Austria: "What we are experiencing at the moment is the beginning of the second wave. The contagion figures are increasing every day," said Federal Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. at a press conference in Vienna. "Two weeks ago there were about 350 new cases a day; yesterday there were more than 850. The situation is particularly dramatic in Vienna, where 50% of all new infections were recorded in Austria," Kurz said. Along with other members of the Government, he has asked for "responsibility" to prevent a loss of control of contagions from being reached, which forces to decree a general confinement like the one practiced in March. This Monday the restrictions that had been lifted come into force, such as the obligation to use masks in all closed public spaces. Eating or drinking standing up, or in the bar is prohibited in restaurants, and customers are only allowed to remove their mask when seated at a table. With exceptions that require special permission, any show without custom-assigned seats is prohibited, while reducing the maximum number of attendees, up to 50 if it is indoors, and 100 when it is held outdoors.
Seems to be Europe wide
Quite a leap from some short time period data just from Austria (today’s figure being much lower). Germany is still doing well and Italy better than us
Couple more polls reported on RCP. (Apologies if already posted.)
Arizona - Biden up 3 and up 9 in Minnesota. Both with YouGov.
I'd say the Arizona score is middling to good for Trump in the light of other polls. Minnesota is looking very bad though. This is bang in line with other polls. I'm not sure it counts as a swing state any more. Anybody any ideas why it's gone so sour for the President?
hasn't gone sour for the bookies. 6/4 best price for Trump to win Minnesota.
There are clearly some people out there who are sceptical about the polls
There are lots of reasons to be sceptical of the polls.
However, I am also old enough to remember back in 2012, when there was a poster on this site called @StuartTruth, who would forensically take apart every poll and show that Obama was overstated.
It turned out - slightly ironically - that the pollsters had got it wrong. Indeed, the pollsters were more wrong in 2012 than in any of the other elections since 1980 (much more wrong that 2016), and Obama was understated.
Since 1980, at the national level, the poll of polls got within 1.5% of the correct lead in all but one occasion, 2012. Even then, the gap wasn't massive, being just under 3%.
Now, it's possible that Trump is understated by more than 3%. I can certainly give you plausible reasons why that might be the case. (Biden supporters unenthused, concern about CV19 affecting voting patters among Trump opponents, underestimating turnout of High School educated voters.)
But I can also give you plausible reasons why they might be the wrong the other way. (Women make up 55% of Presidential voters, and Biden leads by 15 points with them. Mail in voters are more likely not to forget relative to on the day voters. Plus, there is a long history in the UK and the US of pollsters over-correcting each time.)
There is also the phenomenon of the Trafalgar Group. They deservedly get credit for being one of the only pollsters who called PA correctly in 2016. They ascribe this to the Shy Trump voter so they top up Trump in all of their polls, with the result that they give him much better state polling in swing states than anyone else. I believe others do the same to a greater or lesser extent. However the reason that Trump won in the rust belt states, when polls pointed the other way, was that previously undecided voters overwhelmingly went for him over Clinton. He’s not an unknown entity anymore, there are fewer undecideds, and there is no real evidence of a Shy Trump voter, nor could there be because polling the question asking, essentially, “were you truthful in your previous answers”. So it’s quite possible Biden is being understated.
Conversely, though, I have to admit that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, so Shy Trumpers may be a thing. It’s just that in my experience Trumpers are anything but “shy”.
If Trafalgar Group is correct then Trump will win 286 to 252 with Biden just picking up Pennsylvania where he was born and raised until 10 and holding all the Hillary states. That would be about the same margin as the 286 to 251 margin Bush beat Kerry by to be re elected in 2004.
However I think Biden will likely pick up Arizona too on recent polls and NE02 so that would make it Trump 274 Biden 264 (based too on the fact while Trafalgar were spot on in the Midwest and Pennsylvania in the West they wrongly called Nevada for Trump). That would be the closest margin since the 271 to 266 margin Bush beat Gore by in 2000.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
Not the right solution, secure the care homes, shut the pubs and bars at 11, enforce no standing drinking and other distancing rules, advise the vulnerable. Police it with advice and understanding then come down hard on repeat offenders. Stop forcing people back to the office, split the Health secs job, covid minister/ health minister to get hospitals moving and have proper focus on defeating and controlling the virus. Solve the end of transition but don’t distract the from the key battle of covid. Some of this is happening in Spain but not enough, response spread over too many autonomous communities, but it’s a pan European problem within a global problem, I see no effort to coordinate response.
What about schools?
This to my mind is the killer punch, and I was discussing it with an old friend and colleague who now works in London earlier.
There’s no realistic or consistent way you can keep offices, pubs etc shut and schools fully open. They would become the focus of the outbreak. They would spread it like wildfire through many communities, particularly medium-sized ones with one or two really large schools (e.g. Weston, Thornbury, Burton, Sunderland).
But - we cannot close them because last time we did it was from every point of view a total fucking catastrophe.
This is why a sane government would go for the local option as far as possible. If Chase High and Cardinal Griffin in Cannock have to close, there is no reason for the Friary or Teddy’s in Lichfield to follow suit, still less John Taylor in Barton.
But we haven’t got a sane government, so they’ll find a way to fuck up again somehow.
This is Woakes last over and Archer's bowled his 10 already. They've set us up nicely to have a chance but we need someone else to start taking some wickets ideally.
Couple more polls reported on RCP. (Apologies if already posted.)
Arizona - Biden up 3 and up 9 in Minnesota. Both with YouGov.
I'd say the Arizona score is middling to good for Trump in the light of other polls. Minnesota is looking very bad though. This is bang in line with other polls. I'm not sure it counts as a swing state any more. Anybody any ideas why it's gone so sour for the President?
hasn't gone sour for the bookies. 6/4 best price for Trump to win Minnesota.
There are clearly some people out there who are sceptical about the polls
There are lots of reasons to be sceptical of the polls.
However, I am also old enough to remember back in 2012, when there was a poster on this site called @StuartTruth, who would forensically take apart every poll and show that Obama was overstated.
It turned out - slightly ironically - that the pollsters had got it wrong. Indeed, the pollsters were more wrong in 2012 than in any of the other elections since 1980 (much more wrong that 2016), and Obama was understated.
Since 1980, at the national level, the poll of polls got within 1.5% of the correct lead in all but one occasion, 2012. Even then, the gap wasn't massive, being just under 3%.
Now, it's possible that Trump is understated by more than 3%. I can certainly give you plausible reasons why that might be the case. (Biden supporters unenthused, concern about CV19 affecting voting patters among Trump opponents, underestimating turnout of High School educated voters.)
But I can also give you plausible reasons why they might be the wrong the other way. (Women make up 55% of Presidential voters, and Biden leads by 15 points with them. Mail in voters are more likely not to forget relative to on the day voters. Plus, there is a long history in the UK and the US of pollsters over-correcting each time.)
If you were looking at white voters alone in 2012 the pollsters were correct, Romney in 2012 won a higher voteshare of the white vote of any candidate Democrat or Republican before or since since Bush Snr in 1988 got 60% of the white vote. Romney got 59% of the white vote, higher even than the 58% of the white vote Trump got in 2016.
The only reason Obama was re elected in 2012 was because he got 93% of the black vote and a huge black turnout compared to the just 88% of the black vote Hillary got.
Will Biden match Obama's black voteshare and turnout even with Harris on the ticket? Unlikely
Will Trump match the record breaking share of female voters Biden is likely to get? Unlikely
This is Woakes last over and Archer's bowled his 10 already. They've set us up nicely to have a chance but we need someone else to start taking some wickets ideally.
Eleven overs remain for the Currans.
They have to be key.
But I do not see England winning this match unless they get Carey out quickly. As you say, there just isn’t the threat for a proper batsman once Archer and Woakes are finished.
This is Woakes last over and Archer's bowled his 10 already. They've set us up nicely to have a chance but we need someone else to start taking some wickets ideally.
Eleven overs remain for the Currans.
They have to be key.
But I do not see England winning this match unless they get Carey out quickly. As you say, there just isn’t the threat for a proper batsman once Archer and Woakes are finished.
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
Beyond "get Brexit done" it is painfully obvious this Government has no clue what to do
Couple more polls reported on RCP. (Apologies if already posted.)
Arizona - Biden up 3 and up 9 in Minnesota. Both with YouGov.
I'd say the Arizona score is middling to good for Trump in the light of other polls. Minnesota is looking very bad though. This is bang in line with other polls. I'm not sure it counts as a swing state any more. Anybody any ideas why it's gone so sour for the President?
hasn't gone sour for the bookies. 6/4 best price for Trump to win Minnesota.
There are clearly some people out there who are sceptical about the polls
There are lots of reasons to be sceptical of the polls.
However, I am also old enough to remember back in 2012, when there was a poster on this site called @StuartTruth, who would forensically take apart every poll and show that Obama was overstated.
It turned out - slightly ironically - that the pollsters had got it wrong. Indeed, the pollsters were more wrong in 2012 than in any of the other elections since 1980 (much more wrong that 2016), and Obama was understated.
Since 1980, at the national level, the poll of polls got within 1.5% of the correct lead in all but one occasion, 2012. Even then, the gap wasn't massive, being just under 3%.
Now, it's possible that Trump is understated by more than 3%. I can certainly give you plausible reasons why that might be the case. (Biden supporters unenthused, concern about CV19 affecting voting patters among Trump opponents, underestimating turnout of High School educated voters.)
But I can also give you plausible reasons why they might be the wrong the other way. (Women make up 55% of Presidential voters, and Biden leads by 15 points with them. Mail in voters are more likely not to forget relative to on the day voters. Plus, there is a long history in the UK and the US of pollsters over-correcting each time.)
If you were looking at white voters alone in 2012 the pollsters were correct, Romney in 2012 won a higher voteshare of the white vote of any candidate Democrat or Republican before or since since Bush Snr in 1988 got 60% of the white vote. Romney got 59% of the white vote, higher even than the 58% of the white vote Trump got in 2016.
The only reason Obama was re elected in 2012 was because he got 93% of the black vote and a huge black turnout compared to the just 88% of the black vote Hillary got.
Will Biden match Obama's black voteshare and turnout even with Harris on the ticket? Unlikely
Will Trump match the record breaking share of female voters Biden is likely to get? Unlikely
Hillary got 54% of female voters in 2016 and Biden is not running to be the first female President as she was even if he has a female running mate
Thanks to our Australian-style, world-beating performance with the ball it looks like we could win the cricket (with a significant contribution from Bridgetown-born Jofra Archer). Just need to get rid of Cummin(g)s now, then we can celebrate.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Agree, that will be step one.
Hope you're well Big G
Thanks Horse and yes we are, though our sons daughter (8) had to take a covid test and the family isolate for four days until a negative result and now our daughters son (11) has gone down and the family to isolate until be has had a test and a negative result
It does seem the cold season is here just complicating things even further
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
Beyond "get Brexit done" it is painfully obvious this Government has no clue what to do
Boris is cracking at winning elections - even then he’s been lucky with his opponents - just not up to running things all that well.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Does anyone actually see that as a particularly good way to combat the spread of the virus, or is it just a handy way to simultaneously be seen to be introducing some sort of restriction without simultaneously looking like stopping all socialising (yet).
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
Beyond "get Brexit done" it is painfully obvious this Government has no clue what to do
For Trump, the positive news is that he's narrowed the gap to just five points. For Biden, the positive news is that his share in unchanged on 51%.
A 5 point Biden lead is of course right on the edge of where Nate Silver says Trump could win the EC, just takes a point or two swing more to Trump and he is well into the range where he could win the EC
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Does anyone actually see that as a particularly good way to combat the spread of the virus, or is it just a handy way to simultaneously be seen to be introducing some sort of restriction without simultaneously looking like stopping all socialising (yet).
I think the reality is that it probably won't work and we're headed for a full lockdown anyway - but irrespective of that, it seems to me that the public have started to forget the seriousness of this virus and they need to be made more aware of it (again)
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Does anyone actually see that as a particularly good way to combat the spread of the virus, or is it just a handy way to simultaneously be seen to be introducing some sort of restriction without simultaneously looking like stopping all socialising (yet).
Couple more polls reported on RCP. (Apologies if already posted.)
Arizona - Biden up 3 and up 9 in Minnesota. Both with YouGov.
I'd say the Arizona score is middling to good for Trump in the light of other polls. Minnesota is looking very bad though. This is bang in line with other polls. I'm not sure it counts as a swing state any more. Anybody any ideas why it's gone so sour for the President?
hasn't gone sour for the bookies. 6/4 best price for Trump to win Minnesota.
There are clearly some people out there who are sceptical about the polls
There are lots of reasons to be sceptical of the polls.
However, I am also old enough to remember back in 2012, when there was a poster on this site called @StuartTruth, who would forensically take apart every poll and show that Obama was overstated.
It turned out - slightly ironically - that the pollsters had got it wrong. Indeed, the pollsters were more wrong in 2012 than in any of the other elections since 1980 (much more wrong that 2016), and Obama was understated.
Since 1980, at the national level, the poll of polls got within 1.5% of the correct lead in all but one occasion, 2012. Even then, the gap wasn't massive, being just under 3%.
Now, it's possible that Trump is understated by more than 3%. I can certainly give you plausible reasons why that might be the case. (Biden supporters unenthused, concern about CV19 affecting voting patters among Trump opponents, underestimating turnout of High School educated voters.)
But I can also give you plausible reasons why they might be the wrong the other way. (Women make up 55% of Presidential voters, and Biden leads by 15 points with them. Mail in voters are more likely not to forget relative to on the day voters. Plus, there is a long history in the UK and the US of pollsters over-correcting each time.)
If you were looking at white voters alone in 2012 the pollsters were correct, Romney in 2012 won a higher voteshare of the white vote of any candidate Democrat or Republican before or since since Bush Snr in 1988 got 60% of the white vote. Romney got 59% of the white vote, higher even than the 58% of the white vote Trump got in 2016.
The only reason Obama was re elected in 2012 was because he got 93% of the black vote and a huge black turnout compared to the just 88% of the black vote Hillary got.
Will Biden match Obama's black voteshare and turnout even with Harris on the ticket? Unlikely
Will Trump match the record breaking share of female voters Biden is likely to get? Unlikely
Hillary got 54% of female voters in 2016 and Biden is not running to be the first female President as she was even if he has a female running mate
I find the argument that some of these historical genius should have known better for their out of date views, because well they were a genius, rather odd.
Not only must they have confirmed to a perfectly virtuous life (by modern standards), they must have also been able to see the future and know what they had wrong in advance.
e.g. Considering that black Africans were intellectually inferior to white Europeans, when at the time virtually nobody had visited Africa, let alone have any empirical evidence. Rather it is based on hearsay about things like level of development in those civilisations and what was considered "backward" beliefs they had in comparison to the enlightened European civilisation.
But of course our own civilisation 200 years ago is massively backward in their beliefs of how the world works in every subject from today. And in 200 years will be looked back on what idiots we were today.
There is also the flawed assumption that history has a particular poltical or ethical direction. That's really not true. It's entirely plausible that some of the "right on" things of today will become unacceptable once more in the future, and vice versa.
Interesting comment. Could be right but I'm not sure. Need to think about it.
Can you or anybody else give a few examples of something (non trivial) that used to be socially acceptable but is now unacceptable - e.g. drink driving - that we can envisage becoming acceptable again in the foreseeable future?
Loads of things to do with drug usage and sex have flip and flopped between what is acceptable, and wouldn't be surprised if they continue to do so.
Drugs and sex? Ok. But specifically something that was acceptable, is now unacceptable, but is likely to become acceptable again - not much is springing to mind.
Are you phrasing it in that way to rule out the opposite? Abortion seems the most likely to reverse simply because it is a fundamental conflict of rights.
No, that way - unacceptable to acceptable to unacceptable again - is just as interesting to consider.
Abortion? Well, a big slice of the USA would like to see that happen. Not seeing it myself though. Women will not tolerate such a diminution in status.
Perhaps a bit late to suggest it as it has already happened, but one of the bellwethers of Brexit-related cultural clashes to me was when an English friend in Devon commented to me about 2009-11 about the way in which racialist chatter had suddenly become more acceptable in the local yacht/golf/etc clubs - middle class circles. He was evidently quite struck by it.
Places like Devon and Cornwall are very nice to spend a couple of weeks in during August, but anecdotes like this are why I'd never live there. Just can't be bothered with this kind of shit.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Does anyone actually see that as a particularly good way to combat the spread of the virus, or is it just a handy way to simultaneously be seen to be introducing some sort of restriction without simultaneously looking like stopping all socialising (yet).
On its own no. There are very people willing to stick their necks out with a comprehensive plan, just knee jerk reactions to each days figures.
So she was actually standing as the Conservative candidate when she was urging people not to vote for a Jew. And was OK with the Tories at the time?
She was never allowed to stand for the Tories again after those revelations came to light, however she has worked for the Peoples' Vote campaign since with Labour, the LDs and SNP and the Greens and is now it seems the LD candidate for London Mayor
Btw, any news on the Tory Islamophobia inquiry?
I think they found that any Islamophobia was always in a limited and specific way. If the party finds Islamophobia that they deem unacceptable then of course they will take action.
I expect she did it then because she thought it was the right thing to do as a Conservative. They must have trained her in it.
Since then she has probably realised that it is not acceptable behaviour from anybody. And she has turned her back on the Conservative Party, which is obviously the right thing for everybody to do, especially under its present management.
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Agree, that will be step one.
Hope you're well Big G
Thanks Horse and yes we are, though our sons daughter (8) had to take a covid test and the family isolate for four days until a negative result and now our daughters son (11) has gone down and the family to isolate until be has had a test and a negative result
It does seem the cold season is here just complicating things even further
Isn't it amazing that these 'Covid Secure' locations still allow cold viruses to circulate.
Basically, if someone walks in to a school with Covid, it will rip through their bubble.
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
Beyond "get Brexit done" it is painfully obvious this Government has no clue what to do
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Great idea. Nigel Farage will be outraged, which is an added bonus
Who cares about Farage
The whole Conservative Party perhaps?
They took us out of Europe, made us an international laughing stock, trashed our reputation for playing by the rules and alienated allies all to avoid Farage taking a few seats from them...
"can't even find a decent culture to be colonised by"
Ahem. Scotland was conquered and colonised by the English who also, by the by, created the modern world via the industrial revolution, saved the world during the Second World War, abolished slavery in their spare time, and created the greatest empire the world has ever seen, thereby making English the international language, allowing Scots to be (vaguely) understood all over the globe.
if Scotland hadn't been beaten up and enslaved by England, Scots would still be gargling in their weird little Gaelic tongue, and would also be eating lichen.
Irvine Welsh is simply and factually incorrect here. If you are going to be conquered and colonised, you may as well be conquered and colonised by the best: the English.
For Trump, the positive news is that he's narrowed the gap to just five points. For Biden, the positive news is that his share in unchanged on 51%.
A 5 point Biden lead is of course right on the edge of where Nate Silver says Trump could win the EC, just takes a point or two swing more to Trump and he is well into the range where he could win the EC
Rooting for the big orange fellow again? I thought you said, given a vote it would be for Biden.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Great idea. Nigel Farage will be outraged, which is an added bonus
Who cares about Farage
The whole Conservative Party perhaps?
They took us out of Europe, made us an international laughing stock, trashed our reputation for playing by the rules and alienated allies all to avoid Farage taking a few seats from them...
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
Not the right solution, secure the care homes, shut the pubs and bars at 11, enforce no standing drinking and other distancing rules, advise the vulnerable. Police it with advice and understanding then come down hard on repeat offenders. Stop forcing people back to the office, split the Health secs job, covid minister/ health minister to get hospitals moving and have proper focus on defeating and controlling the virus. Solve the end of transition but don’t distract the from the key battle of covid. Some of this is happening in Spain but not enough, response spread over too many autonomous communities, but it’s a pan European problem within a global problem, I see no effort to coordinate response.
What about schools?
This to my mind is the killer punch, and I was discussing it with an old friend and colleague who now works in London earlier.
There’s no realistic or consistent way you can keep offices, pubs etc shut and schools fully open. They would become the focus of the outbreak. They would spread it like wildfire through many communities, particularly medium-sized ones with one or two really large schools (e.g. Weston, Thornbury, Burton, Sunderland).
But - we cannot close them because last time we did it was from every point of view a total fucking catastrophe.
This is why a sane government would go for the local option as far as possible. If Chase High and Cardinal Griffin in Cannock have to close, there is no reason for the Friary or Teddy’s in Lichfield to follow suit, still less John Taylor in Barton.
But we haven’t got a sane government, so they’ll find a way to fuck up again somehow.
Our three kids are in a combined "bubble" of over 500 people. They are crammed 30 to a room, with teachers moving between year groups. At break they are crammed into tiny playgrounds. There is zero social distancing. The idea that the virus can be contained while schools remain open is laughable. There are three options: keep schools open and accept there will be a huge second wave (but try to protect the vulnerable, impossible if granny lives with the grandkids); Shut the schools and accept that a generation of kids (except perhaps in the private sector) are going to have a substandard education; or reconfigure schools to deliver a mixture of high quality distance learning and in person socially distanced education. I would have gone with option 3 personally but it looks like the government never even considered it.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Great idea. Nigel Farage will be outraged, which is an added bonus
Who cares about Farage
The whole Conservative Party perhaps?
They took us out of Europe, made us an international laughing stock, trashed our reputation for playing by the rules and alienated allies all to avoid Farage taking a few seats from them...
This conservative does not care about him
On this we must disagree.
On the contrary, they are terrified of their vote splitting to BXP, that will be the end of their majority in any future election.
For Trump, the positive news is that he's narrowed the gap to just five points. For Biden, the positive news is that his share in unchanged on 51%.
A 5 point Biden lead is of course right on the edge of where Nate Silver says Trump could win the EC, just takes a point or two swing more to Trump and he is well into the range where he could win the EC
Yes.
Of course, at the same probability range (i.e sub 10%) you also have Biden winning on a 0-1% lead, based on exactly the same tweet from Nate Silver.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Great idea. Nigel Farage will be outraged, which is an added bonus
Who cares about Farage
The whole Conservative Party perhaps?
They took us out of Europe, made us an international laughing stock, trashed our reputation for playing by the rules and alienated allies all to avoid Farage taking a few seats from them...
This conservative does not care about him
On this we must disagree.
On the contrary, they are terrified of their vote splitting to BXP, that will be the end of their majority in any future election.
It doesn't alter the fact I do not care about him, indeed he is persona non grata to me
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
I expect the time is coming for a 10.00pm to 5.00am curfew
Great idea. Nigel Farage will be outraged, which is an added bonus
Who cares about Farage
The whole Conservative Party perhaps?
They took us out of Europe, made us an international laughing stock, trashed our reputation for playing by the rules and alienated allies all to avoid Farage taking a few seats from them...
This conservative does not care about him
On this we must disagree.
On the contrary, they are terrified of their vote splitting to BXP, that will be the end of their majority in any future election.
It doesn't alter the fact I do not care about him, indeed he is persona non grata to me
Understood but I thought we were talking about the Tory Party as a whole
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
Not the right solution, secure the care homes, shut the pubs and bars at 11, enforce no standing drinking and other distancing rules, advise the vulnerable. Police it with advice and understanding then come down hard on repeat offenders. Stop forcing people back to the office, split the Health secs job, covid minister/ health minister to get hospitals moving and have proper focus on defeating and controlling the virus. Solve the end of transition but don’t distract the from the key battle of covid. Some of this is happening in Spain but not enough, response spread over too many autonomous communities, but it’s a pan European problem within a global problem, I see no effort to coordinate response.
What about schools?
This to my mind is the killer punch, and I was discussing it with an old friend and colleague who now works in London earlier.
There’s no realistic or consistent way you can keep offices, pubs etc shut and schools fully open. They would become the focus of the outbreak. They would spread it like wildfire through many communities, particularly medium-sized ones with one or two really large schools (e.g. Weston, Thornbury, Burton, Sunderland).
But - we cannot close them because last time we did it was from every point of view a total fucking catastrophe.
This is why a sane government would go for the local option as far as possible. If Chase High and Cardinal Griffin in Cannock have to close, there is no reason for the Friary or Teddy’s in Lichfield to follow suit, still less John Taylor in Barton.
But we haven’t got a sane government, so they’ll find a way to fuck up again somehow.
Our three kids are in a combined "bubble" of over 500 people. They are crammed 30 to a room, with teachers moving between year groups. At break they are crammed into tiny playgrounds. There is zero social distancing. The idea that the virus can be contained while schools remain open is laughable. There are three options: keep schools open and accept there will be a huge second wave (but try to protect the vulnerable, impossible if granny lives with the grandkids); Shut the schools and accept that a generation of kids (except perhaps in the private sector) are going to have a substandard education; or reconfigure schools to deliver a mixture of high quality distance learning and in person socially distanced education. I would have gone with option 3 personally but it looks like the government never even considered it.
They had six months to do a nightingale on schools, not aware of best practice on this issue though, option three would have made sense.
Thanks for this chart Malmesbury, I think its the most significant one of all.
How reliable are the last couple of days? Or are they not at all reliable until more time has passed?
The numbers come through in batches - they are only updated when PHE has de-conflicted and de-duplicated the test results. It is not uncommon for people to be tested multiple times and in different pillars, settings etc.
So the next update to the positivity rate will be a a couple of days, probably.
It is a seat of two parts. Around 40% of the population lives in the university city of Bangor, which is strongly Labour. The rest is scattered through a variety of small towns and villages, almost all majority Welsh speaking, and is solidly Plaid. The share varies essentially according to turnout.
So it always looks close, but isn’t really. The vote isn’t volatile. The only swing town in the constituency would be Caernarfon.
"can't even find a decent culture to be colonised by"
Ahem. Scotland was conquered and colonised by the English who also, by the by, created the modern world via the industrial revolution, saved the world during the Second World War, abolished slavery in their spare time, and created the greatest empire the world has ever seen, thereby making English the international language, allowing Scots to be (vaguely) understood all over the globe.
if Scotland hadn't been beaten up and enslaved by England, Scots would still be gargling in their weird little Gaelic tongue, and would also be eating lichen.
Irvine Welsh is simply and factually incorrect here. If you are going to be conquered and colonised, you may as well be conquered and colonised by the best: the English.
The whiffs of gently simmering wee coming from you are a tonic, I must say.
Second wave, time to close the pubs and prepare for Lockdown 2.0
Not the right solution, secure the care homes, shut the pubs and bars at 11, enforce no standing drinking and other distancing rules, advise the vulnerable. Police it with advice and understanding then come down hard on repeat offenders. Stop forcing people back to the office, split the Health secs job, covid minister/ health minister to get hospitals moving and have proper focus on defeating and controlling the virus. Solve the end of transition but don’t distract the from the key battle of covid. Some of this is happening in Spain but not enough, response spread over too many autonomous communities, but it’s a pan European problem within a global problem, I see no effort to coordinate response.
What about schools?
This to my mind is the killer punch, and I was discussing it with an old friend and colleague who now works in London earlier.
There’s no realistic or consistent way you can keep offices, pubs etc shut and schools fully open. They would become the focus of the outbreak. They would spread it like wildfire through many communities, particularly medium-sized ones with one or two really large schools (e.g. Weston, Thornbury, Burton, Sunderland).
But - we cannot close them because last time we did it was from every point of view a total fucking catastrophe.
This is why a sane government would go for the local option as far as possible. If Chase High and Cardinal Griffin in Cannock have to close, there is no reason for the Friary or Teddy’s in Lichfield to follow suit, still less John Taylor in Barton.
But we haven’t got a sane government, so they’ll find a way to fuck up again somehow.
Our three kids are in a combined "bubble" of over 500 people. They are crammed 30 to a room, with teachers moving between year groups. At break they are crammed into tiny playgrounds. There is zero social distancing. The idea that the virus can be contained while schools remain open is laughable. There are three options: keep schools open and accept there will be a huge second wave (but try to protect the vulnerable, impossible if granny lives with the grandkids); Shut the schools and accept that a generation of kids (except perhaps in the private sector) are going to have a substandard education; or reconfigure schools to deliver a mixture of high quality distance learning and in person socially distanced education. I would have gone with option 3 personally but it looks like the government never even considered it.
3 is impossible, we've already seen how impossible it is for poorer students to learn when stuck at home.
"can't even find a decent culture to be colonised by"
Ahem. Scotland was conquered and colonised by the English who also, by the by, created the modern world via the industrial revolution, saved the world during the Second World War, abolished slavery in their spare time, and created the greatest empire the world has ever seen, thereby making English the international language, allowing Scots to be (vaguely) understood all over the globe.
if Scotland hadn't been beaten up and enslaved by England, Scots would still be gargling in their weird little Gaelic tongue, and would also be eating lichen.
Irvine Welsh is simply and factually incorrect here. If you are going to be conquered and colonised, you may as well be conquered and colonised by the best: the English.
The whiffs of gently simmering wee coming from you are a tonic, I must say.
WTF does that even mean? Is it meant to be an insult? it's just weird.
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
Beyond "get Brexit done" it is painfully obvious this Government has no clue what to do
"can't even find a decent culture to be colonised by"
Ahem. Scotland was conquered and colonised by the English who also, by the by, created the modern world via the industrial revolution, saved the world during the Second World War, abolished slavery in their spare time, and created the greatest empire the world has ever seen, thereby making English the international language, allowing Scots to be (vaguely) understood all over the globe.
if Scotland hadn't been beaten up and enslaved by England, Scots would still be gargling in their weird little Gaelic tongue, and would also be eating lichen.
Irvine Welsh is simply and factually incorrect here. If you are going to be conquered and colonised, you may as well be conquered and colonised by the best: the English.
The whiffs of gently simmering wee coming from you are a tonic, I must say.
I’m just perturbed that he doesn’t understand there were three different forms of Gaelic plus Scots spoken in Scotland.
"can't even find a decent culture to be colonised by"
Ahem. Scotland was conquered and colonised by the English who also, by the by, created the modern world via the industrial revolution, saved the world during the Second World War, abolished slavery in their spare time, and created the greatest empire the world has ever seen, thereby making English the international language, allowing Scots to be (vaguely) understood all over the globe.
if Scotland hadn't been beaten up and enslaved by England, Scots would still be gargling in their weird little Gaelic tongue, and would also be eating lichen.
Irvine Welsh is simply and factually incorrect here. If you are going to be conquered and colonised, you may as well be conquered and colonised by the best: the English.
The whiffs of gently simmering wee coming from you are a tonic, I must say.
WTF does that even mean? Is it meant to be an insult? it's just weird.
It means he doesn't give a toss about your views Sean, as you aren't serious, this site is just a game for you to waste time on
This government is intellectually and morally bankrupt. It has no solutions, nor ideas, nor any moral leadership. It has no principles and respects no-one. All that's left is a sterile culture war, lies and corruption.
Beyond "get Brexit done" it is painfully obvious this Government has no clue what to do
And then I remembered that this is a cricket forum.
Cricket seems to unite us across politics on this forum
Pity other things more important do not
I think most agree the death penalty must never be reintroduced
I don't. If we are prepared to bomb our enemies, killing innocents, I can be persuaded that we should execute convicted child murderers.
Well your views depend on which personality you adopt that day, eh Sean
i have no idea who "Sean" is, but I am tired of this epicene liberal hypocrisy which tolerates bombing during wars (which kills babies) but shrivels in pearl-clutching horror at hanging the likes of Fred West.
Comments
How reliable are the last couple of days? Or are they not at all reliable until more time has passed?
However I think Biden will likely pick up Arizona too on recent polls and NE02 so that would make it Trump 274 Biden 264 (based too on the fact while Trafalgar were spot on in the Midwest and Pennsylvania in the West they wrongly called Nevada for Trump). That would be the closest margin since the 271 to 266 margin Bush beat Gore by in 2000.
This to my mind is the killer punch, and I was discussing it with an old friend and colleague who now works in London earlier.
There’s no realistic or consistent way you can keep offices, pubs etc shut and schools fully open. They would become the focus of the outbreak. They would spread it like wildfire through many communities, particularly medium-sized ones with one or two really large schools (e.g. Weston, Thornbury, Burton, Sunderland).
But - we cannot close them because last time we did it was from every point of view a total fucking catastrophe.
This is why a sane government would go for the local option as far as possible. If Chase High and Cardinal Griffin in Cannock have to close, there is no reason for the Friary or Teddy’s in Lichfield to follow suit, still less John Taylor in Barton.
But we haven’t got a sane government, so they’ll find a way to fuck up again somehow.
They have to be key.
But I do not see England winning this match unless they get Carey out quickly. As you say, there just isn’t the threat for a proper batsman once Archer and Woakes are finished.
Going to need someone else to take wickets now that Archer and Woakes are finished though.
Time to get a wkt or 2 hopefully
Hope you're well Big G
It does seem the cold season is here just complicating things even further
For Trump, the positive news is that he's narrowed the gap to just five points.
For Biden, the positive news is that his share in unchanged on 51%.
It doesn’t even know how to get Brexit done.
I reckon it'll be more than 54%.
Since then she has probably realised that it is not acceptable behaviour from anybody. And she has turned her back on the Conservative Party, which is obviously the right thing for everybody to do, especially under its present management.
God help us all
Basically, if someone walks in to a school with Covid, it will rip through their bubble.
And another gone
However, two in two is never bad.
They took us out of Europe, made us an international laughing stock, trashed our reputation for playing by the rules and alienated allies all to avoid Farage taking a few seats from them...
Ahem. Scotland was conquered and colonised by the English who also, by the by, created the modern world via the industrial revolution, saved the world during the Second World War, abolished slavery in their spare time, and created the greatest empire the world has ever seen, thereby making English the international language, allowing Scots to be (vaguely) understood all over the globe.
if Scotland hadn't been beaten up and enslaved by England, Scots would still be gargling in their weird little Gaelic tongue, and would also be eating lichen.
Irvine Welsh is simply and factually incorrect here. If you are going to be conquered and colonised, you may as well be conquered and colonised by the best: the English.
There are three options: keep schools open and accept there will be a huge second wave (but try to protect the vulnerable, impossible if granny lives with the grandkids); Shut the schools and accept that a generation of kids (except perhaps in the private sector) are going to have a substandard education; or reconfigure schools to deliver a mixture of high quality distance learning and in person socially distanced education. I would have gone with option 3 personally but it looks like the government never even considered it.
On the contrary, they are terrified of their vote splitting to BXP, that will be the end of their majority in any future election.
And then I remembered that this is a cricket forum.
That can't be very common. So many bowled is really unusual.
Interesting seat
Of course, at the same probability range (i.e sub 10%) you also have Biden winning on a 0-1% lead, based on exactly the same tweet from Nate Silver.
*ducks*
Pity other things more important do not
Is this Paris in spring of 1940? En fete before the Blitz?
So the next update to the positivity rate will be a a couple of days, probably.
So it always looks close, but isn’t really. The vote isn’t volatile. The only swing town in the constituency would be Caernarfon.
I was at senior school up there at the time. I certainly detected a change in atmosphere towards the English afterwards.
Hope you're well Ian
If you get it wrong, the person is dead. Then what?