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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: December 19th 2013

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited December 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: December 19th 2013

Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence)
Result: Lab 744 (51% -22% on 2012), Con 325 (23% +6% on 2012), UKIP 252 (18%), Green 60 (4%), Lib Dem 53 (4% -6%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 419 (28%) on a swing of 14% from Labour to Conservative since 2012

Read the full story here


Comments

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    So UKIP nearly but not quite and failing to make the gains in by elections that they managed back in the May locals.

    Labour holding onto safe seats but leeching votes in massive swings against them (14% to Con; 20% to UKIP).

    Cons holding most seats under attack mainly from UKIP.

    Scotland arthritic under STV voting system.

    Lib Dems nowhere until they pop up and grab a rural Lincolnshire seat taking sizeable chunks of UKIP and Con votes.

    Conclusion: Absolutely nothing here to suggest Labour is going to be an electoral threat in 2015. Conservative defences solid. UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane. Lib Dems still capable of springing local triumph. Scotland impenetrable.

    Tories can enjoy their Christmas breaks free from the worries of electoral defeat.

  • AveryLP said:

    So UKIP nearly but not quite and failing to make the gains in by elections that they managed back in the May locals.

    Labour holding onto safe seats but leeching votes in massive swings against them (14% to Con; 20% to UKIP).

    Cons holding most seats under attack mainly from UKIP.

    Scotland arthritic under STV voting system.

    Lib Dems nowhere until they pop up and grab a rural Lincolnshire seat taking sizeable chunks of UKIP and Con votes.

    Conclusion: Absolutely nothing here to suggest Labour is going to be an electoral threat in 2015. Conservative defences solid. UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane. Lib Dems still capable of springing local triumph. Scotland impenetrable.

    Tories can enjoy their Christmas breaks free from the worries of electoral threat.

    Other views will soon be forthcoming!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:

    UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane.

    Careful - one of our less human posters might latch on to that and repeat it over and over again in the run up to the 2014 elections!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AveryLP said:

    So UKIP nearly but not quite and failing to make the gains in by elections that they managed back in the May locals.

    Labour holding onto safe seats but leeching votes in massive swings against them (14% to Con; 20% to UKIP).

    Cons holding most seats under attack mainly from UKIP.

    Scotland arthritic under STV voting system.

    Lib Dems nowhere until they pop up and grab a rural Lincolnshire seat taking sizeable chunks of UKIP and Con votes.

    Conclusion: Absolutely nothing here to suggest Labour is going to be an electoral threat in 2015. Conservative defences solid. UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane. Lib Dems still capable of springing local triumph. Scotland impenetrable.

    Tories can enjoy their Christmas breaks free from the worries of electoral defeat.

    Be careful what you drink over the holidays AveryLP, you will need a clear head in 2014. Anyway Merry Christmas to you and all PBers.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane.

    Careful - one of our less human posters might latch on to that and repeat it over and over again in the run up to the 2014 elections!
    Yes, tim.
  • AveryLP said:

    So UKIP nearly but not quite and failing to make the gains in by elections that they managed back in the May locals.

    Labour holding onto safe seats but leeching votes in massive swings against them (14% to Con; 20% to UKIP).

    Cons holding most seats under attack mainly from UKIP.

    Scotland arthritic under STV voting system.

    Lib Dems nowhere until they pop up and grab a rural Lincolnshire seat taking sizeable chunks of UKIP and Con votes.

    Conclusion: Absolutely nothing here to suggest Labour is going to be an electoral threat in 2015. Conservative defences solid. UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane. Lib Dems still capable of springing local triumph. Scotland impenetrable.

    Tories can enjoy their Christmas breaks free from the worries of electoral defeat.

    The quoted 20% Lab to UKIP swing, while technically accurate, is a bit misleading as UKIP didn't stand last time so are coming off a zero base. Similarly, the 14% swing in Bolton is mathematically correct but again mainly the result of a UKIP intervention where they previously had no candidate and a very high Labour previous share, though the fact that the Tory share also went up is perhaps of note.

    I do wonder whether swing is still a concept worth using. It was developed in the days of two parties dominating the entire GB political landscape. With today's fragmented system, many parties, even more X/Y battlegrounds, local and regional exceptions and so on, the notion of UNS - which was the reason for calculating swing in the first place - may be so inapplicable as to greatly diminish its value. But then if we don't use it, what better alternative have we?
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227
    AveryLP said:

    So UKIP nearly but not quite and failing to make the gains in by elections that they managed back in the May locals.

    Labour holding onto safe seats but leeching votes in massive swings against them (14% to Con; 20% to UKIP).

    Cons holding most seats under attack mainly from UKIP.

    Lib Dems nowhere until they pop up and grab a rural Lincolnshire seat taking sizeable chunks of UKIP and Con votes.

    Conclusion: Absolutely nothing here to suggest Labour is going to be an electoral threat in 2015. Conservative defences solid. UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane. Lib Dems still capable of springing local triumph.

    Tories can enjoy their Christmas breaks free from the worries of electoral defeat.

    I do have some sympathy for this view, however there is a problem.

    Ukip are now starting to run a lot more candidates. This means voters get more chance to vote ukip, and once they start they will self identify as ukip voters and are more likely to remain ukip voters simply because they will now be offered the choice.

    The threat to the tories is tactical voting benefiting ukip.

    For labour, it is the softness of their vote.

    For ukip it is not making a breakthrough in 2015.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Gaius said:

    AveryLP said:

    So UKIP nearly but not quite and failing to make the gains in by elections that they managed back in the May locals.

    Labour holding onto safe seats but leeching votes in massive swings against them (14% to Con; 20% to UKIP).

    Cons holding most seats under attack mainly from UKIP.

    Lib Dems nowhere until they pop up and grab a rural Lincolnshire seat taking sizeable chunks of UKIP and Con votes.

    Conclusion: Absolutely nothing here to suggest Labour is going to be an electoral threat in 2015. Conservative defences solid. UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane. Lib Dems still capable of springing local triumph.

    Tories can enjoy their Christmas breaks free from the worries of electoral defeat.

    I do have some sympathy for this view, however there is a problem.

    Ukip are now starting to run a lot more candidates. This means voters get more chance to vote ukip, and once they start they will self identify as ukip voters and are more likely to remain ukip voters simply because they will now be offered the choice.

    The threat to the tories is tactical voting benefiting ukip.

    For labour, it is the softness of their vote.

    For ukip it is not making a breakthrough in 2015.

    UKIP (hi MikeK!) are certainly fielding a lot more candidates.

    But one must examine the current situation re. UK politics. The traditional NOTA party is now, of all things, in government. The Greens are obviously not a rallying cry for NOTAs as they have a specific agenda which 99.99% of people find unadjacent to reality.

    So who does that leave? Step forward...UKIP.

    They have tapped into several hot topics such as immigration, Europe, net revenue on exports minus payments for imports (kidding: UKIP have no view or idea about this).

    And so people are only too happy to tick the UKIP/NOTA box today.

    But come GE2015 "the people" will have far more sense and UKIP are destined for way <5%.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    I mourn tim's loss far more than I did Madiba's.

    Can anyone explain this Tory grief?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AveryLP said:

    I mourn tim's loss far more than I did Madiba's.

    Can anyone explain this Tory grief?

    Because whether you like him or not [ all PBTories dislike him ] his intelligence, wit and knowledge [ both betting as well as political ] is sadly and badly being missed !

  • Tim is the crack cocaine of the PB Hodges. When he is here aim posts at him, then complain how many times he posts. When he is not here always constantly talk about him or accuse other posters of being him.

    Tim, may be gone but never forgotten.....not even for one thread.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2013
    The problem is this:

    Every piece needs a villain.

    Sherlock has his Moriaty, Superman his Lex Luther
    War opponents in the early naughties in the early 2000s had Tony Blair and George Bush, Star Wars it's Darth Vader.

    Tim was the baddy of the piece, the villain, the conniving Blofeld sitting in Wirral Towers stroking his cat, masterminding the Labour message.

    This is what is being felt.

    He was also a fucking brilliant source of betting info :/

    Efit: It is all true except the cat. He hates cats :P
  • One last poll to go and if there is still a Labour lead Avery LP will need help moving his polling crossover goalposts for yet another wander.....tic toc tic toc.

    It's Christmas Avery LP, I will take the left post.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The problem is this:

    Every piece needs a villain.

    Sherlock has his Moriaty, Superman his Lex Luther
    War opponents in the early naughties in the early 2000s had Tony Blair and George Bush, Star Wars it's Darth Vader.

    Tim was the baddy of the piece, the villain, the conniving Blofeld sitting in Wirral Towers stroking his cat, masterminding the Labour message.

    This is what is being felt.

    He was also a fucking brilliant source of betting info :/

    Efit: It is all true except the cat. He hates cats :P

    Err......Hi Tim.
  • Obviously, if I was Tim, I would be laughing my cock off at these whoppers who have for so long derided me, but cannot go through a thread without mentioning me.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited December 2013
    TOPPING said:


    But come GE2015 "the people" will have far more sense and UKIP are destined for way <5%.</p>

    So you're saying that despite becoming the NOTA party in UK politics and gaining vastly more publicity than they had in 2010, they've record a similar number of votes? Sorry, but I can't see it. Maybe they don't keep the double-digit score they're showing so far, but I'd be staggered if they less than doubled their 2010 performance. 6% minimum. In fact, if you are that sure I'd be willing to put money on it.

    EDIT: Off to bed now. If you respond in the affirmative will be happy to work out terms tomorrow.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    One last poll to go and if there is still a Labour lead Avery LP will need help moving his polling crossover goalposts for yet another wander.....tic toc tic toc.

    It's Christmas Avery LP, I will take the left post.

    Anyone else think it would be kinda funny if the final YG of the year showed a 1% Tory lead? Just to throw us all right at the death of the year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Quincel said:

    One last poll to go and if there is still a Labour lead Avery LP will need help moving his polling crossover goalposts for yet another wander.....tic toc tic toc.

    It's Christmas Avery LP, I will take the left post.

    Anyone else think it would be kinda funny if the final YG of the year showed a 1% Tory lead? Just to throw us all right at the death of the year.
    So long as the Lib Dems are under 14%. (Or might be 15)
  • TOPPING said:

    Gaius said:

    AveryLP said:

    So UKIP nearly but not quite and failing to make the gains in by elections that they managed back in the May locals.

    Labour holding onto safe seats but leeching votes in massive swings against them (14% to Con; 20% to UKIP).

    Cons holding most seats under attack mainly from UKIP.

    Lib Dems nowhere until they pop up and grab a rural Lincolnshire seat taking sizeable chunks of UKIP and Con votes.

    Conclusion: Absolutely nothing here to suggest Labour is going to be an electoral threat in 2015. Conservative defences solid. UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane. Lib Dems still capable of springing local triumph.

    Tories can enjoy their Christmas breaks free from the worries of electoral defeat.

    I do have some sympathy for this view, however there is a problem.

    Ukip are now starting to run a lot more candidates. This means voters get more chance to vote ukip, and once they start they will self identify as ukip voters and are more likely to remain ukip voters simply because they will now be offered the choice.

    The threat to the tories is tactical voting benefiting ukip.

    For labour, it is the softness of their vote.

    For ukip it is not making a breakthrough in 2015.

    UKIP (hi MikeK!) are certainly fielding a lot more candidates.

    But one must examine the current situation re. UK politics. The traditional NOTA party is now, of all things, in government. The Greens are obviously not a rallying cry for NOTAs as they have a specific agenda which 99.99% of people find unadjacent to reality.

    So who does that leave? Step forward...UKIP.

    They have tapped into several hot topics such as immigration, Europe, net revenue on exports minus payments for imports (kidding: UKIP have no view or idea about this).

    And so people are only too happy to tick the UKIP/NOTA box today.

    But come GE2015 "the people" will have far more sense and UKIP are destined for way <5%.</p>
    We shall see but your view seems too simplistic and epitomises the wishful thinking of Crosby and Co.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited December 2013
    Quincel said:

    TOPPING said:


    But come GE2015 "the people" will have far more sense and UKIP are destined for way <5%.</p>

    So you're saying that despite becoming the NOTA party in UK politics and gaining vastly more publicity than they had in 2010, they've record a similar number of votes? Sorry, but I can't see it. Maybe they don't keep the double-digit score they're showing so far, but I'd be staggered if they less than doubled their 2010 performance. 6% minimum. In fact, if you are that sure I'd be willing to put money on it.

    Ukip gaining less than 5% is more a hope for the PB Hodges than anything else. It also highlights which party will lose more and is more scared of a Ukip surge.
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227
    TOPPING said:



    UKIP (hi MikeK!) are certainly fielding a lot more candidates.

    But one must examine the current situation re. UK politics. The traditional NOTA party is now, of all things, in government. The Greens are obviously not a rallying cry for NOTAs as they have a specific agenda which 99.99% of people find unadjacent to reality.

    So who does that leave? Step forward...UKIP.

    They have tapped into several hot topics such as immigration, Europe, net revenue on exports minus payments for imports (kidding: UKIP have no view or idea about this).

    And so people are only too happy to tick the UKIP/NOTA box today.

    But come GE2015 "the people" will have far more sense and UKIP are destined for way <5%.</p>

    Agreed on ukip being the NOTA party, but that is not all they are.

    They are also the tactical voters party, the dissatisfied tories party, the only alternative for soft labour, and even the party for those who agree with their policies (such as they are) party.

    Doe you honestly think the average voter understands or even cares about balance of payments? If so you are clearly bonkers. We, the political nerds are the oddities, the average guy in the street isn't bothered.

    Whilst there will be some who drift back to the other parties, others will drift the other way.

    To suggest they will go back to <5 just because thats what happened in the past is simplistic in the extreme.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pulpstar said:

    This is what is being felt.

    It's more like that odd sense of loss one feels when the floating turd which just won't flush finally succumbs to the power of the cistern.

    No matter how far out of sight it has disappeared off into the grim and eternal darkness sewer, you know that it will always be, in some strange way, a part of you.

  • TOPPING said:

    Gaius said:

    AveryLP said:

    So UKIP nearly but not quite and failing to make the gains in by elections that they managed back in the May locals.

    Labour holding onto safe seats but leeching votes in massive swings against them (14% to Con; 20% to UKIP).

    Cons holding most seats under attack mainly from UKIP.

    Lib Dems nowhere until they pop up and grab a rural Lincolnshire seat taking sizeable chunks of UKIP and Con votes.

    Conclusion: Absolutely nothing here to suggest Labour is going to be an electoral threat in 2015. Conservative defences solid. UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane. Lib Dems still capable of springing local triumph.

    Tories can enjoy their Christmas breaks free from the worries of electoral defeat.

    I do have some sympathy for this view, however there is a problem.

    Ukip are now starting to run a lot more candidates. This means voters get more chance to vote ukip, and once they start they will self identify as ukip voters and are more likely to remain ukip voters simply because they will now be offered the choice.

    The threat to the tories is tactical voting benefiting ukip.

    For labour, it is the softness of their vote.

    For ukip it is not making a breakthrough in 2015.

    UKIP (hi MikeK!) are certainly fielding a lot more candidates.

    But one must examine the current situation re. UK politics. The traditional NOTA party is now, of all things, in government. The Greens are obviously not a rallying cry for NOTAs as they have a specific agenda which 99.99% of people find unadjacent to reality.

    So who does that leave? Step forward...UKIP.

    They have tapped into several hot topics such as immigration, Europe, net revenue on exports minus payments for imports (kidding: UKIP have no view or idea about this).

    And so people are only too happy to tick the UKIP/NOTA box today.

    But come GE2015 "the people" will have far more sense and UKIP are destined for way <5%.</p>
    We shall see but your view seems too simplistic and epitomises the wishful thinking of Crosby and Co.
    It must be nearly Xmas.....we agree on something.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited December 2013
    Quincel said:

    One last poll to go and if there is still a Labour lead Avery LP will need help moving his polling crossover goalposts for yet another wander.....tic toc tic toc.

    It's Christmas Avery LP, I will take the left post.

    Anyone else think it would be kinda funny if the final YG of the year showed a 1% Tory lead? Just to throw us all right at the death of the year.
    Hilarious......err, no. Though it would save me helping carry Avery LP's crossover goalposts.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited December 2013
    Quincel said:

    TOPPING said:


    But come GE2015 "the people" will have far more sense and UKIP are destined for way <5%.</p>

    So you're saying that despite becoming the NOTA party in UK politics and gaining vastly more publicity than they had in 2010, they've record a similar number of votes? Sorry, but I can't see it. Maybe they don't keep the double-digit score they're showing so far, but I'd be staggered if they less than doubled their 2010 performance. 6% minimum. In fact, if you are that sure I'd be willing to put money on it.

    EDIT: Off to bed now. If you respond in the affirmative will be happy to work out terms tomorrow.
    Hope you slept well.

    @Sam has offered me super great odds on my views on the GE2015 UKIP % vote and I have declined because I have found that betting can sour things not to say what amount of money do I want or feel worthwhile to tie up for 16 months?

    So I am not going to bet save for what we used to call a "sportsman's bet" and, as such bets are similar to "proper" bets, come GE2015 results, you and I will have a super-interesting exchange once the results are in.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Labour might lose quite a few votes nationally as a lot of their supporters (especially in the urban areas) are disillusioned with the impact of cheap labour and multiculturalism (two most significant concerns at the moment) and there are quite a few people who would never vote Conservative but who would consider voting for a different centre-right party.

    We still haven't really had a good sample of UKIP V Labour - it is quite conceivable that in certain constituencies the anti Labour vote will coalesce in the purple from the blue.

    At the moment UKIP are the NOTA party - they need a few opinion poles with a '2' as the first digit as well as a good showing in BOTH May elections. If they do that then (pardon the pun on this site) all bets are off.

    (I would like to see them do well - but not too well as IMHO they lack political experience)
  • Mr. Quincel, we have a strange political situation. I don't think it's impossible UKIP's vote will utterly collapse come the General Election, but I would be somewhat surprised.

    The Lib Dems are facing the difficulties of governance, exacerbated by coming into office for the first time when Labour's epic economic incompetence necessitates numerous hard decisions (not all of which have been correct, cf Eggborough). The Conservatives are similarly faced with a difficult position and the compromises of coalition.

    Labour should be in a position to reap the rewards of being the sole opposition party (nationwide), but are contaminated by recent memories of giving us the worst recession in history, being led by a man best known for destroying his brother's political career and somehow finding a man less popular than George Osborne to oppose him.

    This comes after the MPs expenses scandal the general effect of which (undermining an already pretty low trust in the political class) is ongoing.

    All the above makes a good opportunity for UKIP. As I said earlier today, if they shun the green ideology that seems to have gripped the main three parties and pledge to frack away, cut the taxes on coal, create employment, energy security and thereby lower fuel bills there's a wide open goal for UKIP.

    It needs to move beyond Farage and the Farangian Guard, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    GeoffM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is what is being felt.

    It's more like that odd sense of loss one feels when the floating turd which just won't flush finally succumbs to the power of the cistern.

    No matter how far out of sight it has disappeared off into the grim and eternal darkness sewer, you know that it will always be, in some strange way, a part of you.

    Hey GeoffM,

    Big profits hopefully on the horizon. We live in hope ;)
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227

    Obviously, if I was Tim, I would be laughing my cock off at these whoppers who have for so long derided me, but cannot go through a thread without mentioning me.

    But Tim, every village needs its idiot.

  • Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Jonnie.

    And good evening, everyone.
  • For the PB Hodges Crack cocaine Tim heads:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2reGl_yjx4
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited December 2013
    Gaius said:

    Obviously, if I was Tim, I would be laughing my cock off at these whoppers who have for so long derided me, but cannot go through a thread without mentioning me.

    But Tim, every village needs its idiot.

    It's a shame the idiots in here have taken over the asylum.
  • Mr. Compouter, a man posting on a website that people who post on that website are idiots might consider what he's written.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pulpstar said:

    GeoffM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is what is being felt.

    It's more like that odd sense of loss one feels when the floating turd which just won't flush finally succumbs to the power of the cistern.

    No matter how far out of sight it has disappeared off into the grim and eternal darkness sewer, you know that it will always be, in some strange way, a part of you.

    Hey GeoffM,

    Big profits hopefully on the horizon. We live in hope ;)
    I had high hopes when the first Raceclear came in 3rd.
    They were brave going for the treble.
    Did you follow them in on that? I thought it was a punt too far and didn't.

  • F1: plan to do my final article of the year tomorrow. It'll be complicated and perhaps lengthy, so it may be delayed. It'll be a look ahead to 2014, including regulation changes and the driver lineups.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited December 2013
    Gaius said:

    TOPPING said:



    Agreed on ukip being the NOTA party, but that is not all they are.

    They are also the tactical voters party, the dissatisfied tories party, the only alternative for soft labour, and even the party for those who agree with their policies (such as they are) party.

    Doe you honestly think the average voter understands or even cares about balance of payments? If so you are clearly bonkers. We, the political nerds are the oddities, the average guy in the street isn't bothered.

    Whilst there will be some who drift back to the other parties, others will drift the other way.

    To suggest they will go back to 5 just because thats what happened in the past is simplistic in the extreme.
    No, I don't think that the average person (needs to) understand the balance of payments as s/he votes for people who should be able to do this.

    My point is that UKIP presses a bunch of hot buttons at the moment much as the loudmouth down the pub might (crass analogy, no offence Nigel, MikeK).

    But, and I think this is an interesting not to say critical difference in the outlook of our various political parties, when it comes down to it, I trust the people. I trust the electorate to understand (on whatever academic or technical level) that the country must be managed holistically and much as brownie points are scored on one or two points, the balance of payments, the NHS, the green belt, energy planning, HS2, LHR/LGW/Boris Island _all_ need to be considered.

    The difficulty with the Greens, UKIP, RCP, Monster Raving Loonies, etc, is that they efficiently hit one button whereas many many buttons need to be pushed simultaneously and competently to be able to govern our country. That leaves Lab, Con, LD(-ish) and no one else, really.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited December 2013
    GeoffM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GeoffM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is what is being felt.

    It's more like that odd sense of loss one feels when the floating turd which just won't flush finally succumbs to the power of the cistern.

    No matter how far out of sight it has disappeared off into the grim and eternal darkness sewer, you know that it will always be, in some strange way, a part of you.

    Hey GeoffM,

    Big profits hopefully on the horizon. We live in hope ;)
    I had high hopes when the first Raceclear came in 3rd.
    They were brave going for the treble.
    Did you follow them in on that? I thought it was a punt too far and didn't.


    Yes followed them in. Obviously the realistic part was the place side of the bet which would have paid out 4.5 units in total on the 1 unit stake.

    If they'd have recommended a 1 pt win treble I'd have been on the blower to them asking them what they were playing at ;p.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    What I'm saying is the place part of the bet was enough value to make the EWT worthwhile. (And obviously there is the lottery bingo potential upside) but that wouldn't be why they recommended the bet.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TOPPING said:

    Gaius said:

    TOPPING said:



    Agreed on ukip being the NOTA party, but that is not all they are.

    They are also the tactical voters party, the dissatisfied tories party, the only alternative for soft labour, and even the party for those who agree with their policies (such as they are) party.

    Doe you honestly think the average voter understands or even cares about balance of payments? If so you are clearly bonkers. We, the political nerds are the oddities, the average guy in the street isn't bothered.

    Whilst there will be some who drift back to the other parties, others will drift the other way.

    To suggest they will go back to 5 just because thats what happened in the past is simplistic in the extreme.
    No, I don't think that the average person (needs to) understand the balance of payments as s/he votes for people who should be able to do this.

    My point is that UKIP presses a bunch of hot buttons at the moment much as the loudmouth down the pub might (crass analogy, no offence Nigel, MikeK).

    But, and I think this is an interesting not to say critical difference in the outlook of our various political parties, when it comes down to it, I trust the people. I trust the electorate to understand (on whatever academic or technical level) that the country must be managed holistically and much as brownie points are scored on one or two points, the balance of payments, the NHS, the green belt, energy planning, HS2, LHR/LGW/Boris Island _all_ need to be considered.

    The difficulty with the Greens, UKIP, RCP, Monster Raving Loonies, etc, is that they efficiently hit one button whereas many many buttons need to be pushed simultaneously and competently to be able to govern our country. That leaves Lab, Con, LD(-ish) and no one else, really.
    You're assuming that Lab/Con/LD are perceived as competent.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    I can't read the yellow text. Could if be altered?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Also I've told myself that exercising my own judgement on their punts will probably cost me in the long run. That 14-1 nag (That went off 7-2 so not a fluke) that won what seems like an eternity ago was pulled up in almost all of it's previous races !
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    dr_spyn said:

    I can't read the yellow text. Could if be altered?

    highlight it with your mouse.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    GeoffM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is what is being felt.

    It's more like that odd sense of loss one feels when the floating turd which just won't flush finally succumbs to the power of the cistern.

    No matter how far out of sight it has disappeared off into the grim and eternal darkness sewer, you know that it will always be, in some strange way, a part of you.

    If Tim is posting in another name (and I doubt that's quite his style), then he will be easy to detect: just wait for the first poster to reach 10,000 posts again.

    The SNR was really low with that one ...

    (And with this post, I decrease my SNR as well).

    (If you understand this post, then you are truly a Geek).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    TOPPING said:

    Gaius said:

    TOPPING said:



    Agreed on ukip being the NOTA party, but that is not all they are.

    They are also the tactical voters party, the dissatisfied tories party, the only alternative for soft labour, and even the party for those who agree with their policies (such as they are) party.

    Doe you honestly think the average voter understands or even cares about balance of payments? If so you are clearly bonkers. We, the political nerds are the oddities, the average guy in the street isn't bothered.

    Whilst there will be some who drift back to the other parties, others will drift the other way.

    To suggest they will go back to 5 just because thats what happened in the past is simplistic in the extreme.
    No, I don't think that the average person (needs to) understand the balance of payments as s/he votes for people who should be able to do this.

    My point is that UKIP presses a bunch of hot buttons at the moment much as the loudmouth down the pub might (crass analogy, no offence Nigel, MikeK).

    But, and I think this is an interesting not to say critical difference in the outlook of our various political parties, when it comes down to it, I trust the people. I trust the electorate to understand (on whatever academic or technical level) that the country must be managed holistically and much as brownie points are scored on one or two points, the balance of payments, the NHS, the green belt, energy planning, HS2, LHR/LGW/Boris Island _all_ need to be considered.

    The difficulty with the Greens, UKIP, RCP, Monster Raving Loonies, etc, is that they efficiently hit one button whereas many many buttons need to be pushed simultaneously and competently to be able to govern our country. That leaves Lab, Con, LD(-ish) and no one else, really.
    You're assuming that Lab/Con/LD are perceived as competent.
    Not really. But they are the only game in town. As WC said, democracy is the worst possible form of government, apart from....

    But of course if you think they are all incompetent, then there is (as yet) no law to prevent you forming the only competent political party.

    I promise to read your manifesto.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    TOPPING said:

    Gaius said:

    TOPPING said:



    Agreed on ukip being the NOTA party, but that is not all they are.

    They are also the tactical voters party, the dissatisfied tories party, the only alternative for soft labour, and even the party for those who agree with their policies (such as they are) party.

    Doe you honestly think the average voter understands or even cares about balance of payments? If so you are clearly bonkers. We, the political nerds are the oddities, the average guy in the street isn't bothered.

    Whilst there will be some who drift back to the other parties, others will drift the other way.

    To suggest they will go back to 5 just because thats what happened in the past is simplistic in the extreme.
    ...I think this is an interesting not to say critical difference in the outlook of our various political parties, when it comes down to it, I trust the people. I trust the electorate to understand (on whatever academic or technical level) that the country must be managed holistically and much as brownie points are scored on one or two points, the balance of payments, the NHS, the green belt, energy planning, HS2, LHR/LGW/Boris Island _all_ need to be considered.

    Absolutely topping, Topping.

    Boring and balanced competence is what the country needs to see us come out of the financial crisis stronger than we went in.

    And you are right to trust the electorate. Like juries, they rarely made mistakes and have the advantage of not being professionals or experts.

    The questions which will be answered in 2015 are:

    1. Is the country in a better position than it was in 2010?

    2. Is the Coalition Government mainly responsible for the change?

    3. Is the job finished?

    The answers will be 1. Yes ; 2. Yes; and 3. No.

    The real competitive election will come in 2020, when there will be a realistic option for the voters to change political direction. 2015 will be all about completing the job in hand.
  • Labour seems to be becoming prone to extraordinary collapses in its vote since EdM's election. We saw it in Scotland in 2011, then in Bradford against Galloway, and now to an extent against UKIP. Its support is unenthused and increasingly fickle.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    The people at Highland Council who have "published" the "result" of the Black Isle by-election have given figures which add up to 4,093 from a turnout of 3,084. It doesn't seem to have occurred to them that normal people will actually want to know the result, i.e. the number of votes for each candidate in each round. I wonder how many angry emails the Returning Officer will wake up to on Monday morning.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    JohnLoony said:

    The people at Highland Council who have "published" the "result" of the Black Isle by-election have given figures which add up to 4,093 from a turnout of 3,084. It doesn't seem to have occurred to them that normal people will actually want to know the result, i.e. the number of votes for each candidate in each round. I wonder how many angry emails the Returning Officer will wake up to on Monday morning.

    Have you sent one :D ?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    Now that Simon Hughes has become a Minister of State in the Ministry of Justice I believe he has to resign as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats. So there is a market on his replacement. I think there will be pressure to have a women ( who is not a minister). My money is on Tessa Munt.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Is UKIP's 49.7% the highest ever vote % in a by election ward that has not won it ?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited December 2013
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    UKIP have peaked and are now on the wane.

    Careful - one of our less human posters might latch on to that and repeat it over and over again in the run up to the 2014 elections!
    Careful - Your reputation as the most laughable 'green' Osbrowne supporter on PB might be in danger if you don't gush even more more dimwitted praise on the clueless AveryLP/Seth O Logue/StuartTruth!


    :)

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is what is being felt.

    It's more like that odd sense of loss one feels when the floating turd which just won't flush finally succumbs to the power of the cistern.

    No matter how far out of sight it has disappeared off into the grim and eternal darkness sewer, you know that it will always be, in some strange way, a part of you.

    If Tim is posting in another name (and I doubt that's quite his style), then he will be easy to detect: just wait for the first poster to reach 10,000 posts again.

    The SNR was really low with that one ...

    (And with this post, I decrease my SNR as well).

    (If you understand this post, then you are truly a Geek).
    Not sure that Signal to Noise Ratio is geeky :)

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited December 2013
    Ibrahim Taguri (party national treasurer) has been selected by LibDems in Brent Central.

    4 out of 7 LD seats with MP retiring have now selected. Somerton & Frome, Fife NE and Gordon are the 3 still to select.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    AveryLP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gaius said:

    TOPPING said:



    Agreed on ukip being the NOTA party, but that is not all they are.

    They are also the tactical voters party, the dissatisfied tories party, the only alternative for soft labour, and even the party for those who agree with their policies (such as they are) party.

    Doe you honestly think the average voter understands or even cares about balance of payments? If so you are clearly bonkers. We, the political nerds are the oddities, the average guy in the street isn't bothered.

    Whilst there will be some who drift back to the other parties, others will drift the other way.

    To suggest they will go back to 5 just because thats what happened in the past is simplistic in the extreme.
    ...I think this is an interesting not to say critical difference in the outlook of our various political parties, when it comes down to it, I trust the people. I trust the electorate to understand (on whatever academic or technical level) that the country must be managed holistically and much as brownie points are scored on one or two points, the balance of payments, the NHS, the green belt, energy planning, HS2, LHR/LGW/Boris Island _all_ need to be considered.

    Absolutely topping, Topping.

    Boring and balanced competence is what the country needs to see us come out of the financial crisis stronger than we went in.

    And you are right to trust the electorate. Like juries, they rarely made mistakes and have the advantage of not being professionals or experts.

    The questions which will be answered in 2015 are:

    1. Is the country in a better position than it was in 2010?

    2. Is the Coalition Government mainly responsible for the change?

    3. Is the job finished?

    The answers will be 1. Yes ; 2. Yes; and 3. No.

    The real competitive election will come in 2020, when there will be a realistic option for the voters to change political direction. 2015 will be all about completing the job in hand.
    Hi George.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    AveryLP said:


    And you are right to trust the electorate. Like juries, they rarely made mistakes and have the advantage of not being professionals or experts.
    /blockquote>

    2005 hmmmmmmm....

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pulpstar said:

    Also I've told myself that exercising my own judgement on their punts will probably cost me in the long run. That 14-1 nag (That went off 7-2 so not a fluke) that won what seems like an eternity ago was pulled up in almost all of it's previous races !

    Agree entirely that going off piste with them is costly - and I have mentioned to you previously my error in trying exactly that.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    @Pulpstar

    And you are right to trust the electorate. Like juries, they rarely made mistakes and have the advantage of not being professionals or experts.

    2005 hmmmmmmm....


    Easy to question in hindsight.

    The 1997-2001 Labour government was very competent and fully deserved re-election.

    The 2001-2005 Labour government sowed the seeds of destruction but the damage was invisible to most and followed a global consensus. It was not until the following term that the electorate could have realised the danger.

    So Blair over Howard was not really a mistake based on the information generally available at the time. I am not sure we should be blaming the voters on this one.

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Pulpstar said:

    JohnLoony said:

    The people at Highland Council who have "published" the "result" of the Black Isle by-election have given figures which add up to 4,093 from a turnout of 3,084. It doesn't seem to have occurred to them that normal people will actually want to know the result, i.e. the number of votes for each candidate in each round. I wonder how many angry emails the Returning Officer will wake up to on Monday morning.

    Have you sent one :D ?
    I sent a reasonably polite one, pretending to be thick, asking where the "result" is. I included a link to the page where they have published what they are pretending is the "result". Whether I get angry depends on what response I get.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Bit of an economic graphfest on Newsnight.

    Quiet around these parts. Everyone wrapping awkwardly-shaped presents?

    Has seant killed tim?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pulpstar said:

    Is UKIP's 49.7% the highest ever vote % in a by election ward that has not won it ?

    Maybe, but there were only two dancers on that platform.

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (OT) What does the headline "His milkshake brought his boy to the yard!" mean?
    Is it some sort of cultural reference or quotation that I don't get?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2522656/Tom-Daleys-boyfriend-Dustin-Lance-Black-shows-support-Olympic-diver.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2013
    JohnLoony said:

    (OT) What does the headline "His milkshake brought his boy to the yard!" mean?
    Is it some sort of cultural reference or quotation that I don't get?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2522656/Tom-Daleys-boyfriend-Dustin-Lance-Black-shows-support-Olympic-diver.html

    A song by Kelis I think

    Harry Hill does a version too!

    http://youtu.be/of-ySTkxeDE
  • JohnLoony said:

    (OT) What does the headline "His milkshake brought his boy to the yard!" mean?
    Is it some sort of cultural reference or quotation that I don't get?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2522656/Tom-Daleys-boyfriend-Dustin-Lance-Black-shows-support-Olympic-diver.html

    A song by Kelis called Milkshake, it begins with the lyrics

    My milk shake brings all the boys to the yard,
    And there like,
    Its better than yours,
    Damn right its better than yours,
    I can teach you,
    But I have to charge.

    Here's the video

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AwXKJoKJz4
  • AveryLP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gaius said:

    TOPPING said:



    Agreed on ukip being the NOTA party, but that is not all they are.

    They are also the tactical voters party, the dissatisfied tories party, the only alternative for soft labour, and even the party for those who agree with their policies (such as they are) party.

    Doe you honestly think the average voter understands or even cares about balance of payments? If so you are clearly bonkers. We, the political nerds are the oddities, the average guy in the street isn't bothered.

    Whilst there will be some who drift back to the other parties, others will drift the other way.

    To suggest they will go back to 5 just because thats what happened in the past is simplistic in the extreme.
    ...I think this is an interesting not to say critical difference in the outlook of our various political parties, when it comes down to it, I trust the people. I trust the electorate to understand (on whatever academic or technical level) that the country must be managed holistically and much as brownie points are scored on one or two points, the balance of payments, the NHS, the green belt, energy planning, HS2, LHR/LGW/Boris Island _all_ need to be considered.

    Absolutely topping, Topping.

    Boring and balanced competence is what the country needs to see us come out of the financial crisis stronger than we went in.

    And you are right to trust the electorate. Like juries, they rarely made mistakes and have the advantage of not being professionals or experts.

    The questions which will be answered in 2015 are:

    1. Is the country in a better position than it was in 2010?

    2. Is the Coalition Government mainly responsible for the change?

    3. Is the job finished?

    The answers will be 1. Yes ; 2. Yes; and 3. No.

    The real competitive election will come in 2020, when there will be a realistic option for the voters to change political direction. 2015 will be all about completing the job in hand.
    The Conservative party will drown in that ocean of complacency.

    The problem is that its drowning Britain at the same time.

    Perhaps you'd like to make a prediction when we get the first month of trade surplus since 1998 ?

    And not surprising that you wish to exonerate the electorate for reelecting Labout in 2005.

    Of course Cameron and Osborne were unable to see anything wrong with the weay the country was heading even in 2008.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013
    Carola said:



    Has seant killed tim?

    I doubt tim will be blaming Sean, even though Sean deserves some of the blame for triggering the incident which led to tim's departure.

    tim's view will be that it is the responsibility of the site administration and moderation team to protect the chosen anonymity of PB participants when it comes under threat from other posters. And he will want his current absence to be interpreted as a stand on that principle.

    tim has a very thick skin and he can give out as much as he receives, but he loses his balance of judgement when confronted with a single instance of perceived injustice. This is not just personal: he judges many politicians entirely on the basis of single error. The Hurd working for Nat West in Serbia being one of many examples (although I accept this may be part ironic).

    I do hope that Sean can suppress his vanity for the few seconds it would need to apologise to tim, and, that OGH and the PB Moderators can indicate their empathy with tim's viewpoint.

    tim has been an essential part of PB for so long and provides a tension which prevents the site from falling into the self congratulatory comfort of shared views or styles. Like him or loathe him, his absence from the site detracts from its weight, influence and fun.

    In a spirit of Christmas reconciliation, I hope he returns soon and hope that none of those mentioned above take offence from this post.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I think Charles Saatchi might be cancelling his Telegraph subscription.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10532147/Saatchis-campaign-to-smear-his-ex-wife.html
  • Of course Cameron and Osborne were unable to see anything wrong with the weay the country was heading even in 2008.

    Really?

    Let's see, for example this speech was before the banking crisis exploded:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/07/osborne-on-the.html
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited December 2013
    Speaking of crack cocaine. I have just found out Team Coke Head was defeated in court today. Getting a message of support from Comedy Dave really is the death knell for everything. Sports and now court hearings. In all seriousness, has he ever sent a public backing to anyone that ends up winning?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/wimbledon/10153890/Its-that-man-again...-Cameron-curse-strikes-on-tearful-Robson.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    edited December 2013

    JohnLoony said:

    (OT) What does the headline "His milkshake brought his boy to the yard!" mean?
    Is it some sort of cultural reference or quotation that I don't get?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2522656/Tom-Daleys-boyfriend-Dustin-Lance-Black-shows-support-Olympic-diver.html

    A song by Kelis called Milkshake, it begins with the lyrics

    My milk shake brings all the boys to the yard,
    And there like,
    Its better than yours,
    Damn right its better than yours,
    I can teach you,
    But I have to charge.

    Here's the video

    Ben Stiller does another version at the end of Dodgeball:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xr87KIlaA_I
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Ibrahim Taguri (party national treasurer) has been selected by LibDems in Brent Central.

    4 out of 7 LD seats with MP retiring have now selected. Somerton & Frome, Fife NE and Gordon are the 3 still to select.

    I didn't realise that principled and extremely funny comedian Sarah Teather is retiring.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:



    Has seant killed tim?

    I doubt tim will be blaming Sean, even though Sean deserves some of the blame for triggering the incident which led to tim's departure.

    tim's view will be that it is the responsibility of the site administration and moderation team to protect the chosen anonymity of PB participants when it comes under threat from other posters. And he will want his current absence to be interpreted as a stand on that principle.

    tim has a very thick skin and he can give out as much as he receives, but he loses his balance of judgement when confronted with a single instance of perceived injustice. This is not just personal: he judges many politicians entirely on the basis of single error. The Hurd working for Nat West in Serbia being one of many examples (although I accept this may be part ironic).

    I do hope that Sean can suppress his vanity for the few seconds it would need to apologise to tim, and, that OGH and the PB Moderators can indicate their empathy with tim's viewpoint.

    tim has been an essential part of PB for so long and provides a tension which prevents the site from falling into the self congratulatory comfort of shared views or styles. Like him or loathe him, his absence from the site detracts from its weight, influence and fun.

    In a spirit of Christmas reconciliation, I hope he returns soon and hope that none of those mentioned above take offence from this post.

    Very reasonable Avery.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:



    Has seant killed tim?

    I doubt tim will be blaming Sean, even though Sean deserves some of the blame for triggering the incident which led to tim's departure.

    tim's view will be that it is the responsibility of the site administration and moderation team to protect the chosen anonymity of PB participants when it comes under threat from other posters. And he will want his current absence to be interpreted as a stand on that principle.

    tim has a very thick skin and he can give out as much as he receives, but he loses his balance of judgement when confronted with a single instance of perceived injustice. This is not just personal: he judges many politicians entirely on the basis of single error. The Hurd working for Nat West in Serbia being one of many examples (although I accept this may be part ironic).

    I do hope that Sean can suppress his vanity for the few seconds it would need to apologise to tim, and, that OGH and the PB Moderators can indicate their empathy with tim's viewpoint.

    tim has been an essential part of PB for so long and provides a tension which prevents the site from falling into the self congratulatory comfort of shared views or styles. Like him or loathe him, his absence from the site detracts from its weight, influence and fun.

    In a spirit of Christmas reconciliation, I hope he returns soon and hope that none of those mentioned above take offence from this post.

    Agreed about finding a way to bringing him back. I'd say the same if it was SeanT, who is of course always* wrong, but nonetheless an entertaining asset to the site who keeps us on our toes. I don't think the new posters are tim - the style is markedly different (his posts are generally 1-2 lines long).

    * within MOE
  • Of course Cameron and Osborne were unable to see anything wrong with the weay the country was heading even in 2008.

    Really?

    Let's see, for example this speech was before the banking crisis exploded:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/07/osborne-on-the.html
    Had a quick glance through but didn't spot any mention of these:

    Household borrowing rising at £100bn+ per year
    Trade deficit having become permantised
    Industrial production already falling
    Unaffordable housing
    Incipient power generation crisis

    Epic fail RN.

    Both from Osborne not understanding the subject and your good self in highlighting it.

    Notice how much of Osborne's speech was spent babbling about non economic subjects ?

    Why ? Because Osborne had bought into the Brownian economy's 'success'.

    Tell me. Do you think George Osborne ever spent a few hours going through the ONS stats and THINKING.

    You know the answer to that is no.

    But that was his job to do so.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:



    Has seant killed tim?

    I doubt tim will be blaming Sean, even though Sean deserves some of the blame for triggering the incident which led to tim's departure.

    tim's view will be that it is the responsibility of the site administration and moderation team to protect the chosen anonymity of PB participants when it comes under threat from other posters. And he will want his current absence to be interpreted as a stand on that principle.

    tim has a very thick skin and he can give out as much as he receives, but he loses his balance of judgement when confronted with a single instance of perceived injustice. This is not just personal: he judges many politicians entirely on the basis of single error. The Hurd working for Nat West in Serbia being one of many examples (although I accept this may be part ironic).

    I do hope that Sean can suppress his vanity for the few seconds it would need to apologise to tim, and, that OGH and the PB Moderators can indicate their empathy with tim's viewpoint.

    tim has been an essential part of PB for so long and provides a tension which prevents the site from falling into the self congratulatory comfort of shared views or styles. Like him or loathe him, his absence from the site detracts from its weight, influence and fun.

    In a spirit of Christmas reconciliation, I hope he returns soon and hope that none of those mentioned above take offence from this post.

    Agreed about finding a way to bringing him back. I'd say the same if it was SeanT, who is of course always* wrong, but nonetheless an entertaining asset to the site who keeps us on our toes. I don't think the new posters are tim - the style is markedly different (his posts are generally 1-2 lines long).

    * within MOE
    Hi Nick

    Do you think labour brought in the minimum wage partly to prevent unskilled pay falling to Eastern European levels once the accession was allowed in 2004?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Richard Nabavi - Cameron and Osborne were running an advertising campaign whilst in opposition as the then Governor of the Bank of England made plain. However there's little point debating it with you, you've made your mind up that their wonderful and that's it.
  • Of course Cameron and Osborne were unable to see anything wrong with the weay the country was heading even in 2008.

    Really?

    Let's see, for example this speech was before the banking crisis exploded:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/07/osborne-on-the.html
    And more epic fail from yourself RN.

    That article is dated July 15 2008.

    So NOT 'before the banking crisis exploded' but 10 months AFTER the run on Northern Rock and when Britain was ALREADY in recession.

    In those circumstances its an utterly feeble denounciation of the Labour government and their economic vandalism..

    And where did Osborne head for shortly after making that feeble, complacent speech ?

    An oligarch's yacht.

    Real clever visuals that for a recession.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Of course Cameron and Osborne were unable to see anything wrong with the weay the country was heading even in 2008.

    Really?

    Let's see, for example this speech was before the banking crisis exploded:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/07/osborne-on-the.html
    And more epic fail from yourself RN.

    That article is dated July 15 2008.

    So NOT 'before the banking crisis exploded' but 10 months AFTER the run on Northern Rock and when Britain was ALREADY in recession.

    In those circumstances its an utterly feeble denounciation of the Labour government and their economic vandalism..

    And where did Osborne head for shortly after making that feeble, complacent speech ?

    An oligarch's yacht.

    Real clever visuals that for a recession.
    It's not the first time that RN has been caught trying to re-write history. Remember Osborne also promised to keep to Labour's budget plans.
  • isam said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:



    Has seant killed tim?

    I doubt tim will be blaming Sean, even though Sean deserves some of the blame for triggering the incident which led to tim's departure.

    tim's view will be that it is the responsibility of the site administration and moderation team to protect the chosen anonymity of PB participants when it comes under threat from other posters. And he will want his current absence to be interpreted as a stand on that principle.

    tim has a very thick skin and he can give out as much as he receives, but he loses his balance of judgement when confronted with a single instance of perceived injustice. This is not just personal: he judges many politicians entirely on the basis of single error. The Hurd working for Nat West in Serbia being one of many examples (although I accept this may be part ironic).

    I do hope that Sean can suppress his vanity for the few seconds it would need to apologise to tim, and, that OGH and the PB Moderators can indicate their empathy with tim's viewpoint.

    tim has been an essential part of PB for so long and provides a tension which prevents the site from falling into the self congratulatory comfort of shared views or styles. Like him or loathe him, his absence from the site detracts from its weight, influence and fun.

    In a spirit of Christmas reconciliation, I hope he returns soon and hope that none of those mentioned above take offence from this post.

    Agreed about finding a way to bringing him back. I'd say the same if it was SeanT, who is of course always* wrong, but nonetheless an entertaining asset to the site who keeps us on our toes. I don't think the new posters are tim - the style is markedly different (his posts are generally 1-2 lines long).

    * within MOE
    Hi Nick

    Do you think labour brought in the minimum wage partly to prevent unskilled pay falling to Eastern European levels once the accession was allowed in 2004?
    Sounds unlikely, it was a longstanding Labour policy.
  • Of course Cameron and Osborne were unable to see anything wrong with the weay the country was heading even in 2008.

    Really?

    Let's see, for example this speech was before the banking crisis exploded:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/07/osborne-on-the.html
    And more epic fail from yourself RN.

    That article is dated July 15 2008.

    So NOT 'before the banking crisis exploded' but 10 months AFTER the run on Northern Rock and when Britain was ALREADY in recession.

    In those circumstances its an utterly feeble denounciation of the Labour government and their economic vandalism..

    And where did Osborne head for shortly after making that feeble, complacent speech ?

    An oligarch's yacht.

    Real clever visuals that for a recession.
    Why let a little thing like facts get in the way.?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:



    Has seant killed tim?

    I doubt tim will be blaming Sean, even though Sean deserves some of the blame for triggering the incident which led to tim's departure.

    tim's view will be that it is the responsibility of the site administration and moderation team to protect the chosen anonymity of PB participants when it comes under threat from other posters. And he will want his current absence to be interpreted as a stand on that principle.

    tim has a very thick skin and he can give out as much as he receives, but he loses his balance of judgement when confronted with a single instance of perceived injustice. This is not just personal: he judges many politicians entirely on the basis of single error. The Hurd working for Nat West in Serbia being one of many examples (although I accept this may be part ironic).

    I do hope that Sean can suppress his vanity for the few seconds it would need to apologise to tim, and, that OGH and the PB Moderators can indicate their empathy with tim's viewpoint.

    tim has been an essential part of PB for so long and provides a tension which prevents the site from falling into the self congratulatory comfort of shared views or styles. Like him or loathe him, his absence from the site detracts from its weight, influence and fun.

    In a spirit of Christmas reconciliation, I hope he returns soon and hope that none of those mentioned above take offence from this post.

    Agreed about finding a way to bringing him back. I'd say the same if it was SeanT, who is of course always* wrong, but nonetheless an entertaining asset to the site who keeps us on our toes. I don't think the new posters are tim - the style is markedly different (his posts are generally 1-2 lines long).

    * within MOE
    Hi Nick

    Do you think labour brought in the minimum wage partly to prevent unskilled pay falling to Eastern European levels once the accession was allowed in 2004?
    Sounds unlikely, it was a longstanding Labour policy.
    It was extraordinarily lucky that they did introduce it, else the going rate would now be closer to the wages in Eastern Europe

    It is a possible influence though... Poland started negotiating entry in 1989
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited December 2013

    AveryLP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gaius said:

    TOPPING said:



    ...

    ...

    ...

    The Conservative party will drown in that ocean of complacency.

    The problem is that its drowning Britain at the same time.

    Perhaps you'd like to make a prediction when we get the first month of trade surplus since 1998 ?

    And not surprising that you wish to exonerate the electorate for reelecting Labout in 2005.

    Of course Cameron and Osborne were unable to see anything wrong with the weay the country was heading even in 2008.
    Cold easterly winds off the North Sea, ar?

    I was not expressing a personal view. You will not be surprised that I voted Conservative in all of 1997, 2001 and 2005. I was trying to represent a consensus view or at least one with sufficient weight under our electoral system to decide on a government.

    My Tory voting derives from fundamental political values and the belief that goals for social justice can only be achieved through economic success. These are rooted in the same principles covered by George Osborne in the 2008 speech linked by RN.

    It is not enough for a few individuals reading ONS statistics correctly to change an electorate's view on future developments and current malaise. The prophets of doom must have an audience willing to receive their message. And this especially applies to politicians who have to sell their message in a market for votes. Being believed is far more important than being right.

    Even if Osborne had read the tea leaves correctly in 2008 - I have no axe to grind on this - he would still be limited by his ability to convince others and by the resistance of the consensus. Once the problems became clear to the public through the financial crash and its consequences then the issue became far more what approach to take to solving the aftermath than it did in choosing individuals to lead who had made a correct early diagnosis.

    And yes problems remain - you list many of them - but we should not only be screaming that they remain unsolved but making a judgement on the best approach needed to solve them and deciding which of the parties and leaders are best placedd to follow the right approach.

    You are far too absolutist in your demands!


    ,
  • JohnLoony said:

    (OT) What does the headline "His milkshake brought his boy to the yard!" mean?
    Is it some sort of cultural reference or quotation that I don't get?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2522656/Tom-Daleys-boyfriend-Dustin-Lance-Black-shows-support-Olympic-diver.html

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=my milkshake brings all the boys to the yard
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    JohnLoony said:

    (OT) What does the headline "His milkshake brought his boy to the yard!" mean?
    Is it some sort of cultural reference or quotation that I don't get?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2522656/Tom-Daleys-boyfriend-Dustin-Lance-Black-shows-support-Olympic-diver.html

    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=my milkshake brings all the boys to the yard
    Definition 2 is amusing.
  • Of course Cameron and Osborne were unable to see anything wrong with the weay the country was heading even in 2008.

    Really?

    Let's see, for example this speech was before the banking crisis exploded:

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/07/osborne-on-the.html
    And we can contast Osborne's speech with this conversation from over 10 weeks earlier:

    " JOE JAMES BROUGHTON
    Richard, do you think we’re going into recession?
    May 3rd, 2008 at 6:54 pm
    RICHARD
    Joe
    Yes – the economic fundamentals of this country are very weak. We have an ‘Emperor’s New Clothes’ economy based on too much debt fuelled wealth consumption (both private and public sector) but with too little wealth creation.
    The sense of affluence caused by the house price pyramid scheme is going into reverse and this will lead to job losses in construction, financial services and retail.
    Manufacturing employment is already at its lowest level on record and is being very hard hit by rising commodity prices not to mention extra taxes, insurance costs and red tape.
    Issues like national energy security and savings/pensions are also very worrying. Expect the next few years to see rising prices, job losses, public sector strikes and repeated crises. Very 1970s! "

    Now I'm not claiming to be a great economic sage - the evidence was there for all to see it.

    All that was needed was an open mind, a bit of common sense and a willingness to look at the economic stats.

    Which of those did Osborne lack ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    isam said:



    Hi Nick

    Do you think labour brought in the minimum wage partly to prevent unskilled pay falling to Eastern European levels once the accession was allowed in 2004?

    No, as EiT says, it was a trademark Labour policy from way back, though seen as quite risky at the time and strongly opposed by the Tories (I see this week's Economist concedes they were wrong to reject it, though they are still wary of it getting too high). Also, you may not believe it, but Ministers were genuinely surprised by the size of Polish immigration (so was pretty well everyone else) - although e.g. Portugal and Greece had had large wage gaps compared with Britain too, they never came to Britain in large numbers, so there wasn't any expectation that any particular policies would be needed when Poland joined.

    Possibly we're now all making the reverse mistake, expecting vast Bulgarian and Romanian immigration when it will turn out to be more like Greek levels. Regardless of whether we think large-scale immigration good or bad, nobody really knows for sure what will catch on among lots of individuals.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:



    Hi Nick

    Do you think labour brought in the minimum wage partly to prevent unskilled pay falling to Eastern European levels once the accession was allowed in 2004?

    No, as EiT says, it was a trademark Labour policy from way back, though seen as quite risky at the time and strongly opposed by the Tories (I see this week's Economist concedes they were wrong to reject it, though they are still wary of it getting too high). Also, you may not believe it, but Ministers were genuinely surprised by the size of Polish immigration (so was pretty well everyone else) - although e.g. Portugal and Greece had had large wage gaps compared with Britain too, they never came to Britain in large numbers, so there wasn't any expectation that any particular policies would be needed when Poland joined.

    Possibly we're now all making the reverse mistake, expecting vast Bulgarian and Romanian immigration when it will turn out to be more like Greek levels. Regardless of whether we think large-scale immigration good or bad, nobody really knows for sure what will catch on among lots of individuals.

    Thanks

    If you hadn't introduced it, is it fair to say the 2004 accession would have been catastrophic for millions of the working class?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited December 2013
    @Gaius Vote UKIP and get a Labour Government is a simple and very effective message that could work for the Conservatives on two levels. It could certainly tip some disillusioned Conservative voters who have been flirting with UKIP back into the Conservative camp at a GE. And simple because they may not be happy with the Conservatives, but they really don't want another Labour Government any time soon, and certainly not one led by Ed Miliband/Ed Balls. And it could also tip some anti Tory/NOTA voters into voting for UKIP rather than for Labour or Libdems in target seats as a tactical vote, and with the result it ends up splitting the opposition instead of unseating the target. I wonder if we saw something similar happening in a couple of last nights local by elections.

    I just don't think that either the current Labour party or the Libdems themselves have enough credit tucked away with each others support base, or with the NOTA to manage the kind of organised tactical voting that was so effective and damaging to the Conservatives in the late 90's/early 2000's it was openly being debated on in radio phone ins. And the more publicity UKIP get, especially tagged with the narrative that they are only going to hurt the Conservatives, the more that message will resonate. You might have formerly voted Libdem to keep a Tory out, now you are angry that your Libdem MP is sitting in a Government with the Tories. Why would you take the risk of staying loyal and voting Libdem in a Libdem/Tory marginal on the off chance that if Labour doesn't win the next GE it will be a Lab/Libdem Coaliton? This kind of tactically voting is far more risky if the outcome of a GE is far more fluid and unpredictable. And by trying to vote tactically to prevent a Conservative Government you somehow managed to end up helping to deliver a Conservative Government or another Conservative/Libdem Coalition Government instead by keeping a Libdem MP in place?

    There has been lots of focus here on PB about if and where UKIP might win a Westminster seat at the next GE, but very little focus or attention to back up the claim that the Libdems specific targeting of seats will make sure that the old anti Tory tactical voting of the past will hold firm with them and of course the Labour party as the only beneficiaries. There are lots of predictions about the Libdems losing seats, or even gaining one or two off the Tories, but very little real scrutiny or detail of where or how. Westminster by-elections are vastly different from GE campaigns, and this significant difference is not being highlighted nearly enough.





  • isam said:


    It was extraordinarily lucky that they did introduce it, else the going rate would now be closer to the wages in Eastern Europe

    Probably not - even in free economies without migration restrictions or labour market price-fixing you can get quite a lot of variation between wage rates in different areas. Part of this reflects the higher cost of living in higher-wage places, but part of it is just that most people don't want to move that much. If somebody offered you a job in Russia paying 10% more, you wouldn't necessarily drop everything and move over there. There are people who would, but it's a minority personality type, and there aren't enough of them to erase the variations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    fitalass said:

    @Gaius Vote UKIP and get a Labour Government is a simple and very effective message that could work for the Conservatives on two levels. It could certainly tip some disillusioned Conservative voters who have been flirting with UKIP back into the Conservative camp at a GE. And simple because they may not be happy with the Conservatives, but they really don't want another Labour Government any time soon, and certainly not one led by Ed Miliband/Ed Balls. And it could also tip some anti Tory/NOTA voters into voting for UKIP rather than for Labour or Libdems in target seats as a tactical vote, and with the result it ends up splitting the opposition instead of unseating the target. I wonder if we saw something similar happening in a couple of last nights local by elections.

    I just don't think that either the current Labour party or the Libdems themselves have enough credit tucked away with each others support base, or with the NOTA to manage the kind of organised tactical voting that was so effective and damaging to the Conservatives in the late 90's/early 2000's it was openly being debated on in radio phone ins. And the more publicity UKIP get, especially tagged with the narrative that they are only going to hurt the Conservatives, the more that message will resonate. You might have formerly voted Libdem to keep a Tory out, now you are angry that your Libdem MP is sitting in a Government with the Tories. Why would you take the risk of staying loyal and voting Libdem in a Libdem/Tory marginal on the off chance that if Labour doesn't win the next GE it will be a Lab/Libdem Coaliton? This kind of tactically voting is far more risky if the outcome of a GE is far more fluid and unpredictable. And by trying to vote tactically to prevent a Conservative Government you somehow managed to end up helping to deliver a Conservative Government or another Conservative/Libdem Coalition Government instead by keeping a Libdem MP in place?

    There has been lots of focus here on PB about if and where UKIP might win a Westminster seat at the next GE, but very little focus or attention to back up the claim that the Libdems specific targeting of seats will make sure that the old anti Tory tactical voting of the past will hold firm with them and of course the Labour party as the only beneficiaries. There are lots of predictions about the Libdems losing seats, or even gaining one or two off the Tories, but very little real scrutiny or detail of where or how. Westminster by-elections are vastly different from GE campaigns, and this significant difference is not being highlighted nearly enough.





    In certain seats a vote for the Conservatives could help Labour though !

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    isam said:


    It was extraordinarily lucky that they did introduce it, else the going rate would now be closer to the wages in Eastern Europe

    Probably not - even in free economies without migration restrictions or labour market price-fixing you can get quite a lot of variation between wage rates in different areas. Part of this reflects the higher cost of living in higher-wage places, but part of it is just that most people don't want to move that much. If somebody offered you a job in Russia paying 10% more, you wouldn't necessarily drop everything and move over there. There are people who would, but it's a minority personality type, and there aren't enough of them to erase the variations.
    EiT

    Ten percent is a very small premium to incent taking a job in Russia.

    You would need to be offered at least twice the salary you would expect in your home country and be assured of many additional benefits not normally offered (e.g. decent accommodation, car and driver, security guard (depending on job/position), medical insurance (specific to Russia), family flights and schooling support and enhanced life insurance!). Access to a weekend Dacha outside the smog of Central Moscow would be on my list too.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited December 2013
    @NickPalmer

    'Also, you may not believe it, but Ministers were genuinely surprised by the size of Polish immigration (so was pretty well everyone else)'

    If that's true,why didn't the Labour government push for longer than the usual 7 years before Bulgarian & Romanian nationals could work in the UK.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Welcome weejonnie, I wonder what the UKIP polling/focus groups have been flagging up and telling them over the last 12 months, but its interesting to note how much UKIP has turned their focus and targeting towards Labour voters during this period.
    weejonnie said:

    Labour might lose quite a few votes nationally as a lot of their supporters (especially in the urban areas) are disillusioned with the impact of cheap labour and multiculturalism (two most significant concerns at the moment) and there are quite a few people who would never vote Conservative but who would consider voting for a different centre-right party.

    We still haven't really had a good sample of UKIP V Labour - it is quite conceivable that in certain constituencies the anti Labour vote will coalesce in the purple from the blue.

    At the moment UKIP are the NOTA party - they need a few opinion poles with a '2' as the first digit as well as a good showing in BOTH May elections. If they do that then (pardon the pun on this site) all bets are off.

    (I would like to see them do well - but not too well as IMHO they lack political experience)




  • Re Tim's absence

    The political betting site needs a wide range of viewpoints to stimulate ideas and keep it fresh. Tim's opinions make a valuable contribution to the site. So come back Tim.

    I would prefer people not to write anonymously but to use their real name. However, there can be valid reasons for people to use a nom de plume. Many choose to do so and we should respect that.



This discussion has been closed.