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Bloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden – pol
Bloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden – politicalbetting.com
The Texas Tribune report above features the latest move by multi-billionaire and former White House contender, Michael Bloomberg, to help Joe Biden take Texas (38 ECVs) and Ohio (18 ECVs).
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And re. Mike's last thread, I too thought Joe Biden was a far from ideal nomination. As it turns out, not only has he done relatively really well he has also, I think, turned out to be a near-ideal candidate during this national and global crisis. He may be old but he's a safe pair of hands. He's risk free. And he's almost certainly only for 4 years. All of which presents a perfect antidote to Donald Trump's narcissistic, inept and disordered Presidency.
The odds on Biden remain attractive because too many punters still believe in some magic dust from 2016.
Biden is also keeping his nose in front in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida (apart from the Susquehanna Centre for American Greatness poll of 400 sample size)
The latest national poll appears to be Emerson with Biden +5. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out
At Senate level there were some good polls for Cunningham against Tillis in North Carolina and Ossof against Perdue in Georgia. I've got bets on both of those two Senate races as Democrat takes. Kelly looks good in Arizona and Peters in Michigan. I'd like to see the latest on Bollier in Kansas where, allegedly, internal polling shows it neck and neck.
Looking at where the campaigns are now running this is into potential landslide territory. Betting on the Electoral College share is slightly more fraught than the two horse races because narrow margins in one state can (obviously) make a massive difference but I'm covered on some good bets at Biden in the 300's, even up to 420. The odds are attractive but the EV bands relatively narrow. If you're confident, as I am, that Biden will be well over 300 then you can cover yourself for the likeliest eventualities and still come out a winner.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#
The polling is confused. One had Marshall ahead +4 and the other Bollier up 2 but neither were impartially sourced. You can get 11/5 on Bollier at Betfair and it's an outside bet than might be worth those odds. Her fund raising in the past week has exceeded that of Marshall. I'm on her.
https://www.kmbc.com/article/democrat-barbara-bollier-raises-dollar43m-more-than-republican-roger-marshall-in-kansas-senate-bid-dollar25m-total/34484032#
Head-to-head comparison of SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detecting rapid test with self-collected anterior nasal swab versus professional-collected nasopharyngeal swab
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.26.20219600v1
... Results: Among the 289 participants, 39 (13.5%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. The positive percent agreement of the two different sampling techniques for the Ag-RDT was 90.6% (CI 75.8-96.8). The negative percent agreement was 99.2% (CI 97.2-99.8). The Ag-RDT with AN sampling showed a sensitivity of 74.4% (29/39 PCR positives detected; CI 58.9-85.4) and specificity of 99.2% (CI 97.1-99.8) compared to RT-PCR. The sensitivity with NP sampling was 79.5% (31/39 PCR positives detected; CI 64.5-89.2) and specificity was 99.6% (CI 97.8-100). In patients with high viral load (>7.0 log10 RNA SARS-CoV2/swab), the sensitivity of the Ag-RDT with AN sampling was 96% and 100% with NP sampling. Conclusion: Supervised self-sampling from the anterior nose is a reliable alternative to professional nasopharyngeal sampling using a WHO-listed SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT. Considering the ease-of-use of Ag-RDTs, self-sampling and potentially patient self-testing at home may be a future use case....
This is eye catching to say the least.
States that require mail-in ballots to be returned by the Election Day, Kavanaugh wrote in his concurring opinion, "want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of impropriety that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in after Election Day and potentially flip the results of an election."
A jurist on the highest court in the land arguing against counting ballots after midnight because they may 'flip the result'. How do these people get anywhere in life?!
A reminder of course that the Arizona senate race was not settled for a couple of days in 2018. Nobody flipped the result, they just counted the ballots properly.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/hunter-biden-the-wall-street-journal-and-the-decline-of-media-gatekeepers
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-tony-bobulinski-joe-biden-unanswered-questions
https://twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1321321745886961664?s=19
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912?s=19
Thought I'd do a spreadsheet comparing the latest 538 projections with the 2016 election result for each state.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DMLMGjv6z3fgJ41auwoomcGzg_pabwSQjIsfpI6wnqc/edit#gid=0
This is betting gold.
Betting PostF1: backed Perez on Ladbrokes' title winner without Hamilton, Bottas, or Verstappen market.
He's 3.5 (3.6 with boost) versus 2.87 for Ricciardo and 3.25 for Leclerc.
But Perez missed two races due to COVID. His points per race tally is higher. If the average is maintained then it should be close to a dead heat between him and Ricciardo. I think Perez should be marginal favourite rather than third.
"Our trade deal with Japan will make it cheaper"
"But its 0% tariff now and will be 0% tariff then, how is that cheaper?"
"Because the WTO tariff is 6% so our new trade deal makes it cheaper"
"But we aren't on WTO terms we're on EU terms which is 0%"
"BLUE PASSPORTS"
People casting their vote against Trump don’t need to wait. And they are hearing the message loud and clear to return their votes ASAP because of the threat of disenfranchisement. But on the Republican side, maybe not so much? After all there aren’t Democrat lawyers out there arguing to disallow late cast votes. So as a result of all the court cases it will only be Democrat votes that will be discounted, right?
This misreads what's happening: a serious malaise amongst a few people who are still stuck in 2016 normalcy bias. A spreadsheet is a waste of time if the input data is completely wrong. I don't know how many times this bears repeating but it needs to be: this is NOT 2016.
The point about Wisconsin is the point about both candidates' final week schedules recently released: neither of them is scheduling to campaign in a single state that Trump lost in 2016. In other words, Trump is on the defence and Biden is on the offence.
You have to read the actual signs now.
And a Good Morning to all. Looks a bit more promising here, weather-wise, after the misery of yesterday.
Regardless of whatever deals we sign with Kazakhstan, we are likely to still pay tariffs on it as it will be imported from the EU and not from Kazakhstan direct.
Still find it hard to believe that Texas could be flipped though.
*other more Covid-secure supermarkets are available
Agree about the turkey farmers though. Some will have their families regardless but we are more of a law abiding bunch than we are sometimes given credit for, the one's not complying make a lot more noise. A lot of fattened turkeys are going to last a bit longer than normal.
Reminds me of the brilliant Hamlet advert where the turkey is pretty cheerful and then sees a snowflake...
*I for one intend to be a good friend to Scotch Whisky and interesting ale producers this winter
I don't think the conditions are anything like the same, not least because pollsters usually learn rather than doubling the error, but if it does happen then everyone will be saying it was obvious in hindsight and asking how the Dems could make the same mistakes again...
Oh, you're being sarcastic again.
"It could be that severe viral illness routinely results in the production of autoantibodies with little consequence; this could just be the first time we’re seeing it. We also don’t know how long the autoantibodies last. Our data suggest that they are relatively stable over a few weeks. But, we need follow-up studies to understand if they are persisting routinely beyond infection recovery.
Importantly, we believe that the autoreactive responses we have identified here are specific to the SARS-CoV-2 infection – there is no reason to believe that similar results would be expected through vaccination against the virus."
I cannot get my head round that second paragraph.Para 1: we have no idea whether this is a Sars thing or an every viral infection there ever was thing, para 2: but we are confident on the basis of absence of evidence not evidence of absence, that it is a Sars thing but not a Sars vaccine thing, no sirree.
Of the disparity between the probability implied by the polls versus the odds it it is interesting to hear that one of the experts thinks that the disparity may remain because small-bet amateur money will keep coming for Trump whereas Shadsy is expecting Biden`s price to fall when the big money comes for him. Shadsy reported a £500k single bet on Biden two days ago.
It may be a short life but at least I am doing a little to keep my Christmas dinner meanwhile entertained.
Edit - and useful, too. They clear up messes nobody else will touch.
But who would expect a Department of International Trade to be up to speed with trivia like that? Do they think Fosters comes from Australia?
Shropshire has given out £50,000 – the highest total donated by the seven local authorities that have paid out.
Critics said it was outrageous that hard-working taxpayers should be subsidising hunts.
At the peak in April we had about 230 covid patients in my Trust, with 55 on ICU. It was down to 60 by June, and as well documented rather persistent in Leicester, finally dropping to 8 in late August with none on ICU.
We are back above 100 again, with 17 admissions yesterday. Only 8 on ICU I think, but the trend is concerning. We had 58 inpatients a week ago. The Trust has raised the covid alert to 3 (out of 5), but not yet cancelling admissions.
There isn't the air of panic of March/April, and we have much better stocks, treatments and plans, but November looks to be an awful month. Diwali is usually an autumn highlight, a lovely positive autumn event with lots of family mixing, but going to be mid peak this year.
https://twitter.com/PaulbernalUK/status/1321341731523186688?s=20
Not least in Dundee: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-54694108
Central Scotland have been on a fairly severe lockdown for 3 weeks already and counting. Its not working. I think its pretty obvious that the return of students to Universities and schools have more than offset every other measure. Like Boris Sturgeon is currently committed to keeping the schools open if at all possible. I am increasingly concerned it may not be.
We had a virtual parents night for my son last night. His school is clearly working to be ready for returning to distance learning again, if required. I fear it will be with horrendous implications for the education of kids at schools not so well prepared.
I am not sure whether that was a wise leader taking sensible precautions or a grim foreboding.
Of course, it may simply be that they feared more staff would have to self isolate.
Reading the polls overall Trump appears to be edging closer, of course he can lose, what by five milliuon and still get in. Crazy.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1321363146351796224?s=20
If we normally share a turkey with another household, but this year the two households eat separately and both want a turkey for tradition's sake, then that's a lot more turkey.
Here in Edinburgh cases are coming down at a pleasing clip. After the student spike it seems Edinburgers have kept themselves to themselves.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-staffordshire-to-move-into-tier-2-covid-19-restrictions-as-soon-as-this-weekend-12116301
Cannock is apparently the worst hotspot, which I will admit surprises me somewhat.
I would quite look forward to cooking a goose. I’ve got an amazing recipe for goose, stuffing, goose fat roast potatoes and red cabbage I want to try.
I was chatting to one of my orthopedic colleagues last week, who is struggling to get either theatre time at the private hospital for hip replacements. He has over 30 waiting, and no slots left this year. The Covid PPE precautions etc really slow stuff down, and while surgeons are champing at the bit, anaesthetists (who also run ICU) and theatre staff are looking very strained.
Covid precautions cannot be ignored. We have had several ward outbreaks, despite all admissions being screened.
So the situation in the Private sector isn't looking great either, but may vary with local disease patterns and capacity.
Of the total of 9,153 cases in Lothian 1219 are in the last 7 days with over 200 yesterday.
End of birthright citizenship ?
https://twitter.com/Haleaziz/status/1310983880187412480
Exposes Coronavirus Corruption at the Heart of Government
https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1320984514634649601
Does anyone else have this problem?