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On the eve of the election UK punters still give Trump a 33% chance – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited November 2020 in General
imageOn the eve of the election UK punters still give Trump a 33% chance – politicalbetting.com

We have seen enough of this Betdata.io chart over the past months and the striking thing is how consistent the betting support has been for Donald Trump. Even though he’s been falling short by quite a margin in the polls punters in the UK seem much more ready to think he will actually hold on than other forecasters.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,602
    Women don't like the incumbent.

    But if men do?
  • Women don't like the incumbent.

    But if men do?

    The differential is enormous.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Women don't like the incumbent.

    But if men do?

    The differential is enormous.
    Are we talking elections or horizontal jogging here?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Women don't like the incumbent.

    But if men do?

    Women vote, men often don't (even in the States)
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    eek said:

    Women don't like the incumbent.

    But if men do?

    Women vote, men often don't (even in the States)
    55.1 to 42.9 in GA
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    When do we expect the first court injunctions to halt counting?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    TimT said:

    eek said:

    Women don't like the incumbent.

    But if men do?

    Women vote, men often don't (even in the States)
    55.1 to 42.9 in GA
    Astonishing difference
    Alistair said:
    Random British stuff?
  • kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:

    Women don't like the incumbent.

    But if men do?

    Women vote, men often don't (even in the States)
    55.1 to 42.9 in GA
    Astonishing difference
    Alistair said:
    Random British stuff?
    ComGov
    YouRes
    Popinium
    Opulus
    Kantapoll
    Deltar

    That sort of random stuff :lol:
  • There are videos of supposedly the shooter in Vienna online, but no blue checkmarks tweeting them (yet).
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited November 2020
    FPT
    Mal557 said:

    Final Quinnipiac:

    FLORIDA: Biden 47%, Trump 42%

    OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 43%

    NATIONAL: Biden 50%, Trump 39%

    https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3683

    Strong.
    Don't know how many of you share this feeling but despite it's high rating by 538 I find Q's polling suspiciously pro-Dem. I treat these numbers with caution.
    Quinnipiac are known to be D leaning, though as i understand it they are rated more for their methods and track record. Having said that I always move their polls a couple of % towards R. Having said that 3 polls which all leave 10% 'undecided or other' the day before the election means these go in the bin for me. So on face value 'strong' but in reality, not really telling us much at all, Trump at 39% in any national poll is laughable in itself
    Bear in mind that there are probably dark arts at play, such is the nature of this election, so beware taking anything at face value.

    Given the huge differences in polling, it's fair enough to discount ALL polls conducted by companies or for clients with clear partisan leanings one way or another. I prefer to rely on the likes of Opinium, Ipsos and YouGov, whose motives we don't question over here and shouldn't over there. (They may still be wrong, but that's not the point.)

    Putting the Democrats polls out to pasture doesn't change the picture that much, but discarding the Republican ones does, because it's theirs which are going against the general pattern. So that's where I smell a rat.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    twitter.com/go_panther/status/1323359124596424705?s=20
  • My nose tells me there's probably a tightening and it's also too late for Trump.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    Sorry but is it really appropriate for people to post violent footage on here? Do you think we all just HAVE to see it Francis?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020

    Sorry but is it really appropriate for people to post violent footage on here? Do you think we all just HAVE to see it Francis?

    Fair point, edited.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    edited November 2020
    Dirty Leeds have their pants down...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    eek said:

    Women don't like the incumbent.

    But if men do?

    Women vote, men often don't (even in the States)
    55.1 to 42.9 in GA
    Astonishing difference
    Alistair said:
    Random British stuff?
    ComGov
    YouRes
    Popinium
    Opulus
    Kantapoll
    Deltar

    That sort of random stuff :lol:
    He means gold standard pollsters ;)
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    This incident in Vienna is looking nasty and the gunman hasn't been quickly contained.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,895
    Evening all :)

    The penultimate procrastination of political polling Stateside as the election reaches its conclusion (along with my thesaurus):

    Starting with the national picture - Rasmussen (not surprisingly) has the closest margin with Biden ahead 48-47, IBD/TIPP has tightened the race to a 49-46 lead for the challenger but a Scott Rasmussen poll for Just the News has Biden enjoying a 51-44 advantage:

    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/one-day-election-biden-still-leads-trump-national-poll

    As for state polling, the hugely partisan nature of the pollsters, their clients and their methodologies is rarely more apparent than in tonight's figures.

    Polls from the likes of Susquehanna, Insider Advantage and Trafalgar naturally put Trump ahead but to redress the balance, we have Quinnipiac having Biden up five in Florida and four in Ohio.

    A Landmark poll for WSBTV which shows Trump up four in Georgia but the crosstabs are limited and don't suggest if this includes those who have already voted.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/FINAL_WSBTV_Landmark_Poll_Georgia_PresSenate_Nov_1_2020.pdf

    None of this, if I'm honest, informs any analysis. When you have one poll showing one candidate ahead by four and another showing the other candidate ahead by four, the notion the state is TCTC might not be wholly invalid.

    I've put Texas and (more reluctantly) Georgia back in the Red column tonight so it's 291-185 to Biden with 62 TCTC (Ohio, Florida and North Carolina).
  • Bloody hell those videos are crazy.

    Things seem to have got a lot more violent in the last few years.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    A Nightmare on Trump Street.

    My final prediction - Trump wins 278-260.

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/78rey
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    7 dead at least.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Just watched the 3 part prog about Trump. US politics beyond third world. It's voodoo. His Evangelicals are more weird than anything Louis Theroux could dig up. It must be a chilling thought that Trump could win again. He's more sinister than a clown
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Foxy said:

    Dirty Leeds have their pants down...

    They are at their best coming from behind.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    My nose tells me there's probably a tightening and it's also too late for Trump.

    I think so too, but with 2/3 of the votes already cast, it is too late.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Austrian police asking for people to stop posting videos of the attack
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    A Nightmare on Trump Street.

    My final prediction - Trump wins 278-260.

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/78rey

    I think that is the narrow path for Trump to win, but miss any of those swing states and his goose is cooked.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    The Fascists lose in Texas
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
  • Haggis, neeps and tatties for me tonight with a glass of Talisker.

    Bliss.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Foxy said:

    A Nightmare on Trump Street.

    My final prediction - Trump wins 278-260.

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/78rey

    I think that is the narrow path for Trump to win, but miss any of those swing states and his goose is cooked.
    Looks reassuringly difficult. Last time he outperformed in mid-West and that was sufficient.

    Now he needs to beat his polls in quite different states.

    I'm still scared though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    Democracy not yet dead in America.

    And there are still some Republicans with integrity, it seems.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Reading that a GOP judge put his principles before party very eloquently. An ultra cynic might say he will want to work again if Biden wins, but I will give him all the benefit of any sliver of doubt.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Just musing aloud but there has been much discussion about the 2016 polling miss reprising again tomorrow. But what if the polling miss is in the other direction ?!?

    1. Women outvote men by a further few points
    2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
    3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
    4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
    5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
    6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden

    You get the idea.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    Haggis, neeps and tatties for me tonight with a glass of Talisker.

    Bliss.

    So the panic buying not by Scots round your patch?

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Haggis, neeps and tatties for me tonight with a glass of Talisker.

    Bliss.

    Sounds like a great supper on a wet and windy autumnal night. Enjoy.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The penultimate procrastination of political polling Stateside as the election reaches its conclusion (along with my thesaurus):

    Starting with the national picture - Rasmussen (not surprisingly) has the closest margin with Biden ahead 48-47, IBD/TIPP has tightened the race to a 49-46 lead for the challenger but a Scott Rasmussen poll for Just the News has Biden enjoying a 51-44 advantage:

    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/one-day-election-biden-still-leads-trump-national-poll

    As for state polling, the hugely partisan nature of the pollsters, their clients and their methodologies is rarely more apparent than in tonight's figures.

    Polls from the likes of Susquehanna, Insider Advantage and Trafalgar naturally put Trump ahead but to redress the balance, we have Quinnipiac having Biden up five in Florida and four in Ohio.

    A Landmark poll for WSBTV which shows Trump up four in Georgia but the crosstabs are limited and don't suggest if this includes those who have already voted.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/FINAL_WSBTV_Landmark_Poll_Georgia_PresSenate_Nov_1_2020.pdf

    None of this, if I'm honest, informs any analysis. When you have one poll showing one candidate ahead by four and another showing the other candidate ahead by four, the notion the state is TCTC might not be wholly invalid.

    I've put Texas and (more reluctantly) Georgia back in the Red column tonight so it's 291-185 to Biden with 62 TCTC (Ohio, Florida and North Carolina).

    Thanks Stodge. I always enjoy reading your nightly roundups. They are excellent.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    I see the site is working great again on iOS. Hurrah!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Why not?

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    JACK_W said:

    Just musing aloud but there has been much discussion about the 2016 polling miss reprising again tomorrow. But what if the polling miss is in the other direction ?!?

    1. Women outvote men by a further few points
    2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
    3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
    4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
    5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
    6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden

    You get the idea.

    in that case the EC could be 413-125 (with biden carrying all of the tossup states including texas).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    JACK_W said:

    Just musing aloud but there has been much discussion about the 2016 polling miss reprising again tomorrow. But what if the polling miss is in the other direction ?!?

    1. Women outvote men by a further few points
    2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
    3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
    4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
    5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
    6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden

    You get the idea.

    I agree, MOE has two sides.
  • Haggis, neeps and tatties for me tonight with a glass of Talisker.

    Bliss.

    Sounds like a great supper on a wet and windy autumnal night. Enjoy.
    I love it.

    It's delicious.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    edited November 2020
    Ahead of the game post election Betting Tip. What’s the current book on which country Trump will flee to and claim asylum?

    Not anything in the America’s, too easy for the hot tuna to repatriate him some zero dark thirty. Switzerland doesn’t strike me as golf terrain. Russia will be a last resort. And Stopping off in Scotland till pardoned by next Republican President would sadly/fabulously bring about the end of the U.K?

    I reckon in Middle East.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    Why not?

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    I'd be very surprised to see New Hampshire flip: it has similar Trump favourables to California or Oregon.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
  • Very impressive that that Vienna police already have set up a link for people to upload all video / photos of the incident.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388

    Bloody hell those videos are crazy.

    Things seem to have got a lot more violent in the last few years.

    Not really. Using phones to film acts of random violence and posting them on social media has got a lot more common in the last few years, though.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,335
    edited November 2020
    Vienna may no longer be a single rolling incident, it may now be considered more than one though these can be fog. Unfortunately something may be going on at a Hilton Hotel.

    As a note, the assailants (one downed) look to have been well equipped. The visuals indicate long arms are being used which if you are a Vienna cops running around with shortened weapons is a bit of a problem. Despite the story that the Synagogue itself may not have been breached , other Jewish related sites may have been have been targeted.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,895
    Needless to say, there is a far more important race being run overnight and that's a kick off of 4am (UK) at Flemington - the Melbourne Cup.

    I've backed TWILIGHT PAYMENT at 33/1 each way but I think SURPRISE BABY will keep the race at home this year.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Casino

    Talisker is a tricky drink to match with food. If you choose wisely though it can be perfect.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.

  • Here is my projection

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/mVmAB

    Biden 259
    Trump 279
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697
    Sounds like a really bad situation in Vienna.

    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1323364231471915008?s=21
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    gealbhan said:

    Ahead of the game post election Betting Tip. What’s the current book on which country Trump will flee to and claim asylum?

    Not anything in the America’s, too easy for the hot tuna to repatriate him some zero dark thirty. Switzerland doesn’t strike me as golf terrain. Russia will be a last resort. And Stopping off in Scotland till pardoned by next Republican President would sadly/fabulously bring about the end of the U.K?

    I reckon in Middle East.

    Why not Brazil? There are precedents.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Foxy said:

    JACK_W said:

    Just musing aloud but there has been much discussion about the 2016 polling miss reprising again tomorrow. But what if the polling miss is in the other direction ?!?

    1. Women outvote men by a further few points
    2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
    3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
    4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
    5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
    6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden

    You get the idea.

    I agree, MOE has two sides.
    There is a problem with all elections (both here and in the US) of fighting the current election through the lens of the last. Some quality polling firms in the US have changed their methodology and may have overcorrected. most people (and politicians and commentators) in 2015 and 2017 got the UK elections wrong. the same in the US was true in 2000, 2004, 2016.

    the likelyhood is that there's a blue wave as much as a trump win
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Another day, another problem with covid app. This one seems more the fault of the developer...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/02/fault-in-nhs-covid-app-meant-thousands-at-risk-did-not-quarantine
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    stodge said:

    Needless to say, there is a far more important race being run overnight and that's a kick off of 4am (UK) at Flemington - the Melbourne Cup.

    I've backed TWILIGHT PAYMENT at 33/1 each way but I think SURPRISE BABY will keep the race at home this year.

    Surprise Baby, sired by Bozo?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    spudgfsh said:

    JACK_W said:

    Just musing aloud but there has been much discussion about the 2016 polling miss reprising again tomorrow. But what if the polling miss is in the other direction ?!?

    1. Women outvote men by a further few points
    2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
    3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
    4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
    5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
    6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden

    You get the idea.

    in that case the EC could be 413-125 (with biden carrying all of the tossup states including texas).
    Something like this perhaps? 🤪

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Foxy said:

    spudgfsh said:

    JACK_W said:

    Just musing aloud but there has been much discussion about the 2016 polling miss reprising again tomorrow. But what if the polling miss is in the other direction ?!?

    1. Women outvote men by a further few points
    2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
    3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
    4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
    5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
    6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden

    You get the idea.

    in that case the EC could be 413-125 (with biden carrying all of the tossup states including texas).
    Something like this perhaps? 🤪

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    I wouldn't give him Alaska or montanna but something like that. It's just as likely as a trump win of similar to 2016
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    edited November 2020
    Interesting view of how Biden's chances in Texas may be sensitive to turnout:

    https://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/1323306218283245568?s=20
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Caution though he cast doubt on the marquees as structures ordered they must be kept separate from other votes and advised against using them tomorrow.

    According to twitter
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    spudgfsh said:

    JACK_W said:

    Just musing aloud but there has been much discussion about the 2016 polling miss reprising again tomorrow. But what if the polling miss is in the other direction ?!?

    1. Women outvote men by a further few points
    2. 5% of GOP voters sit on their hand for POTUS
    3. Dem voters narrow the in person GOP vote edge
    4. Significant edge in crossover voting for Biden GOP 12.5 - Dem 5.0
    5. Uptick in first time, 18-30 and infrequent voters - lean Biden
    6. Independent/ non partisan voters break more heavily for Biden

    You get the idea.

    in that case the EC could be 413-125 (with biden carrying all of the tossup states including texas).
    419-119, as IA would also fall.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    Chris said:

    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

    Start with the easy things: let's get them to use the same temperature first. Then weights and measures, maybe.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Interesting view of how Biden's chances in Texas may be sensitive to turnout:

    https://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/1323306218283245568?s=20

    also interesting that current early votes is nearly 110% of the 2016 total vote.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:


    I'm still scared though.
    Chill man. Jitters from really really wanting something, not from the obvious continually passing before ours eyes. Truth is both GOP and Dem are hyping the closeness of the vote to get theirs out, embarresing lengths some of it really considering it’s been a foregone conclusion for ages now.

    Trumps been toast for months.

    It was always going to be a difficult ask for a president wasting 4 years proving big on BS and small on strategy, which is what most voters realised long before covid came along like a klaxon waking the rest up. Health plan? Tax returns?

    Truth is Trump was never a winner at all. He didn’t win last time without the army of centre left Hilary haters, Sanders luvvies and independents who quickly regretted sitting on their hands or voted Trump. unless they repeated this 2020 Trump was always a helpless sitting duck unable to scrape any win.

    The September/October surprise was how presidential and moderate Biden came across, the solid dignity with which he handled Trumps attacks on himself and family, laptops and all.

    But then a discarded sea slug penis in jelly would look more presidential and moderate compared to someone telling a militia to stand ready during a presidential debate - out of all the things Trump has said and done, that moment was pivot where he lost the independent vote and ensured the democrat vote was maximised and his election fate sealed. From that moment the landslide was signed sealed delivered. It wasn’t just covid. The pit of fire he will find himself in Trump has built for himself.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2020
    Chris said:

    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

    It wasn't long ago the news networks settled on these colours. There didn't used to be any pattern.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

    Start with the easy things: let's get them to use the same temperature first. Then weights and measures, maybe.
    I suppose driving on the correct side of the road will be the very last thing.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Why not?

    image
    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    I'd be very surprised to see New Hampshire flip: it has similar Trump favourables to California or Oregon.
    Well yeah that is probably the biggest reach of those, though i'm not really bothered by favourable figures.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Having just watched the end of the BBC2 three parter on Trump. I believe people will look back on this time and wonder how it could have happened rather like they do with Hitler. It's actually shocking
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Chris said:

    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

    Apparently they only consistently started to colour them the wrong way round in 2000. Weird considering "reds under the bed" and all that.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    gealbhan said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:


    I'm still scared though.
    Chill man. Jitters from really really wanting something, not from the obvious continually passing before ours eyes. Truth is both GOP and Dem are hyping the closeness of the vote to get theirs out, embarresing lengths some of it really considering it’s been a foregone conclusion for ages now.

    Trumps been toast for months.

    It was always going to be a difficult ask for a president wasting 4 years proving big on BS and small on strategy, which is what most voters realised long before covid came along like a klaxon waking the rest up. Health plan? Tax returns?

    Truth is Trump was never a winner at all. He didn’t win last time without the army of centre left Hilary haters, Sanders luvvies and independents who quickly regretted sitting on their hands or voted Trump. unless they repeated this 2020 Trump was always a helpless sitting duck unable to scrape any win.

    The September/October surprise was how presidential and moderate Biden came across, the solid dignity with which he handled Trumps attacks on himself and family, laptops and all.

    There's a huge of truth in this response.

    And welcome.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    Chris said:

    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

    Start with the easy things: let's get them to use the same temperature first. Then weights and measures, maybe.
    And the stripes on their ties.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    I posted this earlier very useful for betting positions

    eg Iowa likely red
    Turnout up by 25m cf 2016
    FL Biden very slight fav
    NC better for Trump than FL
    ETC ETC
    Bettors Gold

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Caution though he cast doubt on the marquees as structures ordered they must be kept separate from other votes and advised against using them tomorrow.

    According to twitter
    From NPR

    "Hansen said that if he found the plaintiffs did have standing, he would have still ruled against them, "as to the voting that has already taken place," but that he would "probably enjoin tomorrow's votes."

    "He also ordered that records of the votes already cast in the drive through facilities be maintained, in case his decision is reversed on appeal."
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Chris said:

    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

    Start with the easy things: let's get them to use the same temperature first. Then weights and measures, maybe.
    I can cope with those.

    Dates are what still really confuse me, despite my working with American clients for almost a decade. It’s worst in summer: 7/8 is 8 July not 7 August.
  • Scott_xP said:
    That headline effectively amounts to "Judge rejects Republican efforts to halt early vote counting in two thirds of Nevada."
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TimT said:

    Caution though he cast doubt on the marquees as structures ordered they must be kept separate from other votes and advised against using them tomorrow.

    According to twitter
    From NPR

    "Hansen said that if he found the plaintiffs did have standing, he would have still ruled against them, "as to the voting that has already taken place," but that he would "probably enjoin tomorrow's votes."

    "He also ordered that records of the votes already cast in the drive through facilities be maintained, in case his decision is reversed on appeal."
    I cannot for the life of me see the USSC overturning the decision of every lower and state court on this case. Of course, they shouldn't even take the appeal if there is one.
  • Chris said:

    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

    They do.

    The anti-Semitic nutjobs are red.

    The sane ones are blue.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Caution is all very well, but in 2016 the final 538 projection of Clinton's vote was 48.5%, and it turned out to be 48.2%.

    Currently the 538 projection of Biden's vote is 53.3%. Really, could Trump win if Biden had a popular vote above 50%? Let alone 51%? Or 52%? Or 53%?

    No

    In the immortal words of Rogerdamus. 😉
    Thanks for confirming that.

    Now is it safe to move on to discussing which countries may offer Trump asylum next year?
    He will hunker down in Florida, with a great sulk of Heath like proportions, a brooding toad on the face of the Republicans.
    If it's close does he run again in 2024?

  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Is it me, or is it just getting crazier out there?
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Final prediction from me. https://www.270towin.com/maps/n0Kld.png
    Trump holds NC, GA , IA, FL , OH and TX but loses PA, MI, WI , AZ and ME2. Final result 291/247. Biden wins. Trump accepts gracefully and become a game show host and senior golfing champion. Ok the last sentence I'm not going to bet on.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    spudgfsh said:

    Interesting view of how Biden's chances in Texas may be sensitive to turnout:

    https://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/1323306218283245568?s=20

    also interesting that current early votes is nearly 110% of the 2016 total vote.
    What do they predict as the turnout?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2020
    Yokes said:

    Vienna may no longer be a single rolling incident, it may now be considered more than one though these can be fog. Unfortunately something may be going on at a Hilton Hotel.

    As a note, the assailants (one downed) look to have been well equipped. The visuals indicate long arms are being used which if you are a Vienna cops running around with shortened weapons is a bit of a problem. Despite the story that the Synagogue itself may not have been breached , other Jewish related sites may have been have been targeted.

    Oh dear. It does look worse than a lone nutjob. I get especially worried when the authorities try to shut down social media sharing etc.

    That can mean lots of things, but one possibility is it’s a big, organised Mumbai style assault.

    Let’s hope not.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Another update from 538!

    Relax - it's just the same as the last twenty ...
  • Gaussian said:

    Chris said:

    I only wish the Americans could be persuaded to use the same colours as everyone else.

    Apparently they only consistently started to colour them the wrong way round in 2000. Weird considering "reds under the bed" and all that.
    Both parties consistently adopted blue, white and red until then (US Flag colours).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    gealbhan said:

    Is it me, or is it just getting crazier out there?
    When I was a kid, plenty of stories of people getting injured with fireworks, because they were dicking around with them. And definitely people used to go to the park and just let off a load for no good reason, generally being anti-social.

    But that is a drive-by shooting.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Two new polls by Reuters/Ipsos and Quinnipiac have Biden up 4 in Florida .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,099
    edited November 2020
    Be warned if you search twitter for what is going on in Vienna, somebody has obtained security camera footage of people being murdered and it is being shared / retweeted.
This discussion has been closed.