Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Promises, promises – then and now

1235»

Comments

  • Foxy said:



    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    That article doesn't make much sense. The headline (as you say) is "Adults with Covid-19 about 'twice as likely' to say they have dined at a restaurant, CDC study suggests".

    But in the body of the article it says:

    Forty-two percent of the adults who tested positive, the data showed, reported having close contact with at least one person known to have Covid-19, compared with 14% of those who tested negative -- and most of the close contacts, 51%, were family members.

    .. which suggests that the main vector of infection was at home with family members or other 'close contact'. That doesn't seem compatible with the headline. Nor is there any info on what other factors they controlled for (maybe going to restaurants was correlated with other social contact).

    No doubt it's clearer in the original paper, but it wouldn't be the first time that a news article is a bit confused as to what the research actually showed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/rorysalad/status/1304536737960595457

    The Tories are slowly crashing and burning.

    Are Sunaks relative rankings vs his fellow cabinet members unique? Any historic comparisons where one minister is 50 points clear of the rest?
    At the moment he is the drunken sailor splashing out on rounds of drinks for all. He won't be so popular when he hands over the bar tab too.
    The polling shows a public eager for HYUFD's jackboot to stop their neighbours fun
  • Foxy said:



    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    That article doesn't make much sense. The headline (as you say) is "Adults with Covid-19 about 'twice as likely' to say they have dined at a restaurant, CDC study suggests".

    But in the body of the article it says:

    Forty-two percent of the adults who tested positive, the data showed, reported having close contact with at least one person known to have Covid-19, compared with 14% of those who tested negative -- and most of the close contacts, 51%, were family members.

    .. which suggests that the main vector of infection was at home with family members or other 'close contact'. That doesn't seem compatible with the headline. Nor is there any info on what other factors they controlled for (maybe going to restaurants was correlated with other social contact).

    No doubt it's clearer in the original paper, but it wouldn't be the first time that a news article is a bit confused as to what the research actually showed.
    It could be a correlation/causation issue. People who are more willing to go out and about may also be more willing to have close contacts in homes etc too.
  • Foxy said:

    I wonder what will happen if "Eat out to help out" has boosted cases? It was a govt policy after all....
    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1304254529215647750?s=19
    Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?

    They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
    There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?

    They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_KdbASIkB8

    This guy is absolutely comical lol
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    isam said:

    Lots of potential for an anti lockdown candidate. Starmer would just lock us up in a more orderly fashion and Davey would be snitching on anyone going to the pub. We’re back to
    Foxy said:

    I wonder what will happen if "Eat out to help out" has boosted cases? It was a govt policy after all....
    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1304254529215647750?s=19
    But, lots of people enjoyed the summer, eating in nice pubs. Man cannot live on delivered wine alone.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,455
    edited September 2020

    Foxy said:

    I wonder what will happen if "Eat out to help out" has boosted cases? It was a govt policy after all....
    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1304254529215647750?s=19
    Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?

    They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
    There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?

    They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
    If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?

    My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.

    The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    At some point, people should be allowed to get on with their lives. When is this point? Soon, very soon, I hope.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:



    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    That article doesn't make much sense. The headline (as you say) is "Adults with Covid-19 about 'twice as likely' to say they have dined at a restaurant, CDC study suggests".

    But in the body of the article it says:

    Forty-two percent of the adults who tested positive, the data showed, reported having close contact with at least one person known to have Covid-19, compared with 14% of those who tested negative -- and most of the close contacts, 51%, were family members.

    .. which suggests that the main vector of infection was at home with family members or other 'close contact'. That doesn't seem compatible with the headline. Nor is there any info on what other factors they controlled for (maybe going to restaurants was correlated with other social contact).

    No doubt it's clearer in the original paper, but it wouldn't be the first time that a news article is a bit confused as to what the research actually showed.
    The article links to the original paper in the opening paragraphs.

    Yes, close contact with someone known to have covid was an important source, unsurprisingly. The paper then looked at those with no known contact with a covid, and compared with a control group*. Bars and cafes also came out as a factor, but other activities do not. By the nature of the study if wasn't possible to identify particular risks around dining. It also recognised that dining out could be a marker of other risky behaviour. Nonetheless, the effect of dining should not be ignored.

    *to be picky, I dont think the control group very well matched, the controls were better educated, and we know class is a risk factor.
  • At some point, people should be allowed to get on with their lives. When is this point? Soon, very soon, I hope.

    Careful somebody might dob you into the secret police.as a potential revolutionary.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    At some point, people should be allowed to get on with their lives. When is this point? Soon, very soon, I hope.

    Yes, people will have to get on with their lives, but simple mitigating actions need to continue. Masks, hand washing, Social Distancing etc etc.

    I am not suggesting closing the night time economy, though last orders at 2200 seems a good idea.
  • Foxy said:

    I wonder what will happen if "Eat out to help out" has boosted cases? It was a govt policy after all....
    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1304254529215647750?s=19
    Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?

    They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
    There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?

    They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
    If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?

    My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.

    The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
    I thought the moonshot nonsense was cynical bullshit to get the "why can't I get a test" story off the news.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,167
    Promised You A Miracle is an excellent New Wave song by Simple Minds.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Promised You A Miracle is an excellent New Wave song by Simple Minds.

    Meh. Only good thing about Simple Minds was Patsy Kensit
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Our Government hokey Cokey.

    You lock your whole self up.
    Get your whole self out. NOW!
    In, out, in, out, we mess your mind about.
    We do the tenner off and then we turn around.

    That's what it's all about.

    Oh, blame the young people.
    Oh, blame the Europeans.
    Oh, blame the Trade Unions.

    Our fault? Your fault!
    Round, round, round.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Foxy said:

    I wonder what will happen if "Eat out to help out" has boosted cases? It was a govt policy after all....
    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1304254529215647750?s=19
    Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?

    They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
    There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?

    They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
    If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?

    My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.

    The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
    I thought the moonshot nonsense was cynical bullshit to get the "why can't I get a test" story off the news.
    Cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news has a limited shelf life. People start to realise, after a while, that it is cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news.
    And then they perceive everything like that.
    Even when it isn't.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited September 2020
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I wonder what will happen if "Eat out to help out" has boosted cases? It was a govt policy after all....
    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1304254529215647750?s=19
    Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?

    They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
    There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?

    They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
    If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?

    My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.

    The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
    I thought the moonshot nonsense was cynical bullshit to get the "why can't I get a test" story off the news.
    Cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news has a limited shelf life. People start to realise, after a while, that it is cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news.
    And then they perceive everything like that.
    Even when it isn't.
    The trick is that the cynicism transfers from the specific people creating it to politicians and experts in general, which is exactly the condition that populists need to get more power and do more stealing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    .Great header, @Cyclefree .
    I am afraid that this abysmal legislation will pass the Commons, despite a significant Tory revolt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    While comparisons across Europe are difficult - the difference is COVID rates between (for example) us and France could be simply timing, a population less willing to follow the rules, or government policy (or all or none of these things), it’s far harder to dismiss this comparison:

    https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1304028469492318208
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited September 2020
    Conversely...

    https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1304424019450630144

    (The following thread unpacks the details.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    I wonder what will happen if "Eat out to help out" has boosted cases? It was a govt policy after all....
    Dining out doubled the risk in this CDC study.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1304254529215647750?s=19
    Unfortunately, the alternative - keeping the country in suspended animation a la April indefinitely - wasn't realistic. The question now is, does the Government ruin any good that the furlough and its stimulus efforts have done by salami slicing society and business back down, until we return to something like April again? Or does it attempt to shield the vulnerable en masse and try to keep the country limping along in something resembling a functional state through the Winter?

    They are incompetent, useless and in thrall to old people, so I'm not exactly optimistic.
    There is another factor at play - I wonder if they know the true state of the Oxford vaccine trial or not yet?

    They have the vaccine stock on order now, its due to be delivered this month already I believe. If they're confident that we're ~2 months away from a vaccine then preventing a surge now followed by a quick rollout of vaccine may make sense from a health and economic PoV. If on the other hand we're years away then it'd make no sense whatsoever.
    If the government thought the vaccine would be ready in a couple of months, why all the moonshot stuff?

    My reading is that they think we ain't getting a vaccine for many months, as the government has returned to the game of dangling it wont be too long now, perhaps start of 2021, but when pushed it becomes more well sometime in 2021.

    The moonshot etc is all carrot to please just do as we say now, normality isn't too far away, in order to nudge us through the autumn / winter with a bit of hope.
    I thought the moonshot nonsense was cynical bullshit to get the "why can't I get a test" story off the news.
    Cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news has a limited shelf life. People start to realise, after a while, that it is cynical bullshit to get stuff off the news.
    And then they perceive everything like that.
    Even when it isn't.
    The trick is that the cynicism transfers from the specific people creating it to politicians and experts in general, which is exactly the condition that populists need to get more power and do more stealing.
    The extreme example is, of course, Trump, whose constant spew of eye catching bullshit and lies is designed to make his audience doubt everything they hear from anyone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Not encouraging. I guess we’ll find out how accurate this is fairly soon.

    https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1304475776935440385
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Tory MPs have a new Whatsapp group entitled, “What the f*** is going on?”.

    After a week in which the government has promised to break the law while dramatically limiting the nation’s freedom by statute, it’s a fair question.

    Downing Street has found itself fighting its backbenchers on two fronts, Brexit and Covid, in recent days. Even Boris Johnson’s efforts to rally Conservative MPs on a Zoom call last night flirted with farce after a break in the signal that left them staring into the void.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tories-beg-for-answers-as-boris-johnson-s-zoom-rally-turns-farcical-8b6dqrzcm
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    New thread, by the reliably excellent @david_herdson .
This discussion has been closed.