Trump moving downwards in the WH2020 betting following the publication of his tax returns – politica

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Trump moving downwards in the WH2020 betting following the publication of his tax returns – politicalbetting.com

Latest WH2020 betting trend following the Trump tax return revelations. Chart of Betfair market from @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/1kpbe3UPSD

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eek

First unlike Trump

Toms

Sad to say, money reaches spots that common sense often does not.

Alphabet_Soup

I wouldn't bet the farm on a contest that might be decided in the Supreme Court rather than the Electoral College.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1310592204344381442

isam

If the second wave of infections don't result in a significant number of deaths, can we refer to them as "The Emperor's New Colds"?

contrarian

isam said:

If the second wave of infections don't result in a significant amount of deaths, can we refer to them as "The Emperor's New Colds"?

Pretty good.

IanB2

Sixth. Sitting in a Black Forest weinstube listening to a guy who ordered his meal in fluent German, is interviewing a colleague for a new role in fluent English and just took a mobile call in fluent Italian. Language skills to admire.

It's a while since I have driven through Switzerland and had forgotten it is mostly motorway in tunnels. Fresh snow on the high Alps, remarkably for September.

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

MaxPB

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

Gadfly

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

turbotubbs

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

? I see 5693. Still a good to see it not racing away (and with plenty of testing done too).

FrancisUrquhart

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

? I see 5693. Still a good to see it not racing away (and with plenty of testing done too).

I think you are suffering the same problem I have, the dashboard says it has updated, but it doesn't flush the new data through.

isam

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Not this chart?

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1310598065900998663?s=20

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

I was already down there waiting for it to blow over.

Gadfly

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

? I see 5693.

That was the number released yesterday.

turbotubbs

From the dashboard

RobD

Now, where's that mission accomplished banner?

IanB2

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

When and how to watch?

Philip_Thompson

isam said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Not this chart?

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1310598065900998663?s=20

While that seems reassuring, I would want to see it continue and see the positivity rate chart before being reassured.

In France and Spain the data showed an increase in cases smaller than that chart, but the positivity rate went from 1% to 10% which shows that testing has lost control. In the UK last I saw positivity had gone up from 0.6% to 1.5%, I would like to see that go back down again.

contrarian

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

MaxPB

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

IanB2

Trumpy's hairdo costs $70,000 per year?

Gadfly

IanB2 said:

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

When and how to watch?

Google tells me that The Sun's YouTube channel will have the debate live.

MaxPB

It also looks like the growth in new hospitalisations is slowing down, maybe even falling now. It should hopefully show up in the totals soon.

IanB2

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

Based on what? More likely, people's behaviour adapted regardless of the government's silly pronouncements. And the supply of infected-in-spring tested-in-summer 'new' positives has finally dried up.

Gadfly

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

When and how to watch?

Google tells me that The Sun's YouTube channel will have the debate live.

Alternatively: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000nfgd

Philip_Thompson

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

That can't be right, it is too confusing . . .

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Not this chart?

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1310598065900998663?s=20

While that seems reassuring, I would want to see it continue and see the positivity rate chart before being reassured.

In France and Spain the data showed an increase in cases smaller than that chart, but the positivity rate went from 1% to 10% which shows that testing has lost control. In the UK last I saw positivity had gone up from 0.6% to 1.5%, I would like to see that go back down again.

It came with a disclaimer

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1310597159641808896?s=20

alex_

Do we think that whilst lots assumed that the Whitty/Vallance chart was an attempt to scare everyone into demanding new tighter restrictions, it was actually an elaborate double bluff to pivot to a rapid herd immunity strategy?

Because I don’t care how much the graph was misrepresented, “not a forecast” etc, they’ve either been set up to be discredited rapidly in the eyes of public opinion, or they’re cunning geniuses.

Pulpstar

Visiting my parents, just had a look at the map - 40 cases in the msoa !

Nigelb

IanB2 said:

Trumpy's hairdo costs $70,000 per year?

If you had hair like that, how much might you spend to ameliorate it ?

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

I would be a lot happier if we had no indoor household mixing (or much reduced mixing) like Scotland.

contrarian

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

Based on what? More likely, people's behaviour adapted regardless of the government's silly pronouncements. And the supply of infected-in-spring tested-in-summer 'new' positives has finally dried up.

Correct.

LostPassword

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

I would be a lot happier if we had no indoor household mixing (or much reduced mixing) like Scotland.

If everyone stuck to the six rule it'd probably work

rpjs

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

I doubt it. Trump has set such a low bar for Biden that all Joe has to do to get at worst a draw is to turn up. Couple that with Trump refusing to prepare, and maybe Biden finding something to trigger Trump (how about "You've failed as President and now we know you failed as businessman"?) a Trump meltdown is not to be ruled out.

Gadfly

alex_ said:

Do we think that whilst lots assumed that the Whitty/Vallance chart was an attempt to scare everyone into demanding new tighter restrictions, it was actually an elaborate double bluff to pivot to a rapid herd immunity strategy?

Because I don’t care how much the graph was misrepresented, “not a forecast” etc, they’ve either been set up to be discredited rapidly in the eyes of public opinion, or they’re cunning geniuses.

I think the petri dish of student accommodation will soon inform us whether to set our stalls by Whitty/Vallance or Heneghan/Jefferson et al.

Philip_Thompson

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

Based on what? More likely, people's behaviour adapted regardless of the government's silly pronouncements. And the supply of infected-in-spring tested-in-summer 'new' positives has finally dried up.

If infected in spring, tested in summer was a major factor then why did the positivity rate and case numbers only go up in the past few weeks and not beforehand?

Big_G_NorthWales

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1310601590970224647?s=09

Gallowgate

North East “lockdown” restrictions to tighten further. We’ll now be banned from meeting people outside our household anywhere, not just in our houses or gardens.

Brilliant.

CorrectHorseBattery

If rule of six - which I do support, I never claimed it was confusing, I think it should have been in place since the end of lockdown 1.0 - is working then great.

Let's keep it in place consistently, rather than getting overconfident and arrogant again and opening up.

CorrectHorseBattery

I do think household meetings should probably be restricted to outdoors for safety and the curfew for pubs is stupid

londonpubman

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

I would be a lot happier if we had no indoor household mixing (or much reduced mixing) like Scotland.

Looks like ANY mixing household indoors including in pubs is going to be stopped BY LAW in North East

Per Sky/implied by Hancock in Commons.

Definition of 'North East' unclear - likely to be the same areas affected by the existing North East lockdown

Presumably bubbles are exempted.

Check government guidance for confirmation ie DYOR!

NickPalmer

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

Anecdotally, my impression too. It's easy to understand, and hasn't actually changed for at least a week. But I do know people who were previously only seeing one other household who are now seeing two.

MaxPB

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

Based on what? More likely, people's behaviour adapted regardless of the government's silly pronouncements. And the supply of infected-in-spring tested-in-summer 'new' positives has finally dried up.

Based on the underlying reduction in social contact it causes. I don't think the dead virus positives are all that high, if they were there would many, many more positive cases given that 1 in 12 people have already had the virus (and almost 1 in 6 in London).

Nigelb

This is basically just a three card monte, with the IRS as the sucker:
https://slate.com/business/2020/09/trumps-taxes-audit-loss-irs.html

CorrectHorseBattery

Philip is being disingenuous.

The guidance has been confusing overall, the Government has flip flopped all over the shop.

Rule of six was the first decent bit of guidance they've put in in months

Philip_Thompson

I wonder if a factor might be foreign travel?

August is the time with the most foreign travel and that then had the case rate and positivity rate increase. ONS figures today I heard earlier today said that people who had travelled abroad were 3.5x more likely to get the infection.

Now we're in gloomy September, there will be more of a return to (the new) 'normal' and less foreign travel I assume?

turbotubbs

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

? I see 5693. Still a good to see it not racing away (and with plenty of testing done too).

I think you are suffering the same problem I have, the dashboard says it has updated, but it doesn't flush the new data through.

Aha! So even better then.

CorrectHorseBattery

Have we got any data for London?

Big_G_NorthWales

londonpubman said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

I would be a lot happier if we had no indoor household mixing (or much reduced mixing) like Scotland.

Looks like ANY mixing household indoors including in pubs is going to be stopped BY LAW in North East

Per Sky/implied by Hancock in Commons.

Definition of 'North East' unclear - likely to be the same areas affected by the existing North East lockdown

Presumably bubbles are exempted.

Check government guidance for confirmation ie DYOR!

I have heard from a good source all Wales will go into lockdown tomorrow

I hope not but it is possible

londonpubman

Big_G_NorthWales said:

londonpubman said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

I would be a lot happier if we had no indoor household mixing (or much reduced mixing) like Scotland.

Looks like ANY mixing household indoors including in pubs is going to be stopped BY LAW in North East

Per Sky/implied by Hancock in Commons.

Definition of 'North East' unclear - likely to be the same areas affected by the existing North East lockdown

Presumably bubbles are exempted.

Check government guidance for confirmation ie DYOR!

I have heard from a good source all Wales will go into lockdown tomorrow

I hope not but it is possible

I don't have any Welsh sources but it is perfectly plausible - 2/3 already.

Drakeford needs to sort out the 'let's allow a single householder to be in an eligible extended household' issue now. IE eligible to meet with another household even under the lockdown

Nigelb

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

Anecdotally, my impression too. It's easy to understand, and hasn't actually changed for at least a week...

Touch of irony there ?

londonpubman

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Have we got any data for London?

397 for London today - 10% of 4,044 national number - so a bit lower than would be expected proportionately

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London

contrarian

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

Nigelb

rpjs said:

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

I doubt it. Trump has set such a low bar for Biden that all Joe has to do to get at worst a draw is to turn up. Couple that with Trump refusing to prepare, and maybe Biden finding something to trigger Trump (how about "You've failed as President and now we know you failed as businessman"?) a Trump meltdown is not to be ruled out.

"...had my hair cut specially for the debate.
Cost me $50."

contrarian

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder if a factor might be foreign travel?

August is the time with the most foreign travel and that then had the case rate and positivity rate increase. ONS figures today I heard earlier today said that people who had travelled abroad were 3.5x more likely to get the infection.

Now we're in gloomy September, there will be more of a return to (the new) 'normal' and less foreign travel I assume?

people can travel overseas?

Big_G_NorthWales

I am impressed how many on this forum have such detailed knowledge of the stats, testing and the like but at times it is far to technical for me

If someone could help by condensing it to layman's language in non political terms it would be greatly appreciated.

LostPassword

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

It's not the absolute numbers now that are worrying. It's the increase and the nature of exponential growth that means - without corrective action - it can quickly spiral out of control.

There's a lot of hope being expressed on here that the light tap on the brakes from Johnson last week - widely derided at the time as insufficient and a mere prelude to more severe steps - may turn out to be enough to bring the situation back under control.

No sign of the panic you wish to deride today (that will come later in the week if the numbers breach 10k).

MaxPB

Another interesting point, the delta between tests and results is still falling. The demand for tests has clearly gone down over the last few days, finger in the air I'd guess it has gone down from an average of around 3 days to get a result at peak to around 2 days right now, doesn't mean that all tests results are back within that two days, but at least half come in before that vs half within three days when there was a real crunch. In the ideal scenario we'd have around 80% returned within two days and 100% within 4 days, we're still a long way from that.

dixiedean

Gallowgate said:

North East “lockdown” restrictions to tighten further. We’ll now be banned from meeting people outside our household anywhere, not just in our houses or gardens.

Brilliant.

So what are the NE figures?
Can only find NE and Yorks. Grrr!

bigjohnowls

If Trump gets int financial difficulty over his massive debt, surely he could sue the charlatan to whom he paid $70,000 dollars in a year to do his "hair"

MaxPB

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am impressed how many on this forum have such detailed knowledge of the stats, testing and the like but at times it is far to technical for me

If someone could help by condensing it to layman's language in non political terms it would be greatly appreciated.

Cases are down for the last two days, but it could be due to being a weekend, though that wasn't the case last week when they continued to rise. The reduction in new cases tracks almost exactly to the rule of six introduction.

contrarian

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

It's not the absolute numbers now that are worrying. It's the increase and the nature of exponential growth that means - without corrective action - it can quickly spiral out of control.

There's a lot of hope being expressed on here that the light tap on the brakes from Johnson last week - widely derided at the time as insufficient and a mere prelude to more severe steps - may turn out to be enough to bring the situation back under control.

No sign of the panic you wish to deride today (that will come later in the week if the numbers breach 10k).

It really does sound to me as if we are never getting our lives back. Ever. What if the virus spirals out of control? trumps all.

rpjs

Nigelb said:

rpjs said:

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

I doubt it. Trump has set such a low bar for Biden that all Joe has to do to get at worst a draw is to turn up. Couple that with Trump refusing to prepare, and maybe Biden finding something to trigger Trump (how about "You've failed as President and now we know you failed as businessman"?) a Trump meltdown is not to be ruled out.

"...had my hair cut specially for the debate.
Cost me $50."

Even here in super-expensive Westchester County I can get my hair cut for less than twenty bucks!

contrarian

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

It's not the absolute numbers now that are worrying. It's the increase and the nature of exponential growth that means - without corrective action - it can quickly spiral out of control.

There's a lot of hope being expressed on here that the light tap on the brakes from Johnson last week - widely derided at the time as insufficient and a mere prelude to more severe steps - may turn out to be enough to bring the situation back under control.

No sign of the panic you wish to deride today (that will come later in the week if the numbers breach 10k).

OldKingCole

rpjs said:

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

I doubt it. Trump has set such a low bar for Biden that all Joe has to do to get at worst a draw is to turn up. Couple that with Trump refusing to prepare, and maybe Biden finding something to trigger Trump (how about "You've failed as President and now we know you failed as businessman"?) a Trump meltdown is not to be ruled out.

Might not be a bad idea to provoke him. Trump goes ballistic over something then Biden looks straight to camera and asks 'Do you want THAT finger on the nuclear button?"

FF43

If this is a meaningful drop rather than a blip, I suspect it isn't because of the rule of six policy. It isn't following the pattern of the initial lockdown that went to a gradual flattening then a slow drop. It might actually be down to better testing (and people self isolating when they or a close contact has been diagnosed).

Nigelb

rpjs said:

Nigelb said:

rpjs said:

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

I doubt it. Trump has set such a low bar for Biden that all Joe has to do to get at worst a draw is to turn up. Couple that with Trump refusing to prepare, and maybe Biden finding something to trigger Trump (how about "You've failed as President and now we know you failed as businessman"?) a Trump meltdown is not to be ruled out.

"...had my hair cut specially for the debate.
Cost me $50."

Even here in super-expensive Westchester County I can get my hair cut for less than twenty bucks!

Yes, but for a presidential debate ?
Splurge a little.

OldKingCole

O/t, but someone in our techie or well informed community might know.
I've downloaded the Covid-9- app. And signed in when I went to the gym. However when I check, I can't sign out and it runs on until midnight. So if I leave the gym at 10am and someone who is Covid-19 positive is around at 6pm, do I get contacted? And if I do, how do I prove I wasn't there.

Nigelb

Nebraska CD2 - Biden +7.

Richard_Tyndall

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1310601590970224647?s=09

The problem of course is that the police and the authorities have been rather partial in their interpretation in terms of what demonstrations they break up. BLM marches apparently are okay but anti-lockdown marches are not.

I agree with the 82%. Unfortunately it seems those directing the police do not - or at least not all the time.

LostPassword

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

It's not the absolute numbers now that are worrying. It's the increase and the nature of exponential growth that means - without corrective action - it can quickly spiral out of control.

There's a lot of hope being expressed on here that the light tap on the brakes from Johnson last week - widely derided at the time as insufficient and a mere prelude to more severe steps - may turn out to be enough to bring the situation back under control.

No sign of the panic you wish to deride today (that will come later in the week if the numbers breach 10k).

It really does sound to me as if we are never getting our lives back. Ever. What if the virus spirals out of control? trumps all.

In principle it should be possible to use test, trace and isolate to control the spread of the virus.

The measures to essentially semi-isolate everyone are only necessary to avoid a public health disaster because the government managed to spend £12bn and not have a functioning test, trace and isolate system.

Cicero

A friend of mine in South Carolina has been telling me all summer that Lyndsey Graham is in trouble... Looks like he is: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-biden-opinion-poll-georgia-north-carolina-supreme-court-09-27-2020/

While I know we are all traumatised by 2016, it couldn't be that actually we are seeing a Biden landslide in the making could it?

felix

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

I think you are way too optimistic - yes the deaths are lower than at the peak of the first wave even here in Spain. However, they have been rising steadily and the numbers tend to shoot up once the more vulnerable catch it. I think the majority of cases in the second wave have affected the younger more resistant groups but the more they get it the more likely they pass it on to elderly friends/relatives, etc. Also we still low little about the long-term effects of this disease on those who have few or mild symptoms - but some of the signs are not good. I do not favour full lockdown or anything like it but there are measures all can take to reduce risk - they are mostly simple, sensible and far from draconian.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1310489732082737152

Well, duh...

rottenborough

Cicero said:

A friend of mine in South Carolina has been telling me all summer that Lyndsey Graham is in trouble... Looks like he is: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-biden-opinion-poll-georgia-north-carolina-supreme-court-09-27-2020/

While I know we are all traumatised by 2016, it couldn't be that actually we are seeing a Biden landslide in the making could it?

QTWTAIN?

Stocky

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

It's not the absolute numbers now that are worrying. It's the increase and the nature of exponential growth that means - without corrective action - it can quickly spiral out of control.

There's a lot of hope being expressed on here that the light tap on the brakes from Johnson last week - widely derided at the time as insufficient and a mere prelude to more severe steps - may turn out to be enough to bring the situation back under control.

No sign of the panic you wish to deride today (that will come later in the week if the numbers breach 10k).

It really does sound to me as if we are never getting our lives back. Ever. What if the virus spirals out of control? trumps all.

The question is: if new infections are rising but severe health issues/deaths are not then does it matter? Or at least does it warrant the economic damage and liberty curtailments?

These are big questions, and people on each side of these questions will use the statistics to nourish their own bias.

Andy_JS

"The metrics of fear
How the UK has been scared into submission

Laura Dodsworth"

https://thecritic.co.uk/the-metrics-of-fear/

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1310605735798112263

noneoftheabove

Cicero said:

A friend of mine in South Carolina has been telling me all summer that Lyndsey Graham is in trouble... Looks like he is: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-biden-opinion-poll-georgia-north-carolina-supreme-court-09-27-2020/

While I know we are all traumatised by 2016, it couldn't be that actually we are seeing a Biden landslide in the making could it?

The result according to votes cast? Quite possibly.

The result according to the supreme court? Nah.

contrarian

felix said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

I think you are way too optimistic - yes the deaths are lower than at the peak of the first wave even here in Spain. However, they have been rising steadily and the numbers tend to shoot up once the more vulnerable catch it. I think the majority of cases in the second wave have affected the younger more resistant groups but the more they get it the more likely they pass it on to elderly friends/relatives, etc. Also we still low little about the long-term effects of this disease on those who have few or mild symptoms - but some of the signs are not good. I do not favour full lockdown or anything like it but there are measures all can take to reduce risk - they are mostly simple, sensible and far from draconian.

We don;t know everything about COVID, but what we do know is that poverty deprivation and mass unemployment are killers. That's certain.

And we are about to get a massive dose of those.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/mrbromwich/status/1310393352421023745

contrarian

contrarian said:

felix said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

I think you are way too optimistic - yes the deaths are lower than at the peak of the first wave even here in Spain. However, they have been rising steadily and the numbers tend to shoot up once the more vulnerable catch it. I think the majority of cases in the second wave have affected the younger more resistant groups but the more they get it the more likely they pass it on to elderly friends/relatives, etc. Also we still low little about the long-term effects of this disease on those who have few or mild symptoms - but some of the signs are not good. I do not favour full lockdown or anything like it but there are measures all can take to reduce risk - they are mostly simple, sensible and far from draconian.

isam

https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1310608729524654080?s=20

Alistair

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

Hard to know if this is true: https://nypost.com/2020/09/27/project-veritas-uncovers-ballot-harvesting-fraud-in-minnesota/

It stars with Project Veritas so best safe to assume it is false.

Why?

Because O'Keefe has a history of releasing, at best, highly misleadingly edited footage?

I mean, literally his first "scoop" ended with him making a 6 figure settlement to the person who got fired due to his misleading video.

Stocky

felix said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

I think you are way too optimistic - yes the deaths are lower than at the peak of the first wave even here in Spain. However, they have been rising steadily and the numbers tend to shoot up once the more vulnerable catch it. I think the majority of cases in the second wave have affected the younger more resistant groups but the more they get it the more likely they pass it on to elderly friends/relatives, etc. Also we still low little about the long-term effects of this disease on those who have few or mild symptoms - but some of the signs are not good. I do not favour full lockdown or anything like it but there are measures all can take to reduce risk - they are mostly simple, sensible and far from draconian.

Trouble is Felix the "once the more vulnerable catch it" argument has been trundling on for weeks now and it largely isn`t happening, it seems to me. Sure hospitalisations are up and deaths have risen from single figures per day to double figures, but these metrics don`t tally with the rate of infection increase (or at least the increase in positive tests, i.e. known infections).

The jury is still out for me. Maybe I`m being optimistic, but it does seem to me that the virus has lost some of its virulence compared to Mar/Apr though I accept that I may be totally wrong..

noneoftheabove

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

4,044 new cases. Cases tracking to the pathway chart fairly well.

Crisis over, down the pub everybody?

To my mind the rule of six is actually working.

I would be a lot happier if we had no indoor household mixing (or much reduced mixing) like Scotland.

And lots of single people would be less happy. The rule of six is at least fair between different sized households.

dr_spyn

Ed Davey waiting for Government.

twitter.com/PAImages/status/1310601544480567296

SandyRentool

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

Was 1% fatality before treatments were developed. Around 0.5% sounds par for the course.

contrarian

Stocky said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

The seven-day averages for cases and deaths in France are 12,179 and 64. If you take the seven-day average for cases from two weeks ago that was 8,045. So perhaps a CFR of about 0.8%.

That indicates to me that they're probably still missing cases in France and I'd guess a younger cohort is currently being infected.

This is all consistent with what we know about the virus. What's your point?

My point is that many on here are wetting their nappies about 6,000 cases when double that number right now transfers to numbers of deaths in France that are less than one tenth of those who die every day from other common conditions.

It's not the absolute numbers now that are worrying. It's the increase and the nature of exponential growth that means - without corrective action - it can quickly spiral out of control.

There's a lot of hope being expressed on here that the light tap on the brakes from Johnson last week - widely derided at the time as insufficient and a mere prelude to more severe steps - may turn out to be enough to bring the situation back under control.

No sign of the panic you wish to deride today (that will come later in the week if the numbers breach 10k).

It really does sound to me as if we are never getting our lives back. Ever. What if the virus spirals out of control? trumps all.

The question is: if new infections are rising but severe health issues/deaths are not then does it matter? Or at least does it warrant the economic damage and liberty curtailments?

These are big questions, and people on each side of these questions will use the statistics to nourish their own bias.

Severe health issues and deaths are rising, just outside the COVID arena....

Stocky

SandyRentool said:

contrarian said:

French cases rarely below 5,000 for a month now.

Deaths yesterday?

less than thirty

Was 1% fatality before treatments were developed. Around 0.5% sounds par for the course.

No - you are comparing known new infections instead of actual new infections. Actual infections may be twice, 5 x , 10x, the known infections (over 70% asymptomatic).

CorrectHorseBattery

If the action by Gov does work all credit to them

noneoftheabove

OldKingCole said:

rpjs said:

Gadfly said:

IanB2 said:

Hopefully today is the day that Trump reelection hopes died.

Likewise, but the narrative may change again following tomorrow's debates.

I doubt it. Trump has set such a low bar for Biden that all Joe has to do to get at worst a draw is to turn up. Couple that with Trump refusing to prepare, and maybe Biden finding something to trigger Trump (how about "You've failed as President and now we know you failed as businessman"?) a Trump meltdown is not to be ruled out.

Might not be a bad idea to provoke him. Trump goes ballistic over something then Biden looks straight to camera and asks 'Do you want THAT finger on the nuclear button?"

Both of them are on the record as wanting a physical fight vs the other and both probably think they would win. Dont rule it out. The organisers should be contacting Jerry Springer for some bouncers.

Foxy

Cicero said:

A friend of mine in South Carolina has been telling me all summer that Lyndsey Graham is in trouble... Looks like he is: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-biden-opinion-poll-georgia-north-carolina-supreme-court-09-27-2020/

While I know we are all traumatised by 2016, it couldn't be that actually we are seeing a Biden landslide in the making could it?

The polls have barely budged since March despite everything that has happened. There are 5 weeks to go and Trump is flailing around in defence of the indefensible. I have thought for a while that we will have a decisive Biden victory, and a landslide is quite possible, including down ticket races for Senate, Congress and Governors.

Trump sub 210, I reckon, which makes the Spreads quite attractive.

CorrectHorseBattery

YouGov interests me.

Keir 7 point lead on best PM which is up but overall Labour down.

I suspect the average puts the results at something like a 2 point Tory lead over all the polls?

Grandiose

Grandiose said:

After Quinnipac showed a tie, CBS now has Lindsey Graham just 1% ahead in his race to keep his Senate seat. (A man has to hope...!)

Big_G_NorthWales

MaxPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am impressed how many on this forum have such detailed knowledge of the stats, testing and the like but at times it is far to technical for me

If someone could help by condensing it to layman's language in non political terms it would be greatly appreciated.

Cases are down for the last two days, but it could be due to being a weekend, though that wasn't the case last week when they continued to rise. The reduction in new cases tracks almost exactly to the rule of six introduction.

Thank you. That information is much appreciated

Nigelb

This is good news.

Global initiative will supply 120m rapid antigen tests to low- and middle-income countries
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/covid-19-tests-that-give-results-in-minutes-to-be-rolled-out-across-world

MaxPB

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If the action by Gov does work all credit to them

The 10pm closing time might show up as a negative in the next 7 days and result in more new cases. We will also be seeing the result of uni and Freshers week soon as well, there's a lot of downsides at the moment and not a lot of upside. I really think the 10pm closing time will prove to be a big misstep, doing nothing would have been better.