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Announcing the PB WH2020 election night Zoom “party” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,017
edited October 2020 in General
imageAnnouncing the PB WH2020 election night Zoom “party” – politicalbetting.com

Thanks to Barnesian, whose idea it was and whose Zoom account we will be using, there will be a PB Election night Zoom gathering. The thinking is to start just before midnight when the polls close in Florida when we should start to get real numbers about what the American people have decided and who will be the next President.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Sounds like a great idea!
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Does anyone have or know of a collation of individual congressional district polls done in 2016?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    I would have loved to come - but unless schools are shut, I can’t.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited October 2020
    I’m going to be hammered. Apologies in advance.
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    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 706
    edited October 2020
    Sounds amazing! Thanks Barnesian, I'm in! FWIW I will be aiming to watch CNN, Fox and other US channels, (not the BBC!) I think some counties in Indiana and Kentucky will close polls at 11pm GMT.

    Btw is there a limit to attendees on a Zoom call? Barnesian what time are you aiming to keep it open until? Don't think Trump was declared winner until something like 7.45am GMT in 2016?
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited October 2020
    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    JohnO said:

    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%

    I was wondering before that edit why people preferred Opinium to the Tories.

    Although given a forced choice...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    ydoethur said:

    I would have loved to come - but unless schools are shut, I can’t.

    I was going to ask a snarky question about teaching at night... and then I recalled my wife is a teacher. :smile:

    And although half her year group got sent home just before half term owing to a Covid contact, she is in a separate bubble, so will be back at work too.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    JohnO said:

    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%

    Yes, looks like MoE stuff - Greens surprisingly high too:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338?s=19

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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    That classic Tory to Green swing.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Sounds amazing! Thanks Barnesian, I'm in! FWIW I will be aiming to watch CNN, Fox and other US channels, (not the BBC!) I think some counties in Indiana and Kentucky will close polls at 11pm GMT.

    Btw is there a limit to attendees on a Zoom call? Barnesian what time are you aiming to keep it open until? Don't think Trump was declared winner until something like 7.45am GMT in 2016?

    We'll pretty much know the winner as soon as we start seeing 100% completed counting in a variety of different counties.

    In 2016 it was seeing how well that Trump was doing in rural Florida that told you he was going to win.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    FPT
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BBC News - Covid: Wales lockdown supermarket rules 'need urgent debate'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54676457

    Some interesting examples.

    Jodi from RCT shows exactly why the clothing ban in supermarkets is stupid. And, incidentally, how affluent everyone on pb.com is including the Tribunes of the People. Someone might not be able to afford to buy some clothes for their kid until payday.

    The Senedd petition increased by about a thousand while I typed this out. It is now at 31942. I signed it.

    https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/244282

    I suspect Drakeford will be "clarifying" shortly -- sadly for all his loyal English fan-club.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320075661474729984
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    Casino_Royale said:

    JohnO said:

    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%

    Yes, looks like MoE stuff - Greens surprisingly high too:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338?s=19

    Surely the whole point of a green is to be high?

    I mean, if you can’t do drugs when you’re an idealistic scrounging posh git gluing yourself to electric trains and making everyone take taxis ’cos fuels like diesel are killing the planet, when can you do them?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    rcs1000 said:

    DoubleCarpet said:

    Sounds amazing! Thanks Barnesian, I'm in! FWIW I will be aiming to watch CNN, Fox and other US channels, (not the BBC!) I think some counties in Indiana and Kentucky will close polls at 11pm GMT.

    Btw is there a limit to attendees on a Zoom call? Barnesian what time are you aiming to keep it open until? Don't think Trump was declared winner until something like 7.45am GMT in 2016?

    We'll pretty much know the winner as soon as we start seeing 100% completed counting in a variety of different counties.

    In 2016 it was seeing how well that Trump was doing in rural Florida that told you he was going to win.
    We need an American John Curtice.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320075661474729984

    It’s not going exactly terribly well anywhere in Europe is it?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
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    theenglishborntheenglishborn Posts: 162
    Alistair said:

    Does anyone have or know of a collation of individual congressional district polls done in 2016?

    I don't have a Twitter account but this chap has some of this year's, maybe ask him?
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Brand_Allen
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    It looks to me as though we might be being softened up for schools closing early for Christmas:

    Covid-19: Schools may need to close to some year groups, scientist warns https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54673558

    (Yes, I know after he was caught manipulating data he’s no longer a government official.)

    But they’re wildly optimistic if they think we can keep this up until December on a one week break.
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    ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 895
    YBarddCwsc said:

    FPT

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BBC News - Covid: Wales lockdown supermarket rules 'need urgent debate'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54676457

    ......And, incidentally, how affluent everyone on pb.com is including the Tribunes of the People....
    Most under stated obvious statement ever.

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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    From memory, I don't believe all polls in Florida close at midnight GMT.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ManchesterKurt said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    FPT

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BBC News - Covid: Wales lockdown supermarket rules 'need urgent debate'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54676457

    ......And, incidentally, how affluent everyone on pb.com is including the Tribunes of the People....
    Most under stated obvious statement ever.

    Yes, I think you are probably right on that 😁
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    At a GE I would expect 2% of that Green total to switch to Labour.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
    Is it definitely that way round?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    justin124 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    At a GE I would expect 2% of that Green total to switch to Labour.
    Spot on.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
    Is it definitely that way round?
    Yes! Can't remember which Edinburgh Council ward it was but I nearly fell of my seat when I spotted it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
    Is it definitely that way round?
    Yes! Can't remember which Edinburgh Council ward it was but I nearly fell of my seat when I spotted it.
    That's odd. I can't think of much they have in common in economics, unionism or Brexit!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    Sounds a good idea, I may try and join for an hour or two
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
    Is it definitely that way round?
    Yes! Can't remember which Edinburgh Council ward it was but I nearly fell of my seat when I spotted it.
    That's odd. I can't think of much they have in common in economics, unionism or Brexit!
    Conservation, perhaps?

    But remember, 3% of Remainers voted for the Brexit party.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Casino_Royale said:

    JohnO said:

    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%

    Yes, looks like MoE stuff - Greens surprisingly high too:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338?s=19

    Is this the first time Laour have been in front for very long time with a gold standard pollster?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
    Is it definitely that way round?
    Yes! Can't remember which Edinburgh Council ward it was but I nearly fell of my seat when I spotted it.
    That's odd. I can't think of much they have in common in economics, unionism or Brexit!
    Conservation, perhaps?

    But remember, 3% of Remainers voted for the Brexit party.
    Yes, it could be that plus a NOTA choice which, when forced, becomes an anti-SNP/nationalist choice.

    Like UKIP/BXP on the EU I'd expect the Greens to otherwise only seriously prosper when voters weren't convinced that either of the main parties were taking climate change seriously enough.

    I don't think we have that problem here and XR is a niche taste.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    JohnO said:

    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%

    Yes, looks like MoE stuff - Greens surprisingly high too:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338?s=19

    Is this the first time Laour have been in front for very long time with a gold standard pollster?
    First time since *checks notes*, the end of September 2020.
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    ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 895
    Does the US election get as much coverage in non English speaking European counties ?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,186
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    JohnO said:

    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%

    Yes, looks like MoE stuff - Greens surprisingly high too:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338?s=19

    Is this the first time Laour have been in front for very long time with a gold standard pollster?
    First time since *checks notes*, the end of September 2020.
    For a teacher this half term, that feels like a fucking eternity.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338

    The details of the poll in the data tables have 7% of 2019 Conservatives now voting Labour and 2% voting UKIP (or Brexit Party in reality I expect).

    46% of 2019 LDs are now voting Labour and 7% of 2019 Labour voters are now voting Green.

    It also surprisingly has Labour ahead 44% to 39% in England but the Tories ahead 40% to 29% in Wales, in Scotland the SNP are on 48%, the Tories on 27% and Labour on 20%.



    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
    Is it definitely that way round?
    Yes! Can't remember which Edinburgh Council ward it was but I nearly fell of my seat when I spotted it.
    That's odd. I can't think of much they have in common in economics, unionism or Brexit!
    The remnants of Dave's go Vote Blue, Go Green strategy?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    I see Marcus Rashford on Twitter condemns attacks on female MPs, unlike some of the hard of thinking respondents on the left who are offering their thoughts.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    dr_spyn said:

    I see Marcus Rashford on Twitter condemns attacks on female MPs, unlike some of the hard of thinking respondents on the left who are offering their thoughts.

    Marcus Rashford's behaviour has been impeccable.

    He puts most of his elders to shame.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
    Is it definitely that way round?
    Yes! Can't remember which Edinburgh Council ward it was but I nearly fell of my seat when I spotted it.
    That's odd. I can't think of much they have in common in economics, unionism or Brexit!
    The remnants of Dave's go Vote Blue, Go Green strategy?
    Vote Green, Go Blue!
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,310
    Zooming good idea. I'll be there.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    Casino_Royale said:

    dr_spyn said:

    I see Marcus Rashford on Twitter condemns attacks on female MPs, unlike some of the hard of thinking respondents on the left who are offering their thoughts.

    Marcus Rashford's behaviour has been impeccable.

    He puts most of his elders to shame.
    Earlier on today I was asked to price up a Marcus Rashford to be PM by 2050 market.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    justin124 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    At a GE I would expect 2% of that Green total to switch to Labour.
    We come to an electoral pact in our household to help achieve that.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338

    The details of the poll in the data tables have 7% of 2019 Conservatives now voting Labour and 2% voting UKIP (or Brexit Party in reality I expect).

    46% of 2019 LDs are now voting Labour and 7% of 2019 Labour voters are now voting Green.

    It also surprisingly has Labour ahead 44% to 39% in England but the Tories ahead 40% to 29% in Wales, in Scotland the SNP are on 48%, the Tories on 27% and Labour on 20%.



    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-22nd-october-2020/
    Those look suspiciously like sub-samples?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    On topic, thanks Barnesian, I'll try and pop in, in between editing PB.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    ydoethur said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    There is a suprising number of Green to Tory transfers at Scottish Council elections (I. E. A non zero amount)
    Is it definitely that way round?
    Yes! Can't remember which Edinburgh Council ward it was but I nearly fell of my seat when I spotted it.
    That's odd. I can't think of much they have in common in economics, unionism or Brexit!
    Conservation, perhaps?

    But remember, 3% of Remainers voted for the Brexit party.
    Yes. I don't know, but should imagine the late David Bellamy to have been something of a Green Tory.
    There really should be some overlap at the margins. Rural one nation, not ideological Tory. Likes it quiet, clean and wants to keep it so.
    And self-sufficient Greeny instinctively opposed to the State interfering.
    Not large groups, but not zero either.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    dr_spyn said:

    I see Marcus Rashford on Twitter condemns attacks on female MPs, unlike some of the hard of thinking respondents on the left who are offering their thoughts.

    Marcus Rashford's behaviour has been impeccable.

    He puts most of his elders to shame.
    Earlier on today I was asked to price up a Marcus Rashford to be PM by 2050 market.
    Price up?

    You working for a bookie freelance part-time?
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Sounds amazing! Thanks Barnesian, I'm in! FWIW I will be aiming to watch CNN, Fox and other US channels, (not the BBC!) I think some counties in Indiana and Kentucky will close polls at 11pm GMT.

    Btw is there a limit to attendees on a Zoom call? Barnesian what time are you aiming to keep it open until? Don't think Trump was declared winner until something like 7.45am GMT in 2016?

    Polls close in most of Indiana and Kentucky at 6 pm Eastern; in remainder of these states (far northwest & southwest IN, western KY) in the Central time zone poll closing is one hour later.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    Biden's projected lead in PA down slightly to 5.5% according to 538.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    JohnO said:

    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%

    Yes, looks like MoE stuff - Greens surprisingly high too:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338?s=19

    Is this the first time Laour have been in front for very long time with a gold standard pollster?
    First time since *checks notes*, the end of September 2020.
    That's an awful long time in politics these days.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    justin124 said:

    From memory, I don't believe all polls in Florida close at midnight GMT.

    You are correct, the panhandle closes later - 1am UK time.

    One of the joys of the US is that counting happens pretty quickly, even in this world with mail in ballots.

    Once we know how voters are swinging in a couple of 100% complete counties, we'll be pretty sure of the result (even though the betting markets will be slow to catch on, kerching!).
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    Burnham shouldn't have run such a shite campaign. He was offering nothing.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,600
    FPT
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    Here's my forecast for the 2020 Presidential and Senate elections.

    I think turnout is going to be way up on 2016. Now, it is worth remembering that quoted turnout numbers are of all adults and around 14% of the US population is not American (like me), and therefore not eligible to vote. This means that real turnout in 2016 was actually 64-65% rather than the quoted 55.5%.

    I think turnout in 2020 is going to be around 70% of voting age adults, which is about 159 million votes.

    High School educated voters are less likely to vote than college educated ones, historically, and I forecast President Trump's vote total to increase an unprecedented 5 million.

    Unfortunately for him, that only gets him to 42-43% of the vote.

    By contrast, I expect Joe Biden to get in excess of 50% of the vote, perhaps 53-54%.

    In other words, I expect the polling error to reverse. In aggregate the polls will be wrong about 2% this year, but in favour of the Democrat, not the Republican.

    This 10-12 percentage point lead will result in a raft of disastrous races for the Republicans. I expect them to lose Florida and Texas, among others.

    This will be a disaster down ticket for the Republicans. No, I don't expect them to lose Texas - but I suspect they will drop Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, Montana, Maine, Alaska and Colorado.

    Why do I think this?

    Simply: polling errors oscillate. And I think early turnout reflects just how much ordinary Democratically aligned voters regret not turning out in 2016. Trump has not expanded his base of voters, and he's pissed off a whole bunch of people who didn't like either him or Hillary, but plumped for him last time. Simply: his base hasn't expanded, while the base of people *really* who don't like him has.

    I am long Democratic electoral college votes at 320, and I am long Biden for the Presidency.

    Ok, @rcs1000, as you might guess I am going to disagree with you on at least some of that.

    First, I agree on the turnout point. It’s clear a hell of a lot of people are enthused judging by the early voting etc So expect turnout to be high (which is the opposite of what I thought a few weeks back);

    Second, though, the enthusiasm of the Republicans looks as high as the Democrats at least when it comes to In Person Early Voting (no surprise less so on Mail In Ballots given Trump’s comments). So, there definitely doesn’t appear to be an enthusiasm gap. As you said, non-college white voters tend to be under-represented. I would bank that 2020 will see another big increase in the share of the vote from this group which will help Trump.

    Third, looking at some of the data (NC is always good), it still looks like younger voters are under punching in their share of their vote vs their share of registered voters. That may reverse but I disagree with @SeaShantyIrish2 that younger voters will naturally rise as we get to Election Day - given how much early voting there is this year, we should expect younger voters’ share so far to more closely match their final figure.

    Fourth, re undecideds, with no empirical data whatsoever, my view is they break for Trump simply because, as President, he is a known entity.

    My prediction on national share of the vote - Biden 50pc, Trump 47pc, others 3. Trump to win the electoral college narrowly
    You cite North Carolina but the figures on early voting so far don't back up your assertions.

    In 2016, the Democrats won early voting there by 78k (winning by 84k in-person, losing by 6k for mail) yet Trump won election day by 251k so Trump won overall by 173k. The contrast this year is stark. So far (up to 24/10) the Democrats are ahead on early voting by 328k (ahead by 113k in-person, ahead by 215k for mail). That is one heck of a contrast even with early voting incomplete. Dems lead Republicans by 41% to 30%. As more early votes come in, the aggregate Dem lead will increase further unless there's a big change in the pattern.

    I don't think you can explain most of the contrast by the theory of Republicans deciding not to vote by mail in 2020 having done so in 2016. If that were the case, many Republicans would have switched to early in-person voting rather than wait for election day. Maybe many did. But if they did switch to in-person early voting, the numbers who did are still outweighed by even more Dems choosing to vote early-in person, allowing the Dems to stretch their in-person early voting lead there by 35k overall.

    The scale of early voting is also impressive, with 24% of early voters being people who did not vote at all in NC in 2016. So you can't really explain the improvement in the Dems position on people switching to vote early after voting on election day in 2016. We know that turnout amongst Dems was a problem in 2016, in contrast to the enthusiasm of Trump voters then, so the large number of previous non-voters this year points to the Dems catching up.

    Overall those figures look very good for the Dems in NC. Trump might mount a stunning election day comeback, but it is clear that his margin on election day will have to be very much bigger than the 251k he achieved in 2016 to stand a chance. Even if he did so, and clung on to NC by the narrowest of margins, then the Republicans would have lost the 3.6% margin that they won NC by in 2016. Apply that on a uniform swing nationally and the Dems would be over 6% ahead in share of the popular vote, even on such a Trump comeback scenario.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Zoom zoom !
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, thanks Barnesian, I'll try and pop in, in between editing PB.

    Yes, thanks to Barnesian.

    Zoom isn't quite anonymous enough for me (although I'd be happy to meet up in person at a pub) but I hope everyone enjoys it.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    A friend of mine just voted in Manhattan: he queued four hours to vote.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    Great idea. Haven't understood why we need headphones for Zoom - I Zoom every day without them. Mainly if one lives with less interested family?
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,418
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    JohnO said:

    Opinium has 2% Labour lead on 40% and Cons 38%

    Yes, looks like MoE stuff - Greens surprisingly high too:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320077876545421338?s=19

    Is this the first time Laour have been in front for very long time with a gold standard pollster?
    First time since *checks notes*, the end of September 2020.
    Looking at the Wikipedia smoothed graph;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg

    It's surprising how steady the decay in the Conservative vote has been since the start of September. And although it's only Opinium that have had a Labour lead, the trend line shows crossover.

    (Can't find the Klaxon, sorry.)
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    justin124 said:

    From memory, I don't believe all polls in Florida close at midnight GMT.

    Correct. The northwestern Panhandle of Florida is in Central time zone, where poll closing is one hour later. BUT that is relatively small portion of total Sunshine State vote, it's only major population center is Pensacola, which is small bear compared to Miami, Tampa-St Pete, Orlando, etc.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    rcs1000 said:

    A friend of mine just voted in Manhattan: he queued four hours to vote.

    I think the longest I've ever waited to vote is about 20 seconds.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,600
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    Burnham shouldn't have run such a shite campaign. He was offering nothing.
    Yes I agree. In fact, all he had to do was resign from the Shadow Cabinet over Harman's failure to vote against the welfare bill, and he would have been home. Instead he left a gap in the left field for Corbyn to walk into.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    Burnham shouldn't have run such a shite campaign. He was offering nothing.
    Andy the Party comes first Burnham...

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-country-comes-first-not-party-andy-burnham-and-liz-kendall-clash-contenders-go-head-head-live-tv-debate-10327864.html
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    SandyRentool said:

    justin124 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    At a GE I would expect 2% of that Green total to switch to Labour.
    We come to an electoral pact in our household to help achieve that.
    So do you live with 50 (or more!) of your nearest & dearest?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    dr_spyn said:

    I see Marcus Rashford on Twitter condemns attacks on female MPs, unlike some of the hard of thinking respondents on the left who are offering their thoughts.

    Marcus Rashford's behaviour has been impeccable.

    He puts most of his elders to shame.
    Earlier on today I was asked to price up a Marcus Rashford to be PM by 2050 market.
    Price up?

    You working for a bookie freelance part-time?
    Not quite, a friend was going to do a request a bet with a bookie, and wanted to know what sort of price I'd expect the bookie to offer.

    I went for 500/1 on the basis that Shadsy is offering that on Gary Neville to be PM by 2050.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    rcs1000 said:

    A friend of mine just voted in Manhattan: he queued four hours to vote.

    Is he a Shy Trumpskyite? OR a Shy Kayneiac?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,150
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    But Burnham wasn't/ isn't very good either. Granted streets ahead of Corbyn, but would he have beaten May in the postponed 2020 election. I am not sure.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    I tell you what scares me, we're closer to 2050 than we are 1990.

    DAFUQ?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    SandyRentool said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    Burnham shouldn't have run such a shite campaign. He was offering nothing.
    Yep. A single percentage of the passion he has shown in the past week would have helped.
    He always had it.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    I'm delightred for Andy, but note that his rating is only polled in the Greater Manchester area. Suspect Labour does quite well there anyway?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    A friend of mine just voted in Manhattan: he queued four hours to vote.

    Can't imagine why

    https://twitter.com/justinhendrix/status/1320033601224933381?s=19
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,320
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    dr_spyn said:

    I see Marcus Rashford on Twitter condemns attacks on female MPs, unlike some of the hard of thinking respondents on the left who are offering their thoughts.

    Marcus Rashford's behaviour has been impeccable.

    He puts most of his elders to shame.
    Earlier on today I was asked to price up a Marcus Rashford to be PM by 2050 market.
    Price up?

    You working for a bookie freelance part-time?
    Not quite, a friend was going to do a request a bet with a bookie, and wanted to know what sort of price I'd expect the bookie to offer.

    I went for 500/1 on the basis that Shadsy is offering that on Gary Neville to be PM by 2050.
    Ah. Thanks.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    Fuck VAR.

    https://twitter.com/MaddockMirror/status/1320090407167025152

    And the tv pictures show that it was outside box.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056
    Obama is out on the stump for Biden again.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1320090322261692419
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Evening all :)

    As I have to work for a living, I'll pass on the Zoom gathering - it was so much better on the terrace of the National Liberal Club :)

    The daily rolling IBD/TIPP poll has Biden up 51-44.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A friend of mine just voted in Manhattan: he queued four hours to vote.

    I think the longest I've ever waited to vote is about 20 seconds.
    I had to queue for about 5 - 10 minutes in the 2010 GE (Sheffield Central). It's probably about as long as it gets in this country - obviously being a very urban constituency.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    What do you mean?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,150
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I tell you what scares me, we're closer to 2050 than we are 1990.

    DAFUQ?

    Speak for yourself.

    The Grim Reaper will have come knocking at my door by then.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited October 2020
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    But Burnham wasn't/ isn't very good either. Granted streets ahead of Corbyn, but would he have beaten May in the postponed 2020 election. I am not sure.
    He would not have beaten Boris most likely last time but he might have beaten May
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    It's fascism in plain sight.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,150
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    But Burnham wasn't/ isn't very good either. Granted streets ahead of Corbyn, but would he have beaten May in the postponed 2020 election. I am not sure.
    He would not have beaten Boris most likely last time but he might have beaten May
    Johnson would have remained a failed former FS without GE2017.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,960
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,600
    justin124 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    That classic Tory to Green swing.

    At a GE I would expect 2% of that Green total to switch to Labour.
    Yes, the Greens have repeatedly been squeezed by Labour in the months leading up to recent GEs, so that's a reasonable assumption.

    In 2019 that was masked by the Tories' squeezing of the much larger Brexit Party vote, and likewise in 2015 with UKIP. But that well has now been emptied by the Tories.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    PB Zooming First Tuesday After the First Monday in November is great idea.

    Some quick questions:

    1. for more technically-challenged, what is best way to obtain, install and use (for this particular meeting) Zoom?

    2. how long do you need to set up Zoom and get reasonably up to speed.

    3. what are some basic operational does & don'ts for PB Zoom meetup? For example, is the advice to use headphones to keep down extraneous noise? And how can common Zooming faux pas be avoided?

    4. will there still be provision for standard PBing on this site, and how can it be integrated with PB Zoom (provided that's actually a good thing to do)?

    5. how long is PB Zooming likely to last? And, given time change, what's time diff on Nov 3 between London & NYC?

    Apologize for my crass ignorance & inexperience, but am a true techno-peasant!

  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1320077876545421338

    2 point lead for Labour, Tories on 38 their lowest yet, their support is crumbling
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A friend of mine just voted in Manhattan: he queued four hours to vote.

    I think the longest I've ever waited to vote is about 20 seconds.
    I had to queue for about 5 - 10 minutes in the 2010 GE (Sheffield Central). It's probably about as long as it gets in this country - obviously being a very urban constituency.
    There was a big problem in Sheffield Hallam at that election IIRC. Lots of people weren't able to vote because of poor planning in some areas of the constituency.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gallowgate said:

    Alistair said:

    twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    What do you mean?
    The issue they are ruling on was effectively whether the PA Supreme Court could rule on Pennsylvania local state law.

    The GOP Judges said the PA Supreme Court did not have the authority to do so.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Opinium-Political-Report-22nd-October-2020-.pdf

    Truly terrible numbers for the Tories, Starmer is killing it
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    rcs1000 said:

    A friend of mine just voted in Manhattan: he queued four hours to vote.

    That's part of democracy - I remember the pictures of the queues in South Africa in the first post-apartheid election and in Eastern Europe in the early 90s.

    We may take it for granted - often we do - but there's something hugely impressive about waiting for hours simply to cast a vote, to have your say, to be able to choose who will govern you.

    I'd like to hope one day people in China, North Korea and other authoritarian countries round the world will have the chance to make that choice freely, fairly and without intimidation, voter suppression or legal obfuscation.

    It's a tragic fact those who come to power via the democratic process view said process as something to be abused and controlled.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
    Would think that having THIS be ACB's first SCOTUS vote is NOT what either she OR Justice Roberts could possibly desire.

    So odds on her throwing out lifeline to PA GOP are pretty darn loooooooooooooooooooooooong.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    O/T

    New Scandi drama on BBC4 called DNA.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    I'm delightred for Andy, but note that his rating is only polled in the Greater Manchester area. Suspect Labour does quite well there anyway?
    Not overwhelmingly so. The Tories have 1/3 of the MPs.
    Many with tiny majorities.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Dare to dream of the end of the Tory Party's period in Government? I do
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
    Not in Michigan and Wisconsin with the rulings, and this threatens to be overturned in PA now too.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    Johnson will wait for US election result before no-deal Brexit decision

    Ivan Rogers, former UK ambassador to the EU, says prime minister will think ‘history was going his way’ if Donald Trump is re-elected

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited October 2020
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Chortle.

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1320078159778320384

    Picking Corbyn over Burnham after Miliband's 2015 defeat cost Labour almost a decade further out of power
    But Burnham wasn't/ isn't very good either. Granted streets ahead of Corbyn, but would he have beaten May in the postponed 2020 election. I am not sure.
    He would not have beaten Boris most likely last time but he might have beaten May
    Johnson would have remained a failed former FS without GE2017.
    And if Theresa May had remained PM and not delivered Brexit by then Burnham may well have been elected PM last May with Boris taking over as Leader of the Opposition
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,150
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Opinium-Political-Report-22nd-October-2020-.pdf

    Truly terrible numbers for the Tories, Starmer is killing it

    Calm down, calm down! It's like you've just entered a Wolverhampton pub and shouted "up the Baggies!"
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1320077304555503616?s=19

    Make no mistake. The Republican justices here are voting for the end of Federalism

    The law is pretty clear on this, I thought: if it's postmarked on or before election day, it's counted.
    If votes are seen to be not counted I can foresee trouble.
    This isn't 2000 any more.
This discussion has been closed.