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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The year end YouGov polls from 2010 – 2014
Just to note that tomorrow there will not be the usual PB Christmas Day cross-word from StJohn. For various reasons he’s not been able to do one this year.
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I've blogged on 6 reasons for Tories to be cheerful this Christmas
And a prosperous 2014 to all (except bookmakers!) .
Very interesting to compare the graphs. Labour and LIb Dems are more or less the same, but there's a more significant shift in UKIP and Conservative numbers.
If I don't get back a merry Christmas to all.
I was chatting to my 10 year old in the car yesterday. His latest idea was that we should spend our foreign aid budget on plane tickets so that those living in horrible countries can live somewhere better. He saw little point in giving them food so they could stay put. His view was that we would only end up saving them again next year. If they moved to proper countries they could get a job and look after themselves.
What political party is he going to end up supporting?
Happy Winterval to everyone
:-)
Christmas is more than just an opportunity to hide bad news. Enjoy it.
Seasonal compliments to OGH, other posters and thread headers. Normal hostilities will be resumed asap.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25488875
"The Bishop of Warrington, the Right Reverend Richard Blackburn, said the changes [introduction of universal credit] - along with austerity cuts - had hit the "most vulnerable" hardest. "
"He said the changes were "long overdue" but there were inevitably "casualties"."
So, they're long overdue and also hitting the vulnerable hardest?
So that's a plus for UC. However the way it has been introduced, combined with a reduction in some elements means that some of the most vulnerable had been disadvantaged. Sometimes, I understand, severely.
I'm not quite alone in the office today, there are a couple of other lost souls in. Nice a quiet though.
Got the entire in-law clan round for Christmas Eve dinner later. Was up fairly late cleaning and cooking.. Felt like I chopped my body weight in onions. I'm making an Indian feast, the kitchen will smell amazing.
Favourite cracker joke #1: Two snowmen are in a field, one turns to the other and says "Can you smell carrots?"
Wife of above: Looks like rain dear.
Potted version:
It's Chritmas Eve and Mr and Mrs Pepperpott are having tea and a scone in a little cafe by the seaside. It's terrible weather outside. Suddenly the door bursts open and there stands Rudolf Nureyev! He's in a very miserable mood and slumps in to the nearest chair muttering to himself. Mrs Pepperpott asks her husband, What's wrong with him? The Russian must have overheard because he interjects, Rain it's always sodding rain in this country! Mr Pepperpott, ever the proud Englishman leaps to the national defence, Nonsense he says, It's a bit windy I grant you and there is a chance of snow but no rain! The dancer leaps out of his chair, and demands again that there is rain in the air! Mrs Pepperpott leans over her husband and in a calming voice says to him:
Wait for it...
....
"Rudolph the Red knows rain dear..."
Badum tch!
Unlike Mr Barber, I'm not going to make it to Guildford today as SWT have alll sorts of problems with flooding and fallen trees.
First, let me wish everyone on here a Happy Christmas with particular thanks to Robert and Mike for keeping the site going and providing a place for us all to agree coherently or incoherently (delete as appropriate).
On-topic, the graph shows a slight recovery for the Conservatives but compared to their position this time two years ago, they remain a long way off the pace (not so much four lengths behind and on the bridle as someone put it but ten lengths down and hanging right under pressure). There's a very long way to go but with the in-built seat bias to contend with, a Conservative majority still looks a much bigger ask than a Labour majority.
British Second World War codebreaker Alan Turing receives Royal pardon
And one of these for Avery:
http://search.aol.co.uk/aol/image?q=chicken+suit+images&v_t=client97-sb
The bet I offered on the previous thread is open to all Osborne fans.
What did Father Christmas do when he went speed dating? - He pulled a cracker!
Nice to see you're as full of festive cheer as ever
Something for the PB Hodges to chew over with their Christmas turkey.
The graph does seem to give lie to the claims that Labour are as effected by the rise of UKIP as the Tories.
Indeed the problem in many countries is that they are run by narrow minded nationalists, and demagogues who like to blame their failings on others.
(Although IMHO Tommy Flowers deserves much credit he does not get)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Flowers
The Tories have lost 5% and UKIP gained 6%
Looks plain and simple to me, but hey ho.....or should that be ho ho?
To support the argument that UKIP are eating into Labour's vote, local election results work better than YouGov polls.
local election results:
2012: Con 31%, Lab 38%, LD 16%
2013: Con 25%, Lab 29%, LD 14%, UKIP 23%
(Edit: interesting data, btw)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012
But I think 2013 was the first attempt by UKIP to stand candidates across the country.
Second rule of the PB Hodges, find a set of results favorable and spin, spin, spin.
Third rule of PB Hodges, if an opinion poll is not good, don't mention it, ignore it....look squirrel. For an example check this site for the last Yougov of the year. No, you won't see much mention of it. Then check the third to last one of the year, which showed the 2% Labour lead.......sub-sectioned to death.
Merry Christmas on and all......even the PB Hodges.
"The six point Labour lead is the same as the average in YouGov’s polls across December, in comparison in December 2012 YouGov was showing an average Labour lead of eleven points, so year-on-year Labour’s lead has almost halved – the YouGov average for December 2013 is Conservative 33% (up 1 since 2012), Labour 39% (down 4), Lib Dem 9% (down 1), UKIP 12% (up 3).
Labour leads have seemed a tad lower since the Autumn statement, but the vast majority that narrowing came in the early part of 2013 when economic optimism first stating picking up. We can see the changes in attitudes to the economy in the other regular YouGov trackers here. 17% now think the economy is doing well, 50% badly. It’s still strongly negative, but compare it to December 2012 when it was 5% well, 73% badly. 41% of people now think the coalition are managing the economy well, 51% badly – it’s still a net negative, but compare it to December 2012 when it was 31% well, 59% badly"
It really is most tiresome.
Have a sherry and a mince pie
Heading into bat second, opener Cameron put on an excellent hundred but around him the wickets tumbled. Middle order pair Fox and Lansley both out for ducks. Cable was looking very good till he holed out for 31. A total of 270 was amassed leaving a deficit of 80. No-one from the Labour team bowled particularly well, a combination of rash shots and poor decision making was to blame.
The match is still very winnable for both sides heading into the second innings, though it looks a bigger challenge for the blue team. The draw just edges favouritism however.
Current prices:
Lab: 2.68
Con 4.3
Draw 2.52
Says a man who has described the whole of 2012's Labour polling as an outlier to try and mask the 2013 decline.
EDIT
The House of Commons library offer slightly different numbers.
"Estimates suggest that Labour would have won 29% of the national equivalent share of the vote, the Conservatives 26%, UKIP 22% and the Liberal Democrats 13%."
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/RP13-30/local-elections-2013
I need to get my back ready for moving those goalposts again and would like a bit of time to get it ready.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7ErrZ-ipoE
but Wings!?!?! Get thee to Planet Rock immediately:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od7GUy9XS7c
Just 2 years ago it had UKIP on 1%
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100251801/2013-and-the-winner-is-ed-miliband/
Free market economics plus unlimited immigration...
My immediate reaction was 'you've just kicked them in the nads, and *now* you're complaining they don't help you'...
There are two fish in a tank. One of them turns to the other and says "How do you drive this thing?"
Clegg...
Seasons Greetings to one and all, and best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2014!
In particular thanks to OGH who does an excellent job!
http://www.clerktogovernors.co.uk/ofsteds-subsidiary-guidance-showing-changes-in-january-2014-version/
http://teachingbattleground.wordpress.com/ (retweeted by the DfE, which says a lot - plus they have a 'ban gimmickry in teaching' bloke blogging for them on their facebook page).
Anyway... Merry Christmas to all PBers, even the Tories (I'll pray for your souls
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8qE6WQmNus
There is hardly any movement from 2010 L voters, but that is because Brown had chased them away already.
One of the main influences, a major clampdown on imports into India (for jewelery) as it was affecting their balance of payments.
The Gordon Brown memorial award for economic ineptitude:
There can only be one winner this year. As an economic brainbox, with lots of Treasury experience helping organise the end of boom and bust, Ed Balls has huge intellectual self-confidence. This makes his colleagues wary of taking him on when he says he knows what is really happening in the economy.
These figures are almost identical to this time last year !
Globally it seems to have been a quiet year...
On gold - there is a huge transfer of physical gold underway from west to east. Vaults in London / New York at record low inventories. At some point the western central banks will no longer be able to intervene to depress the price of gold and the gap between the price of gold and the gold price (ie physical vs paper) will close. IMHO $1200 is a floor.
To everyone else too:
Happy Christams and a prosperous 2014 to you all. A couple of cracker jokes to throw in the mix:
Q: What did the fish say when it swam into a wall?
A. Dam!
1. Knock knock
2. Who's thee?
1. The interrupting cow
2. The int...
1. MOOOO!
"Looking at individual results over the year, my impression is that UKIP have started to do quite well in classic working-class Labour seats where Labour is completely dominant:"
From my anecdotal position, I tend to agree. In safe Labour seats, it's nice to give the party the occasional kick in the nuts. But a few of the voters will go for good once they're broken the habit of a lifetime. Therein lies the danger for Labour if Ukip continue to thrive.
Anyway Happy Christmas to everyone and thanks for the entertainment.
Yes the ends are similar but quite a bit of variation in between.e.g Euro has been at 1.234 and a low of 1.143. So if you picked your timing right and took the right options, there was a lot of money to be made.
Some shares have shown a very good return. Picked up one in Aug 2012 at 250p and sold out this December at 690p, but you have to know a lot about the company. Luckily the stock market often over-panics at short term bad news about a sound business, which allows for better than expected profits on the rebound. The share will increase in value over the next five years as their global strategy is right, but I wished to take the major part of the profit now.
888Sport are currently 2.625 (13/8) Conservatives most seats.
Bold predictions for 2014: Kippers to win the Euros, Yes to win in Scotland, the Toon to get into Europe and the Mackems to get relegated.
Q: How does an elephant ask for a cream bun?
A: (Extend your arm from your face and waggle your hand in the face of the victim and say:) Can I have a cream bun please?
Anyway, my contribution to bad Xmas cracker jokes:
Q: What do you call a fish with no eye?
A: FSH
Merry Xmas to all!
Some PBers are yet to recover from my jam joke.
However
The Bank of England is to introduce plastic banknotes that can survive a spin in a washing machine by 2016.
Surely that will just encourage money laundering ?
Whether I make a profit is another matter though
Perhaps you can try it for us and test their de-inking resistance?
And a merry Christmas to you Malcolm. I would even wish you a happy new year but I fear you might in fact find it a bit disappointing.
a. No idea.
@antifrank so is it a total of £200 at 4/6 you have on the LD/UKIP bet?
My fav joke...
I asked a trainer at the gym if he could teach me to do the splits...
He said "Sure, how flexible are you?"....
I said "I cant make Tuesdays..."
boom boom
Merry Christmas
No longer do they have unrealistic hopes of a great breakthrough...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-23/how-to-be-happy.html
Make sure you go to church this Christmas!
Well the area/county which has most of its land devoted to golf courses is: Merseyside at 2.82%. So now we may have a few different adjectives to describe Merseysiders.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24378868
I have three Montescristo No 2s stored away, there is whisky, there is beer, there are a couple of bottles of very nice wine, there is meat, there is family, there is no work. I have made my peace with the cricket and the football. For the next week or so everything is sorted. Bliss.
Once again - joy and peace to one and all. I may pop in from time to time. When I do I will probably be a little oiled, so apologies in advance.
Also as a scouser... wot youze tryin to say like?
"TIM IS NOT BANNED !"
He's probably playing golf on one of the many Merseyside golf courses.
Merry Christmas one and all!
Notice I'm using friendly first names 'cause it's Xmas.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10536800/Nigel-Farage-pay-no-attention-to-Vince-Cables-rivers-of-blood-warning.html
How does Father Christmas like his pizza?
Deep pan, crisp and even.