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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Winter is coming: the reckoning

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 12 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Winter is coming: the reckoning

Time was when Conservative governments stood for law and order; they didn’t wantonly break law themselves. Time was when Conservative governments stood for the Union; they didn’t sign up to first sell out Ulster unionists and then U-turn and enrage nationalists (which is at least even-handed). Time was when Conservative governments valued a stable economy, sound money and a low deficit. Time was when Conservative governments were pro-business and anti-red tape. Time was when Conservative governments simply aimed to deliver competent government, could state what their objectives were and explain to the public how their policies would deliver on them and why any initial pain was temporary, necessary and would ultimately be worthwhile. That time is not now.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 6,744
    Tory MPs have a new Whatsapp group entitled, “What the f*** is going on?”.

    After a week in which the government has promised to break the law while dramatically limiting the nation’s freedom by statute, it’s a fair question.

    Downing Street has found itself fighting its backbenchers on two fronts, Brexit and Covid, in recent days. Even Boris Johnson’s efforts to rally Conservative MPs on a Zoom call last night flirted with farce after a break in the signal that left them staring into the void.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tories-beg-for-answers-as-boris-johnson-s-zoom-rally-turns-farcical-8b6dqrzcm
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,309
    Can I point out that "torrid" means "extremely hot?" I know global warming hasn't gone away, but the illustration suggests that is not the point.

    15 months feels like a very long time in politics ATM. Johnson 5/2 to go in 2021 looks a better bet to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,520
    Nigelb said:
    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,520

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    I mean it was literally ten seconds of his time to pass it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,520
    edited September 12
    And the original sponsor of the bill was an independent, caucusing with the Democrats, with eight of the nine co-sponsors also from the Democrats. This isn't the government wasting time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,309

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    Things are complicated, as always. Since 2015 the Senate has resolved each year that 25 Sept that year shall be nld, pending the passing of an Act setting the date for all time

    https://lobsteranywhere.com/holidays-celebrations/national-lobster-day/

    This is obv extremely silly, but so is the point being made about it. It is a 10 minute procedure.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,520
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    Things are complicated, as always. Since 2015 the Senate has resolved each year that 25 Sept that year shall be nld, pending the passing of an Act setting the date for all time

    https://lobsteranywhere.com/holidays-celebrations/national-lobster-day/

    This is obv extremely silly, but so is the point being made about it. It is a 10 minute procedure.
    Exactly. It'd be like someone complaining that the UK government is wasting time by issuing an order in council that Aug 31 was a bank holiday.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,309
    The lobsters would probably be fine with 25 September *not* being National Lobster Day.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    edited September 12
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    Things are complicated, as always. Since 2015 the Senate has resolved each year that 25 Sept that year shall be nld, pending the passing of an Act setting the date for all time

    https://lobsteranywhere.com/holidays-celebrations/national-lobster-day/

    This is obv extremely silly, but so is the point being made about it. It is a 10 minute procedure.
    No, it's a stupid thing to do, and it's a good idea to say when government people are doing stupid things, and laugh at them, as this encourages them to do less stupid things.

    This is the correct response even when the laughing takes longer than the stupid thing.

    The fact that they do this stupid thing every year doesn't make it less stupid, quite the opposite.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 48,520

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    Things are complicated, as always. Since 2015 the Senate has resolved each year that 25 Sept that year shall be nld, pending the passing of an Act setting the date for all time

    https://lobsteranywhere.com/holidays-celebrations/national-lobster-day/

    This is obv extremely silly, but so is the point being made about it. It is a 10 minute procedure.
    No, it's a stupid thing to do, and it's a good idea to say when government people are doing stupid things, and laugh at them, as this encourages them to do less stupid things.

    This is the correct response even when the laughing takes longer than the stupid thing.

    The fact that they do this stupid thing every year doesn't make it less stupid, quite the opposite.
    Why is it a stupid thing to do? It probably brings in a lot of money for that industry.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    edited September 12
    On topic, IDK, he's bollocksing everything up and his health is clearly bad, but the general principle is that you should bet on things not happening, because things don't usually happen, and when things do happen, they're usually not the things you expect.

    Also to be more optimistic about the outlook:

    1) We mostly know how to handle the rona nowadays, it's just a question of how far you're prepared to turn various dials, and even if the government just sits there fiddling with itself people mostly turn the dials spontaneously as the risk increases, because they don't want to die.

    2) The moonshot idea doesn't strike me as obviously bonkers, and if it works the people involved will look very good. It costs lot of money, but most of it is probably only paid if it's actually going ahead and producing tests, and if it's going ahead and producing tests then it's also saving an ungodly amount of money by solving the virus problem.

    3) I don't think a deal is obviously off; The EU's whole thing is to cut deals to defuse crises or postpone them until they go away of their own accord and they do this even when they find the situation quite exasperating. The only reason to think there won't be one is because the British Prime Minister is acting like a total and utter fucking maniac, but acting like a total and utter fucking maniac seemed to be the technique he used last time to prepare his fellow maniacs for a deal. And if we're describing a situation where the PM wrecks the country and loses his job, that seems like the kind of thing the PM would want to avoid.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,309
    edited September 12

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    Things are complicated, as always. Since 2015 the Senate has resolved each year that 25 Sept that year shall be nld, pending the passing of an Act setting the date for all time

    https://lobsteranywhere.com/holidays-celebrations/national-lobster-day/

    This is obv extremely silly, but so is the point being made about it. It is a 10 minute procedure.
    No, it's a stupid thing to do, and it's a good idea to say when government people are doing stupid things, and laugh at them, as this encourages them to do less stupid things.

    This is the correct response even when the laughing takes longer than the stupid thing.

    The fact that they do this stupid thing every year doesn't make it less stupid, quite the opposite.
    In Maine alone the annual lobster catch is worth $0.48bn

    https://www.gazettenet.com/Maine-s-lobster-catch-value-grew-last-year-officials-say-23855439

    I am guessing that someone in Maine thinks that moving Lobster Day each year benefits the industry enough to be worth the effort, and his senator thinks so too. Seems reasonable to me. Lobster fishing is incredibly hard, dangerous and poorly paid work btw, this is not - I would imagine - a move purely for the benefit of the fatcats at Big Lobster.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 6,744

    And if we're describing a situation where the PM wrecks the country and loses his job, that seems like the kind of thing the PM would want to avoid.

    But BoZo has lost his job multiple times for screwing up

    He doesn't see it as am impediment to future success
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    Things are complicated, as always. Since 2015 the Senate has resolved each year that 25 Sept that year shall be nld, pending the passing of an Act setting the date for all time

    https://lobsteranywhere.com/holidays-celebrations/national-lobster-day/

    This is obv extremely silly, but so is the point being made about it. It is a 10 minute procedure.
    No, it's a stupid thing to do, and it's a good idea to say when government people are doing stupid things, and laugh at them, as this encourages them to do less stupid things.

    This is the correct response even when the laughing takes longer than the stupid thing.

    The fact that they do this stupid thing every year doesn't make it less stupid, quite the opposite.
    Why is it a stupid thing to do? It probably brings in a lot of money for that industry.
    Really? But presumably only at the expense of the crab industry.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,094
    edited September 12
    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,094
    Scott_xP said:

    And if we're describing a situation where the PM wrecks the country and loses his job, that seems like the kind of thing the PM would want to avoid.

    But BoZo has lost his job multiple times for screwing up

    He doesn't see it as am impediment to future success
    Promoting people who have f**ked up is our national disease.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,094
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    Things are complicated, as always. Since 2015 the Senate has resolved each year that 25 Sept that year shall be nld, pending the passing of an Act setting the date for all time

    https://lobsteranywhere.com/holidays-celebrations/national-lobster-day/

    This is obv extremely silly, but so is the point being made about it. It is a 10 minute procedure.
    No, it's a stupid thing to do, and it's a good idea to say when government people are doing stupid things, and laugh at them, as this encourages them to do less stupid things.

    This is the correct response even when the laughing takes longer than the stupid thing.

    The fact that they do this stupid thing every year doesn't make it less stupid, quite the opposite.
    Why is it a stupid thing to do? It probably brings in a lot of money for that industry.
    Really? But presumably only at the expense of the crab industry.
    Generally it’s the same people.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,387
    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
  • Question - all these new places that voted Tory to deliver Boris's Brexit Bill. Will they continue to support the Tories when said Brexit bill - voted for by them in good faith - has gone in the bin, and none of the economic benefits they hoped to gain arrive as Crash Brexit throws them to the wolves?

    Of course we then know that the HYUFDian wing of the party will then start to blame the voters for being workshy or feckless or all the usual bollocks. In the old days that was Labour voters they were besmirching. Now its Tory voters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,428
    edited September 12
    That is a very Stark headline, @TSE.

    But it’s not nearly as stark as the article.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,428
    FPT, this hotline for reporting on your neighbours is a very courageous decision.

    Is there a market on what percentage of the first hundred thousand calls will be asking when Cummings and Jenrick are to be prosecuted?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,971
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: no tip but some brief discussion of how the circuit and tyres are looking which might be of interest:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/09/tuscany-pre-qualifying-2020.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,690
    Reading the comments of Ms Cyclefree, Dr Foxy and Mr B2, I am moved, and not for the first time, to wonder why we can't have an 'Agree' button.
    I 'agree' with what they have posted, but I don't 'like' the prospects they envisage for me and most* of mine.

    * Some of 'mine' have left the UK so may well be better off than those who are staying here.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,428

    Reading the comments of Ms Cyclefree, Dr Foxy and Mr B2, I am moved, and not for the first time, to wonder why we can't have an 'Agree' button.
    I 'agree' with what they have posted, but I don't 'like' the prospects they envisage for me and most* of mine.

    * Some of 'mine' have left the UK so may well be better off than those who are staying here.

    Could have been worse. At least you don’t have the ‘dislike’ button for posts that tell you terrible things that you really, really don’t want to be true.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 744
    I am reliably told that November is still a likely date for first Ox-AZN vaccines in British arms. Front line workers only. Gradual roll out to other groups thereafter.

    The puzzling thing to me is the government’s messaging. It’s all wrong. You might convince even me that the current wave of authoritarianism is ok if you are defining a near term end date with high probability.

    Instead they talk about spending £100bn a year on testing as though the crisis is here forever. They speak only vaguely in highly caveated terms about a vaccine. They keep everyone in a state of constant fear about the “second wave”. An emotive and ill defined term that has entered our lexicon so suddenly that almost no one stops to think what it actually means.

    The government have to get better at spelling out the temporary nature of this event, that without doubt we’ve already passed through the abyss and the brighter tomorrow is right around the corner.

    Boris Johnson might not have died in that hospital room but the optimistic libertarian in him surely did.

    As for the No Deal Brexit, it’s hard to see through the layers of bluff on both sides to see what’s really happening. Either way at this moment it looks less likely than evens he’ll fight the next election.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,690
    ydoethur said:

    Reading the comments of Ms Cyclefree, Dr Foxy and Mr B2, I am moved, and not for the first time, to wonder why we can't have an 'Agree' button.
    I 'agree' with what they have posted, but I don't 'like' the prospects they envisage for me and most* of mine.

    * Some of 'mine' have left the UK so may well be better off than those who are staying here.

    Could have been worse. At least you don’t have the ‘dislike’ button for posts that tell you terrible things that you really, really don’t want to be true.

    LOL. That I have 'Liked'!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,690
    Apparently, according to someone who has posted on my FB page, the Indie is say that Johnson is facing four rebellions, including one from himself!
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 220
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    The government could become very unpopular soon. It is easy to see that a second wave of the virus might be coming and it could lead to a second lockdown later this year.

    If you add to that a no-deal Brexit in January, the resulting disruption and job losses, and the end of the furlough scheme, you have the ingredients for a financial and economic crisis.

    There is a good chance that people will blame the government for all this.
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 16,371
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?
    McConnell has failed to bring to a vote a series of bills relating to the pandemic and the economy that have passed the House.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,282
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes, I think Johnson has always been ideologically sympathetic to No Deal Brexit. To think that just because he is willing to say and do whatever helps his ambitions means that he is somehow miraculously free of any ideological leanings is a big mistake. He has an ideology and it is a very ugly one.

    For many leading Brexiters, and many of the big Tory donors the WHOLE POINT of Brexit is scrapping things like environmental regulations, workers' rights, anything that gets in the way of making a fast buck in the most destructive way. Johnson is absolutely with these guys.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,690

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 6,744
    For some people it will always be too soon to call this one, but are we near the point at which we can conclude that Dominic Cummings is the Samantha Brick of statecraft? I wonder if you were ever familiar with Samantha. A few years ago, this previously obscure journalist torched the internet with a Daily Mail article so provocatively ludicrous that it would ultimately land her a slot on Celebrity Big Brother. As the headline put it: “There are downsides to looking this pretty: why women hate me for being beautiful”. The accompanying picture, of a perfectly ordinary 41-year-old woman, marked Samantha out as something of a Florence Foster Jenkins type: convinced of truly exceptional gifts where merely a lack of them lay.

    And so with Cummings’ record in government. He seems to suffer from a sort of inverse dysmorphia. Instead of looking in the mirror and seeing the reality of the latest clusterfuck staring back, he sees a Steve Jobs or a Warren Buffett, or even a guy who remembers that the label is meant to go on the inside of his pants. As recently as January, Cummings was claiming there are “trillion dollar bills lying on the street” if you just knew how to run government properly. Has he found one yet? I bet you a trillion dollars he never does.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/11/tories-trick-cock-up-dominic-cummings
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 6,744

    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?

    The rumour is they are (fairly) safely shacked up with another man in Kensington
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,690
    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes, I think Johnson has always been ideologically sympathetic to No Deal Brexit. To think that just because he is willing to say and do whatever helps his ambitions means that he is somehow miraculously free of any ideological leanings is a big mistake. He has an ideology and it is a very ugly one.

    For many leading Brexiters, and many of the big Tory donors the WHOLE POINT of Brexit is scrapping things like environmental regulations, workers' rights, anything that gets in the way of making a fast buck in the most destructive way. Johnson is absolutely with these guys.
    He will be while they keep funding him.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,659
    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    I attended a public meeting held by my local MP, a leading ERG member and now Attorney General, Suella Braverman. In it she said that she was 'not afraid' of a No Deal Brexit but the impression given was that she would welcome it.
    I think that this is what the government is aiming for.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,240

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?
    Answering that probably breaches a super injection
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    I think a major political problem for the Government is that a large proportion of their voters thought that the Withdrawal Agreement was THE deal. Which delivered Brexit in February since when everything has been going smoothly.

    If we then have empty shelves/big price rises from January accompanied by headlines that this is linked to “NO Deal” then they are going to wonder what the f*ck is going on. Amongst all the background noise they will have gathered that the Government ITSELF (ie. NOT the EU) broke the law to effectively collapse the WA (/deal). And admitted that they broke the law. For something abstract about Northern Ireland.

    In this situation it’s going to be quite difficult for the Government to blame what’s happening on anything other than themselves.
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?
    One hopes so. But Chequers isn't London, and is Carrie really the one to say "Now is the time to walk away from your lifelong dream, because it's destroying you"?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,960
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    He’s the classic public school bully. Utterly self entitled. Other people are simply lesser creatures, occasionally helpful on Boris’ personal path to glory, but always disposable.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,240

    Question - all these new places that voted Tory to deliver Boris's Brexit Bill. Will they continue to support the Tories when said Brexit bill - voted for by them in good faith - has gone in the bin, and none of the economic benefits they hoped to gain arrive as Crash Brexit throws them to the wolves?

    Of course we then know that the HYUFDian wing of the party will then start to blame the voters for being workshy or feckless or all the usual bollocks. In the old days that was Labour voters they were besmirching. Now its Tory voters.

    In a lot of places Labour is suffering from the consequences of local Labour Governments not having money to spend due to Tory imposed austerity.

    The Tory MPs will be judged on pork belly results - create jobs and make things look better and they will be re-elected. Fail and they will be voted out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,690
    Scott_xP said:

    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?

    The rumour is they are (fairly) safely shacked up with another man in Kensington
    Hmmm. I wondered why there hadn't been the occasional photo shoot.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,240

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?
    One hopes so. But Chequers isn't London, and is Carrie really the one to say "Now is the time to walk away from your lifelong dream, because it's destroying you"?
    She isn't (plus I actually don't think she is around) and I don't think any such person exists.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,082
    IshmaelZ said:

    The lobsters would probably be fine with 25 September *not* being National Lobster Day.

    Presumably more of them are et on NLD?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,108
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?
    Answering that probably breaches a super injection
    I like the idea of a super injection...

    But no one is getting out the violins for Johnson and more.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,082
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:


    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?

    I think they're hoping the government will prioritize things a bit better, no disrespect to the lobsters.
    Things are complicated, as always. Since 2015 the Senate has resolved each year that 25 Sept that year shall be nld, pending the passing of an Act setting the date for all time

    https://lobsteranywhere.com/holidays-celebrations/national-lobster-day/

    This is obv extremely silly, but so is the point being made about it. It is a 10 minute procedure.
    No, it's a stupid thing to do, and it's a good idea to say when government people are doing stupid things, and laugh at them, as this encourages them to do less stupid things.

    This is the correct response even when the laughing takes longer than the stupid thing.

    The fact that they do this stupid thing every year doesn't make it less stupid, quite the opposite.
    In Maine alone the annual lobster catch is worth $0.48bn

    https://www.gazettenet.com/Maine-s-lobster-catch-value-grew-last-year-officials-say-23855439

    I am guessing that someone in Maine thinks that moving Lobster Day each year benefits the industry enough to be worth the effort, and his senator thinks so too. Seems reasonable to me. Lobster fishing is incredibly hard, dangerous and poorly paid work btw, this is not - I would imagine - a move purely for the benefit of the fatcats at Big Lobster.
    I happen to know that the fatcats sr Big Lobster are decidedly thinner after the performance of their restaurants during the crisis
  • eekeek Posts: 9,240
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?
    Answering that probably breaches a super injection
    I like the idea of a super injection...

    But no one is getting out the violins for Johnson and more.
    Yet while the Internet is awash with variations of the story no paper is going near it. Not even in their usual lot of photos about x heavy hint approach - mind you the other person involved is rather lawyer trigger happy so that may not be that surprising
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,094

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    I attended a public meeting held by my local MP, a leading ERG member and now Attorney General, Suella Braverman. In it she said that she was 'not afraid' of a No Deal Brexit but the impression given was that she would welcome it.
    I think that this is what the government is aiming for.
    Taking Big_G and millions of voters like him for total mugs
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,254
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    He’s the classic public school bully. Utterly self entitled. Other people are simply lesser creatures, occasionally helpful on Boris’ personal path to glory, but always disposable.
    How are state school bullies any better than public ones?

    And don't all political leaders, or certainly most of them, treat other people as disposable?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,082
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:
    Are they suggesting all normal government actions cease until the pandemic is over?
    McConnell has failed to bring to a vote a series of bills relating to the pandemic and the economy that have passed the House.
    Decided not to is probably more accurate than “failed”
  • Well this is a litany of doom that way over states the danger from Covid (like everywhere else) but it does beg a very good question, viz what are the conservative party for?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,198
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    The man is clearly a sociopath, and sociopathic leadership seldom ends well.

    Johnson's utterings in his fanzine today are a dangerous fiction. To play fast and loose with Northern Ireland politics is either malign or stupid. Johnson's behaviour through the pandemic suggests he is probably both. An expensive education does not guarantee common sense.

    I would avoid the character trait comparison with Hitler, but it seems we have our very own Idi Amin in the making. So not even a world beating totalitarian, more the pound shop version.
  • eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?
    One hopes so. But Chequers isn't London, and is Carrie really the one to say "Now is the time to walk away from your lifelong dream, because it's destroying you"?
    She isn't (plus I actually don't think she is around) and I don't think any such person exists.
    Hard to see how such a person could exist- anyone who tried to temper his ambition would be kicked out of bed faster than they would for eating crisps.

    And yes, politicians- successful ones, anyway- tend to run on ambition. But pure untempered ambition is BoJo's USP.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,240

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    The man is clearly a sociopath, and sociopathic leadership seldom ends well.

    Johnson's utterings in his fanzine today are a dangerous fiction. To play fast and loose with Northern Ireland politics is either malign or stupid. Johnson's behaviour through the pandemic suggests he is probably both. An expensive education does not guarantee common sense.

    I would avoid the character trait comparison with Hitler, but it seems we have our very own Idi Amin in the making. So not even a world beating totalitarian, more the pound shop version.
    An expensive education can generate uncontrollable arrogance - and I believe that is half of Boris's problem.

    The other half is that he wants to be loved but people eventually tire of him.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 41,922
    It is possible for both of these things to be true:

    - That Johnson is a lazy, dissembling buffoon, not remotely acquainted with the details, let alone on top of them.
    - That the EU has "weaponised" Ulster as a way of controlling the UK by "making stuff up" about the Belfast Agreement and "protecting the integrity of the single market" of a border which accounts for ±0.2% of the EU's trade in goods (and would rapidly become obvious if this were to increase markedly).

    It's a mystery why Remainer Brandon Lewis used such incendiary language in the HoC......
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,291
    You can get 8.8 on betfair on Boris ceasing to be leader in 2022.
    I'm not that convinced personally, I agree with David we are in a bad place, but I don't buy this wonderful Tory party of 'yore stuff. Boris to me seems very in keeping with a strand of Conservative tradition.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,960
    Fishing said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    A good lead; the only bit of evidence that jars with its thesis is a few of the ERG claiming they’d only supported the WA on a promise that it would be junked later.

    Maybe they were just trying to claim this chaos had been the plan all along, and falling for that human tendency to claim to be on the inside even when you’re not? Or, if true, there is more to this story than simply Johnson not doing his homework?

    It’s a very good header, thank you David.

    There is some evidence that some MPs believed or were told that the WA could be changed later and voted for it on that basis without really understanding what it said and its implications. Utterly cynical and contemptuous of voters.

    But that does not help matters now.

    I see very few grounds for optimism.
    Johnsons remarks to the Ulster Unionists in the GE campaign that they could chuck the paperwork in the bin shows that even before his "Oven Ready Deal" passed, he wasn't going to implement it. The lack of preparation and recruitment to Irish Sea customs confirms it.

    I don't think there was ever any intention to honour it. I cannot see the point in announcing it now though, it could have been done after the Trade talks finished.

    I think that forcing the EU to apply customs on a land border was the plan all along, and the WDA was just a way to postpone No Deal for a year, and more importantly an election. An explicit No Deal policy in Autumn 2019 would have been unlikely to have resulted in a Tory majority, and quite possibly would have been the end of Brexit too.

    The WDA achieved what it was intended to, to get a Tory majority, and can be discarded now. Johnson never thinks of the consequences of his seducing, and Cummings cares nothing for the Conservative party. He just wants 4 years of revolutionary power so that he can smash as many British institutions as he can. He wants Humpty Dumpty to have a great fall.
    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    He’s the classic public school bully. Utterly self entitled. Other people are simply lesser creatures, occasionally helpful on Boris’ personal path to glory, but always disposable.
    How are state school bullies any better than public ones?

    And don't all political leaders, or certainly most of them, treat other people as disposable?
    The public school system provides a superficial veneer of charm and polish on top of weapons grade confidence that for bullies is almost always is accompanied by arrogance and entitlement. Boris is one of those.

    Your commonal garden bully is less smooth and deceptive.

    Political leaders in my experience are generally not as you describe. Well the successful ones aren’t.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,387
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes - that thesis is more credible than the one set out in the lead, and fits with three known character traits of Johnson - telling different things to different people depending on what they want to hear - saying whatever is needed to get out of the situation in front of him without regard to the future - and not feeling in the slightest bound by anything he has done or said before.
    I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times.
    There's a flip side to that. It's not obvious that anyone actually cares for Boris, as he visibly descends into his own private hell. There's no Dennis at No 10, who can take him aside at the end of the day because they have known and loved him for decades.

    If he needed someone to say "time to go, love", who would it be?
    Do we assume Carrie iand the baby are (fairly) safely in Chequers?
    Answering that probably breaches a super injection
    Brilliant typo!

    We can pretty easily work out what has happened.
  • Good strong piece, David, and hard to disagree with any of it. Frankly I find it hard to see where it all ends - not in a good place, that's for sure.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,146
    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 6,744

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    I think that depends entirely on the manner in which BoZo is defenestrated
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,769

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    Nonsense. They’d be very happy to start talking to a SKS-led Labour government.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,493
    fox327 said:



    If you add to that a no-deal Brexit in January, the resulting disruption and job losses, and the end of the furlough scheme, you have the ingredients for a financial and economic crisis.

    .

    No deal is politically very good for Johnson and probably even necessary to provide obfuscation of his Covid 29 fucktastrophe. Everything can be blamed on the EU; one of the few things at which he excels.

    You can already see how he is fingering the Red Wall morons and getting them wet for it with phrases straight out of the Putin script like "foreign powers".
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,769
    edited September 12
    It’s been said before but can’t be stressed enough: no deal is not an end state. There will eventually be agreements; it’s just that we’ll be negotiating them through necessity and from a far weaker position.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,387

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    Nonsense. They’d be very happy to start talking to a SKS-led Labour government.
    I’m not sure they would. Why go through this endless psychodrama with Britain again?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    Nonsense. They’d be very happy to start talking to a SKS-led Labour government.
    A SKS-led Labour Government wouldn't be interested. Their focus would probably be on getting into EFTA/EEA and keeping out of all the political aspects.

    The extreme Brexit elements would not be happy with the consequential influence of ECJ over UK trade, but you're not going to build an election winning anti-EU coalition on the back of plans to not rejoin the EU.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,769
    alex_ said:

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    Nonsense. They’d be very happy to start talking to a SKS-led Labour government.
    A SKS-led Labour Government wouldn't be interested. Their focus would probably be on getting into EFTA/EEA and keeping out of all the political aspects.

    The extreme Brexit elements would not be happy with the consequential influence of ECJ over UK trade, but you're not going to build an election winning anti-EU coalition on the back of plans to not rejoin the EU.
    Yes, I agree with that. All I’m saying is there will be a sane relationship agreed once we have a sane government.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,240

    It’s been said before but can’t be stressed enough: no deal is not an end state. There will eventually be agreements; it’s just that we’ll be negotiating them through necessity and from a far weaker position.

    There will only be deals provided Boris hasn't permanently poisoned and destroyed the well - and he is going about things in ways that are going to at least seriously damage said well.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,184

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    That's a win then.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    Dura_Ace said:

    fox327 said:



    If you add to that a no-deal Brexit in January, the resulting disruption and job losses, and the end of the furlough scheme, you have the ingredients for a financial and economic crisis.

    .

    No deal is politically very good for Johnson and probably even necessary to provide obfuscation of his Covid 29 fucktastrophe. Everything can be blamed on the EU; one of the few things at which he excels.

    You can already see how he is fingering the Red Wall morons and getting them wet for it with phrases straight out of the Putin script like "foreign powers".
    As i said below i don't think this is true, for the simple reason that a huge chunk of voters think that the Withdrawal Agreement was "the deal". We signed the WA, Brexit happened, there have been no economic consequences as a result. Johnson will struggle to convince that the EU is to blame for no deal from Jan 1st and resulting consequences when they have admitted that they are the ones that will have triggered it (by breaking the law).

    "We had a deal, we ditched it ("for Northern Ireland"*)". What's that you say? Brexit WASN'T sorted on February 1st last year?

    (*also their claim that they had to break the law to protect the GFA won't look good if Northern Ireland explodes as a result...)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302
    moonshine said:

    I am reliably told that November is still a likely date for first Ox-AZN vaccines in British arms. Front line workers only. Gradual roll out to other groups thereafter.

    The puzzling thing to me is the government’s messaging. It’s all wrong. You might convince even me that the current wave of authoritarianism is ok if you are defining a near term end date with high probability.

    Instead they talk about spending £100bn a year on testing as though the crisis is here forever. They speak only vaguely in highly caveated terms about a vaccine. They keep everyone in a state of constant fear about the “second wave”. An emotive and ill defined term that has entered our lexicon so suddenly that almost no one stops to think what it actually means.

    The government have to get better at spelling out the temporary nature of this event, that without doubt we’ve already passed through the abyss and the brighter tomorrow is right around the corner.

    Boris Johnson might not have died in that hospital room but the optimistic libertarian in him surely did.

    As for the No Deal Brexit, it’s hard to see through the layers of bluff on both sides to see what’s really happening. Either way at this moment it looks less likely than evens he’ll fight the next election.

    Excellent post, especially the middle two paragraphs. We`re on the same page, Moonshine.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    It is worth noting in the Daily Mail polling that whilst it is easy to identify the Remain element in the anti Government responses on the issue of "breaking the law" etc, what should concern the Government far more is the large number of "don't knows". Suggesting that even many of the Brexiters are at least uncertain (if not uncomfortable) about what is happening and are holding fire as to what happens next. If the result is a disastrous no deal (as opposed to a non disastrous one), then there is a big red light flashing about whose fault it was...
  • One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    That may be true. Thankfully that doesn't apply to us.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,198
    eek said:

    Question - all these new places that voted Tory to deliver Boris's Brexit Bill. Will they continue to support the Tories when said Brexit bill - voted for by them in good faith - has gone in the bin, and none of the economic benefits they hoped to gain arrive as Crash Brexit throws them to the wolves?

    Of course we then know that the HYUFDian wing of the party will then start to blame the voters for being workshy or feckless or all the usual bollocks. In the old days that was Labour voters they were besmirching. Now its Tory voters.

    In a lot of places Labour is suffering from the consequences of local Labour Governments not having money to spend due to Tory imposed austerity.

    The Tory MPs will be judged on pork belly results - create jobs and make things look better and they will be re-elected. Fail and they will be voted out.
    I am not sure that is true. Johnson's Tory party have discovered xenophobic scapegoating is the elixir of life. Johnson has tried it again in today's Telegraph. 'The EU is destroying your Union' dog whistle is being blown like fury by Johnson.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,960
    Gove in full weasel mode on R4. Quite how anyone with a functioning brain cell buys this crap is beyond me.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    MarqueeMark: what`s your view of Boris at the moment? I`m taken aback by some of the posts this morning. Especially this from Foxy:

    "I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times."

    I`m no Boris fan but I`d never write something like that.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,279
    Stocky said:

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    MarqueeMark: what`s your view of Boris at the moment? I`m taken aback by some of the posts this morning. Especially this from Foxy:

    "I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times."

    I`m no Boris fan but I`d never write something like that.
    There is a difference between "not caring" in principle and "not caring" in practice. By that i mean that plenty of people claim in principle to care about things, and maybe even do (in the sense that if bad things happen to things they care about they get upset), but it's very much a passive thing. In practice they will not raise a finger to prevent those bad things happening in the first place.
  • Well I don't know about anyone else but I hadn't heard the rumour we aren't talking about and I'm definitely not quite amused by it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 6,706
    edited September 12
    Stocky said:

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    MarqueeMark: what`s your view of Boris at the moment? I`m taken aback by some of the posts this morning. Especially this from Foxy:

    "I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times."

    I`m no Boris fan but I`d never write something like that.
    I would have thought that blindingly obvious. Some studies show about 1 in 25 people are sociopaths or psychopaths, and it is much higher than that at the top of organisations where there behaviour is rewarded. Those arent particularly rare traits in a successful politician.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,302
    edited September 12

    eek said:

    Question - all these new places that voted Tory to deliver Boris's Brexit Bill. Will they continue to support the Tories when said Brexit bill - voted for by them in good faith - has gone in the bin, and none of the economic benefits they hoped to gain arrive as Crash Brexit throws them to the wolves?

    Of course we then know that the HYUFDian wing of the party will then start to blame the voters for being workshy or feckless or all the usual bollocks. In the old days that was Labour voters they were besmirching. Now its Tory voters.

    In a lot of places Labour is suffering from the consequences of local Labour Governments not having money to spend due to Tory imposed austerity.

    The Tory MPs will be judged on pork belly results - create jobs and make things look better and they will be re-elected. Fail and they will be voted out.
    I am not sure that is true. Johnson's Tory party have discovered xenophobic scapegoating is the elixir of life. Johnson has tried it again in today's Telegraph. 'The EU is destroying your Union' dog whistle is being blown like fury by Johnson.
    I recall a frustrating conversation I had with family members before the referendum. They couldn`t understand why anyone would vote Remain. They completely bought the "project fear" jibe against the remain campaign. My argument that there will be unintended consequences revealed by leaving wasn`t persuasive, I know, but the damage to our union is emerging as number 1 in this regard.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,493
    Stocky said:

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    MarqueeMark: what`s your view of Boris at the moment? I`m taken aback by some of the posts this morning. Especially this from Foxy:

    "I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times."

    I`m no Boris fan but I`d never write something like that.
    Nothing Foxy wrote is untrue. Johnson is a feckless cum shedder who shouldn't be in charge of anything.
  • alex_ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    fox327 said:



    If you add to that a no-deal Brexit in January, the resulting disruption and job losses, and the end of the furlough scheme, you have the ingredients for a financial and economic crisis.

    .

    No deal is politically very good for Johnson and probably even necessary to provide obfuscation of his Covid 29 fucktastrophe. Everything can be blamed on the EU; one of the few things at which he excels.

    You can already see how he is fingering the Red Wall morons and getting them wet for it with phrases straight out of the Putin script like "foreign powers".
    As i said below i don't think this is true, for the simple reason that a huge chunk of voters think that the Withdrawal Agreement was "the deal". We signed the WA, Brexit happened, there have been no economic consequences as a result. Johnson will struggle to convince that the EU is to blame for no deal from Jan 1st and resulting consequences when they have admitted that they are the ones that will have triggered it (by breaking the law).

    "We had a deal, we ditched it ("for Northern Ireland"*)". What's that you say? Brexit WASN'T sorted on February 1st last year?

    (*also their claim that they had to break the law to protect the GFA won't look good if Northern Ireland explodes as a result...)
    I think you are on the money and it ties in with what I posted earlier. Red Wall punters voted to Get Brexit Done. For the WA which was the key plank in the Tory manifesto. We then got Brexit done. If we then see the stupidity of the government breaking the law of its own WA which people voted to enact, and that brings on the expected no deal chaos, punters aren't going to Back Boris and blame someone else.

    It will be "why have you torpedoed our Brexit where is the economic boost we expected why are the supermarkets empty". Combined with their new Tory MP saying that due to the sharp downturn in the economy they have regrettably just voted through a cut in local services but its really Labour's fault somehow.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,960
    Scott_xP said:
    Boris isn’t stupid. That’s not his problem. His problem is that he thinks he is cleverer than he is. He buys all his own piffle.

    Classic emperor’s new clothes.
  • Cyclefree said:

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    Nonsense. They’d be very happy to start talking to a SKS-led Labour government.
    I’m not sure they would. Why go through this endless psychodrama with Britain again?
    There is a big chasm between full membership and no deal. I think the long term destination (i.e. for the 2030s and 2040s) is an associate membership similar to the Common Market 2.0 proposal. We could have had it for the 2020s if the Libdems and Tiggers had voted for it in the indicative votes but instead we shall have a nationalistic shit show.

    LDs who show remorse for tuition fees but not that vote have their sense of priorities completely the wrong way around.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 24,518
    edited September 12

    On topic, IDK, he's bollocksing everything up and his health is clearly bad, but the general principle is that you should bet on things not happening, because things don't usually happen, and when things do happen, they're usually not the things you expect.

    Also to be more optimistic about the outlook:

    1) We mostly know how to handle the rona nowadays, it's just a question of how far you're prepared to turn various dials, and even if the government just sits there fiddling with itself people mostly turn the dials spontaneously as the risk increases, because they don't want to die.

    2) The moonshot idea doesn't strike me as obviously bonkers, and if it works the people involved will look very good. It costs lot of money, but most of it is probably only paid if it's actually going ahead and producing tests, and if it's going ahead and producing tests then it's also saving an ungodly amount of money by solving the virus problem...

    The mass testing idea is quite sensible.
    The way they are going about it seems pretty bonkers to me. Granted there’s very little detail available about the plan, but the ludicrous cost is one piece.
    This is another:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/11/uk-health-screening-advisers-not-involved-in-moonshot-covid-plan-mass-testing-coronavirus




  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    moonshine said:

    I am reliably told that November is still a likely date for first Ox-AZN vaccines in British arms. Front line workers only. Gradual roll out to other groups thereafter.

    The puzzling thing to me is the government’s messaging. It’s all wrong. You might convince even me that the current wave of authoritarianism is ok if you are defining a near term end date with high probability.

    Instead they talk about spending £100bn a year on testing as though the crisis is here forever. They speak only vaguely in highly caveated terms about a vaccine. They keep everyone in a state of constant fear about the “second wave”. An emotive and ill defined term that has entered our lexicon so suddenly that almost no one stops to think what it actually means.

    The government have to get better at spelling out the temporary nature of this event, that without doubt we’ve already passed through the abyss and the brighter tomorrow is right around the corner.

    Boris Johnson might not have died in that hospital room but the optimistic libertarian in him surely did.

    Elsewhere on this thread this government is getting correctly panned over Brexit for either not thinking things through past the next couple of months or just lying about the obvious consequences of things shortly down the road.

    I'm an optimistic libertarian as well but I don't see the point in spinning a cheerful message about how the end to the virus is just around the corner when nobody has the faintest idea how long it's going to take to get an end to the virus. People need to make plans for what's actually going to happen, and what's actually going to happen won't necessarily be what we want to happen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,108
    edited September 12
    Stocky said:

    One thing is clear - the EU aren't ever going to want us back.

    MarqueeMark: what`s your view of Boris at the moment? I`m taken aback by some of the posts this morning. Especially this from Foxy:

    "I think that there is a fourth character trait. For all his superficial charm, he cares nothing for other people, not even his own children or their mothers. That is a very dangerous thing in a leader, particularly so in the present times."

    I`m no Boris fan but I`d never write something like that.
    It is true though, even if you accept the Daily Mail hagiography of his recent Scottish sojourn. Just look at all his previous relationships and children. I can understand couples breaking up, even having affairs, but how a father can be so uninterested in his own children following a break up is off the scale to me. I really cannot comprehend that, it is too dark a place.




  • eekeek Posts: 9,240
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Boris isn’t stupid. That’s not his problem. His problem is that he thinks he is cleverer than he is. He buys all his own piffle.

    Classic emperor’s new clothes.
    The hardest thing for people to learn is where the limits of their intelligence and knowledge is. Boris has never been in a position where he needed to learn this.

    Nor has he learnt that there are consequences from lying as he has previously always managed to do well out of the fall out.
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