Categories
Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms – po
Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms – politicalbetting.com
One of the striking features of the pattern of current Trump v Biden polling is how much it looks like the main polling for the Midterms in 2018. Just like that for the White House race now the Democratic lead in generic congressional polling followed a pretty contant 7-8% in the polling averages. As it turned out the 2018 surveys undershot the Dem final total by more than one point.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
New web design looks good. Thanks to RCS, it's no small task makes such a significant change.
I see Boris coasted to an easy win over Internal Market Bill. Only the Lords might cause him some grief.
I don't know how important the rest of the shadow cabinet is, but undoubtedly Starmer could do better with the top tier positions. I'm sure Dodds knows her stuff, but she hasn't developed as a politician. Miliband as Shadow Chancellor and Cooper as Shadow Home Sec would give a bit of political gravitas to Starmer's team.
Of course, they might also show up their leader as being a bit dull.
Maybe he is 'dull' after a leader who is charismatic but who, if he told you the sun was shining, would cause you to look out the window to check and who thinks honesty is a flower, not a virtue, (if he ever gives 'honesty' a thought) he might be what the public wants.
But hopefully not incompetent.
Perhaps the most telling thing about using Ed Miliband is that Angela Rayner wasn't trusted with the job.
Many who thought themselves smarter.
But he ended PM,
CH and OM
An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.
https://twitter.com/chrismusson/status/1305629477125476353?s=21
Patel is not my cup of tea but she has also been quite effective. But with Ashworth, Reeves and now Miliband (again) the balance between the cabinet and the shadow cabinet is closer than it was throughout the sad Corbyn era.
The inability to demonise Biden in the way that he did Clinton is a real problem for Trump. His base really need a bit of hate, a bit of fear, a lot of motivation. Sleepy Joe is just not threatening.
If that continues to rise then he is surely next President elect.
Clinton's leads 4 years ago were with a much lower share of the vote - and then undecideds/others jumped to Trump. There are far fewer undecideds/others this year.
Truss has done a great job and is miles better than her predecessor.
Patel is much better than the occupant of that office under Cameron.
I am not sure how Trump turns this around. Even Biden being incoherent has been discounted because, let's face it, he always has been. Voter suppression will help but he needs more. A vaccine break through? Maybe, but time is short.
Traditionally both candidates improve on their polling share from here. With Biden's very high share he is recording I would put it at very odds on that he will win an absolute majority of the popular vote, rather than just a plurality. Very hard for Trump to overcome that.
So it will be with Boris and indeed almost all politicians. Trump too will pass and it will be for the next generation of Republicans to restore their party.
Funny I don't seem to recall you singing their praises at the time.
And actually, I don't agree. Our government is not even good at doling out barrowloads of money. Look at the chaos and inefficiency that came with WFTC as an example. Sunak has kept some of the Scottish economy alive despite Sturgeon's best efforts. She's not finished yet though.
Nor do they need to pass a law allowing them to break the law in a limited and very specific way. Just do whatever they want how they want and have Philip/HYUFD/BluestBlue et al say yebbut they have a majority or whatever. Nor does the measure in question have to have anything to do with what they say it is - Shagger drooled on about GB to NI whilst promoting a bill that explicitly didn't cover that.
So a nice convention they are trying to set. Police arrested you and kept you locked up without charge for 3 weeks? Its cos the EU are trying to remove the common arrest warrant. A minister accidentally sits next to a developer at a £3k a plate party dinner and accidentally saves the developer millions? Its because the EU are trying to stop us fishing or something. And so on.
Its definitely not a concern that Her Majesty's Government no longer understands the laws it passes only months before, sees no need to obey the law, and is happy to say black is white. Absolutely no reason for anyone - especially alleged conservatives - to consider the impact that a lying lawless government of the present or the future could have upon their lives citing this precedent. No concern at all...
"Labour MPs hooted and honked. Tories, meanwhile, just looked glum. Duffed up by the school swot. I’m not sure which side of the House was the more surprised."
(Telegraph parliamentary sketch)
"Boris Johnson's proposal to break international law 'in a specific and limited way' has sparked uproar. But do you remember when the UK broke the Geneva Convention? Oh. Well we did. The government ratified the Geneva Convention on the Sea on 10 September 1964. From then the UK was bound forever by the treaty and bound by international law. On 25 September 1964, we were not. No explanation was given. No explanation was asked.
Our Judge who ruled in favour of the government when it broke the Geneva Convention of the Sea, said this:
'the Crown [The Government] has a sovereign right, which the court cannot question, to change its policy, even if this involves breaking an international convention to which it is a party and which has come into force so recently as fifteen days before'.
That Judge became Lord Diplock and he was, one of our very best judges. He was utterly silent on whether or not he thought that example of breaking international law was good or bad – silent because it is a question of politics. Obeying this law is part of our Rule of Law. In a way some may find confusing, that may mean we must obey this law – that we can break international law."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-didn-t-the-eu-punish-germany-when-it-broke-international-law-
And Johnson made him look like Demosthenes.
I do think that Keir needs a bit of a reshuffle if some of his new faces remain invisible, and he should use Rayner more. Apart from anything else, for internal party management. She is the potential queen over the water for the Left.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/14/coronavirus-death-rate-could-halved-new-blood-biomarker-tests/
Possibly available next spring. Sounds a better bet than this landing on the moon nonsense.
BBC keeps bring people on to show what rot Patel was talking, why can’t they have people saying how wonderful it’s is at present, scrap the license fee sack Liniker.
Do you respect Lord Diplock as a jurist? What do you think of this?
'the Crown [The Government] has a sovereign right, which the court cannot question, to change its policy, even if this involves breaking an international convention to which it is a party and which has come into force so recently as fifteen days before'.
In all seriousness I agree with the Sumption critique. Judges who think that they know better are ultimately a threat to democracy.
This would suggest that, for example, Florida doesn't flip without a landslide:
GOP: 52.35%, Dem: 47.10%
...but Biden's gonna win Iowa:
Dem: 50.52%, GOP: 46.54%