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I’ve finally bet on Biden as next President at a 67% chance – politicalbetting.com
I’ve finally bet on Biden as next President at a 67% chance – politicalbetting.com
Ever since the 2020 White House Race started formally ahead of the first primary TV debates in June last year I have been very critical of Joe Biden and never thought that he would get the nomination.
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I suggest that it's best at this point to discount all polling by conducted by companies that either have links to the respective parties (the likes of PPP, Trafalgar, Rasmussen) or which was commissioned by organisations which are strongly campaigning for either side.
https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1321197162873688065?s=19
https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1321175998319177730?s=20
Counting chickens.
Unless of course you are a chic young lady (such as LadyG?) with a stylish face mask.
And, I figure that if Trump wins then the last thing I will be worrying about is my lost money.
The current Tory leader is in difficulty but his leadership is far from derelict. He still has reserves of support in the country, a ruthless streak and infinite pride. Two axioms stand out from any study of Johnson’s career: first, he must never be underestimated. Second, his greatest skill is getting out of the scrapes that his lack of judgment gets him into. Put those together and you arrive at the forecast that he will be a terrible prime minister who is good at clinging to power. He will leave no legacy to inherit, only a mess to clear up.
There can be no continuity in Johnsonism. It is an episode, a convulsion, a one-off. The next prime minister, even if it is another Tory, must run as an antidote to the current one. That is hard for someone who has helped cook and serve the noxious brew. Sunak has less time than he thinks. He has to decide how long to be part of the Tories’ Johnson problem before somehow offering himself as their solution
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/27/rishi-sunak-ambition-collision-course-boris-johnson-ego-tory-party
If...
Keep up the good work, Trumpsky!
Cannot wait to find out how THIS pans out in the next Trafalgar "poll"
"If your neighbor knew that Joe Biden was recklessly making himself a target by his very existence . . ."
Hm. Suppose you're trying to work out how much someone weighs. Do you go with a set of scales, however imprecise, or a thermometer?
I might set some of my Y13s that question: how do measure someone’s mass with a thermometer? I can think of three ways off the top of my head...
throw it at someone floating in space / kinetic energy calculation
hmmm, struggling for a third
IF you REALLY do think that, then buddy, I am VERY sorry for you.
It is all dependent on when the market settles.
If you are in space measure the value of g from the person would do it.
One I was thinking of was to supply a know amount of heat to them and see how much their temperature changes.
Then I had your first one.
Another is to offer to give them the thermometer if they will tell you their weight ...
At every age, women are more likely than thein men-folk to go for Biden over Trump. At every education level, ditto.
Now, young women may be more anti-Trump than older ones, but that doesn't affect the point that the higher the proportion of women voters there are (currently 56%), the harder it is for the President to get re-elected.
Stick it in their middle, kill 'em and measure the time taken to return to RT?
AND if YOU find it funny in this context, then I question just where your head is at?
An internal analysis of the projected course of the second wave is understood to show deaths peaking at a lower level than in the spring but remaining at that level for weeks or even months.
It is understood that the projection – provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) – has led to intense lobbying from Sir Patrick Vallance and other Government advisers for Boris Johnson to take more drastic action.
"It's going to be worse this time, more deaths," said one well-placed source. "That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister, and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lock down again."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/27/second-covid-wave-forecast-deadly-first/
Not sure how you propose to measure g with a thermometer though.
EDIT oh you mean between the person and the thermometer. I thought you meant earth g, no wonder I was confused. Good one.
When can you think of a national election where the polls have been more than four points wrong in recent times?
2019 UK - basically right
2018 Midterms - basically right, maybe Dems very slightly underrated
2017 UK - Labour did three points better
2017 France - Macron outperformed by 1%, Le Pen underperformed by 1%
2016 - Brexit - Polls were four points out
2016 US - Polls were one point out
2012 US - Polls were three points out
2008 US - Polls were basically right
Trumpsky is the joke - a VERY VERY VERY BAD ONE
Dunno if you were around in 2016 but there was a guy who claimed that a Trump supporting state official who described Michelle Obama as an 'ape in high heels' was only joking.
--AS
Besides fact that the number of Americans who vote for President based on their running mate has NEVER been large.
Fact that Spiro Agnew and Dan Quayle were national jokes did NOT stop Nixon from being re-elected OR Bush the Elder from being elected (his defeat for re-election NOT being due to DQ).
Can someone recommend me some decent running shoes, my normal Nikes just can't cope.
I've turned into Forrest Gump since lockdown.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1321213111874031617
There was no way of him saying that without the terminally offended complaining about it.
If he'd said Biden is old and likely to drop dead at any moment (which looks pretty likely judging from recent footage), people would be pretending to get offended by that instead.
This is real hard evidence of Biden taking Montana for 100% certain and the money I placed on him doing so at 12/1 has nothing to do with my prognostications.
https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1321208404896030720
Although they could obviously have them in July or august without too much difficulty, even if things in general don't improve.
Already voted
Trump 36
Biden 83
Others 4
(Total 127)
5.2 million had voted at the start of the fieldwork, 6 million by the end date.
Remaining 2 party voters split 156 Trump / 92 Biden
Total 253
There's simply not that many voters left !