Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
Mostly Wallonia by all accounts, so the Wallonia numbers (being one third of the population) must be apocalyptic. 4th on the list is Andorra which makes one think it's a Catholic enclave thing rather than just 3 skews because small populations.
Is that what @Alistair meant by a small, dense nation? A sideways dig at the legendary Wallonian intellect?
Does it have that reputation or is it just that the name sounds funny in English? It has always struck me as bad luck to have to call yourself a Walloon.
The French and Flemish both make jokes about it.
French joke: Why do Wallonians not eat pretzels? Because they can’t untie the knots.
Flemish joke: Dear Mr President, Greenland is not for sale but for €1 you can have Wallonia.
Wallonia is lovely rolling countryside, and quite rural. I went on holiday there once as a bit of a joke* and had a great time. Hard to understand quite why they have such a covid problem.
*the joke was that no one goes to Belgium for a holiday, just to get somewhere else. My brother and I were however on the finest MZ motorcycles that you could buy for the price of a pint. We didn't want to go too far on those tyres and brakes...
Off topic I note local Tory MPs being skewered this morning for their grandstanding tweets attacking Labour's plan for a national lockdown now that they are supporting Shagger's plan for a national lockdown.
The party wouldn't be in such a mess had it not spent so much time trying to politically point score off this pandemic.
Yes. Maybe the surge of White High School education voters is on its way. Terrifying.
The previous Selzer poll have been neck and neck. This one seems huuuuuge swing amongst independents and a big swing amongst women to give Trump the lead.
Yes. Maybe the surge of White High School education voters is on its way. Terrifying.
The previous Selzer poll have been neck and neck. This one seems huuuuuge swing amongst independents and a big swing amongst women to give Trump the lead.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
Well done Pulpstar. An interesting header. A grisly state of affairs indeed!
I was surprised though that Reagan found his way into the goodies column. He was leader when I first realised that US politics stank. Mainly South America where democracy always took a back seat to US interests but the dirty dealing was also domestic. The Oliver North affair for starters and for those who thought Thatcher gave too much love to Pinochet- Reagan didn't even bother with dinner and flowers.
Ronald Reagan is guilty of the most brazen act of chutzpah ever, when making a Presidential address explaining Iran-Contra:
‘A few months ago, I told the American people I did not trade arms for hostages. My heart and my best intentions still tell me that is true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not.‘
Yes, he was a very charming crook. And perhaps not even that, as proving intent in his later years would have been ... problematic.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
That can't be the whole story, because SG, JP and SK had quite a lot of transmission inside the borders, which they managed to control. If you've failed to control transmission inside your borders, there's not much point in stopping people from equally or less failed places from coming in.
Well done Pulpstar. An interesting header. A grisly state of affairs indeed!
I was surprised though that Reagan found his way into the goodies column. He was leader when I first realised that US politics stank. Mainly South America where democracy always took a back seat to US interests but the dirty dealing was also domestic. The Oliver North affair for starters and for those who thought Thatcher gave too much love to Pinochet- Reagan didn't even bother with dinner and flowers.
Ronald Reagan is guilty of the most brazen act of chutzpah ever, when making a Presidential address explaining Iran-Contra:
‘A few months ago, I told the American people I did not trade arms for hostages. My heart and my best intentions still tell me that is true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not.‘
That is beyond chutzpah! Johnathan Aitken was jailed for less. But an excellent quote nontheless.
Well done Pulpstar. An interesting header. A grisly state of affairs indeed!
I was surprised though that Reagan found his way into the goodies column. He was leader when I first realised that US politics stank. Mainly South America where democracy always took a back seat to US interests but the dirty dealing was also domestic. The Oliver North affair for starters and for those who thought Thatcher gave too much love to Pinochet- Reagan didn't even bother with dinner and flowers.
My in laws think he was the worst president till Trump but Reagan defeated Carter and Mondale with good humour. Unless I've missed something he wasn't heading to the courts a few days before the 84 election to try and rig it for himself. He was just very popular
Well done Pulpstar. An interesting header. A grisly state of affairs indeed!
I was surprised though that Reagan found his way into the goodies column. He was leader when I first realised that US politics stank. Mainly South America where democracy always took a back seat to US interests but the dirty dealing was also domestic. The Oliver North affair for starters and for those who thought Thatcher gave too much love to Pinochet- Reagan didn't even bother with dinner and flowers.
Ronald Reagan is guilty of the most brazen act of chutzpah ever, when making a Presidential address explaining Iran-Contra:
‘A few months ago, I told the American people I did not trade arms for hostages. My heart and my best intentions still tell me that is true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not.‘
Yes, he was a very charming crook. And perhaps not even that, as proving intent in his later years would have been ... problematic.
Jacques Chirac was a crook too. But France knew it had to overwhemingly vote for him over Le Pen.
If the Federal Judge rules that the drive-thru votes in Texas are invalid, where does the case go from there?
Does his Judgement over-rule the Texas Supreme Court?
And if it does, can his Judgement be appealed to a Federal Appeals Court?
And after that would it ultimately go to the US Supreme Court?
IANAL but IIUC: 1) Yes, it can go to a Federal Appeals Court 2) After that either side could appeal it to SCOTUS, but it's up to SCOTUS whether or not to take it
It I was a ratfucking partisan judge I think what I'd do would be to just tell them to make sure they had a separate count for the ballots cast in the disputed way, then tell everybody to come back in a week. In all probability it will turn out not to be important in which case you can make some reasonable-sounding judge-like ruling, but if an important race turns out to turn on these ballots you can turn the ratfucking up to 11, and also start the clock ticking later, reducing the time for appeals.
I wish EiT would join the leader-writing team on PB - his posts are such good value.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
No. The index case was discovered when they requested a test prior to travel to the UK - AFAIK the source of their infection is still unknown, but all subsequent cases have been identified via track & trace - and all were already in quarantine.
My info came from Alderney, so could have been third or fourth hand!
If the election turns on Pennsylvania, and if it’s anywhere close, it will be a shitshow. Read the whole article, but this gives a flavour.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans Might Only Need to Stall to Win A political analyst warned, “Harrisburg in 2020 could be Tallahassee in 2000.” https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/in-pennsylvania-republicans-might-only-need-to-stall-to-win ... Republicans in Pennsylvania had refused to allow ballots to be counted, or even sorted and opened—a process known as pre-canvassing—before 7 a.m. on Election Day. This will likely cause significant delays. The count in Pennsylvania will be further delayed by the secrecy envelopes. Bob Harvie, a Democratic county commissioner in Bucks County, recently told me, of this summer’s primaries, “What took us the longest was to open the envelope, then open the secrecy envelope, then flatten the ballot as much as we could before it was counted. It was an endless process.” In the primary, his district counted seventy-two thousand votes. For the general election, he is expecting to count roughly a hundred and sixty thousand, and he estimates that it will take his team an hour to open every four thousand envelopes. “We’re going to have a hundred people working twenty-four hours a day to count these ballots,” Harvie said. Gene DiGirolamo, a Republican minority commissioner in the district, expressed frustration: “We’re stuck with the way the law is written.” He feared that it would be days after the election before Bucks would be able to come up with a preliminary vote count. “This isn’t just about Trump and Biden,” he told me. “We’ve got one shot of doing this, and if the country is waiting on Pennsylvania, we’re going to look terrible.”...
The DMZ poll is definitely a Halloween Horror. IA-1 redder than IA-4 looks a bit odd though
It would be easy to laugh off if the BBC would stop showing clips of Biden. Using Obama as his warm up act was not a good idea. This is obviously a contest between Trump lovers and haters. Biden would do better to stay at home
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
That can't be the whole story, because SG, JP and SK had quite a lot of transmission inside the borders, which they managed to control. If you've failed to control transmission inside your borders, there's not much point in stopping people from equally or less failed places from coming in.
Having a robust test, track & trace system in place - Guernsey can run the UK equivalent of 2 million tests a day with results within 24 hours. Total deaths 28% of UK's per capita (all over 80, all care home).
Well done Pulpstar. An interesting header. A grisly state of affairs indeed!
I was surprised though that Reagan found his way into the goodies column. He was leader when I first realised that US politics stank. Mainly South America where democracy always took a back seat to US interests but the dirty dealing was also domestic. The Oliver North affair for starters and for those who thought Thatcher gave too much love to Pinochet- Reagan didn't even bother with dinner and flowers.
Ronald Reagan is guilty of the most brazen act of chutzpah ever, when making a Presidential address explaining Iran-Contra:
‘A few months ago, I told the American people I did not trade arms for hostages. My heart and my best intentions still tell me that is true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not.‘
Yes, he was a very charming crook. And perhaps not even that, as proving intent in his later years would have been ... problematic.
Jacques Chirac was a crook too. But France knew it had to overwhemingly vote for him over Le Pen.
The difference between them and Trump is that, while they sometimes played outside the rules, they accepted the fact that there are rules. Trump would destroy the lot.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
If the election turns on Pennsylvania, and if it’s anywhere close, it will be a shitshow. Read the whole article, but this gives a flavour.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans Might Only Need to Stall to Win A political analyst warned, “Harrisburg in 2020 could be Tallahassee in 2000.” https://www.newyorker.com/news/campaign-chronicles/in-pennsylvania-republicans-might-only-need-to-stall-to-win ... Republicans in Pennsylvania had refused to allow ballots to be counted, or even sorted and opened—a process known as pre-canvassing—before 7 a.m. on Election Day. This will likely cause significant delays. The count in Pennsylvania will be further delayed by the secrecy envelopes. Bob Harvie, a Democratic county commissioner in Bucks County, recently told me, of this summer’s primaries, “What took us the longest was to open the envelope, then open the secrecy envelope, then flatten the ballot as much as we could before it was counted. It was an endless process.” In the primary, his district counted seventy-two thousand votes. For the general election, he is expecting to count roughly a hundred and sixty thousand, and he estimates that it will take his team an hour to open every four thousand envelopes. “We’re going to have a hundred people working twenty-four hours a day to count these ballots,” Harvie said. Gene DiGirolamo, a Republican minority commissioner in the district, expressed frustration: “We’re stuck with the way the law is written.” He feared that it would be days after the election before Bucks would be able to come up with a preliminary vote count. “This isn’t just about Trump and Biden,” he told me. “We’ve got one shot of doing this, and if the country is waiting on Pennsylvania, we’re going to look terrible.”...
He's going to "win", isn't he?
My gut view that Trump will win hasn’t changed, but I thought I was being overly pessimistic. Now I see these reports I think Trump will definitely cheat his way to a hollow ‘victory’.
If the Federal Judge rules that the drive-thru votes in Texas are invalid, where does the case go from there?
Does his Judgement over-rule the Texas Supreme Court?
And if it does, can his Judgement be appealed to a Federal Appeals Court?
And after that would it ultimately go to the US Supreme Court?
Fifth Circuit federal appeals court. Which is heavily conservative and seats more Trump appointees than those of Obama and Clinton combined (which gives an idea of the extent to which Trump has given priority to packing the courts over the last four years.
McConnell didn't just block Obama from seating Garland. The whole way through they slowed up judicial appointments.
I think it's important to remember that Trump is merely the culmination of a long-term project from the GOP. It's one reason why humiliating Trump with a landslide defeat wouldn't be enough. The GOP as a whole, as it currently exists, would need to be routed, and routed again and again.
And the irony is that those with only a peripheral knowledge of these things believe that it was the Democrats who need to take the blame for the abolition of the filibuster for judicial appointments and starting the spiral. That was all i had heard about it until i learnt a bit more.
It's pretty sick when you hear Republicans stating that Barratt was "an excellent candidate" and there was absolutely no justification for not seating her on the Supreme Court (implication - Democrats just playing party games).
When the Republicans spent several years block each and every Obama nominee to courts at every level, for no other reason than they were Obama nominees.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
That can't be the whole story, because SG, JP and SK had quite a lot of transmission inside the borders, which they managed to control. If you've failed to control transmission inside your borders, there's not much point in stopping people from equally or less failed places from coming in.
Having a robust test, track & trace system in place - Guernsey can run the UK equivalent of 2 million tests a day with results within 24 hours. Total deaths 28% of UK's per capita (all over 80, all care home).
The rules are tight, too. My sister came back to Alderney after a medical trip to the mainland and wan't allowed a booked visit by someone from Guernsey who was going to give mobility advice.
Well done Pulpstar. An interesting header. A grisly state of affairs indeed!
I was surprised though that Reagan found his way into the goodies column. He was leader when I first realised that US politics stank. Mainly South America where democracy always took a back seat to US interests but the dirty dealing was also domestic. The Oliver North affair for starters and for those who thought Thatcher gave too much love to Pinochet- Reagan didn't even bother with dinner and flowers.
My in laws think he was the worst president till Trump but Reagan defeated Carter and Mondale with good humour. Unless I've missed something he wasn't heading to the courts a few days before the 84 election to try and rig it for himself. He was just very popular
Dirty tricks, dirt and flinging shit at opponents have always been part and parcel of US Elections. I have never, ever heard of accepted ballots being challenged to be thrown out. The last minute decision to switch Minnesota's deadline was bad but trying quite literally to get over 100,000 heavily Democrat votes thrown in the bin is on another planet
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
That can't be the whole story, because SG, JP and SK had quite a lot of transmission inside the borders, which they managed to control. If you've failed to control transmission inside your borders, there's not much point in stopping people from equally or less failed places from coming in.
Having a robust test, track & trace system in place - Guernsey can run the UK equivalent of 2 million tests a day with results within 24 hours. Total deaths 28% of UK's per capita (all over 80, all care home).
I think it rests on a moderate GOP leadership taking over and doing a Starmer.
He's shown you can purge extremism from a party, although it is harder in a federalised system.
The Primary system makes it harder. It means those people pictured in the thread header, picketing Barr for not abusing the law enough, are the ones voting in Primaries to keep extremism in control of the GOP.
There's a really good question here: how does the US get unfucked (politically)?
Generally this kind of thing happens gradually. There's a lot of attention on voter suppression and legal ratfuckery in this cycle, but that's not because it's new, it's mainly because Trump says the quiet part out loud. Voting access is gradually getting better, and what used to be shockingly bad voting machines and audit trails are getting gradually better.
Trump loses, judges who were appointed for their hackishness at that precise moment get more into the whole judge thing and less into the hack thing, others retire and get replaced, Dems add some new states, EC-related demographic trends come and go. Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried.
Currently Trumpism appears nasty and dangerous but also *powerful*. If Trump loses comprehensively it will look increasingly *ridiculous*, as Brexit already does. The GOP will still have a Trumpist element but for all its faults the US system can correct very quickly; You're only a single primary from a quite different GOP - or rather, the same GOP, but with different strains in the ascendant.
"Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried."
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
That can't be the whole story, because SG, JP and SK had quite a lot of transmission inside the borders, which they managed to control. If you've failed to control transmission inside your borders, there's not much point in stopping people from equally or less failed places from coming in.
Having a robust test, track & trace system in place - Guernsey can run the UK equivalent of 2 million tests a day with results within 24 hours. Total deaths 28% of UK's per capita (all over 80, all care home).
The benefits of living in a tax haven?
The benefits of having an epidemiologist as the CMO who was already prepared when the virus arrived and of having politicians who followed her advice.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
Hi Carlotta. Do you know if Sark is allowing visitors at the moment?
Trump may be a populist, non establishment rabble rouser who is a million miles from establishment former Republican nominees like Ford, Bush Snr, Romney, McCain or even George W Bush and Reagan but I think calling him a Fascist is a bit extreme, firstly as Fascism generally requires corporatism too and Trump is no corporatist more a protectionist and second as it often goes hand in hand with an aggressive foreign policy abroad and invading other nations, Trump has pursued the least interventionist policy abroad since Carter
I see Trump winning enough of the tight races to stay in the fight and the courts getting him over the line.
When I’m told that the US and the UK share a common set of values, it scares the life out of me. But there is no doubt that people such as Johnson, Patel, Gove and Cummings look at how the GOP’s highly effective hollowing out of American democracy has been largely facilitated by partisan judges and like what they see. Hence the Tory plans to hobble the independent judiciary here.
Yawn, typical Don Brind stuff from you with the Lefty herd all "liking" it.
Getting a bit more nervous with reports that hundreds of thousands of votes could be thrown out - either by sitting in mail rooms in PA, or disregarding ballot boxes in Harris County. If that happens the USA is no more a democracy than Iran.
Now giving odds in two dice terms 2 (1/36) Trump wins, catastrophic polling failure. 3 (2/36) Trump and corrupt judges steal the election from Biden. 4+ (33/36) Biden wins
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
That can't be the whole story, because SG, JP and SK had quite a lot of transmission inside the borders, which they managed to control. If you've failed to control transmission inside your borders, there's not much point in stopping people from equally or less failed places from coming in.
Having a robust test, track & trace system in place - Guernsey can run the UK equivalent of 2 million tests a day with results within 24 hours. Total deaths 28% of UK's per capita (all over 80, all care home).
The rules are tight, too. My sister came back to Alderney after a medical trip to the mainland and wan't allowed a booked visit by someone from Guernsey who was going to give mobility advice.
And those who break them can, and have been, fined up to £10,000. Alderney is even tougher than Guernsey because they don't have the medical facilities.
That's a weird thing to say. So-called "Liberals" like Trudeau have shown what side of the fence they are on. Biden Kamala would likely side with Trudeau, not Macron.
Macron is showing other Western leaders *precisely* how you crush populism from the centre.
Getting a bit more nervous with reports that hundreds of thousands of votes could be thrown out - either by sitting in mail rooms in PA, or disregarding ballot boxes in Harris County. If that happens the USA is no more a democracy than Iran.
Now giving odds in two dice terms 2 (1/36) Trump wins, catastrophic polling failure. 3 (2/36) Trump and corrupt judges steal the election from Biden. 4+ (33/36) Biden wins
There's a really good question here: how does the US get unfucked (politically)?
Generally this kind of thing happens gradually. There's a lot of attention on voter suppression and legal ratfuckery in this cycle, but that's not because it's new, it's mainly because Trump says the quiet part out loud. Voting access is gradually getting better, and what used to be shockingly bad voting machines and audit trails are getting gradually better.
Trump loses, judges who were appointed for their hackishness at that precise moment get more into the whole judge thing and less into the hack thing, others retire and get replaced, Dems add some new states, EC-related demographic trends come and go. Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried.
Currently Trumpism appears nasty and dangerous but also *powerful*. If Trump loses comprehensively it will look increasingly *ridiculous*, as Brexit already does. The GOP will still have a Trumpist element but for all its faults the US system can correct very quickly; You're only a single primary from a quite different GOP - or rather, the same GOP, but with different strains in the ascendant.
"Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried."
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
I didn't say it had gone for good, it's always been there and it comes and goes. However I think you'd better predict which it will do based on the correlation "length of time since last time it was tried, and intensity with which you tried it" than based on "economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration".
I think it rests on a moderate GOP leadership taking over and doing a Starmer.
He's shown you can purge extremism from a party, although it is harder in a federalised system.
The Primary system makes it harder. It means those people pictured in the thread header, picketing Barr for not abusing the law enough, are the ones voting in Primaries to keep extremism in control of the GOP.
Exactly. It is why I am high on Tom Cotton for the nom.
IF Biden wins and IF that win is a Reagan like landslide and IF the mid terms go badly for the GOP then I can see a non-Trumpite getting the nomination. But it would have to be all those 3 things happening and the mid terms are going to go great for the GOP.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
That can't be the whole story, because SG, JP and SK had quite a lot of transmission inside the borders, which they managed to control. If you've failed to control transmission inside your borders, there's not much point in stopping people from equally or less failed places from coming in.
Having a robust test, track & trace system in place - Guernsey can run the UK equivalent of 2 million tests a day with results within 24 hours. Total deaths 28% of UK's per capita (all over 80, all care home).
The benefits of living in a tax haven?
The benefits of having an epidemiologist as the CMO who was already prepared when the virus arrived and of having politicians who followed her advice.
Well, I'd certainly grant you the last point is a BIG difference versus UK's current shambles of a government.
Starmer’s call for a lockdown to coincide with half term was incredibly sensible. It completely sidelined the problem of schools causing the rise in (some of) the cases.
Due to Johnson’s dither and delay we’re going to lockdown longer. I don’t think one month will be enough at this stage.
It was nice of the Tories to completely destroy the Captain Hindsight attacks they came up with, I wonder if they’re throwing the next election on purpose.
Trump may be a populist, non establishment rabble rouser who is a million miles from establishment former Republican nominees like Ford, Bush Snr, Romney, McCain or even George W Bush and Reagan but I think calling him a Fascist is a bit extreme, firstly as Fascism generally requires corporatism too and Trump is no corporatist more a protectionist and second as it often goes hand in hand with an aggressive foreign policy abroad and invading other nations, Trump has pursued the least interventionist policy abroad since Carter
Let's just settle for calling him a Trumpist then, and his name can remained in history as a permanently defined term stained in shame and infamy.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
Hi Carlotta. Do you know if Sark is allowing visitors at the moment?
Same quarantine rules as Guernsey - test on arrival, then 14 days self quarantine, robustly policed with fines up to £10,000 for breaches.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
Mostly Wallonia by all accounts, so the Wallonia numbers (being one third of the population) must be apocalyptic. 4th on the list is Andorra which makes one think it's a Catholic enclave thing rather than just 3 skews because small populations.
Is that what @Alistair meant by a small, dense nation? A sideways dig at the legendary Wallonian intellect?
Does it have that reputation or is it just that the name sounds funny in English? It has always struck me as bad luck to have to call yourself a Walloon.
The French and Flemish both make jokes about it.
French joke: Why do Wallonians not eat pretzels? Because they can’t untie the knots.
Flemish joke: Dear Mr President, Greenland is not for sale but for €1 you can have Wallonia.
I'd not lead with it.
It must really p1ss the Germans off to be the ones lumbered with the "no sense of humour" reputation.
Although Iowa's six EC votes don't make much difference, the Republicans will be delighted by the Senate numbers. If Ernst wins, they're likely up to retain 50 Senate seats.
If the Federal Judge rules that the drive-thru votes in Texas are invalid, where does the case go from there?
Does his Judgement over-rule the Texas Supreme Court?
And if it does, can his Judgement be appealed to a Federal Appeals Court?
And after that would it ultimately go to the US Supreme Court?
Fifth Circuit federal appeals court. Which is heavily conservative and seats more Trump appointees than those of Obama and Clinton combined (which gives an idea of the extent to which Trump has given priority to packing the courts over the last four years.
McConnell didn't just block Obama from seating Garland. The whole way through they slowed up judicial appointments.
I think it's important to remember that Trump is merely the culmination of a long-term project from the GOP. It's one reason why humiliating Trump with a landslide defeat wouldn't be enough. The GOP as a whole, as it currently exists, would need to be routed, and routed again and again.
And the irony is that those with only a peripheral knowledge of these things believe that it was the Democrats who need to take the blame for the abolition of the filibuster for judicial appointments and starting the spiral. That was all i had heard about it until i learnt a bit more.
It's pretty sick when you hear Republicans stating that Barratt was "an excellent candidate" and there was absolutely no justification for not seating her on the Supreme Court (implication - Democrats just playing party games)...
For once, I think Democrats won the messaging on this. Appreciating the Barrett, while probably mad as a box of frogs, is obviously a far smarter lawyer than Kavanaugh, and unquestionably better able to present as human, they attacked the process rather than her.
Iowa has moved firmly to Republicans over the past month.Really little chance pof change in Texas or Georgia Looks as if Florida and Airzona have been held, South Carolina probably as well. All on Michigan, Pennsylvannia and Wisconsin. Suspect they will just go Democrat, that is what 44 votes added to Clintons 227, makes 271, OUch. probably the Maine District and maybe one from Nebraska 2 District, ie 272 or 273. Trump will go to the Supreme Court, they'll find a reason to block the result. Congress and Senat may try to block him. They will be suspended, Trump will remain Prtesident, the Opposition will be locked up and freedom extinguished. If I was black I would cross the bordser to Canada. The future looks neither red or blue, just a mess. Air Force and Armed Forces moved from Europe, how could we stop the Russians oh it just goes on and on.
There's a really good question here: how does the US get unfucked (politically)?
Generally this kind of thing happens gradually. There's a lot of attention on voter suppression and legal ratfuckery in this cycle, but that's not because it's new, it's mainly because Trump says the quiet part out loud. Voting access is gradually getting better, and what used to be shockingly bad voting machines and audit trails are getting gradually better.
Trump loses, judges who were appointed for their hackishness at that precise moment get more into the whole judge thing and less into the hack thing, others retire and get replaced, Dems add some new states, EC-related demographic trends come and go. Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried.
Currently Trumpism appears nasty and dangerous but also *powerful*. If Trump loses comprehensively it will look increasingly *ridiculous*, as Brexit already does. The GOP will still have a Trumpist element but for all its faults the US system can correct very quickly; You're only a single primary from a quite different GOP - or rather, the same GOP, but with different strains in the ascendant.
"Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried."
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
Yes, simplistic solutions to complex problems tend to be a vote winner. The problem with Populism is in government, not opposition.
Yes. Maybe the surge of White High School education voters is on its way. Terrifying.
The previous Selzer poll have been neck and neck. This one seems huuuuuge swing amongst independents and a big swing amongst women to give Trump the lead.
Narrator voice: It was never actually neck and neck in Iowa.
There's a really good question here: how does the US get unfucked (politically)?
Generally this kind of thing happens gradually. There's a lot of attention on voter suppression and legal ratfuckery in this cycle, but that's not because it's new, it's mainly because Trump says the quiet part out loud. Voting access is gradually getting better, and what used to be shockingly bad voting machines and audit trails are getting gradually better.
Trump loses, judges who were appointed for their hackishness at that precise moment get more into the whole judge thing and less into the hack thing, others retire and get replaced, Dems add some new states, EC-related demographic trends come and go. Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried.
Currently Trumpism appears nasty and dangerous but also *powerful*. If Trump loses comprehensively it will look increasingly *ridiculous*, as Brexit already does. The GOP will still have a Trumpist element but for all its faults the US system can correct very quickly; You're only a single primary from a quite different GOP - or rather, the same GOP, but with different strains in the ascendant.
"Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried."
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
I didn't say it had gone for good, it's always been there and it comes and goes. However I think you'd better predict which it will do based on the correlation "length of time since last time it was tried, and intensity with which you tried it" than based on "economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration".
Populism never "works" because it proposes simple solutions to complex problems. However, voters vote them in when they're talking about the complex problems that other moderate politicians are ignoring.
So, the correct response is to both give them enough rope *and* to then park your tanks on their lawn.
Far too many seem to think the answer is just the former.
The government will be under huge pressure to extend the lockdown on 2nd December. And, will probably decide that the best course is to cave in to such pressure.
I see Trump winning enough of the tight races to stay in the fight and the courts getting him over the line.
When I’m told that the US and the UK share a common set of values, it scares the life out of me. But there is no doubt that people such as Johnson, Patel, Gove and Cummings look at how the GOP’s highly effective hollowing out of American democracy has been largely facilitated by partisan judges and like what they see. Hence the Tory plans to hobble the independent judiciary here.
Yawn, typical Don Brind stuff from you with the Lefty herd all "liking" it.
Give it a rest.
Sunday just ain’t Sunday until CR picks a fight with SO.
Very effective (though deteriorated towards the end). What is it about Tory aides and ad men? I guess it's that selling is more important than the product or maybe just a tangential relationship with truth
I think it's quite likely to see a marked improvement in test and trace by December.
There was a marginal improvement last week but capacity is growing to keep track with increasing cases. If cases fall then test and trace should automatically improve. If capacity continues to improve while cases fall then there should be a marked improvement in test and trace.
The real problem is Johnson has now bet the whole house on getting the pandemic under control while keeping schools open, and he has pretty well trashed the whole economy to do so.
Which may be acceptable to everyone, given how important education is - if it is possible.
If we get to the 22nd November and there’s only a limited effect, what does he do then? Does he accept he’s failed, and shut schools early? What about unis? Does he order students to stay in halls over Christmas? If so, expect actual riots. If not, there seems a risk of a massive spike in infections as they go home and spread it all round the country. When do they return? Do they return?
I worry that by delaying two weeks he has made bad choices into disastrous ones. It seems very possible we will two months from now have a pandemic that shows no signs of abating and a trashed economy.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
The entire population is a little bigger than Ayr , a small town. It is an island, a tiny one. It bears no resemblance to a country with borders, large cities or airports etc and so cannot be used in any way as a comparison.
Iowa has moved firmly to Republicans over the past month.Really little chance pof change in Texas or Georgia Looks as if Florida and Airzona have been held, South Carolina probably as well. All on Michigan, Pennsylvannia and Wisconsin. Suspect they will just go Democrat, that is what 44 votes added to Clintons 227, makes 271, OUch. probably the Maine District and maybe one from Nebraska 2 District, ie 272 or 273. Trump will go to the Supreme Court, they'll find a reason to block the result. Congress and Senat may try to block him. They will be suspended, Trump will remain Prtesident, the Opposition will be locked up and freedom extinguished. If I was black I would cross the bordser to Canada. The future looks neither red or blue, just a mess. Air Force and Armed Forces moved from Europe, how could we stop the Russians oh it just goes on and on.
I think most of your analysis on the states there is right though you mention South Carolina (which is safe Trump already). I#m assuming you meant North (which is very close). I actually think Biden will win one of NC or AZ but not both, though AZ does seem to be moving back a bit to Trump I agree. Other than that I think your assessment is about right, except I don't think Trump will hang on whatever shenaingans he gets up to. though with the rhetoric he's spouting I guess nothing is impossible. A very bumpy road ahead I feel for the US.
As I and many others said on every other occasion he has come back, "he's a busted flush... nobody cares any more".
One day, we'll be right. Maybe.
There is clearly a growing space for an anti-lockdown policy. Whether it needs to be a separate party is moot, but it looks that way at the moment.
Whether such a move has any longevity is anyone's guess. If a suitable vaccine is available by spring with a roll out to enough people to stop a fourth lockdown next October then there will no long term mileage in Farage reopening his party for this.
edit: we could see a signficant anti-lockdown protest vote at May's elections - if they happen.
Given his lockdown decision is on a nonsensical level with hanging monkeys as spies you may be right.
Monkeys as spies? I missed that one!
Hartlepool hung a monkey around the time of Waterloo for being a French spy
40 or so years apparently (I never tried) one could start a fight in a Hartlepool pub by asking the apparently simple question 'Who hanged the monkey?'
They seem to have to come to terms with the folklore now, though. The story was that an ape swam a shore from a wrecked ship which had been carrying a circus and the locals thought it was Frenchman, never having seen either an ape or a Frenchman before.
Are people (and related species) from Hartlepool called Hartlepuddlians? Or maybe Hartlepolitans?
That's a weird thing to say. So-called "Liberals" like Trudeau have shown what side of the fence they are on. Biden Kamala would likely side with Trudeau, not Macron.
Macron is showing other Western leaders *precisely* how you crush populism from the centre.
...But none of the other Western leaders are classical liberals; they are various shades of progressives, who do not believe in liberalism. Ironically Trump is the closest of all the candidates in the US election to a classical liberal, that's why Macron doesn't get on that badly with him.
There's a really good question here: how does the US get unfucked (politically)?
Generally this kind of thing happens gradually. There's a lot of attention on voter suppression and legal ratfuckery in this cycle, but that's not because it's new, it's mainly because Trump says the quiet part out loud. Voting access is gradually getting better, and what used to be shockingly bad voting machines and audit trails are getting gradually better.
Trump loses, judges who were appointed for their hackishness at that precise moment get more into the whole judge thing and less into the hack thing, others retire and get replaced, Dems add some new states, EC-related demographic trends come and go. Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried.
Currently Trumpism appears nasty and dangerous but also *powerful*. If Trump loses comprehensively it will look increasingly *ridiculous*, as Brexit already does. The GOP will still have a Trumpist element but for all its faults the US system can correct very quickly; You're only a single primary from a quite different GOP - or rather, the same GOP, but with different strains in the ascendant.
"Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried."
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
I didn't say it had gone for good, it's always been there and it comes and goes. However I think you'd better predict which it will do based on the correlation "length of time since last time it was tried, and intensity with which you tried it" than based on "economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration".
Populism never "works" because it proposes simple solutions to complex problems. However, voters vote them in when they're talking about the complex problems that other moderate politicians are ignoring.
So, the correct response is to both give them enough rope *and* to then park your tanks on their lawn.
Far too many seem to think the answer is just the former.
People switch to populists when they see the existing elites as self-serving (and let's face it, many Western elites are).
The real problem is Johnson has now bet the whole house on getting the pandemic under control while keeping schools open, and he has pretty well trashed the whole economy to do so.
Which may be acceptable to everyone, given how important education is - if it is possible.
If we get to the 22nd November and there’s only a limited effect, what does he do then? Does he accept he’s failed, and shut schools early? What about unis? Does he order students to stay in halls over Christmas? If so, expect actual riots. If not, there seems a risk of a massive spike in infections as they go home and spread it all round the country. When do they return? Do they return?
I worry that by delaying two weeks he has made bad choices into disastrous ones. It seems very possible we will two months from now have a pandemic that shows no signs of abating and a trashed economy.
Good post.
'Dither and Delay' - this government's 'Strong and Stable'.
As I and many others said on every other occasion he has come back, "he's a busted flush... nobody cares any more".
One day, we'll be right. Maybe.
We were right last December. Nobody cared about him anymore, he pulled his candidates from the Tory seats not to help the Tories but because he was a busted flush already.
There's a really good question here: how does the US get unfucked (politically)?
Generally this kind of thing happens gradually. There's a lot of attention on voter suppression and legal ratfuckery in this cycle, but that's not because it's new, it's mainly because Trump says the quiet part out loud. Voting access is gradually getting better, and what used to be shockingly bad voting machines and audit trails are getting gradually better.
Trump loses, judges who were appointed for their hackishness at that precise moment get more into the whole judge thing and less into the hack thing, others retire and get replaced, Dems add some new states, EC-related demographic trends come and go. Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried.
Currently Trumpism appears nasty and dangerous but also *powerful*. If Trump loses comprehensively it will look increasingly *ridiculous*, as Brexit already does. The GOP will still have a Trumpist element but for all its faults the US system can correct very quickly; You're only a single primary from a quite different GOP - or rather, the same GOP, but with different strains in the ascendant.
"Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried."
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
Yes, simplistic solutions to complex problems tend to be a vote winner. The problem with Populism is in government, not opposition.
It can be done. Blair killed it on asylum in the early noughties (note: not on large-scale legal migration, but he did on asylum & it bought him a few years) and Macron is doing it on Islamism now. Also, see Denmark and Austria on co-opting. The EU has also become more hawkish in general.
Also, the beloved of the Left - Jacinda Ardern - originally got in with NZ First on a pledge to cut numbers. I think some people are missing how the centrists got back in/stayed in by pulling these populist rugs away.
Incidentally, for amusement/tragedy (depending on your point of view) had Blair/Brown held a referendum on the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty in the 2005-2008 period and then formalised UK status in the EU after along the lines of what later became Cameron's Bloomberg speech then Brexit would never have happened.
The Scottish Nationalist challenge is an interesting one. I still don't think either Labour or Conservative have found a solution to that and are still clueless.
Belgium 1,002 deaths/1m on worldometer, joining Peru and San Marino.
I’m glad I read that twice. I was appalled at San Marino’s death rate until I realised the figure was per capita.
Does anyone know why Belgium is doing so badly? Heck, they’re even doing worse than we are and that must take some effort.
I'm not sure they're doing enough testing - the positivity rate in Liege is 41% - across England its 6-7%, with "hot spots" in the teens.
what exactly is testing achieving? Hospitalisations and death I get to some extent although deaths are being inflated due to the dying with covid not of it , however testing generally is achieving nothing in controlling the illlness is it?
If its leading to isolation and contact tracing then it may be helping to slow the spread - especially if its picking up asymptomatic carriers via contacts. Guernsey now has 10 known cases - all in quarantine, all identified via test, track & trace, except for the initial case (which is a worry).
I understand that the 10 cases were related on one individual who came back from the mainland having tested positive, and then visited her (I think) relations on the Island before the end of the quarantine period.
Given there will be more cows than people there it is absolutely useless as a measure for countries.
Out by a factor of over 20 (what is it with Nats & Numbers?)
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
The entire population is a little bigger than Ayr , a small town. It is an island, a tiny one. It bears no resemblance to a country with borders, large cities or airports etc and so cannot be used in any way as a comparison.
And yet its followed the same strategies as other, much larger, countries which have also proved successful. New Zealand big enough for you?
There's a really good question here: how does the US get unfucked (politically)?
Generally this kind of thing happens gradually. There's a lot of attention on voter suppression and legal ratfuckery in this cycle, but that's not because it's new, it's mainly because Trump says the quiet part out loud. Voting access is gradually getting better, and what used to be shockingly bad voting machines and audit trails are getting gradually better.
Trump loses, judges who were appointed for their hackishness at that precise moment get more into the whole judge thing and less into the hack thing, others retire and get replaced, Dems add some new states, EC-related demographic trends come and go. Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried.
Currently Trumpism appears nasty and dangerous but also *powerful*. If Trump loses comprehensively it will look increasingly *ridiculous*, as Brexit already does. The GOP will still have a Trumpist element but for all its faults the US system can correct very quickly; You're only a single primary from a quite different GOP - or rather, the same GOP, but with different strains in the ascendant.
"Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried."
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
I didn't say it had gone for good, it's always been there and it comes and goes. However I think you'd better predict which it will do based on the correlation "length of time since last time it was tried, and intensity with which you tried it" than based on "economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration".
Populism never "works" because it proposes simple solutions to complex problems. However, voters vote them in when they're talking about the complex problems that other moderate politicians are ignoring.
So, the correct response is to both give them enough rope *and* to then park your tanks on their lawn.
Far too many seem to think the answer is just the former.
People switch to populists when they see the existing elites as self-serving (and let's face it, many Western elites are).
And, they then patronise or insult voters who share those concerns on top (bigots, racists, idiots etc.) which makes some want to burn their house down.
The real problem is Johnson has now bet the whole house on getting the pandemic under control while keeping schools open, and he has pretty well trashed the whole economy to do so.
Which may be acceptable to everyone, given how important education is - if it is possible.
If we get to the 22nd November and there’s only a limited effect, what does he do then? Does he accept he’s failed, and shut schools early? What about unis? Does he order students to stay in halls over Christmas? If so, expect actual riots. If not, there seems a risk of a massive spike in infections as they go home and spread it all round the country. When do they return? Do they return?
I worry that by delaying two weeks he has made bad choices into disastrous ones. It seems very possible we will two months from now have a pandemic that shows no signs of abating and a trashed economy.
Unless and until we have a vaccine we will still have a pandemic that showns no signs of abating and a trashed economy, or you take a Swedish or US red state or Brazilian approach and prioritise the economy at risk of even higher deaths. Beyond that a mixture of track and trace, social distancing and masks and circuit breaker lockdowns is all you can do.
Otherwise what day you impose a lockdown is really mainly just noise
Those look about right to me though I'd have Ohio and Iowa a bit more in the red column (FL too) as to where we are. I think MI and WI are out of reach for Trump, PA just in reach. The problem Trump has is he pretty much needs to hold all the others on that list he won. Possible of course but unlikely. I can see him holding most but feel one or two will flip out of NC, AZ and GA most likely.
There's a really good question here: how does the US get unfucked (politically)?
Generally this kind of thing happens gradually. There's a lot of attention on voter suppression and legal ratfuckery in this cycle, but that's not because it's new, it's mainly because Trump says the quiet part out loud. Voting access is gradually getting better, and what used to be shockingly bad voting machines and audit trails are getting gradually better.
Trump loses, judges who were appointed for their hackishness at that precise moment get more into the whole judge thing and less into the hack thing, others retire and get replaced, Dems add some new states, EC-related demographic trends come and go. Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried.
Currently Trumpism appears nasty and dangerous but also *powerful*. If Trump loses comprehensively it will look increasingly *ridiculous*, as Brexit already does. The GOP will still have a Trumpist element but for all its faults the US system can correct very quickly; You're only a single primary from a quite different GOP - or rather, the same GOP, but with different strains in the ascendant.
"Populism seems to be in decline everywhere, its appeal is mostly proportional to the length of time since it was last tried."
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
Well, under this current populist government we are getting economic stagnation and intergenerational inequality. Plus their immigration policy is to let in people from all around the world and keep out Europeans.
I see Trump winning enough of the tight races to stay in the fight and the courts getting him over the line.
When I’m told that the US and the UK share a common set of values, it scares the life out of me. But there is no doubt that people such as Johnson, Patel, Gove and Cummings look at how the GOP’s highly effective hollowing out of American democracy has been largely facilitated by partisan judges and like what they see. Hence the Tory plans to hobble the independent judiciary here.
Yawn, typical Don Brind stuff from you with the Lefty herd all "liking" it.
Give it a rest.
Sunday just ain’t Sunday until CR picks a fight with SO.
I'm not picking a fight with him. I actually really like SO, and he's one of my favourite posters - or used to be.
It's just now he comes in from time to time, does nothing more than drop his hyperbolic political propaganda, and then leaves.
As I and many others said on every other occasion he has come back, "he's a busted flush... nobody cares any more".
One day, we'll be right. Maybe.
The last thing we need is Trump's tapeworm back over here cheering on the fascists and jackboots brigade, but I guess it is all part of the decline of Britain.
It’s not succeeding anywhere seems a very poor get out when the UK is already so far above other European countries for deaths.
Trying to explain away our own failures which are clear is what makes me very cynical that some are just interested in the political side for the Tory Party. And yet they accuse me of playing politics.
Even I'm finding the Spitfire/1940 worship remarkably tedious and facile now.
Indeed. It was 80 years ago. When I was a schoolkid it was living memory, many of my friends' fathers served and mine had his house bombed. But 80 years previously? We certainly didn't fetishise the Boer War. It's time we moved on.
Been reading elsewhere on the interwebs about this poll, it is a very very respected pollster but somethings in the poll are quite surprising. IA1 shows trump winning by 15 but Clinton won by 5 and there is a massive swing with independents from last poll.
Obviously a poll for those expecting it going for a Trump win to shout about, but the above makes me feel it's an outlier.
It's generally not good to ignore polls because you can find something weird in the subsamples, because you can nearly always find something weird in the subsamples.
I think this is a legitimately pro-Trump data point, but the fact that we're talking about a poll in a state Biden doesn't need shows how few pro-Trump data points there are right now.
Oh I don't ignore outliers, but I do treat them as outliers. When one pops up I like to delve deeper into why so if another poll(s) moves that way I can see if it's good the same reason. However until then it's still an outlier.
With this poll not much opportunity to do that as it's so late, not sure any more are expected for Iowa so compare it to the result.
Comments
*the joke was that no one goes to Belgium for a holiday, just to get somewhere else. My brother and I were however on the finest MZ motorcycles that you could buy for the price of a pint. We didn't want to go too far on those tyres and brakes...
The party wouldn't be in such a mess had it not spent so much time trying to politically point score off this pandemic.
Also population density is around 3 times Belgium's so we must be doing something right.
It's not difficult. The virus doesn't "blow on the wind" - it moves with people. So control the movement of people, control the virus. Something the UK has failed to do, but successful countries like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Japan & South Korea (and Guernsey) have all done.
Which is at odds with the poll itself. As in 2016 their LV sample was drawn from 75% of the RV sample. In 2020 it is drawn from 85% of the RV sample.
So on that basis you would assume they were predicting higher turnout - but based on their Early Voter percentage that imply lower turnout that 2016.
And perhaps not even that, as proving intent in his later years would have been ... problematic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Surprise_conspiracy_theory
He's shown you can purge extremism from a party, although it is harder in a federalised system.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322758350749184000?s=20
It's pretty sick when you hear Republicans stating that Barratt was "an excellent candidate" and there was absolutely no justification for not seating her on the Supreme Court (implication - Democrats just playing party games).
When the Republicans spent several years block each and every Obama nominee to courts at every level, for no other reason than they were Obama nominees.
The last minute decision to switch Minnesota's deadline was bad but trying quite literally to get over 100,000 heavily Democrat votes thrown in the bin is on another planet
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322559026110976000?s=20
A typical liberal globalist response which views it as an aberration. It's just as I predicted: those that say this have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
You will get populism again (be it of the far-left or far-right variety) unless mainstream parties address the root concerns that drive it - namely, concerns about economic stagnation, intergenerational inequality and mass migration.
Give it a rest.
Now giving odds in two dice terms
2 (1/36) Trump wins, catastrophic polling failure.
3 (2/36) Trump and corrupt judges steal the election from Biden.
4+ (33/36) Biden wins
Noone is using the mail in PA, it's all dropboxes
IF Biden wins and IF that win is a Reagan like landslide and IF the mid terms go badly for the GOP then I can see a non-Trumpite getting the nomination. But it would have to be all those 3 things happening and the mid terms are going to go great for the GOP.
Due to Johnson’s dither and delay we’re going to lockdown longer. I don’t think one month will be enough at this stage.
It was nice of the Tories to completely destroy the Captain Hindsight attacks they came up with, I wonder if they’re throwing the next election on purpose.
It must really p1ss the Germans off to be the ones lumbered with the "no sense of humour" reputation.
Appreciating the Barrett, while probably mad as a box of frogs, is obviously a far smarter lawyer than Kavanaugh, and unquestionably better able to present as human, they attacked the process rather than her.
Air Force and Armed Forces moved from Europe, how could we stop the Russians oh it just goes on and on.
National Biden +7.8%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
Florida Biden +1.2%
Pennsylvania Biden +4.1%
Michigan Biden +7.3%
Wisconsin Biden +5.7%
North Carolina Biden +2.1%
Arizona Biden +0.1%
Ohio Tie
Georgia Biden +0.8%
Texas Trump 2.3%
Iowa Trump +0.6%
Minnesota Biden +4.7%
Nevada Biden +4%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_biden-6765.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_biden-6974.htmlcom/epolls/2020/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_biden-6966.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_biden-6867.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html
One day, we'll be right. Maybe.
https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1322347582660771841
Ignore that it’s about Covid and note how it shows a government ruling by decree and avoiding any form of detailed scrutiny.
So, the correct response is to both give them enough rope *and* to then park your tanks on their lawn.
Far too many seem to think the answer is just the former.
There was a marginal improvement last week but capacity is growing to keep track with increasing cases. If cases fall then test and trace should automatically improve. If capacity continues to improve while cases fall then there should be a marked improvement in test and trace.
Which may be acceptable to everyone, given how important education is - if it is possible.
If we get to the 22nd November and there’s only a limited effect, what does he do then? Does he accept he’s failed, and shut schools early? What about unis? Does he order students to stay in halls over Christmas? If so, expect actual riots. If not, there seems a risk of a massive spike in infections as they go home and spread it all round the country. When do they return? Do they return?
I worry that by delaying two weeks he has made bad choices into disastrous ones. It seems very possible we will two months from now have a pandemic that shows no signs of abating and a trashed economy.
Whether such a move has any longevity is anyone's guess. If a suitable vaccine is available by spring with a roll out to enough people to stop a fourth lockdown next October then there will no long term mileage in Farage reopening his party for this.
edit: we could see a signficant anti-lockdown protest vote at May's elections - if they happen.
'Dither and Delay' - this government's 'Strong and Stable'.
Also, the beloved of the Left - Jacinda Ardern - originally got in with NZ First on a pledge to cut numbers. I think some people are missing how the centrists got back in/stayed in by pulling these populist rugs away.
Incidentally, for amusement/tragedy (depending on your point of view) had Blair/Brown held a referendum on the EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty in the 2005-2008 period and then formalised UK status in the EU after along the lines of what later became Cameron's Bloomberg speech then Brexit would never have happened.
The Scottish Nationalist challenge is an interesting one. I still don't think either Labour or Conservative have found a solution to that and are still clueless.
Otherwise what day you impose a lockdown is really mainly just noise
It's just now he comes in from time to time, does nothing more than drop his hyperbolic political propaganda, and then leaves.
His Twitter fan club has gone to his head.
Trying to explain away our own failures which are clear is what makes me very cynical that some are just interested in the political side for the Tory Party. And yet they accuse me of playing politics.
If Trump wins you could probably retitle it 'The Decline and Fall of American Democracy'
With this poll not much opportunity to do that as it's so late, not sure any more are expected for Iowa so compare it to the result.