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Announcing the PB WH2020 election night Zoom “party” – politicalbetting.com

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  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Robert Halfron suggests that Marcus Rashford and Boris Johnson should meet.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54678082

    One knows how not to score own goals, the other is the Prime Minister.
  • Calm down, calm down! It's like you've just entered a Wolverhampton pub and shouted "up the Baggies!"
    Dudeee I am smashed
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    Calm down, calm down! It's like you've just entered a Wolverhampton pub and shouted "up the Baggies!"
    The only good thing WBA have done in recent years, was to sell Steve Bull to Wolves.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    justin124 said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    At a GE I would expect 2% of that Green total to switch to Labour.
    We come to an electoral pact in our household to help achieve that.
    So do you live with 50 (or more!) of your nearest & dearest?
    Every little helps! Last year our vote exchange was in place for the locals and Euros. However for the GE it was clearly a lost cause so no point bothering.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    But Burnham wasn't/ isn't very good either. Granted streets ahead of Corbyn, but would he have beaten May in the postponed 2020 election. I am not sure.
    He would not have beaten Boris most likely last time but he might have beaten May
    Johnson would have remained a failed former FS without GE2017.
    And if Theresa May had remained PM and not delivered Brexit by then Burnham may well have been elected PM last May
    With Cameron's 2015 majority intact she could have completed the Brexit she desired. Johnson would be nowhere to be seen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
    Not in Michigan and Wisconsin with the rulings, and this threatens to be overturned in PA now too.
    The Justices may have to decide whether they want to continue living in a democracy or in Trump's monarchic empire.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    New Scandi drama on BBC4 called DNA.

    Any good?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    Johnson will wait for US election result before no-deal Brexit decision

    Ivan Rogers, former UK ambassador to the EU, says prime minister will think ‘history was going his way’ if Donald Trump is re-elected

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision

    Rogers said: “Several very senior sources in capitals have told me they believe Johnson will await clarity on the presidential election result before finally deciding whether to jump to ‘no deal’ with the EU, or to conclude that this is just too risky with Biden heading for the White House, and hence live with some highly suboptimal (for Johnson) skinny free-trade agreement.”


    ...“I don’t think either Biden or his core team are anti-British, but I think they are unimpressed by both Johnson and his top team,” he said.

    “They believe him to have been an early and vigorous supporter of Trump, and that Brexiteer thinking – which they think has damaged the unity of the west – has many parallels with Trumpism. So I really doubt there will be much warmth in the personal relationship. And Biden’s would simply not be an administration which viewed European integration as a negative.

    “The UK’s absence from the EU will make it clearly less influential because it can no longer lead European thinking on the geo-strategic issues which will matter hugely to Biden. So [Biden] will put Berlin and Paris – and indeed Brussels – back at the heart of US thinking: not uncritically, because the US will still have serious issues with EU approaches on economic and security issues.”

    ...Jonathan Powell, who served as a diplomat in Washington in the 1990s before becoming Tony Blair’s chief of staff and taking control of negotiations that led to the Good Friday agreement, said Biden believed Johnson had imperilled the Irish peace process. He said: “Biden is very proud of his Irish antecedents. He has always been active on Northern Ireland since before I was in Washington. He takes a close interest in the Northern Irish peace process and sees it as an outrage that Johnson has in his cavalier manner threatened peace in Northern Ireland for so little reason. So that is going to be chalked up against him.”

    In Washington there are plenty of foreign policy advisers around Biden who worked in the Obama administration and have not forgiven Johnson for his “part-Kenyan” comments. The camp sees Johnson as part of the same populist phenomenon that brought Trump to power. And from the Democrats’ point of view, the UK outside the EU will make it less important as a partner on the world stage."
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Johnson will wait for US election result before no-deal Brexit decision

    Ivan Rogers, former UK ambassador to the EU, says prime minister will think ‘history was going his way’ if Donald Trump is re-elected

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision

    Take Back Control!
    By erm...allowing a foreign electorate to decide our policy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    I'm delightred for Andy, but note that his rating is only polled in the Greater Manchester area. Suspect Labour does quite well there anyway?
    Not overwhelmingly so. The Tories have 1/3 of the MPs.
    Many with tiny majorities.
    They better start thinking what they are going to do after politics then.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
    Not in Michigan and Wisconsin with the rulings, and this threatens to be overturned in PA now too.
    The Justices may have to decide whether they want to continue living in a democracy or in Trump's monarchic empire.
    Just in case people think I'm being hyperbolic about the whole end of Federalism thing

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/supreme-court-pennsylvania-election-late-ballots.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
  • dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
    If votes are seen to be not counted I can foresee trouble.
    This isn't 2000 any more.
    Clearly Republicans are getting so desperate that they are willing to throw their Public Relations 101 textbooks right out the window - then go jumping out after them.

    Strange how they lack the cool confidence of some of our leading PBers. Perhaps they simply do NOT understand just how well they are (said to be) polling?
  • Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    PB Zooming First Tuesday After the First Monday in November is great idea.

    Some quick questions:

    1. for more technically-challenged, what is best way to obtain, install and use (for this particular meeting) Zoom?

    2. how long do you need to set up Zoom and get reasonably up to speed.

    3. what are some basic operational does & don'ts for PB Zoom meetup? For example, is the advice to use headphones to keep down extraneous noise? And how can common Zooming faux pas be avoided?

    4. will there still be provision for standard PBing on this site, and how can it be integrated with PB Zoom (provided that's actually a good thing to do)?

    5. how long is PB Zooming likely to last? And, given time change, what's time diff on Nov 3 between London & NYC?

    Apologize for my crass ignorance & inexperience, but am a true techno-peasant!

    It's an app you download. It's very easy. Keep muted by default so you won't be overheard placing Hawaiian pizza orders on the other line.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    dr_spyn said:

    Calm down, calm down! It's like you've just entered a Wolverhampton pub and shouted "up the Baggies!"
    The only good thing WBA have done in recent years, was to sell Steve Bull to Wolves.
    That dates you!

    He couldn't cut it at the Albion and they had to let him go to the Dingles.
  • I reckon this school meals thing is just a bubble story.

    Jesus, how did the Tories win an election, it's becoming very clear they hold the North in contempt and they're actively losing their votes and trying to look unappealing!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go

    There's a way to go yet. I don't want to burst your bubble, but it is still within MoE.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    PB Zooming First Tuesday After the First Monday in November is great idea.

    Some quick questions:

    1. for more technically-challenged, what is best way to obtain, install and use (for this particular meeting) Zoom?

    2. how long do you need to set up Zoom and get reasonably up to speed.

    3. what are some basic operational does & don'ts for PB Zoom meetup? For example, is the advice to use headphones to keep down extraneous noise? And how can common Zooming faux pas be avoided?

    4. will there still be provision for standard PBing on this site, and how can it be integrated with PB Zoom (provided that's actually a good thing to do)?

    5. how long is PB Zooming likely to last? And, given time change, what's time diff on Nov 3 between London & NYC?

    Apologize for my crass ignorance & inexperience, but am a true techno-peasant!

    It's an app you download. It's very easy. Keep muted by default so you won't be overheard placing Hawaiian pizza orders on the other line.
    For God's sake, somebody warn SeanT! Lord knows what goods & services HE might be overheard ordering for delivery to (or at) his den of iniquity . . .
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
    If votes are seen to be not counted I can foresee trouble.
    This isn't 2000 any more.
    Clearly Republicans are getting so desperate that they are willing to throw their Public Relations 101 textbooks right out the window - then go jumping out after them.

    Strange how they lack the cool confidence of some of our leading PBers. Perhaps they simply do NOT understand just how well they are (said to be) polling?
    Snippet in The Week magazine saying Gallup find record high numbers of Americans say they have become better off financially under Trump vs previous presidents. Not sure what to make of this. Like the "How do you think your neighbours will vote" thing it sounds like looking for supportive oddball polls when boring old Who you gonna vote for ones are not going your way.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I expect that too, although, I suspect it remains close, with a decent Brexit deal bounce for the Conservatives which will evaporate within a couple of months, and then as you say...
  • School meals, why didn't Cummings devise a superb response to that, tactical master and all that?
  • Re PB US EDay Zooming, perhaps those inclined could dress up as their favorite presidential candidate from 1789-2020?

    Think I might come as Horace Greeley, only because I have a) beard; b) hat; and c) bald head.

    AND did follow HG's famous advice to "Go West, Young Man!"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I expect that too, although, I suspect it remains close, with a decent Brexit deal bounce for the Conservatives which will evaporate within a couple of months, and then as you say...
    Several million unemployed. Family businesses ruined. Vaccine only half effective. Months of border chaos for food and meds supplies, followed by problems with travel for summer holidays.

    There's so much crap coming Johnson's (and our) way.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I expect that too, although, I suspect it remains close, with a decent Brexit deal bounce for the Conservatives which will evaporate within a couple of months, and then as you say...
    At the end of the day, it's going to be hard for the Conservatives to win again in 2024 after 14 years in office.

    Time for a change will definitely resonate, so I view it as Labour's to lose.

    However, lose they still can - and a lot can happen in the next 3.5 years.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited October 2020

    Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go

    Electoral Calculus gives Tories 286, Labour 277 and LDs 6 on the new Opinium numbers so even despite falling behind on voteshare the Tories would still be largest party on seats and Starmer would need both the SNP and LDs to form a government

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=40&LIB=6&Brexit=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
  • https://twitter.com/amandamilling/status/1319753071602372613

    What happened to freedom of speech? Or is it only bad when Labour says something the Tories don't like?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    School meals, why didn't Cummings devise a superb response to that, tactical master and all that?

    If you can't afford to feed your kids, why the feck did you have them?


    Or something like that.
  • HYUFD said:

    Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go

    Electoral Calculus gives Tories 286, Labour 277 and LDs 6 on the new Opinium numbers so even despite falling behind on voteshare the Tories would still be largest party on seats and Starmer would need both the SNP and LDs to form a government

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=40&LIB=6&Brexit=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
    Sounds like a great Government, finally get PR and a government over 50% voted for
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    PB Zooming First Tuesday After the First Monday in November is great idea.

    Some quick questions:

    1. for more technically-challenged, what is best way to obtain, install and use (for this particular meeting) Zoom?

    2. how long do you need to set up Zoom and get reasonably up to speed.

    3. what are some basic operational does & don'ts for PB Zoom meetup? For example, is the advice to use headphones to keep down extraneous noise? And how can common Zooming faux pas be avoided?

    4. will there still be provision for standard PBing on this site, and how can it be integrated with PB Zoom (provided that's actually a good thing to do)?

    5. how long is PB Zooming likely to last? And, given time change, what's time diff on Nov 3 between London & NYC?

    Apologize for my crass ignorance & inexperience, but am a true techno-peasant!

    When I use Zoom here in Blighty I just do a google search for "Zoom" and tick "Zoom meetings". If you need to install something it'll tell you I guess. Then follow your nose, but I must mention that I have always needed an entry number to key in. I expect more and maybe more accurate info will wing its way to you from others.

    Make America whole(ish) again, as maimed by our fake president.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    'C' on Twitter owning it:

    https://twitter.com/ChiefMI6/status/1320056663043416064?s=20

    What's so funny about this is that the Russians take this stuff semi-seriously.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390

    Johnson's diary early next week.

    Monday am: U-turn on school meals.
    Monday pm: Write long begging letter to Biden saying sorry for sucking up to Trump.
    Monday evening: announce that world beating family xmas is on.

    Tuesday am: Meet SAGE
    Tuesday pm: Announce family xmas is off

    I think that list would take Boris the whole week, not just Monday and Tuesday. One item each day. He doesn't like to overdo it.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited October 2020
    Oops, I think I can guess what's going to be on the screen at the next Trump rally.
    https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1320095239718174721
  • Safest course for her, seeing as how we're talking about a totally done deal.

    Trumpskyites will be enthused, and establishment Republicans and evangelicals (a BIG bloc in Alaska) will be propitiated. As for Democrats - a key element of Sen. Murkowski's support base (esp. Native Alaskans) - she can point out that she came to the decision slowly AND she's got a few years to do & say things they will like way better.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    School meals, why didn't Cummings devise a superb response to that, tactical master and all that?

    If you can't afford to feed your kids, why the feck did you have them?


    Or something like that.
    Equally he could have gone for how dare you feed children having taken furlough money

    https://twitter.com/SpillerOfTea/status/1319945094976372737
  • https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    HYUFD said:

    Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go

    Electoral Calculus gives Tories 286, Labour 277 and LDs 6 on the new Opinium numbers so even despite falling behind on voteshare the Tories would still be largest party on seats and Starmer would need both the SNP and LDs to form a government

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=40&LIB=6&Brexit=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
    Sounds like a great Government, finally get PR and a government over 50% voted for
    You think that the SNP, after winning 95% of the seats with 50% of the vote, will support PR?
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    would you have voted with Labour over free school meals?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    About a week ago I said I thought it looked like Covid cases were plataueing.

    Well fuck, that they are accelerating off to the moon again.

    Wonder if anyone is posting "but if we are like France then it will be a flat linear increase" tweets
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    would you have voted with Labour over free school meals?
    Nah he wouldn't, he's a liar and a bully.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    Thanks now Labour again voter BigG on your views on the fate of Boris
  • School meals, why didn't Cummings devise a superb response to that, tactical master and all that?

    If you can't afford to feed your kids, why the feck did you have them?


    Or something like that.
    Slightly hard to make that stick in the current situation;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8774005/Wholl-bail-Boris-Johnson-taken-vast-pay-cut-PM.html
  • Alistair said:

    About a week ago I said I thought it looked like Covid cases were plataueing.

    Well fuck, that they are accelerating off to the moon again.

    Wonder if anyone is posting "but if we are like France then it will be a flat linear increase" tweets

    France is a warning sign for the Government to do something.

    Lockdown now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    Oops, I think I can guess what's going to be on the screen at the next Trump rally.
    https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1320095239718174721

    Well that is Ohio gone for Biden then
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    When I worked for Goldman Sachs, we would find ourselves on these crazy long roadshows visiting investors. You'd arrive in a City at 11pm, get four hours sleep in an expensive hotel, wake up to do calls with London, then do a breakfast presentation to 20 people, before being whisked off to the next place. I'd often awake to an alarm at 4:30am, and have no idea which city I was in.

    For Trump, Pence, Biden and Harris, I imagine it's even worse: speech, press flesh, meeting with donor, calls with campaign staff, flight (where you hopefully can catch 20 winks), rinse repeat.

    Her not knowing where she is is - I suspect - an occupational hazard of the last two weeks of a Presidential campaign.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    ydoethur said:

    It looks to me as though we might be being softened up for schools closing early for Christmas:

    Covid-19: Schools may need to close to some year groups, scientist warns https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54673558

    (Yes, I know after he was caught manipulating data he’s no longer a government official.)

    But they’re wildly optimistic if they think we can keep this up until December on a one week break.

    I must have missed a scandal. When was Ferguson caught manipulating data? I thought he stepped down after breaking lockdown to see his girlfriend.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go

    Electoral Calculus gives Tories 286, Labour 277 and LDs 6 on the new Opinium numbers so even despite falling behind on voteshare the Tories would still be largest party on seats and Starmer would need both the SNP and LDs to form a government

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=40&LIB=6&Brexit=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
    Sounds like a great Government, finally get PR and a government over 50% voted for
    Though we had that from 2010 to 2015, 59% voted Tory or LD in 2010
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Oops, I think I can guess what's going to be on the screen at the next Trump rally.
    https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1320095239718174721

    Vital to get that kind of thing right

    https://youtu.be/ho6jbxnxGds
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go

    Electoral Calculus gives Tories 286, Labour 277 and LDs 6 on the new Opinium numbers so even despite falling behind on voteshare the Tories would still be largest party on seats and Starmer would need both the SNP and LDs to form a government

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=40&LIB=6&Brexit=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
    Sounds like a great Government, finally get PR and a government over 50% voted for
    Though we had that from 2010 to 2015, 59% voted Tory or LD in 2010
    Not a bad Government from a competence POV
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited October 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    When I worked for Goldman Sachs, we would find ourselves on these crazy long roadshows visiting investors. You'd arrive in a City at 11pm, get four hours sleep in an expensive hotel, wake up to do calls with London, then do a breakfast presentation to 20 people, before being whisked off to the next place. I'd often awake to an alarm at 4:30am, and have no idea which city I was in.

    For Trump, Pence, Biden and Harris, I imagine it's even worse: speech, press flesh, meeting with donor, calls with campaign staff, flight (where you hopefully can catch 20 winks), rinse repeat.

    Her not knowing where she is is - I suspect - an occupational hazard of the last two weeks of a Presidential campaign.
    Indeed, but it is precisely the kind of gaffe that plays right into Trump's message.
  • https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I expect that too, although, I suspect it remains close, with a decent Brexit deal bounce for the Conservatives which will evaporate within a couple of months, and then as you say...
    At the end of the day, it's going to be hard for the Conservatives to win again in 2024 after 14 years in office.

    Time for a change will definitely resonate, so I view it as Labour's to lose.

    However, lose they still can - and a lot can happen in the next 3.5 years.

    And that is the point

    Covid and a brexit deal will surely be history by 2022 and the upsurge in economic activity should be as marked as today's fall

    Increasing jobs and new issues mean no one can tell the result of 2024

    I could be persuaded to vote for Labour if Corbyn is history and they follow a social agenda and very pro business as per Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland

    Mind you at my wife and my ages another four years would be gratefully received
  • Election night Zoom party? Sounds fab :)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:

    Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go

    Electoral Calculus gives Tories 286, Labour 277 and LDs 6 on the new Opinium numbers so even despite falling behind on voteshare the Tories would still be largest party on seats and Starmer would need both the SNP and LDs to form a government

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=40&LIB=6&Brexit=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
    Sounds like a great Government, finally get PR and a government over 50% voted for
    You think that the SNP, after winning 95% of the seats with 50% of the vote, will support PR?
    Yes, they still do.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,553

    https://twitter.com/amandamilling/status/1319753071602372613

    What happened to freedom of speech? Or is it only bad when Labour says something the Tories don't like?

    There is a small but significant difference between the idea of free speech and the assumption that the exercise of free speech is always a consequence free act. I am entitled to say that Hitler was right in every respect, a fine leader and a great and thoughtful writer, but I am not entitled to expect this to have no consequences with regard to my life and reputation and not entitled to expect not to be argued with and criticised.

    Incidentally the 'Tory scum'/'Tory vermin' trope, now ancient and massively over used is an exceedingly bad way of persuading habitual Tory voters that Labour is a good and safe home for their vote. At this moment Labour voters won't need much persuasion. It's the millions of Tories whose votes Labour needs. Calling them scum is just a very bad idea, especially as, like Labour voters, they generally are not.

  • IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
    If votes are seen to be not counted I can foresee trouble.
    This isn't 2000 any more.
    Clearly Republicans are getting so desperate that they are willing to throw their Public Relations 101 textbooks right out the window - then go jumping out after them.

    Strange how they lack the cool confidence of some of our leading PBers. Perhaps they simply do NOT understand just how well they are (said to be) polling?
    Snippet in The Week magazine saying Gallup find record high numbers of Americans say they have become better off financially under Trump vs previous presidents. Not sure what to make of this. Like the "How do you think your neighbours will vote" thing it sounds like looking for supportive oddball polls when boring old Who you gonna vote for ones are not going your way.
    While the poll may have flaws, it's true that Trumpsky has polled better on his handling of economy than anything else, and better (until recently) than Biden & economy.

    IF he was even half-way housebroken, Trumpsky would be on his way to a narrow but solid re-election after barely winning his first term, very similar to W.

    Fact he's incapable of being POTUS potty-trained and still flinging his toxic pooh in all directions, is what's gonna consign him to the Toilet Bowl of History.

    Flush! Flush!
  • algarkirk said:

    https://twitter.com/amandamilling/status/1319753071602372613

    What happened to freedom of speech? Or is it only bad when Labour says something the Tories don't like?

    There is a small but significant difference between the idea of free speech and the assumption that the exercise of free speech is always a consequence free act. I am entitled to say that Hitler was right in every respect, a fine leader and a great and thoughtful writer, but I am not entitled to expect this to have no consequences with regard to my life and reputation and not entitled to expect not to be argued with and criticised.

    Incidentally the 'Tory scum'/'Tory vermin' trope, now ancient and massively over used is an exceedingly bad way of persuading habitual Tory voters that Labour is a good and safe home for their vote. At this moment Labour voters won't need much persuasion. It's the millions of Tories whose votes Labour needs. Calling them scum is just a very bad idea, especially as, like Labour voters, they generally are not.

    Rayner should absolutely apologise and I said so already but my point stands.
  • HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    Thanks now Labour again voter BigG on your views on the fate of Boris
    Do not put words into my mouth

    Boris is not the person for todays crisis and more and more conservatives are concluding the same
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited October 2020

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    New Scandi drama on BBC4 called DNA.

    Any good?
    Not sure yet. Ep 2 just starting.
  • Tory on Tory, fight fight fight!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:

    Oops, I think I can guess what's going to be on the screen at the next Trump rally.
    https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1320095239718174721

    Well that is Ohio gone for Biden then
    "Are we really in Cleveland? I thought this was supposed to be a Republican state?"
  • https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1320103167019917316

    Johnson gonna be more unpopular than Farage soon
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited October 2020
    Oo, we have a "Gravis Marketing" Pennsylvania poll.

    Biden 51% (+3)
    Trump 44% (-1)

    Changes from 24th July.

    So using the @HYUFD method, if we allocate all of the 5% others to Trump, Biden still wins.
  • rcs1000 said:

    When I worked for Goldman Sachs, we would find ourselves on these crazy long roadshows visiting investors. You'd arrive in a City at 11pm, get four hours sleep in an expensive hotel, wake up to do calls with London, then do a breakfast presentation to 20 people, before being whisked off to the next place. I'd often awake to an alarm at 4:30am, and have no idea which city I was in.

    For Trump, Pence, Biden and Harris, I imagine it's even worse: speech, press flesh, meeting with donor, calls with campaign staff, flight (where you hopefully can catch 20 winks), rinse repeat.

    Her not knowing where she is is - I suspect - an occupational hazard of the last two weeks of a Presidential campaign.
    Indeed, but it is precisely the kind of gaffe that plays right into Trump's message.
    You do have a point, albeit a small one. Doubtful it will be THE x-factor that swings the Buckeye State.

    Which methinks Trumpsky's gonna win (again) as a) it's been trending GOP for a while; and b) Republican dirty tricks, such as sabotaging printing of absentee ballots for number of large OH counties by company flying MAGA flag on its roof.
  • I am starting my own polling firm.

    Numbers

    Trump 100
    Biden 0
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    would you have voted with Labour over free school meals?
    Nah he wouldn't, he's a liar and a bully.
    You are out of order

    I most certainly would vote for labour's amendment

    Who do you think you are accusing me of being a liar

    You have already been called out by my fellow posters when you accused me of being a liar when I voted remain

    You need help

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    ydoethur said:

    It looks to me as though we might be being softened up for schools closing early for Christmas:

    Covid-19: Schools may need to close to some year groups, scientist warns https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54673558

    (Yes, I know after he was caught manipulating data he’s no longer a government official.)

    But they’re wildly optimistic if they think we can keep this up until December on a one week break.

    I must have missed a scandal. When was Ferguson caught manipulating data? I thought he stepped down after breaking lockdown to see his girlfriend.
    The normally reliable YDoethur is wrong.

    I don't think Ferguson was (i) ever a government official or (ii) has been caught manipulating data (which would of course be an extremely serious matter for a scientist.)
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    Thanks now Labour again voter BigG on your views on the fate of Boris
    Do not put words into my mouth

    Boris is not the person for todays crisis and more and more conservatives are concluding the same
    I'm not sure Boris is the person for any crisis. I agree though that more conservatives increasingly moving away from him - myself and my wife for starters. Though it was a pretty crap choice at GE2019 and judging by Drakeford in Wales I think Corbyn would have been worse.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    would you have voted with Labour over free school meals?
    Nah he wouldn't, he's a liar and a bully.
    You are out of order

    I most certainly would vote for labour's amendment

    Who do you think you are accusing me of being a liar

    You have already been called out by my fellow posters when you accused me of being a liar when I voted remain

    You need help

    You're a liar.

    And you're a bully.

    End of story.

    You think you can come on here and tell me and others what to do and then you have the arrogance to play the victim, I won't stand for it any more.
  • alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oops, I think I can guess what's going to be on the screen at the next Trump rally.
    https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1320095239718174721

    Well that is Ohio gone for Biden then
    "Are we really in Cleveland? I thought this was supposed to be a Republican state?"
    At least she didn't call it "the Mistake on the Lake" or start reciting lyrics of Randy Newman's ode to the Cuyahoga River: "Burn On, Big River, Burn On!"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    HYUFD said:

    Oops, I think I can guess what's going to be on the screen at the next Trump rally.
    https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1320095239718174721

    Well that is Ohio gone for Biden then
    LOL!

    Do you remember https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/gordon-brown-penitent-bigot-gaffe-campaign

    That was 100x bigger, and everyone forecast it would mean the Labour Party would do really badly in the constituency.

    And they actually outperformed there.

    Back in 2008, I remember this being posted on here, and people saying that it meant Obama was doomed:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omHUsRTYFAU&ab_channel=DennisBerwyn
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    would you have voted with Labour over free school meals?
    Yes.

    Absolutely yes and I said so at the time of the vote

    And to rebut Horse who has called me a liar on voting remain and backing free school meals I vow it on my grandchikdrens life
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited October 2020
    Big G has spent the last many weeks bullying and picking on me and I'm not the only one to point it out as he's done the same to other users. I won't name them out of respect for their privacy.

    I've seen Big G's type many times in my life, I know exactly what you are. You're a coward and a nasty piece of work.
  • So to make it clear Big G you can continue to be rude, condescending and a bully all you like but I am going to call it out from now on. I won't be responding to you for any reason, you're simply not worth the effort - bullying however is something I won't let you do to others.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    rcs1000 said:

    When I worked for Goldman Sachs, we would find ourselves on these crazy long roadshows visiting investors. You'd arrive in a City at 11pm, get four hours sleep in an expensive hotel, wake up to do calls with London, then do a breakfast presentation to 20 people, before being whisked off to the next place. I'd often awake to an alarm at 4:30am, and have no idea which city I was in.

    For Trump, Pence, Biden and Harris, I imagine it's even worse: speech, press flesh, meeting with donor, calls with campaign staff, flight (where you hopefully can catch 20 winks), rinse repeat.

    Her not knowing where she is is - I suspect - an occupational hazard of the last two weeks of a Presidential campaign.
    Indeed, but it is precisely the kind of gaffe that plays right into Trump's message.
    Gaffes - pussygate, bigoted woman, etc. - very rarely move many votes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    "Who Won The Last Presidential Debate?
    We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the candidates took the stage."

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-final-debate-poll/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    ydoethur said:

    It looks to me as though we might be being softened up for schools closing early for Christmas:

    Covid-19: Schools may need to close to some year groups, scientist warns https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54673558

    (Yes, I know after he was caught manipulating data he’s no longer a government official.)

    But they’re wildly optimistic if they think we can keep this up until December on a one week break.

    I must have missed a scandal. When was Ferguson caught manipulating data? I thought he stepped down after breaking lockdown to see his girlfriend.
    The normally reliable YDoethur is wrong.

    I don't think Ferguson was (i) ever a government official or (ii) has been caught manipulating data (which would of course be an extremely serious matter for a scientist.)
    "I didn't elect a scientist. I didn't elect Whitty" : Maureen of Barnsley.

  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    would you have voted with Labour over free school meals?
    Nah he wouldn't, he's a liar and a bully.
    You are out of order

    I most certainly would vote for labour's amendment

    Who do you think you are accusing me of being a liar

    You have already been called out by my fellow posters when you accused me of being a liar when I voted remain

    You need help

    You're a liar.

    And you're a bully.

    End of story.

    You think you can come on here and tell me and others what to do and then you have the arrogance to play the victim, I won't stand for it any more.
    You need to retract that statement
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1320103167019917316

    Johnson gonna be more unpopular than Farage soon

    Certainly in the North.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Calm down, calm down! It's like you've just entered a Wolverhampton pub and shouted "up the Baggies!"
    The only good thing WBA have done in recent years, was to sell Steve Bull to Wolves.
    That dates you!

    He couldn't cut it at the Albion and they had to let him go to the Dingles.
    Remember Serge Gnabry wasn't good enough for the Baggies.
  • Big G has spent the last many weeks bullying and picking on me and I'm not the only one to point it out as he's done the same to other users. I won't name them out of respect for their privacy.

    I've seen Big G's type many times in my life, I know exactly what you are. You're a coward and a nasty piece of work.

    Grow up

    This is an internet forum
  • So to make it clear Big G you can continue to be rude, condescending and a bully all you like but I am going to call it out from now on. I won't be responding to you for any reason, you're simply not worth the effort - bullying however is something I won't let you do to others.

    You need to calm down and by the way you do not police this site
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Tory almost-landslide to out of Government, quite a way to go

    Electoral Calculus gives Tories 286, Labour 277 and LDs 6 on the new Opinium numbers so even despite falling behind on voteshare the Tories would still be largest party on seats and Starmer would need both the SNP and LDs to form a government

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=40&LIB=6&Brexit=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019
    tinyurl is your friend.

    Also I love the fact that the bit of that which presumably reflects your personal inputs begins "scotcontrol=Y".
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Who Won The Last Presidential Debate?
    We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the candidates took the stage."

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-final-debate-poll/

    A wash - bad news for Trumpsky, good news for Uncle Joe.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    Thanks now Labour again voter BigG on your views on the fate of Boris
    Do not put words into my mouth

    Boris is not the person for todays crisis and more and more conservatives are concluding the same
    Sadly a lot of Tory members missed that blatantly obvious flaw when they voted for him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Dan Jarvis wants to know what the criteria will be for S Yorks to leave Tier 3 covid lockdown.

    Try the passing of the Spring equinox.

  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    Thanks now Labour again voter BigG on your views on the fate of Boris
    Do not put words into my mouth

    Boris is not the person for todays crisis and more and more conservatives are concluding the same
    Sadly a lot of Tory members missed that blatantly obvious flaw when they voted for him.
    To be honest he was the person for the time but covid has shown him to be unable to adapt to the leadership needed

    I want him to be replaced for several reasons but as the union is important to my wife and I his toxicity in Scotland makes it more and more likely sadly
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    When I worked for Goldman Sachs, we would find ourselves on these crazy long roadshows visiting investors. You'd arrive in a City at 11pm, get four hours sleep in an expensive hotel, wake up to do calls with London, then do a breakfast presentation to 20 people, before being whisked off to the next place. I'd often awake to an alarm at 4:30am, and have no idea which city I was in.

    For Trump, Pence, Biden and Harris, I imagine it's even worse: speech, press flesh, meeting with donor, calls with campaign staff, flight (where you hopefully can catch 20 winks), rinse repeat.

    Her not knowing where she is is - I suspect - an occupational hazard of the last two weeks of a Presidential campaign.
    Indeed, but it is precisely the kind of gaffe that plays right into Trump's message.
    Gaffes - pussygate, bigoted woman, etc. - very rarely move many votes.
    What they do have a way of doing, is diverting candidates for hours or even days from their own campaign strategy & message.

    Note that the President is a master at this - against himself.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Dare to dream of the end of the Tory Party's period in Government? I do

    You are over reacting its one poll but its a very good one

    Well done Andy Burnham
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Remember those of us with toddlers tomorrow morning.

    Whilst you get an extra hour in bed, I will just have an extra long day.

    Been there done that. Am now 20 years older. Feels like 40.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Never thought I'd be declaring that I agree with Bernard Jenkin!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited October 2020
    Georgia has flip-flopped again on 538's forecast. ME2 is also very close to switching.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Normally I ignore congressional district polling but having that suggestion that 2016 CD polling showed Trump in a much better position than the State polling did has got me interested.

    Now, I have yet to find a collation of 2016 CD polling to be able to confirm the above suggestion but what I will say is that if the current CD polling is even close to accurate then Trump is getting ROFLStomped. Districts won by the GOP by 20 points in 2016 when Trump's namen was on the ballot are within 4 now.

    Basically the CD polling for 2020 looks similar to 2018 in a lot of ways.

    Now to find the 2016 CD polling.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling

    Only the beginning. Wait until you see the numbers by next summer.
    I predicted crossover this weekend following a week of out of touch government allowing Burnham and Marcus Rushford to take over the agenda

    As I said earlier this week I would have voted with Labour over free schools meals but HMG should have led it

    The only surprise is Labour remain static and Starmer is only 1 point ahead of Boris

    The brexit negotiation needs a deal, any deal

    Then time the backbenchers starting writing letters to the 1922
    would you have voted with Labour over free school meals?
    Nah he wouldn't, he's a liar and a bully.
    You are out of order

    I most certainly would vote for labour's amendment

    Who do you think you are accusing me of being a liar

    You have already been called out by my fellow posters when you accused me of being a liar when I voted remain

    You need help

    You're a liar.

    And you're a bully.

    End of story.

    You think you can come on here and tell me and others what to do and then you have the arrogance to play the victim, I won't stand for it any more.
    I don't recognize your version of @Big_G_NorthWales

    He's unfailingly polite in my experience and I have yet to come across a lie.

  • Dare to dream of the end of the Tory Party's period in Government? I do

    You are over reacting its one poll but its a very good one

    Well done Andy Burnham
    Andy Burnham and Marcus Rashford may just be the catalyst that sees the conservative party change it's leader
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    algarkirk said:

    https://twitter.com/amandamilling/status/1319753071602372613

    What happened to freedom of speech? Or is it only bad when Labour says something the Tories don't like?

    There is a small but significant difference between the idea of free speech and the assumption that the exercise of free speech is always a consequence free act. I am entitled to say that Hitler was right in every respect, a fine leader and a great and thoughtful writer, but I am not entitled to expect this to have no consequences with regard to my life and reputation and not entitled to expect not to be argued with and criticised.

    Incidentally the 'Tory scum'/'Tory vermin' trope, now ancient and massively over used is an exceedingly bad way of persuading habitual Tory voters that Labour is a good and safe home for their vote. At this moment Labour voters won't need much persuasion. It's the millions of Tories whose votes Labour needs. Calling them scum is just a very bad idea, especially as, like Labour voters, they generally are not.

    Yes but. Did they receive abuse because.
    A. The comments of Rayner. Or,
    B. Voting against free school meals?

    I suspect B is more likely.
This discussion has been closed.