Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
When you lose an election in a democracy, you deserve to. You don’t look at the electorate and ask them: “what were you thinking?” You look at yourself and ask: “what were we doing?”
That's almost a direct quotation from Starmer's conference speech last week - was it meant to be? Anyway, I agree.
It's a copy n paste, too lazy to do the quote marks. I think it is the best political dictum of the century so far.
The problem of course is that the police and the authorities have been rather partial in their interpretation in terms of what demonstrations they break up. BLM marches apparently are okay but anti-lockdown marches are not.
I agree with the 82%. Unfortunately it seems those directing the police do not - or at least not all the time.
Undoubtedly. Its a bit like asking people if they agree taxes should rise, the answer to which is likely to be different if its made more specific.
The problem being that it is the job of the police to enforce the laws without favour or bias. Something they have patently failed to do over the last few months.
You probably won't accept this, but here goes. The peaceful parts (the majority) of the BLM marches that I saw were marked by nearly everybody wearing masks, and a real attempt to socially distance along the march, although I accept that this was challenging in reality.
By contrast, the whole point about the anti-lockdown marches was to explicitly reject, and show disdain for, any attempt to follow the guidance on Covid-secure measures. The aim was to deliberately flout the law, for many marchers.
So I'm not surprised that the police treated them slightly differently.
That may or may not be true but are the police supposed to judge before or during if its the right kind of gathering based on morality or potentiality of adherence to other measures when they are obviously ignoring another measure? That's putting a big judgement call on them even ignoring the non compliant elements.
There's no law against public protests. Indeed they were explicitly named as excluded from the latest regulations - as long as social distancing, mask wearing etc is observed
I think we can safely say now this is a regional outbreak. 45 of the top 50 LAs are North of the Lancs/Yorks southern border. Exceptions Leicester and Oadby. Birmingham, Sandwell and Solihull.
Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.
Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.
I doubt it. Trump has set such a low bar for Biden that all Joe has to do to get at worst a draw is to turn up. Couple that with Trump refusing to prepare, and maybe Biden finding something to trigger Trump (how about "You've failed as President and now we know you failed as businessman"?) a Trump meltdown is not to be ruled out.
Might not be a bad idea to provoke him. Trump goes ballistic over something then Biden looks straight to camera and asks 'Do you want THAT finger on the nuclear button?"
Both of them are on the record as wanting a physical fight vs the other and both probably think they would win. Dont rule it out. The organisers should be contacting Jerry Springer for some bouncers.
The way 2020's going I wouldn't rule out a fist-fight breaking out which turns into a gunfight between the two Secret Service details and the race becomes Harris v Pence!
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Yes, for several legitimate reasons. Nevertheless, I've felt for a while that if we went back in time and re-ran the referendum, but with everyone granted foresight of what would ensue, Remain would win. Brexit has been an extravaganza of disappointment, and the worst is probably yet to come.
Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.
Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.
I doubt it. Trump has set such a low bar for Biden that all Joe has to do to get at worst a draw is to turn up. Couple that with Trump refusing to prepare, and maybe Biden finding something to trigger Trump (how about "You've failed as President and now we know you failed as businessman"?) a Trump meltdown is not to be ruled out.
Might not be a bad idea to provoke him. Trump goes ballistic over something then Biden looks straight to camera and asks 'Do you want THAT finger on the nuclear button?"
Both of them are on the record as wanting a physical fight vs the other and both probably think they would win. Dont rule it out. The organisers should be contacting Jerry Springer for some bouncers.
The way 2020's going I wouldn't rule out a fist-fight breaking out which turns into a gunfight between the two Secret Service details and the race becomes Harris v Pence!
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
13k newly reported cases and 189 newly reported deaths from Spain over the weekend. The daily average for deaths looks to be around 90-100 once all cases are reported, but in better news that figure doesn't seem to be rising any more and neither does the daily cases figure. It's bad but at least it doesn't look to be getting worse.
Astonishing how far ahead at one time Brown was of Cameron? Fall from grace
Also shows the degree to which Sunny Jim outpolled Maggie, which had always been my impression. (Someone on here was recently claiming that she beat him on the 'charisma' score which, while I don't question it, does seem extraordinary from what I remember of how they were viewed at the time.)
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
Mr. D, aye. Maybe calling half the electorate 'deplorables' in a dead heat contest and spending resources in California rather than battleground states were rather more significant factors.
Clinton was the anti-Hannibal. Her defeat was the antithesis of Cannae, the work of her own doing, to her own detriment.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
A good test of this government is if it reverses its balmy 10pm curfew .Whatever you think of covid -19 , this plainly is not going to reduce cases (given the crowds forming at 10pm) so is the government going to admit it was wrong (for the far greater good of reducing covid-19) or is it going to pretend otherwise to save face? I would'n't bet on it and that should make people suspect that the government is there to protect itself as the number one priority not covid-19
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
Hmm, I'm not sure that stands up to scrutiny, I know it's the government and establishment line but I know many, many doctors (being Indian) and other than one or two hotspots the NHS wasn't overwhelmed. I have seen videos of doctors having push up competitions (and other types of boredom induced stuff) because they were massively overstaffed and no one had anything to do for very long periods of time, this was in April and May.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.
That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.
This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?
My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.
I think you are way too optimistic - yes the deaths are lower than at the peak of the first wave even here in Spain. However, they have been rising steadily and the numbers tend to shoot up once the more vulnerable catch it. I think the majority of cases in the second wave have affected the younger more resistant groups but the more they get it the more likely they pass it on to elderly friends/relatives, etc. Also we still low little about the long-term effects of this disease on those who have few or mild symptoms - but some of the signs are not good. I do not favour full lockdown or anything like it but there are measures all can take to reduce risk - they are mostly simple, sensible and far from draconian.
Trouble is Felix the "once the more vulnerable catch it" argument has been trundling on for weeks now and it largely isn`t happening, it seems to me. Sure hospitalisations are up and deaths have risen from single figures per day to double figures, but these metrics don`t tally with the rate of infection increase (or at least the increase in positive tests, i.e. known infections).
The jury is still out for me. Maybe I`m being optimistic, but it does seem to me that the virus has lost some of its virulence compared to Mar/Apr though I accept that I may be totally wrong..
There was an item on CNN late last week with US research conclusion that the virus has mutated since the spring into a more contagious form, but they said there was no evidence it was more damaging. A less damaging form is I guess a possibility.
I also think that people are now taking precautions in rough proportion to their vulnerability. Thus many elderly aren’t going out much and when they do are following the rules above and beyond, whereas younger people are mostly doing the minimum. Thus it follows that new infection cases will trend toward the less serious.
Its almost as if ordinary people are by and large very sensible and can make risk assessments and decisions for themselves...
Nonsense. Here in Spain no-one wore masks until they became mandatory - now you rarely see people without them.
Which makes you wonder why Spain is having such a problem.
Its Franco-like lockdown was much admired by the press then and now. But it seems Spain is really struggling. As Lord Sumption brilliantly noted, the balance of evidence is that the correlation between the severity of government action and disease prevalence appears weak.
Which of course it is.
Spain is having a problem now because it relaxed too quickly in late June and went for a near normal summer break. The problem started with seasonal workers, younger tourists and big family reunions. Then it spread in families. There are many other factors operation in Spanish customs and way of life which add to the problem. Mask wearing is not one of them. As to the severity of the lockdown - without it the health service would have collapsed. The Lord Sumption point is frankly rubbish.
The question then becomes, does severe government action stop an epidemic or merely suppress it temporarily and delay it?
How does locking people up stop an epidemic? It sure hasn't so far.
Bought a ton of alcohol in tesco today because there is gonna be f all else to do
I'm just about to go to the giant Sainsbury's and do the same, Camden Hells is on for £13 for 12 bottles I think which is pretty cheap, might get as many of those as I can carry.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
That is slightly disingenuous since the additional capacity Nightingales were barely used.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
Not disimilar to Mr Johnson, a little older, similar height, and slightly less weight and girth. He almost succumbed.
I also expect the NHS put more effort into saving Mr Johnson than they would me.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
Your hyperbole weakens your argument, such as it is. I'm just over 60, but because of bad stuff (i.e. health issues) in my past I fear that if I get it there's a fair chance it would kill me. I'm not alone.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
Not disimilar to Mr Johnson, a little older, similar height, and slightly less weight and girth. He almost succumbed.
I also expect the NHS put more effort into saving Mr Johnson than they would me.
No idea how close Boris came to succumbing but stats show only about 360 people have died WITH (not necessarily because of ) covid-19 under 60 in the UK. That is frankly not registering hardly on the scale when 1,600 people day every day of the year in the UK. The UK needs to stop its covid-19 obsession
To change the mood a little, I've been posing down the pub (as a wise man once said before social distancing and 10pm closing).
America isn't the only country voting soon - it's election time in New Zealand on October 17th.
To provide some context, at the last election in 2017, the centre-right National Party won 44.5% of the vote and 56 seats, the centre-left Labour Party won 37% and 46 seats. NZ First won 7% of the vote and 9 seats, the Greens won 6.3% and 8 seats with the liberal ACT winning one seat.
To some surprise, NZ First offered their support not to National but to the Labour/Green option giving the new Government 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.
Jacinda Ardern, who had only been Labour leader for seven weeks, became Prime Minister.
Polls in early 2020 pre-Covid showed National leading by up to 5 points (46-41) but then came Covid and a disastrous winter (as it was there) for National.
The outgoing National Prime Minister, Bill English, had remained leader for just a few months after the election and Simon Bridges has taken over but the performance of the Government in responding to Covid won Ardern considerable praise and by May, National were 26 points behind (56-30) and that triggered a "spill" as they call it in Australasia and Bridges was ousted by rural MP Todd Mueller.
Mueller's tenure was brief and catastrophic and within 8 weeks he was gone with veteran frontbencher Judith Collins took over. A resurgence of Covid cases in Auckland, caused, in some instances, by arrivals breaching quarantine, led to the normal September date for the election being postponed a month.
In most of New Zealand, life is normal with some restrictions still in Auckland.
Last night (NZ), the main pollster, Colmar Brunton, issued their latest poll showing Labour on 47 (-1) and National on 33 (+2)
AC are on 8% and Greens on 7% with a slew of other parties including New Zealand First well below the threshold to enter Parliament under the MMP system.
In terms of seats, Labour would win 59 (+13), National 43 (-13), Greens 8 (nc) and ACT 10 (+9).
A Labour/Green Coalition would have 67 seats and a comfortable. Some earlier polls had shown Labour winning up to 65 seats on their own but this poll suggests they won't quite win a majority as it stands.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
Your hyperbole weakens your argument, such as it is. I'm just over 60, but because of bad stuff (i.e. health issues) in my past I fear that if I get it there's a fair chance it would kill me. I'm not alone.
maybe 1% then? in your case - Id that worth stopping your life activity at 60? I woudl have thought a 60 year old probably has about a 1% chance of dying anyway in a given year .
Bought a ton of alcohol in tesco today because there is gonna be f all else to do
I'm just about to go to the giant Sainsbury's and do the same, Camden Hells is on for £13 for 12 bottles I think which is pretty cheap, might get as many of those as I can carry.
Camden Hells is a great choice. I went for many cans of Shipyard American IPA.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
Not disimilar to Mr Johnson, a little older, similar height, and slightly less weight and girth. He almost succumbed.
I also expect the NHS put more effort into saving Mr Johnson than they would me.
No idea how close Boris came to succumbing but stats show only about 360 people have died WITH (not necessarily because of ) covid-19 under 60 in the UK. That is frankly not registering hardly on the scale when 1,600 people day every day of the year in the UK. The UK needs to stop its covid-19 obsession
I'm happy to obsess, in the hope that I make it through to this time next year. The laws of probability are not optimal if one is the wrong side of the, albeit small, fatality statistics.
As I have to go out to earn a crust, while I am out I am taking every precaution I can to reduce my own probability of catching the virus.
Some interesting points in the poll detail - first, the swing counties (those which either Clinton or Biden won by less than 10 points in 2016) are much closer than they were. A 47-40 lead for Biden has reversed to a 47-46 Trump lead bringing more of these swing areas into play and suggesting the Biden campaign needs to concentrate on these marginal areas.
That said, Trump faces a solid phalanx of opposition from half the electorate and while it's not impossible for a candidate to win 50% of the vote and lose in the EC, it's not easy.
Only 2% remain Undecided so there are few minds not yet made up.
The poll is 809 voters with a 3.5% Margin of Error.
We've finally had a poll from Nebraska CD2 (Nebraska has 5 EC votes, 2 for the whole State and one each for the three Congressional Districts). Trump won all 5 last time but CD2 was 47-45 and the latest poll puts Biden up 48-41 so I'm putting that in the Biden camp.
On the basis of Rasmussen last night, I've moved Nevada to TCTC so I'm currently at 269-143 for Biden with 126 in the TCTC column.
Mr. D, aye. Maybe calling half the electorate 'deplorables' in a dead heat contest and spending resources in California rather than battleground states were rather more significant factors.
Clinton was the anti-Hannibal. Her defeat was the antithesis of Cannae, the work of her own doing, to her own detriment.
But misogyny WAS a factor. This is undeniable.
I think that for every one voter who didn't vote Hillary Clinton because she was a woman there were ten who did so because she was Hillary Clinton.
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
Boris is destroying Brexit, the Union and the Conservative Party.
Honestly, you oppose everything these days! 😉
I am now going to surprise you and praise a government decision, namely, Truss’s recent and rather low-key announcement on the GRA, especially the focus on making sure that there are adequate resources to help those who are in this position. This is a positive step and I really do hope the practical steps - and necessary funding - will be invested.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
Your hyperbole weakens your argument, such as it is. I'm just over 60, but because of bad stuff (i.e. health issues) in my past I fear that if I get it there's a fair chance it would kill me. I'm not alone.
maybe 1% then? in your case - Id that worth stopping your life activity at 60? I woudl have thought a 60 year old probably has about a 1% chance of dying anyway in a given year .
Much higher than that if I catch it. But the point is, although I'm really careful it hasn't stopped my life. I go to the pub, out to restaurants, and out for walks. I'm a bit more careful with my grown-up children, all in jobs where they could catch it, so I keep my distance - but I still see them. I think what irritates me is the view that life has come to an end because of the restrictions. It hasn't; I have a great life, just a bit different from the one I had back in February.
The whole concept of "lockdown" has, in my view, always been a myth.
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
Your hyperbole weakens your argument, such as it is. I'm just over 60, but because of bad stuff (i.e. health issues) in my past I fear that if I get it there's a fair chance it would kill me. I'm not alone.
maybe 1% then? in your case - Id that worth stopping your life activity at 60? I woudl have thought a 60 year old probably has about a 1% chance of dying anyway in a given year .
Much higher than that if I catch it. But the point is, although I'm really careful it hasn't stopped my life. I go to the pub, out to restaurants, and out for walks. I'm a bit more careful with my grown-up children, all in jobs where they could catch it, so I keep my distance - but I still see them. I think what irritates me is the view that life has come to an end because of the restrictions. It hasn't; I have a great life, just a bit different from the one I had back in February.
The whole concept of "lockdown" has, in my view, always been a myth.
Well as of Wednesday I won’t legally be allowed to see my friends, family, or pretty much anyone. Be it at a pub or a restaurant. I can maybe go for a walk but it’s coming on for winter now so that’s no fun.
Boris is destroying Brexit, the Union and the Conservative Party.
Yep, tis a shame about the Union, though perhaps inevitable considering the increasing divergence of Scottish and English politics. I will raise a glass to his destruction of the other two.
I don't expect that it will be too hostile a break up with Scotland. Sturgeon is almost more popular South of the border as she is North of it.
All the bookies will lose money on a Trump win. He's the choice of the average punter I reckon
Pulpy, do you actually know that or is it a guess? I would have thought that the volumes traded would have made it very easy to run an all-green book.
It's a guess !
Confirmed on twitter by Ladbrokes now though.
So the bookies are 'taking a view'. They do this more than is generally thought, i.e., they act like punters rather than bookies when they are fairly sure of an outcome. And like punters they sometimes come unstuck.
I spoke to Shadsy not long before Cameron's surprise win and he told me that Lads' book was so lopsided that he felt the need to run the matter past his boss. The reply was to the effect that although the firm might lose a shedload on the betting if Cameron won, its share price would leap so high that the Board wouldn't give a stuff, and young Shads need not fear for his job.
Since he is still in situ I think we can take it that the man was as good as his word.
A bit unfair to call the thing he explicitly said wasn't a prediction, a prediction.
A bit confusing him doing a big representation of stuff he thought would happen in future and saying it was not a prediction. Like saying "This is not a threat, but I know where you live and the route your kids take to school."
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
Of course, most of the "takes" we'll get when Biden wins is about a 'rejection' of nationalism/conservatism in favour of supranationalism/liberalism.
It will be bollocks. So it's important to listen to those who know what they're talking about.
Biden likes cars, he still has the Corvette Stingray that his dad gave him as a wedding present. For all Joe's faults, it is very hard to make him out to be opposed to the American Blue collar way of life.
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
I might write a thread header on this.
I don't think we can re-join the EU as it exists now. As to what the EU might be in 50 years time, I've genuinely no clue. I don't believe political union to be inevitable nor do I think the whole thing will collapse in acrimony. Some form of free-trading bloc seems inevitable - the paradox is it might move back to something with which the UK might have been comfortable once.
The other side is we don't know what the UK will become outside the EU - it's conceivable we could be more internationalist/globalist in outlook but it's also possible we become more insular. That is one of the key political questions of the next 20 years and we've barely considered it here or anywhere.
There may be a "fit", a renewed convergence between Britain and Europe sometime in the future - I certainly don't discount it. I've always predicted a Conservative Prime Minister will one day take us into the common European currency because he or she will argue it is clearly in our economic interests. Pragmatism usually wins out over ideology in the end.
A bit unfair to call the thing he explicitly said wasn't a prediction, a prediction.
A bit confusing him doing a big representation of stuff he thought would happen in future and saying it was not a prediction. Like saying "This is not a threat, but I know where you live and the route your kids take to school."
Did he say he thought it would happen, or that it demonstrated how quickly things could get out of hand?
Boris is destroying Brexit, the Union and the Conservative Party.
Honestly, you oppose everything these days! 😉
I am now going to surprise you and praise a government decision, namely, Truss’s recent and rather low-key announcement on the GRA, especially the focus on making sure that there are adequate resources to help those who are in this position. This is a positive step and I really do hope the practical steps - and necessary funding - will be invested.
I agree, and I suspect Starmer (although there will be dissent) wants to end up with Labour policy in pretty much the same place as Truss/Tories on the GRA. This is one of those issues where it would be really helpful if both main parties adopted the same stance. It may take some of the heat out of the issue (and away from J.K. Rowling and others who don't deserve the abuse they get).
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
I might write a thread header on this.
I don't think we can re-join the EU as it exists now. As to what the EU might be in 50 years time, I've genuinely no clue. I don't believe political union to be inevitable nor do I think the whole thing will collapse in acrimony. Some form of free-trading bloc seems inevitable - the paradox is it might move back to something with which the UK might have been comfortable once.
The other side is we don't know what the UK will become outside the EU - it's conceivable we could be more internationalist/globalist in outlook but it's also possible we become more insular. That is one of the key political questions of the next 20 years and we've barely considered it here or anywhere.
There may be a "fit", a renewed convergence between Britain and Europe sometime in the future - I certainly don't discount it. I've always predicted a Conservative Prime Minister will one day take us into the common European currency because he or she will argue it is clearly in our economic interests. Pragmatism usually wins out over ideology in the end.
I expect that both Lib Dems and Labour will run next GE on a "closer ties" European policy, the Lib Dems probably EEA.
The EEA is not a stable situation though, and Britons will want a seat back in "the room where it happens".
I don't see any of Brexit, EEA or Rejoin being guaranteed to be stable situations. Indeed WTO Brexit is the least stable.
Mr. D, aye. Maybe calling half the electorate 'deplorables' in a dead heat contest and spending resources in California rather than battleground states were rather more significant factors.
Clinton was the anti-Hannibal. Her defeat was the antithesis of Cannae, the work of her own doing, to her own detriment.
But misogyny WAS a factor. This is undeniable.
I think that for every one voter who didn't vote Hillary Clinton because she was a woman there were ten who did so because she was Hillary Clinton.
Oh I don't doubt her non gender debits as a candidate. But let's not airbrush the misogyny away. Doing that validates it.
A bit unfair to call the thing he explicitly said wasn't a prediction, a prediction.
A bit confusing him doing a big representation of stuff he thought would happen in future and saying it was not a prediction. Like saying "This is not a threat, but I know where you live and the route your kids take to school."
Did he say he thought it would happen, or that it demonstrated how quickly things could get out of hand?
He thought it would happen in some possible futures. It's not what you say, its how what you say is going to be (mis)understood. If you don't understand that you should not be doing Addresses to the Nation.
Boris is destroying Brexit, the Union and the Conservative Party.
Yep, tis a shame about the Union, though perhaps inevitable considering the increasing divergence of Scottish and English politics. I will raise a glass to his destruction of the other two.
I don't expect that it will be too hostile a break up with Scotland. Sturgeon is almost more popular South of the border as she is North of it.
Yeah, its how intelligent, educated people vote. 😅
More how intelligent university professors vote, graduates especially in the private sector often vote Republican eg Romney won the graduate vote in 2012 even if graduates are not keen on Trump
Trump should be moving down in the betting because he has yet to get near to overhauling Biden. Yes the debates could change it but its unlikely if Biden in anyway turns up, the guy can out blunt Trump at his best and has enough attack routes to drive through him if he turns up to the debates.
Biden's relative position is better than Clinton's in 2016 full stop. He is nowhere as divisive as Clinton plus the Democrats are taking no chances In 2016 they thought they had it, they aren't so cocky this time.
We are also dealing with a very small rump of undecided voters here, such is the polarisation, that its going to have to be a really bad time for Biden over the next 6 or so weeks for this to turn enough. The hidden damage here for Trump that still isn't clear is motivation. Last time around there was a sliver of GOP voters who hated the man and didn't vote for him, this time that sliver is a visible slice of the pie chart. The motivation of possible voters to get Trump above 45% I'd say is in doubt right now. What some people this side of the ocean fail to understand in their ignorance is that for all the bullshit conception that the GOP voter base is just bunch of gun toting play soldiers & evangelicals, the GOP voter base has plenty of shades and I suspect enough of them are exhausted by Trump. They may be GOP leaning or even regular GOP voters but they dislike the clown act and they dislike their country looking like a clown show.
And again I will say this as I have been saying for months, The bad news for Trump will keep rolling because a) the guy is fundamentally corrupt and b) what we are now seeing is plenty of people, covertly or overtly, wanting to be on the right side of history so are putting their head above the parapet.
The NYT has more on the tax returns but whether they have insight into one of the many bombs that can be dropped is yet unknown. Who does he owe the money to, really? What is Deutsche Banks role and what info have they handed over? That is a daisy cutter sized story.
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
I might write a thread header on this.
I don't think we can re-join the EU as it exists now. As to what the EU might be in 50 years time, I've genuinely no clue. I don't believe political union to be inevitable nor do I think the whole thing will collapse in acrimony. Some form of free-trading bloc seems inevitable - the paradox is it might move back to something with which the UK might have been comfortable once.
The other side is we don't know what the UK will become outside the EU - it's conceivable we could be more internationalist/globalist in outlook but it's also possible we become more insular. That is one of the key political questions of the next 20 years and we've barely considered it here or anywhere.
There may be a "fit", a renewed convergence between Britain and Europe sometime in the future - I certainly don't discount it. I've always predicted a Conservative Prime Minister will one day take us into the common European currency because he or she will argue it is clearly in our economic interests. Pragmatism usually wins out over ideology in the end.
I expect that both Lib Dems and Labour will run next GE on a "closer ties" European policy, the Lib Dems probably EEA.
The EEA is not a stable situation though, and Britons will want a seat back in "the room where it happens".
I don't see any of Brexit, EEA or Rejoin being guaranteed to be stable situations. Indeed WTO Brexit is the least stable.
Rejoin likely means the Euro so EFTA is the likely long term solution and we can still do our own trade deals outside the Customs Union
Seven Hundred and Fifty Dollars 1.05 Tremendous 1.17 Climate Change 1.33 Fake News 1.33 Law and Order 1.44 Florida 1.50 Pennsylvania 1.50 China Virus 1.73 Twitter 1.80 Texas 1.91 Fake Polls 2.00 Putin 2.00 Radical Socialist 2.00 Rigged Election 2.00 Sleepy Joe 2.00 Clinton 2.25 Golf 2.50 Reagan 2.50 Founding Fathers 3.00 McCain 3.00 Peaceful Transfer 3.00 Bernie 3.50 Unfit for Office 3.50 Brave Troops 4.00 Hard Working Americans 4.00 Malarkey 5.00 Nobody Thought it was Possible 5.00 Are You Kidding Me? 6.00 Terrific Person 6.00 Kanye 7.00 Beautiful Wall 11.00 Brexit 11.00 Greatest President Ever 11.00 Lock Him Up 11.00 Boris 17.00 Bookies 21.00 Person Woman Man Camera TV 21.00 Meghan Markle 26.00
Nothing really leaping out at me but I have put a few pennies on
Boris is destroying Brexit, the Union and the Conservative Party.
Honestly, you oppose everything these days! 😉
I am now going to surprise you and praise a government decision, namely, Truss’s recent and rather low-key announcement on the GRA, especially the focus on making sure that there are adequate resources to help those who are in this position. This is a positive step and I really do hope the practical steps - and necessary funding - will be invested.
Trump should be moving down in the betting because he has yet to get near to overhauling Biden. Yes the debates could change it but its unlikely if Biden in anyway turns up, the guy can out blunt Trump at his best and has enough attack routes to drive through him if he turns up to the debates.
Biden's relative position is better than Clinton's in 2016 full stop. He is nowhere as divisive as Clinton plus the Democrats are taking no chances In 2016 they thought they had it, they aren't so cocky this time.
We are also dealing with a very small rump of undecided voters here, such is the polarisation, that its going to have to be a really bad time for Biden over the next 6 or so weeks for this to turn enough. The hidden damage here for Trump that still isn't clear is motivation. Last time around there was a sliver of GOP voters who hated the man and didn't vote for him, this time that sliver is a visible slice of the pie chart. The motivation of possible voters to get Trump above 45% I'd say is in doubt right now. What some people this side of the ocean fail to understand in their ignorance is that for all the bullshit conception that the GOP voter base is just bunch of gun toting play soldiers & evangelicals, the GOP voter base has plenty of shades and I suspect enough of them are exhausted by Trump. They may be GOP leaning or even regular GOP voters but they dislike the clown act and they dislike their country looking like a clown show.
And again I will say this as I have been saying for months, The bad news for Trump will keep rolling because a) the guy is fundamentally corrupt and b) what we are now seeing is plenty of people, covertly or overtly, wanting to be on the right side of history so are putting their head above the parapet.
The NYT has more on the tax returns but whether they have insight into one of the many bombs that can be dropped is yet unknown. Who does he owe the money to, really? What is Deutsche Banks role and what info have they handed over? That is a daisy cutter sized story.
On today's Monmouth poll if just 3% of voters move from Biden to Trump after tomorrow's debate then Trump takes a popular vote lead never mind the EC, this is not over by any means
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
I might write a thread header on this.
I don't think we can re-join the EU as it exists now. As to what the EU might be in 50 years time, I've genuinely no clue. I don't believe political union to be inevitable nor do I think the whole thing will collapse in acrimony. Some form of free-trading bloc seems inevitable - the paradox is it might move back to something with which the UK might have been comfortable once.
The other side is we don't know what the UK will become outside the EU - it's conceivable we could be more internationalist/globalist in outlook but it's also possible we become more insular. That is one of the key political questions of the next 20 years and we've barely considered it here or anywhere.
There may be a "fit", a renewed convergence between Britain and Europe sometime in the future - I certainly don't discount it. I've always predicted a Conservative Prime Minister will one day take us into the common European currency because he or she will argue it is clearly in our economic interests. Pragmatism usually wins out over ideology in the end.
I expect that both Lib Dems and Labour will run next GE on a "closer ties" European policy, the Lib Dems probably EEA.
The EEA is not a stable situation though, and Britons will want a seat back in "the room where it happens".
I don't see any of Brexit, EEA or Rejoin being guaranteed to be stable situations. Indeed WTO Brexit is the least stable.
Rejoin likely means the Euro so EFTA is the likely long term solution and we can still do our own trade deals outside the Customs Union
Quick question - re: the NHS app. Am i to understand that the inputting of positive test results is a manual thing? And do you actually have to have had a positive result to input it (is there some sort of validation code that goes with it or something?).
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
As I understand it you get a code, so only a genuine test result can be input.
You just cannot control a virus , you can arguably suppress it and then when you go back to normal it comes out again - Learn to live with it and get on with life
We tried that, the NHS almost got overwhelmed
As opposed to being distinctly underwhelmed in the last few months . This country needs to quickly get over its covid -19 obsession
You youngsters!
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
No idea how old you are but unless you are in nursing home you will almost certainly survive it unless you are about 99
Your hyperbole weakens your argument, such as it is. I'm just over 60, but because of bad stuff (i.e. health issues) in my past I fear that if I get it there's a fair chance it would kill me. I'm not alone.
maybe 1% then? in your case - Id that worth stopping your life activity at 60? I woudl have thought a 60 year old probably has about a 1% chance of dying anyway in a given year .
Much higher than that if I catch it. But the point is, although I'm really careful it hasn't stopped my life. I go to the pub, out to restaurants, and out for walks. I'm a bit more careful with my grown-up children, all in jobs where they could catch it, so I keep my distance - but I still see them. I think what irritates me is the view that life has come to an end because of the restrictions. It hasn't; I have a great life, just a bit different from the one I had back in February.
The whole concept of "lockdown" has, in my view, always been a myth.
It has stopped my life. I`m pleased that you are coping with it, but for me my life is now dominated by worry and postponed or destroyed plans.
I`m at the prime of my life yet my travel plans are up in smoke, my future pension values reduced, my children`s GCSEs and A levels in turmoil. Is it worth them going to university now? The economy is shafted - where will they find work? My mother will likely die in a care home having for the last few months only seen staff with masks and having very inadequate visiting arrangements. Friends are about to, or already have, lost their businesses and now face ruin.
I live in a country where grassing each other up is encouraged (indeed, even regarded as a moral good) and anyone sticking up for liberty is regarded as callous. I don`t expect anyone else to be responsible for my health - but one cannot point this out without being shouted down.
I`ve found the willingness of people from the left and right to give up the basic freedoms of living in a liberal democracy extremely surprising and frightening. Will we get them back? - I don`t take that for granted.
Every day it feels like my life is on hold. I`m living day-to-day, trying to keep my chin up, buoyed by the facts that I am naturally optimistic (really) and stoic. But, even so, yes, it`s pretty much stopped my life. This is a catastrophe and I cannot understand how anyone can tolerate this unless you didn`t really like the freedoms of living in a liberal democracy in the first place.
Of course, most of the "takes" we'll get when Biden wins is about a 'rejection' of nationalism/conservatism in favour of supranationalism/liberalism.
It will be bollocks. So it's important to listen to those who know what they're talking about.
I think you, and the tweeter, are right here.
It’s similar to Sir Keir’s strategy for Labour.
As an aside, I’m a very liberal guy but also enthusiastically patriotic when it comes to sports. I couldn’t give a toss about the monarchy (were it up to me, I’d get rid after the Queen but I know it’s not going to happen), but I find the concept of not caring whether the England football, cricket and rugby teams win or lose rather alien.
Trump should be moving down in the betting because he has yet to get near to overhauling Biden. Yes the debates could change it but its unlikely if Biden in anyway turns up, the guy can out blunt Trump at his best and has enough attack routes to drive through him if he turns up to the debates.
Biden's relative position is better than Clinton's in 2016 full stop. He is nowhere as divisive as Clinton plus the Democrats are taking no chances In 2016 they thought they had it, they aren't so cocky this time.
We are also dealing with a very small rump of undecided voters here, such is the polarisation, that its going to have to be a really bad time for Biden over the next 6 or so weeks for this to turn enough. The hidden damage here for Trump that still isn't clear is motivation. Last time around there was a sliver of GOP voters who hated the man and didn't vote for him, this time that sliver is a visible slice of the pie chart. The motivation of possible voters to get Trump above 45% I'd say is in doubt right now. What some people this side of the ocean fail to understand in their ignorance is that for all the bullshit conception that the GOP voter base is just bunch of gun toting play soldiers & evangelicals, the GOP voter base has plenty of shades and I suspect enough of them are exhausted by Trump. They may be GOP leaning or even regular GOP voters but they dislike the clown act and they dislike their country looking like a clown show.
And again I will say this as I have been saying for months, The bad news for Trump will keep rolling because a) the guy is fundamentally corrupt and b) what we are now seeing is plenty of people, covertly or overtly, wanting to be on the right side of history so are putting their head above the parapet.
The NYT has more on the tax returns but whether they have insight into one of the many bombs that can be dropped is yet unknown. Who does he owe the money to, really? What is Deutsche Banks role and what info have they handed over? That is a daisy cutter sized story.
On today's Monmouth poll if just 3% of voters move from Biden to Trump after tomorrow's debate then Trump takes a popular vote lead never mind the EC, this is not over by any means
Mr. D, aye. Maybe calling half the electorate 'deplorables' in a dead heat contest and spending resources in California rather than battleground states were rather more significant factors.
Clinton was the anti-Hannibal. Her defeat was the antithesis of Cannae, the work of her own doing, to her own detriment.
But misogyny WAS a factor. This is undeniable.
I think that for every one voter who didn't vote Hillary Clinton because she was a woman there were ten who did so because she was Hillary Clinton.
Oh I don't doubt her non gender debits as a candidate. But let's not airbrush the misogyny away. Doing that validates it.
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
I might write a thread header on this.
Pragmatism usually wins out over ideology in the end.
Four years’ experience suggests it can be a long wait
Trump should be moving down in the betting because he has yet to get near to overhauling Biden. Yes the debates could change it but its unlikely if Biden in anyway turns up, the guy can out blunt Trump at his best and has enough attack routes to drive through him if he turns up to the debates.
Biden's relative position is better than Clinton's in 2016 full stop. He is nowhere as divisive as Clinton plus the Democrats are taking no chances In 2016 they thought they had it, they aren't so cocky this time.
We are also dealing with a very small rump of undecided voters here, such is the polarisation, that its going to have to be a really bad time for Biden over the next 6 or so weeks for this to turn enough. The hidden damage here for Trump that still isn't clear is motivation. Last time around there was a sliver of GOP voters who hated the man and didn't vote for him, this time that sliver is a visible slice of the pie chart. The motivation of possible voters to get Trump above 45% I'd say is in doubt right now. What some people this side of the ocean fail to understand in their ignorance is that for all the bullshit conception that the GOP voter base is just bunch of gun toting play soldiers & evangelicals, the GOP voter base has plenty of shades and I suspect enough of them are exhausted by Trump. They may be GOP leaning or even regular GOP voters but they dislike the clown act and they dislike their country looking like a clown show.
And again I will say this as I have been saying for months, The bad news for Trump will keep rolling because a) the guy is fundamentally corrupt and b) what we are now seeing is plenty of people, covertly or overtly, wanting to be on the right side of history so are putting their head above the parapet.
The NYT has more on the tax returns but whether they have insight into one of the many bombs that can be dropped is yet unknown. Who does he owe the money to, really? What is Deutsche Banks role and what info have they handed over? That is a daisy cutter sized story.
On today's Monmouth poll if just 3% of voters move from Biden to Trump after tomorrow's debate then Trump takes a popular vote lead never mind the EC, this is not over by any means
The Trump camp have yet to land their bombs - what will they be? Or is Trump too narcissistic to even bother? Plenty of ammo to work on - Biden dementia? Creepy Joe paedophile? Communist threat? Hunter Biden? (Rassmussen polling had Trump leading by 1% :Sep17)
Of course, most of the "takes" we'll get when Biden wins is about a 'rejection' of nationalism/conservatism in favour of supranationalism/liberalism.
It will be bollocks. So it's important to listen to those who know what they're talking about.
I think you, and the tweeter, are right here.
It’s similar to Sir Keir’s strategy for Labour.
As an aside, I’m a very liberal guy but also enthusiastically patriotic when it comes to sports. I couldn’t give a toss about the monarchy (were it up to me, I’d get rid after the Queen but I know it’s not going to happen), but I find the concept of not caring whether the England football, cricket and rugby teams win or lose rather alien.
If you are Scottish or Welsh or Northern Irish though obviously you will not care if England wins or loses (except maybe if you are Welsh at cricket as it is the England and Wales cricket team technically) however you should support the British Lions or the UK Olympic team certainly or the GB Davis Cup team
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
I might write a thread header on this.
I don't think we can re-join the EU as it exists now. As to what the EU might be in 50 years time, I've genuinely no clue. I don't believe political union to be inevitable nor do I think the whole thing will collapse in acrimony. Some form of free-trading bloc seems inevitable - the paradox is it might move back to something with which the UK might have been comfortable once.
The other side is we don't know what the UK will become outside the EU - it's conceivable we could be more internationalist/globalist in outlook but it's also possible we become more insular. That is one of the key political questions of the next 20 years and we've barely considered it here or anywhere.
There may be a "fit", a renewed convergence between Britain and Europe sometime in the future - I certainly don't discount it. I've always predicted a Conservative Prime Minister will one day take us into the common European currency because he or she will argue it is clearly in our economic interests. Pragmatism usually wins out over ideology in the end.
I expect that both Lib Dems and Labour will run next GE on a "closer ties" European policy, the Lib Dems probably EEA.
The EEA is not a stable situation though, and Britons will want a seat back in "the room where it happens".
I don't see any of Brexit, EEA or Rejoin being guaranteed to be stable situations. Indeed WTO Brexit is the least stable.
Rejoin likely means the Euro so EFTA is the likely long term solution and we can still do our own trade deals outside the Customs Union
I thought EFTA didn't want us back?
They have said they would accept us if we agreed free movement, if the EU forces Sweden and Denmark to join the Euro or leave they might rejoin EFTA too
I bet if you asked, do you want to rejoin it would still be minority support though!
Rejoin doesnt work for me as it is not stable. We would be back in this mess looking to leave within 10 or 20 years.
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
I might write a thread header on this.
I don't think we can re-join the EU as it exists now. As to what the EU might be in 50 years time, I've genuinely no clue. I don't believe political union to be inevitable nor do I think the whole thing will collapse in acrimony. Some form of free-trading bloc seems inevitable - the paradox is it might move back to something with which the UK might have been comfortable once.
The other side is we don't know what the UK will become outside the EU - it's conceivable we could be more internationalist/globalist in outlook but it's also possible we become more insular. That is one of the key political questions of the next 20 years and we've barely considered it here or anywhere.
There may be a "fit", a renewed convergence between Britain and Europe sometime in the future - I certainly don't discount it. I've always predicted a Conservative Prime Minister will one day take us into the common European currency because he or she will argue it is clearly in our economic interests. Pragmatism usually wins out over ideology in the end.
I expect that both Lib Dems and Labour will run next GE on a "closer ties" European policy, the Lib Dems probably EEA.
The EEA is not a stable situation though, and Britons will want a seat back in "the room where it happens".
I don't see any of Brexit, EEA or Rejoin being guaranteed to be stable situations. Indeed WTO Brexit is the least stable.
They almost certainly will, but Stodge's post is very prescient. Looking to EEA/EFTA, Euro etc. is looking back to 1990s/early 00s conversations.
The debate moving into the 2030s will be about a world where power is moving to Asia, the West is being eclipsed, and nations want to preserve their identities and their values.
So, I can see a case for less European political integration (crime & justice, "rights", currency and social policy), but *more* collaboration on realpolitik issues (defence, intelligence and migration), and a closer global alliance of the democracies - including agreed economic arrangements.
The existing models cannot (and won't) be static because they won't then be fit for purpose.
Funnily enough, most of us seem to agree on this even though the EU still has, for now, a one-track mind.
Comments
Otherwise a malign actor could lockdown half the country by wandering all over London for a few days, and then claiming they had a positive test result.
Exceptions
Leicester and Oadby. Birmingham, Sandwell and Solihull.
Though around 40% will still blame the EU whatever happens, probably.
Astonishing how far ahead at one time Brown was of Cameron? Fall from grace
The stable solution is somewhere within the range of plausible compromise options that very few people in the public want as compromise is a dirty word in the 21st century.
Catch a thought for us older folks, who if we contract Covid-19 could be up the creek without a paddle.
I also expect the NHS put more effort into saving Mr Johnson than they would me.
To change the mood a little, I've been posing down the pub (as a wise man once said before social distancing and 10pm closing).
America isn't the only country voting soon - it's election time in New Zealand on October 17th.
To provide some context, at the last election in 2017, the centre-right National Party won 44.5% of the vote and 56 seats, the centre-left Labour Party won 37% and 46 seats. NZ First won 7% of the vote and 9 seats, the Greens won 6.3% and 8 seats with the liberal ACT winning one seat.
To some surprise, NZ First offered their support not to National but to the Labour/Green option giving the new Government 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.
Jacinda Ardern, who had only been Labour leader for seven weeks, became Prime Minister.
Polls in early 2020 pre-Covid showed National leading by up to 5 points (46-41) but then came Covid and a disastrous winter (as it was there) for National.
The outgoing National Prime Minister, Bill English, had remained leader for just a few months after the election and Simon Bridges has taken over but the performance of the Government in responding to Covid won Ardern considerable praise and by May, National were 26 points behind (56-30) and that triggered a "spill" as they call it in Australasia and Bridges was ousted by rural MP Todd Mueller.
Mueller's tenure was brief and catastrophic and within 8 weeks he was gone with veteran frontbencher Judith Collins took over. A resurgence of Covid cases in Auckland, caused, in some instances, by arrivals breaching quarantine, led to the normal September date for the election being postponed a month.
In most of New Zealand, life is normal with some restrictions still in Auckland.
Last night (NZ), the main pollster, Colmar Brunton, issued their latest poll showing Labour on 47 (-1) and National on 33 (+2)
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-and-greens-in-driving-seat-but-act-still-strong
AC are on 8% and Greens on 7% with a slew of other parties including New Zealand First well below the threshold to enter Parliament under the MMP system.
In terms of seats, Labour would win 59 (+13), National 43 (-13), Greens 8 (nc) and ACT 10 (+9).
A Labour/Green Coalition would have 67 seats and a comfortable. Some earlier polls had shown Labour winning up to 65 seats on their own but this poll suggests they won't quite win a majority as it stands.
As I have to go out to earn a crust, while I am out I am taking every precaution I can to reduce my own probability of catching the virus.
twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1310643992221057025
A Monmouth poll has Biden leading 50-44 among Registered voters and 50-45 among Likely voters.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_092820/
Some interesting points in the poll detail - first, the swing counties (those which either Clinton or Biden won by less than 10 points in 2016) are much closer than they were. A 47-40 lead for Biden has reversed to a 47-46 Trump lead bringing more of these swing areas into play and suggesting the Biden campaign needs to concentrate on these marginal areas.
That said, Trump faces a solid phalanx of opposition from half the electorate and while it's not impossible for a candidate to win 50% of the vote and lose in the EC, it's not easy.
Only 2% remain Undecided so there are few minds not yet made up.
The poll is 809 voters with a 3.5% Margin of Error.
We've finally had a poll from Nebraska CD2 (Nebraska has 5 EC votes, 2 for the whole State and one each for the three Congressional Districts). Trump won all 5 last time but CD2 was 47-45 and the latest poll puts Biden up 48-41 so I'm putting that in the Biden camp.
On the basis of Rasmussen last night, I've moved Nevada to TCTC so I'm currently at 269-143 for Biden with 126 in the TCTC column.
https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1310644010478952454?s=20
Of course, most of the "takes" we'll get when Biden wins is about a 'rejection' of nationalism/conservatism in favour of supranationalism/liberalism.
It will be bollocks. So it's important to listen to those who know what they're talking about.
I am now going to surprise you and praise a government decision, namely, Truss’s recent and rather low-key announcement on the GRA, especially the focus on making sure that there are adequate resources to help those who are in this position. This is a positive step and I really do hope the practical steps - and necessary funding - will be invested.
The whole concept of "lockdown" has, in my view, always been a myth.
Brexit is destroying this country!
As I said from day one, Brexit is a calamity and Brexiteers are morons!
That doesn’t sound like a very good life to me.
I don't expect that it will be too hostile a break up with Scotland. Sturgeon is almost more popular South of the border as she is North of it.
I spoke to Shadsy not long before Cameron's surprise win and he told me that Lads' book was so lopsided that he felt the need to run the matter past his boss. The reply was to the effect that although the firm might lose a shedload on the betting if Cameron won, its share price would leap so high that the Board wouldn't give a stuff, and young Shads need not fear for his job.
Since he is still in situ I think we can take it that the man was as good as his word.
https://youtu.be/BQVpzCxumGY
The other side is we don't know what the UK will become outside the EU - it's conceivable we could be more internationalist/globalist in outlook but it's also possible we become more insular. That is one of the key political questions of the next 20 years and we've barely considered it here or anywhere.
There may be a "fit", a renewed convergence between Britain and Europe sometime in the future - I certainly don't discount it. I've always predicted a Conservative Prime Minister will one day take us into the common European currency because he or she will argue it is clearly in our economic interests. Pragmatism usually wins out over ideology in the end.
The EEA is not a stable situation though, and Britons will want a seat back in "the room where it happens".
I don't see any of Brexit, EEA or Rejoin being guaranteed to be stable situations. Indeed WTO Brexit is the least stable.
https://twitter.com/BelTel/status/1232290650751631360?s=20
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1310186338071777281?s=20
Polling errors are not always in one direction.
Biden's relative position is better than Clinton's in 2016 full stop. He is nowhere as divisive as Clinton plus the Democrats are taking no chances In 2016 they thought they had it, they aren't so cocky this time.
We are also dealing with a very small rump of undecided voters here, such is the polarisation, that its going to have to be a really bad time for Biden over the next 6 or so weeks for this to turn enough. The hidden damage here for Trump that still isn't clear is motivation. Last time around there was a sliver of GOP voters who hated the man and didn't vote for him, this time that sliver is a visible slice of the pie chart. The motivation of possible voters to get Trump above 45% I'd say is in doubt right now. What some people this side of the ocean fail to understand in their ignorance is that for all the bullshit conception that the GOP voter base is just bunch of gun toting play soldiers & evangelicals, the GOP voter base has plenty of shades and I suspect enough of them are exhausted by Trump. They may be GOP leaning or even regular GOP voters but they dislike the clown act and they dislike their country looking like a clown show.
And again I will say this as I have been saying for months, The bad news for Trump will keep rolling because a) the guy is fundamentally corrupt and b) what we are now seeing is plenty of people, covertly or overtly, wanting to be on the right side of history so are putting their head above the parapet.
The NYT has more on the tax returns but whether they have insight into one of the many bombs that can be dropped is yet unknown. Who does he owe the money to, really? What is Deutsche Banks role and what info have they handed over? That is a daisy cutter sized story.
Seven Hundred and Fifty Dollars 1.05
Tremendous 1.17
Climate Change 1.33
Fake News 1.33
Law and Order 1.44
Florida 1.50
Pennsylvania 1.50
China Virus 1.73
Twitter 1.80
Texas 1.91
Fake Polls 2.00
Putin 2.00
Radical Socialist 2.00
Rigged Election 2.00
Sleepy Joe 2.00
Clinton 2.25
Golf 2.50
Reagan 2.50
Founding Fathers 3.00
McCain 3.00
Peaceful Transfer 3.00
Bernie 3.50
Unfit for Office 3.50
Brave Troops 4.00
Hard Working Americans 4.00
Malarkey 5.00
Nobody Thought it was Possible 5.00
Are You Kidding Me? 6.00
Terrific Person 6.00
Kanye 7.00
Beautiful Wall 11.00
Brexit 11.00
Greatest President Ever 11.00
Lock Him Up 11.00
Boris 17.00
Bookies 21.00
Person Woman Man Camera TV 21.00
Meghan Markle 26.00
Nothing really leaping out at me but I have put a few pennies on
Sorry, I let my frustration boil over sometimes!
There are plenty of intelligent and educated people in business who don't exhibit such an extreme skew.
I`m at the prime of my life yet my travel plans are up in smoke, my future pension values reduced, my children`s GCSEs and A levels in turmoil. Is it worth them going to university now? The economy is shafted - where will they find work? My mother will likely die in a care home having for the last few months only seen staff with masks and having very inadequate visiting arrangements. Friends are about to, or already have, lost their businesses and now face ruin.
I live in a country where grassing each other up is encouraged (indeed, even regarded as a moral good) and anyone sticking up for liberty is regarded as callous. I don`t expect anyone else to be responsible for my health - but one cannot point this out without being shouted down.
I`ve found the willingness of people from the left and right to give up the basic freedoms of living in a liberal democracy extremely surprising and frightening. Will we get them back? - I don`t take that for granted.
Every day it feels like my life is on hold. I`m living day-to-day, trying to keep my chin up, buoyed by the facts that I am naturally optimistic (really) and stoic. But, even so, yes, it`s pretty much stopped my life. This is a catastrophe and I cannot understand how anyone can tolerate this unless you didn`t really like the freedoms of living in a liberal democracy in the first place.
Just thought I`d give an alternative view.
It’s similar to Sir Keir’s strategy for Labour.
As an aside, I’m a very liberal guy but also enthusiastically patriotic when it comes to sports. I couldn’t give a toss about the monarchy (were it up to me, I’d get rid after the Queen but I know it’s not going to happen), but I find the concept of not caring whether the England football, cricket and rugby teams win or lose rather alien.
Plenty of ammo to work on - Biden dementia? Creepy Joe paedophile? Communist threat? Hunter Biden?
(Rassmussen polling had Trump leading by 1% :Sep17)
The debate moving into the 2030s will be about a world where power is moving to Asia, the West is being eclipsed, and nations want to preserve their identities and their values.
So, I can see a case for less European political integration (crime & justice, "rights", currency and social policy), but *more* collaboration on realpolitik issues (defence, intelligence and migration), and a closer global alliance of the democracies - including agreed economic arrangements.
The existing models cannot (and won't) be static because they won't then be fit for purpose.
Funnily enough, most of us seem to agree on this even though the EU still has, for now, a one-track mind.