What the MSM have failed to do is to actually produce figures for what being on UC means and how much someone actually gets. What Pagan2 showed yesterday is that for a family living in rented accommodation UC is actually extremely generous and there are certain situations where someone on UC would have more dispoable income than a family on an average salary with average housing costs who are not entitled to anything other than child benefit.
You really do not get it do you
Arguing against Marcus Rashford, a national treasure fighting for poor children, is just wrong on every level and I of course Boris's England is the only country doing this
Sorry which other Country provides free school meals when schools are on holiday?
Universial Credit was increased by £20 per week in March to reflect the pandemic, when is that mentioned?
We will soon be at a situation where it will be better for most people to stay at home and not work as the benefits they will be giving up are worth so much.
The situation Pagan2 described was a mum with two kids living in rented accommodation on UC. After her rent and Council Tax are paid she is left with around £250 per week. When Iwe were bringing upour kids we never had anywhere near that level of spare cash after my mortgage, Council Tax, childcare and travelling were taken off. We still live in the same 2 bedroom house. There will be millions of people in this country in similar positions who will not be aware just how generous UC is.
Don`t confuse the issue with facts, we`re ruled by the notorious via social media these days.
"Facts". If UC is as generous as Nerys is claiming then why are MPs awash with factual evidence that the opposite is true?
The post of mine Nerys is referring to this one it includes source url so can go check and tell me what you dispute
unemployed mother with 2 school age kids gets however 409.89 personal benefit 281.25 for the first child 235.83 for the second child 1000£ housing benefit (obviously dependent on area but a low ball estimate for the south east) 100£ council tax support (again conservative estimate)
for a total of 2026.97 which equates to a salary of just over 30k
Whatever rent and council tax support they get will be well short of their outgoings - so the absolute amount is meaningless (unless it takes them above the cap). They'll be using the elements paid for the children to pay the difference on rent and council tax.
As so an effective income the same as a 30k plus salary is well short of their outgoings but the same woman working in a job paying her 30k a year would be able to manage just fine.....not sure I follow your logic there
This is why we have a problem with in-work poverty.
I don't think the solution is it to drive people out of work to an even worse level of poverty so that people in work can feel relatively better.
If we have a poverty problem with people on 30k then where I live (factories and rural) we are all dying in the gutter.
If that does turn out to be the case it will slightly blunt the Tory argument that Kier Starmer is boring - Rishi Sunak is the dullest most boring front line politician I have seen on the political stage in a long time.
Of course, we're in this situation because First Past The Post creates artificial coalitions of people who really shouldn't be in the same party. I'm a card-carrying Don't Know, but there are people in my party who really should form a splinter Who Cares? party. They cause a lot of trouble for us, and we really want rid of them, but without PR we will never have a Don't Know PM unless we have them on board.
Jasper Fforde books feature the Commomsense Party, main opposition to the Prevailing Wind Party, both of whom are committed to reducing the Stupidity surplus threatening the Nation...
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Apart from VOX pops how do you measure it? It’s not through human contact are you on other messaging sites? One would think it’s obvious but can you prove it?
64,662 and rising signatures petitioning the Senedd over this ruling makes it the biggest ever petition to the Welsh government far exceeding any previous one
What the MSM have failed to do is to actually produce figures for what being on UC means and how much someone actually gets. What Pagan2 showed yesterday is that for a family living in rented accommodation UC is actually extremely generous and there are certain situations where someone on UC would have more dispoable income than a family on an average salary with average housing costs who are not entitled to anything other than child benefit.
You really do not get it do you
Arguing against Marcus Rashford, a national treasure fighting for poor children, is just wrong on every level and I of course Boris's England is the only country doing this
Sorry which other Country provides free school meals when schools are on holiday?
Universial Credit was increased by £20 per week in March to reflect the pandemic, when is that mentioned?
We will soon be at a situation where it will be better for most people to stay at home and not work as the benefits they will be giving up are worth so much.
The situation Pagan2 described was a mum with two kids living in rented accommodation on UC. After her rent and Council Tax are paid she is left with around £250 per week. When Iwe were bringing upour kids we never had anywhere near that level of spare cash after my mortgage, Council Tax, childcare and travelling were taken off. We still live in the same 2 bedroom house. There will be millions of people in this country in similar positions who will not be aware just how generous UC is.
Honestly it is pointless using logic on these people. They are genuinely outraged that people who don't work have slightly less money than those that do.
It's getting to the point where it is a complete waste of time to work if you earn low wages. I think I might join them shortly to be honest.
Good luck with that, enjoy as benefits are cut to the bone when this is all over, we can’t raise taxes, oh no not tax rises for the well off, just soak the feckless benefit claimants.
Can I just double-check my understanding on this? (At a risk of being seen to be stupid.)
"73% of people who have voted voted for Biden (Wisconsin)" actually means that "73% of those that have already voted are known to be affiliated with the Dem Party so are assumed to have voted for Biden".
Is that right? They`re not actually counting now are they?
If that does turn out to be the case it will slightly blunt the Tory argument that Kier Starmer is boring - Rishi Sunak is the dullest most boring front line politician I have seen on the political stage in a long time.
I'm willing to bet that would be good for the Conservatives and bad for Labour. I think there'll be a chunk of the population who would prefer boring competence over flashy stupidity. Starmer would take those votes off Johnson, but perhaps only a minority of them off Sunak. Smartest thing the Conservatives could do right now would be to tip Boris quietly into the bin.
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Nobody here in the Western Vale that I have seen on my socially distanced dog walk seem as exercised as BigG. about the non-essential shopping argument, at any rate.
I have to agree here. When I was watching Sky News on Saturday they were interviewing people in Chepstow, which I think is in Monmouth. You couldn't get a more Tory voting anti welsh governmetn area (possibly apart from Pembs). Why not ask people in NW Wales or the Valleys as well?
Some tosser on Twitter says something, doesn't mean it's true.
If it wasn't true, why would Tesco say it was?
You can ask Tesco why they got it wrong, before they corrected themselves, but get it wrong they did. And this random Twitter tosser is wrong. Sorry, that's just how it is on Twitter, people say things that aren't true. Hope this has helped you a little.
You have no idea how angry people are in Wales as scores of photographs show huge sections of supermarkets taped off even preventing the sale of children's clothes and many more items
Go in any supermarket in Wales and look on in incredulity and of course it is Welsh shopper's experiences that are causing this anger
And this is not just on twitter it is featuring on all Welsh TV news programmes, local newspapers, and every day conversations
Drakeford was a virtual unknown politician until now but he has become infamous overnight
How do you know? You should be locked down like the rest of us, not galavanting around Asda. Shame!
I am allowed to do essential food shopping and pick up prescriptions
So am I, but I took the precaution of stocking enough essentials to avoid having to go out during lockdown. It seemed a sensible thing to do in order to help the lockdown work.
You are only three days in! A bit of forward planning might be helpful for the January fire break.
One of the problems is the sampling period 13th-21st October. It would be a mistake to take those figures, apply them to the current reported early vote figures for those States, and then practice your Trump-loses-by-a-landslide dance.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
HYUFD has stated on here that Nate Silver should take tips from him. HYUFD is openly contemptuous of Nate Silver based on his perfomance in one election. Who are we mere mortals to disagree? I mean, HYUFD once found a hitherto unknown sea route into the Persian Gulf avoiding the Straits of Hormuz by going round the Cape of Good Hope - somehing that had eluded millenia of navigators. How can we compete?
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
You are gleefully reporting every Trafalgar "poll" as gold dust and ignoring everything else. That does not speak to me as a man who doesn't want Trump to win.
If you were seriously only interested in who might win then you would be balancing the limited pro-Trump signs with the more numerous pro-Biden signs.
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it.
You view everything through the prism of what best suits Boris and if that means 4 more years of the odious Trump then so be it. .
To be fair I think even HYUFD has realised Boris Johnson is crap, he will be thinking about who takes over from Bozo. For really tribal Tories, Republican presidents are generally more pro-UK. Trump, however is about as principled as our version, the afore mentioned Boris Johnson. He will only be pro-UK if it suits his agenda, and as for any wonderful trade deal - forget it. A Trump administration will absolutely shaft us in every way possible.
Can I just double-check my understanding on this? (At a risk of being seen to be stupid.)
"73% of people who have voted voted for Biden (Wisconsin)" actually means that "73% of those that have already voted are known to be affiliated with the Dem Party so are assumed to have voted for Biden".
Is that right? They`re not actually counting now are they?
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
What's sauce for the Welsh 'Sturgeon has completely misread the public mood' gander..
Can I just double-check my understanding on this? (At a risk of being seen to be stupid.)
"73% of people who have voted voted for Biden (Wisconsin)" actually means that "73% of those that have already voted are known to be affiliated with the Dem Party so are assumed to have voted for Biden".
Is that right? They`re not actually counting now are they?
There's no real party affiliation in Wisconsin. I assume Yougov just asks those that have already voted how they voted.
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Apart from VOX pops how do you measure it? It’s not through human contact are you on other messaging sites? One would think it’s obvious but can you prove it?
64,662 and rising signatures petitioning the Senedd over this ruling makes it the biggest ever petition to the Welsh government far exceeding any previous one
Petitions are pretty meaningless unless they translates into votes. There were over 200,000 signatures in Wales about a second EU referendum, and yet there was still a swing towards Conservative at the 2019 election.
Some tosser on Twitter says something, doesn't mean it's true.
If it wasn't true, why would Tesco say it was?
You can ask Tesco why they got it wrong, before they corrected themselves, but get it wrong they did. And this random Twitter tosser is wrong. Sorry, that's just how it is on Twitter, people say things that aren't true. Hope this has helped you a little.
You have no idea how angry people are in Wales as scores of photographs show huge sections of supermarkets taped off even preventing the sale of children's clothes and many more items
Go in any supermarket in Wales and look on in incredulity and of course it is Welsh shopper's experiences that are causing this anger
And this is not just on twitter it is featuring on all Welsh TV news programmes, local newspapers, and every day conversations
Drakeford was a virtual unknown politician until now but he has become infamous overnight
How do you know? You should be locked down like the rest of us, not galavanting around Asda. Shame!
I am allowed to do essential food shopping and pick up prescriptions
So am I, but I took the precaution of stocking enough essentials to avoid having to go out during lockdown. It seemed a sensible thing to do in order to help the lockdown work.
You are only three days in! A bit of forward planning might be helpful for the January fire break.
I receive a text this am my prescription is ready to collect - how do I forward plan that
Can I just double-check my understanding on this? (At a risk of being seen to be stupid.)
"73% of people who have voted voted for Biden (Wisconsin)" actually means that "73% of those that have already voted are known to be affiliated with the Dem Party so are assumed to have voted for Biden".
Is that right? They`re not actually counting now are they?
I think this is a poll (effectively an exit poll, since it's of people who say they've already voted).
I don't think any states will be revealing any actual vote counts (as in how many votes each candidate got) until polling day.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
What the MSM have failed to do is to actually produce figures for what being on UC means and how much someone actually gets. What Pagan2 showed yesterday is that for a family living in rented accommodation UC is actually extremely generous and there are certain situations where someone on UC would have more dispoable income than a family on an average salary with average housing costs who are not entitled to anything other than child benefit.
You really do not get it do you
Arguing against Marcus Rashford, a national treasure fighting for poor children, is just wrong on every level and I of course Boris's England is the only country doing this
Sorry which other Country provides free school meals when schools are on holiday?
Universial Credit was increased by £20 per week in March to reflect the pandemic, when is that mentioned?
We will soon be at a situation where it will be better for most people to stay at home and not work as the benefits they will be giving up are worth so much.
The situation Pagan2 described was a mum with two kids living in rented accommodation on UC. After her rent and Council Tax are paid she is left with around £250 per week. When Iwe were bringing upour kids we never had anywhere near that level of spare cash after my mortgage, Council Tax, childcare and travelling were taken off. We still live in the same 2 bedroom house. There will be millions of people in this country in similar positions who will not be aware just how generous UC is.
Don`t confuse the issue with facts, we`re ruled by the notorious via social media these days.
"Facts". If UC is as generous as Nerys is claiming then why are MPs awash with factual evidence that the opposite is true?
The post of mine Nerys is referring to this one it includes source url so can go check and tell me what you dispute
unemployed mother with 2 school age kids gets however 409.89 personal benefit 281.25 for the first child 235.83 for the second child 1000£ housing benefit (obviously dependent on area but a low ball estimate for the south east) 100£ council tax support (again conservative estimate)
for a total of 2026.97 which equates to a salary of just over 30k
Whatever rent and council tax support they get will be well short of their outgoings - so the absolute amount is meaningless (unless it takes them above the cap). They'll be using the elements paid for the children to pay the difference on rent and council tax.
As so an effective income the same as a 30k plus salary is well short of their outgoings but the same woman working in a job paying her 30k a year would be able to manage just fine.....not sure I follow your logic there
This is why we have a problem with in-work poverty.
I don't think the solution is it to drive people out of work to an even worse level of poverty so that people in work can feel relatively better.
If we have a poverty problem with people on 30k then where I live (factories and rural) we are all dying in the gutter.
The figures are not mine, but for a very high rent area in the South-East, deliberately chosen to encourage you to draw that conclusion.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
You are gleefully reporting every Trafalgar "poll" as gold dust and ignoring everything else. That does not speak to me as a man who doesn't want Trump to win.
If you were seriously only interested in who might win then you would be balancing the limited pro-Trump signs with the more numerous pro-Biden signs.
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it.
You view everything through the prism of what best suits Boris and if that means 4 more years of the odious Trump then so be it. .
Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016, they now have Biden ahead in Pennsylvania but Trump still ahead in Michigan.
Prediction: Biden to fall a little short of the polls, but still to post +6-7 PV and a decent ECV victory. It will be close enough early on for Trump to make some declaration of success, but that will be swept away relatively quickly.
There's so little in any of the supplementary polling to indicate a possible polling fail, that I can't see beyond a middling prediction, and I have opted gor probably the lowest Biden result that I can make a sensible case for.
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
You are gleefully reporting every Trafalgar "poll" as gold dust and ignoring everything else. That does not speak to me as a man who doesn't want Trump to win.
If you were seriously only interested in who might win then you would be balancing the limited pro-Trump signs with the more numerous pro-Biden signs.
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it.
You view everything through the prism of what best suits Boris and if that means 4 more years of the odious Trump then so be it. .
Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016, they now have Biden ahead in Pennsylvania but Trump still ahead in Michigan.
Some tosser on Twitter says something, doesn't mean it's true.
If it wasn't true, why would Tesco say it was?
You can ask Tesco why they got it wrong, before they corrected themselves, but get it wrong they did. And this random Twitter tosser is wrong. Sorry, that's just how it is on Twitter, people say things that aren't true. Hope this has helped you a little.
You have no idea how angry people are in Wales as scores of photographs show huge sections of supermarkets taped off even preventing the sale of children's clothes and many more items
Go in any supermarket in Wales and look on in incredulity and of course it is Welsh shopper's experiences that are causing this anger
And this is not just on twitter it is featuring on all Welsh TV news programmes, local newspapers, and every day conversations
Drakeford was a virtual unknown politician until now but he has become infamous overnight
How do you know? You should be locked down like the rest of us, not galavanting around Asda. Shame!
I am allowed to do essential food shopping and pick up prescriptions
So am I, but I took the precaution of stocking enough essentials to avoid having to go out during lockdown. It seemed a sensible thing to do in order to help the lockdown work.
You are only three days in! A bit of forward planning might be helpful for the January fire break.
Yup did the same. Reality is we are fine for now.
However, that’s no use if something unexpected happens. I’m not planning on buying a washing machine because I’m assuming it won’t break. If it does, it’s essential.
And I’m lucky enough to have had the cash to plan, space to store, and internet access.
Meanwhile in the South Pacific Jeff Bezos polishes the Welsh gold taps on his Nimitz aircraft carrier sized yacht.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New Hampshire is Trump's best chance of a pickup, he had a big well attended rally there yesterday, New Hampshire only voted for Hillary by 0.37% while Minnesota voted for Hillary by 1.52% and George W Bush won New Hampshire in 2000, the last Republican to win Minnesota was Nixon in 1972
'Why should a government decide what is essential for someone and why say supermarkets have discretion thereby putting supermarket staff in an invidious position
Can I just double-check my understanding on this? (At a risk of being seen to be stupid.)
"73% of people who have voted voted for Biden (Wisconsin)" actually means that "73% of those that have already voted are known to be affiliated with the Dem Party so are assumed to have voted for Biden".
Is that right? They`re not actually counting now are they?
There's no real party affiliation in Wisconsin. I assume Yougov just asks those that have already voted how they voted.
Then there is an element of finger-in-the-air about these figures. They don`t say how many respondents they are extrapolating from. The figures are presented as though they are straight facts.
The thing that worries me most about the polls is how they select the sample. How many libertarian-type Trumpers are amenable to respond to such surveys? I know that pollsters correct for such things but still...
How are pollsters working where there is party affiliation?
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Apart from VOX pops how do you measure it? It’s not through human contact are you on other messaging sites? One would think it’s obvious but can you prove it?
64,662 and rising signatures petitioning the Senedd over this ruling makes it the biggest ever petition to the Welsh government far exceeding any previous one
Petitions are pretty meaningless unless they translates into votes. There were over 200,000 signatures in Wales about a second EU referendum, and yet there was still a swing towards Conservative at the 2019 election.
You asked for a measure and this in itself is the highest petition submitted to the Senedd requiring the Welsh government to respond
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Nobody here in the Western Vale that I have seen on my socially distanced dog walk seem as exercised as BigG. about the non-essential shopping argument, at any rate.
I have to agree here. When I was watching Sky News on Saturday they were interviewing people in Chepstow, which I think is in Monmouth. You couldn't get a more Tory voting anti welsh governmetn area (possibly apart from Pembs). Why not ask people in NW Wales or the Valleys as well?
Chepstow being the nearest Welsh place to London may be a factor?
OK, I'm going to make a prediction. Trafalgar's final polls will be closer to the herd, and will show a Trump win by about 2% in the tipping point state, so he just squeaks the Electoral College. States not needed to win the electoral college will be a couple of % to the Trump side of the herd.
I see the rigorous psephological metric of rally size is now being deployed. Looking forward to seeing the the size of the SCon rallies in April-May of next year so I can really see what's happening in Scotland.
Just out of interest does Turkey have a FTA with the EU?
It has a customs union
Once the UK leaves the EU, the SM and CU it will be the least linked to the EU of any European nation even if it gets a FTA outside of Russia and a few ex nations of the USSR and Yugoslavia
Just out of interest does Turkey have a FTA with the EU?
It has a customs union
Once the UK leaves the EU, the SM and CU it will be the least linked to the EU of any European nation even if it gets a FTA outside of Russia and a few ex nations of the USSR and Yugoslavia
I see the rigorous psephological metric of rally size is now being deployed. Looking forward to seeing the the size of the SCon rallies in April-May of next year so I can really see what's happening in Scotland.
Salmond certainly got big rallies in 2011 when he won a majority, Sturgeon rather less so in 2017
Can I just double-check my understanding on this? (At a risk of being seen to be stupid.)
"73% of people who have voted voted for Biden (Wisconsin)" actually means that "73% of those that have already voted are known to be affiliated with the Dem Party so are assumed to have voted for Biden".
Is that right? They`re not actually counting now are they?
There's no real party affiliation in Wisconsin. I assume Yougov just asks those that have already voted how they voted.
Then there is an element of finger-in-the-air about these figures. They don`t say how many respondents they are extrapolating from. The figures are presented as though they are straight facts.
The thing that worries me most about the polls is how they select the sample. How many libertarian-type Trumpers are amenable to respond to such surveys? I know that pollsters correct for such things but still...
How are pollsters working where there is party affiliation?
FWIW several of the right-libertarian types in my twitters say they're voting for Kanye...
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it. .
Skewered
We all do it at times, or most of us. I wanted Labour to win (or ideally Lab/LibDem) and allowed it to cloud my view of what was actually happening. On the other hand I correctly bet on the Brexit result and Cameron's 2015 win, on both times because I tried listening properly to what was happening. Putting aside one's prejudices is really hard but has to be done. I am rock certain Biden is going to win big and, with him, the Dems will take the Senate.
The other terrible failing everyone has is normalcy bias. There's no such thing as precedence in betting. Well, that's an exaggeration undoubtedly but the point is that EVENTS change people. The pandemic is a massive global issue and a huge one in the US where at least 1/4 million people have died from it. 2020 seems to be an almost perfect karmic storm. It's quite uncanny how many things have happened to disrupt Trump, from the fiasco in Tulsa to the boats sinking to him catching covid and then allying himself to the very thing he used to fight (privilege) to the VP and his cohort catching it. Every time there has been any attempt to wrestle back the initiative events have taken over. Right now the US is setting daily infection records just as they go to the polls. And you have Trump and his entourage flouting the rules and science.
2020 is NOT 2016 and Joe Biden is NOT Hillary Clinton.
If you forget to vote by post, can you turn up on the day and drop the vote in a ballot box, as you can in Britain?
Generally, yes.
For example, NC - https://carolinapublicpress.org/37245/faq-voting-nc-2020/ To mail your ballot back to your county board of elections, you’ll need your own stamp. To drop your ballot off in person, go to your county’s board of elections office before 5 p.m. on Election Day or drop it off at an early voting site in your county. You can also drop off a ballot for your spouse, sibling, parent, grandparent, child, grandchild, mother-in-law, father-in-law, daughter-in-law, son-in-law, stepparent, stepchild or legal guardian and vice versa. It is illegal for you to drop off anyone else’s ballot or for anyone else to drop off yours.
You will need a witness to sign your ballot envelope even if you return it in person. You will need to wait in line of you return your ballot at an early voting site...
But court decisions Monday and Tuesday from both state and federal appellate courts gave county boards of election the freedom to act.
All of the 10,000 voters who had errors on their absentee-by-mail ballots are likely to hear from their county boards of election by the end of this week. The boards will either accept the ballots, ask voters to sign a letter of certification as a “cure” for the error or tell voters that they will have to vote a new ballot...
What the MSM have failed to do is to actually produce figures for what being on UC means and how much someone actually gets. What Pagan2 showed yesterday is that for a family living in rented accommodation UC is actually extremely generous and there are certain situations where someone on UC would have more dispoable income than a family on an average salary with average housing costs who are not entitled to anything other than child benefit.
You really do not get it do you
Arguing against Marcus Rashford, a national treasure fighting for poor children, is just wrong on every level and I of course Boris's England is the only country doing this
Sorry which other Country provides free school meals when schools are on holiday?
Universial Credit was increased by £20 per week in March to reflect the pandemic, when is that mentioned?
We will soon be at a situation where it will be better for most people to stay at home and not work as the benefits they will be giving up are worth so much.
The situation Pagan2 described was a mum with two kids living in rented accommodation on UC. After her rent and Council Tax are paid she is left with around £250 per week. When Iwe were bringing upour kids we never had anywhere near that level of spare cash after my mortgage, Council Tax, childcare and travelling were taken off. We still live in the same 2 bedroom house. There will be millions of people in this country in similar positions who will not be aware just how generous UC is.
Don`t confuse the issue with facts, we`re ruled by the notorious via social media these days.
"Facts". If UC is as generous as Nerys is claiming then why are MPs awash with factual evidence that the opposite is true?
The post of mine Nerys is referring to this one it includes source url so can go check and tell me what you dispute
unemployed mother with 2 school age kids gets however 409.89 personal benefit 281.25 for the first child 235.83 for the second child 1000£ housing benefit (obviously dependent on area but a low ball estimate for the south east) 100£ council tax support (again conservative estimate)
for a total of 2026.97 which equates to a salary of just over 30k
Whatever rent and council tax support they get will be well short of their outgoings - so the absolute amount is meaningless (unless it takes them above the cap). They'll be using the elements paid for the children to pay the difference on rent and council tax.
But if those figures are correct, the person on 30k is in the same unhappy position. Doesn't quite add up.
In that situation the person on £30k would get £848.80 UC and £151.67 pm ON TOP of their take home £2003.37 pay. So the earner is £848 pm better off than the unemployed person.
We're all really just subsidising low pay and private landlords.
If we could flick our collective fingers and see the capital and rental value of residential property fall by 30% with no blood I think we would.
It doesn't need an overnight 30% fall though does it... 10 years stagnant values or slight drift would do it. Plenty of policies that could lead to that including:
- CGT on residential property gains (from the point of introduction, tapered in if necessary). - Mandate councils to build houses. - Steeper tax on land banks. - USe it or lose it planning permissions. - Punitive 2nd home council tax rates (again tapered in). - Better tenant protection (against no reason evictions). - Easier planning for property re-purposing (e.g. shops to residential).
That's exactly what we want - a slow steady correction over 10 years. But we don't roll like that here. Housing is viewed as a liquid tradeable store of wealth rather than a place to live. The market gets bid up despite the fundamentals, then it stalls instead of falling since sellers refuse to play ball, thin volumes for a while, then BOOM, the dam breaks, fear trumps greed ... Crash.
Agree with all your ideas and would add Rent Controls.
Amusingly at this point Trump is probably the one who needs (very) high turnout to win.
Yes, though a higher turnout won re-election for Bush II, so is not automatically good for the Democrats, or a sign of the electorate voting for change.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New Hampshire is Trump's best chance of a pickup, he had a big well attended rally there yesterday, New Hampshire only voted for Hillary by 0.37% while Minnesota voted for Hillary by 1.52% and George W Bush won New Hampshire in 2000, the last Republican to win Minnesota was Nixon in 1972
I`m already on New Hampshire as an outside bet for the GOP.
What are your thoughts about Nevada? Available at 4.1. Clinton won in 2016, but, due mainly to demographics, I wonder whether those odds may look to have been a tad generous if Trump does better than is widely thought. May be a decent hedge.
Tim it's an irrelevant question. This is not simply opinion polling anymore. With up to 50% of votes cast they are virtually exit polls. Add to that not mere anecdotes but analysis of actual voting returns in states like North Carolina and Florida and there is no need to be jittery. I have never been so confident going into a betting event. The markets are skewed by normalcy bias from 2016 but, to paraphrase, this is no 2016. The reason Biden is being low key is that he is going to win. What he needs to do more than anything else is stay alive. In other words he must NOT catch covid before Nov 3rd (or Jan 20th for that matter).
The other thing I have been watching is Republicans. It's one of my biggest errors in 2019: not listening to Labour insiders who knew they had lost. The GOP know they've lost this and there's going to be a bloodbath afterwards: a battle royal for the soul of the party.
Are pollsters asking now respondents whether they have already voted ? (Which is not to argue with your point, just curious.)
I see the rigorous psephological metric of rally size is now being deployed. Looking forward to seeing the the size of the SCon rallies in April-May of next year so I can really see what's happening in Scotland.
Salmond certainly got big rallies in 2011 when he won a majority, Sturgeon rather less so in 2017
Can you point me to some record of those big 2011 rallies and less big 2017 ones?
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New H
You see. Right there. The problem.
This isn't about your opinion. Or shouldn't be. Look at the facts. Read the signs. Study the evidence and leave your own opinions out of the conclusions.
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Nobody here in the Western Vale that I have seen on my socially distanced dog walk seem as exercised as BigG. about the non-essential shopping argument, at any rate.
I have to agree here. When I was watching Sky News on Saturday they were interviewing people in Chepstow, which I think is in Monmouth. You couldn't get a more Tory voting anti welsh governmetn area (possibly apart from Pembs). Why not ask people in NW Wales or the Valleys as well?
People are angry about the fire break, and for understandable reasons
Maybe it would have been a good idea to let it run its course and it could be compared to the other systems adopted around the country. If it was seen to fail on its merits, don't adopt it anywhere else. If it fails because the media hijacked it over non essential selling
One of the problems is the sampling period 13th-21st October. It would be a mistake to take those figures, apply them to the current reported early vote figures for those States, and then practice your Trump-loses-by-a-landslide dance.
Is it possible, Big G and others, that the Welsh government policy will be a success and that it will result in greater popularity? Obviously tampons are essential, but notwithstanding the issues about essential/non-essential, the thrust of the policy is to get people to stay at home as much as possible and minimise interactions with others.
I'm interested in Victoria/Melbourne (double the population of Wales), the latter now with zero Covid cases, Yes, the lockdown was harder and longer than the Welsh one, but it has undoubtedly worked. And I imagine the Australians were just as unenthusiastic about the restrictions as the Welsh. And yet now, Victoria/Melbourne politicians seem to be basking in much acclaim as life return to something like normal. Of course, it may be short-lived as the virus will probably re-emerge there, but at least now they know what to do to minimise its spread. I suspect this is the sort of model Drakeford has in mind, though politically he can't go as far as the Australians. It may be that the rest of the UK isn't doing enough, and that Wales (and NI) have a more sensible approach. We shall see.
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Anyone seen any polling on how firebreaker is perceived in Wales?
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New H
You see. Right there. The problem.
This isn't about your opinion. Or shouldn't be. Look at the facts. Read the signs. Study the evidence and leave your own opinions out of the conclusions.
If you had bothered to read my reasoning for that you would have seen that I had
Enthusiasm would be more important if you had say Obama v Romney or McCain as the latter two weren’t so polarizing and utterly loathed by the other side . The argument that an anti vote lacks enthusiasm seems to miss who Biden is running against.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New Hampshire is Trump's best chance of a pickup, he had a big well attended rally there yesterday, New Hampshire only voted for Hillary by 0.37% while Minnesota voted for Hillary by 1.52% and George W Bush won New Hampshire in 2000, the last Republican to win Minnesota was Nixon in 1972
I`m already on New Hampshire as an outside bet for the GOP.
What are your thoughts about Nevada? Available at 4.1. Clinton won in 2016, but, due mainly to demographics, I wonder whether those odds may look to have been a tad generous if Trump does better than is widely thought. May be a decent hedge.
Nevada I think will stay Biden, more suburban around Las Vegas and more Latino than New Hampshire, New Hampshire is overwhelmingly white and largely rural.
Hillary also won Nevada by 2.42% in 2016, again bigger than the 0.37% she won New Hampshire by
What the MSM have failed to do is to actually produce figures for what being on UC means and how much someone actually gets. What Pagan2 showed yesterday is that for a family living in rented accommodation UC is actually extremely generous and there are certain situations where someone on UC would have more dispoable income than a family on an average salary with average housing costs who are not entitled to anything other than child benefit.
You really do not get it do you
Arguing against Marcus Rashford, a national treasure fighting for poor children, is just wrong on every level and I of course Boris's England is the only country doing this
Sorry which other Country provides free school meals when schools are on holiday?
Universial Credit was increased by £20 per week in March to reflect the pandemic, when is that mentioned?
We will soon be at a situation where it will be better for most people to stay at home and not work as the benefits they will be giving up are worth so much.
The situation Pagan2 described was a mum with two kids living in rented accommodation on UC. After her rent and Council Tax are paid she is left with around £250 per week. When Iwe were bringing upour kids we never had anywhere near that level of spare cash after my mortgage, Council Tax, childcare and travelling were taken off. We still live in the same 2 bedroom house. There will be millions of people in this country in similar positions who will not be aware just how generous UC is.
Don`t confuse the issue with facts, we`re ruled by the notorious via social media these days.
"Facts". If UC is as generous as Nerys is claiming then why are MPs awash with factual evidence that the opposite is true?
The post of mine Nerys is referring to this one it includes source url so can go check and tell me what you dispute
unemployed mother with 2 school age kids gets however 409.89 personal benefit 281.25 for the first child 235.83 for the second child 1000£ housing benefit (obviously dependent on area but a low ball estimate for the south east) 100£ council tax support (again conservative estimate)
for a total of 2026.97 which equates to a salary of just over 30k
Whatever rent and council tax support they get will be well short of their outgoings - so the absolute amount is meaningless (unless it takes them above the cap). They'll be using the elements paid for the children to pay the difference on rent and council tax.
As so an effective income the same as a 30k plus salary is well short of their outgoings but the same woman working in a job paying her 30k a year would be able to manage just fine.....not sure I follow your logic there
This is why we have a problem with in-work poverty.
I don't think the solution is it to drive people out of work to an even worse level of poverty so that people in work can feel relatively better.
If we have a poverty problem with people on 30k then where I live (factories and rural) we are all dying in the gutter.
The figures are not mine, but for a very high rent area in the South-East, deliberately chosen to encourage you to draw that conclusion.
They weren't chosen deliberately for anything they were chosen because its where I happen to live and could easily locate data for hla etc.
The point remains for an unemployed mother of 2 school age children she will have all or the vast majority of her rent paid, same with council tax and then have around 250£ a week cash in hand on top of that. Even here in the south east it is possible to find a house to rent that is both reasonable in terms of habitability and either less than the hla maximum or at most 100 top up above the maxium. So say 100 a month top up for rent, 100 for gas and electric. That leaves 800 a month for food clothes for an adult of 2 children I dont see that as a poor sum.
When my son was young he had friends that you could tell were underfed, the thing you noticed though were the parents always had their luxuries. I have friends currently on UC who complain about poverty now but try pointing out to them they don't need the latest greatest phone and their are much better ways to spend their money than on a 50£ a month phone contract
Some tosser on Twitter says something, doesn't mean it's true.
If it wasn't true, why would Tesco say it was?
You can ask Tesco why they got it wrong, before they corrected themselves, but get it wrong they did. And this random Twitter tosser is wrong. Sorry, that's just how it is on Twitter, people say things that aren't true. Hope this has helped you a little.
You have no idea how angry people are in Wales as scores of photographs show huge sections of supermarkets taped off even preventing the sale of children's clothes and many more items
Go in any supermarket in Wales and look on in incredulity and of course it is Welsh shopper's experiences that are causing this anger
And this is not just on twitter it is featuring on all Welsh TV news programmes, local newspapers, and every day conversations
Drakeford was a virtual unknown politician until now but he has become infamous overnight
How do you know? You should be locked down like the rest of us, not galavanting around Asda. Shame!
I am allowed to do essential food shopping and pick up prescriptions
So am I, but I took the precaution of stocking enough essentials to avoid having to go out during lockdown. It seemed a sensible thing to do in order to help the lockdown work.
You are only three days in! A bit of forward planning might be helpful for the January fire break.
Yup did the same. Reality is we are fine for now.
However, that’s no use if something unexpected happens. I’m not planning on buying a washing machine because I’m assuming it won’t break. If it does, it’s essential.
And I’m lucky enough to have had the cash to plan, space to store, and internet access.
Meanwhile in the South Pacific Jeff Bezos polishes the Welsh gold taps on his Nimitz aircraft carrier sized yacht.
Indeed, I am in a similarly fortunate position.
Jeff does indeed polish his Welsh gold taps, and I for one am grateful for the contra purchase from our little principality. I only hope Ken Murphy spends the spoils from his Welsh Government U turn on something nice from Wales too.
Amusingly at this point Trump is probably the one who needs (very) high turnout to win.
The Pennsylvania figure is absolutely ludicrous - I know relative to other states not many people have voted but I almost cannot believe it.
As it stand in Penn if Early voting matched 2016 per County final vote distribution Biden is 92,000 votes ahead. If it matched 2016 statewide percentages Trump should be 10,000 votes ahead.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New Hampshire is Trump's best chance of a pickup, he had a big well attended rally there yesterday, New Hampshire only voted for Hillary by 0.37% while Minnesota voted for Hillary by 1.52% and George W Bush won New Hampshire in 2000, the last Republican to win Minnesota was Nixon in 1972
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
You are gleefully reporting every Trafalgar "poll" as gold dust and ignoring everything else. That does not speak to me as a man who doesn't want Trump to win.
If you were seriously only interested in who might win then you would be balancing the limited pro-Trump signs with the more numerous pro-Biden signs.
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it.
You view everything through the prism of what best suits Boris and if that means 4 more years of the odious Trump then so be it. .
Not quite imo. Here's my "armchair psych" -
@HYUFD would vote Biden if he were American and he does not want Trump to win from a detached political perspective. He recognizes that he is utterly unfit for office.
BUT he has invested a whole load of "capital" on here in insisting - against the weight of evidence - that the election will be very close and that Trump is the more likely winner, and being right (in this case) is more important to him than who gets to be the leader of a foreign country.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New Hampshire is Trump's best chance of a pickup, he had a big well attended rally there yesterday, New Hampshire only voted for Hillary by 0.37% while Minnesota voted for Hillary by 1.52% and George W Bush won New Hampshire in 2000, the last Republican to win Minnesota was Nixon in 1972
I`m already on New Hampshire as an outside bet for the GOP.
What are your thoughts about Nevada? Available at 4.1. Clinton won in 2016, but, due mainly to demographics, I wonder whether those odds may look to have been a tad generous if Trump does better than is widely thought. May be a decent hedge.
Tim it's an irrelevant question. This is not simply opinion polling anymore. With up to 50% of votes cast they are virtually exit polls. Add to that not mere anecdotes but analysis of actual voting returns in states like North Carolina and Florida and there is no need to be jittery. I have never been so confident going into a betting event. The markets are skewed by normalcy bias from 2016 but, to paraphrase, this is no 2016. The reason Biden is being low key is that he is going to win. What he needs to do more than anything else is stay alive. In other words he must NOT catch covid before Nov 3rd (or Jan 20th for that matter).
The other thing I have been watching is Republicans. It's one of my biggest errors in 2019: not listening to Labour insiders who knew they had lost. The GOP know they've lost this and there's going to be a bloodbath afterwards: a battle royal for the soul of the party.
Are pollsters asking now respondents whether they have already voted ? (Which is not to argue with your point, just curious.)
It is with fear and trepidation I am about to get in the car and go for my prescription wondering if the neighbours will report me the Stasi Welsh government for having the temerity to go out
Ridiculous hyperbole from you again, and offensive to those innocent souls murdered by the actual Stasi.
Feelings are running very high in Wales just now and since when was satire banned
Fee!ings are running very high in Big_G_Northwales I think you mean.
You clearly have no idea how this has cut through in Wales
Nobody here in the Western Vale that I have seen on my socially distanced dog walk seem as exercised as BigG. about the non-essential shopping argument, at any rate.
I have to agree here. When I was watching Sky News on Saturday they were interviewing people in Chepstow, which I think is in Monmouth. You couldn't get a more Tory voting anti welsh governmetn area (possibly apart from Pembs). Why not ask people in NW Wales or the Valleys as well?
Chepstow being the nearest Welsh place to London may be a factor?
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New Hampshire is Trump's best chance of a pickup, he had a big well attended rally there yesterday, New Hampshire only voted for Hillary by 0.37% while Minnesota voted for Hillary by 1.52% and George W Bush won New Hampshire in 2000, the last Republican to win Minnesota was Nixon in 1972
Biden's lead is now 11% in today's USC Dornsife. You can see the trend, or lack of. Flat as owt.
This represents that actual polling gap on election day for the gazillions of votes already having been cast in swing states.
Also, if either campaign had an October surprise card up their sleeve, they'd have played it three weeks ago.
Wasn't the Hunter Biden emails thing supposed to be that? I still don't understand that story and it appears to have faded away.
The canary was singing, unfortunately it was down a coal mine.
with its hands down its own pants.
Here comes the blind commissioner, they've got him in a trance One hand is tied to the tight-rope walker, the other is in his pants And the riot squad they're restless, they need somewhere to go As Lady and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it. .
Skewered
We all do it at times, or most of us. I wanted Labour to win (or ideally Lab/LibDem) and allowed it to cloud my view of what was actually happening. On the other hand I correctly bet on the Brexit result and Cameron's 2015 win, on both times because I tried listening properly to what was happening. Putting aside one's prejudices is really hard but has to be done. I am rock certain Biden is going to win big and, with him, the Dems will take the Senate.
The other terrible failing everyone has is normalcy bias. There's no such thing as precedence in betting. Well, that's an exaggeration undoubtedly but the point is that EVENTS change people. The pandemic is a massive global issue and a huge one in the US where at least 1/4 million people have died from it. 2020 seems to be an almost perfect karmic storm. It's quite uncanny how many things have happened to disrupt Trump, from the fiasco in Tulsa to the boats sinking to him catching covid and then allying himself to the very thing he used to fight (privilege) to the VP and his cohort catching it. Every time there has been any attempt to wrestle back the initiative events have taken over. Right now the US is setting daily infection records just as they go to the polls. And you have Trump and his entourage flouting the rules and science.
2020 is NOT 2016 and Joe Biden is NOT Hillary Clinton.
Less specific than your examples. Covid has A) Set back and taken the focus away from the economy. Put the focus on health. C) Made Seniors confront their mortality. When death is a present danger, other issues fade away. D) More broadly shown that far from being rugged, self-sufficient individualists, Americans need each other as much as anyone else. E) The virus doesn't care about the usual Trump playbook. F) The dawning realisation of all this has made Trump even more Trump like in his fury. Which turns the uninitiated off.
He still might squeak it. But I'd be surprised. Literally nothing has gone for him this year.
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
You are gleefully reporting every Trafalgar "poll" as gold dust and ignoring everything else. That does not speak to me as a man who doesn't want Trump to win.
If you were seriously only interested in who might win then you would be balancing the limited pro-Trump signs with the more numerous pro-Biden signs.
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it.
You view everything through the prism of what best suits Boris and if that means 4 more years of the odious Trump then so be it. .
Not quite imo. Here's my "armchair psych" -
@HYUFD would vote Biden if he were American and he does not want Trump to win from a detached political perspective. He recognizes that he is utterly unfit for office.
BUT he has invested a whole load of "capital" on here in insisting - against the weight of evidence - that the election will be very close and that Trump is the more likely winner, and being right (in this case) is more important to him than who gets to be the leader of a foreign country.
He is therefore rooting for a Trump win.
Well in the sense that I am not American and this is a betting site yes, as you say I would not vote for Trump if I was American but given the overwhelming hostility on here sometimes to anybody who doubts Biden will not win comfortably if Trump did win there would inevitably be a certain amount of 'I told you so'.
Going against the PBherd did not do me too much harm on either Boris' chances of becoming Tory leader and PM or even GE19
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
You are gleefully reporting every Trafalgar "poll" as gold dust and ignoring everything else. That does not speak to me as a man who doesn't want Trump to win.
If you were seriously only interested in who might win then you would be balancing the limited pro-Trump signs with the more numerous pro-Biden signs.
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it.
You view everything through the prism of what best suits Boris and if that means 4 more years of the odious Trump then so be it. .
Not quite imo. Here's my "armchair psych" -
@HYUFD would vote Biden if he were American and he does not want Trump to win from a detached political perspective. He recognizes that he is utterly unfit for office.
BUT he has invested a whole load of "capital" on here in insisting - against the weight of evidence - that the election will be very close and that Trump is the more likely winner, and being right (in this case) is more important to him than who gets to be the leader of a foreign country.
He is therefore rooting for a Trump win.
Well in the sense that I am not American and this is a betting site yes, as you say I would not vote for Trump if I was American but given the overwhelming hostility on here sometimes to anybody who doubts Biden will not win comfortably if Trump did win there would inevitably be a certain amount of 'I told you so'.
Going against the PBherd did not do me too much harm on either Boris' chances of becoming Tory leader and PM or even GE19
Oh get a grip. Nobody is giving you hostility because you think Trump will win. You are getting hostility because of your arrogance.
538 now reckons Minnesota will be closer than Michigan. A far cry from @HYUFD's prediction.
I disagree, Minnesota has not voted Republican since 1972 it will still go for Biden though I think Wisconsin will be more likely to go Trump than Michigan I think both are more likely to go Trump than Minnesota.
We all know you disagree.
In my opinion New Hampshire is Trump's best chance of a pickup, he had a big well attended rally there yesterday, New Hampshire only voted for Hillary by 0.37% while Minnesota voted for Hillary by 1.52% and George W Bush won New Hampshire in 2000, the last Republican to win Minnesota was Nixon in 1972
I`m already on New Hampshire as an outside bet for the GOP.
What are your thoughts about Nevada? Available at 4.1. Clinton won in 2016, but, due mainly to demographics, I wonder whether those odds may look to have been a tad generous if Trump does better than is widely thought. May be a decent hedge.
You best hedges are still, I think, in the Betfair exchange EV markets. The narrow Biden loss/narrow Trump wins are both somewhere around 6/1 from memory. The Biden one even covers a tie (the corresponding Trump one starts at 270).
If Mitt Romney won North Carolina Trump certainly will and especially now African Americans have swung to him since 2016
Are you still maintaining the fiction that you want Biden to win because the tone of every post you write on the US election suggests otherwise?
I have said I would have voted for Hillary too in 2016 and did so at the time, that does not change the fact Hillary lost, in fact the last Republican I would have voted for was George W Bush in 2000.
However it seems that unlike some on here I can distinguish between who I would vote for and who I think will win which is what this site is supposed to be about and as I showed last night Trump's vote has not disappeared and very rarely does the candidate with the most energy amongst their supporters lose
You are gleefully reporting every Trafalgar "poll" as gold dust and ignoring everything else. That does not speak to me as a man who doesn't want Trump to win.
If you were seriously only interested in who might win then you would be balancing the limited pro-Trump signs with the more numerous pro-Biden signs.
My guess is that you are a very tribal Tory and you have figured, probably correctly, that a Trump win would suit Johnson best and so that is what you secretly hoping for but are too embarrassed to admit it.
You view everything through the prism of what best suits Boris and if that means 4 more years of the odious Trump then so be it. .
Not quite imo. Here's my "armchair psych" -
@HYUFD would vote Biden if he were American and he does not want Trump to win from a detached political perspective. He recognizes that he is utterly unfit for office.
BUT he has invested a whole load of "capital" on here in insisting - against the weight of evidence - that the election will be very close and that Trump is the more likely winner, and being right (in this case) is more important to him than who gets to be the leader of a foreign country.
He is therefore rooting for a Trump win.
Well in the sense that I am not American and this is a betting site yes, as you say I would not vote for Trump if I was American but given the overwhelming hostility on here sometimes to anybody who doubts Biden will not win comfortably if Trump did win there would inevitably be a certain amount of 'I told you so'.
Going against the PBherd did not do me too much harm on either Boris' chances of becoming Tory leader and PM or even GE19
If Trump narrowly wins the ECV but loses the popular vote, I would warmly pat you on the back HYUFD. You would deserve your bragging rights. Though may I suggest that you don`t extend this to boosting Trafalgar who would merely have hit lucky twice.
Comments
Where we are in Wales one polling station serves about 2000.
"73% of people who have voted voted for Biden (Wisconsin)" actually means that "73% of those that have already voted are known to be affiliated with the Dem Party so are assumed to have voted for Biden".
Is that right? They`re not actually counting now are they?
Your original posting said that the WG had designatred tampons as inesssential (till you corrected, tbf.).
You are only three days in! A bit of forward planning might be helpful for the January fire break.
I don't think any states will be revealing any actual vote counts (as in how many votes each candidate got) until polling day.
https://www.harrisvotes.com/Docs/VotingInfo/PollingLocations_en-US.pdf
Ignore them at your peril
There's so little in any of the supplementary polling to indicate a possible polling fail, that I can't see beyond a middling prediction, and I have opted gor probably the lowest Biden result that I can make a sensible case for.
However, that’s no use if something unexpected happens. I’m not planning on buying a washing machine because I’m assuming it won’t break. If it does, it’s essential.
And I’m lucky enough to have had the cash to plan, space to store, and internet access.
Meanwhile in the South Pacific Jeff Bezos polishes the Welsh gold taps on his Nimitz aircraft carrier sized yacht.
Calling this stupid is an insult to stupid people everywhere.
Jourrnalist
'Why should a government decide what is essential for someone and why say supermarkets have discretion thereby putting supermarket staff in an invidious position
You are just adding to the confusion'
The thing that worries me most about the polls is how they select the sample. How many libertarian-type Trumpers are amenable to respond to such surveys? I know that pollsters correct for such things but still...
How are pollsters working where there is party affiliation?
Headline figure:
Biden 47%
Trump 34%
Another Candidate 3%
Would Not Vote 8%
Don't Know 8%
We all do it at times, or most of us. I wanted Labour to win (or ideally Lab/LibDem) and allowed it to cloud my view of what was actually happening. On the other hand I correctly bet on the Brexit result and Cameron's 2015 win, on both times because I tried listening properly to what was happening. Putting aside one's prejudices is really hard but has to be done. I am rock certain Biden is going to win big and, with him, the Dems will take the Senate.
The other terrible failing everyone has is normalcy bias. There's no such thing as precedence in betting. Well, that's an exaggeration undoubtedly but the point is that EVENTS change people. The pandemic is a massive global issue and a huge one in the US where at least 1/4 million people have died from it. 2020 seems to be an almost perfect karmic storm. It's quite uncanny how many things have happened to disrupt Trump, from the fiasco in Tulsa to the boats sinking to him catching covid and then allying himself to the very thing he used to fight (privilege) to the VP and his cohort catching it. Every time there has been any attempt to wrestle back the initiative events have taken over. Right now the US is setting daily infection records just as they go to the polls. And you have Trump and his entourage flouting the rules and science.
2020 is NOT 2016 and Joe Biden is NOT Hillary Clinton.
For example, NC -
https://carolinapublicpress.org/37245/faq-voting-nc-2020/
To mail your ballot back to your county board of elections, you’ll need your own stamp. To drop your ballot off in person, go to your county’s board of elections office before 5 p.m. on Election Day or drop it off at an early voting site in your county. You can also drop off a ballot for your spouse, sibling, parent, grandparent, child, grandchild, mother-in-law, father-in-law, daughter-in-law, son-in-law, stepparent, stepchild or legal guardian and vice versa. It is illegal for you to drop off anyone else’s ballot or for anyone else to drop off yours.
You will need a witness to sign your ballot envelope even if you return it in person. You will need to wait in line of you return your ballot at an early voting site...
While looking up which, I noted this:
Court decisions let NC counties process absentee-by-mail ballots again
https://carolinapublicpress.org/38939/counting-resumes-court-decisions-let-nc-counties-process-absentee-by-mail-ballots-again/
...For almost three weeks, counties were not able to do anything with absentee-by-mail ballots that came in with an error on the return envelope. The ballots just sat in locked boxes, holding voters in limbo.
But court decisions Monday and Tuesday from both state and federal appellate courts gave county boards of election the freedom to act.
All of the 10,000 voters who had errors on their absentee-by-mail ballots are likely to hear from their county boards of election by the end of this week. The boards will either accept the ballots, ask voters to sign a letter of certification as a “cure” for the error or tell voters that they will have to vote a new ballot...
Isn't Turkey in a Customs Union with the EU?
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/turkey/
Agree with all your ideas and would add Rent Controls.
and then add...
and then assume...
it gets Trump close enough so he could win narrowly
What are your thoughts about Nevada? Available at 4.1. Clinton won in 2016, but, due mainly to demographics, I wonder whether those odds may look to have been a tad generous if Trump does better than is widely thought. May be a decent hedge.
* Another candidate, Would not vote, Don't know = shy Trump supporters
(Which is not to argue with your point, just curious.)
This isn't about your opinion. Or shouldn't be. Look at the facts. Read the signs. Study the evidence and leave your own opinions out of the conclusions.
And also the number of early voting places differs from that on election day.
Maybe it would have been a good idea to let it run its course and it could be compared to the other systems adopted around the country. If it was seen to fail on its merits, don't adopt it anywhere else. If it fails because the media hijacked it over non essential selling I was careful to add "potential".
I'm interested in Victoria/Melbourne (double the population of Wales), the latter now with zero Covid cases, Yes, the lockdown was harder and longer than the Welsh one, but it has undoubtedly worked. And I imagine the Australians were just as unenthusiastic about the restrictions as the Welsh. And yet now, Victoria/Melbourne politicians seem to be basking in much acclaim as life return to something like normal. Of course, it may be short-lived as the virus will probably re-emerge there, but at least now they know what to do to minimise its spread. I suspect this is the sort of model Drakeford has in mind, though politically he can't go as far as the Australians. It may be that the rest of the UK isn't doing enough, and that Wales (and NI) have a more sensible approach. We shall see.
https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1320666515524456448?s=20
Hillary also won Nevada by 2.42% in 2016, again bigger than the 0.37% she won New Hampshire by
The point remains for an unemployed mother of 2 school age children she will have all or the vast majority of her rent paid, same with council tax and then have around 250£ a week cash in hand on top of that. Even here in the south east it is possible to find a house to rent that is both reasonable in terms of habitability and either less than the hla maximum or at most 100 top up above the maxium. So say 100 a month top up for rent, 100 for gas and electric. That leaves 800 a month for food clothes for an adult of 2 children I dont see that as a poor sum.
When my son was young he had friends that you could tell were underfed, the thing you noticed though were the parents always had their luxuries. I have friends currently on UC who complain about poverty now but try pointing out to them they don't need the latest greatest phone and their are much better ways to spend their money than on a 50£ a month phone contract
Jeff does indeed polish his Welsh gold taps, and I for one am grateful for the contra purchase from our little principality. I only hope Ken Murphy spends the spoils from his Welsh Government U turn on something nice from Wales too.
As it stand in Penn if Early voting matched 2016 per County final vote distribution Biden is 92,000 votes ahead. If it matched 2016 statewide percentages Trump should be 10,000 votes ahead.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-endorsement-conservative-new-hampshire-union-leader-newspaper
@HYUFD would vote Biden if he were American and he does not want Trump to win from a detached political perspective. He recognizes that he is utterly unfit for office.
BUT he has invested a whole load of "capital" on here in insisting - against the weight of evidence - that the election will be very close and that Trump is the more likely winner, and being right (in this case) is more important to him than who gets to be the leader of a foreign country.
He is therefore rooting for a Trump win.
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1320433230160535560
Tomorrow's headline - Serco to go into hospital catering.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/smears-against-biden-dont-need-make-any-sense/616824/
https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1320455251175112705?s=20
One hand is tied to the tight-rope walker, the other is in his pants
And the riot squad they're restless, they need somewhere to go
As Lady and I look out tonight, from Desolation Row
A) Set back and taken the focus away from the economy.
C) Made Seniors confront their mortality. When death is a present danger, other issues fade away.
D) More broadly shown that far from being rugged, self-sufficient individualists, Americans need each other as much as anyone else.
E) The virus doesn't care about the usual Trump playbook.
F) The dawning realisation of all this has made Trump even more Trump like in his fury. Which turns the uninitiated off.
He still might squeak it. But I'd be surprised. Literally nothing has gone for him this year.
New thread
Going against the PBherd did not do me too much harm on either Boris' chances of becoming Tory leader and PM or even GE19
The narrow Biden loss/narrow Trump wins are both somewhere around 6/1 from memory. The Biden one even covers a tie (the corresponding Trump one starts at 270).