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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s reported admiration for Trump won’t look smart if Bi

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 6 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s reported admiration for Trump won’t look smart if Biden wins

This from the Sunday Telegraph

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    It is not far out of tune with Tory voters though, just 36% of Tory voters want Biden to win the Presidency compared to 75% of Labour voters who want Biden to win.
    Tory voters may not greatly admire Trump but that does not mean they want Biden to win either
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,049
    HYUFD said:

    It is not far out of tune with Tory voters though, just 36% of Tory voters want Biden to win the Presidency compared to 75% of Labour voters who want Biden to win.
    Tory voters may not greatly admire Trump but that does not mean they want Biden to win either

    Perhaps those numbers show that Conservative voters don't care as much about America.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 35,647
    geoffw said:

    I'm not sure it's a good move, but all the right people are upset.

    Government run by an aide who has a teenager's delight in knocking on doors and then running away.
  • How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,184
    edited September 6

    geoffw said:

    I'm not sure it's a good move, but all the right people are upset.

    Government run by an aide who has a teenager's delight in knocking on doors and then running away.
    ¡Olé!
    :smiley:
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    edited September 6
    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595

    HYUFD said:

    It is not far out of tune with Tory voters though, just 36% of Tory voters want Biden to win the Presidency compared to 75% of Labour voters who want Biden to win.
    Tory voters may not greatly admire Trump but that does not mean they want Biden to win either

    Perhaps those numbers show that Conservative voters don't care as much about America.
    It shows they are not left liberal Democrats but not Trump Republicans either but somewhere in between, willing to work with either US administration unlike Labour now who are tied to the US Democrats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this an increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo

    Even if Biden wins there will still be populist Presidents of Poland, Brazil, and the Philippines and a populist Indian PM and a pro Brexit Australian PM it will not have disappeared.

    If Biden loses and Trump wins again of course that would be devastating for UK Labour but the Tories would cope and Boris would deal with him as he has done before and build a solid relationship with President Trump towards a UK and US FTA
  • How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    The description "Somalian" is in quotes, and the story seems to attribute it to a chatroom for security guards.
  • Christ thats a niche ICP reference!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6

    Silly nonsense story.

    Johnson as Foreign Secretary is reported to have shmoozed a foreign dignitary and told him what he wanted to hear. That was kid of his job.

    If Trump loses then Boris will congratulate Biden and start working with him. It's what governments do.

    Blair was able to work with Clinton and then George W Bush.

    Exactly, Thatcher worked with Carter and Reagan, Major with Bush and Clinton, Blair with Clinton and Bush, Brown with Bush and Obama, May with Obama and Trump.

    If you are UK PM you have to work with the US president whether they are a Democrat or a Republican and do your best to get close to them
  • How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    The description "Somalian" is in quotes, and the story seems to attribute it to a chatroom for security guards.
    That's what i meant, its pretty irresponsible reporting. While, the police appear to be mind readers.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533

    Christ thats a niche ICP reference!
    I was originally going to rework it into something more topical like "fucking random samples" but I realized I couldn't surpass the beauty of the original
  • Christ thats a niche ICP reference!
    I was originally going to rework it into something more topical like "fucking random samples" but I realized I couldn't surpass the beauty of the original
    Never had you down as a Jugglao (or whatever their weird fans are called).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
  • FPT


    Some British people are behind the government on Brexit, maybe up to 50%. The consensus is much broader in Ireland. The one thing that the Irish coalition government, which is now led by Fianna Fail, has no need to worry about is any kind of domestic backlash should the UK decide to renege on a deal it has signed. To be fair, I think the UK government will get a boost too once No Deal becomes reality. The issue is what does a country that has proved it can’t be trusted do to mitigate the damage of what No Deal will bring?

    Oh, I'm sure that as soon as we renege on an international treaty the French will be rushing to help us deal with the cross-channel migration problem, the Spaniards will become cooperative on Gibraltar, and UK fishermen will be given full rights to land their fish in EU ports with no bureaucracy.
    Oh dear what a shame.

    Oh wait, the French haven't been dealing with the migrants.

    The Spaniards already are causing trouble over Gibraltar regularly.

    The fishermen aren't able to catch three quarters of the fish let alone land them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678

    Christ thats a niche ICP reference!
    No ICP reference is complete without a link to the truly astonishing American Juggalo:

  • rcs1000 said:

    Christ thats a niche ICP reference!
    No ICP reference is complete without a link to the truly astonishing American Juggalo:

    Weren't they at one point prescribed as a terrorist organisation? Seems a bit extreme for a load of weirdos who major crime seems to causing world shortages of Faygo soda.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,108

    How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    The description "Somalian" is in quotes, and the story seems to attribute it to a chatroom for security guards.
    He looks like a Somali in the picture on the front page of the Times.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    rcs1000 said:

    Christ thats a niche ICP reference!
    No ICP reference is complete without a link to the truly astonishing American Juggalo:

    And - of course - ICP led to one of the greatest Jon Ronson articles of all time:

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2010/oct/09/insane-clown-posse-christians-god
  • rcs1000 said:
    Feynman magnets how do they work?



    (Sorry!)
  • Foxy said:

    How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    The description "Somalian" is in quotes, and the story seems to attribute it to a chatroom for security guards.
    He looks like a Somali in the picture on the front page of the Times.
    In cases like this i think it is important to be accurate and stick to facts, instead we get two extremes. Telegraph publishing gossip from a chatroom, while the BBC wont even say its a black man and they / Guardian cut the eye witness report to remove the clear accurate description of individual's appearance.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 9,702
    Remember that over the past week @Philip_Thompson has been saying that its only the press who’s against WFH and that the Government is not?

    Well here’s Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, saying exactly that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54047347
  • Remember that over the past week @Philip_Thompson has been saying that its only the press who’s against WFH and that the Government is not?

    Well here’s Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, saying exactly that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54047347

    Then Raab is an idiot.

    Though what role the Foreign Secretary has to do with this I'm not sure and the Health Secretary who is more relevant is saying the opposite.

    I agree with the Health Secretary.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,457

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6
    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    More specifically East Asia (though Japan has seen a decline in its gdp), Iran for example was hit hard by Covid.

    So it seems that China does not seem to have done too badly out of a virus that originated in its country compared to the rest of the world and it took weeks to warn the rest of the planet about (bar the covered up deaths but little worry to an authoritarian regime like theirs).

    The conspiracy theorists will wonder about that Chinese lab for years
  • LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
  • Foxy said:

    How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    The description "Somalian" is in quotes, and the story seems to attribute it to a chatroom for security guards.
    He looks like a Somali in the picture on the front page of the Times.
    In cases like this i think it is important to be accurate and stick to facts, instead we get two extremes. Telegraph publishing gossip from a chatroom, while the BBC wont even say its a black man and they / Guardian cut the eye witness report to remove the clear accurate description of individual's appearance.
    The Telegraph reports the police initially arrested the wrong man, underlining the need for care and accuracy.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,457
    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    More specifically East Asia, Iran for example was hit hard by Covid
    Of course: I meant East AsIa
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 1,457

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Indeed but that also means the USA alone is not strong enough to counter China.

    Instead we need to bring India into an expanded G7 of western democracies if we are going to build a real counterweight to the authoritarian Communist Xi regime
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 47,981
    edited September 6
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Well the US is also weighed down in the midst of a huge struggle over race and far left ideas. Neither of those go away with Biden e.g. see Portland, the protesters want the head of their mayor, despite him already being way to the left of mainstream US politics.

    China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.

    The 21st Century will be ruled by China. All these arguments over Brexit deals etc aren't going to change any of this.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,001
    edited September 6
    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 9,702
    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Indeed but that also means the USA alone is not strong enough to counter China.

    Instead we need to bring India into an expanded G7 of western democracies if we are going to build a real counterweight to the authoritarian Communist Xi regime
    You’re obsessed with India. India does not care about you, or us.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Well the US is also weighed down in the midst of a huge struggle over race and far left ideas. Neither of those go away with Biden.

    China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to do manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.
    Funnily enough, I think it’s the beginning of the end for China. It has been shown up to the rest of the world as a dissembling bully which acts in its own interests. It needed a few more years of everyone falling for the “Cuddly China” trick to be permanently embedded in Western society. Now, in the US and India at least (as well as much of the Anglosphere), there is a clear reticence about allowing China any leeway whatsoever.

    Also, the Chinese are running somewhat against time. It’s working age population is set to fall rapidly, its naval capabilities are not a match if the US did decide to go full out and it faces structural pressures at home.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 47,981
    edited September 6
    MrEd said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Well the US is also weighed down in the midst of a huge struggle over race and far left ideas. Neither of those go away with Biden.

    China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to do manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.
    Funnily enough, I think it’s the beginning of the end for China. It has been shown up to the rest of the world as a dissembling bully which acts in its own interests. It needed a few more years of everyone falling for the “Cuddly China” trick to be permanently embedded in Western society. Now, in the US and India at least (as well as much of the Anglosphere), there is a clear reticence about allowing China any leeway whatsoever.

    Also, the Chinese are running somewhat against time. It’s working age population is set to fall rapidly, its naval capabilities are not a match if the US did decide to go full out and it faces structural pressures at home.
    No world leader is going to stand up to them. Any talk of becoming less reliant on them just isn't going to fly. The public in the West won't suddenly accept more expensive goods in the midst of an economic recession / depression, further cementing their position in the world.

    And we see they are rapidly evolving far beyond being simply the workshop of the world. After stealing lots of IP, now putting huge resources into own CPUs, AI, etc, all the things that run the 21st Century.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Indeed but that also means the USA alone is not strong enough to counter China.

    Instead we need to bring India into an expanded G7 of western democracies if we are going to build a real counterweight to the authoritarian Communist Xi regime
    You’re obsessed with India. India does not care about you, or us.
    India is not an enemy of us however, yet it is increasingly hostile to China

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_China–India_skirmishes
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673
    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673

    MrEd said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Well the US is also weighed down in the midst of a huge struggle over race and far left ideas. Neither of those go away with Biden.

    China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to do manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.
    Funnily enough, I think it’s the beginning of the end for China. It has been shown up to the rest of the world as a dissembling bully which acts in its own interests. It needed a few more years of everyone falling for the “Cuddly China” trick to be permanently embedded in Western society. Now, in the US and India at least (as well as much of the Anglosphere), there is a clear reticence about allowing China any leeway whatsoever.

    Also, the Chinese are running somewhat against time. It’s working age population is set to fall rapidly, its naval capabilities are not a match if the US did decide to go full out and it faces structural pressures at home.
    No world leader is going to stand up to them. Any talk of becoming less reliant on them just isn't going to fly. The public in the West won't suddenly except more expensive goods in the midst of an economic recession / depression, further cementing their position in the world.

    And we see they are rapidly evolving far beyond being simply the workshop of the world. After stealing lots of IP, now putting huge resources into own CPUs, AI, etc, all the things that run the 21st Century.
    They already are standing up to them. India has gone and banned another load of Chinese apps. Trump has forced a sale of TikTok ex-China. The UK has announced a retreat from using Huawei.

    As for the public accepting more expensive goods, if you are that negative, the consumer is not going to be buying goods full stop. It would be more of an issue if the world economy was fine and we were still buying tons of stuff. We are not. Households are hunkering down.

    Yes, the Chinese are putting tons of resources into AI, CPUs, have stolen lots of intellectual property etc but they face a major issue in that they are increasingly are being pushed out of scientific institutions (especially in the US) as Governments tighten visa requirements.

    Plus, Xi may be in trouble. He launched another recent purge and there are rumours many are unhappy, Hong Kong promises to be a festering wound.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6
    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    My prediction, Biden to win the popular vote by 4%, 51% to 47% but Trump to win the Electoral College 274 to 264 with Biden picking up Arizona and Pennsylvania and NE02 but Trump holding his other 2016 states

    https://www.270towin.com/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    MrEd said:


    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    Also because they're raising large piles of money...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,569
    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    Enthusiastic crowds mean nothing , as Jeremy Corbyn can tell you. And what crowds are you even comparing Biden’s too given he hasn’t held a rally in months due to COVID?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673

    Foxy said:

    How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    The description "Somalian" is in quotes, and the story seems to attribute it to a chatroom for security guards.
    He looks like a Somali in the picture on the front page of the Times.
    In cases like this i think it is important to be accurate and stick to facts, instead we get two extremes. Telegraph publishing gossip from a chatroom, while the BBC wont even say its a black man and they / Guardian cut the eye witness report to remove the clear accurate description of individual's appearance.
    The likes of the BBC and Guardian do themselves no favours. It’s clear from the pictures he is Black and, as Foxy says, he looks Somali from the pictures (but who knows). Trying to ignore the race issue just makes them look as though they are trying to hide something.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    In 2017, though, the polls were moving throughout the campaign. Here, nothing. Their immovability in the face of events is astonishing. (But which also reflects some of the changes wrought by CV19. We aren't going to bars and restaurants and complaining about the government or Biden or the riots. We're all at home. And that makes things different. It may mean, of course, that polls are wildly out. But then again, it may not.)

    Now, can Trump win? Absolutely. His voters are more fired up, and he just needs that one thing. But so far, it hasn't happened. Biden is anchored north of 50%, which is extremely unusual this far out. The last time a candidate was averaging north of fifty percent two months before polling day was, I think, Reagan in 1984.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678

    MrEd said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Well the US is also weighed down in the midst of a huge struggle over race and far left ideas. Neither of those go away with Biden.

    China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to do manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.
    Funnily enough, I think it’s the beginning of the end for China. It has been shown up to the rest of the world as a dissembling bully which acts in its own interests. It needed a few more years of everyone falling for the “Cuddly China” trick to be permanently embedded in Western society. Now, in the US and India at least (as well as much of the Anglosphere), there is a clear reticence about allowing China any leeway whatsoever.

    Also, the Chinese are running somewhat against time. It’s working age population is set to fall rapidly, its naval capabilities are not a match if the US did decide to go full out and it faces structural pressures at home.
    No world leader is going to stand up to them. Any talk of becoming less reliant on them just isn't going to fly. The public in the West won't suddenly accept more expensive goods in the midst of an economic recession / depression, further cementing their position in the world.

    And we see they are rapidly evolving far beyond being simply the workshop of the world. After stealing lots of IP, now putting huge resources into own CPUs, AI, etc, all the things that run the 21st Century.
    But they also have the baleful hand of demographics holding them back now. The Chinese working age population is now in decline. The benefits of taking people from the countryside to the cities is now behind them. It's all got to be productivity gains from this point, and that's a much harder path to tread.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 47,981
    edited September 6
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Well the US is also weighed down in the midst of a huge struggle over race and far left ideas. Neither of those go away with Biden.

    China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to do manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.
    Funnily enough, I think it’s the beginning of the end for China. It has been shown up to the rest of the world as a dissembling bully which acts in its own interests. It needed a few more years of everyone falling for the “Cuddly China” trick to be permanently embedded in Western society. Now, in the US and India at least (as well as much of the Anglosphere), there is a clear reticence about allowing China any leeway whatsoever.

    Also, the Chinese are running somewhat against time. It’s working age population is set to fall rapidly, its naval capabilities are not a match if the US did decide to go full out and it faces structural pressures at home.
    No world leader is going to stand up to them. Any talk of becoming less reliant on them just isn't going to fly. The public in the West won't suddenly except more expensive goods in the midst of an economic recession / depression, further cementing their position in the world.

    And we see they are rapidly evolving far beyond being simply the workshop of the world. After stealing lots of IP, now putting huge resources into own CPUs, AI, etc, all the things that run the 21st Century.
    They already are standing up to them. India has gone and banned another load of Chinese apps. Trump has forced a sale of TikTok ex-China. The UK has announced a retreat from using Huawei.

    As for the public accepting more expensive goods, if you are that negative, the consumer is not going to be buying goods full stop. It would be more of an issue if the world economy was fine and we were still buying tons of stuff. We are not. Households are hunkering down.

    Yes, the Chinese are putting tons of resources into AI, CPUs, have stolen lots of intellectual property etc but they face a major issue in that they are increasingly are being pushed out of scientific institutions (especially in the US) as Governments tighten visa requirements.

    Plus, Xi may be in trouble. He launched another recent purge and there are rumours many are unhappy, Hong Kong promises to be a festering wound.
    Selling TikTok is total distraction. Go and have a look at just how much the likes of Tencet own. When Trump wrongly said he was going to ban dealings with WeChat and all their subsidises, they quickly they had to reverse ferret as people in the know realised just how many US based companies would be screwed.

    Another point on China.

    I watched an interesting interview about Russian interference in the West. The general approach is that they identify underlying grievances and work at amplifying them.

    The interviewee went on to say that at the moment China have mainly deployed very old school tactics such as overt propaganda and comprising individuals as ways as influencing the West i.e. how Russia used to operate in the 80s.

    However, they are well aware of how Russia have used these approaches and as we know the Chinese are excellent at replicating established technology and improving on it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    In 2017, though, the polls were moving throughout the campaign. Here, nothing. Their immovability in the face of events is astonishing. (But which also reflects some of the changes wrought by CV19. We aren't going to bars and restaurants and complaining about the government or Biden or the riots. We're all at home. And that makes things different. It may mean, of course, that polls are wildly out. But then again, it may not.)

    Now, can Trump win? Absolutely. His voters are more fired up, and he just needs that one thing. But so far, it hasn't happened. Biden is anchored north of 50%, which is extremely unusual this far out. The last time a candidate was averaging north of fifty percent two months before polling day was, I think, Reagan in 1984.
    In 1984 Reagan got 59%, Biden is averaging 49.7% as of tonight

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678

    MrEd said:


    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    Also because they're raising large piles of money...
    There's no point in having money left after the election...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    My prediction, Biden to win the popular vote by 4%, 51% to 47% but Trump to win the Electoral College 274 to 264 with Biden picking up Arizona and Pennsylvania and NE02 but Trump holding his other 2016 states

    https://www.270towin.com/
    That's not an unreasonable view. Certainly in both 2012 and 2004, very few states changed compared to the previous election.

    My issue with that map is that it leaves lots of states where Trump keeps them on very narrow - perhaps 1% or less - margins. Wisconsin, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Michigan are all presumably very narrow holds.

    And it only takes one of those to inch over the line, and then suddenly it's a Biden victory. A point or two more, and suddenly it's a Biden whitewash.

    For context, the Brexit referendum in the UK was won by that kind of margin (52-48), and that had Leave winning in the majority of constituencies. Simply, at 51 vs 47, Biden is getting almost 10% more votes than Trump. That's pretty hard to overcome in what is effectively an FTPT election.
  • MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    Paradoxically, this is also 2017 but with Trump as May, with both failing to benefit from law and order concerns because first, they are already in power, and second, voters can clearly see they are actually making things worse.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,049
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Well the US is also weighed down in the midst of a huge struggle over race and far left ideas. Neither of those go away with Biden.

    China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to do manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.
    Funnily enough, I think it’s the beginning of the end for China. It has been shown up to the rest of the world as a dissembling bully which acts in its own interests. It needed a few more years of everyone falling for the “Cuddly China” trick to be permanently embedded in Western society. Now, in the US and India at least (as well as much of the Anglosphere), there is a clear reticence about allowing China any leeway whatsoever.

    Also, the Chinese are running somewhat against time. It’s working age population is set to fall rapidly, its naval capabilities are not a match if the US did decide to go full out and it faces structural pressures at home.
    No world leader is going to stand up to them. Any talk of becoming less reliant on them just isn't going to fly. The public in the West won't suddenly accept more expensive goods in the midst of an economic recession / depression, further cementing their position in the world.

    And we see they are rapidly evolving far beyond being simply the workshop of the world. After stealing lots of IP, now putting huge resources into own CPUs, AI, etc, all the things that run the 21st Century.
    But they also have the baleful hand of demographics holding them back now. The Chinese working age population is now in decline. The benefits of taking people from the countryside to the cities is now behind them. It's all got to be productivity gains from this point, and that's a much harder path to tread.
    They could encourage mass immigration from Africa?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:


    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    Also because they're raising large piles of money...
    There's no point in having money left after the election...
    Well, right. I think it's revealing that to find optimistic data points for Trump you have to resort to things like "his opponents are spending more money against him in some places than they planned".

    It's not a done deal but for the markets to treat this as a 50/50 shot is totally bananas.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673
    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    My prediction, Biden to win the popular vote by 4%, 51% to 47% but Trump to win the Electoral College 274 to 264 with Biden picking up Arizona and Pennsylvania and NE02 but Trump holding his other 2016 states

    https://www.270towin.com/
    I think Trump will hold PA and I suspect he will flip MN as well but broadly in your camp.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    In 2017, though, the polls were moving throughout the campaign. Here, nothing. Their immovability in the face of events is astonishing. (But which also reflects some of the changes wrought by CV19. We aren't going to bars and restaurants and complaining about the government or Biden or the riots. We're all at home. And that makes things different. It may mean, of course, that polls are wildly out. But then again, it may not.)

    Now, can Trump win? Absolutely. His voters are more fired up, and he just needs that one thing. But so far, it hasn't happened. Biden is anchored north of 50%, which is extremely unusual this far out. The last time a candidate was averaging north of fifty percent two months before polling day was, I think, Reagan in 1984.
    In 1984 Reagan got 59%, Biden is averaging 49.7% as of tonight

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
    Sorry I'm guilty of using the 538 poll of polls.

    But if you look on Wikipedia, Reagan was leading Mondale 54-55 to low 40s at this time in 1984. If you look back at all the polling averages has any challenger polled as consistently highly as Biden is now?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673

    MrEd said:


    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    Also because they're raising large piles of money...
    That’s true, Biden has been pulling in tons of money. There are definitely a ton of motivated anti-Trump people out there, the question is whether that is enough.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678
    edited September 6
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    My prediction, Biden to win the popular vote by 4%, 51% to 47% but Trump to win the Electoral College 274 to 264 with Biden picking up Arizona and Pennsylvania and NE02 but Trump holding his other 2016 states

    https://www.270towin.com/
    I think Trump will hold PA and I suspect he will flip MN as well but broadly in your camp.
    Minnesota swung very hard against the Republicans in 2018, with the Dems winning both Senate seats by about 20 points, and on Morning Consult's numbers, Trump's approval there is well below states like Colorado and Nevada.

    If I was looking at possible Trump pick ups, I'd look at Maine, Virginia and New Hampshire. All of those have much better favourables for the President than Minnesota, although I grant you that the disturbances there may have changed things.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6
    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    My prediction, Biden to win the popular vote by 4%, 51% to 47% but Trump to win the Electoral College 274 to 264 with Biden picking up Arizona and Pennsylvania and NE02 but Trump holding his other 2016 states

    https://www.270towin.com/
    I think Trump will hold PA and I suspect he will flip MN as well but broadly in your camp.
    I know you think Trump will win convincingly, I though think Biden will make gains but not enough to win but it will be the closest presidential election since Bush v Gore in 2000 and if Trump is re elected he will probably lose the popular vote again and thus be the first president to be relected without ever winning the popular vote
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:


    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    Also because they're raising large piles of money...
    There's no point in having money left after the election...
    Well, right. I think it's revealing that to find optimistic data points for Trump you have to resort to things like "his opponents are spending more money against him in some places than they planned".

    It's not a done deal but for the markets to treat this as a 50/50 shot is totally bananas.
    Fundamentally, you have to believe that: (a) the polls are more wrong that any time in recent history, (b) that they are definitely wrong in one particular direction, and (c) President Trump's electoral vote efficiency is going to go from extremely good to insanely good.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    Enthusiastic crowds mean nothing , as Jeremy Corbyn can tell you. And what crowds are you even comparing Biden’s too given he hasn’t held a rally in months due to COVID?
    When you have the Bernie Bros making ads about Biden being not great but he will do, it doesn’t suggest much enthusiasm. I do think one area where Biden is going to be weaker this time vs Clinton is in the Hispanic / Black vote but I think he will pick up more white voters.

    Re Corbyn, he didn’t but bear in mind the UK and US have two different electoral systems. FPTP got May her seats. If the US had a similar gap to the 2017 result - ie 2.4 pc - then Trump would be likely to be President again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 76,595
    edited September 6
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    In 2017, though, the polls were moving throughout the campaign. Here, nothing. Their immovability in the face of events is astonishing. (But which also reflects some of the changes wrought by CV19. We aren't going to bars and restaurants and complaining about the government or Biden or the riots. We're all at home. And that makes things different. It may mean, of course, that polls are wildly out. But then again, it may not.)

    Now, can Trump win? Absolutely. His voters are more fired up, and he just needs that one thing. But so far, it hasn't happened. Biden is anchored north of 50%, which is extremely unusual this far out. The last time a candidate was averaging north of fifty percent two months before polling day was, I think, Reagan in 1984.
    In 1984 Reagan got 59%, Biden is averaging 49.7% as of tonight

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
    Sorry I'm guilty of using the 538 poll of polls.

    But if you look on Wikipedia, Reagan was leading Mondale 54-55 to low 40s at this time in 1984. If you look back at all the polling averages has any challenger polled as consistently highly as Biden is now?
    No not since Reagan in 1980 but Clinton in 1992 once you exclude Perot had at least as big a lead over Bush Snr as Biden does over Trump and he was also challenging an incumbent POTUS
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    In 2017, though, the polls were moving throughout the campaign. Here, nothing. Their immovability in the face of events is astonishing. (But which also reflects some of the changes wrought by CV19. We aren't going to bars and restaurants and complaining about the government or Biden or the riots. We're all at home. And that makes things different. It may mean, of course, that polls are wildly out. But then again, it may not.)

    Now, can Trump win? Absolutely. His voters are more fired up, and he just needs that one thing. But so far, it hasn't happened. Biden is anchored north of 50%, which is extremely unusual this far out. The last time a candidate was averaging north of fifty percent two months before polling day was, I think, Reagan in 1984.
    In 1984 Reagan got 59%, Biden is averaging 49.7% as of tonight

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
    In 1984 Reagan wasn't polling 59% at this stage he was polling less than that. He gained share between now and the election as pretty much all candidates do as the don't knows, third parties etc get squeezed.

    Which implies Biden will most likely win an absolute majority of the popular vote. Apart from the extremely dodgy disputed election of 1874 there has never been a candidate who has won an absolute majority of the popular vote and not won the Electoral College too.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    My prediction, Biden to win the popular vote by 4%, 51% to 47% but Trump to win the Electoral College 274 to 264 with Biden picking up Arizona and Pennsylvania and NE02 but Trump holding his other 2016 states

    https://www.270towin.com/
    I think Trump will hold PA and I suspect he will flip MN as well but broadly in your camp.
    Minnesota swung very hard against the Republicans in 2018, with the Dems winning both Senate seats by about 20 points, and on Morning Consult's numbers, Trump's approval there is well below states like Colorado and Nevada.

    If I was looking at possible Trump pick ups, I'd look at Maine, Virginia and New Hampshire. All of those have much better favourables for the President than Minnesota, although I grant you that the disturbances there may have changed things.
    Virginia is my possible shock of the night given how hard there has been a backlash against the Democrat leadership there. I’m not sure Maine but NH could also be a surprise.

    With Minnesota, the riots are a factor but I think more important is the energy issue which is a major point in rural areas. The Democrats pro-green stance is unlikely to go down well.

    Interestingly, the MN Senate race has been moved from leans Democrat to toss up (in RCP).
  • MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    Enthusiastic crowds mean nothing , as Jeremy Corbyn can tell you. And what crowds are you even comparing Biden’s too given he hasn’t held a rally in months due to COVID?
    When you have the Bernie Bros making ads about Biden being not great but he will do, it doesn’t suggest much enthusiasm. I do think one area where Biden is going to be weaker this time vs Clinton is in the Hispanic / Black vote but I think he will pick up more white voters.

    Re Corbyn, he didn’t but bear in mind the UK and US have two different electoral systems. FPTP got May her seats. If the US had a similar gap to the 2017 result - ie 2.4 pc - then Trump would be likely to be President again.
    Trump and Corbyn are very alike. But Trump in 2016 was Corbyn's 2017.

    Trump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 673

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo.

    Except the EU has not had a good plague. Slow, bumbling, ineffectual. And their eventual response was another undemocratic lurch to fiscal Federalism.

    Asia is the only winner from Covid. Brexit seems irrelevant, if anything, rather than good or bad.
    I fully expect Chinese companies to be on a buying spree of weakened European businesses over the next few years, like they have already been doing with games companies.
    Covid - at least so far - has seen the definitive shift in global power, from west to east. America is led by a clown, who may be replaced by a dolt. China’s governance is deeply flawed, but it is still ascendant, and led by an elite that is effective, albeit cruel and ruthless.

    2020 was the end of the American century, which began, rather neatly, in 1919
    Well the US is also weighed down in the midst of a huge struggle over race and far left ideas. Neither of those go away with Biden.

    China of course doesn't have those issues. They just lock up any potential troublesome individuals like the Muslims or the Hong Kong protesters. And of course happy to do manipulate their currency to their advantage, as and when required.
    Funnily enough, I think it’s the beginning of the end for China. It has been shown up to the rest of the world as a dissembling bully which acts in its own interests. It needed a few more years of everyone falling for the “Cuddly China” trick to be permanently embedded in Western society. Now, in the US and India at least (as well as much of the Anglosphere), there is a clear reticence about allowing China any leeway whatsoever.

    Also, the Chinese are running somewhat against time. It’s working age population is set to fall rapidly, its naval capabilities are not a match if the US did decide to go full out and it faces structural pressures at home.
    No world leader is going to stand up to them. Any talk of becoming less reliant on them just isn't going to fly. The public in the West won't suddenly except more expensive goods in the midst of an economic recession / depression, further cementing their position in the world.

    And we see they are rapidly evolving far beyond being simply the workshop of the world. After stealing lots of IP, now putting huge resources into own CPUs, AI, etc, all the things that run the 21st Century.
    They already are standing up to them. India has gone and banned another load of Chinese apps. Trump has forced a sale of TikTok ex-China. The UK has announced a retreat from using Huawei.

    As for the public accepting more expensive goods, if you are that negative, the consumer is not going to be buying goods full stop. It would be more of an issue if the world economy was fine and we were still buying tons of stuff. We are not. Households are hunkering down.

    Yes, the Chinese are putting tons of resources into AI, CPUs, have stolen lots of intellectual property etc but they face a major issue in that they are increasingly are being pushed out of scientific institutions (especially in the US) as Governments tighten visa requirements.

    Plus, Xi may be in trouble. He launched another recent purge and there are rumours many are unhappy, Hong Kong promises to be a festering wound.
    Selling TikTok is total distraction. Go and have a look at just how much the likes of Tencet own. When Trump wrongly said he was going to ban dealings with WeChat and all their subsidises, they quickly they had to reverse ferret as people in the know realised just how many US based companies would be screwed.

    Another point on China.

    I watched an interesting interview about Russian interference in the West. The general approach is that they identify underlying grievances and work at amplifying them.

    The interviewee went on to say that at the moment China have mainly deployed very old school tactics such as overt propaganda and comprising individuals as ways as influencing the West i.e. how Russia used to operate in the 80s.

    However, they are well aware of how Russia have used these approaches and as we know the Chinese are excellent at replicating established technology and improving on it.
    I saw that interview in Chinese propaganda. They could possibly replicate the Russian methods but I have my doubts. An anecdote to explain.

    I was speaking with the head of one of the Oxbridge Colleges who explained that the Chinese students stick together as a group, make no efforts to integrate and are clearly looking to take knowledge back to China. That’s not really a group that does subtle. And, unlike with Russian communism, there are very few idealists about Chinese communism.

    Re Tik Tok WeChat etc, it is a big deal and many American tech firms are realising they need to disengage themselves from Chinese tech ASAP. As I said, the Chinese could have done with a few more years to execute their strategy.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    Andy_JS said:


    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    Not ideal I know but in Chrome, open the console with Ctrl+Shift+J, then
    document.getElementById('vanilla-comments').getElementsByTagName('iframe')[0].scrolling="yes";
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,146
    HYUFD said:

    It is not far out of tune with Tory voters though, just 36% of Tory voters want Biden to win the Presidency compared to 75% of Labour voters who want Biden to win.
    Tory voters may not greatly admire Trump but that does not mean they want Biden to win either

    Is "neither" an option?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,022
    edited September 6
    I would like Biden to win.
    It would annoy all the right people.
    That appears to be the only metric that matters.
    Trigger them Cons .
    Or some such.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,146

    How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    Has Justin Trudeau got an alibi?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,146
    edited September 7

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    Enthusiastic crowds mean nothing , as Jeremy Corbyn can tell you. And what crowds are you even comparing Biden’s too given he hasn’t held a rally in months due to COVID?
    When you have the Bernie Bros making ads about Biden being not great but he will do, it doesn’t suggest much enthusiasm. I do think one area where Biden is going to be weaker this time vs Clinton is in the Hispanic / Black vote but I think he will pick up more white voters.

    Re Corbyn, he didn’t but bear in mind the UK and US have two different electoral systems. FPTP got May her seats. If the US had a similar gap to the 2017 result - ie 2.4 pc - then Trump would be likely to be President again.
    Trump and Corbyn are very alike. But Trump in 2016 was Corbyn's 2017.

    Trump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.
    Tump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.

    Biden 2020 is shaping up to being Theresa May 2017.

    Who wins that election?
  • How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    Has Justin Trudeau got an alibi?
    Naughty.
  • How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    Has Justin Trudeau got an alibi?

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    Enthusiastic crowds mean nothing , as Jeremy Corbyn can tell you. And what crowds are you even comparing Biden’s too given he hasn’t held a rally in months due to COVID?
    When you have the Bernie Bros making ads about Biden being not great but he will do, it doesn’t suggest much enthusiasm. I do think one area where Biden is going to be weaker this time vs Clinton is in the Hispanic / Black vote but I think he will pick up more white voters.

    Re Corbyn, he didn’t but bear in mind the UK and US have two different electoral systems. FPTP got May her seats. If the US had a similar gap to the 2017 result - ie 2.4 pc - then Trump would be likely to be President again.
    Trump and Corbyn are very alike. But Trump in 2016 was Corbyn's 2017.

    Trump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.
    Tump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.

    Biden 2020 is shaping up to being Theresa May 2017.

    Who wins that election?
    The Chinese.
  • MangoMango Posts: 749
    HYUFD said:

    I think the voters understand that leaders say nice things about other leaders, especially ones that are notoriously self-centred and narcissistic.

    However I do think if Biden wins the whole populism thing will start to look ridiculous, and Britain will be stuck with this an increasingly embarrassing Brexit, like a bad tattoo

    Even if Biden wins there will still be populist Presidents of Poland, Brazil, and the Philippines and a populist Indian PM and a pro Brexit Australian PM it will not have disappeared.

    If Biden loses and Trump wins again of course that would be devastating for UK Labour but the Tories would cope and Boris would deal with him as he has done before and build a solid relationship with President Trump towards a UK and US FTA
    Sometimes it really is like the 1930s didn't happen. Well done.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 32,678

    How do they know he is Somali & able to rule out various motivations, despite not knowing who he is?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/multiple-stabbings-birmingham-city-centre/

    Has Justin Trudeau got an alibi?
    :lol:
  • USA President betting -- Biden's shortened; new polls? Risk premium remains.

    Biden 1.94
    Dem 1.87

    Trump 2.14
    Rep 2.12
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,001

    USA President betting -- Biden's shortened; new polls? Risk premium remains.

    Biden 1.94
    Dem 1.87

    Trump 2.14
    Rep 2.12

    Trump hasn't had a good poll for a few days. That probably explains it.
  • Andy_JS said:

    USA President betting -- Biden's shortened; new polls? Risk premium remains.

    Biden 1.94
    Dem 1.87

    Trump 2.14
    Rep 2.12

    Trump hasn't had a good poll for a few days. That probably explains it.
    This is within the last couple of hours -- though I guess you might be right and it is just older polls dropping out of the moving averages.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    Andy_JS said:

    USA President betting -- Biden's shortened; new polls? Risk premium remains.

    Biden 1.94
    Dem 1.87

    Trump 2.14
    Rep 2.12

    Trump hasn't had a good poll for a few days. That probably explains it.
    Yup, it's not much but there's a slight uptick for Biden you can see on the Economist graph "chance of winning" graph after a couple of weeks of decline:
    https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

    PS Whatever you think about their projections, their graphs are really nice. If you click on "polls" for "Modelled popular vote on each day" it has a great little chart that shows you the latest polls in and allows you to easily compare them to the previous polls from the same pollster:
    https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president#modelled-popular-vote-on-each-day
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,095
    What planet is Bozo on? Or from?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,095
    Nigelb said:
    The top five were New Zealand, Senegal, Iceland, Denmark, and Saudi.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 53,971
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: an unexpected turn of events yesterday. I had hopes of my bet on Ferrari not scoring coming off but didn't expect it to be quite so emphatic.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 3,284
    Nigelb said:
    Corey Lewandowski is probably the most repellant person I have ever met.
    On topic: why was our PM kissing the US ambassador's arse? Surely normal protocol would be for it to be the other way round?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,533
    Nigelb said:
    It must really suck for the young relatives of these Trump enthusiasts, if you want to stop them putting themselves in danger you've got to persuade them to ignore both their TV and the President of the United States of America.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,180
    Scott_xP said:
    First Tulsa, then this. It's magnificent.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,180

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    Enthusiastic crowds mean nothing , as Jeremy Corbyn can tell you. And what crowds are you even comparing Biden’s too given he hasn’t held a rally in months due to COVID?
    When you have the Bernie Bros making ads about Biden being not great but he will do, it doesn’t suggest much enthusiasm. I do think one area where Biden is going to be weaker this time vs Clinton is in the Hispanic / Black vote but I think he will pick up more white voters.

    Re Corbyn, he didn’t but bear in mind the UK and US have two different electoral systems. FPTP got May her seats. If the US had a similar gap to the 2017 result - ie 2.4 pc - then Trump would be likely to be President again.
    Trump and Corbyn are very alike. But Trump in 2016 was Corbyn's 2017.

    Trump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.
    That's an interesting comparison. Nevermind the politics, both are equally toxic.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 3,180
    I still think Biden has turned out to be an unexpected masterstroke. No one in the US anticipated the coronavirus pandemic to be quite so disruptive. Biden is solid against Trump's erratic (frankly mental) behaviour.

    Most of all, because he served as VP under Obama it nullifies the incumbency factor.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,690
    Well, it's a bright and cheerful looking morning here. But, apart from the just-announced arrest, what a depressing set of headlines and comments.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,198
    Scott_xP said:
    Does Dom's genius know no bounds?

    I am still figuring out whether tearing up both the WA and the GFA is a masterstroke or utter folly with potentially dangerous ramifications.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 40,725
    edited September 7

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like Biden is heading for victory at the moment but it would only take a relatively modest 2-3% swing back to Trump to make it 50/50. That's how it seems at present

    PS: is it possible to view all the comments on Vanilla comments?

    The polls definitely point to that. The actions of the Biden camp suggest they have some concerns. They have started their TV ads in Minnesota a week early. And they are doing more Black voter outreach than normal. That might be because of turnout fears or because they think Trump is picking off a few percentage points.

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think this one has got 2017 with Biden as May written all over it - a candidate seemingly ahead but who doesn’t generate much enthusiasm. Put it another way. If it wasn’t for the published polls, what would make you think Biden is the favourite? He pulls now where near the crowds that Trump does; the recent snippets from election results (House special elections etc) have been mixed.
    Enthusiastic crowds mean nothing , as Jeremy Corbyn can tell you. And what crowds are you even comparing Biden’s too given he hasn’t held a rally in months due to COVID?
    When you have the Bernie Bros making ads about Biden being not great but he will do, it doesn’t suggest much enthusiasm. I do think one area where Biden is going to be weaker this time vs Clinton is in the Hispanic / Black vote but I think he will pick up more white voters.

    Re Corbyn, he didn’t but bear in mind the UK and US have two different electoral systems. FPTP got May her seats. If the US had a similar gap to the 2017 result - ie 2.4 pc - then Trump would be likely to be President again.
    Trump and Corbyn are very alike. But Trump in 2016 was Corbyn's 2017.

    Trump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.
    Tump 2020 is shaping up to being Corbyn 2019.

    Biden 2020 is shaping up to being Theresa May 2017.

    Who wins that election?
    I don't think Biden is comparable to May, he isn't taking anything for granted, nor threatening to take his supporters homes.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Does Dom's genius know no bounds?

    I am still figuring out whether tearing up both the WA and the GFA is a masterstroke or utter folly with potentially dangerous ramifications.
    It's not being torn up, it will still be there.

    UK law would just take precedence in UK courts. As it should.
This discussion has been closed.