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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s reported admiration for Trump won’t look smart if Biden wins
This from the Sunday Telegraph
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Tory voters may not greatly admire Trump but that does not mean they want Biden to win either
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1283804957897109504?s=20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/
However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.
If Biden loses and Trump wins again of course that would be devastating for UK Labour but the Tories would cope and Boris would deal with him as he has done before and build a solid relationship with President Trump towards a UK and US FTA
Johnson as Foreign Secretary is reported to have shmoozed a foreign dignitary and told him what he wanted to hear. That was kid of his job.
If Trump loses then Boris will congratulate Biden and start working with him. It's what governments do.
Blair was able to work with Clinton and then George W Bush.
If you are UK PM you have to work with the US president whether they are a Democrat or a Republican and do your best to get close to them
Oh wait, the French haven't been dealing with the migrants.
The Spaniards already are causing trouble over Gibraltar regularly.
The fishermen aren't able to catch three quarters of the fish let alone land them.
https://vimeo.com/29589320
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2010/oct/09/insane-clown-posse-christians-god
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1lL-hXO27Q
(Sorry!)
Well here’s Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, saying exactly that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54047347
Though what role the Foreign Secretary has to do with this I'm not sure and the Health Secretary who is more relevant is saying the opposite.
I agree with the Health Secretary.
Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
So it seems that China does not seem to have done too badly out of a virus that originated in its country compared to the rest of the world and it took weeks to warn the rest of the planet about (bar the covered up deaths but little worry to an authoritarian regime like theirs).
The conspiracy theorists will wonder about that Chinese lab for years
2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
Instead we need to bring India into an expanded G7 of western democracies if we are going to build a real counterweight to the authoritarian Communist Xi regime
China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.
The 21st Century will be ruled by China. All these arguments over Brexit deals etc aren't going to change any of this.
PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?
Also, the Chinese are running somewhat against time. It’s working age population is set to fall rapidly, its naval capabilities are not a match if the US did decide to go full out and it faces structural pressures at home.
And we see they are rapidly evolving far beyond being simply the workshop of the world. After stealing lots of IP, now putting huge resources into own CPUs, AI, etc, all the things that run the 21st Century.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China–India_skirmishes
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
As for the public accepting more expensive goods, if you are that negative, the consumer is not going to be buying goods full stop. It would be more of an issue if the world economy was fine and we were still buying tons of stuff. We are not. Households are hunkering down.
Yes, the Chinese are putting tons of resources into AI, CPUs, have stolen lots of intellectual property etc but they face a major issue in that they are increasingly are being pushed out of scientific institutions (especially in the US) as Governments tighten visa requirements.
Plus, Xi may be in trouble. He launched another recent purge and there are rumours many are unhappy, Hong Kong promises to be a festering wound.
https://www.270towin.com/
Now, can Trump win? Absolutely. His voters are more fired up, and he just needs that one thing. But so far, it hasn't happened. Biden is anchored north of 50%, which is extremely unusual this far out. The last time a candidate was averaging north of fifty percent two months before polling day was, I think, Reagan in 1984.
Another point on China.
I watched an interesting interview about Russian interference in the West. The general approach is that they identify underlying grievances and work at amplifying them.
The interviewee went on to say that at the moment China have mainly deployed very old school tactics such as overt propaganda and comprising individuals as ways as influencing the West i.e. how Russia used to operate in the 80s.
However, they are well aware of how Russia have used these approaches and as we know the Chinese are excellent at replicating established technology and improving on it.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
My issue with that map is that it leaves lots of states where Trump keeps them on very narrow - perhaps 1% or less - margins. Wisconsin, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Michigan are all presumably very narrow holds.
And it only takes one of those to inch over the line, and then suddenly it's a Biden victory. A point or two more, and suddenly it's a Biden whitewash.
For context, the Brexit referendum in the UK was won by that kind of margin (52-48), and that had Leave winning in the majority of constituencies. Simply, at 51 vs 47, Biden is getting almost 10% more votes than Trump. That's pretty hard to overcome in what is effectively an FTPT election.
It's not a done deal but for the markets to treat this as a 50/50 shot is totally bananas.
But if you look on Wikipedia, Reagan was leading Mondale 54-55 to low 40s at this time in 1984. If you look back at all the polling averages has any challenger polled as consistently highly as Biden is now?
If I was looking at possible Trump pick ups, I'd look at Maine, Virginia and New Hampshire. All of those have much better favourables for the President than Minnesota, although I grant you that the disturbances there may have changed things.
Re Corbyn, he didn’t but bear in mind the UK and US have two different electoral systems. FPTP got May her seats. If the US had a similar gap to the 2017 result - ie 2.4 pc - then Trump would be likely to be President again.
Which implies Biden will most likely win an absolute majority of the popular vote. Apart from the extremely dodgy disputed election of 1874 there has never been a candidate who has won an absolute majority of the popular vote and not won the Electoral College too.
With Minnesota, the riots are a factor but I think more important is the energy issue which is a major point in rural areas. The Democrats pro-green stance is unlikely to go down well.
Interestingly, the MN Senate race has been moved from leans Democrat to toss up (in RCP).
Trump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.
I was speaking with the head of one of the Oxbridge Colleges who explained that the Chinese students stick together as a group, make no efforts to integrate and are clearly looking to take knowledge back to China. That’s not really a group that does subtle. And, unlike with Russian communism, there are very few idealists about Chinese communism.
Re Tik Tok WeChat etc, it is a big deal and many American tech firms are realising they need to disengage themselves from Chinese tech ASAP. As I said, the Chinese could have done with a few more years to execute their strategy.
It would annoy all the right people.
That appears to be the only metric that matters.
Trigger them Cons .
Or some such.
Biden 2020 is shaping up to being Theresa May 2017.
Who wins that election?
Biden 1.94
Dem 1.87
Trump 2.14
Rep 2.12
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
PS Whatever you think about their projections, their graphs are really nice. If you click on "polls" for "Modelled popular vote on each day" it has a great little chart that shows you the latest polls in and allows you to easily compare them to the previous polls from the same pollster:
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president#modelled-popular-vote-on-each-day
https://twitter.com/RanuDhillon/status/1302779278677872640
https://twitter.com/CLewandowski_/status/1302046653847830528
F1: an unexpected turn of events yesterday. I had hopes of my bet on Ferrari not scoring coming off but didn't expect it to be quite so emphatic.
On topic: why was our PM kissing the US ambassador's arse? Surely normal protocol would be for it to be the other way round?
Most of all, because he served as VP under Obama it nullifies the incumbency factor.
I am still figuring out whether tearing up both the WA and the GFA is a masterstroke or utter folly with potentially dangerous ramifications.
UK law would just take precedence in UK courts. As it should.