Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s reported admiration for Trump won’t look smart if Bi

1356

Comments

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    All the people losing their minds over the fact the UK is setting UK laws ... Boris is just sticking to his words before the election. Remember this?

    https://youtu.be/d7NFfUOJwDE

    Keeping his promise.

    Keeping promises and accepting the consequences are two different things. I fully expect Boris to have cleared off to the US within a few years.
    His ambition was always to be first UK PM and then US President.....would still be on the cards if he could be bothered to pay his taxes.
    Hasn’t stopped Trump
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066

    ahem
    The Glorious Revolution came at the invitation of Westminster to get rid of a Catholic King who fled to exile in the court of the French King Louis XIVth
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464

    All the people losing their minds over the fact the UK is setting UK laws ... Boris is just sticking to his words before the election. Remember this?

    https://youtu.be/d7NFfUOJwDE

    Keeping his promise.

    Keeping promises and accepting the consequences are two different things. I fully expect Boris to have cleared off to the US within a few years.
    His ambition was always to be first UK PM and then US President.....would still be on the cards if he could be bothered to pay his taxes.
    Interesting thought there; wonder how 'in order' Boris' tax affairs actually are. He has had, after all, a lot of self-employed income. Lot of investments too, although they're probably off-shore, in the Cayman's or somewhere like that.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    But you'll have weakened our southern defences by deploying most of the troops to Scotland...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    Mango said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    But you'll have weakened our southern defences by deploying most of the troops to Scotland...
    Scotland is less than a tenth of the UK and about half Scots are Unionists, Sturgeon could be defeated as easily as Bonnie Prince Charlie was
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The UK is an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066? That's a turn up for the history books and no mistake.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    Mango said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    But you'll have weakened our southern defences by deploying most of the troops to Scotland...
    Lot of Martello towers still standing, though! On the negative side, Francois would be encouraged to re-form the Home Guard!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The UK is an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066? That's a turn up for the history books and no mistake.
    Don't think Barnier and Von Der Leyen will succeed where Philip IInd, Napoleon and Hitler failed
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    All the people losing their minds over the fact the UK is setting UK laws ... Boris is just sticking to his words before the election. Remember this?

    https://youtu.be/d7NFfUOJwDE

    Keeping his promise.

    The UK Gov't can do what it likes domestically.
    Keeping your word in international relations/treaties/agreements has a soft power value which surely we're looking for in the post-Brexit world though ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The EU and its members won't go to actual war for this, as their predecessors probably would have done. My point is directed at those that say international law is meaningless and everyone has a sovereign right to do what they want. Respectable countries don't unilaterally break treaties, for very good reasons.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066

    ahem
    The Glorious Revolution came at the invitation of Westminster to get rid of a Catholic King who fled to exile in the court of the French King Louis XIVth
    IANAHistorian but it was like 7 dudes, it's not as if the whole of parliament voted to be invaded, and even if it was it would still have been a successful invasion.

    Invasions are often done this way, you recognize some local opposition group as the legitimate government and use your invading army to put them (and you) in power.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The UK is an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066? That's a turn up for the history books and no mistake.
    Don't think Barnier and Von Der Leyen will succeed where Philip IInd, Napoleon and Hitler failed
    Please tell me more of this inviolable UK island nation that has existed since 1066.
  • Barnesian said:

    There is a deal to be done that respects UK sovereignty and is in the interests of both parties.

    Currently standards and regulations are aligned and there is a LPF which is a great start.

    1. Both parties agree that the other party shall [participate]/[contribute] in any proposals to change standards or regulations. (This is to enable each party's concerns to be properly taken into account by the other party).

    2. Both parties agree that if either party decides to change standards or regulations, it will give the other party [12] months notice. (This is to enable the other party to decide whether the change is acceptable and, if not, make appropriate preparations).

    3. Both parties agree that if any such change is deemed to be unacceptable by the other party, that party will formally declare that to be the case and the Agreement on zero tariiffs and no inspections will cease [12] months after such a declaration. (This is to give adequate time to prepare for the end of the Agreement).

    This preserves frictionless trade and avoids the rule maker/rule taker argument and respects UK (and EU) sovereignty and interests. It also avoids a border in the Irish Sea and respects the WDA.

    Absolutely unacceptable.

    There is no way it is reasonable to give 12 months notice of each and every law or tax change. Remember the EU is willing to define tax changes as "state aid".
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mango said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    But you'll have weakened our southern defences by deploying most of the troops to Scotland...
    Lot of Martello towers still standing, though! On the negative side, Francois would be encouraged to re-form the Home Guard!
    That's old thinking. Dom is working on a world beating British version of Unit 731.
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I call peak PB Tory insanity.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    Barnesian said:

    There is a deal to be done that respects UK sovereignty and is in the interests of both parties.

    Currently standards and regulations are aligned and there is a LPF which is a great start.

    1. Both parties agree that the other party shall [participate]/[contribute] in any proposals to change standards or regulations. (This is to enable each party's concerns to be properly taken into account by the other party).

    2. Both parties agree that if either party decides to change standards or regulations, it will give the other party [12] months notice. (This is to enable the other party to decide whether the change is acceptable and, if not, make appropriate preparations).

    3. Both parties agree that if any such change is deemed to be unacceptable by the other party, that party will formally declare that to be the case and the Agreement on zero tariiffs and no inspections will cease [12] months after such a declaration. (This is to give adequate time to prepare for the end of the Agreement).

    This preserves frictionless trade and avoids the rule maker/rule taker argument and respects UK (and EU) sovereignty and interests. It also avoids a border in the Irish Sea and respects the WDA.

    How do we vote for the Barnesian party?
    I'm surprised the negotiators aren't exploring something like this which is a win/win for both sides and negotiable within the time frame. Instead they are waving their willies for domestic consumption.

    Actually I don't think Barnier is but he could be more flexible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The UK is an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066? That's a turn up for the history books and no mistake.
    Don't think Barnier and Von Der Leyen will succeed where Philip IInd, Napoleon and Hitler failed
    Please tell me more of this inviolable UK island nation that has existed since 1066.
    OK, England and Scotland and Wales and Ireland have not been successfully invaded from outside the British islands since 1066 then if you really want to be pedantic
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2020
    I see the colonel of the Strangelove Volunteer Sturmbrigade Epping Forest is having one of his fits. You’d think Eleanor would have a wee word.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The UK is an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066? That's a turn up for the history books and no mistake.
    Don't think Barnier and Von Der Leyen will succeed where Philip IInd, Napoleon and Hitler failed
    Please tell me more of this inviolable UK island nation that has existed since 1066.
    OK, England and Scotland and Wales and Ireland have not been successfully invaded from outside the British islands since 1066 then if you really want to be pedantic
    Yes they have. William and Mary. 🤦‍♂️
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The UK is an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066? That's a turn up for the history books and no mistake.
    Don't think Barnier and Von Der Leyen will succeed where Philip IInd, Napoleon and Hitler failed
    Please tell me more of this inviolable UK island nation that has existed since 1066.
    OK, England and Scotland and Wales and Ireland have not been successfully invaded from outside the British islands since 1066 then if you really want to be pedantic
    Hardly pedantic. We aren't an island singular nation singular. We are islands nations. No wonder your boy is such a crap unionist
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    HYUFD said:

    an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066

    ahem
    And, of course, between those dates:

    Louis' invasion of England
  • FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The EU and its members won't go to actual war for this, as their predecessors probably would have done. My point is directed at those that say international law is meaningless and everyone has a sovereign right to do what they want. Respectable countries don't unilaterally break treaties, for very good reasons.
    I keep making this very point.

    Am I correct in asserting that the UK has never unilaterally broken a treaty it has freely entered into? I do say this on occasion because I have never found a counter example to disprove it but have always wondered if this is 100% true as I believe.
  • HYUFD said:

    an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066

    ahem
    And, of course, between those dates:

    Louis' invasion of England
    TIL
  • So will people now STFU about a border in the Irish Sea?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    Barnesian said:

    There is a deal to be done that respects UK sovereignty and is in the interests of both parties.

    Currently standards and regulations are aligned and there is a LPF which is a great start.

    1. Both parties agree that the other party shall [participate]/[contribute] in any proposals to change standards or regulations. (This is to enable each party's concerns to be properly taken into account by the other party).

    2. Both parties agree that if either party decides to change standards or regulations, it will give the other party [12] months notice. (This is to enable the other party to decide whether the change is acceptable and, if not, make appropriate preparations).

    3. Both parties agree that if any such change is deemed to be unacceptable by the other party, that party will formally declare that to be the case and the Agreement on zero tariiffs and no inspections will cease [12] months after such a declaration. (This is to give adequate time to prepare for the end of the Agreement).

    This preserves frictionless trade and avoids the rule maker/rule taker argument and respects UK (and EU) sovereignty and interests. It also avoids a border in the Irish Sea and respects the WDA.

    Absolutely unacceptable.

    There is no way it is reasonable to give 12 months notice of each and every law or tax change. Remember the EU is willing to define tax changes as "state aid".
    Note I put the 12 in brackets and that it applies to both parties. The word "change" could be substantial or material and tightly defined and it would apply to both parties.

    You will note that my proposal is symmetrical to both parties and treats the UK as an equal party. It is respectful.

    To say "Absolutely unacceptable" straight out is an illustration of the problem. You're not related to Ian Paisley by any chance? :)
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    There is a deal to be done that respects UK sovereignty and is in the interests of both parties.

    Currently standards and regulations are aligned and there is a LPF which is a great start.

    1. Both parties agree that the other party shall [participate]/[contribute] in any proposals to change standards or regulations. (This is to enable each party's concerns to be properly taken into account by the other party).

    2. Both parties agree that if either party decides to change standards or regulations, it will give the other party [12] months notice. (This is to enable the other party to decide whether the change is acceptable and, if not, make appropriate preparations).

    3. Both parties agree that if any such change is deemed to be unacceptable by the other party, that party will formally declare that to be the case and the Agreement on zero tariiffs and no inspections will cease [12] months after such a declaration. (This is to give adequate time to prepare for the end of the Agreement).

    This preserves frictionless trade and avoids the rule maker/rule taker argument and respects UK (and EU) sovereignty and interests. It also avoids a border in the Irish Sea and respects the WDA.

    Absolutely unacceptable.

    There is no way it is reasonable to give 12 months notice of each and every law or tax change. Remember the EU is willing to define tax changes as "state aid".
    Note I put the 12 in brackets and that it applies to both parties. The word "change" could be substantial or material and tightly defined and it would apply to both parties.

    You will note that my proposal is symmetrical to both parties and treats the UK as an equal party. It is respectful.

    To say "Absolutely unacceptable" straight out is an illustration of the problem. You're not related to Ian Paisley by any chance? :)
    It is probably also worth pointing out that very few tax changes - beyond duties on things like alcohol, tobacco and petrol - come into effect immediately. There is always usually a gap of several months or more before they actually take effect (usually the start of the next financial year) so a delay of 12 months is not exactly earth shattering.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    We’re back to this old chestnut again are we? Quelle surprise. There was even a time when even the Brexiteers just about accepted this wasn’t a runner, hence all the talk about “technological solutions” etc.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The EU and its members won't go to actual war for this, as their predecessors probably would have done. My point is directed at those that say international law is meaningless and everyone has a sovereign right to do what they want. Respectable countries don't unilaterally break treaties, for very good reasons.
    I keep making this very point.

    Am I correct in asserting that the UK has never unilaterally broken a treaty it has freely entered into? I do say this on occasion because I have never found a counter example to disprove it but have always wondered if this is 100% true as I believe.
    Of course the UK/England has broken treaties.
    They're not known as Perfidious Albion for nothing.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    There is a deal to be done that respects UK sovereignty and is in the interests of both parties.

    Currently standards and regulations are aligned and there is a LPF which is a great start.

    1. Both parties agree that the other party shall [participate]/[contribute] in any proposals to change standards or regulations. (This is to enable each party's concerns to be properly taken into account by the other party).

    2. Both parties agree that if either party decides to change standards or regulations, it will give the other party [12] months notice. (This is to enable the other party to decide whether the change is acceptable and, if not, make appropriate preparations).

    3. Both parties agree that if any such change is deemed to be unacceptable by the other party, that party will formally declare that to be the case and the Agreement on zero tariiffs and no inspections will cease [12] months after such a declaration. (This is to give adequate time to prepare for the end of the Agreement).

    This preserves frictionless trade and avoids the rule maker/rule taker argument and respects UK (and EU) sovereignty and interests. It also avoids a border in the Irish Sea and respects the WDA.

    Absolutely unacceptable.

    There is no way it is reasonable to give 12 months notice of each and every law or tax change. Remember the EU is willing to define tax changes as "state aid".
    Note I put the 12 in brackets and that it applies to both parties. The word "change" could be substantial or material and tightly defined and it would apply to both parties.

    You will note that my proposal is symmetrical to both parties and treats the UK as an equal party. It is respectful.

    To say "Absolutely unacceptable" straight out is an illustration of the problem. You're not related to Ian Paisley by any chance? :)
    No I'm not but it doesn't matter how symmetrical it is. The EU would find it equally unacceptable for the same reason.

    Your first two points are redundant anyway, there's no reason why we can't just agree the third and be done with it.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    He must be shitting himself worrying about this Wednesday and seeing Starmer across the aisle.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    There’s no need to fire a shot just close all EU ports and airports to UK traffic.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    As if we go to WTO terms Brexit there would still be tariffs on goods coming from the EU (which would include from the Republic of Ireland) to GB however Northern Ireland along with the rest of the UK left the EU in January
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The UK is an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066? That's a turn up for the history books and no mistake.
    Don't think Barnier and Von Der Leyen will succeed where Philip IInd, Napoleon and Hitler failed
    Please tell me more of this inviolable UK island nation that has existed since 1066.
    OK, England and Scotland and Wales and Ireland have not been successfully invaded from outside the British islands since 1066 then if you really want to be pedantic
    Actually the constituent nations of that relatively recent construct the UK have been invaded quite a lot, mainly by the the big fat lump in the bottom half of mainland Britain.
  • kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    For the same reason we check passports at Dover but not in NI.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    nichomar said:

    All the people losing their minds over the fact the UK is setting UK laws ... Boris is just sticking to his words before the election. Remember this?

    https://youtu.be/d7NFfUOJwDE

    Keeping his promise.

    Keeping promises and accepting the consequences are two different things. I fully expect Boris to have cleared off to the US within a few years.
    His ambition was always to be first UK PM and then US President.....would still be on the cards if he could be bothered to pay his taxes.
    Hasn’t stopped Trump
    There is that.
    Then again, Trump didn't renounce his citizenship to avoid tax.

    The Irish thing is a nod in that direction - 'the rules don't apply to us'. Like Trump, we're going to find out if that is a sustainable proposition.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,562
    edited September 2020
    kamski said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    The EU and its members won't go to actual war for this, as their predecessors probably would have done. My point is directed at those that say international law is meaningless and everyone has a sovereign right to do what they want. Respectable countries don't unilaterally break treaties, for very good reasons.
    I keep making this very point.

    Am I correct in asserting that the UK has never unilaterally broken a treaty it has freely entered into? I do say this on occasion because I have never found a counter example to disprove it but have always wondered if this is 100% true as I believe.
    Of course the UK/England has broken treaties.
    They're not known as Perfidious Albion for nothing.
    Note I was talking about the UK so post 1800s. And care to give me any examples?

    Edited to correct from 1700s to 1800s for UK. But still anything post 1700s okay.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
  • I still don't feel that I know what the government's priorities are in the negotiations with the EU, so this makes it hard to predict what they will do next.

    I find it hard to take the threat of no deal seriously because (1) we've done sod all to prepare for it, and (2) we've failed to follow through on previous threats. Perhaps this time there really will be wolves.

    My current assumption then is that the British government is throwing up a smokescreen of threats and bluster to cover an orderly retreat.

    A negotiation always involves a degree of compromise and the chief problem has always been to sell compromise to the ERG extreme as a complete victory.

    A difficulty arises in that EU leaders are weary of the necessary theatre, and distracted by other concerns. It might have been easier for them to make the necessary compromises in negotiations over a longer period of time, rather than compressed for the purpose of obscuring the compromise from extreme Brexiter attention.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    HYUFD said:



    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed


  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    When did Hitler try to invade the UK?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    As if we go to WTO terms Brexit there would still be tariffs on goods coming from the EU (which would include from the Republic of Ireland) to GB however Northern Ireland along with the rest of the UK left the EU in January
    Well exactly. I have no idea what your point it. Why do we put a border at one place and not the other?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066

    ahem
    And, of course, between those dates:

    Louis' invasion of England
    Not successful, the French Prince Louis' army was beaten at the Battle of Lincoln in 1217, the French invasion fleet commanded by his wife Blanche of Castile was then also defeated at the Battle of Sandwich.

    At the Treaty of Lambeth Louis surrendered any castles he had captured and accepted he had never been a legitimate King of England and departed back to France with his tail between his legs
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    edited September 2020

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    There is a deal to be done that respects UK sovereignty and is in the interests of both parties.

    Currently standards and regulations are aligned and there is a LPF which is a great start.

    1. Both parties agree that the other party shall [participate]/[contribute] in any proposals to change standards or regulations. (This is to enable each party's concerns to be properly taken into account by the other party).

    2. Both parties agree that if either party decides to change standards or regulations, it will give the other party [12] months notice. (This is to enable the other party to decide whether the change is acceptable and, if not, make appropriate preparations).

    3. Both parties agree that if any such change is deemed to be unacceptable by the other party, that party will formally declare that to be the case and the Agreement on zero tariiffs and no inspections will cease [12] months after such a declaration. (This is to give adequate time to prepare for the end of the Agreement).

    This preserves frictionless trade and avoids the rule maker/rule taker argument and respects UK (and EU) sovereignty and interests. It also avoids a border in the Irish Sea and respects the WDA.

    Absolutely unacceptable.

    There is no way it is reasonable to give 12 months notice of each and every law or tax change. Remember the EU is willing to define tax changes as "state aid".
    Note I put the 12 in brackets and that it applies to both parties. The word "change" could be substantial or material and tightly defined and it would apply to both parties.

    You will note that my proposal is symmetrical to both parties and treats the UK as an equal party. It is respectful.

    To say "Absolutely unacceptable" straight out is an illustration of the problem. You're not related to Ian Paisley by any chance? :)
    No I'm not but it doesn't matter how symmetrical it is. The EU would find it equally unacceptable for the same reason.

    Your first two points are redundant anyway, there's no reason why we can't just agree the third and be done with it.
    You can't speak for the EU but I don't see why they would find 12 months notice unacceptable. The 12 months is negotiable anyway. It is a trade off between giving adequate notice for preparation of the end of the Agreement and being able to swiftly implement changes domestically. It is not a deal breaker.

    The first two points are to enable each party to influence/lobby the other party if major changes are envisaged to avoid getting to point 3 if possible.

    Just relax for a moment and try to look at my proposal dispassionately and objectively.

    EDIT: I'm encouraged that you say "there's no reason why we can't just agree the third and be done with it". That would be a major step forward but not optimal without points 1 and 2.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals .
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    For the same reason we check passports at Dover but not in NI.
    Open border.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    I'm sorry I just fell of my chair laughing at that. When did Hitler become French?

    You specifically referred to France's track record against us.

    By the way my reply was meant to be a joke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/102675
    ...Britain does not break Treaties.
    It would be bad for Britain, bad for our relations with the rest of the world and bad for any future treaty on trade we may need to make.
    As Harold Macmillan said recently: “We used to stand for good faith. That is the greatest strength of our commerce overseas. And we are now being asked to tear up a Treaty into which we solemnly entered” ....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    As if we go to WTO terms Brexit there would still be tariffs on goods coming from the EU (which would include from the Republic of Ireland) to GB however Northern Ireland along with the rest of the UK left the EU in January
    Well exactly. I have no idea what your point it. Why do we put a border at one place and not the other?
    The GFA means there will be no hard border within Ireland
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    Bombing raids are not an invasion.
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    The EU is not trying to invade us, they're merely trying to protect one of their member states (Ireland). The Northern Ireland protocol to the WA was specifically renegotiated by Boris Johnson, and as I recall he was largely lauded by Tories on this forum for his strategic genius in getting an agreement at the time. To tear that up and create the prospect of a hard border in Ireland and potentially unravel the GFA is a shocking act of vandalism, as well as harming our prospects of signing agreements with other countries by making us look like liars and idiots.
    Of course the likely explanation for this apparent insanity is that it is the first part of the classic Johnson "bluster then capitulate" strategy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Perhaps Hitler had an Oven ready invasion
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I call peak PB Tory insanity.
    You think it cant get worse? In comparison with the last global flirtation with authoritarian nationalistic liars we are only in the equivalent of the mid 1920s at the moment, the next decade is still to come.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    As if we go to WTO terms Brexit there would still be tariffs on goods coming from the EU (which would include from the Republic of Ireland) to GB however Northern Ireland along with the rest of the UK left the EU in January
    Well exactly. I have no idea what your point it. Why do we put a border at one place and not the other?
    The GFA means there will be no hard border within Ireland
    So why do we bother elsewhere? If there is a great big gapping hole here.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    There is a deal to be done that respects UK sovereignty and is in the interests of both parties.

    Currently standards and regulations are aligned and there is a LPF which is a great start.

    1. Both parties agree that the other party shall [participate]/[contribute] in any proposals to change standards or regulations. (This is to enable each party's concerns to be properly taken into account by the other party).

    2. Both parties agree that if either party decides to change standards or regulations, it will give the other party [12] months notice. (This is to enable the other party to decide whether the change is acceptable and, if not, make appropriate preparations).

    3. Both parties agree that if any such change is deemed to be unacceptable by the other party, that party will formally declare that to be the case and the Agreement on zero tariiffs and no inspections will cease [12] months after such a declaration. (This is to give adequate time to prepare for the end of the Agreement).

    This preserves frictionless trade and avoids the rule maker/rule taker argument and respects UK (and EU) sovereignty and interests. It also avoids a border in the Irish Sea and respects the WDA.

    Absolutely unacceptable.

    There is no way it is reasonable to give 12 months notice of each and every law or tax change. Remember the EU is willing to define tax changes as "state aid".
    Note I put the 12 in brackets and that it applies to both parties. The word "change" could be substantial or material and tightly defined and it would apply to both parties.

    You will note that my proposal is symmetrical to both parties and treats the UK as an equal party. It is respectful.

    To say "Absolutely unacceptable" straight out is an illustration of the problem. You're not related to Ian Paisley by any chance? :)
    No I'm not but it doesn't matter how symmetrical it is. The EU would find it equally unacceptable for the same reason.

    Your first two points are redundant anyway, there's no reason why we can't just agree the third and be done with it.
    You can't speak for the EU but I don't see why they would find 12 months notice unacceptable. The 12 months is negotiable anyway. It is a trade off between giving adequate notice for preparation of the end of the Agreement and being able to swiftly implement changes domestically. It is not a deal breaker.

    The first two points are to enable each party to influence/lobby the other party if major changes are envisaged to avoid getting to point 3 if possible.

    Just relax for a moment and try to look at my proposal dispassionately and objectively.

    EDIT: I'm encouraged that you say "there's no reason why we can't just agree the third and be done with it". That would be a major step forward but not optimal without points 1 and 2.
    I can't speak for the EU but they can speak for themselves and have said clearly and reasonably that the UK would be a third party post Brexit and won't get a say in their domestic laws and taxes. Quite reasonably too.

    No sovereign country has ever agreed with a third party that I can think of that they won't change laws for 12 months nor could it be agreeable. To give a very simple example take the furlough scheme which is indisputably state aid. That was launched and was made effective immediately, indeed it was backdated a couple of weeks, it wasn't introduced after 12 months notice.


  • I find it hard to take the threat of no deal seriously because (1) we've done sod all to prepare for it, and (2) we've failed to follow through on previous threats. Perhaps this time there really will be wolves.

    You're right; it's an obvious dog that isn't barking.

    The trouble is that the UK hasn't made the preparations for the deal it claims to be seeking either. (Three word slogans don't count.)
  • kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    As if we go to WTO terms Brexit there would still be tariffs on goods coming from the EU (which would include from the Republic of Ireland) to GB however Northern Ireland along with the rest of the UK left the EU in January
    Well exactly. I have no idea what your point it. Why do we put a border at one place and not the other?
    The GFA means there will be no hard border within Ireland
    So why do we bother elsewhere? If there is a great big gapping hole here.
    Because some things are more important than holes. It's about a balance of risk.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Not to pull punches about the risible Johnson - as if - but those stupendously dense comments of his about Donald Trump were made in 2017 not 2020. In 2017 although it should have been clear to people - and it certainly was to me - that Trump was vermin, the evidence was not quite as overwhelming as it is today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited September 2020
    Needs to be strict enforcement of those student bubbles
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1302885123499724801?s=20
  • kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    I'm sorry I just fell of my chair laughing at that. When did Hitler become French?

    You specifically referred to France's track record against us.

    By the way my reply was meant to be a joke.
    Imagine an EU diplomat thinking not sure what the mood is in the UK, I'll have a look at (one of) the UKs biggest political blogs to get a feel for it. Sees its descended into nostalgic war farce.......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    I'm sorry I just fell of my chair laughing at that. When did Hitler become French?

    You specifically referred to France's track record against us.

    By the way my reply was meant to be a joke.
    It's HYUFD doing his Francois imitation.
    He's just a Tory Vicar of Bray.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Perhaps Hitler had an Oven ready invasion

    He certainly did for the jews of Eastern Europe. Although not according to Rod Crosby.
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I call peak PB Tory insanity.
    You think it cant get worse? In comparison with the last global flirtation with authoritarian nationalistic liars we are only in the equivalent of the mid 1920s at the moment, the next decade is still to come.
    Yeah you're probably right. It does feel like the 1940s inoculation against this kind of shit is wearing off.
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    The EU is not trying to invade us, they're merely trying to protect one of their member states (Ireland). The Northern Ireland protocol to the WA was specifically renegotiated by Boris Johnson, and as I recall he was largely lauded by Tories on this forum for his strategic genius in getting an agreement at the time. To tear that up and create the prospect of a hard border in Ireland and potentially unravel the GFA is a shocking act of vandalism, as well as harming our prospects of signing agreements with other countries by making us look like liars and idiots.
    Of course the likely explanation for this apparent insanity is that it is the first part of the classic Johnson "bluster then capitulate" strategy.
    If the EU want to "protect" Ireland maybe they should negotiate a deal with us in good faith? Just an idea.

    Otherwise what incentive have we got to do what they want. It takes two to tango.

    It was the EU's choice to schedule talks this way. They can live with the consequences of their choices.
  • Is anyone else developing an addiction to White House polls showing no change, I can make it through most of the day then I start craving my next fix
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    The EU is not trying to invade us, they're merely trying to protect one of their member states (Ireland). The Northern Ireland protocol to the WA was specifically renegotiated by Boris Johnson, and as I recall he was largely lauded by Tories on this forum for his strategic genius in getting an agreement at the time. To tear that up and create the prospect of a hard border in Ireland and potentially unravel the GFA is a shocking act of vandalism, as well as harming our prospects of signing agreements with other countries by making us look like liars and idiots.
    Of course the likely explanation for this apparent insanity is that it is the first part of the classic Johnson "bluster then capitulate" strategy.
    If the EU want to "protect" Ireland maybe they should negotiate a deal with us in good faith? Just an idea.

    Otherwise what incentive have we got to do what they want. It takes two to tango.

    It was the EU's choice to schedule talks this way. They can live with the consequences of their choices.
    You talk about negotiating in good faith, yet it is Johnson who is threatening to walk back from something he's already agreed to.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Perhaps Hitler had an Oven ready invasion

    He certainly did for the jews of Eastern Europe. Although not according to Rod Crosby.
    Ouch.
  • kinabalu said:

    Not to pull punches about the risible Johnson - as if - but those stupendously dense comments of his about Donald Trump were made in 2017 not 2020. In 2017 although it should have been clear to people - and it certainly was to me - that Trump was vermin, the evidence was not quite as overwhelming as it is today.

    He is still the President of the US, and unusually susceptible to flattery. The job of the UK foreign secretary is to flatter him relentlessly. The PM less so, they should stand up and challenge him more directly, but the only relationship we can have with a Trump US is transactional, and exchanging flattery for influence is a good deal here, however uncomfortable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    As if we go to WTO terms Brexit there would still be tariffs on goods coming from the EU (which would include from the Republic of Ireland) to GB however Northern Ireland along with the rest of the UK left the EU in January
    We WON'T be moving to WTO terms! It's a not happening event.

    How many times. :smile:
  • HYUFD said:

    Needs to be strict enforcement of those student bubbles
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1302885123499724801?s=20

    There wont be. What will the govt do?
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993

    kinabalu said:

    Not to pull punches about the risible Johnson - as if - but those stupendously dense comments of his about Donald Trump were made in 2017 not 2020. In 2017 although it should have been clear to people - and it certainly was to me - that Trump was vermin, the evidence was not quite as overwhelming as it is today.

    He is still the President of the US, and unusually susceptible to flattery. The job of the UK foreign secretary is to flatter him relentlessly. The PM less so, they should stand up and challenge him more directly, but the only relationship we can have with a Trump US is transactional, and exchanging flattery for influence is a good deal here, however uncomfortable.
    When Hugh Grant was Prime Minister he Actually told the US President where to go in no uncertain terms.
  • Completely Off Topic
    But maybe more important in the long term than anything else discussed today.
    Artificial photosynthesis but 100 times faster that produces useful chemicals from CO2 and sunlight.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urHqk7TLSUo
    Sell Shell?
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    The EU is not trying to invade us, they're merely trying to protect one of their member states (Ireland). The Northern Ireland protocol to the WA was specifically renegotiated by Boris Johnson, and as I recall he was largely lauded by Tories on this forum for his strategic genius in getting an agreement at the time. To tear that up and create the prospect of a hard border in Ireland and potentially unravel the GFA is a shocking act of vandalism, as well as harming our prospects of signing agreements with other countries by making us look like liars and idiots.
    Of course the likely explanation for this apparent insanity is that it is the first part of the classic Johnson "bluster then capitulate" strategy.
    If the EU want to "protect" Ireland maybe they should negotiate a deal with us in good faith? Just an idea.

    Otherwise what incentive have we got to do what they want. It takes two to tango.

    It was the EU's choice to schedule talks this way. They can live with the consequences of their choices.
    You talk about negotiating in good faith, yet it is Johnson who is threatening to walk back from something he's already agreed to.
    Not walk away from it, it would still be there, it just won't be supreme in domestic law which is a domestic matter.

    The EU have decided that they don't want to treat us as a sovereign country. We have decided we will be. Time to stop messing around with this farce and just get on with it.
  • Is anyone else developing an addiction to White House polls showing no change, I can make it through most of the day then I start craving my next fix

    I just look at the 538 and Economist polling averages, which seem quite stable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Dura_Ace said:

    Perhaps Hitler had an Oven ready invasion

    He certainly did for the jews of Eastern Europe. Although not according to Rod Crosby.
    Mate I can see now why you are such a cycling fan - just looking for a new light and the similarities between the Giant Recon HL1600 and a Glock 17 are striking.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Nappy prices are soaring as remainers react to the government's tidying up exercise on the Irish Border.

    Goodness.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    HYUFD said:

    Needs to be strict enforcement of those student bubbles
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1302885123499724801?s=20

    There wont be. What will the govt do?
    If people don’t follow the rules then the UK will follow Europe where the rules were not followed by a significant proportion of the population. Apparently it’s impossible to have fun wearing a mask.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    As if we go to WTO terms Brexit there would still be tariffs on goods coming from the EU (which would include from the Republic of Ireland) to GB however Northern Ireland along with the rest of the UK left the EU in January
    We WON'T be moving to WTO terms! It's a not happening event.

    How many times. :smile:
    If on 16 October it is announced that No Deal is happening then will that shake your worldview in other things you consider to be not happening events?
  • Is anyone else developing an addiction to White House polls showing no change, I can make it through most of the day then I start craving my next fix

    I just look at the 538 and Economist polling averages, which seem quite stable.
    I do that too but then I want to refresh them and see them not change
  • So will people now STFU about a border in the Irish Sea?

    Why would we?

    It's always been the case that there is either a border between the North and the Republic, or a border between NI and GB, or the UK has a trade deal broadly equivalent to EEA + Customs Union.

    The FT reporting that the Johnson Ministry is denying this does not make the reality go away.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    Listening to 5 live business this morning on the WDA by an independent observer she commented that the WDA is not being re-written but sections on the internal GB market and state aid are to be altered in UK law to come into force only if a no deal occurs

    She went on to say that this must be seen in the context that the negotiations have to conclude by the 15th October and expects this will focus minds.

    However, I do not agree with breaching a treaty and I would actually have preferred for Boris just to confirm that without movement in the negotiations this week the UK will leave on a no deal and everyone should make arrangements as necessary

    It remains to be seen just how this plays out over the next 6 weeks

    Cummings expects the EU to fold. I can't see how they can from a threat like this.

    What next? Do they buckle at Putin's brinkmanship over Belarus?
    The observer did not seem anything like as upset as many on here are and seemed to think it was just part of the increasing urgency over a deal

    I do not know but I would be interested if an independent voice could advise on the legal status of the WDA in the event of no deal

    I am not comfortable with breaching a treaty and like so much on Brexit controversy prevails all around

    And as far as the EU and Putin are concerned do you really think Merkel will withdraw from the Nord Stream energy supply from Russia
    Legally the WA applies in the event of no deal. The UK has the sovereign right to repudiate it. They would have to live with the consequences.

    In the short term this would mean the breaking of the GFA and a border on the island of Ireland.

    Philip doesn't care. He believes that this would lead to a United Ireland. He favours a United Ireland. He believes that other UK Govt policies are leading inevitably to Scottish Independence. He favours Scottish Independence.

    Therefore he is entirely comfortable coming on here and defending UK Govt policy which will lead to the outcomes he favours. It doesn't matter to him that the UK Govt doesn't (we presume) support his outcomes.

    I assume he also doesn't think the UK should bother trying to sign trade deals with other countries since other countries are not going to sign deals knowing that the UK will attempt to rewrite them whenever they discover something they don't like in them.
    The UK is sticking to the terms of the WA not to have a hard border within Ireland actually, just threatening to rip up the pledge to have a border in the Irish Sea, which if Boris does do that will also win the 8 DUP MPs back to the Tories in the event of a hung parliament in 2024
    If we don't get a deal what happens on the NI / Eire border?
    The UK government still respects the WA terms within Ireland and on the NI/Eire border, they just refuse to impose a border in the Irish Sea.

    If the EU want to build a hard border within Ireland that is up to the EU, the UK side will remain borderless
    Why are we putting all the customs stuff in place at Dover then if we just leave the NI/Eire border open?
    As if we go to WTO terms Brexit there would still be tariffs on goods coming from the EU (which would include from the Republic of Ireland) to GB however Northern Ireland along with the rest of the UK left the EU in January
    We WON'T be moving to WTO terms! It's a not happening event.

    How many times. :smile:
    I’m afraid neither you or PT are in influential positions to be able to make such dogmatic predictions but at least you add a smiley face.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Interesting we view Obama positively considering what he said about our position in the trade deal queue.
  • kinabalu said:

    Not to pull punches about the risible Johnson - as if - but those stupendously dense comments of his about Donald Trump were made in 2017 not 2020. In 2017 although it should have been clear to people - and it certainly was to me - that Trump was vermin, the evidence was not quite as overwhelming as it is today.

    He is still the President of the US, and unusually susceptible to flattery. The job of the UK foreign secretary is to flatter him relentlessly. The PM less so, they should stand up and challenge him more directly, but the only relationship we can have with a Trump US is transactional, and exchanging flattery for influence is a good deal here, however uncomfortable.
    Yes. The British should be very good at it. After all, we have 300 years experience of gaining advantage by flattering tinpot despots around the world.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    There is a deal to be done that respects UK sovereignty and is in the interests of both parties.

    Currently standards and regulations are aligned and there is a LPF which is a great start.

    1. Both parties agree that the other party shall [participate]/[contribute] in any proposals to change standards or regulations. (This is to enable each party's concerns to be properly taken into account by the other party).

    2. Both parties agree that if either party decides to change standards or regulations, it will give the other party [12] months notice. (This is to enable the other party to decide whether the change is acceptable and, if not, make appropriate preparations).

    3. Both parties agree that if any such change is deemed to be unacceptable by the other party, that party will formally declare that to be the case and the Agreement on zero tariiffs and no inspections will cease [12] months after such a declaration. (This is to give adequate time to prepare for the end of the Agreement).

    This preserves frictionless trade and avoids the rule maker/rule taker argument and respects UK (and EU) sovereignty and interests. It also avoids a border in the Irish Sea and respects the WDA.

    Absolutely unacceptable.

    There is no way it is reasonable to give 12 months notice of each and every law or tax change. Remember the EU is willing to define tax changes as "state aid".
    Note I put the 12 in brackets and that it applies to both parties. The word "change" could be substantial or material and tightly defined and it would apply to both parties.

    You will note that my proposal is symmetrical to both parties and treats the UK as an equal party. It is respectful.

    To say "Absolutely unacceptable" straight out is an illustration of the problem. You're not related to Ian Paisley by any chance? :)
    No I'm not but it doesn't matter how symmetrical it is. The EU would find it equally unacceptable for the same reason.

    Your first two points are redundant anyway, there's no reason why we can't just agree the third and be done with it.
    You can't speak for the EU but I don't see why they would find 12 months notice unacceptable. The 12 months is negotiable anyway. It is a trade off between giving adequate notice for preparation of the end of the Agreement and being able to swiftly implement changes domestically. It is not a deal breaker.

    The first two points are to enable each party to influence/lobby the other party if major changes are envisaged to avoid getting to point 3 if possible.

    Just relax for a moment and try to look at my proposal dispassionately and objectively.

    EDIT: I'm encouraged that you say "there's no reason why we can't just agree the third and be done with it". That would be a major step forward but not optimal without points 1 and 2.
    I can't speak for the EU but they can speak for themselves and have said clearly and reasonably that the UK would be a third party post Brexit and won't get a say in their domestic laws and taxes. Quite reasonably too.

    No sovereign country has ever agreed with a third party that I can think of that they won't change laws for 12 months nor could it be agreeable. To give a very simple example take the furlough scheme which is indisputably state aid. That was launched and was made effective immediately, indeed it was backdated a couple of weeks, it wasn't introduced after 12 months notice.
    Good. This is progress. We are beginning to negotiate.

    "Won't get a say" - probably means won't get a vote. Fair enough. I'm not proposing that. I'm proposing a mechanism for making representations. In a sense it is a continual negotiation to avoid the deal inadvertently collapsing to the detriment of both parties.

    Many EU counties made rapid changes because of Covid. It can be covered by a "force majeure" clause. The EU have not complained about our furlough scheme even though we are still covered by EU regulations until the end of this year.

    This is how sensible and productive negotiations proceed. Both parties consider objections by the other party and try to find solutions that are in their mutual interest.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    edited September 2020

    kinabalu said:

    Not to pull punches about the risible Johnson - as if - but those stupendously dense comments of his about Donald Trump were made in 2017 not 2020. In 2017 although it should have been clear to people - and it certainly was to me - that Trump was vermin, the evidence was not quite as overwhelming as it is today.

    He is still the President of the US, and unusually susceptible to flattery. The job of the UK foreign secretary is to flatter him relentlessly. The PM less so, they should stand up and challenge him more directly, but the only relationship we can have with a Trump US is transactional, and exchanging flattery for influence is a good deal here, however uncomfortable.
    One must weigh up the loss of dignity and the encouragement of bad ego against the influence truly gained. I think the first outweighs the second for us with Trump. But those 2017 comments of Johnson seem to be of genuine opinion rather than feigned to please. Still, he says at any time and in any circumstances whatever he thinks benefits HIM, we know that about him above all else, so who knows.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    Interesting we view Obama positively considering what he said about our position in the trade deal queue.

    He told the truth

    That makes him special these days, and worthy of praise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Deliberately breaching a treaty is an Act of War. In another era this would have lead to a declaration of war from the other side and actual fighting.

    Well if the EU want to declare war on the UK, an island nation which has not been successfully invaded since 1066 and with a stronger military than any other nation in the EU bar France whose war record is not that great against us, in order to defend the right of customs and tariffs to be imposed on goods coming from NI to mainland GB and vice versa that is up to them
    I agree that nobody is going to be arsed to go to war over these customs or tariffs but I think the reasoning that it is because 'France whose war record is not that great against us' is a smidging weak, since the last time planes didn't exist, battleships used sails and we defended ourselves against cavalry by forming square; or are you proposing we should fight a historic reenactment.
    When Hitler tried to invade there were planes, hence the Battle of Britain, battleships without sails and tanks had replaced cavalry, he also failed
    The EU is not trying to invade us, they're merely trying to protect one of their member states (Ireland). The Northern Ireland protocol to the WA was specifically renegotiated by Boris Johnson, and as I recall he was largely lauded by Tories on this forum for his strategic genius in getting an agreement at the time. To tear that up and create the prospect of a hard border in Ireland and potentially unravel the GFA is a shocking act of vandalism, as well as harming our prospects of signing agreements with other countries by making us look like liars and idiots.
    Of course the likely explanation for this apparent insanity is that it is the first part of the classic Johnson "bluster then capitulate" strategy.
    Except the UK government will not create a hard border in Ireland nor unravel the GFA, not a single customs or border post will be create on the UK side of the border with the Irish Republic in Ireland, if the EU wants to build them that is up to the EU and Dublin.

    Boris is simply saying there will be no customs duties on goods coming from Northern Ireland to GB if No Deal, only on goods coming from the Republic of Ireland to GB
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Scott_xP said:
    So he is right we will have a non existent one lis Australia
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Not to pull punches about the risible Johnson - as if - but those stupendously dense comments of his about Donald Trump were made in 2017 not 2020. In 2017 although it should have been clear to people - and it certainly was to me - that Trump was vermin, the evidence was not quite as overwhelming as it is today.

    He is still the President of the US, and unusually susceptible to flattery. The job of the UK foreign secretary is to flatter him relentlessly. The PM less so, they should stand up and challenge him more directly, but the only relationship we can have with a Trump US is transactional, and exchanging flattery for influence is a good deal here, however uncomfortable.
    One must weigh up the loss of dignity and the encouragement of bad ego against the influence truly gained. I think the first outweighs the second for us with Trump. But those 2017 comments of Johnson seem to be of genuine opinion rather than feigned to please. Still, he says at any time and in any circumstances whatever he thinks benefits HIM, we know that about him above all else, so who knows.
    It could do if we didnt have mid level officials in the governing party talking about battleships and tanks in our relationship with the EU, and most of the governing party talking about a cold war with China.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Fun Political Betting Challenge

    Here is the graph of Scotland 5-11 number of tests per week - I have left off the dates. Can you spot when schools went back?



    Here's the absolute number of positive test of the age group



    And the positive test rate (latest week was 0.04%)!




    Unless there has been massive preparation the Testing system is about to be overwhelmed in the UK.
  • HYUFD said:
    But you voted REMAIN, meaning you would have preferred us to be part of the EU.
  • So will people now STFU about a border in the Irish Sea?

    Why would we?

    It's always been the case that there is either a border between the North and the Republic, or a border between NI and GB, or the UK has a trade deal broadly equivalent to EEA + Customs Union.

    The FT reporting that the Johnson Ministry is denying this does not make the reality go away.
    No that's not always been the case.

    Alternative solutions have always existed. Eg the UK does its own thing, the EU does its own thing, no borders and just deal with it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited September 2020
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Perhaps Hitler had an Oven ready invasion

    He certainly did for the jews of Eastern Europe. Although not according to Rod Crosby.
    Mate I can see now why you are such a cycling fan - just looking for a new light and the similarities between the Giant Recon HL1600 and a Glock 17 are striking.
    Those are decent lights but 1800L is obnoxiously bright for other cyclists. If you're not bothered about Garmin integration have a look at a Moon Vortex. That has 450L which is plenty and they are much cheaper.
This discussion has been closed.