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On the eve of the election UK punters still give Trump a 33% chance – politicalbetting.com
On the eve of the election UK punters still give Trump a 33% chance – politicalbetting.com
We have seen enough of this Betdata.io chart over the past months and the striking thing is how consistent the betting support has been for Donald Trump. Even though he’s been falling short by quite a margin in the polls punters in the UK seem much more ready to think he will actually hold on than other forecasters.
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But if men do?
Curious.
YouRes
Popinium
Opulus
Kantapoll
Deltar
That sort of random stuff
Given the huge differences in polling, it's fair enough to discount ALL polls conducted by companies or for clients with clear partisan leanings one way or another. I prefer to rely on the likes of Opinium, Ipsos and YouGov, whose motives we don't question over here and shouldn't over there. (They may still be wrong, but that's not the point.)
Putting the Democrats polls out to pasture doesn't change the picture that much, but discarding the Republican ones does, because it's theirs which are going against the general pattern. So that's where I smell a rat.
https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1323351637520470017?s=20
The penultimate procrastination of political polling Stateside as the election reaches its conclusion (along with my thesaurus):
Starting with the national picture - Rasmussen (not surprisingly) has the closest margin with Biden ahead 48-47, IBD/TIPP has tightened the race to a 49-46 lead for the challenger but a Scott Rasmussen poll for Just the News has Biden enjoying a 51-44 advantage:
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/one-day-election-biden-still-leads-trump-national-poll
As for state polling, the hugely partisan nature of the pollsters, their clients and their methodologies is rarely more apparent than in tonight's figures.
Polls from the likes of Susquehanna, Insider Advantage and Trafalgar naturally put Trump ahead but to redress the balance, we have Quinnipiac having Biden up five in Florida and four in Ohio.
A Landmark poll for WSBTV which shows Trump up four in Georgia but the crosstabs are limited and don't suggest if this includes those who have already voted.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/FINAL_WSBTV_Landmark_Poll_Georgia_PresSenate_Nov_1_2020.pdf
None of this, if I'm honest, informs any analysis. When you have one poll showing one candidate ahead by four and another showing the other candidate ahead by four, the notion the state is TCTC might not be wholly invalid.
I've put Texas and (more reluctantly) Georgia back in the Red column tonight so it's 291-185 to Biden with 62 TCTC (Ohio, Florida and North Carolina).
Things seem to have got a lot more violent in the last few years.
My final prediction - Trump wins 278-260.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/78rey
Votes not thrown out it seems.
Austrian police asking for people to stop posting videos of the attack
Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1323361907831721985
In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
Bliss.
Now he needs to beat his polls in quite different states.
I'm still scared though.
And there are still some Republicans with integrity, it seems.
1. Women outvote men by a further few points
2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden
You get the idea.
It's delicious.
Not anything in the America’s, too easy for the hot tuna to repatriate him some zero dark thirty. Switzerland doesn’t strike me as golf terrain. Russia will be a last resort. And Stopping off in Scotland till pardoned by next Republican President would sadly/fabulously bring about the end of the U.K?
I reckon in Middle East.
Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
As a note, the assailants (one downed) look to have been well equipped. The visuals indicate long arms are being used which if you are a Vienna cops running around with shortened weapons is a bit of a problem. Despite the story that the Synagogue itself may not have been breached , other Jewish related sites may have been have been targeted.
I've backed TWILIGHT PAYMENT at 33/1 each way but I think SURPRISE BABY will keep the race at home this year.
Talisker is a tricky drink to match with food. If you choose wisely though it can be perfect.
Here is my projection
https://www.270towin.com/maps/mVmAB
Biden 259
Trump 279
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1323364231471915008?s=21
the likelyhood is that there's a blue wave as much as a trump win
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/02/fault-in-nhs-covid-app-meant-thousands-at-risk-did-not-quarantine
https://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/1323306218283245568?s=20
According to twitter
Trumps been toast for months.
It was always going to be a difficult ask for a president wasting 4 years proving big on BS and small on strategy, which is what most voters realised long before covid came along like a klaxon waking the rest up. Health plan? Tax returns?
Truth is Trump was never a winner at all. He didn’t win last time without the army of centre left Hilary haters, Sanders luvvies and independents who quickly regretted sitting on their hands or voted Trump. unless they repeated this 2020 Trump was always a helpless sitting duck unable to scrape any win.
The September/October surprise was how presidential and moderate Biden came across, the solid dignity with which he handled Trumps attacks on himself and family, laptops and all.
But then a discarded sea slug penis in jelly would look more presidential and moderate compared to someone telling a militia to stand ready during a presidential debate - out of all the things Trump has said and done, that moment was pivot where he lost the independent vote and ensured the democrat vote was maximised and his election fate sealed. From that moment the landslide was signed sealed delivered. It wasn’t just covid. The pit of fire he will find himself in Trump has built for himself.
And welcome.
eg Iowa likely red
Turnout up by 25m cf 2016
FL Biden very slight fav
NC better for Trump than FL
ETC ETC
Bettors Gold
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html
"Hansen said that if he found the plaintiffs did have standing, he would have still ruled against them, "as to the voting that has already taken place," but that he would "probably enjoin tomorrow's votes."
"He also ordered that records of the votes already cast in the drive through facilities be maintained, in case his decision is reversed on appeal."
Dates are what still really confuse me, despite my working with American clients for almost a decade. It’s worst in summer: 7/8 is 8 July not 7 August.
The anti-Semitic nutjobs are red.
The sane ones are blue.
Trump holds NC, GA , IA, FL , OH and TX but loses PA, MI, WI , AZ and ME2. Final result 291/247. Biden wins. Trump accepts gracefully and become a game show host and senior golfing champion. Ok the last sentence I'm not going to bet on.
That can mean lots of things, but one possibility is it’s a big, organised Mumbai style assault.
Let’s hope not.
Relax - it's just the same as the last twenty ...
But that is a drive-by shooting.