A PB was asking yesterday what we thought of 'Roadkill'.
Here's Simon Heffer's view:
"One doesn’t need to be steeped in the realities of British politics (and I have written about them for 35 years) to discern on the briefest acquaintance that this series is one of the greatest turkeys even in the recent inglorious history of the BBC’s drama department."
Is it possible, Big G and others, that the Welsh government policy will be a success and that it will result in greater popularity? Obviously tampons are essential, but notwithstanding the issues about essential/non-essential, the thrust of the policy is to get people to stay at home as much as possible and minimise interactions with others.
I'm interested in Victoria/Melbourne (double the population of Wales), the latter now with zero Covid cases, Yes, the lockdown was harder and longer than the Welsh one, but it has undoubtedly worked. And I imagine the Australians were just as unenthusiastic about the restrictions as the Welsh. And yet now, Victoria/Melbourne politicians seem to be basking in much acclaim as life return to something like normal. Of course, it may be short-lived as the virus will probably re-emerge there, but at least now they know what to do to minimise its spread. I suspect this is the sort of model Drakeford has in mind, though politically he can't go as far as the Australians. It may be that the rest of the UK isn't doing enough, and that Wales (and NI) have a more sensible approach. We shall see.
A really sensible post.
One would think that what is a bold move by the Welsh Government would be seen as a useful barometer for future management of the pandemic across the other home nations, be that if it works or fails. The assumption that it is doomed to fail because Johnson disagrees with it is somewhat disappointing. For what it's worth, I would have liked to see an extra week.
What the MSM have failed to do is to actually produce figures for what being on UC means and how much someone actually gets. What Pagan2 showed yesterday is that for a family living in rented accommodation UC is actually extremely generous and there are certain situations where someone on UC would have more dispoable income than a family on an average salary with average housing costs who are not entitled to anything other than child benefit.
You really do not get it do you
Arguing against Marcus Rashford, a national treasure fighting for poor children, is just wrong on every level and I of course Boris's England is the only country doing this
Sorry which other Country provides free school meals when schools are on holiday?
Universial Credit was increased by £20 per week in March to reflect the pandemic, when is that mentioned?
We will soon be at a situation where it will be better for most people to stay at home and not work as the benefits they will be giving up are worth so much.
The situation Pagan2 described was a mum with two kids living in rented accommodation on UC. After her rent and Council Tax are paid she is left with around £250 per week. When Iwe were bringing upour kids we never had anywhere near that level of spare cash after my mortgage, Council Tax, childcare and travelling were taken off. We still live in the same 2 bedroom house. There will be millions of people in this country in similar positions who will not be aware just how generous UC is.
Don`t confuse the issue with facts, we`re ruled by the notorious via social media these days.
"Facts". If UC is as generous as Nerys is claiming then why are MPs awash with factual evidence that the opposite is true?
The post of mine Nerys is referring to this one it includes source url so can go check and tell me what you dispute
unemployed mother with 2 school age kids gets however 409.89 personal benefit 281.25 for the first child 235.83 for the second child 1000£ housing benefit (obviously dependent on area but a low ball estimate for the south east) 100£ council tax support (again conservative estimate)
for a total of 2026.97 which equates to a salary of just over 30k
Whatever rent and council tax support they get will be well short of their outgoings - so the absolute amount is meaningless (unless it takes them above the cap). They'll be using the elements paid for the children to pay the difference on rent and council tax.
As so an effective income the same as a 30k plus salary is well short of their outgoings but the same woman working in a job paying her 30k a year would be able to manage just fine.....not sure I follow your logic there
This is why we have a problem with in-work poverty.
I don't think the solution is it to drive people out of work to an even worse level of poverty so that people in work can feel relatively better.
If we have a poverty problem with people on 30k then where I live (factories and rural) we are all dying in the gutter.
Exactly total bollox and anyone getting equivalent of 30K on benefits is an absolute scandal. Maximum should be the living wage and they should pay tax and NI on it like all workers. Though I suspect for anywhere outside M25 that 1000 housing is fantasy. In Scotland 2 bedroom allowance is circa £400 ish, if single person £350 max.
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it. .
Skewered
We all do it at times, or most of us. I wanted Labour to win (or ideally Lab/LibDem) and allowed it to cloud my view of what was actually happening. On the other hand I correctly bet on the Brexit result and Cameron's 2015 win, on both times because I tried listening properly to what was happening. Putting aside one's prejudices is really hard but has to be done. I am rock certain Biden is going to win big and, with him, the Dems will take the Senate.
The other terrible failing everyone has is normalcy bias. There's no such thing as precedence in betting. Well, that's an exaggeration undoubtedly but the point is that EVENTS change people. The pandemic is a massive global issue and a huge one in the US where at least 1/4 million people have died from it. 2020 seems to be an almost perfect karmic storm. It's quite uncanny how many things have happened to disrupt Trump, from the fiasco in Tulsa to the boats sinking to him catching covid and then allying himself to the very thing he used to fight (privilege) to the VP and his cohort catching it. Every time there has been any attempt to wrestle back the initiative events have taken over. Right now the US is setting daily infection records just as they go to the polls. And you have Trump and his entourage flouting the rules and science.
2020 is NOT 2016 and Joe Biden is NOT Hillary Clinton.
Good post, however I am moved to point out something pertinent -
Until quite recently you were stridently certain of a TRUMP landslide. Many many posts from you along those lines which I had to call "foul" on.
So, you know, I'm glad you've flipped, the more the merrier, but I sense someone who just veers from one extreme to the other, hoping that when the music stops they happen to be sitting in the right chair.
Jon Sopel on R4 this morning was remarking that these Trump/Pence rallies are serving a purpose - they collect contact details from all attendees and ask them if they are registered to vote - and if not, ask them to register, then follow up with voting requests. While some states are (well) past voter registration deadlines, in others you can register up to election day itself.
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
You are gleefully reporting every Trafalgar "poll" as gold dust and ignoring everything else. That does not speak to me as a man who doesn't want Trump to win.
If you were seriously only interested in who might win then you would be balancing the limited pro-Trump signs with the more numerous pro-Biden signs.
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it.
You view everything through the prism of what best suits Boris and if that means 4 more years of the odious Trump then so be it. .
Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016, they now have Biden ahead in Pennsylvania but Trump still ahead in Michigan.
Ignore them at your peril
I am ignoring them and we will see whether that is perilous in a weeks time. I really believe you have shredded your credibility by putting your faith in Trafalgar despite all the evidence circulating about them.
A PB was asking yesterday what we thought of 'Roadkill'.
Here's Simon Heffer's view:
"One doesn’t need to be steeped in the realities of British politics (and I have written about them for 35 years) to discern on the briefest acquaintance that this series is one of the greatest turkeys even in the recent inglorious history of the BBC’s drama department."
(telegraph)
Watched the second episode last night and think not to be severely over-written. It appears to be in some near-future dystopia.
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Apart from VOX pops how do you measure it? It’s not through human contact are you on other messaging sites? One would think it’s obvious but can you prove it?
64,662 and rising signatures petitioning the Senedd over this ruling makes it the biggest ever petition to the Welsh government far exceeding any previous one
Petitions are pretty meaningless unless they translates into votes. There were over 200,000 signatures in Wales about a second EU referendum, and yet there was still a swing towards Conservative at the 2019 election.
You asked for a measure and this in itself is the highest petition submitted to the Senedd requiring the Welsh government to respond
I didn't ask for anything. Someone else asked. I added context. 2% of the country signing a petition is not small in the world of petitions, but petitions are small in the world of... well in the real world.
Comments
Here's Simon Heffer's view:
"One doesn’t need to be steeped in the realities of British politics (and I have written about them for 35 years) to discern on the briefest acquaintance that this series is one of the greatest turkeys even in the recent inglorious history of the BBC’s drama department."
(telegraph)
One would think that what is a bold move by the Welsh Government would be seen as a useful barometer for future management of the pandemic across the other home nations, be that if it works or fails. The assumption that it is doomed to fail because Johnson disagrees with it is somewhat disappointing. For what it's worth, I would have liked to see an extra week.
Until quite recently you were stridently certain of a TRUMP landslide. Many many posts from you along those lines which I had to call "foul" on.
So, you know, I'm glad you've flipped, the more the merrier, but I sense someone who just veers from one extreme to the other, hoping that when the music stops they happen to be sitting in the right chair.
Still think it was strangely priced.