David Ornstein @bbcsport_david 6m BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc
Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power
Not a good time to be a bluebirds, or indeed a Spurs fan! Utter madness. Was at match Saturday. Little did I know that it would be Mackay's last home game.
On quite a few Liverpool forums, there's been quite a few Cardiff City fans turning up and saying along the lines
"This is how bad Vincent Tan is, we're actually cheering and agreeing with what a former Swansea manager (Brendan Rodgers) said today"
Yes it comes to something when the owner has us City fans agreeing with a former Swans manager. Total chaos. I expect a major thumping at Anfield Saturday.
The most troubling thing for Cardiff fans is if Mackay goes, which decent manager will want to work under Vincent Tan?
@compouter1 No inside info re next poll, just wondered by how much Labour's lead had changed over 12 months. From c. +10 to c. +5, not a great achievement for team Ed over the year.
Lets play the stats game. Compared to the last Sun/Yougov last year, Labour down 2% and Tory up 1%. Compared to last Com Res/Sun Mirror Lab down 3% Tory down 1%.Compared to last Opinium Labour down 2% Tory up 1%.Last ICM Lab down 3% Tory no change.
Every YouGov poll in December 2012, Labour polled 40+ in all 16 of them.
Labour have only polled 40+ in 4 out of the 16 YouGov polls in December 2013
Beginning of the end. If they aren't careful, they might end up with a slim majority rather than a stonking majority, or like the people of Bolton going from a Labour majority of 22 to 21 should they lose the by election today.
No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:
6.4 7.0 6.2 7.8 6.6 7.2 7.4 5.2 4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come
So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people of whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?
It matters little to us what you get cross over, Compouter.
If Sunday's poll still shows a Labour lead, I will get hold of the left post and you get hold of the right post(obvioulsy) and you can tell me where you want to place them again.
My predictions are like St George's fiscal mandates, compouter.
They are rolling forward forecasts.
So if there is no crossover Sunday, where shall we place the goalposts this time?
David Ornstein @bbcsport_david 6m BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc
Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power
Not a good time to be a bluebirds, or indeed a Spurs fan! Utter madness. Was at match Saturday. Little did I know that it would be Mackay's last home game.
On quite a few Liverpool forums, there's been quite a few Cardiff City fans turning up and saying along the lines
"This is how bad Vincent Tan is, we're actually cheering and agreeing with what a former Swansea manager (Brendan Rodgers) said today"
Yes it comes to something when the owner has us City fans agreeing with a former Swans manager. Total chaos. I expect a major thumping at Anfield Saturday.
The most troubling thing for Cardiff fans is if Mackay goes, which decent manager will want to work under Vincent Tan?
Money talks.Solksjaer favourite. Levy has fired more managers than the Tories have cabinet ministers and they still keep coming! lol
David Ornstein @bbcsport_david 6m BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc
Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power
Not a good time to be a bluebirds, or indeed a Spurs fan! Utter madness. Was at match Saturday. Little did I know that it would be Mackay's last home game.
On quite a few Liverpool forums, there's been quite a few Cardiff City fans turning up and saying along the lines
"This is how bad Vincent Tan is, we're actually cheering and agreeing with what a former Swansea manager (Brendan Rodgers) said today"
Yes it comes to something when the owner has us City fans agreeing with a former Swans manager. Total chaos. I expect a major thumping at Anfield Saturday.
The most troubling thing for Cardiff fans is if Mackay goes, which decent manager will want to work under Vincent Tan?
Money talks.Solksjaer favourite. Levy has fired more managers than the Tories have cabinet ministers and they still keep coming! lol
But Vincent Tan has taken boardroom interference to a new level.
I can't imagine Daniel Levy sending tactical notes during a match to the manager.
Speaking of American phraseology, one that I really hate is the insipid "Happy Holidays".
First week in December I am leaving a restaurant (not my usual one) and someone called out the phrase, I turned on my heel and asked which ones? Hannukah and Christmas plus any others came the reply. I explained that this year Hannukah coincided with Thanksgiving so there was only 1 holiday to give best wishes for. Happy Holiday he replied. It's almost anathema here to wish anyone Merry Christmas.
Most kids here never sing christmas carols at school now. They get all the non-religious songs and that's it.
David Ornstein @bbcsport_david 6m BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc
Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power
Not a good time to be a bluebirds, or indeed a Spurs fan! Utter madness. Was at match Saturday. Little did I know that it would be Mackay's last home game.
On quite a few Liverpool forums, there's been quite a few Cardiff City fans turning up and saying along the lines
"This is how bad Vincent Tan is, we're actually cheering and agreeing with what a former Swansea manager (Brendan Rodgers) said today"
Yes it comes to something when the owner has us City fans agreeing with a former Swans manager. Total chaos. I expect a major thumping at Anfield Saturday.
The most troubling thing for Cardiff fans is if Mackay goes, which decent manager will want to work under Vincent Tan?
Money talks.Solksjaer favourite. Levy has fired more managers than the Tories have cabinet ministers and they still keep coming! lol
Well being a manager seems like a good job even if you end up fired. Get a deal for as long as you can, then if they fire you after a few months, they'll probably agree to pay for a large proportion of the time you were meant to be there for initially so you agree to leave by 'mutual consent' and not drag things out and cause trouble, and you move on to the next job and begin again.
André Villas-Boas has been approached by AC Milan to become their new coach despite his sacking by Tottenham Hotspur.
The Portuguese was contacted this week by intermediaries acting on behalf of the Italian club, but told them he wants time to take stock of his career after his sudden departure from White Hart Lane.
No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:
6.4 7.0 6.2 7.8 6.6 7.2 7.4 5.2 4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come
So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people of whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?
It matters little to us what you get cross over, Compouter.
If Sunday's poll still shows a Labour lead, I will get hold of the left post and you get hold of the right post(obvioulsy) and you can tell me where you want to place them again.
My predictions are like St George's fiscal mandates, compouter.
They are rolling forward forecasts.
So if there is no crossover Sunday, where shall we place the goalposts this time?
Do you really want me to answer that question, compouter?
Speaking of American phraseology, one that I really hate is the insipid "Happy Holidays".
First week in December I am leaving a restaurant (not my usual one) and someone called out the phrase, I turned on my heel and asked which ones? Hannukah and Christmas plus any others came the reply. I explained that this year Hannukah coincided with Thanksgiving so there was only 1 holiday to give best wishes for. Happy Holiday he replied. It's almost anathema here to wish anyone Merry Christmas.
Most kids here never sing christmas carols at school now. They get all the non-religious songs and that's it.
Well, there's probably some other religion's holiday going on in December I guess. Besides, Christmas is only one day, so is it even necessary to wish people a happy holidays or a merry christmas for it in the first week of December? I'm all for expanding the breadth of holiday seasons, but it's harder to get offended that far from the actual date of the celebratory occasion. And hey, it could be worse - at least it's not banned like Puritans wanted (an amusing note from the Cromwellian Republic had the parliament sitting on Christmas day, and debaters lamenting that so many MPs were not present despite the official line that such 'holy' days should not be observed)
Though it has always struck me as an odd quirk that due to each nation's development, even though the USA is on average a lot more religious than the UK even now, they seem to have a lot more trouble with things like carols and the like than over here. At my primary school it was about 30% muslim or hindu, and the only things we sang in school assemblies all year round were Christian songs. Or Beatle's songs for some reason.
Though for me, the phrase that gets me is 'happy christmas'. I've no idea if it has always been acceptable, but in my head it's always 'merry' christmas and 'happy' new year, and mixing the adjectives around just makes my brain revolt. I don't know if it would trouble me more or less if I were actually Christian.
If I were a Labour supporter I'd be extremely nervous about these polling trends. They smack of respondents' being miffed during the economic lull and refusing to give the Tories any leeway until they'd proven themselves and the economy was visibly on the mend. If this is the case, and the recovery is to be as robust and sizeable as many predict, then voters could soon be flocking to the Tories in their droves. Ed should be a worried man. The Tories' anti-honeymoon could be coming to an end.
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
If I were a Labour supporter I'd be extremely nervous about these polling trends. They smack of respondents' being miffed during the economic lull and refusing to give the Tories any leeway until they'd proven themselves and the economy was visibly on the mend. If this is the case, and the recovery is to be as robust and sizeable as many predict, then voters could soon be flocking to the Tories in their droves. Ed should be a worried man. The Tories' anti-honeymoon could be coming to an end.
Labour could be 3-4 points behind the Tories and still ahead in seats.Labour don`t need false bravado,the Tories do.
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
Sadly, such is the inflated reputation of Cromwell for monstrousness, there are probably many who would agree with Putin in comparing him to Stalin, if not for the same purposes. Not that Cromwell was free from sin, but still, it wrankles.
I do also take issue with the Guardian suggesting Cromwell's revolutionary ideals quickly congealed, pointing to his becoming a quasi- king. The fact that a lot of the people on the Parliament side were not fervent republicans, and Cromwell himself was not ideologically driving such concerns, was a major factor in the whole system being such a mess and why they ended up creating such a pseudo-monarchical system. He was not exactly a prime example of revolutionary ideals to begin with.
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
Sadly, such is the inflated reputation of Cromwell for monstrousness, there are probably many who would agree with Putin in comparing him to Stalin, if not for the same purposes. Not that Cromwell was free from sin, but still, it wrankles.
I'd have been a Roundhead if I lived during the Civil King.
Whilst I'm a fan of the Monarchy and Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, I'm not sure I'd have been a supporter of the Divine Rights of Kings Malarkey.
Well Cromwell was certainly a vicious dictator who was sustained by an unshakable belief in an extreme ideology. He also wreaked death and destruction. It's baffling why he gets a statue outside Parliament.
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
Sadly, such is the inflated reputation of Cromwell for monstrousness, there are probably many who would agree with Putin in comparing him to Stalin, if not for the same purposes. Not that Cromwell was free from sin, but still, it wrankles.
I'd have been a Roundhead if I lived during the Civil King.
Whilst I'm a fan of the Monarchy and Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, I'm not sure I'd have been a supporter of the Divine Rights of Kings Malarkey.
I'm sure I would as well, but it's a pet peeve of mine that the complexities of the civil war period are too often ignored.
Well Cromwell was certainly a vicious dictator who was sustained by an unshakable belief in an extreme ideology. He also wreaked death and destruction. It's baffling why he gets a statue outside Parliament.
Bah, Cromwell was a Democrat, he established that wonderful principle that the Monarch can only govern with Parliament/The People's consent.
Sometimes you have to do unpalatable things to get basic freedoms and principles.
We should honour him more than with just a mere statue.
Mike posted the other day about the 'Tory majority' price being wrong. I'm not sure it is. An election conducted today would see Labour with a majority. In 2015 though the economic state-of-play will be different, and the odds for the next GE are all about that time.
While that's true, I don't agree with the widely-held assumption that a further economic recovery automatically benefits the Tories. I mean, you can talk about comparisons with this time last year all you want, but equally Labour's position has improved since the summer even though the economic news has got rosier since then, so surely on that trend, the better the economy gets (on the official stats), the better for Labour?
It's pretty much one of the iron laws of politics around the world that, when the economy does badly, people gravitate towards centre-right parties who embody safety and security (even if they're to blame for the economy doing badly), and when the economy is doing well, people feel more optimistic and thus able to believe what the centre-left promises. I don't think it's any coincidence that Labour's worst period in the polls over the last 3 years was in late 2011/early 2012 when the Eurocrisis was in full flow and people were feeling scared, which meant they "clung to nurse". And in fact, look at the 1990s, we saw the Tories win in '92 during a prolonged slump and lose in '97 with the economy booming. The idea that grateful electorates always reward a Tory government that's presided over an economic boom has very little historical evidence to support it (it could be argued 1983 is an example to some extent, although the Falklands factor and a split opposition can't be overlooked).
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
The Guardian is misunderstanding what Putin is up to. By comparing Stalin to Cromwell, he is arguing that the establishment can honour a controversial former revolutionary without fully endorsing his legacy.
Putin is seeking to rehabilitate Stalin as the unifier of the slavic nations - Russia, the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This is the core of the former Soviet Union, the part that holds the mineral wealth. Putin will argue that this core should never have been "surrendered" into independence by Yeltsin (although Putin will be more inclined to blame Gorbachev).
Putin's audience is domestic not international. Stalin is still revered in Russia as a leader for providing a 'strong ruling hand' and for defeating the threat of the Nazis. Restoring a little bit of his reputation is as useful to Putin as it was for the UK Parliament to honour Oliver Cromwell.
--------------- Chrismas Quiz Question
Which was the only British historical figure to be honoured with a public statue and monument in Moscow under Soviet Rule?
Well Cromwell was certainly a vicious dictator who was sustained by an unshakable belief in an extreme ideology. He also wreaked death and destruction. It's baffling why he gets a statue outside Parliament.
No it isn't.
Because: as he was guilty of many crimes against which Damnation is denounced, and for which hell-fire is prepared, so he had some good qualities which have caused the memory of some men in all Ages to be celebrated; and he will be look'd upon by posterity as a brave badd man. Edward Hyde, Earl of Clarendon
Hyde also praised Cromwell's wisdom and industriousness despite regarding him as the most evil of all men - some people achieve great things worthy of recognition, but that greatness can be good or bad, and even many of his enemies knew Cromwell was a worthy figure. He was not the romantisized figure that warranted that statue, but it is far from 'certain' that his achievements did not warrant it - unlike Stalin, Cromwell's nature and legacy are more complex.
Stalin's greatness comes down heavily on the bad side. Cromwell's is more nuanced - his military campaigns, like most of the period, were often terrible and in Ireland partly fuelled by the absolutely common racist dislike of the Irish that existed in England at the time, and he lacked a coherent vision for the future of the country and so most of what he attempted did not work or stand the test of time. But his rise and efforts are still significant, the swift demise of the Commonwealth was to a large degree because, though Cromwell relied on and acted through the army, he was the only one who had been able to at least try and keep the sides together, he was relgiously intolerant but not to the extent of many of his peers (or merely in different ways to their own intolerances).
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
The Guardian is misunderstanding what Putin is up to. By comparing Stalin to Cromwell, he is arguing that the establishment can honour a controversial former revolutionary without fully endorsing his legacy.
Putin is seeking to rehabilitate Stalin as the unifier of the slavic nations - Russia, the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This is the core of the former Soviet Union, the part that holds the mineral wealth. Putin will argue that this core should never have been "surrendered" into independence by Yeltsin (although Putin will be more inclined to blame Gorbachev).
Putin's audience is domestic not international. Stalin is still revered in Russia as a leader for providing a 'strong ruling hand' and for defeating the threat of the Nazis. Restoring a little bit of his reputation is as useful to Putin as it was for the UK Parliament to honour Oliver Cromwell.
--------------- Chrismas Quiz Question
Which was the only British historical figure to be honoured with a public statue and monument in Moscow under Soviet Rule?
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
The Guardian is misunderstanding what Putin is up to. By comparing Stalin to Cromwell, he is arguing that the establishment can honour a controversial former revolutionary without fully endorsing his legacy.
Putin is seeking to rehabilitate Stalin as the unifier of the slavic nations - Russia, the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This is the core of the former Soviet Union, the part that holds the mineral wealth. Putin will argue that this core should never have been "surrendered" into independence by Yeltsin (although Putin will be more inclined to blame Gorbachev).
Putin's audience is domestic not international. Stalin is still revered in Russia as a leader for providing a 'strong ruling hand' and for defeating the threat of the Nazis. Restoring a little bit of his reputation is as useful to Putin as it was for the UK Parliament to honour Oliver Cromwell.
--------------- Chrismas Quiz Question
Which was the only British historical figure to be honoured with a public statue and monument in Moscow under Soviet Rule?
Engels
I was too late to edit my original question which should be corrected to "honoured by public monument in Moscow under Soviet Rule". There was no statue and the monument honoured a number of revolutionary thinkers.
Engels was included in the list but is not the English historical figure I was looking for.
I have also just noticed that the monument "disappeared overnight" this year with a vague promise that it will be relocated in due course. Very Soviet!
Well Cromwell was certainly a vicious dictator who was sustained by an unshakable belief in an extreme ideology. He also wreaked death and destruction. It's baffling why he gets a statue outside Parliament.
No it isn't.
Because: as he was guilty of many crimes against which Damnation is denounced, and for which hell-fire is prepared, so he had some good qualities which have caused the memory of some men in all Ages to be celebrated; and he will be look'd upon by posterity as a brave badd man. Edward Hyde, Earl of Clarendon
Hyde also praised Cromwell's wisdom and industriousness despite regarding him as the most evil of all men - some people achieve great things worthy of recognition, but that greatness can be good or bad, and even many of his enemies knew Cromwell was a worthy figure. He was not the romantisized figure that warranted that statue, but it is far from 'certain' that his achievements did not warrant it - unlike Stalin, Cromwell's nature and legacy are more complex.
Stalin's greatness comes down heavily on the bad side, but as has been noted he did some things that people in Russia still revere him for - that can be horrifying because the level of his sustained barbarity would to most people render any positive achievements for naught.
Cromwell's is more nuanced - his military campaigns, like most of the period, were often terrible and in Ireland partly fuelled by the absolutely common racist dislike of the Irish that existed in England at the time, and he lacked a coherent vision for the future of the country and so most of what he attempted did not work or stand the test of time. But his rise and efforts are still significant, the swift demise of the Commonwealth was to a large degree because, though Cromwell relied on and acted through the army, he was the only one who had been able to at least try and keep the sides together, he was relgiously intolerant but not to the extent of many of his peers (or merely in different ways to their own intolerances). He was not ideologically driving ideas of republicanism or enfranchisement, but the consequences of actions that he was the dominant figure for, had a profound impact on how this nation developed in the decades after, into its current form.
Again, he was not the heroic figure of some Victorian historians, he was deeply flawed and was even as unshaken in his conviction as some would think, but it is simply absurd to condemn him out of hand.
If wreaking death and destruction is to be a bar on statues of figures, that's also a lot of statues we need to take down. Sadly, many great and even good figures of the past have that or other skeletons in their closets.
'It's pretty much one of the iron laws of politics around the world that, when the economy does badly, people gravitate towards centre-right parties who embody safety and security (even if they're to blame for the economy doing badly), and when the economy is doing well, people feel more optimistic and thus able to believe what the centre-left promises'
David Ornstein @bbcsport_david 6m BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc
Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power
Not a good time to be a bluebirds, or indeed a Spurs fan! Utter madness. Was at match Saturday. Little did I know that it would be Mackay's last home game.
On quite a few Liverpool forums, there's been quite a few Cardiff City fans turning up and saying along the lines
"This is how bad Vincent Tan is, we're actually cheering and agreeing with what a former Swansea manager (Brendan Rodgers) said today"
Yes it comes to something when the owner has us City fans agreeing with a former Swans manager. Total chaos. I expect a major thumping at Anfield Saturday.
The most troubling thing for Cardiff fans is if Mackay goes, which decent manager will want to work under Vincent Tan?
Money talks.Solksjaer favourite. Levy has fired more managers than the Tories have cabinet ministers and they still keep coming! lol
No way will Solksjaer take the Cardiff job. First thing he will do is ask Ferguson for advice and he will tell him under no circumstances work for a despot owner. If he goes short in the betting I will lay him.
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
The Guardian is misunderstanding what Putin is up to. By comparing Stalin to Cromwell, he is arguing that the establishment can honour a controversial former revolutionary without fully endorsing his legacy.
Putin is seeking to rehabilitate Stalin as the unifier of the slavic nations - Russia, the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This is the core of the former Soviet Union, the part that holds the mineral wealth. Putin will argue that this core should never have been "surrendered" into independence by Yeltsin (although Putin will be more inclined to blame Gorbachev).
Putin's audience is domestic not international. Stalin is still revered in Russia as a leader for providing a 'strong ruling hand' and for defeating the threat of the Nazis. Restoring a little bit of his reputation is as useful to Putin as it was for the UK Parliament to honour Oliver Cromwell.
--------------- Chrismas Quiz Question
Which was the only British historical figure to be honoured with a public statue and monument in Moscow under Soviet Rule?
I spoke to some Russians (not many, I didn't have my guide to interpret all the time!) and it enlightened me a lot. The fear all Putin's supporters expressed was that if power were not in the Kremlin, it would be in the hands of the oligarchs would would run off with it for themselves. Putin, they said, could be the "strong ruling hand" so at least their mineral wealth would be used for the benefit of the country.
No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:
6.4 7.0 6.2 7.8 6.6 7.2 7.4 5.2 4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come
So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people of whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?
It matters little to us what you get cross over, Compouter.
If Sunday's poll still shows a Labour lead, I will get hold of the left post and you get hold of the right post(obvioulsy) and you can tell me where you want to place them again.
My predictions are like St George's fiscal mandates, compouter.
They are rolling forward forecasts.
So if there is no crossover Sunday, where shall we place the goalposts this time?
Do you really want me to answer that question, compouter?
Ed's energy speech put pay to any real chance of a crossover because it set back the Tory advance somewhat. The polls had narrowed from 9-10 to 4-5, they went out to 7-8 and they're at 5-6 and closing. The lead had been at 4-5 for a while and we shall see if it gets lower than that soon.
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
The Guardian is misunderstanding what Putin is up to. By comparing Stalin to Cromwell, he is arguing that the establishment can honour a controversial former revolutionary without fully endorsing his legacy.
Putin is seeking to rehabilitate Stalin as the unifier of the slavic nations - Russia, the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This is the core of the former Soviet Union, the part that holds the mineral wealth. Putin will argue that this core should never have been "surrendered" into independence by Yeltsin (although Putin will be more inclined to blame Gorbachev).
Putin's audience is domestic not international. Stalin is still revered in Russia as a leader for providing a 'strong ruling hand' and for defeating the threat of the Nazis. Restoring a little bit of his reputation is as useful to Putin as it was for the UK Parliament to honour Oliver Cromwell.
--------------- Chrismas Quiz Question
Which was the only British historical figure to be honoured with a public statue and monument in Moscow under Soviet Rule?
I spoke to some Russians (not many, I didn't have my guide to interpret all the time!) and it enlightened me a lot. The fear all Putin's supporters expressed was that if power were not in the Kremlin, it would be in the hands of the oligarchs would would run off with it for themselves. Putin, they said, could be the "strong ruling hand" so at least their mineral wealth would be used for the benefit of the country.
Putin has definitely wrested back power from the Yeltsin oligarchs and from corrupt but powerful holders of political franchises such as Yuri Luzhkov, the Moscow Mayor. But whether Kremlin control is more beneficial to the Russian people than oligarchic control has not yet been proven.
An odd cold fish is Putin. He has unrivalled managerial skills and is a skilled projector of a public personality, but there is little evidence of any moral compass or developed political ideology. A St Petersburg 'KGB Colonel' playing political chess for his own satisfaction. He certainly has Cromwell's puritanical streak.
Political betting is a slow and steady game. £30 at a good price isn't too bad.
The EdM exit market on BF for jul2015 or later is 1.69/2.1 - that equates to a chance of between 63% and 48%.
There is no standard on political bets, so what seems like the same market can often be radically different. Betfair (for example) recently voided all bets on the next GE date.
I am probably being very dim but I can't see how it is 1.69/2.1 ... for me it looks like I can back at 1.1 or lay at 2.1?
'It's pretty much one of the iron laws of politics around the world that, when the economy does badly, people gravitate towards centre-right parties who embody safety and security (even if they're to blame for the economy doing badly), and when the economy is doing well, people feel more optimistic and thus able to believe what the centre-left promises'
So what happened in 1955,1959, 1970,1974,1987?
The Tories won those years generally for reasons other than the economy. In 1987 especially, the Tories were in a fundamentally stronger shape than now since they'd led the polls most of the time since the previous election, which is very different to now.
I wasn't saying the Tories COULDN'T win when the economy was doing well, just that very rarely has the economy doing well actually been a reason for the Tories winning, so basically there's little historical evidence to support the idea that an economic recovery would help the Tories overcome the huge deficit their brand has compared to the Labour brand right now.
There's actually something rather pro-immigration about having people who despite living there for many years are still, say, French.
FWIW, my Belgian cousin popped over for dinner this week (she was in London on business) and said it was quite ridiculous how many French people have moved to Brussels. They've virtually colonised the whole town, apparently.
(she has no desire to move back to Paris herself...)
Comments
The grinning is so good I'm coming back for seconds!
Very funny
I can't imagine Daniel Levy sending tactical notes during a match to the manager.
First week in December I am leaving a restaurant (not my usual one) and someone called out the phrase, I turned on my heel and asked which ones? Hannukah and Christmas plus any others came the reply. I explained that this year Hannukah coincided with Thanksgiving so there was only 1 holiday to give best wishes for. Happy Holiday he replied. It's almost anathema here to wish anyone Merry Christmas.
Most kids here never sing christmas carols at school now. They get all the non-religious songs and that's it.
André Villas-Boas has been approached by AC Milan to become their new coach despite his sacking by Tottenham Hotspur.
The Portuguese was contacted this week by intermediaries acting on behalf of the Italian club, but told them he wants time to take stock of his career after his sudden departure from White Hart Lane.
What do the NFL and Brokeback Mountain have in common?
In both of them, the Cowboys suck.
Davidson J Cameron. @camshrone
BBC News - Belgium shut to new citizens in 2013 http://bbc.in/1c9nVoU
Though it has always struck me as an odd quirk that due to each nation's development, even though the USA is on average a lot more religious than the UK even now, they seem to have a lot more trouble with things like carols and the like than over here. At my primary school it was about 30% muslim or hindu, and the only things we sang in school assemblies all year round were Christian songs. Or Beatle's songs for some reason.
Though for me, the phrase that gets me is 'happy christmas'. I've no idea if it has always been acceptable, but in my head it's always 'merry' christmas and 'happy' new year, and mixing the adjectives around just makes my brain revolt. I don't know if it would trouble me more or less if I were actually Christian.
Why are people saying he is favourite?
Vladimir Putin has a worse grasp of history than Morris Dancer.....
Vladimir Putin reckons there is no difference between Joseph Stalin and Oliver Cromwell, and that the former is no less deserving of a statue than the latter, who, despite cutting off the head of a king, gets pride of place outside the Houses of Parliament. "What is the essential difference between Cromwell and Stalin? Can you tell me? No difference," he said at his annual press conference on Thursday.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/19/russia-leader-vladimir-putin-cromwell-stalin
I do also take issue with the Guardian suggesting Cromwell's revolutionary ideals quickly congealed, pointing to his becoming a quasi- king. The fact that a lot of the people on the Parliament side were not fervent republicans, and Cromwell himself was not ideologically driving such concerns, was a major factor in the whole system being such a mess and why they ended up creating such a pseudo-monarchical system. He was not exactly a prime example of revolutionary ideals to begin with.
Whilst I'm a fan of the Monarchy and Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, I'm not sure I'd have been a supporter of the Divine Rights of Kings Malarkey.
Sometimes you have to do unpalatable things to get basic freedoms and principles.
We should honour him more than with just a mere statue.
It's pretty much one of the iron laws of politics around the world that, when the economy does badly, people gravitate towards centre-right parties who embody safety and security (even if they're to blame for the economy doing badly), and when the economy is doing well, people feel more optimistic and thus able to believe what the centre-left promises. I don't think it's any coincidence that Labour's worst period in the polls over the last 3 years was in late 2011/early 2012 when the Eurocrisis was in full flow and people were feeling scared, which meant they "clung to nurse". And in fact, look at the 1990s, we saw the Tories win in '92 during a prolonged slump and lose in '97 with the economy booming. The idea that grateful electorates always reward a Tory government that's presided over an economic boom has very little historical evidence to support it (it could be argued 1983 is an example to some extent, although the Falklands factor and a split opposition can't be overlooked).
Putin is seeking to rehabilitate Stalin as the unifier of the slavic nations - Russia, the Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. This is the core of the former Soviet Union, the part that holds the mineral wealth. Putin will argue that this core should never have been "surrendered" into independence by Yeltsin (although Putin will be more inclined to blame Gorbachev).
Putin's audience is domestic not international. Stalin is still revered in Russia as a leader for providing a 'strong ruling hand' and for defeating the threat of the Nazis. Restoring a little bit of his reputation is as useful to Putin as it was for the UK Parliament to honour Oliver Cromwell.
---------------
Chrismas Quiz Question
Which was the only British historical figure to be honoured with a public statue and monument in Moscow under Soviet Rule?
Lab 744
Con 325
UKIP 252
Green 60
LD 53
Because:
as he was guilty of many crimes against which Damnation is denounced, and for which hell-fire is prepared, so he had some good qualities which have caused the memory of some men in all Ages to be celebrated; and he will be look'd upon by posterity as a brave badd man. Edward Hyde, Earl of Clarendon
Hyde also praised Cromwell's wisdom and industriousness despite regarding him as the most evil of all men - some people achieve great things worthy of recognition, but that greatness can be good or bad, and even many of his enemies knew Cromwell was a worthy figure. He was not the romantisized figure that warranted that statue, but it is far from 'certain' that his achievements did not warrant it - unlike Stalin, Cromwell's nature and legacy are more complex.
Stalin's greatness comes down heavily on the bad side. Cromwell's is more nuanced - his military campaigns, like most of the period, were often terrible and in Ireland partly fuelled by the absolutely common racist dislike of the Irish that existed in England at the time, and he lacked a coherent vision for the future of the country and so most of what he attempted did not work or stand the test of time. But his rise and efforts are still significant, the swift demise of the Commonwealth was to a large degree because, though Cromwell relied on and acted through the army, he was the only one who had been able to at least try and keep the sides together, he was relgiously intolerant but not to the extent of many of his peers (or merely in different ways to their own intolerances).
Engels was included in the list but is not the English historical figure I was looking for.
I have also just noticed that the monument "disappeared overnight" this year with a vague promise that it will be relocated in due course. Very Soviet!
Because:
as he was guilty of many crimes against which Damnation is denounced, and for which hell-fire is prepared, so he had some good qualities which have caused the memory of some men in all Ages to be celebrated; and he will be look'd upon by posterity as a brave badd man. Edward Hyde, Earl of Clarendon
Hyde also praised Cromwell's wisdom and industriousness despite regarding him as the most evil of all men - some people achieve great things worthy of recognition, but that greatness can be good or bad, and even many of his enemies knew Cromwell was a worthy figure. He was not the romantisized figure that warranted that statue, but it is far from 'certain' that his achievements did not warrant it - unlike Stalin, Cromwell's nature and legacy are more complex.
Stalin's greatness comes down heavily on the bad side, but as has been noted he did some things that people in Russia still revere him for - that can be horrifying because the level of his sustained barbarity would to most people render any positive achievements for naught.
Cromwell's is more nuanced - his military campaigns, like most of the period, were often terrible and in Ireland partly fuelled by the absolutely common racist dislike of the Irish that existed in England at the time, and he lacked a coherent vision for the future of the country and so most of what he attempted did not work or stand the test of time. But his rise and efforts are still significant, the swift demise of the Commonwealth was to a large degree because, though Cromwell relied on and acted through the army, he was the only one who had been able to at least try and keep the sides together, he was relgiously intolerant but not to the extent of many of his peers (or merely in different ways to their own intolerances). He was not ideologically driving ideas of republicanism or enfranchisement, but the consequences of actions that he was the dominant figure for, had a profound impact on how this nation developed in the decades after, into its current form.
Again, he was not the heroic figure of some Victorian historians, he was deeply flawed and was even as unshaken in his conviction as some would think, but it is simply absurd to condemn him out of hand.
If wreaking death and destruction is to be a bar on statues of figures, that's also a lot of statues we need to take down. Sadly, many great and even good figures of the past have that or other skeletons in their closets.
And I'll shut up now.
'It's pretty much one of the iron laws of politics around the world that, when the economy does badly, people gravitate towards centre-right parties who embody safety and security (even if they're to blame for the economy doing badly), and when the economy is doing well, people feel more optimistic and thus able to believe what the centre-left promises'
So what happened in 1955,1959, 1970,1974,1987?
Con 301 UKIP 234 Ind 73 Lab 51 LD 27
LAB - 51.9% (-21.2)
CON - 22.7% (+5.5)
UKIP - 17.6% (+17.6)
GRN - 4.2% (+4.2)
LD - 3.7% (-6.1)
L/Dems last and behind the Greens.
Given the disastrous Obamacare rollout, that's hardly surprising.
Time will tell.
Con 266
UKIP 263
Night all.
'Which was the only British historical figure to be honoured with a public statue and monument in Moscow under Soviet Rule?'
Harold Wilson.
I spoke to some Russians (not many, I didn't have my guide to interpret all the time!) and it enlightened me a lot. The fear all Putin's supporters expressed was that if power were not in the Kremlin, it would be in the hands of the oligarchs would would run off with it for themselves. Putin, they said, could be the "strong ruling hand" so at least their mineral wealth would be used for the benefit of the country.
Clue: Go much further back in time!
There's actually something rather pro-immigration about having people who despite living there for many years are still, say, French. Ed's energy speech put pay to any real chance of a crossover because it set back the Tory advance somewhat. The polls had narrowed from 9-10 to 4-5, they went out to 7-8 and they're at 5-6 and closing. The lead had been at 4-5 for a while and we shall see if it gets lower than that soon.
CON 649 UKIP 576 LAB 346 LIB DEMS 201 GREENS 55
Lincolnshire - Scotter Rural:
Lib Dem 726 Con 348 UKIP 264 Ind 137 turnout 22.76%
LD gain
An odd cold fish is Putin. He has unrivalled managerial skills and is a skilled projector of a public personality, but there is little evidence of any moral compass or developed political ideology. A St Petersburg 'KGB Colonel' playing political chess for his own satisfaction. He certainly has Cromwell's puritanical streak.
We need Mark Senior to explain the local factors.
Here is the monument (before it was dismantled).
Now it is a race for the Cyrillic transcribers!
http://cdn2.img22.rian.ru/images/94783/17/947831798.jpg
I wasn't saying the Tories COULDN'T win when the economy was doing well, just that very rarely has the economy doing well actually been a reason for the Tories winning, so basically there's little historical evidence to support the idea that an economic recovery would help the Tories overcome the huge deficit their brand has compared to the Labour brand right now.
ukip 34.1 (+34.1)
Turnout was about 19%
They are not going away.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-8.00,49.19,433
(she has no desire to move back to Paris herself...)
Alternatively Karl Marx?