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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: December 19th 2013

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited December 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: December 19th 2013

Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence)
Result of last election (2012): Lab 41, Con 16, Lib Dem 3 (Labour overall majority of 22)
Result in ward over last electoral cycle:
2010: Lab 2,302 (45%), Lib Dem 1,203 (23%), Con 903 (18%), Ind 625 (12%), Green 114 (2%)
2011: Lab 1,918 (67%), Con 616 (22%), Lib Dem 326 (11%)
2012:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited December 2013
    Black Isle on Highland is an awesome name.

    Something out of a TinTin or Sherlock book.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Harry, no need to apologise, I'm appreciative of the time and effort you take into your threads.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I really appreciate these threads as I don't have time to keep up with the detail. Thanks Harry.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Black Isle on Highland is an awesome name.

    Something out of a TinTin or Sherlock book.


    "Scotter on West Lindsey" - sounds like a 'SUN' headline...!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Black Isle on Highland is an awesome name.

    Something out of a TinTin or Sherlock book.


    "Scotter on West Lindsey" - sounds like a 'SUN' headline...!
    I know people who have been arrested for "Croesyceiliog North on Torfaen"
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT:
    TOPPING said:
    » show previous quotes
    haha very funny Mikey. But you prove my point.

    "The People" is straight out of Wolfie Smith.

    And as for the mess the parties have made of Britain - what amazing plans do you jokers have to make it all better?

    very funny Mikey.
    --------------------------
    Oh Topping doesn't like the "People": even makes fun of the people. So what are you around for Topping? Someone to lick your arse.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    MikeK said:

    FPT:
    TOPPING said:
    » show previous quotes
    haha very funny Mikey. But you prove my point.

    "The People" is straight out of Wolfie Smith.

    And as for the mess the parties have made of Britain - what amazing plans do you jokers have to make it all better?

    very funny Mikey.
    --------------------------
    Oh Topping doesn't like the "People": even makes fun of the people. So what are you around for Topping? Someone to lick your arse.

    I know Mike; it needed to be said again on this thread.

    However:

    "So what are you around for Topping? Someone to lick your arse."

    doesn't actually make sense.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Hands up whose having a shandy with Ed?

    Harry Cole‏@MrHarryCole4m
    Seems I am the only person in Britain to be refused a selfie with @Ed_Miliband.


    Andrew Neil‏@afneil6m
    Just left Ed Miliband Christmas party. Promised to get him an economic policy for Christmas.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Black Isle on Highland is an awesome name.

    Something out of a TinTin or Sherlock book.


    "Scotter on West Lindsey" - sounds like a 'SUN' headline...!
    I know people who have been arrested for "Croesyceiliog North on Torfaen"
    Does your mother find your circle of friends err, somewhat worrisome? ; )
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    David Ornstein ‏@bbcsport_david 6m
    BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc

    Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Also Mackay is 66/1 with Skybet to be next Spurs boss.

    I'm on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Black Isle on Highland is an awesome name.

    Something out of a TinTin or Sherlock book.


    "Scotter on West Lindsey" - sounds like a 'SUN' headline...!
    I know people who have been arrested for "Croesyceiliog North on Torfaen"
    Does your mother find your circle of friends err, somewhat worrisome? ; )
    She finds me worrisome!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    That is because the Black Isle is an awesome place, its where some of my ancestors come from. :) On certain days when you drive up to Inverness and look across to the Black Isle you can see where it gets its name from, it can look stunning.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Black Isle on Highland is an awesome name.

    Something out of a TinTin or Sherlock book.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Cardiff City manager Malky Mackay has been told by owner Vincent Tan to resign or he will be sacked.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25457024
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited December 2013
    Cammo and me - bezzie mates... he knows his footie..... unlike that cursed OSR....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25448738
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also Mackay is 66/1 with Skybet to be next Spurs boss.

    I'm on.

    Not again - leave us a-bloody-lone.

    More like AVB at Cardiff ....

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited December 2013
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also Mackay is 66/1 with Skybet to be next Spurs boss.

    I'm on.

    Not again - leave us a-bloody-lone.

    More like AVB at Cardiff ....

    Apparently it is between AVB and Martin Jol for West Brom

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/next-west-brom-manager-avb-2942247
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also Mackay is 66/1 with Skybet to be next Spurs boss.

    I'm on.

    No chance of him being appointed by Spurs but 6/1 he takes over at West Brom is a decent shout
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,343
    fitalass said:

    That is because the Black Isle is an awesome place, its where some of my ancestors come from. :) On certain days when you drive up to Inverness and look across to the Black Isle you can see where it gets its name from, it can look stunning.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Black Isle on Highland is an awesome name.

    Something out of a TinTin or Sherlock book.

    It's a great dark hogback - hence the name - formerly a moor on its crest, now much of it afforested on the higher ground with classical Scottish Lowland high farming around. Great walks along the coast either side, and if you like small burghs full of C18 and C19 vernacular architecture or just history it's paradise. Cromarty in particular was to a large extent frozen in the early 19th century, because of changing transport links (used to have direct sea links to Edinburgh till the trains ran along the other side of the Cromarty Firth ...). Rosemarkie has a lovely museum of Pictish sculpture. And so on. One of the smaller hidden gems of Scotland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cardiff City manager Malky Mackay has been told by owner Vincent Tan to resign or he will be sacked.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25457024

    Grade A constructive dismissal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cardiff City manager Malky Mackay has been told by owner Vincent Tan to resign or he will be sacked.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25457024

    Grade A constructive dismissal.
    I was wondering why Brendan Rodgers gave Vincent Tan both barrels today, this explains a lot.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Cammo and me - bezzie mates... he knows his footie..... unlike that cursed OSR....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25448738


    Hang on, he's predicting Swansea to beat Everton 3-0...... so he's either not so good at this OR he's having a pop at a certain scouser's tim, sorry team.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Skybet have got some interesting markets on the Liverpool v Cardiff match on Saturday

    Luis Suarez Specials

    Luis Suarez to score four or more goals 12/1

    Luis Suarez to score more goals than Cardiff 4/5

    Cardiff to score more goals than Luis Suarez 3/1

    http://www.skybet.com/football/premier-league/event/15997552?aff_id=7945&dcmp=snt-bet-football-1912-SuarezSpecials-TW
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Carnyx said:

    fitalass said:

    That is because the Black Isle is an awesome place, its where some of my ancestors come from. :) On certain days when you drive up to Inverness and look across to the Black Isle you can see where it gets its name from, it can look stunning.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Black Isle on Highland is an awesome name.

    Something out of a TinTin or Sherlock book.

    It's a great dark hogback - hence the name - formerly a moor on its crest, now much of it afforested on the higher ground with classical Scottish Lowland high farming around. Great walks along the coast either side, and if you like small burghs full of C18 and C19 vernacular architecture or just history it's paradise. Cromarty in particular was to a large extent frozen in the early 19th century, because of changing transport links (used to have direct sea links to Edinburgh till the trains ran along the other side of the Cromarty Firth ...). Rosemarkie has a lovely museum of Pictish sculpture. And so on. One of the smaller hidden gems of Scotland.
    Indeed. I once stood at the Sutors of Cromarty and took a panorama of twelve oil rigs in the Firth. An amazing sight, and one that I have not seen before or since.

    Annoyingly, I've never seen dolphins from Chanonry Point, despite it apparently being the best place in the country to see them.

    I've found the people on the Isle to be very friendly as well. It's like the last bastion of civilisation before Inverness. ;-)

    http://www.northernsights.net/oil-rigs-fs.html
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Balcony collapse at Apollo Theatre in central London during performance traps people, eyewitnesses say BBCBreaking
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Rory Smith ‏@RorySmithTimes 25s

    "Malky, I want you to resign." "And if I don't?" "I'll pay up your contract and sack you." Vincent Tan: world's thickest Macchiavelli.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Blimey

    A rescue operation is under way after part of a balcony in the Apollo theatre in central London is thought to have collapsed during a performance, trapping people inside, according to eyewitnesses.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    “Harriet Harman “went crazy” at Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election chief, over his running of the party’s campaign and the role given to women, Labour sources have revealed. The Labour deputy leader also attacked Mr Alexander over plans to limit the party’s efforts in the European elections next May, in the face of scant resources and the expectation of a poor performance.”

    “Ms Harman clashed with Mr Alexander at a private meeting at Labour headquarters on Monday in front of about three dozen staff, who were “shell-shocked” by the exchange, during which she accused him of speaking over her and ignoring her contributions. She interrupted a presentation by Mr Alexander to raise her issues and at one point declared that she was sick of hearing from “more panels full of boys”. She argued with him for several minutes.”


    http://labourlist.org/2013/12/this-row-is-out-in-the-open-and-it-isnt-going-away-any-time-soon/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+LabourListLatestPosts+(LabourList)

    Looks like the Harman went a bit berserk. Maybe she see's the end of Lab/Lib/Con hegemony in the her future.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Skybet have got some interesting markets on the Liverpool v Cardiff match on Saturday

    Luis Suarez Specials

    Luis Suarez to score four or more goals 12/1

    Luis Suarez to score more goals than Cardiff 4/5

    Cardiff to score more goals than Luis Suarez 3/1

    http://www.skybet.com/football/premier-league/event/15997552?aff_id=7945&dcmp=snt-bet-football-1912-SuarezSpecials-TW

    In the Spirit of Christmas & our new camaraderie, I will say I have been a betting odds maker / trader for 13 years, and my speciality is goalscorer markets

    This weekend I make Luis Suarez

    39.1% to score 1st
    74.4% to score anytime
    39.5% to score at least 2
    15.7% to score at least 3
    5% to score at least 4

    Suarez to score more than Cardiff 42%
    Cardiff to score more than Suarez 20%

    Hope it helps

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Skybet have got some interesting markets on the Liverpool v Cardiff match on Saturday

    Luis Suarez Specials

    Luis Suarez to score four or more goals 12/1

    Luis Suarez to score more goals than Cardiff 4/5

    Cardiff to score more goals than Luis Suarez 3/1

    http://www.skybet.com/football/premier-league/event/15997552?aff_id=7945&dcmp=snt-bet-football-1912-SuarezSpecials-TW

    In the Spirit of Christmas & our new camaraderie, I will say I have been a betting odds maker / trader for 13 years, and my speciality is goalscorer markets

    This weekend I make Luis Suarez

    39.1% to score 1st
    74.4% to score anytime
    39.5% to score at least 2
    15.7% to score at least 3
    5% to score at least 4

    Suarez to score more than Cardiff 42%
    Cardiff to score more than Suarez 20%

    Hope it helps

    Thank you.

    I suspect if Mackay survives to Saturday, the Cardiff players are going to put in a performance for their boss.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2013
    Following on from my comment on Mass immigration driving down working class wages, while making employers and immigrants richer, it occurred to me in the bath that maybe Labours introduction of the minimum wage was their half arsed attempt to control the damage they knew they were about to do by allowing uncontrolled accession in 2004...

    Perhaps they thought £6 an hour as a bottom line figure would at least be more than the £3 they knew the Eastern Europeans would work for, and the bosses would be only too happy to pay them?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    MikeK said:

    “Harriet Harman “went crazy” at Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election chief, over his running of the party’s campaign and the role given to women, Labour sources have revealed. The Labour deputy leader also attacked Mr Alexander over plans to limit the party’s efforts in the European elections next May, in the face of scant resources and the expectation of a poor performance.”

    “Ms Harman clashed with Mr Alexander at a private meeting at Labour headquarters on Monday in front of about three dozen staff, who were “shell-shocked” by the exchange, during which she accused him of speaking over her and ignoring her contributions. She interrupted a presentation by Mr Alexander to raise her issues and at one point declared that she was sick of hearing from “more panels full of boys”. She argued with him for several minutes.”


    http://labourlist.org/2013/12/this-row-is-out-in-the-open-and-it-isnt-going-away-any-time-soon/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+LabourListLatestPosts+(LabourList)

    Looks like the Harman went a bit berserk. Maybe she see's the end of Lab/Lib/Con hegemony in the her future.

    Harman is guilty of blatant anti-male sexism in her hate filled outburst. It's high time that she was put out.to grass.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My lunch options today were Kangaroo, Ostrich or Reindeer.

    I chose Ostrich.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Skybet have got some interesting markets on the Liverpool v Cardiff match on Saturday

    Luis Suarez Specials

    Luis Suarez to score four or more goals 12/1

    Luis Suarez to score more goals than Cardiff 4/5

    Cardiff to score more goals than Luis Suarez 3/1

    http://www.skybet.com/football/premier-league/event/15997552?aff_id=7945&dcmp=snt-bet-football-1912-SuarezSpecials-TW

    In the Spirit of Christmas & our new camaraderie, I will say I have been a betting odds maker / trader for 13 years, and my speciality is goalscorer markets

    This weekend I make Luis Suarez

    39.1% to score 1st
    74.4% to score anytime
    39.5% to score at least 2
    15.7% to score at least 3
    5% to score at least 4

    Suarez to score more than Cardiff 42%
    Cardiff to score more than Suarez 20%

    Hope it helps

    Thank you.

    I suspect if Mackay survives to Saturday, the Cardiff players are going to put in a performance for their boss.
    Looking at oddschecker the bets seem to be

    1st goal at 2/1
    anytime at 5/12
    2 or more at 2/1
    & Hat Trick at 8/1


    Should ask Sky bet if you can back the Suarez vs Cardiff Draw at 2/1 or bigger!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Harman is having a good week, plenty of coverage in The Mail, then winner of the ranting politician of the week. Perhaps going for another mention on Guido.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited December 2013
    BBC coverage of Apollo Theatre referring to partial collapse of ceiling or roof.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    BBC webpage refers to collapse of part of a dome.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25458009
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Terrible news. I was there a few years ago for a performance of Bombay Nights.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Skybet have got some interesting markets on the Liverpool v Cardiff match on Saturday

    Luis Suarez Specials

    Luis Suarez to score four or more goals 12/1

    Luis Suarez to score more goals than Cardiff 4/5

    Cardiff to score more goals than Luis Suarez 3/1

    http://www.skybet.com/football/premier-league/event/15997552?aff_id=7945&dcmp=snt-bet-football-1912-SuarezSpecials-TW

    In the Spirit of Christmas & our new camaraderie, I will say I have been a betting odds maker / trader for 13 years, and my speciality is goalscorer markets

    This weekend I make Luis Suarez

    39.1% to score 1st
    74.4% to score anytime
    39.5% to score at least 2
    15.7% to score at least 3
    5% to score at least 4

    Suarez to score more than Cardiff 42%
    Cardiff to score more than Suarez 20%

    Hope it helps

    Thank you.

    I suspect if Mackay survives to Saturday, the Cardiff players are going to put in a performance for their boss.
    ***CORRECTION***


    I make

    Suarez to beat Cardiff 52%
    Cardiff to beat Suarez 16%
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25458009

    Looks like The Apollo Roof has collapsed, making for a greater tragedy than at first suspected.

    My wife saw the Windrush show at this theatre.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25458009

    Looks like The Apollo Roof has collapsed, making for a greater tragedy than at first suspected.

    My wife saw the Windrush show at this theatre.

    Think I've saw VNV there back about a decade ago :/
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    AndyJS said:

    My lunch options today were Kangaroo, Ostrich or Reindeer.

    I chose Ostrich.

    Reindeer is very tasty. In Sweden you can get smoked reindeer which is made rather like raw ham or bresaola - it is gorgeous. But reindeer steak is nice as well.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 2m
    RT @LondonFire: Live from spokesman on scene: all casualties who were trapped have been freed #soho>at last some good news
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Cammo and me - bezzie mates... he knows his footie..... unlike that cursed OSR....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25448738


    Hang on, he's predicting Swansea to beat Everton 3-0...... so he's either not so good at this OR he's having a pop at a certain scouser's tim, sorry team.
    Mr Heap, Cameron has predicted Everton win 3-1 and the troops go Swansea 3-0.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News says 65 injuries, 5 serious:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1185016/apollo-theatre-collapse-causes-injuries
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Harman is guilty of blatant anti-male sexism in her hate filled outburst. It's high time that she was put out.to grass.

    She's just playing into the stereotype that she's trying to rubbish.

    I realise that progress is patchy, but wasn't Chile an all female affair electorally?

    Feminism now, and racism perhaps too, are washed up as political mantras. That's not to say that there won't be pockets of resistance, but the mainstream has moved on. I'd even hope that 'poverty', at least in the UK has moved away from the political stage.

    If this is so then it is an undoubted political achievement - politics doesn't have claim to many really. Such achievement is worth a great deal.

    Labour have to get away from some of that baggage. Awards in the cupboard are far better than manifestos with still one burning issue that's not been fixed for 100 years.

  • Ned_HNed_H Posts: 5
    Finally managed to get a username! Ok I thought that the odds of 8/15 for Ed M leaving his post after July 2015 looked good (on this page: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/mp-exit-dates/ed-miliband)

    but when I click i get taken to this page: http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101710557&mpch=ads&rfr=63 which says I can 'back' that outcome at 1.1 which I think is odds of 1/10.

    There is only £30 available, I think, so it's not the end of the world if I can't bet but it is a bit confusing - is there something wrong with oddschecker?
  • Ned_HNed_H Posts: 5
    btw it would be my first 'political bet' - I have decided to start risking some money after being too lazy to make what I correctly assumed would be quick profits on Royal Mail & Twitter.
  • Ned_HNed_H Posts: 5
    and finally, does anyone know of a market on Hornsey & Wood Green?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    compouter1 said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Cammo and me - bezzie mates... he knows his footie..... unlike that cursed OSR....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25448738


    Hang on, he's predicting Swansea to beat Everton 3-0...... so he's either not so good at this OR he's having a pop at a certain scouser's tim, sorry team.
    Mr Heap, Cameron has predicted Everton win 3-1 and the troops go Swansea 3-0.
    Not in the table?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 14s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Last poll of the year sees Labour with a five point lead: CON 34%, LAB 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    compouter1 said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Cammo and me - bezzie mates... he knows his footie..... unlike that cursed OSR....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25448738


    Hang on, he's predicting Swansea to beat Everton 3-0...... so he's either not so good at this OR he's having a pop at a certain scouser's tim, sorry team.
    Mr Heap, Cameron has predicted Everton win 3-1 and the troops go Swansea 3-0.
    Not in the table?
    As ever, always look below the headlines to see the truth ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Ned_H said:

    and finally, does anyone know of a market on Hornsey & Wood Green?

    Hi Ned

    You can Request prices from Paddy Power
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!


    One to go for Avery LP before the polling crossover goalposts go walkabout.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    I did so for Torbay, but they matched my assesment of the seat ;)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    Ned_H said:

    There is only £30 available

    Political betting is a slow and steady game. £30 at a good price isn't too bad.

    The EdM exit market on BF for jul2015 or later is 1.69/2.1 - that equates to a chance of between 63% and 48%.

    There is no standard on political bets, so what seems like the same market can often be radically different. Betfair (for example) recently voided all bets on the next GE date.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705
    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!


    One to go for Avery LP before the polling crossover goalposts go walkabout.

    Clearly there is a crossover.

    UKIP 12%
    LD 11%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited December 2013
    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015
    #COMRES
    Who has the best policy on Eastern European Immigration?
    #UKIP 24%
    #CONSERVATIVES 15%
    #LABOUR 15%
    #LIBDEMS 5%
    DON'T KNOW 38%
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited December 2013
    MikeL said:

    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
    Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    MikeK said:

    General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015
    #COMRES
    Who has the best policy on Eastern European Immigration?
    #UKIP 24%
    #CONSERVATIVES 15%
    #LABOUR 15%
    #LIBDEMS 5%
    DON'T KNOW 38%

    So much for the Tories' cringing attempts to appease tabloid xenophobia. The only party that benefits when immigration rises up the agenda is UKIP.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Just had an interesting experience. Went for a late lunch, (salad followed by shrimp and grits with andouille sausage today), and paid with my American Express card, as I always do.

    The lady behind the bar swiped my card and handed it back to me (I was siiting in my usual seat next to the cash register at the bar), and as I took it back - 10 seconds at most after swiping - the Amex app on my Galaxy s3 popped up and asked if I'd like to use my amex points to pay for my 'current dining event', and showing the transaction details.

    Kinda cool yet kind of unsettling.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    Mike posted the other day about the 'Tory majority' price being wrong. I'm not sure it is. An election conducted today would see Labour with a majority. In 2015 though the economic state-of-play will be different, and the odds for the next GE are all about that time.

    What's interesting though is whether economic improvement such as we've seen recently actually translates into a narrowing gap. There is probably a little more to come, but for the Tories to stand a chance of a majority the recent economic good news has to start to show in the polls. Interesting times.

    (A cure for wrong-headedness would help too of course, but that's just my view)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    My own analysis shows that on average, Lab's share of the vote has fallen by 5% since this time last year.

    But the Con share of the vote has gone up 2%, UKIP have generally ended up with the rest.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Tim_B said:

    Just had an interesting experience. Went for a late lunch, (salad followed by shrimp and grits with andouille sausage today), and paid with my American Express card, as I always do.

    The lady behind the bar swiped my card and handed it back to me (I was siiting in my usual seat next to the cash register at the bar), and as I took it back - 10 seconds at most after swiping - the Amex app on my Galaxy s3 popped up and asked if I'd like to use my amex points to pay for my 'current dining event', and showing the transaction details.

    Kinda cool yet kind of unsettling.

    Tim

    Why do Americans have "dining events" rather than "meals" or "dinner"?

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Tim_B said:

    Just had an interesting experience. Went for a late lunch, (salad followed by shrimp and grits with andouille sausage today), and paid with my American Express card, as I always do.

    The lady behind the bar swiped my card and handed it back to me (I was siiting in my usual seat next to the cash register at the bar), and as I took it back - 10 seconds at most after swiping - the Amex app on my Galaxy s3 popped up and asked if I'd like to use my amex points to pay for my 'current dining event', and showing the transaction details.

    Kinda cool yet kind of unsettling.

    Or when your mobile phone, unbidden, tells you how long it will take to get to the last place you searched for on Google Maps on your work PC.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    Tim_B said:

    Just had an interesting experience. Went for a late lunch, (salad followed by shrimp and grits with andouille sausage today), and paid with my American Express card, as I always do.

    The lady behind the bar swiped my card and handed it back to me (I was siiting in my usual seat next to the cash register at the bar), and as I took it back - 10 seconds at most after swiping - the Amex app on my Galaxy s3 popped up and asked if I'd like to use my amex points to pay for my 'current dining event', and showing the transaction details.

    Kinda cool yet kind of unsettling.

    Lol, capitalist Big Bro is watching you.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does YouGov conduct polls between 20th and 31st December?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    compouter1 said:

    MikeL said:

    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
    Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
    You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Our intelligence services haven't got the best headline in the Mirror.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    I'm still going for Labour Minority. But I think JackW's ARSE may well turn out to be right !
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My own analysis shows that on average, Lab's share of the vote has fallen by 5% since this time last year.

    But the Con share of the vote has gone up 2%, UKIP have generally ended up with the rest.

    Compared to the last Yougov for the Sun before last Xmas Lab are down 2% and the Tory Party is up 1%.....no?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    compouter1 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My own analysis shows that on average, Lab's share of the vote has fallen by 5% since this time last year.

    But the Con share of the vote has gone up 2%, UKIP have generally ended up with the rest.

    Compared to the last Yougov for the Sun before last Xmas Lab are down 2% and the Tory Party is up 1%.....no?

    I'm talking about polling averages across all posters.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Makeup genius Joseph Harwood is back with another YouTube video:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfmcNeWlAp0
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited December 2013
    nigel4england said:

    compouter1 said:

    MikeL said:

    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
    Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
    You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
    Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people with the vast majority of posters whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?

    Someone will have to explain to me how it will make me LOOK stupid.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Pulpstar

    "But I think JackW's ARSE may well turn out to be right"

    Many have postulated JackW is a right arse,
    I have more respect for my elders to even speculate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    compouter1 said:

    nigel4england said:

    compouter1 said:

    MikeL said:

    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
    Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
    You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
    Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people of whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?

    Come join us at Dirty Dicks, Cheltenham or the TdF meet at some pt ;)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    compouter1 said:

    nigel4england said:

    compouter1 said:

    MikeL said:

    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
    Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
    You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
    Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people of whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?

    It matters little to us what you get cross over, Compouter.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Hopefully there will be no fatalities at the Apollo, especially after the "Clutha".
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Labour were on 43% Con on 33% in Dec for Sun Times in 2012.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/to3chqefhc/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-21-231212.pdf

  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    AveryLP said:

    compouter1 said:

    nigel4england said:

    compouter1 said:

    MikeL said:

    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
    Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
    You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
    Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people of whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?

    It matters little to us what you get cross over, Compouter.

    If Sunday's poll still shows a Labour lead, I will get hold of the left post and you get hold of the right post(obvioulsy) and you can tell me where you want to place them again.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    AveryLP said:

    Why do Americans have "dining events" rather than "meals" or "dinner"?

    So long as lunch, dinner, tea, and supper can be ordered and what turns up can satisfy an Englishman then surely there's no concern. If you can somehow mention 'pudding' early in the conversation it throws all other nationalities onto the back-foot. Happily then you can pick and choose of their finest dishes in an arrangement that suits you. Once they have recovered from the 'pudding' word it only remains for you to graciously accept their fine sweet tasting dishes as an apologetic replacement for the dish that you never really wanted anyway.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Smarmeron said:

    Hopefully there will be no fatalities at the Apollo, especially after the "Clutha".

    It must have a great performance, to bring the house down...
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    dr_spyn said:

    Labour were on 43% Con on 33% in Dec for Sun Times in 2012.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/to3chqefhc/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-21-231212.pdf

    We haven't had the Times poll for Sunday yet, unless you know something different?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    RodCrosby said:

    Smarmeron said:

    Hopefully there will be no fatalities at the Apollo, especially after the "Clutha".

    It must have a great performance, to bring the house down...
    Sick, yet amusing ;)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Re the killers of Lee Rigby - obsolete Dutch revolver, which caused damage to one of them. Good job they didn't have access to AK47s or something modern and rapid firing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Average Dec 2012 YouGov

    Con 31.82, Lab 43.06, LD 10.06, UKIP 9.44, Average Lab Lead 11.25

    Average Dec 2013 YouGov

    Con 33.12, Lab 39.07, LD 9.36, UKIP 12, Average Lab Lead 5.86

    Changes on the year

    Con +1.40

    Lab -3.99

    LD -0.70

    UKIP +2.56

    Average Lab Lead -5.39
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Ornstein ‏@bbcsport_david 6m
    BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc

    Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power

    Not a good time to be a bluebirds, or indeed a Spurs fan!
    Utter madness. Was at match Saturday. Little did I know that it would be Mackay's last home game.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    Pulpstar said:

    compouter1 said:

    nigel4england said:

    compouter1 said:

    MikeL said:

    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
    Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
    You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
    Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people of whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?

    Come join us at Dirty Dicks, Cheltenham or the TdF meet at some pt ;)
    Maybe.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @RodCrosby Reminds me of "Apart from that Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Depressing to see most of the councils listed have no genuine opposition they are so dominated by one party. Standard, I know, but still depressing.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited December 2013
    AveryLP said:

    Tim_B said:

    Just had an interesting experience. Went for a late lunch, (salad followed by shrimp and grits with andouille sausage today), and paid with my American Express card, as I always do.

    The lady behind the bar swiped my card and handed it back to me (I was siiting in my usual seat next to the cash register at the bar), and as I took it back - 10 seconds at most after swiping - the Amex app on my Galaxy s3 popped up and asked if I'd like to use my amex points to pay for my 'current dining event', and showing the transaction details.

    Kinda cool yet kind of unsettling.

    Tim

    Why do Americans have "dining events" rather than "meals" or "dinner"?

    Because every meal should be a meaningful dining experience :-)

    Probably more to the point the phrase covers everything from a meal at the Waldorf Astoria to a trip to McDonalds for a McRib sandwich. It's a clumsy but all encompassing phrase.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    valleyboy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Ornstein ‏@bbcsport_david 6m
    BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc

    Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power

    Not a good time to be a bluebirds, or indeed a Spurs fan!
    Utter madness. Was at match Saturday. Little did I know that it would be Mackay's last home game.
    On quite a few Liverpool forums, there's been quite a few Cardiff City fans turning up and saying along the lines

    "This is how bad Vincent Tan is, we're actually cheering and agreeing with what a former Swansea manager (Brendan Rodgers) said today"
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Omnium said:

    AveryLP said:

    Why do Americans have "dining events" rather than "meals" or "dinner"?

    So long as lunch, dinner, tea, and supper can be ordered and what turns up can satisfy an Englishman then surely there's no concern. If you can somehow mention 'pudding' early in the conversation it throws all other nationalities onto the back-foot. Happily then you can pick and choose of their finest dishes in an arrangement that suits you. Once they have recovered from the 'pudding' word it only remains for you to graciously accept their fine sweet tasting dishes as an apologetic replacement for the dish that you never really wanted anyway.

    In such circumstances, an Englishman should patiently explain to Johnny Foreigner the exact meaning of "pudding", giving plentiful examples and repeating the key points as if called upon to explain the Rules of Cricket.

    Once you are satisfied that all at the table now understand, you then order a Steak and Kidney pudding.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @compouter1 No inside info re next poll, just wondered by how much Labour's lead had changed over 12 months. From c. +10 to c. +5, not a great achievement for team Ed over the year.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    compouter1 said:

    AveryLP said:

    compouter1 said:

    nigel4england said:

    compouter1 said:

    MikeL said:

    compouter1 said:

    Yougov :

    Lab 39%
    Con 34%
    L Dem 11%
    Ukip 12%

    Crossover.........SHOW ME THE CROSSOVER!

    No crossover yet but the lead is tightening. YouGov average Lab lead for the last 9 weeks (ie each figure is average of the 5 YouGov polls for the week) - oldest week first:

    6.4
    7.0
    6.2
    7.8
    6.6
    7.2
    7.4
    5.2
    4.75 = this week - first 4 polls, one poll to come

    So lead was very steady at around 7% until 2 weeks ago. Then last week and this week it's tightened.
    Tonights takes it to 4.8 for the week, however they are all within MOE. As always the fact Labour are still between 37-40% and have been within moe for most of the last three years still makes me think that Labour will have a workable majority.
    You are going to look pretty stupid if they don't.
    Do you think I will be more upset that Labour don't make government or the fact my long standing prediction on a messageboard that I interact with people of whom I have never met or will not meet in the future, will be incorrect?

    It matters little to us what you get cross over, Compouter.

    If Sunday's poll still shows a Labour lead, I will get hold of the left post and you get hold of the right post(obvioulsy) and you can tell me where you want to place them again.
    My predictions are like St George's fiscal mandates, compouter.

    They are rolling forward forecasts.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    AveryLP said:

    Omnium said:

    AveryLP said:

    Why do Americans have "dining events" rather than "meals" or "dinner"?

    So long as lunch, dinner, tea, and supper can be ordered and what turns up can satisfy an Englishman then surely there's no concern. If you can somehow mention 'pudding' early in the conversation it throws all other nationalities onto the back-foot. Happily then you can pick and choose of their finest dishes in an arrangement that suits you. Once they have recovered from the 'pudding' word it only remains for you to graciously accept their fine sweet tasting dishes as an apologetic replacement for the dish that you never really wanted anyway.

    In such circumstances, an Englishman should patiently explain to Johnny Foreigner the exact meaning of "pudding", giving plentiful examples and repeating the key points as if called upon to explain the Rules of Cricket.

    Once you are satisfied that all at the table now understand, you then order a Steak and Kidney pudding.


    Quite!

    I'm grinning from ear to ear.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    valleyboy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Ornstein ‏@bbcsport_david 6m
    BREAKING: Tan tells Mackay resign or be sacked. Tan emailed explosive letter to Mackay on Mon listing grievances. Story across BBC now #ccfc

    Best odds on Mackay as next manager out 2/5 with Coral and Paddy Power

    Not a good time to be a bluebirds, or indeed a Spurs fan!
    Utter madness. Was at match Saturday. Little did I know that it would be Mackay's last home game.
    On quite a few Liverpool forums, there's been quite a few Cardiff City fans turning up and saying along the lines

    "This is how bad Vincent Tan is, we're actually cheering and agreeing with what a former Swansea manager (Brendan Rodgers) said today"
    Yes it comes to something when the owner has us City fans agreeing with a former Swans manager. Total chaos. I expect a major thumping at Anfield Saturday.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @AveryLP or call for the haggis, the great chieftain o' the pudding race.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Other polling statgasm.

    Every YouGov poll in December 2012, Labour polled 40+ in all 16 of them.

    Labour have only polled 40+ in 4 out of the 16 YouGov polls in December 2013

This discussion has been closed.