.
I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.
That's my prediction.
I admit it's more likely to be a Cameron 2015 than a May 2017. I doubt it will be a Blair 97
Well I'm assuming you mean he's going to win bigly, though if he won by 1 EV id also be surprised!. To be honest I'd take a win, landslide would be better but I'm not feeling that, I think it will be closer than a lot think but happy to be totally wrong.
I wonder if all these European terror attacks are linked or inspired to influence the US vote? Though it seems too late for this to be an October Surprise.
If they wanted to influence the vote an attack in another country isn’t going to register with American voters . The USA is quite insular on that front .
From the EV Blog -"Examining each state in turn, and rolling up the state estimates to a national estimate, I arrive at a total turnout rate of 160.2 million votes".
So by the end of today we may be at just over 100m ie 62.5% of the likely final National outurn
37.5% tomorrow for Trump to make inroads but some of key states like FL maybe only 20% still to come NC similar
CONFIRMED at the moment: *08:00 pm: several shots fired, beginning at Seitenstettengasse *several suspects armed with rifles *six different shooting locations * one deceaced person, several injured (1 officer included) *1 suspect shot and killed by police officers #0211w
I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.
That's my prediction.
I admit it's more likely to be a Cameron 2015 than a May 2017. I doubt it will be a Blair 97
Well I'm assuming you mean he's going to win bigly, though if he won by 1 EV id also be surprised!. To be honest I'd take a win, landslide would be better but I'm not feeling that, I think it will be closer than a lot think but happy to be totally wrong.
by cameron 2015 I mean better than exepected. by May 2017 I mean (much) worse than expected by Blair 97 I mean significantly better than expected
We French share the shock and sorrow of the Austrian people struck this evening by an attack in the heart of their capital, Vienna. After France, it is a friendly country that is attacked. This is our Europe. Our enemies must know who they are dealing with. We will not give up.
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
He could only pardon himself - or get Pence to do it - for Federal Crimes. The State of New York, among others, is coming after him on a raft of stuff.
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).
It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.
That's my prediction.
I admit it's more likely to be a Cameron 2015 than a May 2017. I doubt it will be a Blair 97
Well I'm assuming you mean he's going to win bigly, though if he won by 1 EV id also be surprised!. To be honest I'd take a win, landslide would be better but I'm not feeling that, I think it will be closer than a lot think but happy to be totally wrong.
by cameron 2015 I mean better than exepected. by May 2017 I mean (much) worse than expected by Blair 97 I mean significantly better than expected</blockquotw
yes, sorry i linked my reply to your reply to Mysticrose intead of to his directly but either way I agree
Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016.
It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
Excellent post.
By the way, I saw your final forecast earlier - 269 apiece.
Actually, I don’t think that’s as unlikely are some are saying, although the two states that split their EC votes might be a spoiler!
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
Ford pardoned Nixon in a way that made *any* Federal prosecution impossible.
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
Yes.
" I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974."
Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016.
It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
Excellent post.
By the way, I saw your final forecast earlier - 269 apiece.
Actually, I don’t think that’s as unlikely are some are saying, although the two states that split their EC votes might be a spoiler!
Thanks, apologies my second sentence should have read 'it is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the popular vote as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016.'
Yes to produce the tie I had Biden picking up Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona and Trump holding his other 2016 states, though as you state if Biden won NE02 or Maine02 too he would still scrape a win
In 2018 there was a load of ballots that didn't get delivered from Miami Dade to the FLorida election. So a poor postal service is baked in if you're comparing to 2018 in Fl. This time round people do actually seem to be actively hunting down ballots in the mail (Fuck knows why you'd use the mail at this point) but that's another story.
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
He could only pardon himself - or get Pence to do it - for Federal Crimes. The State of New York, among others, is coming after him on a raft of stuff.
Now, he has called Nevada for Biden at 49-45 with 6% DK / Others. Not sure I agree with him on the 6% DKs but, if he is right, that's a swing of <1% to Biden from 2016.
So, first of all, at least there (and we can argue if NV is typical), it's not much of a swing.
The more interesting part may be in what the Rurals are doing.
When Ralston started his blog, his view was that the Democrats would want to have a firewall in the high-80000s in Clark to feel confident about victory. His rationale now was that lead would mean something like a 54K statewide going into Election Day.
The Dems have that 89K firewall from Clark but it has only translated into a 47K state firewall. Why? Because the rural areas have come out a lot more strongly for Trump than anticipated. Trump's advantage in 2016 in rural areas was 58K. Ralston thinks it could get to 80K and possibly more.
Is it enough to win NV? Probably not (but depends on independents) but what it might suggest is that poorer whites are coming out in greater numbers than anticipated. And there is nothing particularly special about NV that suggests its more rural elements are unique. That might be relevant for other states.
The other question is whether this is being picked up in the polls. If the polling is based off 2016 turnout, the answer is probably not which raises the question (again) of whether white non-college voters are being undercounted. Which would throw the polling into doubt.
Now, he has called Nevada for Biden at 49-45 with 6% DK / Others. Not sure I agree with him on the 6% DKs but, if he is right, that's a swing of <1% to Biden from 2016.
So, first of all, at least there (and we can argue if NV is typical), it's not much of a swing.
The more interesting part may be in what the Rurals are doing.
When Ralston started his blog, his view was that the Democrats would want to have a firewall in the high-80000s in Clark to feel confident about victory. His rationale now was that lead would mean something like a 54K statewide going into Election Day.
The Dems have that 89K firewall from Clark but it has only translated into a 47K state firewall. Why? Because the rural areas have come out a lot more strongly for Trump than anticipated. Trump's advantage in 2016 in rural areas was 58K. Ralston thinks it could get to 80K and possibly more.
Is it enough to win NV? Probably not (but depends on independents) but what it might suggest is that poorer whites are coming out in greater numbers than anticipated. And there is nothing particularly special about NV that suggests its more rural elements are unique. That might be relevant for other states.
The other question is whether this is being picked up in the polls. If the polling is based off 2016 turnout, the answer is probably not which raises the question (again) of whether white non-college voters are being undercounted. Which would throw the polling into doubt.</p>
Thoroughly depressing news. Here's my early call. 2020 was bad. 2021 will be worse.
I think you are right - I wish with all my heart I thought otherwise
Depends a lot what kind of worse; after all, 1947 was objectively worse to live through than 1945, but that was in part because it was an inevitable bit of dung to wade through to reach better times.
If we're lucky, 2020 was the last, frankly rubbish bit of a party. It stopped being fun long ago, but the logic of the situation had an unstoppable force. We're drinking that odd, frankly unpleasant spirit we brought back from somewhere sunny years ago because it's all that's left.
In that case 2021, might be when we begin to clear up the mess. With a raging hangover. Happy new year!
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
Here's the Ford pardon of Nixon:
By the President of the United States of America a Proclamation
Richard Nixon became the thirty-seventh President of the United States on January 20, 1969 and was reelected in 1972 for a second term by the electors of forty-nine of the fifty states. His term in office continued until his resignation on August 9, 1974.
Pursuant to resolutions of the House of Representatives, its Committee on the Judiciary conducted an inquiry and investigation on the impeachment of the President extending over more than eight months. The hearings of the Committee and its deliberations, which received wide national publicity over television, radio, and in printed media, resulted in votes adverse to Richard Nixon on recommended Articles of Impeachment.
As a result of certain acts or omissions occurring before his resignation from the Office of President, Richard Nixon has become liable to possible indictment and trial for offenses against the United States. Whether or not he shall be so prosecuted depends on findings of the appropriate grand jury and on the discretion of the authorized prosecutor. Should an indictment ensue, the accused shall then be entitled to a fair trial by an impartial jury, as guaranteed to every individual by the Constitution.
It is believed that a trial of Richard Nixon, if it became necessary, could not fairly begin until a year or more has elapsed. In the meantime, the tranquility to which this nation has been restored by the events of recent weeks could be irreparably lost by the prospects of bringing to trial a former President of the United States. The prospects of such trial will cause prolonged and divisive debate over the propriety of exposing to further punishment and degradation a man who has already paid the unprecedented penalty of relinquishing the highest elective office of the United States.
Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this eighth day of September, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth.
Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).
It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
The thing is that the Democrats lead in the popular vote is somewhat artificially inflated because Republicans living in California or New York or Illinois know there is not a cat in hell's chance that a Republican will win in these states at the Presidential level which means the election apparatus atrophies and people don't come out to vote.
They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
And yet deaths from terrorism in Europe are still at a fraction of the level of the 1970s.
The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
Crony virus. Latest pandemic. Not as if quango appointments haven't been at any time before 2020, though Binghan's briefing does verge on the reckless given her position.
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
Here's the Ford pardon of Nixon:
By the President of the United States of America a Proclamation
Richard Nixon became the thirty-seventh President of the United States on January 20, 1969 and was reelected in 1972 for a second term by the electors of forty-nine of the fifty states. His term in office continued until his resignation on August 9, 1974.
Pursuant to resolutions of the House of Representatives, its Committee on the Judiciary conducted an inquiry and investigation on the impeachment of the President extending over more than eight months. The hearings of the Committee and its deliberations, which received wide national publicity over television, radio, and in printed media, resulted in votes adverse to Richard Nixon on recommended Articles of Impeachment.
As a result of certain acts or omissions occurring before his resignation from the Office of President, Richard Nixon has become liable to possible indictment and trial for offenses against the United States. Whether or not he shall be so prosecuted depends on findings of the appropriate grand jury and on the discretion of the authorized prosecutor. Should an indictment ensue, the accused shall then be entitled to a fair trial by an impartial jury, as guaranteed to every individual by the Constitution.
It is believed that a trial of Richard Nixon, if it became necessary, could not fairly begin until a year or more has elapsed. In the meantime, the tranquility to which this nation has been restored by the events of recent weeks could be irreparably lost by the prospects of bringing to trial a former President of the United States. The prospects of such trial will cause prolonged and divisive debate over the propriety of exposing to further punishment and degradation a man who has already paid the unprecedented penalty of relinquishing the highest elective office of the United States.
Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this eighth day of September, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth.
GERALD R. FORD
"As a result of certain acts or omissions", I love it.
Even so, great argument that 'tranquility' is lost by putting the man on trial, and actually punishing him for crimes would be 'degredation'. Might as well just accept the premise Presidents cannot commit crimes, if it is to be argued punishing them shouldn't happen even if they do commit crimes.
They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
And yet deaths from terrorism in Europe are still at a fraction of the level of the 1970s.
The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
The existential threat is to our freedom, not our countries. Freedom of speech. Freedom to joke about religion. Freedom to blaspheme. Freedom to criticize faith. Freedom to enjoy the hard won victories of the Enlightenment
A few nutters with AKs can kill a few dozen people. At best a few trained pilots in planes can bring down a few towers.
That will not destroy the west. No, they destroy the west by destroying western liberty. And that is very do-able
Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).
It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
The thing is that the Democrats lead in the popular vote is somewhat artificially inflated because Republicans living in California or New York or Illinois know there is not a cat in hell's chance that a Republican will win in these states at the Presidential level which means the election apparatus atrophies and people don't come out to vote.
The same argument could be applied to Democrats in Alabama and the like.
Plus, there have historically been a lot of competitive down ticket races, and California has some pretty important ballot initiatives.
(I would point out that President Trump's completely petty blocking of the California's desire to abolish Summer Time - Prop 7 in 2018 - has gone down like a bag of sick here. It'd be like the UK having a referendum on getting rid of summer time, and Brussels saying "Non" because it's California.)
Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).
It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
The thing is that the Democrats lead in the popular vote is somewhat artificially inflated because Republicans living in California or New York or Illinois know there is not a cat in hell's chance that a Republican will win in these states at the Presidential level which means the election apparatus atrophies and people don't come out to vote.
You could equally argue that Dems in those States have no massive incentive to vote since they know the State will be blue anyway.
They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
And yet deaths from terrorism in Europe are still at a fraction of the level of the 1970s.
The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
The existential threat is to our freedom, not our countries. Freedom of speech. Freedom to joke about religion. Freedom to blaspheme. Freedom to criticize faith. Freedom to enjoy the hard won victories of the Enlightenment
A few nutters with AKs can kill a few dozen people. At best a few trained pilots in planes can bring down a few towers.
That will not destroy the west. No, they destroy the west by destroying western liberty. And that is very do-able
Yet we have in fact seen blasphemy laws abolished or weakened in Ireland, the UK and Spain in the last decade.
So they seem to be achieving the exact opposite of their aims.
They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
And yet deaths from terrorism in Europe are still at a fraction of the level of the 1970s.
The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
It's not existential, sure, but it can have a bigger impact than you imply nevertheless, as if nuber of deaths is the only potential impact.
They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
And yet deaths from terrorism in Europe are still at a fraction of the level of the 1970s.
The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
No
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Thanks for confirming that.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
At this stage it’s an if. But -
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
Here's the Ford pardon of Nixon:
By the President of the United States of America a Proclamation
Richard Nixon became the thirty-seventh President of the United States on January 20, 1969 and was reelected in 1972 for a second term by the electors of forty-nine of the fifty states. His term in office continued until his resignation on August 9, 1974.
Pursuant to resolutions of the House of Representatives, its Committee on the Judiciary conducted an inquiry and investigation on the impeachment of the President extending over more than eight months. The hearings of the Committee and its deliberations, which received wide national publicity over television, radio, and in printed media, resulted in votes adverse to Richard Nixon on recommended Articles of Impeachment.
As a result of certain acts or omissions occurring before his resignation from the Office of President, Richard Nixon has become liable to possible indictment and trial for offenses against the United States. Whether or not he shall be so prosecuted depends on findings of the appropriate grand jury and on the discretion of the authorized prosecutor. Should an indictment ensue, the accused shall then be entitled to a fair trial by an impartial jury, as guaranteed to every individual by the Constitution.
It is believed that a trial of Richard Nixon, if it became necessary, could not fairly begin until a year or more has elapsed. In the meantime, the tranquility to which this nation has been restored by the events of recent weeks could be irreparably lost by the prospects of bringing to trial a former President of the United States. The prospects of such trial will cause prolonged and divisive debate over the propriety of exposing to further punishment and degradation a man who has already paid the unprecedented penalty of relinquishing the highest elective office of the United States.
Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this eighth day of September, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth.
GERALD R. FORD
I've never heard of the year being referred to before like that "the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth."
Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).
It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
The thing is that the Democrats lead in the popular vote is somewhat artificially inflated because Republicans living in California or New York or Illinois know there is not a cat in hell's chance that a Republican will win in these states at the Presidential level which means the election apparatus atrophies and people don't come out to vote.
Er, the same applied in reverse in TX until Democrats came out and voted and made the state competitive.
It also applies in a lot of fairly populous states where the GOP are a shoo-in, eg IN and MO.
Not that I’m defending the Electoral College. It’s great fun for maths geeks and stats nerds and betting fans, but as a way of electing a president over a single territory it’s utterly barmy.
Comments
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-early-voting-numbers/
Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.
The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
That's my prediction.
8,974,896 early votes of 14,065,627 RV or 63.81% of RV
In 2016, 89.32% of RV voted. If that level is reached again, 3,588,093 not yet voted who will
Breakdown of votes cast by Party, assuming No Party Affiliation go 55/45 to Biden
Dem: 3,512,211+1,063,506=4,575,717
GOP: 3,404,088+ 870,142 = 4,274,230
Dem lead in early voting = 301,488
For Trump to win, he needs to split those 3,588,093 on Election Day 54/46 or better. Squeaking bum time.
He's lost the Telegraph!
The PM has been panicked into locking down the UK with dubious figures yet again.
First the Standard Model, All values as vote percentage
And now the Deluxe Model
Between these two models I am fairly confident of having a 100% success rate.
The final days and hours have had an almost Führerbunker air to them, right down to Trump retreating into the White House tomorrow evening.
I never thought I'd praise him for anything but I will say that he has campaigned hard.
It's truly spooky.
So by the end of today we may be at just over 100m ie 62.5% of the likely final National outurn
37.5% tomorrow for Trump to make inroads but some of key states like FL maybe only 20% still to come NC similar
Apparently there is another video of three people getting executed, but I won't watch that one.
Dreadful.
@LPDWien
CONFIRMED at the moment:
*08:00 pm: several shots fired, beginning at Seitenstettengasse
*several suspects armed with rifles
*six different shooting locations
* one deceaced person, several injured (1 officer included)
*1 suspect shot and killed by police officers #0211w
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872
But no presidential candidate has had such a poll lead going into an election since Obama in 2008, who went on to win 365 Electoral College votes.
I think Biden will be 330 up.
by May 2017 I mean (much) worse than expected
by Blair 97 I mean significantly better than expected
Total votes Florida 2016
Trump 4.6m Clinton 4.5m = 9.1m
So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%
Would mean 10.8m in FL
Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.
So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD
Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that
A big if BUT......
DYOR
We French share the shock and sorrow of the Austrian people struck this evening by an attack in the heart of their capital, Vienna. After France, it is a friendly country that is attacked. This is our Europe. Our enemies must know who they are dealing with. We will not give up.
His retirement plan was surely to write for / edit the Telegraph, and they don't like him any more.
Of course, if he can't afford to retire, that's a problem for the rest of us.
https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html
It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
Here's my early call.
2020 was bad. 2021 will be worse.
Biden is 108k ahead with a further 150k advantage if all early votes counted.
Can Trump pull that back tomorrow.
Doubtful IMO
By the way, I saw your final forecast earlier - 269 apiece.
Actually, I don’t think that’s as unlikely are some are saying, although the two states that split their EC votes might be a spoiler!
" I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974."
On the front page of the Indy. It has certainly gone downhill.
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19
Yes to produce the tie I had Biden picking up Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona and Trump holding his other 2016 states, though as you state if Biden won NE02 or Maine02 too he would still scrape a win
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
Now, he has called Nevada for Biden at 49-45 with 6% DK / Others. Not sure I agree with him on the 6% DKs but, if he is right, that's a swing of <1% to Biden from 2016.
So, first of all, at least there (and we can argue if NV is typical), it's not much of a swing.
The more interesting part may be in what the Rurals are doing.
When Ralston started his blog, his view was that the Democrats would want to have a firewall in the high-80000s in Clark to feel confident about victory. His rationale now was that lead would mean something like a 54K statewide going into Election Day.
The Dems have that 89K firewall from Clark but it has only translated into a 47K state firewall. Why? Because the rural areas have come out a lot more strongly for Trump than anticipated. Trump's advantage in 2016 in rural areas was 58K. Ralston thinks it could get to 80K and possibly more.
Is it enough to win NV? Probably not (but depends on independents) but what it might suggest is that poorer whites are coming out in greater numbers than anticipated. And there is nothing particularly special about NV that suggests its more rural elements are unique. That might be relevant for other states.
The other question is whether this is being picked up in the polls. If the polling is based off 2016 turnout, the answer is probably not which raises the question (again) of whether white non-college voters are being undercounted. Which would throw the polling into doubt.
The other guy was saying he hates jews because they run the world
He sent him a link to the story of unfolding events tonight - no response
Democrats 1,701,366 37.4
Republicans 1,443,822 31.7
Ballots not yet returned
Dem 244K
GOP 98K
Turnout compared to 2016 - 95.4% 4.55m
Likely 2020 Turnout 5.65m (scaling up on basis that national vote up from 135m to 160m)
So Biden currently 258k in lead potential EV to come a further 146k ie 400k lead with OTD to come
If we're lucky, 2020 was the last, frankly rubbish bit of a party. It stopped being fun long ago, but the logic of the situation had an unstoppable force. We're drinking that odd, frankly unpleasant spirit we brought back from somewhere sunny years ago because it's all that's left.
In that case 2021, might be when we begin to clear up the mess. With a raging hangover. Happy new year!
By the President of the United States of America a Proclamation
Richard Nixon became the thirty-seventh President of the United States on January 20, 1969 and was reelected in 1972 for a second term by the electors of forty-nine of the fifty states. His term in office continued until his resignation on August 9, 1974.
Pursuant to resolutions of the House of Representatives, its Committee on the Judiciary conducted an inquiry and investigation on the impeachment of the President extending over more than eight months. The hearings of the Committee and its deliberations, which received wide national publicity over television, radio, and in printed media, resulted in votes adverse to Richard Nixon on recommended Articles of Impeachment.
As a result of certain acts or omissions occurring before his resignation from the Office of President, Richard Nixon has become liable to possible indictment and trial for offenses against the United States. Whether or not he shall be so prosecuted depends on findings of the appropriate grand jury and on the discretion of the authorized prosecutor. Should an indictment ensue, the accused shall then be entitled to a fair trial by an impartial jury, as guaranteed to every individual by the Constitution.
It is believed that a trial of Richard Nixon, if it became necessary, could not fairly begin until a year or more has elapsed. In the meantime, the tranquility to which this nation has been restored by the events of recent weeks could be irreparably lost by the prospects of bringing to trial a former President of the United States. The prospects of such trial will cause prolonged and divisive debate over the propriety of exposing to further punishment and degradation a man who has already paid the unprecedented penalty of relinquishing the highest elective office of the United States.
Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this eighth day of September, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth.
GERALD R. FORD
The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
https://twitter.com/piercepenniless/status/1323168171025747969?s=19
https://twitter.com/hendopolis
/status/1323382151509905410/photo/1
Even so, great argument that 'tranquility' is lost by putting the man on trial, and actually punishing him for crimes would be 'degredation'. Might as well just accept the premise Presidents cannot commit crimes, if it is to be argued punishing them shouldn't happen even if they do commit crimes.
A few nutters with AKs can kill a few dozen people. At best a few trained pilots in planes can bring down a few towers.
That will not destroy the west. No, they destroy the west by destroying western liberty. And that is very do-able
I think something put talking horses into my head. Possibly Mr Ed?
Plus, there have historically been a lot of competitive down ticket races, and California has some pretty important ballot initiatives.
(I would point out that President Trump's completely petty blocking of the California's desire to abolish Summer Time - Prop 7 in 2018 - has gone down like a bag of sick here. It'd be like the UK having a referendum on getting rid of summer time, and Brussels saying "Non" because it's California.)
So they seem to be achieving the exact opposite of their aims.
Is that a common thing for them to do?
We have low customer acquisition costs, and low loss ratios.
A combination that makes us very happy indeed.
It also applies in a lot of fairly populous states where the GOP are a shoo-in, eg IN and MO.
Not that I’m defending the Electoral College. It’s great fun for maths geeks and stats nerds and betting fans, but as a way of electing a president over a single territory it’s utterly barmy.