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Bloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden – pol

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited October 2020 in General
imageBloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden – politicalbetting.com

The Texas Tribune report above features the latest move by multi-billionaire and former White House contender, Michael Bloomberg, to help Joe Biden take Texas (38 ECVs) and Ohio (18 ECVs).

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    quiet tonight ...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TimT said:

    quiet tonight ...

    Unlike next week at this time!
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667
    I thought young HY would have been here by now. Surely both of these states are in the bag for Trump? Is there no polling from Trafalgar that he can re-post?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Interesting about Texas and Ohio.

    And re. Mike's last thread, I too thought Joe Biden was a far from ideal nomination. As it turns out, not only has he done relatively really well he has also, I think, turned out to be a near-ideal candidate during this national and global crisis. He may be old but he's a safe pair of hands. He's risk free. And he's almost certainly only for 4 years. All of which presents a perfect antidote to Donald Trump's narcissistic, inept and disordered Presidency.

    The odds on Biden remain attractive because too many punters still believe in some magic dust from 2016.
  • $15 million = small potatoes now in the overall scheme of things. I seem to recall Bloomberg having promised earlier in the POTUS campaign that he intended to donate hundreds of millions of dollars whether he himself was chosen as the Democratic nominee, or to the campaign of whoever else got the gig.
  • Interesting about Texas and Ohio.

    And re. Mike's last thread, I too thought Joe Biden was a far from ideal nomination. As it turns out, not only has he done relatively really well he has also, I think, turned out to be a near-ideal candidate during this national and global crisis. He may be old but he's a safe pair of hands. He's risk free. And he's almost certainly only for 4 years. All of which presents a perfect antidote to Donald Trump's narcissistic, inept and disordered Presidency.

    The odds on Biden remain attractive because too many punters still believe in some magic dust from 2016.

    Interesting about Texas and Ohio.

    And re. Mike's last thread, I too thought Joe Biden was a far from ideal nomination. As it turns out, not only has he done relatively really well he has also, I think, turned out to be a near-ideal candidate during this national and global crisis. He may be old but he's a safe pair of hands. He's risk free. And he's almost certainly only for 4 years. All of which presents a perfect antidote to Donald Trump's narcissistic, inept and disordered Presidency.

    The odds on Biden remain attractive because too many punters still believe in some magic dust from 2016.

    "A safe pair of hands"? Not exactly the words I would choose based on the evidence of the last 7 days one way or another.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Just catching up with the latest polling and that's a very good day for Biden and the Dems. Some states look pretty certain for them now: Pennsylvania, Michigan & probably also Arizona, Nevada, Iowa.

    Biden is also keeping his nose in front in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida (apart from the Susquehanna Centre for American Greatness poll of 400 sample size)

    The latest national poll appears to be Emerson with Biden +5. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out

    At Senate level there were some good polls for Cunningham against Tillis in North Carolina and Ossof against Perdue in Georgia. I've got bets on both of those two Senate races as Democrat takes. Kelly looks good in Arizona and Peters in Michigan. I'd like to see the latest on Bollier in Kansas where, allegedly, internal polling shows it neck and neck.

    Looking at where the campaigns are now running this is into potential landslide territory. Betting on the Electoral College share is slightly more fraught than the two horse races because narrow margins in one state can (obviously) make a massive difference but I'm covered on some good bets at Biden in the 300's, even up to 420. The odds are attractive but the EV bands relatively narrow. If you're confident, as I am, that Biden will be well over 300 then you can cover yourself for the likeliest eventualities and still come out a winner.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    If, like me, you think you can feel the direction this wind is blowing then Kansas Senate race is an outside bet if you want a flutter at better odds than many other races. Barbara Bollier is a former Republican and she is working her socks off to split the Kansas ticket.

    The polling is confused. One had Marshall ahead +4 and the other Bollier up 2 but neither were impartially sourced. You can get 11/5 on Bollier at Betfair and it's an outside bet than might be worth those odds. Her fund raising in the past week has exceeded that of Marshall. I'm on her.

    https://www.kmbc.com/article/democrat-barbara-bollier-raises-dollar43m-more-than-republican-roger-marshall-in-kansas-senate-bid-dollar25m-total/34484032#
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    These figures for commercial rapid antigen tests on sensitivity and specificity would be good enough for real world mass testing. Well under 1% false positives, and good sensitivity.

    Head-to-head comparison of SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detecting rapid test with self-collected anterior nasal swab versus professional-collected nasopharyngeal swab
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.26.20219600v1
    ... Results: Among the 289 participants, 39 (13.5%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. The positive percent agreement of the two different sampling techniques for the Ag-RDT was 90.6% (CI 75.8-96.8). The negative percent agreement was 99.2% (CI 97.2-99.8). The Ag-RDT with AN sampling showed a sensitivity of 74.4% (29/39 PCR positives detected; CI 58.9-85.4) and specificity of 99.2% (CI 97.1-99.8) compared to RT-PCR. The sensitivity with NP sampling was 79.5% (31/39 PCR positives detected; CI 64.5-89.2) and specificity was 99.6% (CI 97.8-100). In patients with high viral load (>7.0 log10 RNA SARS-CoV2/swab), the sensitivity of the Ag-RDT with AN sampling was 96% and 100% with NP sampling. Conclusion: Supervised self-sampling from the anterior nose is a reliable alternative to professional nasopharyngeal sampling using a WHO-listed SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT. Considering the ease-of-use of Ag-RDTs, self-sampling and potentially patient self-testing at home may be a future use case....
  • https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/27/politics/kavanaugh-supreme-court-trump-biden/index.html

    This is eye catching to say the least.

    States that require mail-in ballots to be returned by the Election Day, Kavanaugh wrote in his concurring opinion, "want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of impropriety that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in after Election Day and potentially flip the results of an election."

    A jurist on the highest court in the land arguing against counting ballots after midnight because they may 'flip the result'. How do these people get anywhere in life?!

    A reminder of course that the Arizona senate race was not settled for a couple of days in 2018. Nobody flipped the result, they just counted the ballots properly.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I see that outside of their hyper partisan elements, even Fox News have given up on the Hunter Biden email story as a crock of sh*te, even writing pieces undermining its own presenters.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/hunter-biden-the-wall-street-journal-and-the-decline-of-media-gatekeepers

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-tony-bobulinski-joe-biden-unanswered-questions
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Nigelb said:
    This has been broadly suspected for some time.

    Just catching up with the latest polling and that's a very good day for Biden and the Dems. Some states look pretty certain for them now: Pennsylvania, Michigan & probably also Arizona, Nevada, Iowa.

    Biden is also keeping his nose in front in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida (apart from the Susquehanna Centre for American Greatness poll of 400 sample size)

    The latest national poll appears to be Emerson with Biden +5. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out

    At Senate level there were some good polls for Cunningham against Tillis in North Carolina and Ossof against Perdue in Georgia. I've got bets on both of those two Senate races as Democrat takes. Kelly looks good in Arizona and Peters in Michigan. I'd like to see the latest on Bollier in Kansas where, allegedly, internal polling shows it neck and neck.

    Looking at where the campaigns are now running this is into potential landslide territory. Betting on the Electoral College share is slightly more fraught than the two horse races because narrow margins in one state can (obviously) make a massive difference but I'm covered on some good bets at Biden in the 300's, even up to 420. The odds are attractive but the EV bands relatively narrow. If you're confident, as I am, that Biden will be well over 300 then you can cover yourself for the likeliest eventualities and still come out a winner.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#

    With Liebermann down to 2-3% in the polls, Warnock also has an outside chance of winning the Georgia Special next week too.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:
    This has been broadly suspected for some time.

    Just catching up with the latest polling and that's a very good day for Biden and the Dems. Some states look pretty certain for them now: Pennsylvania, Michigan & probably also Arizona, Nevada, Iowa.

    Biden is also keeping his nose in front in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida (apart from the Susquehanna Centre for American Greatness poll of 400 sample size)

    The latest national poll appears to be Emerson with Biden +5. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-with-five-point-lead-one-week-out

    At Senate level there were some good polls for Cunningham against Tillis in North Carolina and Ossof against Perdue in Georgia. I've got bets on both of those two Senate races as Democrat takes. Kelly looks good in Arizona and Peters in Michigan. I'd like to see the latest on Bollier in Kansas where, allegedly, internal polling shows it neck and neck.

    Looking at where the campaigns are now running this is into potential landslide territory. Betting on the Electoral College share is slightly more fraught than the two horse races because narrow margins in one state can (obviously) make a massive difference but I'm covered on some good bets at Biden in the 300's, even up to 420. The odds are attractive but the EV bands relatively narrow. If you're confident, as I am, that Biden will be well over 300 then you can cover yourself for the likeliest eventualities and still come out a winner.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#

    With Liebermann down to 2-3% in the polls, Warnock also has an outside chance of winning the Georgia Special next week too.
    Good tip, Robert. Thank you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Omaha...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    Pulpstar said:

    Omaha...

    It all sounds a bit of a fiasco. Once he had his ego stroked, the Trump fans were left to hypothermia.

    https://twitter.com/PalmerReport/status/1321321745886961664?s=19
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Nigelb said:
    Given who can get a mail ballot in TX not sure this helps Trump
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    Given who can get a mail ballot in TX not sure this helps Trump
    Travis and Harris where this was intended to suppress have already got out the vote
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    It may be a bit late for Bloombergs spending in Tx.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912?s=19
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280
    FPT:

    Thought I'd do a spreadsheet comparing the latest 538 projections with the 2016 election result for each state.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DMLMGjv6z3fgJ41auwoomcGzg_pabwSQjIsfpI6wnqc/edit#gid=0
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    The fact that neither candidate has scheduled a stop over the final week in ANY of the states Trump lost in 2016 tells you a huge amount.

    This is betting gold.
  • What is fun about this election is that despite the clear despotism of the Trump administration people are happy to vote for him. If their man destroys the thing they are terrified the other side allegedly would ruin then that's ok
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:
    This has been broadly suspected for some time.
    There is a big step forward between "suspected for some time" and scientific studies confirming what was suspected.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Betting Post

    F1: backed Perez on Ladbrokes' title winner without Hamilton, Bottas, or Verstappen market.

    He's 3.5 (3.6 with boost) versus 2.87 for Ricciardo and 3.25 for Leclerc.

    But Perez missed two races due to COVID. His points per race tally is higher. If the average is maintained then it should be close to a dead heat between him and Ricciardo. I think Perez should be marginal favourite rather than third.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:
    This has been broadly suspected for some time.
    There is a big step forward between "suspected for some time" and scientific studies confirming what was suspected.
    I thought it was something known about since the Spring? One of the first things known about the virus was that it attacks the autoimmune system.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Foxy said:

    It may be a bit late for Bloombergs spending in Tx.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912?s=19

    Spanish language ads in the border market are good bang for buck here
  • Off topic but very funny. Last night's Department for International Trade twitter lunacy about how Brexit would reduce the price of Soy Sauce.
    "Our trade deal with Japan will make it cheaper"
    "But its 0% tariff now and will be 0% tariff then, how is that cheaper?"
    "Because the WTO tariff is 6% so our new trade deal makes it cheaper"
    "But we aren't on WTO terms we're on EU terms which is 0%"
    "BLUE PASSPORTS"
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    Given who can get a mail ballot in TX not sure this helps Trump
    Yes I was wondering if there was an argument (Hope! ;) ) that some of these Republican moves against late voters might actually be counterproductive (or at least not as important as they hope). For all the talk of the “enthusiasm gap” there must be a section of the ultimate Trump vote who will be be looking to cast their votes for partisan/anti Democrat reasons. And these people may currently be convincing themselves that they don’t want to cast their votes without being able to rationalise it internally. So they hold out in the hope that Biden will do or say something really stupid in the last few days to assuage their conscience about casting their ballot for Trump.

    People casting their vote against Trump don’t need to wait. And they are hearing the message loud and clear to return their votes ASAP because of the threat of disenfranchisement. But on the Republican side, maybe not so much? After all there aren’t Democrat lawyers out there arguing to disallow late cast votes. So as a result of all the court cases it will only be Democrat votes that will be discounted, right?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    Someone commented in the last thread as to why Trump was campaigning in Wisconsin, and didn't that mean if he wins there he wins the election.

    This misreads what's happening: a serious malaise amongst a few people who are still stuck in 2016 normalcy bias. A spreadsheet is a waste of time if the input data is completely wrong. I don't know how many times this bears repeating but it needs to be: this is NOT 2016.

    The point about Wisconsin is the point about both candidates' final week schedules recently released: neither of them is scheduling to campaign in a single state that Trump lost in 2016. In other words, Trump is on the defence and Biden is on the offence.

    You have to read the actual signs now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Given the apparent inaccuracy of some at least US Polls, I wonder if some campaign managers are are making 'Hilary's Mistake'.

    And a Good Morning to all. Looks a bit more promising here, weather-wise, after the misery of yesterday.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Off topic but very funny. Last night's Department for International Trade twitter lunacy about how Brexit would reduce the price of Soy Sauce.
    "Our trade deal with Japan will make it cheaper"
    "But its 0% tariff now and will be 0% tariff then, how is that cheaper?"
    "Because the WTO tariff is 6% so our new trade deal makes it cheaper"
    "But we aren't on WTO terms we're on EU terms which is 0%"
    "BLUE PASSPORTS"

    Don’t miss the added snippet that much (most?) of our imported Soy sauce apparently doesn’t come from Japan. It comes from Holland. But that’s ok because we will be trading with them on “Australia deal” terms...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    alex_ said:

    Off topic but very funny. Last night's Department for International Trade twitter lunacy about how Brexit would reduce the price of Soy Sauce.
    "Our trade deal with Japan will make it cheaper"
    "But its 0% tariff now and will be 0% tariff then, how is that cheaper?"
    "Because the WTO tariff is 6% so our new trade deal makes it cheaper"
    "But we aren't on WTO terms we're on EU terms which is 0%"
    "BLUE PASSPORTS"

    Don’t miss the added snippet that much (most?) of our imported Soy sauce apparently doesn’t come from Japan. It comes from Holland. But that’s ok because we will be trading with them on “Australia deal” terms...
    They are total imbeciles.
  • alex_ said:

    Off topic but very funny. Last night's Department for International Trade twitter lunacy about how Brexit would reduce the price of Soy Sauce.
    "Our trade deal with Japan will make it cheaper"
    "But its 0% tariff now and will be 0% tariff then, how is that cheaper?"
    "Because the WTO tariff is 6% so our new trade deal makes it cheaper"
    "But we aren't on WTO terms we're on EU terms which is 0%"
    "BLUE PASSPORTS"

    Don’t miss the added snippet that much (most?) of our imported Soy sauce apparently doesn’t come from Japan. It comes from Holland. But that’s ok because we will be trading with them on “Australia deal” terms...
    Yes, the route that so much global produce takes to reach the UK is something that so many people simply don't comprehend. If someone in Japan wants to export Soy Sauce to the UK, are they going to ship to us and only us? Or ship to everyone in Europe and split the orders at the destination?

    Regardless of whatever deals we sign with Kazakhstan, we are likely to still pay tariffs on it as it will be imported from the EU and not from Kazakhstan direct.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be a bit late for Bloombergs spending in Tx.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912?s=19

    Spanish language ads in the border market are good bang for buck here
    The key to this advertising is not those who have voted but those who are yet to vote. Turnout is key on both sides. Each camp normally struggles to get much more than 50% of their natural supporters to vote. The one who gets 60% wins. Latino participation is traditionally even worse than the abysmal average. If Bloomberg drives this up it could get interesting.

    Still find it hard to believe that Texas could be flipped though.
  • nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    If you were a turkey farmer you already have the turkeys. If the Asda* buyer slashes their order then the birds have to go somewhere - I'd expect a whole load of new Direct to Consumer sales at bargain prices which hopefully then in turn leaves the Asda buyer up shit creek.

    *other more Covid-secure supermarkets are available
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    I think this loss of immunity is grossly overstated, at least in the short to medium term. There are literally a handful of cases of reinfection properly documented in the world to date. A year from now that may have changed, slightly.

    Agree about the turkey farmers though. Some will have their families regardless but we are more of a law abiding bunch than we are sometimes given credit for, the one's not complying make a lot more noise. A lot of fattened turkeys are going to last a bit longer than normal.

    Reminds me of the brilliant Hamlet advert where the turkey is pretty cheerful and then sees a snowflake...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    I think this loss of immunity is grossly overstated, at least in the short to medium term. There are literally a handful of cases of reinfection properly documented in the world to date. A year from now that may have changed, slightly.

    Agree about the turkey farmers though. Some will have their families regardless but we are more of a law abiding bunch than we are sometimes given credit for, the one's not complying make a lot more noise. A lot of fattened turkeys are going to last a bit longer than normal.

    Reminds me of the brilliant Hamlet advert where the turkey is pretty cheerful and then sees a snowflake...
    My dad made the point that actually that's whole point of the turkey. You keep eating it long after Christmas Day.
  • Diverting away from the US election and Soy Sauce for a moment, the latest leaked SAGE forecasts are sobering*. Pox hospitalisation forecasted to peak above the spring high and then stay that high for a prolonged period. Happily we have got a highly responsive and competent government in charge so we don't need to worry about them doing anything heartless or stupid.

    *I for one intend to be a good friend to Scotch Whisky and interesting ale producers this winter
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited October 2020

    Given the apparent inaccuracy of some at least US Polls, I wonder if some campaign managers are are making 'Hilary's Mistake'.

    And a Good Morning to all. Looks a bit more promising here, weather-wise, after the misery of yesterday.

    The fun thing about this is that all the conditions to do Hillary's Mistake x2 are there. There's a big national lead, the polls in the midwest show smaller leads, if you have a small reduction to the national lead (so no AZ/FL/NC) and a big reduction to the midwest lead (so lose PA or WI) that gets you to the same place. Additionally, you can replace Hillary's "don't do much in the midwest" with Biden's "don't do much on the ground anywhere because covid".

    I don't think the conditions are anything like the same, not least because pollsters usually learn rather than doubling the error, but if it does happen then everyone will be saying it was obvious in hindsight and asking how the Dems could make the same mistakes again...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Diverting away from the US election and Soy Sauce for a moment, the latest leaked SAGE forecasts are sobering*. Pox hospitalisation forecasted to peak above the spring high and then stay that high for a prolonged period. Happily we have got a highly responsive and competent government in charge so we don't need to worry about them doing anything heartless or stupid.

    *I for one intend to be a good friend to Scotch Whisky and interesting ale producers this winter

    I think one of the Nightingale hospitals has been reactivated already. If this forecast is right more will follow.

    Oh, you're being sarcastic again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be a bit late for Bloombergs spending in Tx.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912?s=19

    Spanish language ads in the border market are good bang for buck here
    I agree, play to the whistle. Even if the ref is crooked.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    I think this loss of immunity is grossly overstated, at least in the short to medium term. There are literally a handful of cases of reinfection properly documented in the world to date. A year from now that may have changed, slightly.

    Agree about the turkey farmers though. Some will have their families regardless but we are more of a law abiding bunch than we are sometimes given credit for, the one's not complying make a lot more noise. A lot of fattened turkeys are going to last a bit longer than normal.

    Reminds me of the brilliant Hamlet advert where the turkey is pretty cheerful and then sees a snowflake...
    My dad made the point that actually that's whole point of the turkey. You keep eating it long after Christmas Day.
    Absolutely. My wife's favourite day is actually boxing day. We traditionally have a lot of family on Christmas. Its good fun but hard work. Boxing day is for us and turkey sandwiches with a bit of left over cranberry is an important part of that (as is the remaining sherry trifle, natch).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:
    This has been broadly suspected for some time.
    There is a big step forward between "suspected for some time" and scientific studies confirming what was suspected.
    Not that big a step, yet:

    "It could be that severe viral illness routinely results in the production of autoantibodies with little consequence; this could just be the first time we’re seeing it. We also don’t know how long the autoantibodies last. Our data suggest that they are relatively stable over a few weeks. But, we need follow-up studies to understand if they are persisting routinely beyond infection recovery.

    Importantly, we believe that the autoreactive responses we have identified here are specific to the SARS-CoV-2 infection – there is no reason to believe that similar results would be expected through vaccination against the virus."

    I cannot get my head round that second paragraph.Para 1: we have no idea whether this is a Sars thing or an every viral infection there ever was thing, para 2: but we are confident on the basis of absence of evidence not evidence of absence, that it is a Sars thing but not a Sars vaccine thing, no sirree.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Given the apparent inaccuracy of some at least US Polls, I wonder if some campaign managers are are making 'Hilary's Mistake'.

    And a Good Morning to all. Looks a bit more promising here, weather-wise, after the misery of yesterday.

    The fun thing about this is that all the conditions to do Hillary's Mistake x2 are there. There's a big national lead, the polls in the midwest show smaller leads, if you have a small reduction to the national lead (so no AZ/FL/NC) and a big reduction to the midwest lead (so lose PA or WI) that gets you to the same place. Additionally, you can replace Hillary's "don't do much in the midwest" with Biden's "don't do much on the ground anywhere because covid".

    I don't think the conditions are anything like the same, not least because pollsters usually learn rather than doubling the error, but if it does happen then everyone will be saying it was obvious in hindsight and asking how the Dems could make the same mistakes again...
    Doesn’t the rate of early dem voting indicate that the traditional ground game is not so important this time?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Someone commented in the last thread as to why Trump was campaigning in Wisconsin, and didn't that mean if he wins there he wins the election.

    This misreads what's happening: a serious malaise amongst a few people who are still stuck in 2016 normalcy bias. A spreadsheet is a waste of time if the input data is completely wrong. I don't know how many times this bears repeating but it needs to be: this is NOT 2016.

    The point about Wisconsin is the point about both candidates' final week schedules recently released: neither of them is scheduling to campaign in a single state that Trump lost in 2016. In other words, Trump is on the defence and Biden is on the offence.

    You have to read the actual signs now.

    Isn't that just a statement of the bleeding obvious? The incumbent needs to hold states to win, the challenger to gain them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    The fact that neither candidate has scheduled a stop over the final week in ANY of the states Trump lost in 2016 tells you a huge amount.

    This is betting gold.

    I take your general point but Trump won comfortably in 2016. He can afford to lose some of these states and still win. Its a bit like the 2010 election here. Cameron started from a long way back and the whole campaign was fought in Labour seats. He made it, just. Let's hope Biden can do the same.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Mr Tokyo: thanks for drawing our attentions to the Star Spangled Gamblers podcast.

    Of the disparity between the probability implied by the polls versus the odds it it is interesting to hear that one of the experts thinks that the disparity may remain because small-bet amateur money will keep coming for Trump whereas Shadsy is expecting Biden`s price to fall when the big money comes for him. Shadsy reported a £500k single bet on Biden two days ago.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    You also have to ask whether Bloomberg's is the most expensive job application for Chief Secretary ever.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    alex_ said:

    Off topic but very funny. Last night's Department for International Trade twitter lunacy about how Brexit would reduce the price of Soy Sauce.
    "Our trade deal with Japan will make it cheaper"
    "But its 0% tariff now and will be 0% tariff then, how is that cheaper?"
    "Because the WTO tariff is 6% so our new trade deal makes it cheaper"
    "But we aren't on WTO terms we're on EU terms which is 0%"
    "BLUE PASSPORTS"

    Don’t miss the added snippet that much (most?) of our imported Soy sauce apparently doesn’t come from Japan. It comes from Holland. But that’s ok because we will be trading with them on “Australia deal” terms...
    Yes, the route that so much global produce takes to reach the UK is something that so many people simply don't comprehend. If someone in Japan wants to export Soy Sauce to the UK, are they going to ship to us and only us? Or ship to everyone in Europe and split the orders at the destination?

    Regardless of whatever deals we sign with Kazakhstan, we are likely to still pay tariffs on it as it will be imported from the EU and not from Kazakhstan direct.
    It’s not even that, though - there’s a huge factory in the Netherlands making the stuff. Much of what we consume comes from it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    If you were a turkey farmer you already have the turkeys. If the Asda* buyer slashes their order then the birds have to go somewhere - I'd expect a whole load of new Direct to Consumer sales at bargain prices which hopefully then in turn leaves the Asda buyer up shit creek.

    *other more Covid-secure supermarkets are available
    My turkey is already out in the field next to the dog agility course. The turkeys seem to enjoy the spectacle and gather along the fence to watch.

    It may be a short life but at least I am doing a little to keep my Christmas dinner meanwhile entertained.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    A lot of fattened turkeys are going to last a bit longer than normal.

    Disaster for the country if so. We need them out of govt as soon as humanly possible.
    I must be getting confused. I thought it was pigs we had in government given the number of times people quote Orwell.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    A lot of fattened turkeys are going to last a bit longer than normal.

    Disaster for the country if so. We need them out of govt as soon as humanly possible.
    I must be getting confused. I thought it was pigs we had in government given the number of times people quote Orwell.
    I think that’s rather harsh. Pigs are intelligent, loyal and have a strong sense of cleanliness.

    Edit - and useful, too. They clear up messes nobody else will touch.
  • $15 million = small potatoes now in the overall scheme of things. I seem to recall Bloomberg having promised earlier in the POTUS campaign that he intended to donate hundreds of millions of dollars whether he himself was chosen as the Democratic nominee, or to the campaign of whoever else got the gig.

    Think the pledge was $100m. A quick google finds he also gave $18m to the DNC, $10m to House Majority PAC, $35m to Hawkfish, $5m to Fair fight. Add $15m to Texas and tens of millions in Florida it sounds like he is comfortably there.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    Off topic but very funny. Last night's Department for International Trade twitter lunacy about how Brexit would reduce the price of Soy Sauce.
    "Our trade deal with Japan will make it cheaper"
    "But its 0% tariff now and will be 0% tariff then, how is that cheaper?"
    "Because the WTO tariff is 6% so our new trade deal makes it cheaper"
    "But we aren't on WTO terms we're on EU terms which is 0%"
    "BLUE PASSPORTS"

    Don’t miss the added snippet that much (most?) of our imported Soy sauce apparently doesn’t come from Japan. It comes from Holland. But that’s ok because we will be trading with them on “Australia deal” terms...
    Yes, the route that so much global produce takes to reach the UK is something that so many people simply don't comprehend. If someone in Japan wants to export Soy Sauce to the UK, are they going to ship to us and only us? Or ship to everyone in Europe and split the orders at the destination?

    Regardless of whatever deals we sign with Kazakhstan, we are likely to still pay tariffs on it as it will be imported from the EU and not from Kazakhstan direct.
    It’s not even that, though - there’s a huge factory in the Netherlands making the stuff. Much of what we consume comes from it.
    "Kikkoman has production plants and offices in Japan, the U.S., the Netherlands, Singapore, Taiwan, China and Canada." Wiki

    But who would expect a Department of International Trade to be up to speed with trivia like that? Do they think Fosters comes from Australia?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Independent: Councils in England and Wales have handed hunts more than £160,000 of taxpayers’ money in grants intended to help businesses struggling during the pandemic.

    Shropshire has given out £50,000 – the highest total donated by the seven local authorities that have paid out.

    Critics said it was outrageous that hard-working taxpayers should be subsidising hunts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    edited October 2020

    Diverting away from the US election and Soy Sauce for a moment, the latest leaked SAGE forecasts are sobering*. Pox hospitalisation forecasted to peak above the spring high and then stay that high for a prolonged period. Happily we have got a highly responsive and competent government in charge so we don't need to worry about them doing anything heartless or stupid.

    *I for one intend to be a good friend to Scotch Whisky and interesting ale producers this winter

    Yes, the numbers are looking grim on my patch.

    At the peak in April we had about 230 covid patients in my Trust, with 55 on ICU. It was down to 60 by June, and as well documented rather persistent in Leicester, finally dropping to 8 in late August with none on ICU.

    We are back above 100 again, with 17 admissions yesterday. Only 8 on ICU I think, but the trend is concerning. We had 58 inpatients a week ago. The Trust has raised the covid alert to 3 (out of 5), but not yet cancelling admissions.

    There isn't the air of panic of March/April, and we have much better stocks, treatments and plans, but November looks to be an awful month. Diwali is usually an autumn highlight, a lovely positive autumn event with lots of family mixing, but going to be mid peak this year.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    Independent: Councils in England and Wales have handed hunts more than £160,000 of taxpayers’ money in grants intended to help businesses struggling during the pandemic.

    Shropshire has given out £50,000 – the highest total donated by the seven local authorities that have paid out.

    Critics said it was outrageous that hard-working taxpayers should be subsidising hunts.

    Hunts or *unts
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I highly recommend Mr Kipling apple, pear, and custard crumble tarts. Delicious.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Any of you guys done any work on what total turnout is likely to be? My finger in the air says 150m.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    IanB2 said:

    Independent: Councils in England and Wales have handed hunts more than £160,000 of taxpayers’ money in grants intended to help businesses struggling during the pandemic.

    Shropshire has given out £50,000 – the highest total donated by the seven local authorities that have paid out.

    Critics said it was outrageous that hard-working taxpayers should be subsidising hunts.

    Clearly this policy has foxed people.
  • Diverting away from the US election and Soy Sauce for a moment, the latest leaked SAGE forecasts are sobering*. Pox hospitalisation forecasted to peak above the spring high and then stay that high for a prolonged period. Happily we have got a highly responsive and competent government in charge so we don't need to worry about them doing anything heartless or stupid.

    *I for one intend to be a good friend to Scotch Whisky and interesting ale producers this winter

    The gaps between populist fuckwits spouting dangerous crap and it being confirmed (once again) that they're populist fuckwits spouting dangerous crap just get shorter and shorter.


    https://twitter.com/PaulbernalUK/status/1321341731523186688?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Someone commented in the last thread as to why Trump was campaigning in Wisconsin, and didn't that mean if he wins there he wins the election.

    This misreads what's happening: a serious malaise amongst a few people who are still stuck in 2016 normalcy bias. A spreadsheet is a waste of time if the input data is completely wrong. I don't know how many times this bears repeating but it needs to be: this is NOT 2016.

    The point about Wisconsin is the point about both candidates' final week schedules recently released: neither of them is scheduling to campaign in a single state that Trump lost in 2016. In other words, Trump is on the defence and Biden is on the offence.

    You have to read the actual signs now.

    While that’s true, it would not though be inconsistent with a 50/50 election, in which the incumbent would of course be playing defence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Things are fairly rapidly getting worse in Scotland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54714045

    Not least in Dundee: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-54694108

    Central Scotland have been on a fairly severe lockdown for 3 weeks already and counting. Its not working. I think its pretty obvious that the return of students to Universities and schools have more than offset every other measure. Like Boris Sturgeon is currently committed to keeping the schools open if at all possible. I am increasingly concerned it may not be.

    We had a virtual parents night for my son last night. His school is clearly working to be ready for returning to distance learning again, if required. I fear it will be with horrendous implications for the education of kids at schools not so well prepared.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    IshmaelZ said:

    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:
    This has been broadly suspected for some time.
    There is a big step forward between "suspected for some time" and scientific studies confirming what was suspected.
    Not that big a step, yet:

    "It could be that severe viral illness routinely results in the production of autoantibodies with little consequence; this could just be the first time we’re seeing it. We also don’t know how long the autoantibodies last. Our data suggest that they are relatively stable over a few weeks. But, we need follow-up studies to understand if they are persisting routinely beyond infection recovery.

    Importantly, we believe that the autoreactive responses we have identified here are specific to the SARS-CoV-2 infection – there is no reason to believe that similar results would be expected through vaccination against the virus."

    I cannot get my head round that second paragraph.Para 1: we have no idea whether this is a Sars thing or an every viral infection there ever was thing, para 2: but we are confident on the basis of absence of evidence not evidence of absence, that it is a Sars thing but not a Sars vaccine thing, no sirree.
    A vaccine is not the virus, and will not contain the molecular structures which have this effect (some of which have been identified).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Foxy said:

    Diverting away from the US election and Soy Sauce for a moment, the latest leaked SAGE forecasts are sobering*. Pox hospitalisation forecasted to peak above the spring high and then stay that high for a prolonged period. Happily we have got a highly responsive and competent government in charge so we don't need to worry about them doing anything heartless or stupid.

    *I for one intend to be a good friend to Scotch Whisky and interesting ale producers this winter

    Yes, the numbers are looking grim on my patch.

    At the peak in April we had about 230 covid patients in my Trust, with 55 on ICU. It was down to 60 by June, and as well documented rather persistent in Leicester, finally dropping to 8 in late August with none on ICU.

    We are back above 100 again, with 17 admissions yesterday. Only 8 on ICU I think, but the trend is concerning. We had 58 inpatients a week ago. The Trust has raised the covid alert to 3 (out of 5), but not yet cancelling admissions.

    There isn't the air of panic of March/April, and we have much better stocks, treatments and plans, but November looks to be an awful month. Diwali is usually an autumn highlight, a lovely positive autumn event with lots of family mixing, but going to be mid peak this year.

    Foxy, I saw a client yesterday who needs a hip replacement but cannot get NHS to do until “Easter at the earliest “ . And he hasn’t even got that in writing. Poor guy is in constant pain, bone rubbing on bone. Do you know whether private hospitals are more “operational” and therefore may provide an alternative option for him?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    I think this loss of immunity is grossly overstated, at least in the short to medium term. There are literally a handful of cases of reinfection properly documented in the world to date. A year from now that may have changed, slightly.

    Agree about the turkey farmers though. Some will have their families regardless but we are more of a law abiding bunch than we are sometimes given credit for, the one's not complying make a lot more noise. A lot of fattened turkeys are going to last a bit longer than normal.

    Reminds me of the brilliant Hamlet advert where the turkey is pretty cheerful and then sees a snowflake...
    I think Boris is going to relax the rules over Xmas and allow indoor mingling and up to 12 people. It will mean a small bump in R but will be good for morale and mental health (and for Boris as Father Xmas).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Independent: Councils in England and Wales have handed hunts more than £160,000 of taxpayers’ money in grants intended to help businesses struggling during the pandemic.

    Shropshire has given out £50,000 – the highest total donated by the seven local authorities that have paid out.

    Critics said it was outrageous that hard-working taxpayers should be subsidising hunts.

    Clearly this policy has foxed people.
    They should be hounded from office, but I expect will go to ground...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    DavidL said:

    Things are fairly rapidly getting worse in Scotland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54714045

    Not least in Dundee: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-54694108

    Central Scotland have been on a fairly severe lockdown for 3 weeks already and counting. Its not working. I think its pretty obvious that the return of students to Universities and schools have more than offset every other measure. Like Boris Sturgeon is currently committed to keeping the schools open if at all possible. I am increasingly concerned it may not be.

    We had a virtual parents night for my son last night. His school is clearly working to be ready for returning to distance learning again, if required. I fear it will be with horrendous implications for the education of kids at schools not so well prepared.

    We were ordered to take all necessary equipment to commence distance learning home before half term.

    I am not sure whether that was a wise leader taking sensible precautions or a grim foreboding.

    Of course, it may simply be that they feared more staff would have to self isolate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Stocky said:

    Any of you guys done any work on what total turnout is likely to be? My finger in the air says 150m.

    I saw a prediction recently where the calc came out at 160m
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Given the apparent inaccuracy of some at least US Polls, I wonder if some campaign managers are are making 'Hilary's Mistake'...

    No, I’m sure their spelling is better than that.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    It may be a bit late for Bloombergs spending in Tx.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912?s=19

    Spanish language ads in the border market are good bang for buck here
    The key to this advertising is not those who have voted but those who are yet to vote. Turnout is key on both sides. Each camp normally struggles to get much more than 50% of their natural supporters to vote. The one who gets 60% wins. Latino participation is traditionally even worse than the abysmal average. If Bloomberg drives this up it could get interesting.

    Still find it hard to believe that Texas could be flipped though.
    I agree, but then if it was going to vote Democrat how would that happen? Large turnout in Democrat-inclined cities would be one ingredient. So if Harris county (Houston) is already past its 2016 turnout then we seem to be watching it happen - unless on average the turnout is still higher in Republican rural areas.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Independent: Councils in England and Wales have handed hunts more than £160,000 of taxpayers’ money in grants intended to help businesses struggling during the pandemic.

    Shropshire has given out £50,000 – the highest total donated by the seven local authorities that have paid out.

    Critics said it was outrageous that hard-working taxpayers should be subsidising hunts.

    Clearly this policy has foxed people.
    They should be hounded from office, but I expect will go to ground...
    I expect many people are baying for their blood.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 839
    Texas and Ohio are safe for Trump whatever any one wants to do, most have voted havn't they?
    Reading the polls overall Trump appears to be edging closer, of course he can lose, what by five milliuon and still get in. Crazy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Independent: Councils in England and Wales have handed hunts more than £160,000 of taxpayers’ money in grants intended to help businesses struggling during the pandemic.

    Shropshire has given out £50,000 – the highest total donated by the seven local authorities that have paid out.

    Critics said it was outrageous that hard-working taxpayers should be subsidising hunts.

    Clearly this policy has foxed people.
    They should be hounded from office, but I expect will go to ground...
    I expect many people are baying for their blood.
    A pack of scoundrels.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    If you were a turkey farmer you already have the turkeys. If the Asda* buyer slashes their order then the birds have to go somewhere - I'd expect a whole load of new Direct to Consumer sales at bargain prices which hopefully then in turn leaves the Asda buyer up shit creek.

    *other more Covid-secure supermarkets are available
    We've ordered our turkey, though we don't know who we're eating it with. Isn't it possible there will be demand for more turkeys this year?

    If we normally share a turkey with another household, but this year the two households eat separately and both want a turkey for tradition's sake, then that's a lot more turkey.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Texas turnout as a whole is ALREADY at 88% of 2016 so it's almost certainly going to be a high turnout election in Texas.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Things are fairly rapidly getting worse in Scotland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54714045

    Not least in Dundee: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-54694108

    Central Scotland have been on a fairly severe lockdown for 3 weeks already and counting. Its not working. I think its pretty obvious that the return of students to Universities and schools have more than offset every other measure. Like Boris Sturgeon is currently committed to keeping the schools open if at all possible. I am increasingly concerned it may not be.

    We had a virtual parents night for my son last night. His school is clearly working to be ready for returning to distance learning again, if required. I fear it will be with horrendous implications for the education of kids at schools not so well prepared.

    Deaths are coming down across Scotland even as cases and ICU rises. Which is odd.

    Here in Edinburgh cases are coming down at a pleasing clip. After the student spike it seems Edinburgers have kept themselves to themselves.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    I think this loss of immunity is grossly overstated, at least in the short to medium term. There are literally a handful of cases of reinfection properly documented in the world to date. A year from now that may have changed, slightly.

    Agree about the turkey farmers though. Some will have their families regardless but we are more of a law abiding bunch than we are sometimes given credit for, the one's not complying make a lot more noise. A lot of fattened turkeys are going to last a bit longer than normal.

    Reminds me of the brilliant Hamlet advert where the turkey is pretty cheerful and then sees a snowflake...
    I think Boris is going to relax the rules over Xmas and allow indoor mingling and up to 12 people. It will mean a small bump in R but will be good for morale and mental health (and for Boris as Father Xmas).
    Possibly but there will be a lot of problems if this is left to the last moment. Imagine being in charge of Markie's online food shopping right now...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Staffordshire and Dudley set to move into Tier 2 this weekend:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-staffordshire-to-move-into-tier-2-covid-19-restrictions-as-soon-as-this-weekend-12116301

    Cannock is apparently the worst hotspot, which I will admit surprises me somewhat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    If you were a turkey farmer you already have the turkeys. If the Asda* buyer slashes their order then the birds have to go somewhere - I'd expect a whole load of new Direct to Consumer sales at bargain prices which hopefully then in turn leaves the Asda buyer up shit creek.

    *other more Covid-secure supermarkets are available
    We've ordered our turkey, though we don't know who we're eating it with. Isn't it possible there will be demand for more turkeys this year?

    If we normally share a turkey with another household, but this year the two households eat separately and both want a turkey for tradition's sake, then that's a lot more turkey.
    Or a goose.

    I would quite look forward to cooking a goose. I’ve got an amazing recipe for goose, stuffing, goose fat roast potatoes and red cabbage I want to try.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Diverting away from the US election and Soy Sauce for a moment, the latest leaked SAGE forecasts are sobering*. Pox hospitalisation forecasted to peak above the spring high and then stay that high for a prolonged period. Happily we have got a highly responsive and competent government in charge so we don't need to worry about them doing anything heartless or stupid.

    *I for one intend to be a good friend to Scotch Whisky and interesting ale producers this winter

    Yes, the numbers are looking grim on my patch.

    At the peak in April we had about 230 covid patients in my Trust, with 55 on ICU. It was down to 60 by June, and as well documented rather persistent in Leicester, finally dropping to 8 in late August with none on ICU.

    We are back above 100 again, with 17 admissions yesterday. Only 8 on ICU I think, but the trend is concerning. We had 58 inpatients a week ago. The Trust has raised the covid alert to 3 (out of 5), but not yet cancelling admissions.

    There isn't the air of panic of March/April, and we have much better stocks, treatments and plans, but November looks to be an awful month. Diwali is usually an autumn highlight, a lovely positive autumn event with lots of family mixing, but going to be mid peak this year.

    Foxy, I saw a client yesterday who needs a hip replacement but cannot get NHS to do until “Easter at the earliest “ . And he hasn’t even got that in writing. Poor guy is in constant pain, bone rubbing on bone. Do you know whether private hospitals are more “operational” and therefore may provide an alternative option for him?
    In Leicester we are middle of the pack on waiting lists, neither best nor worst in the land. We have over 1000 orthopedic patients now that have waited over a year.

    I was chatting to one of my orthopedic colleagues last week, who is struggling to get either theatre time at the private hospital for hip replacements. He has over 30 waiting, and no slots left this year. The Covid PPE precautions etc really slow stuff down, and while surgeons are champing at the bit, anaesthetists (who also run ICU) and theatre staff are looking very strained.

    Covid precautions cannot be ignored. We have had several ward outbreaks, despite all admissions being screened.

    So the situation in the Private sector isn't looking great either, but may vary with local disease patterns and capacity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    theakes said:

    Texas and Ohio are safe for Trump whatever any one wants to do, most have voted havn't they?
    Reading the polls overall Trump appears to be edging closer, of course he can lose, what by five milliuon and still get in. Crazy.

    He will win by loads more than 5 million
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Things are fairly rapidly getting worse in Scotland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54714045

    Not least in Dundee: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-54694108

    Central Scotland have been on a fairly severe lockdown for 3 weeks already and counting. Its not working. I think its pretty obvious that the return of students to Universities and schools have more than offset every other measure. Like Boris Sturgeon is currently committed to keeping the schools open if at all possible. I am increasingly conceNorned it may not be.

    We had a virtual parents night for my son last night. His school is clearly working to be ready for returning to distance learning again, if required. I fear it will be with horrendous implications for the education of kids at schools not so well prepared.

    Deaths are coming down across Scotland even as cases and ICU rises. Which is odd.

    Here in Edinburgh cases are coming down at a pleasing clip. After the student spike it seems Edinburgers have kept themselves to themselves.
    The stats don't show reductions in Lothian: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877

    Of the total of 9,153 cases in Lothian 1219 are in the last 7 days with over 200 yesterday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Trump is saving up the really good stuff for his second term.
    End of birthright citizenship ?

    https://twitter.com/Haleaziz/status/1310983880187412480
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    This shows the Tories for what they really are:
    Exposes Coronavirus Corruption at the Heart of Government
    https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1320984514634649601
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The NC SurveyUSA poll has given me some flutters about my NC bet.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Nigelb said:

    Given the apparent inaccuracy of some at least US Polls, I wonder if some campaign managers are are making 'Hilary's Mistake'...

    No, I’m sure their spelling is better than that.
    Touché!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Things are fairly rapidly getting worse in Scotland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54714045

    Not least in Dundee: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-54694108

    Central Scotland have been on a fairly severe lockdown for 3 weeks already and counting. Its not working. I think its pretty obvious that the return of students to Universities and schools have more than offset every other measure. Like Boris Sturgeon is currently committed to keeping the schools open if at all possible. I am increasingly conceNorned it may not be.

    We had a virtual parents night for my son last night. His school is clearly working to be ready for returning to distance learning again, if required. I fear it will be with horrendous implications for the education of kids at schools not so well prepared.

    Deaths are coming down across Scotland even as cases and ICU rises. Which is odd.

    Here in Edinburgh cases are coming down at a pleasing clip. After the student spike it seems Edinburgers have kept themselves to themselves.
    The stats don't show reductions in Lothian: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877

    Of the total of 9,153 cases in Lothian 1219 are in the last 7 days with over 200 yesterday.
    Correct, West East and midlothian cases are rising, City of Edinburgh they are coming down.
  • For the last few days I've been finding it takes ages to load the site on a mobile (Samsung, Chrome App). Have others been having problems?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    For the last few days I've been finding it takes ages to load the site on a mobile (Samsung, Chrome App). Have others been having problems?

    Yep. Discussed the day before yesterday AIR
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    If you were a turkey farmer you already have the turkeys. If the Asda* buyer slashes their order then the birds have to go somewhere - I'd expect a whole load of new Direct to Consumer sales at bargain prices which hopefully then in turn leaves the Asda buyer up shit creek.

    *other more Covid-secure supermarkets are available
    We've ordered our turkey, though we don't know who we're eating it with. Isn't it possible there will be demand for more turkeys this year?

    If we normally share a turkey with another household, but this year the two households eat separately and both want a turkey for tradition's sake, then that's a lot more turkey.
    Or a goose.

    I would quite look forward to cooking a goose. I’ve got an amazing recipe for goose, stuffing, goose fat roast potatoes and red cabbage I want to try.
    We had goose one year. The fat levels were just unmanageable. Literally pints. Never again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    If you were a turkey farmer you already have the turkeys. If the Asda* buyer slashes their order then the birds have to go somewhere - I'd expect a whole load of new Direct to Consumer sales at bargain prices which hopefully then in turn leaves the Asda buyer up shit creek.

    *other more Covid-secure supermarkets are available
    We've ordered our turkey, though we don't know who we're eating it with. Isn't it possible there will be demand for more turkeys this year?

    If we normally share a turkey with another household, but this year the two households eat separately and both want a turkey for tradition's sake, then that's a lot more turkey.
    A local turkey farmer/farm foods shop operator is planning to sell 'half turkeys' apparently. Split down the middle so there's a leg on each.
  • For the last few days I've been finding it takes ages to load the site on a mobile (Samsung, Chrome App). Have others been having problems?

    Thanks. Hope it can be sorted before election night.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    If there is no lasting immunity can they let the students home for Christmas? I’m glad I’m not a turkey farmer or butcher trying to plan for the holiday.

    If you were a turkey farmer you already have the turkeys. If the Asda* buyer slashes their order then the birds have to go somewhere - I'd expect a whole load of new Direct to Consumer sales at bargain prices which hopefully then in turn leaves the Asda buyer up shit creek.

    *other more Covid-secure supermarkets are available
    We've ordered our turkey, though we don't know who we're eating it with. Isn't it possible there will be demand for more turkeys this year?

    If we normally share a turkey with another household, but this year the two households eat separately and both want a turkey for tradition's sake, then that's a lot more turkey.
    Or a goose.

    I would quite look forward to cooking a goose. I’ve got an amazing recipe for goose, stuffing, goose fat roast potatoes and red cabbage I want to try.
    You need a big oven, and a deep dish below for all the fat., Tastes great, especially the darker meat
  • Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Things are fairly rapidly getting worse in Scotland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54714045

    Not least in Dundee: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-54694108

    Central Scotland have been on a fairly severe lockdown for 3 weeks already and counting. Its not working. I think its pretty obvious that the return of students to Universities and schools have more than offset every other measure. Like Boris Sturgeon is currently committed to keeping the schools open if at all possible. I am increasingly concerned it may not be.

    We had a virtual parents night for my son last night. His school is clearly working to be ready for returning to distance learning again, if required. I fear it will be with horrendous implications for the education of kids at schools not so well prepared.

    Deaths are coming down across Scotland even as cases and ICU rises. Which is odd.

    Here in Edinburgh cases are coming down at a pleasing clip. After the student spike it seems Edinburgers have kept themselves to themselves.
    'Ye'll have had yer tea, Covid.'
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Vf has now finally stopped loading comments (period) on my phone on chrome.

    Does anyone else have this problem?
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