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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Winter is coming: the reckoning

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    edited September 2020
    nichomar said:

    alex_ said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-54130862

    60mph on the motorway? I thought the Government wanted a 80mph speed limit! This wont play well in the red wall.

    How does increased journey times, by corallary more cars on the roads and more traffic jams, lead to reductions in pollution?
    Slower speed does not necessarily lead to lower throughput, all to do with queuing theory, that’s why there are variable speed limits on busy motorways.
    Normally the reverse, since the gaps between vehicles increase by more than pro rata to the traffic speed. It’s the same as the standing side of the escalator carrying more passengers despite the walking side’s passengers moving more quickly. However that only benefits when the roads are actually busy.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,630
    edited September 2020

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-54130862

    60mph on the motorway? I thought the Government wanted a 80mph speed limit! This wont play well in the red wall.

    Presumably I can continue at speed in my electric Niro? Highly recommended BTW.
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    The new trailer for the return of Eastenders to our screens has taken a dark turn.

    https://twitter.com/khayerc/status/1304524039524880385?s=20

    It's all part and parcel of living in a big city though isn't it?
    I've only been called a c*nt by some random stranger once in London. It was in Woolwich though, which is the kind of place you'd expect it to happen, not in central London. I follow Khan on FB and the sheer volume of racist and Islamophobic abuse that gets hurled at him is quite astonishing.
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    NEW THREAD

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited September 2020
    Another 3500 positive day. And all other indicators are on the rise,

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1304802018972897280?s=20

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    Scott_xP said:
    This Government is certainly doing things I don't agree with. But to claim it is illegitimate is just ridiculous. It was fairly elected under the rules of this country - the same rules that have governed elections for a century - and there have been no claims that there was any election rigging involved.

    This is just another Remoaner twat confusing legitimacy with his own personal likes and dislikes.
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    Scott_xP said:
    This Government is certainly doing things I don't agree with. But to claim it is illegitimate is just ridiculous. It was fairly elected under the rules of this country - the same rules that have governed elections for a century - and there have been no claims that there was any election rigging involved.

    This is just another Remoaner twat confusing legitimacy with his own personal likes and dislikes.
    When do you plan to object to govt over-reach? As they drag you away for some minor infringement?
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    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Barnesian said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great piece but I disagree about the chances of No Deal. I think it remains unlikely. I think the politics steers towards a deal that prolongs close alignment beyond 1st Jan 2021.

    However let’s go with the hardly outrageous proposition that I am wrong and David Herdson is right. In which case there’s a problem. Which is that No Deal Brexit has no domestic mandate. I don’t mean it doesn’t respect the Referendum result. We voted to leave and it is leaving. It’s leaving good and proper. No issue there.

    But the most recent national democratic event was the GE in December 2019. Exactly 8 months ago, that was, and it gave Boris Johnson a thumping “Oh yes please!” to the question he asked the British people, which was – “Do you want to get Brexit done and finished on the basis of my oven ready deal with the EU?”

    He knew he could not win an election on a No Deal platform. He knew if he’d asked the question - “Do you want to crash out of the EU onto basic WTO terms and get into a serious wrangle about the Irish border with the EU?” – the answer would have been “Are you kidding? Get a grip.”

    So, Ok, having won power by nefarious means – by lying to the EU and to the public - he can now use it to do what he wants, which includes pretending that this abuse of the democratic process did not happen. But if he does it will be a bit off and that’s putting it mildly.

    The referendum mandate was to leave the EU. That was delivered in full on 31st January. The referendum is literally over and complete. What instead we should be talking about when it comes to a mandate is what we do now that we have successfully left the EU.

    The only mandate is for Boris Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement. The one he is now ripping up. So when we get into a Commons vs Lords battle the Lords will be able to put the Parliament Acts and conventions into reverse - it is they who are acting to defend the democratic mandate of a government trying to reverse it.
    Oh geez not this again.

    The Tories won a landslide less than a year ago, they have the mandate to do what they want until the next election.

    This whole "There's no mandate" nonsense every time anything has changed has got to stop.
    You say this because you agree with what they are doing rather than out of principle. Nevertheless your opening sentence is spot on if you change just one word. Replace 'mandate' with 'power'.
    By this logic there is never going to be a "mandate" for anyone in power to ever react to any event that might happen after an election has taken place. A new election will be required each time.

    It's nonsense.
    I'm not making a general point, it's a specific one. The GE was won just yesterday on the basis of the oven ready deal. It would not have been won on a no deal platform. This was THE issue of the election. So the winning party do not have a mandate to tear up the deal and do no deal instead. To pretend they do, that is the nonsense.
    Lol nonsense, he won on a platform of getting Brexit done.

    I heard absolutely no one mention the "oven ready deal" during the election at all.

    Do you really think Corbyn would have won the election if it wasn't for the genius "oven ready deal" campaign that the Tories apparently ran?
    Please focus rather than 'loling'.

    Your question. What would the GE result have been if the Con position was to leave the EU with No Deal?

    Hung Parliament. Lab + LD + SNP > Con + DUP.
    It's hilarious how the 'genius' oven-ready deal has now become a historical embarrassment in a matter of days.
    Yep. The ironies abound. Like, Mrs May said a border in the Irish Sea was "something no UK Prime Minister could ever accept". And it turns out she was right. But the trick she missed - due to possession of that inconvenient character trait called integrity - was to pretend to accept it in order to get the deal needed as the platform for an election win, and then with power duly secured to unaccept it again!
    I think Johnson is hoist with his own petard.
    In the event of a No Deal, EU exporters can export to the RoI, then up to NI with no checks, then across to rUK with no checks. No problem.
    And one would almost love to see it. But then of course there would be a gaping hole the other way too - into the SM - if there is no Irish border. Total mess if it happens. Which I really really doubt. Deal coming, I think.
    wishful thinking
    We will see. Betting odds are 1/2 No Deal, 6/5 Deal.
    So based on odds it is No Deal, that is what they want as it opens the door for more aid for their chums , having milked Covid they will be rubbing their hands at Brexit spoils.
    A Brexit deal won't stop them doing all that, Malcolm. :smile:
    Very true
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    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something for all the PB family. Rimsting is next to Wank and below Titz, fyi.

    https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1304495936769601536?s=20

    I drove right past Wank yesterday. Just up the road from where Steve McQueen tried to jump that fence
    I was a bit taken aback by there being two Twatts in Scotland, and apparently none in England.
    One in Orkney and one in Shetland I believe.
    I hesitate to remind folk that Orkney and Shetland are separate constituencies for Holyrood, each with their own LD MSP.
    Carmichael is one of them , who is the other one.
    Liam Macarthur for Orkney, Beatrice Wishart for Shetland are MSP's. According to Wikipedia. Both LD's.
    OKC that is 3 twat's then
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