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Tonight’s big event in the White House race – The VP debate – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:
    Don't know why he has to waste time stating the obvious.
  • Not as awful as the first debate. But that one set the bar so high.

    The fly - or the giggling - will be the takeaway.
  • Lol -- all that prep and I dozed off and missed the entire debate.
  • Is the fly-on-Pence thing genuine? It seems like we've seen it before.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    She's always trying to emote but it feels too forced.

    Assuming Biden wins it's going to be a problem for the Dems when he retires because she's not bad enough to clearly need to be ditched but also not good enough to win against a competent opponent.
  • HYUFD said:
    You'd think Luntz would have edited out the echo before the start. The automatic subtitles have Mike Pence as "my pants". Only one respondent thought Harris won.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    edited October 2020
    Harris won the debate IMO, but I'm not an American swing voter. I wasn't bothered by her facial expressions while Pence was talking but maybe that's the sort of thing that annoys a certain type of voter in the US.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    By the sounds of it, I didn't miss much...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    It doesnt sound like the debate achieved much apart from the obvious...the next big thing is the arguing/squabbles over the next Presidential debate a week away (on paper) I suspect there will be as much hot air about is it going ahead and format as the actual event....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Good summary:

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/10/7/21507162/vice-presidential-debate-pence-wins?utm_campaign=mattyglesias&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Kamala was solid enough, she didn't gaffe and per CNN she came out with her favourables enhanced. But Pence never missed a chance to say something swing voters care about, Kamala missed loads.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    "Coronavirus restrictions are to be further tightened in parts of England early next week, with the closure of bars and restaurants a possibility, the BBC has been told.

    There could also be a ban on overnight stays away from home."

    www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457377
  • HYUFD said:
    You'd think Luntz would have edited out the echo before the start. The automatic subtitles have Mike Pence as "my pants". Only one respondent thought Harris won.
    The Luntz focus group should be required viewing for everyone who thinks Zoom calls are a good substitute for in-person meetings. Almost every shortcoming was illustrated, from speakers not appearing, or appearing in sound only, or being badly lit. The automatic subtitles rendered Mike Pence as "my parents", "my pants" or "pissed".

    Respondents were generally disappointed, especially with Kamala Harris. This might be in part because Pence is a known quantity whereas Harris is relatively new to most Americans. The Supreme Court question was raised more than once. People wanted to know what Harris would do as President herself, not the Biden policy.

    The highlight of the focus group was Frank Luntz calling out one of his respondents as having lied about being undecided (Trump-leaning might understate it).

    The livestream ended with a shot of an "update available" window!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    Looks like the fly will be the thing people remember. Kind of symbolic of this Administration. They land on turds.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Coronavirus restrictions are to be further tightened in parts of England early next week, with the closure of bars and restaurants a possibility, the BBC has been told.

    There could also be a ban on overnight stays away from home."

    www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457377

    The government needs to do a better job of explaining the rationale behind the restrictions, not least because otherwise the public cannot be expected to remember a long list of apparently arbitrary rules, let alone obey them. It is telling that Cabinet ministers and even the Prime Minister himself often get the rules wrong when asked obvious, straightforward questions.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited October 2020

    HYUFD said:
    You'd think Luntz would have edited out the echo before the start. The automatic subtitles have Mike Pence as "my pants". Only one respondent thought Harris won.
    The Luntz focus group should be required viewing for everyone who thinks Zoom calls are a good substitute for in-person meetings. Almost every shortcoming was illustrated, from speakers not appearing, or appearing in sound only, or being badly lit. The automatic subtitles rendered Mike Pence as "my parents", "my pants" or "pissed".

    Respondents were generally disappointed, especially with Kamala Harris. This might be in part because Pence is a known quantity whereas Harris is relatively new to most Americans. The Supreme Court question was raised more than once. People wanted to know what Harris would do as President herself, not the Biden policy...
    Imagine the headlines if she’d taken that bait.

    The debate was always likely to be a disappointment, though, as why would a VP take risks when the ticket has a clear lead ? She did what she had to do.

    As 538 noted, “ the first rule of being a VP is to do no harm.”.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I foresee tonight's debate having few long term consequences on the Presidential race.

    Kamala is very far from being BLM, and has a record as a Prosecutor, so I think Pence will struggle to pin urban violence on her.

    Pence is not Trump, and is a far more measured character, and therefore I don't expect Ms Harris to land many blows. (Simply: she's not in court.)

    A good performance from Pence though could ensure he is early frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nomination, assuming Trump loses, remembering of course VP Mondale was Democratic nominee in 1984 after Carter lost in 1980
    If Trump loses, Pence is going to be off the pace. The association with Trump just won't help him for 2024.
    If Trump loses the Democrats will likely be in for 2 or even 3 presidential elections as the GOP were after the defeat of Carter and the Democrats after a single White House term in 1980.

    In which case which other ambitious Republican would bother challenging Pence for the 2024 GOP nomination unless Biden and Harris make an absolute pigs ear of the next 4 years? They will build their careers and polish their CVs in Congress or state politics instead and wait until 2028 or 2032 for a presidential run
    It is worth remembering at this juncture that the Republicans have won the popular vote just once since the end of the Cold War, and then only narrowly. They are resting on a slim, ageing and increasingly isolated segment of the vote. It’s the American Electoral system that keeps them in contention for political honours.

    Whoever Trump’s replacement is, if the Republicans are to continue as a serious party they will need to find a way to broaden the party’s appeal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Andy_JS said:

    "Coronavirus restrictions are to be further tightened in parts of England early next week, with the closure of bars and restaurants a possibility, the BBC has been told.

    There could also be a ban on overnight stays away from home."

    www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457377

    Unless you have childcare issues or need to test your eyesight, of course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    A haemagglutination test for rapid detection of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205831v1
    Serological detection of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is essential for establishing rates of seroconversion in populations, detection of seroconversion after vaccination, and for seeking evidence for a level of antibody that may be protective against COVID-19 disease. Several high-performance commercial tests have been described, but these require centralised laboratory facilities that are comparatively expensive, and therefore not available universally. Red cell agglutination tests have a long history in blood typing, and general serology through linkage of reporter molecules to the red cell surface. They do not require special equipment, are read by eye, have short development times, low cost and can be applied as a Point of Care Test (POCT). We describe a red cell agglutination test for the detection of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD). We show that the Haemagglutination Test (HAT) has a sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 99% for detection of antibodies after a PCR diagnosed infection. The HAT can be titrated, detects rising titres in the first five days of hospital admission, correlates well with a commercial test that detects antibodies to the RBD, and can be applied as a point of care test. The developing reagent is composed of a previously described nanobody to a conserved glycophorin A epitope on red cells, linked to the RBD from SARS-CoV-2. It can be lyophilised for ease of shipping. We have scaled up production of this reagent to one gram, which is sufficient for ten million tests, at a cost of ~0.27 UK pence per test well. Aliquots of this reagent are ready to be supplied to qualified groups anywhere in the world that need to detect antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, but do not have the facilities for high throughput commercial tests.
  • Watching this on catchup. Haven't got to the fly yet - does the fly give better answers than Mike Gilead?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    Seen a few clips. Its a bit boring without the overgrown toddler on stage, a bit too normal.

    I think Pence has a sub conjunctival haemorrhage rather than conjunctivitis. They are generally harmless, sometimes from coughing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Sounds like Harris grinded out precisely what she needed to from the debate.
  • Fascinating that when asked if Indiana should ban all abortion Pence decided to answer another question. "Yes, womenfolk should rear Godly children and stay in the kitchen" may have put people off. So he talked about something else.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Again, skimming back through the PB reaction on the night gives a different impression to the post debate reporting and early polls.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2020

    Is the fly-on-Pence thing genuine? It seems like we've seen it before.

    I would assume it is. Flies always land on decaying matter and pieces of ...... :D:D
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Foxy said:

    sometimes from coughing.

    THAT type of coughing??? :o:)

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I foresee tonight's debate having few long term consequences on the Presidential race.

    Kamala is very far from being BLM, and has a record as a Prosecutor, so I think Pence will struggle to pin urban violence on her.

    Pence is not Trump, and is a far more measured character, and therefore I don't expect Ms Harris to land many blows. (Simply: she's not in court.)

    A good performance from Pence though could ensure he is early frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nomination, assuming Trump loses, remembering of course VP Mondale was Democratic nominee in 1984 after Carter lost in 1980
    If Trump loses, Pence is going to be off the pace. The association with Trump just won't help him for 2024.
    If Trump loses the Democrats will likely be in for 2 or even 3 presidential elections as the GOP were after the defeat of Carter and the Democrats after a single White House term in 1980.

    In which case which other ambitious Republican would bother challenging Pence for the 2024 GOP nomination unless Biden and Harris make an absolute pigs ear of the next 4 years? They will build their careers and polish their CVs in Congress or state politics instead and wait until 2028 or 2032 for a presidential run
    It is worth remembering at this juncture that the Republicans have won the popular vote just once since the end of the Cold War, and then only narrowly. They are resting on a slim, ageing and increasingly isolated segment of the vote. It’s the American Electoral system that keeps them in contention for political honours.

    Whoever Trump’s replacement is, if the Republicans are to continue as a serious party they will need to find a way to broaden the party’s appeal.
    ...or gerrymander the system to further their already sizeable unfair advantage.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Kamala Harris did what she had to do . Pence needed to win this convincingly and to have Harris make a gaff. Interesting gender disparity in the CNN poll but given women vote more than men trouncing Pence there will hardly do the ticket any harm .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    nico679 said:

    Kamala Harris did what she had to do . Pence needed to win this convincingly and to have Harris make a gaff. Interesting gender disparity in the CNN poll but given women vote more than men trouncing Pence there will hardly do the ticket any harm .

    That the PB on-the-night commentators were very heavily male occurs to be as a possible reason why they were off the mark.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Reading the eve of election posts from 2018 mid terms.

    A stunningly large number of people (i.e. Non zero) who thought the Dems would make modest gains at best and not flip the house.

    I wonder what I said...
    I don't know about the day before but you own this post from when results were being counted.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2077681/#Comment_2077681

    Which shows the huge dangers of calling states early this election.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Alistair said:
    It will give a whole new meaning to doing politics on-the-fly ;)

    Or betting on the fly :D:D
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    OMG - It's Roger!!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,717
    Roger said:
    Good to see you back! How is the world of advertising coping with the virus? 😷
  • Aren't flies often thought to be familiars of Satan?
    Just sayin'..
  • Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Reading the eve of election posts from 2018 mid terms.

    A stunningly large number of people (i.e. Non zero) who thought the Dems would make modest gains at best and not flip the house.

    I wonder what I said...
    I don't know about the day before but you own this post from when results were being counted.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2077681/#Comment_2077681

    Which shows the huge dangers of calling states early this election.
    Considering they not only held the Senate (which was expected) but they actually made gains it was an amazing night for them wasn't it? As far as the Senate is concerned.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:
    Good to see you back! How is the world of advertising coping with the virus? 😷
    About the same as the medical profession. For film or Hitchcock fans note the dissolve into the skeleton just before the final shot. One of the most chilling endings to a film I can remember
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    Just noticed 538 model now gives Trump more chance of winning while losing the popular vote (9%), than of winning while winning the popular vote (7%).

    What a bad joke the US system is.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,426

    Good summary:

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/10/7/21507162/vice-presidential-debate-pence-wins?utm_campaign=mattyglesias&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Kamala was solid enough, she didn't gaffe and per CNN she came out with her favourables enhanced. But Pence never missed a chance to say something swing voters care about, Kamala missed loads.

    I think that's a great article. It should seriously concern Democrats that they're so poor at presenting their case.

    It's amazing that the debate on the Supreme Court has been moved on to whether Biden will pack the court, rather than the hypocrisy of the Republicans and the threat that poses to things the American public want: healthcare, freedom of choice on abortion, fair elections, etc.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
    if you can't come up with a better reason not to like her than "she looks impatient", then sorry but guilty as charged I would say.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Andy_JS said:

    "Coronavirus restrictions are to be further tightened in parts of England early next week, with the closure of bars and restaurants a possibility, the BBC has been told.

    There could also be a ban on overnight stays away from home."

    www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457377

    I think the 3 level restriction system (which is basically 1 pandemic normal and 1 level of personal social restriction and 1 level of business restriction prior to full lockdown) may be a level short - looking at the current situation I think two grades of further business tightening prior to full lockdown would be appropriate and would allow grading and minimisation of the business impact of restrictions.

    So the levels would, at a high level, be: full lockdown (similar to March), full closure of business social, outdoor only business social, restricted personal social, base restrictions. These need not necessarily exactly match, in all respects, what we have now. These could be targeted at areas or at particular cohorts.

    So full business social closures could apply, for instance to a subset of wards in the major northern and Midlands university cities (plus Exeter) or could specifically ban all students and staff of X, y, z universities from entering bars or sit down restaurants, with an outdoors only ring thrown slightly wider - perhaps authority wide in the restrictions.

    Eventually authority specific, one day pub closures, might be the way of getting some degree of attendance at outdoor sports going again.


  • So is it unacceptable or acceptable as far as the rule of law is concerned for Jolyon to criticise a Judge. It's hard to keep up nowadays.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    kamski said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
    if you can't come up with a better reason not to like her than "she looks impatient", then sorry but guilty as charged I would say.
    Having watched parts of the debate, it seems to me that Pence has been heavily trained & coached on how not to have mannerisms when speaking/debating in public that might annoy. Hence the plastic politician effect. Quite common in politics in the US, I understand.

    Harris has had less of that, I think. Public speaking training - obviously. But less of the turn-them-into-an-anodyne-waxwork thing.
  • Nice to see you back, Roger.

    Perkins may not have been the world's greatest actor but he was definitely the creepiest! I thought his performance in The Trial was even better than his more famous Psycho role. Interesting guy too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Roger said:
    The skeleton is chilling.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/1314105061665054720

    Out of curiosity, what the fuck are those charities saying about this case?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    tlg86 said:
    On their way to Kemble. Isn't there an aircraft breaker at Kemble?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    She's always trying to emote but it feels too forced.

    Assuming Biden wins it's going to be a problem for the Dems when he retires because she's not bad enough to clearly need to be ditched but also not good enough to win against a competent opponent.
    Yes, it’s a tricky one for the Democrats. I know we have CNN sample polls being posted to give the impression Harris steamrollered over Pence but I think she would become unpopular pretty quickly, a lot because, as you said, she tries to emote when clearly she doesn’t care (I found her answer to the Kayla Mueller thing cringeworthy - yup, like Joe really gave a f•ck).

    One thing to consider (betting wise) in terms of an October surprise is concerns over Biden’s health suddenly spring up because there will be a lot more focus on Harris and, based on last night, she could become a liability.

    If I was the Republicans, meanwhile, I would be doing clips of all her “Joe...” clips from last night and interspersing them with what she said about him during the nomination run.

    Thanks also for the Vox link - I think that’s pretty fair. What I remember from the debate this morning is the $2000/4000 lines do Biden putting up taxes but I can’t remember one of Harris’ lines

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
    Does it ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859
    edited October 2020

    Good summary:

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/10/7/21507162/vice-presidential-debate-pence-wins?utm_campaign=mattyglesias&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Kamala was solid enough, she didn't gaffe and per CNN she came out with her favourables enhanced. But Pence never missed a chance to say something swing voters care about, Kamala missed loads.

    I think that's a great article. It should seriously concern Democrats that they're so poor at presenting their case.

    It's amazing that the debate on the Supreme Court has been moved on to whether Biden will pack the court, rather than the hypocrisy of the Republicans and the threat that poses to things the American public want: healthcare, freedom of choice on abortion, fair elections, etc.
    I agree, its an excellent piece of analysis. The one criticism I would make is that while they picked up on the Pence habit of talking over the female moderator and Harris being annoying to women they seemed to have underplayed it. The gender differentiation showing in the polling is massive and it is clear women really didn't like it.

    Once again Harris seems to have underperformed a bit given her skills and experience in litigation. I expected her to do better. If I was going to completely over generalise it is the roll of the prosecutor to be steady, predictable, measured and to present the case fairly. It's defence counsel who have to use the razzmatazz to divert, confuse or obfuscate.

    She really should be picking up on failures to answer the question though. That's basic.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366

    Alistair said:
    It will give a whole new meaning to doing politics on-the-fly ;)

    Or betting on the fly :D:D
    No flies on Harris.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
    Does it ?
    Well, yes or at least it appears - you said “perhaps a gendered response” which suggests criticism of Harris’performance is coming from a gender standpoint.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    So, am I right to summarise that the VP debate produced no stand out zinger or argument that will change the coming vote one jot?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
    Does it ?
    Well, yes or at least it appears - you said “perhaps a gendered response” which suggests criticism of Harris’performance is coming from a gender standpoint.
    I wasn't criticising your reaction (hence 'perhaps') - rather pointing out that it's likely very different to the reaction of the half of the population which isn't male, as the polls bear out.
  • So, am I right to summarise that the VP debate produced no stand out zinger or argument that will change the coming vote one jot?

    If so, that is a clear win for Biden/Harris .

    GOP running out of days and events to turn this around.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463

    So, am I right to summarise that the VP debate produced no stand out zinger or argument that will change the coming vote one jot?

    That's the impression I've gained, too. And Good Morning to all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    I wonder in what universe the VP debate had an impact on the race, even if they failed so badly they had to resign the ticket, it wouldn’t change much.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    kamski said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
    if you can't come up with a better reason not to like her than "she looks impatient", then sorry but guilty as charged I would say.
    That’s up to you but that’s your own opinion and not some standard of truth. You are not exactly coming from an unbiased standpoint.

    The comments about Harris’ mannerisms have been a constant criticism throughout her campaigns and seen to be the biggest drawback in a way it wasn’t if Warren and Klob. It was clear from the panel group’s reactions at the time, they really didn’t like them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    edited October 2020

    So is it unacceptable or acceptable as far as the rule of law is concerned for Jolyon to criticise a Judge. It's hard to keep up nowadays.
    It's another irregular verb -

    I stand for justice
    You are insulting the law
    He/She is destroying society
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:
    Good to see you back! How is the world of advertising coping with the virus? 😷
    About the same as the medical profession. For film or Hitchcock fans note the dissolve into the skeleton just before the final shot. One of the most chilling endings to a film I can remember
    Thanks. I’ve never noticed that before, and it’s a film I’ve seen at least half a dozen times. The last time I saw it was at the Camden Roundhouse with a full orchestra playing the Herrmann score live.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2020

    Good summary:

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/10/7/21507162/vice-presidential-debate-pence-wins?utm_campaign=mattyglesias&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Kamala was solid enough, she didn't gaffe and per CNN she came out with her favourables enhanced. But Pence never missed a chance to say something swing voters care about, Kamala missed loads.

    I think that's a great article. It should seriously concern Democrats that they're so poor at presenting their case.

    It's amazing that the debate on the Supreme Court has been moved on to whether Biden will pack the court, rather than the hypocrisy of the Republicans and the threat that poses to things the American public want: healthcare, freedom of choice on abortion, fair elections, etc.
    TBF it's not like they lack talented people who can get frame an argument for swing voters; Bill Clinton could, Obama could, Biden's not too bad at it, Buttigieg and KLOBUCHAR are excellent. The problem is that if Biden wins he now has an heir apparent who can't, and she has a historic aspect to her candidacy (first black women) that's going to make her hard to replace with someone who can.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    DavidL said:

    Good summary:

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/10/7/21507162/vice-presidential-debate-pence-wins?utm_campaign=mattyglesias&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Kamala was solid enough, she didn't gaffe and per CNN she came out with her favourables enhanced. But Pence never missed a chance to say something swing voters care about, Kamala missed loads.

    I think that's a great article. It should seriously concern Democrats that they're so poor at presenting their case.

    It's amazing that the debate on the Supreme Court has been moved on to whether Biden will pack the court, rather than the hypocrisy of the Republicans and the threat that poses to things the American public want: healthcare, freedom of choice on abortion, fair elections, etc.
    I agree, its an excellent piece of analysis. The one criticism I would make is that while they picked up on the Pence habit of talking over the female moderator and Harris being annoying to women they seemed to have underplayed it. The gender differentiation showing in the polling is massive and it is clear women really didn't like it.

    Once again Harris seems to have underperformed a bit given her skills and experience in litigation. I expected her to do better. If I was going to completely over generalise it is the roll of the prosecutor to be steady, predictable, measured and to present the case fairly. It's defence counsel who have to use the razzmatazz to divert, confuse or obfuscate.

    She really should be picking up on failures to answer the question though. That's basic.
    I think that’s a UK view of the prosecutor David but not in the US. It’s a political job and your aim (often) is to use it as a springboard. Also, the guilty plea rate is often high because prosecutors use the threat of draconian sentences to persuade people to plead guilty.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Jonathan said:

    I wonder in what universe the VP debate had an impact on the race, even if they failed so badly they had to resign the ticket, it wouldn’t change much.

    Dan Quayle tested that proposition to destruction.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    edited October 2020
    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
    Does it ?
    Well, yes or at least it appears - you said “perhaps a gendered response” which suggests criticism of Harris’performance is coming from a gender standpoint.
    I wasn't criticising your reaction (hence 'perhaps') - rather pointing out that it's likely very different to the reaction of the half of the population which isn't male, as the polls bear out.
    TBF the polling will at least partly be reflecting the fact that Biden-Harris has a bigger lead among women than among men, so perhaps a partisan response?

    I'm wondering though if "impatient" is a bad look for a woman, but not a bad look for a man.
    Haven't seen any of the debate, so can't really comment. It is just theatre, someone pulled faces, someone else had a fly land on them. I wish we just didn't pay attention to such crap, are we 6-year-olds?
    If debates have to happen, they should be audio only. Just like when orchestras audition new musicians.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Oh Hodges, you really are as stupid as your mother suggested!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1314101556413947904

    For the strategy the government is pursuing (which increasingly I don't agree with) then opening the universities this autumn has been a disaster.

    Nottingham as an example was running at around 12-15 cases a day in early to mid September and then suddenly kaboom! Now around 300-odd.

    Now, if these are genuine cases (and not students who have normal freshers cold and flu who are getting tested and being told covid positive (i.e. false positives) then reopening unis this autumn was a massive blunder. It has bought the virus into towns that basically were running at a very low level of infection.

    It might work out as this will burn itself out amongst the students, if they are mainly kept on campus, and they will get some level of immunity. BUT, this is not the strategy of the government. It is the opposite of what they claim to be trying to achieve.

  • tlg86 said:
    Sad day for a great aircraft

    Flown the world over in 747s
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Jonathan said:

    I wonder in what universe the VP debate had an impact on the race, even if they failed so badly they had to resign the ticket, it wouldn’t change much.

    One way or the other, the election is all about Trump.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    MrEd said:

    I’m up because I’m not feeling great so decided to watch a bit of this.

    It’s funny with what Luntz’s focus group said because it’s my reaction. She looks impatient and the purses lips don’t help.

    I think it comes back to being a Prosecutor in the US. You’re use to steamrolling the other side and bullying them so it’s a bit disconcerting when you have to actually debate them on equal terms

    Perhaps a gendered response.
    https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1314030594351824896
    Not really. I think it has to do more with her previous role, hence the comment I made at the time last night. And Harris has always been criticised for a number of her mannerisms during the Democratic race, it was one of the key things voters didn’t like about her. No one said that re Warren and Klob.

    However, it was interesting during the debate, on Luntz’s Twitter feed, and the panel’s comments, the pro-Harris comments were all essentially accusing the panel of not liking a woman of colour, or that they couldn’t take a b•tch face so I guess that’s the line of attack If anyone criticises Harris (which your post demonstrates)
    Does it ?
    Well, yes or at least it appears - you said “perhaps a gendered response” which suggests criticism of Harris’performance is coming from a gender standpoint.
    I wasn't criticising your reaction (hence 'perhaps') - rather pointing out that it's likely very different to the reaction of the half of the population which isn't male, as the polls bear out.
    Ah sorry Nigel, my mistake so apologies. I’d want to see a bit more on the gender split than a CNN poll...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Looks like the 747 destined for St Athan is returning to Heathrow:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/BAW747/25b6c7c4
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Not sure if you need a login to see this but the Spectator’s view on last night;

    https://spectator.us/pence-harris-vice-presidential-debate-winner/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    tlg86 said:

    Looks like the 747 destined for St Athan is returning to Heathrow:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/BAW747/25b6c7c4

    A death row reprieve! Maybe the Govt has bought it as an asylum seeker transporter.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    tlg86 said:
    Sad day for a great aircraft

    Flown the world over in 747s
    Off topic

    They have a handful sat on the apron of the BA maintenance facility at Cardiff Airport. These planes were only just refurbished and recommissioned. I flew on one of them from the US in February.

    End of an impressive era for the big bird.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020

    https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1314101556413947904

    For the strategy the government is pursuing (which increasingly I don't agree with) then opening the universities this autumn has been a disaster.

    Nottingham as an example was running at around 12-15 cases a day in early to mid September and then suddenly kaboom! Now around 300-odd.

    Now, if these are genuine cases (and not students who have normal freshers cold and flu who are getting tested and being told covid positive (i.e. false positives) then reopening unis this autumn was a massive blunder. It has bought the virus into towns that basically were running at a very low level of infection.

    It might work out as this will burn itself out amongst the students, if they are mainly kept on campus, and they will get some level of immunity. BUT, this is not the strategy of the government. It is the opposite of what they claim to be trying to achieve.

    How anyone can look at the figures and conclude that the problem (of rising case numbers) is hospitality venues and not universities is a mystery. And given the conditions that most university students live in, there is absolutely zero to stop it spreading among them until it burns out. Even under the most restrictive lockdowns.

    (I'm not paying much attention to these absurd rules that some universities seem to be trying about telling students to stay in their rooms at all times without having any social contact with the people they live directly with)
  • tlg86 said:
    Sad day for a great aircraft

    Flown the world over in 747s
    Off topic

    They have a handful sat on the apron of the BA maintenance facility at Cardiff Airport. These planes were only just refurbished and recommissioned. I flew on one of them from the US in February.

    End of an impressive era for the big bird.
    I have flown Heathrow to Sydney, Heathrow to Buenos Aires, Heathrow to Vancouver, Beijing to Heathrow, Tokyo to Heathrow and many more flights on this great aircraft

    Much nostalgia today
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    I’ve just watched some of the debate.

    Kamala is quite sassy isn’t she? And of course very attractive which shouldn’t matter but does.

    Not sure why PB had decided it knows better than the data.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    No, but seriously, was there an overnight count in Guernsey?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    alex_ said:

    https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1314101556413947904

    For the strategy the government is pursuing (which increasingly I don't agree with) then opening the universities this autumn has been a disaster.

    Nottingham as an example was running at around 12-15 cases a day in early to mid September and then suddenly kaboom! Now around 300-odd.

    Now, if these are genuine cases (and not students who have normal freshers cold and flu who are getting tested and being told covid positive (i.e. false positives) then reopening unis this autumn was a massive blunder. It has bought the virus into towns that basically were running at a very low level of infection.

    It might work out as this will burn itself out amongst the students, if they are mainly kept on campus, and they will get some level of immunity. BUT, this is not the strategy of the government. It is the opposite of what they claim to be trying to achieve.

    How anyone can look at the figures and conclude that the problem (of rising case numbers) is hospitality venues and not universities is a mystery. And given the conditions that most university students live in, there is absolutely zero to stop it spreading among them until it burns out. Even under the most restrictive lockdowns.

    (I'm not paying much attention to these absurd rules that some universities seem to be trying about telling students to stay in their rooms at all times without having any social contact with the people they live directly with)
    Quite a bit of university accommodation is *designed* so that people *have* to mix together.

    Yes, that is the actual justification given for communal kitchens etc. Apparently, they were "worried" about students living in isolation in their own little flats.

    The Gods must be laughing about that.

    Being way cheaper to build and maintain is purely accidental. Of course.
  • MrEd said:

    Not sure if you need a login to see this but the Spectator’s view on last night;

    https://spectator.us/pence-harris-vice-presidential-debate-winner/

    This cry of "fake news!" is not a promising start for the Spectator:
    Pence takes Harris to the cleaners in VP debate
    But most of the media will fashion Harris into a girlboss who resisted Pence’s mansplaining effors [sic]
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Just watching the re-run of the debate on CNN and I’m surprised that the poll doesn’t show Harris winning by more .

    Really impressed with her , very passionate compared to the mannequin Pence. Going after the administration on healthcare several times was a very good strategy .

    And that issue really hurt the GOP in 2018.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I’ve just watched some of the debate.

    Kamala is quite sassy isn’t she? And of course very attractive which shouldn’t matter but does.

    Not sure why PB had decided it knows better than the data.

    The Venn diagram of people who predicted the GOP would retain their majority in the midterms and who think Biden bettors are letting their emotions cloud their thinking is a circle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    alex_ said:

    https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1314101556413947904

    For the strategy the government is pursuing (which increasingly I don't agree with) then opening the universities this autumn has been a disaster.

    Nottingham as an example was running at around 12-15 cases a day in early to mid September and then suddenly kaboom! Now around 300-odd.

    Now, if these are genuine cases (and not students who have normal freshers cold and flu who are getting tested and being told covid positive (i.e. false positives) then reopening unis this autumn was a massive blunder. It has bought the virus into towns that basically were running at a very low level of infection.

    It might work out as this will burn itself out amongst the students, if they are mainly kept on campus, and they will get some level of immunity. BUT, this is not the strategy of the government. It is the opposite of what they claim to be trying to achieve.

    How anyone can look at the figures and conclude that the problem (of rising case numbers) is hospitality venues and not universities is a mystery. And given the conditions that most university students live in, there is absolutely zero to stop it spreading among them until it burns out. Even under the most restrictive lockdowns.

    (I'm not paying much attention to these absurd rules that some universities seem to be trying about telling students to stay in their rooms at all times without having any social contact with the people they live directly with)
    Quite a bit of university accommodation is *designed* so that people *have* to mix together.

    Yes, that is the actual justification given for communal kitchens etc. Apparently, they were "worried" about students living in isolation in their own little flats.

    The Gods must be laughing about that.

    Being way cheaper to build and maintain is purely accidental. Of course.
    Have we had a single report of a student being hospitalised with covid in this current "wave"?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    Not sure if you need a login to see this but the Spectator’s view on last night;

    https://spectator.us/pence-harris-vice-presidential-debate-winner/

    This cry of "fake news!" is not a promising start for the Spectator:
    Pence takes Harris to the cleaners in VP debate
    But most of the media will fashion Harris into a girlboss who resisted Pence’s mansplaining effors [sic]
    I think they were looking for a catchy headline!!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    MrEd said:

    Not sure if you need a login to see this but the Spectator’s view on last night;

    https://spectator.us/pence-harris-vice-presidential-debate-winner/

    This cry of "fake news!" is not a promising start for the Spectator:
    Pence takes Harris to the cleaners in VP debate
    But most of the media will fashion Harris into a girlboss who resisted Pence’s mansplaining effors [sic]
    The irony seems lost on Amber Athey or maybe the whole article is meant to be ironic?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,426
    alex_ said:

    https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1314101556413947904

    For the strategy the government is pursuing (which increasingly I don't agree with) then opening the universities this autumn has been a disaster.

    Nottingham as an example was running at around 12-15 cases a day in early to mid September and then suddenly kaboom! Now around 300-odd.

    Now, if these are genuine cases (and not students who have normal freshers cold and flu who are getting tested and being told covid positive (i.e. false positives) then reopening unis this autumn was a massive blunder. It has bought the virus into towns that basically were running at a very low level of infection.

    It might work out as this will burn itself out amongst the students, if they are mainly kept on campus, and they will get some level of immunity. BUT, this is not the strategy of the government. It is the opposite of what they claim to be trying to achieve.

    How anyone can look at the figures and conclude that the problem (of rising case numbers) is hospitality venues and not universities is a mystery. And given the conditions that most university students live in, there is absolutely zero to stop it spreading among them until it burns out. Even under the most restrictive lockdowns.

    (I'm not paying much attention to these absurd rules that some universities seem to be trying about telling students to stay in their rooms at all times without having any social contact with the people they live directly with)
    My daughter is now self-isolating because one of the other students in her university flat has tested positive. Their shared bathroom does not have a window. It seems inevitable that the other four in the flat will catch it from the positive case.

    Presumably one of those four will eventually exhibit symptoms and test positive towards the end of their 14 day isolation period - resetting the clock for another 14 days.

    I would have thought that if they were trying to control the spread that they would put positive cases into a designated hall of residence, separate from their close contacts. There is a bizarre mix of fatalism and horror at the results of that fatalism.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    alex_ said:

    https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1314101556413947904

    For the strategy the government is pursuing (which increasingly I don't agree with) then opening the universities this autumn has been a disaster.

    Nottingham as an example was running at around 12-15 cases a day in early to mid September and then suddenly kaboom! Now around 300-odd.

    Now, if these are genuine cases (and not students who have normal freshers cold and flu who are getting tested and being told covid positive (i.e. false positives) then reopening unis this autumn was a massive blunder. It has bought the virus into towns that basically were running at a very low level of infection.

    It might work out as this will burn itself out amongst the students, if they are mainly kept on campus, and they will get some level of immunity. BUT, this is not the strategy of the government. It is the opposite of what they claim to be trying to achieve.

    How anyone can look at the figures and conclude that the problem (of rising case numbers) is hospitality venues and not universities is a mystery. And given the conditions that most university students live in, there is absolutely zero to stop it spreading among them until it burns out. Even under the most restrictive lockdowns.

    (I'm not paying much attention to these absurd rules that some universities seem to be trying about telling students to stay in their rooms at all times without having any social contact with the people they live directly with)
    Civil Servant: The numbers for the university towns are horrendous.

    Senior aide: Gavin can't survive another disaster on his watch and then we might have to put someone in cabinet who knows what they are doing. Look at the numbers again.

    Civil Servant: Oh yes, now I peer at them from another angle, it looks like pubs are spreading the virus more than universities.

    Senior aide: See, that wasn't difficult was it?
This discussion has been closed.