That article doesn't make much sense. The headline (as you say) is "Adults with Covid-19 about 'twice as likely' to say they have dined at a restaurant, CDC study suggests".
But in the body of the article it says:
Forty-two percent of the adults who tested positive, the data showed, reported having close contact with at least one person known to have Covid-19, compared with 14% of those who tested negative -- and most of the close contacts, 51%, were family members.
.. which suggests that the main vector of infection was at home with family members or other 'close contact'. That doesn't seem compatible with the headline. Nor is there any info on what other factors they controlled for (maybe going to restaurants was correlated with other social contact).
No doubt it's clearer in the original paper, but it wouldn't be the first time that a news article is a bit confused as to what the research actually showed.
That article doesn't make much sense. The headline (as you say) is "Adults with Covid-19 about 'twice as likely' to say they have dined at a restaurant, CDC study suggests".
But in the body of the article it says:
Forty-two percent of the adults who tested positive, the data showed, reported having close contact with at least one person known to have Covid-19, compared with 14% of those who tested negative -- and most of the close contacts, 51%, were family members.
.. which suggests that the main vector of infection was at home with family members or other 'close contact'. That doesn't seem compatible with the headline. Nor is there any info on what other factors they controlled for (maybe going to restaurants was correlated with other social contact).
No doubt it's clearer in the original paper, but it wouldn't be the first time that a news article is a bit confused as to what the research actually showed.
It could be a correlation/causation issue. People who are more willing to go out and about may also be more willing to have close contacts in homes etc too.
Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?
They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?
They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
Lots of potential for an anti lockdown candidate. Starmer would just lock us up in a more orderly fashion and Davey would be snitching on anyone going to the pub. We’re back to
Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?
They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?
They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?
My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.
The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
That article doesn't make much sense. The headline (as you say) is "Adults with Covid-19 about 'twice as likely' to say they have dined at a restaurant, CDC study suggests".
But in the body of the article it says:
Forty-two percent of the adults who tested positive, the data showed, reported having close contact with at least one person known to have Covid-19, compared with 14% of those who tested negative -- and most of the close contacts, 51%, were family members.
.. which suggests that the main vector of infection was at home with family members or other 'close contact'. That doesn't seem compatible with the headline. Nor is there any info on what other factors they controlled for (maybe going to restaurants was correlated with other social contact).
No doubt it's clearer in the original paper, but it wouldn't be the first time that a news article is a bit confused as to what the research actually showed.
The article links to the original paper in the opening paragraphs.
Yes, close contact with someone known to have covid was an important source, unsurprisingly. The paper then looked at those with no known contact with a covid, and compared with a control group*. Bars and cafes also came out as a factor, but other activities do not. By the nature of the study if wasn't possible to identify particular risks around dining. It also recognised that dining out could be a marker of other risky behaviour. Nonetheless, the effect of dining should not be ignored.
*to be picky, I dont think the control group very well matched, the controls were better educated, and we know class is a risk factor.
Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?
They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?
They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?
My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.
The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
I thought the moonshot nonsense was cynical bullshit to get the "why can't I get a test" story off the news.
Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?
They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?
They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?
My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.
The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
I thought the moonshot nonsense was cynical bullshit to get the "why can't I get a test" story off the news.
Cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news has a limited shelf life. People start to realise, after a while, that it is cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news. And then they perceive everything like that. Even when it isn't.
Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?
They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?
They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?
My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.
The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
I thought the moonshot nonsense was cynical bullshit to get the "why can't I get a test" story off the news.
Cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news has a limited shelf life. People start to realise, after a while, that it is cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news. And then they perceive everything like that. Even when it isn't.
The trick is that the cynicism transfers from the specific people creating it to politicians and experts in general, which is exactly the condition that populists need to get more power and do more stealing.
While comparisons across Europe are difficult - the difference is COVID rates between (for example) us and France could be simply timing, a population less willing to follow the rules, or government policy (or all or none of these things), it’s far harder to dismiss this comparison:
Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?
They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?
They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?
My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.
The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
I thought the moonshot nonsense was cynical bullshit to get the "why can't I get a test" story off the news.
Cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news has a limited shelf life. People start to realise, after a while, that it is cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news. And then they perceive everything like that. Even when it isn't.
The trick is that the cynicism transfers from the specific people creating it to politicians and experts in general, which is exactly the condition that populists need to get more power and do more stealing.
The extreme example is, of course, Trump, whose constant spew of eye catching bullshit and lies is designed to make his audience doubt everything they hear from anyone.
Tory MPs have a new Whatsapp group entitled, “What the f*** is going on?”.
After a week in which the government has promised to break the law while dramatically limiting the nation’s freedom by statute, it’s a fair question.
Downing Street has found itself fighting its backbenchers on two fronts, Brexit and Covid, in recent days. Even Boris Johnson’s efforts to rally Conservative MPs on a Zoom call last night flirted with farce after a break in the signal that left them staring into the void.
Comments
But in the body of the article it says:
Forty-two percent of the adults who tested positive, the data showed, reported having close contact with at least one person known to have Covid-19, compared with 14% of those who tested negative -- and most of the close contacts, 51%, were family members.
.. which suggests that the main vector of infection was at home with family members or other 'close contact'. That doesn't seem compatible with the headline. Nor is there any info on what other factors they controlled for (maybe going to restaurants was correlated with other social contact).
No doubt it's clearer in the original paper, but it wouldn't be the first time that a news article is a bit confused as to what the research actually showed.
They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
This guy is absolutely comical lol
My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.
The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
Yes, close contact with someone known to have covid was an important source, unsurprisingly. The paper then looked at those with no known contact with a covid, and compared with a control group*. Bars and cafes also came out as a factor, but other activities do not. By the nature of the study if wasn't possible to identify particular risks around dining. It also recognised that dining out could be a marker of other risky behaviour. Nonetheless, the effect of dining should not be ignored.
*to be picky, I dont think the control group very well matched, the controls were better educated, and we know class is a risk factor.
I am not suggesting closing the night time economy, though last orders at 2200 seems a good idea.
You lock your whole self up.
Get your whole self out. NOW!
In, out, in, out, we mess your mind about.
We do the tenner off and then we turn around.
That's what it's all about.
Oh, blame the young people.
Oh, blame the Europeans.
Oh, blame the Trade Unions.
Our fault? Your fault!
Round, round, round.
And then they perceive everything like that.
Even when it isn't.
I am afraid that this abysmal legislation will pass the Commons, despite a significant Tory revolt.
https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1304028469492318208
https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1304424019450630144
(The following thread unpacks the details.)
https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1304475776935440385
After a week in which the government has promised to break the law while dramatically limiting the nation’s freedom by statute, it’s a fair question.
Downing Street has found itself fighting its backbenchers on two fronts, Brexit and Covid, in recent days. Even Boris Johnson’s efforts to rally Conservative MPs on a Zoom call last night flirted with farce after a break in the signal that left them staring into the void.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tories-beg-for-answers-as-boris-johnson-s-zoom-rally-turns-farcical-8b6dqrzcm