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On the eve of the election UK punters still give Trump a 33% chance – politicalbetting.com

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  • ping said:

    Yokes said:

    Vienna may no longer be a single rolling incident, it may now be considered more than one though these can be fog. Unfortunately something may be going on at a Hilton Hotel.

    As a note, the assailants (one downed) look to have been well equipped. The visuals indicate long arms are being used which if you are a Vienna cops running around with shortened weapons is a bit of a problem. Despite the story that the Synagogue itself may not have been breached , other Jewish related sites may have been have been targeted.

    Oh dear. It does look worse than a lone nutjob. I get especially worried when the authorities try to shut down social media sharing etc.

    That can mean lots of things, but one possibility is it’s a big, organised Mumbai style assault.

    Let’s hope not.
    Sky reporting multiple incidents, this sounds very bleak.
  • Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.

    Will this benighted year never end?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    spudgfsh said:

    Interesting view of how Biden's chances in Texas may be sensitive to turnout:

    https://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/1323306218283245568?s=20

    also interesting that current early votes is nearly 110% of the 2016 total vote.
    What do they predict as the turnout?
    9.7M of the 16.9M registered voters (as opposed to 8.9M of 15.1M in 2016). current turnout based on early voters as opposed to total turnout in 2016 is 57.3% to 59.4%. 25% of votes cast in 2016 were on the day.

    https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-early-voting-numbers/
  • Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.

    Is that the earlier incident you posted or another one?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited November 2020

    Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.

    Is that the earlier incident you posted or another one?
    No it isn't. The tweet I posted, I didn't quite realise what had happened, I thought it was just an exchange of gunfire. These new clips appearing are far worse, absolutely explicit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    edited November 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    I didn't realise HYUFD was that well off.
    Farage's old sidekick? Can't remember his name. The one with the insurance company.
  • I wonder if all these European terror attacks are linked or inspired to influence the US vote? Though it seems too late for this to be an October Surprise.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.

    Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.

    The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    nico679 said:

    Two new polls by Reuters/Ipsos and Quinnipiac have Biden up 4 in Florida .

    I think FL is still very close.

    8,974,896 early votes of 14,065,627 RV or 63.81% of RV

    In 2016, 89.32% of RV voted. If that level is reached again, 3,588,093 not yet voted who will

    Breakdown of votes cast by Party, assuming No Party Affiliation go 55/45 to Biden

    Dem: 3,512,211+1,063,506=4,575,717
    GOP: 3,404,088+ 870,142 = 4,274,230
    Dem lead in early voting = 301,488

    For Trump to win, he needs to split those 3,588,093 on Election Day 54/46 or better. Squeaking bum time.
  • I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.

    That's my prediction.

    We will see!
  • I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.

    That's my prediction.

    I fervently hope that you are right. I’d love to see the Cheeto Benito take an absolute trouncing. I’m braced for something more like 2000, where it all ends up in the courts.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Scott_xP said:
    I didn't realise HYUFD was that well off.
    Farage's old sidekick? Can't remember his name. The one with the insurance company.
    Churchill?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.

    That's my prediction.

    I admit it's more likely to be a Cameron 2015 than a May 2017. I doubt it will be a Blair 97
  • Well, two days after the panic press event with Johnson and the scientists on Saturday evening it seems increasingly clear the numbers they used cannot be backed up.

    The PM has been panicked into locking down the UK with dubious figures yet again.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    TimT said:

    Caution though he cast doubt on the marquees as structures ordered they must be kept separate from other votes and advised against using them tomorrow.

    According to twitter
    From NPR

    "Hansen said that if he found the plaintiffs did have standing, he would have still ruled against them, "as to the voting that has already taken place," but that he would "probably enjoin tomorrow's votes."

    "He also ordered that records of the votes already cast in the drive through facilities be maintained, in case his decision is reversed on appeal."
    My reading of what he said made it seem an eminently sensible judgement overall. He wanted to ensure no one votes twice. Fair enough.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
  • He lost the Telegraph (on covid) weeks ago. Every day one of their commentators lays into him over the shambles and bad science.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.

    Will this benighted year never end?
    In 59 days. Just keep scoring them off.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
    Sorry for the delay here are my calls.

    First the Standard Model, All values as vote percentage

    State Biden Trump
    Ala. 100 0
    Alaska 100 0
    Ariz. 0 100
    Ark. 0 100
    Calif. 100 0
    Colo. 100 0
    Conn. 0 100
    D.C. 100 0
    Del. 100 0
    Fla. 100 0
    Ga. 100 0
    Hawaii 0 100
    Idaho 100 0
    Ill. 100 0
    Ind. 100 0
    Iowa 100 0
    Kan. 100 0
    Ky. 100 0
    La. 0 100
    Maine † 100 0
    Mass. 100 0
    Md. 100 0
    ME-1 100 0
    ME-2 100 0
    Mich. 100 0
    Minn. 100 0
    Miss. 0 100
    Mo. 100 0
    Mont. 100 0
    N.C. 100 0
    N.D. 100 0
    N.H. 100 0
    N.J. 100 0
    N.M. 100 0
    N.Y. 100 0
    NE-1 100 0
    NE-2 100 0
    NE-3 100 0
    Nebr. † 100 0
    Nev. 100 0
    Ohio 0 100
    Okla. 100 0
    Ore. 100 0
    Pa. 100 0
    R.I. 100 0
    S.C. 100 0
    S.D. 0 100
    Tenn. 100 0
    Texas 100 0
    Utah 100 0
    Va. 0 100
    Vt. 100 0
    W.Va. 100 0
    Wash. 100 0
    Wis. 100 0
    Wyo. 0 100

    And now the Deluxe Model

    State Biden Trump
    Ala. 0 100
    Alaska 0 100
    Ariz. 0 100
    Ark. 0 100
    Calif. 100 0
    Colo. 0 100
    Conn. 100 0
    D.C. 100 0
    Del. 100 0
    Fla. 0 100
    Ga. 0 100
    Hawaii 100 0
    Idaho 0 100
    Ill. 100 0
    Ind. 0 100
    Iowa 0 100
    Kan. 0 100
    Ky. 0 100
    La. 0 100
    Maine † 0 100
    Mass. 100 0
    Md. 100 0
    ME-1 100 0
    ME-2 0 100
    Mich. 0 100
    Minn. 0 100
    Miss. 0 100
    Mo. 0 100
    Mont. 0 100
    N.C. 0 100
    N.D. 0 100
    N.H. 0 100
    N.J. 100 0
    N.M. 100 0
    N.Y. 100 0
    NE-1 0 100
    NE-2 0 100
    NE-3 0 100
    Nebr. † 0 100
    Nev. 0 100
    Ohio 0 100
    Okla. 0 100
    Ore. 100 0
    Pa. 0 100
    R.I. 100 0
    S.C. 0 100
    S.D. 0 100
    Tenn. 0 100
    Texas 0 100
    Utah 0 100
    Va. 0 100
    Vt. 100 0
    W.Va. 0 100
    Wash. 100 0
    Wis. 0 100
    Wyo. 0 100

    Between these two models I am fairly confident of having a 100% success rate.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Roger said:

    Having just watched the end of the BBC2 three parter on Trump. I believe people will look back on this time and wonder how it could have happened rather like they do with Hitler. It's actually shocking

    I agree.

    The final days and hours have had an almost Führerbunker air to them, right down to Trump retreating into the White House tomorrow evening.

    I never thought I'd praise him for anything but I will say that he has campaigned hard.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    spudgfsh said:

    I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.

    That's my prediction.

    I admit it's more likely to be a Cameron 2015 than a May 2017. I doubt it will be a Blair 97
    Well I'm assuming you mean he's going to win bigly, though if he won by 1 EV id also be surprised!. To be honest I'd take a win, landslide would be better but I'm not feeling that, I think it will be closer than a lot think but happy to be totally wrong.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    I wonder if all these European terror attacks are linked or inspired to influence the US vote? Though it seems too late for this to be an October Surprise.

    If they wanted to influence the vote an attack in another country isn’t going to register with American voters . The USA is quite insular on that front .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Astonshing. He seems to be saying that some areas consistently tend to vote Democrat, but didn't always do that.

    It's truly spooky.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    From the EV Blog -"Examining each state in turn, and rolling up the state estimates to a national estimate, I arrive at a total turnout rate of 160.2 million votes".

    So by the end of today we may be at just over 100m ie 62.5% of the likely final National outurn

    37.5% tomorrow for Trump to make inroads but some of key states like FL maybe only 20% still to come NC similar
  • Saw a video of a poor young man getting shot in a doorway in Austria.

    Apparently there is another video of three people getting executed, but I won't watch that one.

    Dreadful.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    POLIZEI WIEN
    @LPDWien

    CONFIRMED at the moment:
    *08:00 pm: several shots fired, beginning at Seitenstettengasse
    *several suspects armed with rifles
    *six different shooting locations
    * one deceaced person, several injured (1 officer included)
    *1 suspect shot and killed by police officers #0211w
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    spudgfsh said:

    I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.

    That's my prediction.

    I admit it's more likely to be a Cameron 2015 than a May 2017. I doubt it will be a Blair 97
    Perhaps not ;)

    But no presidential candidate has had such a poll lead going into an election since Obama in 2008, who went on to win 365 Electoral College votes.

    I think Biden will be 330 up.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    Mal557 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.

    That's my prediction.

    I admit it's more likely to be a Cameron 2015 than a May 2017. I doubt it will be a Blair 97
    Well I'm assuming you mean he's going to win bigly, though if he won by 1 EV id also be surprised!. To be honest I'd take a win, landslide would be better but I'm not feeling that, I think it will be closer than a lot think but happy to be totally wrong.
    by cameron 2015 I mean better than exepected.
    by May 2017 I mean (much) worse than expected
    by Blair 97 I mean significantly better than expected
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    I posted this 9 hrs ago about Florida since the post the position is ever so slightly better for Biden


    Total votes Florida 2016

    Trump 4.6m Clinton 4.5m = 9.1m

    So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%

    Would mean 10.8m in FL

    Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.

    So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD

    Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that

    A big if BUT......

    DYOR
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2020
    p

    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    /translate

    We French share the shock and sorrow of the Austrian people struck this evening by an attack in the heart of their capital, Vienna. After France, it is a friendly country that is attacked. This is our Europe. Our enemies must know who they are dealing with. We will not give up.
  • "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    Them fighting words them is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Gaussian said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
    He could only pardon himself - or get Pence to do it - for Federal Crimes. The State of New York, among others, is coming after him on a raft of stuff.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    Them fighting words them is.
    I hope so - but likely more empty hot air
  • He lost the Telegraph (on covid) weeks ago. Every day one of their commentators lays into him over the shambles and bad science.

    That's a problem for Bozza.

    His retirement plan was surely to write for / edit the Telegraph, and they don't like him any more.

    Of course, if he can't afford to retire, that's a problem for the rest of us.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Gaussian said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
    Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Floater said:

    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    Them fighting words them is.
    I hope so - but likely more empty hot air
    His secularism speech a month ago was very good, I thought.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    edited November 2020
    OllyT said:

    Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.

    Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.

    The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.

    There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

    It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    spudgfsh said:

    Mal557 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    I think the scale of Biden's victory tomorrow night is going to catch a lot of people here by surprise.

    That's my prediction.

    I admit it's more likely to be a Cameron 2015 than a May 2017. I doubt it will be a Blair 97
    Well I'm assuming you mean he's going to win bigly, though if he won by 1 EV id also be surprised!. To be honest I'd take a win, landslide would be better but I'm not feeling that, I think it will be closer than a lot think but happy to be totally wrong.
    by cameron 2015 I mean better than exepected.
    by May 2017 I mean (much) worse than expected
    by Blair 97 I mean significantly better than expected</blockquotw

    yes, sorry i linked my reply to your reply to Mysticrose intead of to his directly but either way I agree
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Thoroughly depressing news.
    Here's my early call.
    2020 was bad. 2021 will be worse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited November 2020
    ping said:

    Floater said:

    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    Them fighting words them is.
    I hope so - but likely more empty hot air
    His secularism speech a month ago was very good, I thought.
    He has been very firm and unequivocal on statue topplers and general attempts to trash French history and how important secularism is.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    I posted this 9 hrs ago about Florida since the post the position is ever so slightly better for Biden


    Total votes Florida 2016

    Trump 4.6m Clinton 4.5m = 9.1m

    So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%

    Would mean 10.8m in FL

    Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.

    So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD

    Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that

    A big if BUT......

    DYOR

    8.7m is now 9m

    Biden is 108k ahead with a further 150k advantage if all early votes counted.

    Can Trump pull that back tomorrow.

    Doubtful IMO
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    I posted this 9 hrs ago about Florida since the post the position is ever so slightly better for Biden


    Total votes Florida 2016

    Trump 4.6m Clinton 4.5m = 9.1m

    So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%

    Would mean 10.8m in FL

    Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.

    So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD

    Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that

    A big if BUT......

    DYOR

    The thing is that the two counties in Florida where they have the highest early voting (Collier and Sumter) went (by over 60%) to trump.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    dixiedean said:

    Thoroughly depressing news.
    Here's my early call.
    2020 was bad. 2021 will be worse.

    I think you are right - I wish with all my heart I thought otherwise
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.

    Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.

    The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.

    There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

    It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
    Excellent post.

    By the way, I saw your final forecast earlier - 269 apiece.

    Actually, I don’t think that’s as unlikely are some are saying, although the two states that split their EC votes might be a spoiler!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    gealbhan said:

    Gaussian said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
    Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
    Ford pardoned Nixon in a way that made *any* Federal prosecution impossible.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    gealbhan said:

    Gaussian said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
    Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
    Yes.

    " I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Scott_xP said:
    "Amount of patients"

    On the front page of the Indy. It has certainly gone downhill.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    I posted this 9 hrs ago about Florida since the post the position is ever so slightly better for Biden


    Total votes Florida 2016

    Trump 4.6m Clinton 4.5m = 9.1m

    So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%

    Would mean 10.8m in FL

    Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.

    So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD

    Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that

    A big if BUT......

    DYOR

    8.7m is now 9m

    Biden is 108k ahead with a further 150k advantage if all early votes counted.

    Can Trump pull that back tomorrow.

    Doubtful IMO
    It really depends on how the nearlly 2M NPA votes have broken
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.

    Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.

    The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.

    There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

    It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
    Excellent post.

    By the way, I saw your final forecast earlier - 269 apiece.

    Actually, I don’t think that’s as unlikely are some are saying, although the two states that split their EC votes might be a spoiler!
    Thanks, apologies my second sentence should have read 'it is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the popular vote as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016.'

    Yes to produce the tie I had Biden picking up Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona and Trump holding his other 2016 states, though as you state if Biden won NE02 or Maine02 too he would still scrape a win
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    spudgfsh said:

    I posted this 9 hrs ago about Florida since the post the position is ever so slightly better for Biden


    Total votes Florida 2016

    Trump 4.6m Clinton 4.5m = 9.1m

    So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%

    Would mean 10.8m in FL

    Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.

    So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD

    Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that

    A big if BUT......

    DYOR

    8.7m is now 9m

    Biden is 108k ahead with a further 150k advantage if all early votes counted.

    Can Trump pull that back tomorrow.

    Doubtful IMO
    It really depends on how the nearlly 2M NPA votes have broken
    Presumably there is polling of U/I in Florida that might give us an idea of that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    In 2018 there was a load of ballots that didn't get delivered from Miami Dade to the FLorida election. So a poor postal service is baked in if you're comparing to 2018 in Fl. This time round people do actually seem to be actively hunting down ballots in the mail (Fuck knows why you'd use the mail at this point) but that's another story.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
    I knew Trump was desperate but registering votes from there too?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Gaussian said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
    He could only pardon himself - or get Pence to do it - for Federal Crimes. The State of New York, among others, is coming after him on a raft of stuff.
    Very good point.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FYI, for those reading the tea leaves, an interesting piece from Jon Ralston on Nevada:

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

    Now, he has called Nevada for Biden at 49-45 with 6% DK / Others. Not sure I agree with him on the 6% DKs but, if he is right, that's a swing of <1% to Biden from 2016.

    So, first of all, at least there (and we can argue if NV is typical), it's not much of a swing.

    The more interesting part may be in what the Rurals are doing.

    When Ralston started his blog, his view was that the Democrats would want to have a firewall in the high-80000s in Clark to feel confident about victory. His rationale now was that lead would mean something like a 54K statewide going into Election Day.

    The Dems have that 89K firewall from Clark but it has only translated into a 47K state firewall. Why? Because the rural areas have come out a lot more strongly for Trump than anticipated. Trump's advantage in 2016 in rural areas was 58K. Ralston thinks it could get to 80K and possibly more.

    Is it enough to win NV? Probably not (but depends on independents) but what it might suggest is that poorer whites are coming out in greater numbers than anticipated. And there is nothing particularly special about NV that suggests its more rural elements are unique. That might be relevant for other states.

    The other question is whether this is being picked up in the polls. If the polling is based off 2016 turnout, the answer is probably not which raises the question (again) of whether white non-college voters are being undercounted. Which would throw the polling into doubt.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonshing. He seems to be saying that some areas consistently tend to vote Democrat, but didn't always do that.

    It's truly spooky.
    I really don't see what is either astonishing or spooky about it. And I also don't think his maps are right.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
    Needs a SWAPO with somewhere else?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    spudgfsh said:

    It really depends on how the nearlly 2M NPA votes have broken

    Presumably there is polling of U/I in Florida that might give us an idea of that?
    Not seen any but it'd need to be more of an exit poll and that's hard to do with covid around
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
    Probably an error for Narnia.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    MrEd said:

    FYI, for those reading the tea leaves, an interesting piece from Jon Ralston on Nevada:

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

    Now, he has called Nevada for Biden at 49-45 with 6% DK / Others. Not sure I agree with him on the 6% DKs but, if he is right, that's a swing of <1% to Biden from 2016.

    So, first of all, at least there (and we can argue if NV is typical), it's not much of a swing.

    The more interesting part may be in what the Rurals are doing.

    When Ralston started his blog, his view was that the Democrats would want to have a firewall in the high-80000s in Clark to feel confident about victory. His rationale now was that lead would mean something like a 54K statewide going into Election Day.

    The Dems have that 89K firewall from Clark but it has only translated into a 47K state firewall. Why? Because the rural areas have come out a lot more strongly for Trump than anticipated. Trump's advantage in 2016 in rural areas was 58K. Ralston thinks it could get to 80K and possibly more.

    Is it enough to win NV? Probably not (but depends on independents) but what it might suggest is that poorer whites are coming out in greater numbers than anticipated. And there is nothing particularly special about NV that suggests its more rural elements are unique. That might be relevant for other states.

    The other question is whether this is being picked up in the polls. If the polling is based off 2016 turnout, the answer is probably not which raises the question (again) of whether white non-college voters are being undercounted. Which would throw the polling into doubt.</p>

    What’s your forecast for the overall result?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    Scott_xP said:
    I didn't realise HYUFD was that well off.
    Farage's old sidekick? Can't remember his name. The one with the insurance company.
    People with insurance companies are almost universally idiots and should be ignored.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    My son had an argument earlier today with someone he works with

    The other guy was saying he hates jews because they run the world

    He sent him a link to the story of unfolding events tonight - no response
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    NC
    Democrats 1,701,366 37.4
    Republicans 1,443,822 31.7

    Ballots not yet returned

    Dem 244K
    GOP 98K

    Turnout compared to 2016 - 95.4% 4.55m

    Likely 2020 Turnout 5.65m (scaling up on basis that national vote up from 135m to 160m)

    So Biden currently 258k in lead potential EV to come a further 146k ie 400k lead with OTD to come
  • rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I didn't realise HYUFD was that well off.
    Farage's old sidekick? Can't remember his name. The one with the insurance company.
    People with insurance companies are almost universally idiots and should be ignored.
    On a totally unrelated note, how if your new business in the auto sector going?
  • Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
    Needs a SWAPO with somewhere else?
    Namibia was the name of the African country that Trump 'invented' in an interview.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    edited November 2020
    Floater said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thoroughly depressing news.
    Here's my early call.
    2020 was bad. 2021 will be worse.

    I think you are right - I wish with all my heart I thought otherwise
    Depends a lot what kind of worse; after all, 1947 was objectively worse to live through than 1945, but that was in part because it was an inevitable bit of dung to wade through to reach better times.

    If we're lucky, 2020 was the last, frankly rubbish bit of a party. It stopped being fun long ago, but the logic of the situation had an unstoppable force. We're drinking that odd, frankly unpleasant spirit we brought back from somewhere sunny years ago because it's all that's left.

    In that case 2021, might be when we begin to clear up the mess. With a raging hangover. Happy new year!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
    Nebraska would be the US state that fits in that alphabetic sequence
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
    I knew Trump was desperate but registering votes from there too?
    I must admit I raised an eyebrow.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Hideous videos out of Vienna. Prayers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    gealbhan said:

    Gaussian said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
    Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
    Here's the Ford pardon of Nixon:

    By the President of the United States of America a Proclamation

    Richard Nixon became the thirty-seventh President of the United States on January 20, 1969 and was reelected in 1972 for a second term by the electors of forty-nine of the fifty states. His term in office continued until his resignation on August 9, 1974.

    Pursuant to resolutions of the House of Representatives, its Committee on the Judiciary conducted an inquiry and investigation on the impeachment of the President extending over more than eight months. The hearings of the Committee and its deliberations, which received wide national publicity over television, radio, and in printed media, resulted in votes adverse to Richard Nixon on recommended Articles of Impeachment.

    As a result of certain acts or omissions occurring before his resignation from the Office of President, Richard Nixon has become liable to possible indictment and trial for offenses against the United States. Whether or not he shall be so prosecuted depends on findings of the appropriate grand jury and on the discretion of the authorized prosecutor. Should an indictment ensue, the accused shall then be entitled to a fair trial by an impartial jury, as guaranteed to every individual by the Constitution.

    It is believed that a trial of Richard Nixon, if it became necessary, could not fairly begin until a year or more has elapsed. In the meantime, the tranquility to which this nation has been restored by the events of recent weeks could be irreparably lost by the prospects of bringing to trial a former President of the United States. The prospects of such trial will cause prolonged and divisive debate over the propriety of exposing to further punishment and degradation a man who has already paid the unprecedented penalty of relinquishing the highest elective office of the United States.

    Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.

    IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this eighth day of September, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth.

    GERALD R. FORD

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.

    Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.

    The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.

    There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

    It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
    The thing is that the Democrats lead in the popular vote is somewhat artificially inflated because Republicans living in California or New York or Illinois know there is not a cat in hell's chance that a Republican will win in these states at the Presidential level which means the election apparatus atrophies and people don't come out to vote.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    spudgfsh said:

    I posted this 9 hrs ago about Florida since the post the position is ever so slightly better for Biden


    Total votes Florida 2016

    Trump 4.6m Clinton 4.5m = 9.1m

    So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%

    Would mean 10.8m in FL

    Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.

    So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD

    Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that

    A big if BUT......

    DYOR

    The thing is that the two counties in Florida where they have the highest early voting (Collier and Sumter) went (by over 60%) to trump.
    What was their turnout in 2016 - because it is the change in turnout that is key.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Perhaps Trump should seek exile in Grimsby:

    https://twitter.com/piercepenniless/status/1323168171025747969?s=19
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
    Needs a SWAPO with somewhere else?
    Namibia was the name of the African country that Trump 'invented' in an interview.
    "Nambia". Was nice about it though, unlike the "shithole" countries he saw elsewhere in Africa.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Crony virus. Latest pandemic. Not as if quango appointments haven't been at any time before 2020, though Binghan's briefing does verge on the reckless given her position.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis
    /status/1323382151509905410/photo/1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited November 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Gaussian said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
    Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
    Here's the Ford pardon of Nixon:

    By the President of the United States of America a Proclamation

    Richard Nixon became the thirty-seventh President of the United States on January 20, 1969 and was reelected in 1972 for a second term by the electors of forty-nine of the fifty states. His term in office continued until his resignation on August 9, 1974.

    Pursuant to resolutions of the House of Representatives, its Committee on the Judiciary conducted an inquiry and investigation on the impeachment of the President extending over more than eight months. The hearings of the Committee and its deliberations, which received wide national publicity over television, radio, and in printed media, resulted in votes adverse to Richard Nixon on recommended Articles of Impeachment.

    As a result of certain acts or omissions occurring before his resignation from the Office of President, Richard Nixon has become liable to possible indictment and trial for offenses against the United States. Whether or not he shall be so prosecuted depends on findings of the appropriate grand jury and on the discretion of the authorized prosecutor. Should an indictment ensue, the accused shall then be entitled to a fair trial by an impartial jury, as guaranteed to every individual by the Constitution.

    It is believed that a trial of Richard Nixon, if it became necessary, could not fairly begin until a year or more has elapsed. In the meantime, the tranquility to which this nation has been restored by the events of recent weeks could be irreparably lost by the prospects of bringing to trial a former President of the United States. The prospects of such trial will cause prolonged and divisive debate over the propriety of exposing to further punishment and degradation a man who has already paid the unprecedented penalty of relinquishing the highest elective office of the United States.

    Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.

    IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this eighth day of September, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth.

    GERALD R. FORD

    "As a result of certain acts or omissions", I love it.

    Even so, great argument that 'tranquility' is lost by putting the man on trial, and actually punishing him for crimes would be 'degredation'. Might as well just accept the premise Presidents cannot commit crimes, if it is to be argued punishing them shouldn't happen even if they do commit crimes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    spudgfsh said:

    I posted this 9 hrs ago about Florida since the post the position is ever so slightly better for Biden


    Total votes Florida 2016

    Trump 4.6m Clinton 4.5m = 9.1m

    So if FL increases by the same proportion as the 135m to 160m nationally ie 18.5%

    Would mean 10.8m in FL

    Currently showing 8.7 M voted with 1m EV showing as not returned.

    So if the majority of those 1m are counted only just over 1.1m votes to come OTD

    Too big an ask for Trump if the numbers pan out like that

    A big if BUT......

    DYOR

    The thing is that the two counties in Florida where they have the highest early voting (Collier and Sumter) went (by over 60%) to trump.
    The result out of Sumter pretty much decides the election.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Chris said:

    Alistair said:

    For those interested here is the list of states with same day registration

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1323367641843699716?s=19

    Namibia?
    Probably an error for Narnia.
    Sorry, obviously it couldn't be Narnia. That would be ridiculous.

    I think something put talking horses into my head. Possibly Mr Ed?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.

    Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.

    The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.

    There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

    It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
    The thing is that the Democrats lead in the popular vote is somewhat artificially inflated because Republicans living in California or New York or Illinois know there is not a cat in hell's chance that a Republican will win in these states at the Presidential level which means the election apparatus atrophies and people don't come out to vote.
    The same argument could be applied to Democrats in Alabama and the like.

    Plus, there have historically been a lot of competitive down ticket races, and California has some pretty important ballot initiatives.

    (I would point out that President Trump's completely petty blocking of the California's desire to abolish Summer Time - Prop 7 in 2018 - has gone down like a bag of sick here. It'd be like the UK having a referendum on getting rid of summer time, and Brussels saying "Non" because it's California.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.

    Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.

    The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.

    There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

    It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
    The thing is that the Democrats lead in the popular vote is somewhat artificially inflated because Republicans living in California or New York or Illinois know there is not a cat in hell's chance that a Republican will win in these states at the Presidential level which means the election apparatus atrophies and people don't come out to vote.
    You could equally argue that Dems in those States have no massive incentive to vote since they know the State will be blue anyway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    LadyG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
    And yet deaths from terrorism in Europe are still at a fraction of the level of the 1970s.

    The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
    The existential threat is to our freedom, not our countries. Freedom of speech. Freedom to joke about religion. Freedom to blaspheme. Freedom to criticize faith. Freedom to enjoy the hard won victories of the Enlightenment

    A few nutters with AKs can kill a few dozen people. At best a few trained pilots in planes can bring down a few towers.

    That will not destroy the west. No, they destroy the west by destroying western liberty. And that is very do-able
    Yet we have in fact seen blasphemy laws abolished or weakened in Ireland, the UK and Spain in the last decade.

    So they seem to be achieving the exact opposite of their aims.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    rcs1000 said:

    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
    And yet deaths from terrorism in Europe are still at a fraction of the level of the 1970s.

    The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
    It's not existential, sure, but it can have a bigger impact than you imply nevertheless, as if nuber of deaths is the only potential impact.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    "Our enemies need to know who they are dealing with."

    https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1323377577969487872

    They know precisely who they are dealing with, that's why it's happening.
    And yet deaths from terrorism in Europe are still at a fraction of the level of the 1970s.

    The idea that there is any existential threat from Islamic terrorism is as absurd as thinking that the German people had anything to fear from the Jews.
    Pretty existential for European Jews.
  • rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    Gaussian said:

    gealbhan said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    At this stage it’s an if. But -

    If he has done an Al Capone on taxes, to stay in the US means jail? The only option is live abroad and await a pardon? There couldn’t be a compromise deal for retrospective payment, if intent to defraud was proven?
    He could try pardoning himself and get his Supreme Court to sign off on it. Or put Pence in for the last couple of weeks and have him issue the pardon. No guarantees either way though.
    Can he be pardoned from a hypothetical as yet unproven felony? I think more likely he will see himself in Florida, losing in court, realising he will need to take a vacation out the country. But he knows all this this very evening, as well as judging at what point he is considered a flight risk so needs to flit out before that moment.
    Here's the Ford pardon of Nixon:

    By the President of the United States of America a Proclamation

    Richard Nixon became the thirty-seventh President of the United States on January 20, 1969 and was reelected in 1972 for a second term by the electors of forty-nine of the fifty states. His term in office continued until his resignation on August 9, 1974.

    Pursuant to resolutions of the House of Representatives, its Committee on the Judiciary conducted an inquiry and investigation on the impeachment of the President extending over more than eight months. The hearings of the Committee and its deliberations, which received wide national publicity over television, radio, and in printed media, resulted in votes adverse to Richard Nixon on recommended Articles of Impeachment.

    As a result of certain acts or omissions occurring before his resignation from the Office of President, Richard Nixon has become liable to possible indictment and trial for offenses against the United States. Whether or not he shall be so prosecuted depends on findings of the appropriate grand jury and on the discretion of the authorized prosecutor. Should an indictment ensue, the accused shall then be entitled to a fair trial by an impartial jury, as guaranteed to every individual by the Constitution.

    It is believed that a trial of Richard Nixon, if it became necessary, could not fairly begin until a year or more has elapsed. In the meantime, the tranquility to which this nation has been restored by the events of recent weeks could be irreparably lost by the prospects of bringing to trial a former President of the United States. The prospects of such trial will cause prolonged and divisive debate over the propriety of exposing to further punishment and degradation a man who has already paid the unprecedented penalty of relinquishing the highest elective office of the United States.

    Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.

    IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this eighth day of September, in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and seventy-four, and of the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth.

    GERALD R. FORD

    I've never heard of the year being referred to before like that "the Independence of the United States of America the one hundred and ninety-ninth."

    Is that a common thing for them to do?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I didn't realise HYUFD was that well off.
    Farage's old sidekick? Can't remember his name. The one with the insurance company.
    People with insurance companies are almost universally idiots and should be ignored.
    On a totally unrelated note, how if your new business in the auto sector going?
    Really well, thank you.

    We have low customer acquisition costs, and low loss ratios.

    A combination that makes us very happy indeed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    Of course if the election was based on the more natural process of the winner being the candidate who gets most votes then we would hardly be discussing it tonight, we'd all be rearranging our sock drawers or washing our hair or something equally pressing.

    Admittedly what we have instead is vastly more entertaining from a betting angle but if Trump manages to game the system again then the system is well and truly broken as it will have delivered the "wrong" result 3 times out the last 8.

    The GOP knows it's chances of winning a national vote these days are slim having lost 7 of the last 8 POTUS PVs. That is why we are witnessing them putting more and more effort into stopping people voting, throwing votes out, preventing mail ballots being counted and so on. Where will it all end up, it's certainly no longer a democracy as we understand it in the UK.

    There is no reason the GOP could not win the popular vote in a presidential election if they picked a more moderate candidate eg McCain led Gore by a huge 59% to 35% margin in a February 2000 poll and John Kasich led Hillary Clinton by a 7.4% margin in head to heads in April 2016 (McCain's widow and Kasich have notably endorsed Biden this year v Trump).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

    It is just the base know they can get away with populist right candidates who can win the EC even if they lose the EC as George W Bush did in 2000 and Trump even more so in 2016. If the GOP starts to lose elections in the EC and by a big margin having nominated a hard right candidate then they will have no choice but to move to a more moderate candidate to win
    The thing is that the Democrats lead in the popular vote is somewhat artificially inflated because Republicans living in California or New York or Illinois know there is not a cat in hell's chance that a Republican will win in these states at the Presidential level which means the election apparatus atrophies and people don't come out to vote.
    Er, the same applied in reverse in TX until Democrats came out and voted and made the state competitive.

    It also applies in a lot of fairly populous states where the GOP are a shoo-in, eg IN and MO.

    Not that I’m defending the Electoral College. It’s great fun for maths geeks and stats nerds and betting fans, but as a way of electing a president over a single territory it’s utterly barmy.
This discussion has been closed.