I think it's human nature to assume that the grass is always greener just over the hill. The problem with migrating is that it's not the same as going on holiday - just ask all the British people who left for Spain, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus and have seen their income and property values collapse.
Yes, you have the better weather and that's a help but you have to live and even if the langusge isn't different, the culture is. I love southern California and would gladly go there on holiday any time but I don't think I could live there. One day, Mrs Stodge and I will decamp for New Zealand (her native country) and I'm under no illusions that it will be difficult for me.
Even though I live in East Ham which is as cosmopolitan as it gets, I suspect I would find New Zealand more different and less British than is generally imagined over here. Those who, for example, go to Australia and assume it's like Britain but with more sunshine often find it a real shock to the system.
BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.
Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
Put your childish xenophobia to one side for a moment.
Conduct a poll in any major western country and you are going to get hundreds of millions "intending to come to the UK" for some reason or other. A similar poll in France would be illuminating. For you.
Get a grip.
Around 10% of France is intending to come to the UK? Evidence please.
You don't think 10% of France would want to come to the UK?
There have been several reports that Alastair Darling has identified Tony Blair to be the figurehead of the Unionist campaign in the upcoming referendum.
Will the participation of the most electorally successful politician of his era, be a help or a hindrance?
Over at CIF, this move is seen as Labour being in denial.
Daily Mail Online @MailOnline 38m John Cherry, the race-storm Tory councillor who doesn't want 'coloured' pupils on his doorstep, forced to resign http://bit.ly/14IqWtb
He really should've said "Bulgarians or Romanians" he'd get cheered to the rafters on here.
Yes but at least on PB we don't hear morons banging on about 'racial purity', do we?
FPT If you average out the polls from last summer, and compare with the latest averages, it looks pretty clear that almost all of the rise in the UKIP vote is coming from Labour...Compared to summer 2012 the Tories are only down about 1% and the LibDems level or maybe up slightly. If this position holds and UKIP continues to hoover up the "unhappy but still don't really trust Labour" vote, perhaps Ukip will rescue the Tories rather than be the origin of their demise?
Welcome IanB2!
I suppose it depends where these voters came from in the first place. The budget last spring resulted in a fairly chunky drop in Tory support so relative to 2010 the situation is roughly one where Labour are up >5% due to left-wing Lib Dems and the Tories are down ~5% due tot he Omnishambles refugees.
If Labour were to pick up all the voters that the Conservatives and Lib Dems have lost then they would be in landslide territory, and so the relative success of UKIP in picking up some of these voters would rescue the Tories to the extent that PM Miliband would have either a modest majority, or be forced into Coalition with the Lib Dems, rather than a landslide majority of more than 100.
Perhaps, in time, Gordon Brown will reflect with some satisfaction that he managed to prevent Cameron from winning an outright Tory majority, but I suspect that he still resents being voted out of No. 10. Similarly, the likelihood that Tories would thank UKIP from rescuing them from a Labour landslide, using the reasoning you present, is I suggest slim-to-none (for a few decades at least).
'BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following'
Was New Labour's 2003 figure of 13,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe a lie or just incompetence?
Camerons idiot promise, a "bare knuckle fight" to keep every DGH open.
Even the ones that kill thousands ? Even Brad Pitt in Snatch would throw in the towel on that one.
Which DGH killed thousands?
I've seen no evidence of that at all. Link please.
Since you are one of the Stafford-deniers ("only one person dead" claimed, as unsourced as the other claims), do you admit that things went badly wrong at Stafford, and that the experiences of patients as shown in the various reports (and to some members of my own family) were horrific?
Given that poor treatment and the various stories, do you really think that there would have been no excess deaths?
And whose fault was the awful treatment? And if it is the 'system', as claimed by Francis, whose responsibility was that system?
UKIP are probably favourites to win the Shalford Division as the Conservatives, who held the seat very comfortable, failed to get their candidate registered!!
I would guess that Farage's other hope is in Weybridge where the incumbent (but deselected Tory) Councillor is now re-standing as UKIP. My hunch is he will be third.
The Grand Chamber of the European Court of Human Rights yesterday: the government had been expected to lose:
In today’s Grand Chamber judgment in the case of Animal Defenders International v. the United Kingdom (application no. 48876/08), which is final, the European Court of Human Rights held, by nine votes to eight, that there had been: no violation of Article 10 (freedom of expression) of the European Convention on Human Rights.
The case concerned the complaint by a non-governmental organisation that it had been denied the possibility to advertise on TV or radio.
The Court noted that both parties maintained that they were protecting the democratic process. It found in particular that: the reviews of the ban by both parliamentary and judicial bodies had been exacting and pertinent, taking into account the European Court’s caselaw; the ban only applied to advertising and the applicant NGO had access to alternative media, both broadcast and non-broadcast; and, the lack of European consensus on how to regulate paid political advertising in broadcasting meant that the UK Government had more room for manoeuvre when deciding on such matters as restricting public interest debate. Overall, the Court found that the reasons given to justify the ban were convincing and that the ban did not therefore go too far in restricting the right to participate in public debate.
UKIP are probably favourites to win the Shalford Division as the Conservatives, who held the seat very comfortable, failed to get their candidate registered!!
Indeed.
An ‘administrative error’ has left Shalford voters without a Conservative candidate in the forthcoming Surrey County Council election. The Shalford division is regarded as a safe Tory seat. Andrew Barrand, the election agent responsible, has resigned.
'According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, social security benefits (not including net public sector pensions) will cost £180 billion this year, rising to £198 billion by 2017-18. Add on tax credits and the bill shoots up to £232 billion. This is by far government’s biggest commitment, dwarfing the £137 billion it currently spends on health.
The trouble is, millions, billions, trillions are lost in the fog of political rhetoric. Thus Labour invites us to believe that a fresh bankers’ bonus levy and the reintroduction of the 50p top rate of tax will foot the bill for a swift return to Gordon Brown’s Magic Kingdom. This is nonsense. The bankers’ levy raised about £2 billion.
There is reasonable doubt that the 50p rate delivered anything at all, but even on Labour’s own estimates it would not have produced much more than £3 billion. Between them, they add up to little more than a welfare rounding error'.
Camerons idiot promise, a "bare knuckle fight" to keep every DGH open.
Even the ones that kill thousands ? Even Brad Pitt in Snatch would throw in the towel on that one.
Which DGH killed thousands?
I've seen no evidence of that at all. Link please.
Since you are one of the Stafford-deniers ("only one person dead" claimed, as unsourced as the other claims), do you admit that things went badly wrong at Stafford, and that the experiences of patients as shown in the various reports (and to some members of my own family) were horrific?
Given that poor treatment and the various stories, do you really think that there would have been no excess deaths?
And whose fault was the awful treatment? And if it is the 'system', as claimed by Francis, whose responsibility was that system?
Actually, the "one death, if that" claim IS sourced. You can read it here:
But the Tory faction, as ever living in their own little universe, have run off on the "bad nurses" meme, whereas the facts and the Francis report zero in on lack of staffing (implying more money needed - common sense really).
This idea of crowdsourcing commitments has already been tried once at the Parliamentary level by Stephen Pound, who agreed to put forward a Private Member's Bill on the basis of the proposal that found most favour with Radio 4 listeners.
Magnificent rant from Peter Lilley over the delusions of some in HMG on our role in Global Climate Change:
"Criminologists have observed that the victims of confidence tricksters are often willing—indeed, eager—to believe the story to which they fall victim, and the more absurd, fantastic or fabulous the story, the more willing they are to believe it. The report is an example of a confidence trick that has been willingly absorbed by the Government and members of the Committee. It contains all the characteristics necessary for the sort of fairy tale in which one wants to believe: it has a faraway country, mysterious powers that we attribute to ourselves, and pots of gold—green gold—at the end of the rainbow.
The first delusion affirmed by the report is the delusion of power. It is a strange hangover from liberal imperialism that the British intellectual classes believe that they can still dominate the world—that the world is anxious to hear from them, and will jump to attention at their every word and follow their every command. Take the opening words of the report:
“China is central to global efforts to tackle climate change”—
true, but it continues, and I ask Members to savour these words—
“and should be at the heart of HMG’s climate change mitigation strategy.”
What imperialist arrogance and what delusions of grandeur that the United Kingdom, a nation of 65 million people off the coast of Europe, could somehow direct, guide or in any substantive way influence the policies of the largest nation in the world, with 1.3 billion people, on the other side of the globe.
How are we to achieve that remarkable feat? The summary refers to
“our leadership role in China”.
Members should also savour those words. I read about the change of leadership in China last year, but I did not realise that that involved the replacement of Xi Jin Ping by “Greg Bar Ker” and “Ed Da Vey”—they apparently now have a leadership role in China to which the Chinese are now anxious to respond.
Lilley is on record as dismissing policy measures that would benefit future generations. Presumably because he'll be dead by then so he doesnt care. Delingpole's views are so unpopular he had to withdraw from a by-election to save himself from embarrassment.
South Shields - my big bet is on the monkey to come 2nd to labour.
Coral were offering 50/1, now down to 33/1 (29/1 on betfair).
Working in Monkey's favour:
Well known Former councillor & knows how to run a campaign. Appeals to the anti-politics mood - fishing in the same pond as UKIP The threshold for 2nd could feasibly be as low as 2500-3000 votes, depending on turnout. UKIP's ground game untested in SS. Ukip don't appear to be throwing everything at SS. Large BNP vote in 2010 - BNP standing again (at the expense of potential UKIP votes) No other credible independents standing. Quite a large "Independent" vote historically in SS.
Against:
Stopped blogging in 2009. Yesterdays hero. He's a bit of a tw@t Sworn enemy of the Sheilds Gazette - Struggling to get local media coverage. limited resources
It's probably money thrown down the drain, but at 33/1 IMO the monkey's worth a punt.
'According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, social security benefits (not including net public sector pensions) will cost £180 billion this year, rising to £198 billion by 2017-18. Add on tax credits and the bill shoots up to £232 billion. This is by far government’s biggest commitment, dwarfing the £137 billion it currently spends on health.
The trouble is, millions, billions, trillions are lost in the fog of political rhetoric. Thus Labour invites us to believe that a fresh bankers’ bonus levy and the reintroduction of the 50p top rate of tax will foot the bill for a swift return to Gordon Brown’s Magic Kingdom. This is nonsense. The bankers’ levy raised about £2 billion.
There is reasonable doubt that the 50p rate delivered anything at all, but even on Labour’s own estimates it would not have produced much more than £3 billion. Between them, they add up to little more than a welfare rounding error'.
The simple fact is we can not afford our pensions.
Camerons idiot promise, a "bare knuckle fight" to keep every DGH open.
Even the ones that kill thousands ? Even Brad Pitt in Snatch would throw in the towel on that one.
Which DGH killed thousands?
I've seen no evidence of that at all. Link please.
Since you are one of the Stafford-deniers ("only one person dead" claimed, as unsourced as the other claims), do you admit that things went badly wrong at Stafford, and that the experiences of patients as shown in the various reports (and to some members of my own family) were horrific?
Given that poor treatment and the various stories, do you really think that there would have been no excess deaths?
And whose fault was the awful treatment? And if it is the 'system', as claimed by Francis, whose responsibility was that system?
Actually, the "one death, if that" claim IS sourced. You can read it here:
But the Tory faction, as ever living in their own little universe, have run off on the "bad nurses" meme, whereas the facts and the Francis report zero in on lack of staffing (implying more money needed - common sense really).
Yes, I read that link, and fundamentally disagree with it. If you cannot see the fallacy in "60 such requests were received – which already puts a massive question mark against the figures of 400-1200 ‘excess deaths’.", then there is no hope for you.
The treatment was worse than 'shoddy' - read the blooming reports. And you are very much cherry-picking the conclusions of the Francis report by mentioning just the staffing angle. It was a systematic failure from top to bottom.
The truth is that many staff - nurses and doctors - treated patients with staggering levels of complacency and lack of compassion. And that is down to a failure of every single one of those members of staff.
Shame on every single member of staff who mistreated a patient. They should not be in the medical profession.
And it happened under *your* party. Labour. No wonder you're trying to sweep it under the carpet.
And yet earlier in this thread you laugh at someone who had the perfectly understandable (if incorrect) concern about whether their children got autism due to MMR, yet gloss over the appalling situation at Stafford and, I have no doubt, the many excess deaths that occurred there.
Yes, I'm angry when little ***ts like you try to gloss over what happened at Stafford. Because some members of my family had to be treated there, and got some staggeringly poor treatment by nurses. But that'd just be a Tory anecdote, right?
'According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, social security benefits (not including net public sector pensions) will cost £180 billion this year, rising to £198 billion by 2017-18. Add on tax credits and the bill shoots up to £232 billion. This is by far government’s biggest commitment, dwarfing the £137 billion it currently spends on health.
The trouble is, millions, billions, trillions are lost in the fog of political rhetoric. Thus Labour invites us to believe that a fresh bankers’ bonus levy and the reintroduction of the 50p top rate of tax will foot the bill for a swift return to Gordon Brown’s Magic Kingdom. This is nonsense. The bankers’ levy raised about £2 billion.
There is reasonable doubt that the 50p rate delivered anything at all, but even on Labour’s own estimates it would not have produced much more than £3 billion. Between them, they add up to little more than a welfare rounding error'.
The simple fact is we can not afford our pensions.
Yet thousands are still employed by the state on unaffordable defined benefit pensions. The true cost of which is fired into the future.
The elite feathering their own nest at the expense of us.
Should have been stopped May 2010 for all new hires.
Just to make it clear, this is BenM's definition of 'shoddy treatment':
The stories behind the harm are staggering. An old man forced to stay on a commode for 55 minutes wearing only a pyjama top; a woman whose legs were “red raw” because of the effect of her uncleaned faeces; piles of soiled sheets and vomit bowls left at the end of beds, a woman arrived at 10am to find her 96-year old mother-in-law “completely naked… and covered with faeces… It was in her hair, her nails, her hands and on all the cot sides… it was literally everywhere and it was dried.
Another woman who found her mother with faeces under her nails asked for them to be cut, but was told that it was “not in the nurses’ remit to cut patients’ nails”.
Should have been stopped May 2010 for all new hires.
The net cost of public service pensions is forecast by the OBR to fall from 2% of GDP to 0.9% of GDP by 2061-62. If that's unaffordable then everything is unaffordable.
"Alistair Darling is respected and admired by politicians of all persuasions. He is well liked by the commentariat. He negotiated the years of the Blair/Brown psychodramas with aplomb. Or, to put it another way, he’s not Ed Balls.
But our former chancellor has one fatal flaw. He’s our former chancellor."
Should have been stopped May 2010 for all new hires.
The net cost of public service pensions is forecast by the OBR to fall from 2% of GDP to 0.9% of GDP by 2061-62. If that's unaffordable then everything is unaffordable.
If - and a big if you believe those numbers it is 0.9% then it is huge - it should be zero.
Even in 50 years we'll be paying out for work that has already been done in the past.
It is masking the true cost of public sector employment.
That's not your view though, is it? Your view is that they should have DC schemes. DC schemes have a non-zero cost (and, by 2061-62, that could easily be more than 0.9% of GDP). And, of course, DC schemes are unaffordable today. Which is why Cameron quickly backed-down from his suggestion that they be introduced.
Camerons idiot promise, a "bare knuckle fight" to keep every DGH open.
Even the ones that kill thousands ? Even Brad Pitt in Snatch would throw in the towel on that one.
Which DGH killed thousands?
I've seen no evidence of that at all. Link please.
Since you are one of the Stafford-deniers ("only one person dead" claimed, as unsourced as the other claims), do you admit that things went badly wrong at Stafford, and that the experiences of patients as shown in the various reports (and to some members of my own family) were horrific?
Given that poor treatment and the various stories, do you really think that there would have been no excess deaths?
And whose fault was the awful treatment? And if it is the 'system', as claimed by Francis, whose responsibility was that system?
Actually, the "one death, if that" claim IS sourced. You can read it here:
But the Tory faction, as ever living in their own little universe, have run off on the "bad nurses" meme, whereas the facts and the Francis report zero in on lack of staffing (implying more money needed - common sense really).
And to continue exposing your stupidity, read your link. Dr Laker came across 'perhaps one such (excess) death" from examining 40-50 cases. That's a staggeringly small sample size given the number of patients, and the sample selection method itself is questionable.
That's not your view though, is it? Your view is that they should have DC schemes. DC schemes have a non-zero cost (and, by 2061-62, that could easily be more than 0.9% of GDP). And, of course, DC schemes are unaffordable today. Which is why Cameron quickly backed-down from his suggestion that they be introduced.
DC schemes are only "unaffordable" today if you want to assure the fat cat pensions that are currently doled out.
Private sector companies with DC schemes pay £0 for the ongoing pensions of ex employees - that should be the target.
@Pong - It's money down the drain. There's a big psychological difference between 'the mysterious Mr Monkey', whose identiy the Council have been wasting money trying to unmask, and the more prosaic Ahmed Khan, ex-Councillor:
Private sector companies with DC schemes pay £0 for the ongoing pensions of ex employees - that should be the target.
So you'd happily pay more than 0.9% of GDP in pensions to current employees in 2061-62 just to make a stand on pre-funding pension liabilities? A stand that would require further spending cuts and / or borrowing today. Interesting.
And Ms Trimmingham has been enriching lawyers too:
Carina Trimingham, 44, faces a legal bill of up to £1 million after claiming that repeated references to her appearance and sexuality in 65 articles published since her adulterous affair with the former Energy Secretary was disclosed were “highly unpleasant and hurtful”.
Private sector companies with DC schemes pay £0 for the ongoing pensions of ex employees - that should be the target.
So you'd happily pay more than 0.9% of GDP in pensions to current employees in 2061-62 just to make a stand on pre-funding pension liabilities? A stand that would require further spending cuts and / or borrowing today. Interesting.
As I said Neil - I don't agree with your premise that the output of pensions have to be maintained at current levels.
Employee puts in around 5%, Employer around 10% into a privately managed pot - you gets what you gets at the end like the rest of us - top up at will if you like.
If that means it is more expensive to hire a diversity co-ordinator then well - welcome to the real world.
By 2100 the ongoing cost for previous employees would be zero.
By 2100 the ongoing cost for previous employees would be zero.
But the overall cost could be higher. You'd happily put up the cost of public service pensions just to make some kind of point about pre-funding liabilities. I think you can see why none of the main political parties have adopted your approach once they thought about it.
While psephologists will be studying the impact of UKIP on the Labour vote in South Shields anthropologists observing PB.ers have been scratching their heads over a much more long lasting phenomena. Is there any linkage between Tim's obsession with Osborne and TSE's obsession with Woolas?
"Whereas a majority of homes in most countries are delivered by self-build housing, in the UK it is just 10% - of a smaller total. ... The problem is that the planning system just doesn’t work in terms of delivering land."
"Whereas a majority of homes in most countries are delivered by self-build housing, in the UK it is just 10% - of a smaller total. ... The problem is that the planning system just doesn’t work in terms of delivering land."
I suspect you'll find that in most of those countries buying a plot of land with planning permission then going and choosing a house from a builder's catalogue counts as "self build"
Yeah, that's how it works around here. Basically the house is made in a factory, the customer chooses the various options and the people on the site just have to put the pieces together according to what boxes they ticked.
That might be a good way to deal with the nimbys, though. Give them a catalogue of 20 houses, let the local busybodies cross out the half that they think are most "out of character with the area" or whatever and let the customer pick one from the 10 that are left.
By 2100 the ongoing cost for previous employees would be zero.
But the overall cost could be higher. You'd happily put up the cost of public service pensions just to make some kind of point about pre-funding liabilities. I think you can see why none of the main political parties have adopted your approach once they thought about it.
Wait- if defined benefits are cheaper why does the private sector not use them ?
Answer - they aren't. You want to maintain the current ponzi scheme -where costs are kicked into the future away from the point of employment to general taxation - fair enough - but don't try and claim it is cheaper in the long run.
By 2100 the ongoing cost for previous employees would be zero.
But the overall cost could be higher. You'd happily put up the cost of public service pensions just to make some kind of point about pre-funding liabilities. I think you can see why none of the main political parties have adopted your approach once they thought about it.
Wait- if defined benefits are cheaper why does the private sector not use them ?
Answer - they aren't. You want to maintain the current ponzi scheme -where costs are kicked into the future away from the point of employment to general taxation - fair enough - but don't try and claim it is cheaper in the long run.
The accountancy can be more creative with defined benefit schemes. And there is inherently more uncertainty.
but don't try and claim it is cheaper in the long run.
It is clearly more affordable in the short-term. My point about the long-term is that you have no idea whether your alternative was more or less affordable by 2061-62.
You are completely driven by dogma and refuse to be swayed by the evidence. In this sense you are making David Cameron look good. He proposed DC pensions for public servants but quickly changed his mind when he realised what a bad idea that would be.
'BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following'
Was New Labour's 2003 figure of 13,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe a lie or just incompetence?
John,on your Question I'll give you some help,didn't the labour government tell us they wouldn't be a bullet fired in Afghanistan ;-)
The problem with the Royal College of Nursing statement and the nurses who were on 5 live earlier today is that they do not see anything wrong at all with the way nurses carry out their duties in any hospital and at anytime. The RCN are trying to blame the government totally for Stafford and are criticizing the Governments plans for nurses to work as care assistants for a year, as a complete lack of care was a major criticism in the Stafford report. They do not see that any improvements need to be made by nurses and that their performance is excellent.
I do not know whether the Governments ideas will work, but at least they are trying something. To have such a deluded view of their profession that the RCN and their membership has is laughable. I think they are caught up in the public's affection for nurses, that they cannot see what is in plain sight.
My wife is a nurse so I do have some knowledge, but obviously just PB tory anecdotes.
but don't try and claim it is cheaper in the long run.
It is clearly more affordable in the short-term. My point about the long-term is that you have no idea whether your alternative was more or less affordable by 2061-62.
You are completely driven by dogma and refuse to be swayed by the evidence. In this sense you are making David Cameron look good. He proposed DC pensions for public servants but quickly changed his mind when he realised what a bad idea that would be.
Dave pussying out of short term pain for long term gain is hardly an endorsement.
The situation is no different to that faced by private sector firms over the last 20 years - and the vast majority have switched as it reduces their long term liabilities.
True cost of employment would lead to reduced public sector hires and more outsourcing - again reducing liabilities to ultimately zero.
Ed Miliband admits to meeting George Galloway prompting backlash from his own MPs
The possibility of a rapprochement between the party’s hierarchy and Mr Galloway was criticised by some Labour MPs. One MP said: “It is political suicide to have anything to do with George Galloway.”
Dave pussying out of short term pain for long term gain is hardly an endorsement.
You havent quantified any long term gain.
I think it is very likely that your proposals for DC schemes at 5% / 10% would be more expensive (as a proportion of GDP) than the current plans in 2061-62. (For this to be the case public sector pay bill would have to be > 9% of GDP then - something I dont have figures on but which certainly seems very plausible.)
"One Cabinet minister said it should now “move on” to more “traditional” Conservative issues such as welfare reform and immigration control. “The ‘toxic’ issue has been neutralised,” the minister said. “Now we can move on to the red meat Conservative issues.”
Grayling?
In fairness the locals PPB was all about the economy and the cost of living - so it appears No.10 may have got it.
And anyone in their fifties can downsize now by "commissioning a dream home" and having it built.
I think the point is that the planning system is so byzantine and expensive, and the restrictions placed by government so ridiculous, that it discourages individuals.
I don't think there can be any serious doubt that he is right, although in terms of numbers wanting to commission new-build houses I'm not sure it's a big deal. The big deal would be the effect on professional developers of relaxing the absurd requirements, most notably the 'affordable housing' percentage requirement, limits on car-parking spaces, rules on density which make it hard to build houses for which there's market demand, etc.
I thought the most interesting point he made was the one about bungalows. With an ageing population, governments need to think about that.
Until they realised what a mess these 'ideas' would be if put in to practice.
One of them is already working out very well in practice.
There was a discussion on the DP on the success of the East Coast train service - the argument being that competition has forced it to be lean & nimble....
Until they realised what a mess these 'ideas' would be if put in to practice.
One of them is already working out very well in practice.
There was a discussion on the DP on the success of the East Coast train service - the argument being that competition has forced it to be lean & nimble....
When people mention the fact that the semi-nationalised East Coast is doing rather well when compared to many of its compatriots, they also somehow forget to mention that there is much more competition on the line from two Open Access operators, First Hull Trains and Grand Central.
It would be rather embarrassing for some on here if some of the improvement on the ECML turned out to be because of competition, not nationalisation....
The RCN are trying to blame the government totally for Stafford
They do realise which party was in power when 1,200 people died, yes?
1200 people didn't die.
Nor are there 20000 "excess" deaths in the NHS.
No. It could possibly be more than 1,200 deaths excess at Stafford.
We don't know, and the statistical methods are incapable of calculating the true number. But you seem to think it was only one excess death, something that is ridiculous given your evidence. A sample size of 40-50, ffs.
But what you are totally incapable of acknowledging is what you so lightly call 'shoddy treatment' was something much, much worse.
And it was your beloved doctors and nurses who treated patients with such an utter lack of care.
What went on there was hideous. And what you can't face is the fact it happened under Labour. There is no contrition on your part, no sorrow, just a willingness to sweep it all under the carpet.
People like me are fine: I'm high skilled and pretty well paid. It's low income workers I'm concerned about. You know, the ones the Labour Party used to care about.
Tue: Public Sector Finances - March 2013 Wed: GDP: Preliminary Estimate - GDP Continuous Improvement: progress update
The most important is the Public Sector Finances Bulletin which will show whether 'underlying' borrowing has been reduced below last year's figure. Here are the latest OBR forecasts (March EFO) with the key figures highlighted.
Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is estimated to have fallen by about a quarter from its post-war peak of £158.9 billion (11.2 per cent of GDP) in 2009-10 to £121.0 billion (7.9 per cent of GDP) in 2011-12. We forecast that it will come in at £86.5 billion (5.6 per cent of GDP) this year, but this figure is flattered by Government policy decisions that have a temporary impact on the deficit.
Excluding the decisions to transfer the Royal Mail’s historic pension assets to the public sector, and the surpluses in the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to the Exchequer, the underlying PSNB is expected to be little changed this year or next from the figure recorded in 2011-12. Specifically, we forecast an underlying deficit of £120.9 billion (7.8 per cent of GDP) in 2012-13, and £119.8 billion (7.5 per cent of GDP) in 2013-14.
On GDP for Q1 2013, most forecasters are expecting it to fall in the range of -0.2% - +0.2%, with the median probably a rise of 0.1%. This is the figure which will get the most media coverage though, particularly if it comes in negative and a "triple dip recession" is triggered.
This is what makes the "GDP Continuous Improvement progress update" so intriguing. The last revisions to GDP reduced the size of the "double dip" trigger to -0.1% in a single quarter. If this is revised again the "double dip" disappears altogether.
Now imagine the confusion which would be caused to the Ed Conways of this world if the Q1 GDP figure is negative but the "double dip" eliminated. Try writing the headlines now!
"To be clear: this is not about England saying that Scotland couldn’t stay in the pound. If we choose to leave the UK, it would be us leaving the UK pound. There is no easy or certain way to get back in. After having been found-out on NATO and EU membership, the SNP should stop pretending that Scotland will automatically inherit things."
Could be, on the other hand good to see he has picked up on the possible revising out of the double dip. The construction figures posted the other week showed an upwards revision of Q1 2012 construction which may be enough to take us up to 0% growth. Difficult to be that excited about it though.
Also there was a report in the Telegraph that 'senior Conservatives' are confident this weeks GDP figures will show growth, so maybe this will be the week that we find there is no triple dip and there never was any double dip.
Comments
Yes, you have the better weather and that's a help but you have to live and even if the langusge isn't different, the culture is. I love southern California and would gladly go there on holiday any time but I don't think I could live there. One day, Mrs Stodge and I will decamp for New Zealand (her native country) and I'm under no illusions that it will be difficult for me.
Even though I live in East Ham which is as cosmopolitan as it gets, I suspect I would find New Zealand more different and less British than is generally imagined over here. Those who, for example, go to Australia and assume it's like Britain but with more sunshine often find it a real shock to the system.
Yes. BenM, apparently.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10009141/A-sitter-for-Miliband-but-he-still-cant-score.html
This is from a predictably hostile commentator, but Labour's recent efforts have been poor, given the rich resources they've been given to work with.
Lib Dem councillor is held over mystery bomb campaign in market town that he blamed on 'Ali-G-style yobs'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2312625/Lib-Dem-councillor-held-mystery-bomb-campaign-market-town-blamed-Ali-G-style-yobs.html#ixzz2RBN0GqtH
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I suppose it depends where these voters came from in the first place. The budget last spring resulted in a fairly chunky drop in Tory support so relative to 2010 the situation is roughly one where Labour are up >5% due to left-wing Lib Dems and the Tories are down ~5% due tot he Omnishambles refugees.
If Labour were to pick up all the voters that the Conservatives and Lib Dems have lost then they would be in landslide territory, and so the relative success of UKIP in picking up some of these voters would rescue the Tories to the extent that PM Miliband would have either a modest majority, or be forced into Coalition with the Lib Dems, rather than a landslide majority of more than 100.
Perhaps, in time, Gordon Brown will reflect with some satisfaction that he managed to prevent Cameron from winning an outright Tory majority, but I suspect that he still resents being voted out of No. 10. Similarly, the likelihood that Tories would thank UKIP from rescuing them from a Labour landslide, using the reasoning you present, is I suggest slim-to-none (for a few decades at least).
Right, that's feedback on the leaflet done.
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/326263898602885120/photo/1
UKIP @UKIP
UKIP leader @Nigel_Farage says Surrey is a key battleground in the upcoming elections. http://www.thisissurreytoday.co.uk/Ukip-leader-Nigel-Farage-targets-Surrey-voters/story-18731889-detail/story.html#ixzz2RBOg7bHn …
"Court hears Chris Huhne 'vigorously' attempted to have case against him dismissed at 'great cost' to public purse."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVnWLRVJkwM
*chortle*
'BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following'
Was New Labour's 2003 figure of 13,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe a lie or just incompetence?
Given that poor treatment and the various stories, do you really think that there would have been no excess deaths?
And whose fault was the awful treatment? And if it is the 'system', as claimed by Francis, whose responsibility was that system?
I would guess that Farage's other hope is in Weybridge where the incumbent (but deselected Tory) Councillor is now re-standing as UKIP. My hunch is he will be third.
In which case I don't, you bigots.
Perhaps incompetent Surrey tories should take a turing test? LOL
Chuckle!
One never tires of seeing Hutchings getting her comeuppance.
'According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, social security benefits (not including net public sector pensions) will cost £180 billion this year, rising to £198 billion by 2017-18. Add on tax credits and the bill shoots up to £232 billion. This is by far government’s biggest commitment, dwarfing the £137 billion it currently spends on health.
The trouble is, millions, billions, trillions are lost in the fog of political rhetoric. Thus Labour invites us to believe that a fresh bankers’ bonus levy and the reintroduction of the 50p top rate of tax will foot the bill for a swift return to Gordon Brown’s Magic Kingdom. This is nonsense.
The bankers’ levy raised about £2 billion.
There is reasonable doubt that the 50p rate delivered anything at all, but even on Labour’s own estimates it would not have produced much more than £3 billion. Between them, they add up to little more than a welfare rounding error'.
http://skwalker1964.wordpress.com/2013/02/26/the-real-mid-staffs-story-one-excess-death-if-that/
No one denies shoddy treatment.
But the Tory faction, as ever living in their own little universe, have run off on the "bad nurses" meme, whereas the facts and the Francis report zero in on lack of staffing (implying more money needed - common sense really).
It didn't end happily:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/3360765.stm
"Criminologists have observed that the victims of confidence tricksters are often willing—indeed, eager—to believe the story to which they fall victim, and the more absurd, fantastic or fabulous the story, the more willing they are to believe it. The report is an example of a confidence trick that has been willingly absorbed by the Government and members of the Committee. It contains all the characteristics necessary for the sort of fairy tale in which one wants to believe: it has a faraway country, mysterious powers that we attribute to ourselves, and pots of gold—green gold—at the end of the rainbow.
The first delusion affirmed by the report is the delusion of power. It is a strange hangover from liberal imperialism that the British intellectual classes believe that they can still dominate the world—that the world is anxious to hear from them, and will jump to attention at their every word and follow their every command. Take the opening words of the report:
“China is central to global efforts to tackle climate change”—
true, but it continues, and I ask Members to savour these words—
“and should be at the heart of HMG’s climate change mitigation strategy.”
What imperialist arrogance and what delusions of grandeur that the United Kingdom, a nation of 65 million people off the coast of Europe, could somehow direct, guide or in any substantive way influence the policies of the largest nation in the world, with 1.3 billion people, on the other side of the globe.
How are we to achieve that remarkable feat? The summary refers to
“our leadership role in China”.
Members should also savour those words. I read about the change of leadership in China last year, but I did not realise that that involved the replacement of Xi Jin Ping by “Greg Bar Ker” and “Ed Da Vey”—they apparently now have a leadership role in China to which the Chinese are now anxious to respond.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm130418/halltext/130418h0001.htm#13041821000001
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100213192/lilley-sticks-it-to-trougher-yeo/
Coral were offering 50/1, now down to 33/1 (29/1 on betfair).
Working in Monkey's favour:
Well known
Former councillor & knows how to run a campaign.
Appeals to the anti-politics mood - fishing in the same pond as UKIP
The threshold for 2nd could feasibly be as low as 2500-3000 votes, depending on turnout.
UKIP's ground game untested in SS.
Ukip don't appear to be throwing everything at SS.
Large BNP vote in 2010 - BNP standing again (at the expense of potential UKIP votes)
No other credible independents standing.
Quite a large "Independent" vote historically in SS.
Against:
Stopped blogging in 2009. Yesterdays hero.
He's a bit of a tw@t
Sworn enemy of the Sheilds Gazette - Struggling to get local media coverage.
limited resources
It's probably money thrown down the drain, but at 33/1 IMO the monkey's worth a punt.
Are we sure the magnificently amusing Delingpole didn't climb up Cammie's wisteria filled chimney and remove it? ;^)
The treatment was worse than 'shoddy' - read the blooming reports. And you are very much cherry-picking the conclusions of the Francis report by mentioning just the staffing angle. It was a systematic failure from top to bottom.
The truth is that many staff - nurses and doctors - treated patients with staggering levels of complacency and lack of compassion. And that is down to a failure of every single one of those members of staff.
Shame on every single member of staff who mistreated a patient. They should not be in the medical profession.
And it happened under *your* party. Labour. No wonder you're trying to sweep it under the carpet.
And yet earlier in this thread you laugh at someone who had the perfectly understandable (if incorrect) concern about whether their children got autism due to MMR, yet gloss over the appalling situation at Stafford and, I have no doubt, the many excess deaths that occurred there.
Yes, I'm angry when little ***ts like you try to gloss over what happened at Stafford. Because some members of my family had to be treated there, and got some staggeringly poor treatment by nurses. But that'd just be a Tory anecdote, right?
Yet thousands are still employed by the state on unaffordable defined benefit pensions. The true cost of which is fired into the future.
The elite feathering their own nest at the expense of us.
Should have been stopped May 2010 for all new hires.
I'm looking forward to the tales of his epic struggles with memory loss, PR photoshoots, pasties and horses. He truly is a 'giant' of our times.
http://drphilhammond.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Private-Eye-mid-staffs-final.pdf
But our former chancellor has one fatal flaw. He’s our former chancellor."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100213207/labour-cannot-go-into-the-next-election-with-the-same-chancellor-that-lost-the-last-one/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Could this make it an even more pivotal week for the Chancellor?
Even in 50 years we'll be paying out for work that has already been done in the past.
It is masking the true cost of public sector employment.
http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/video-miliband-visits-south-shields-to-give-support-to-labour-candidate-1-5602452
What proportion of his property empire would he have to sell off to pay that?
DC schemes are only "unaffordable" today if you want to assure the fat cat pensions that are currently doled out.
Private sector companies with DC schemes pay £0 for the ongoing pensions of ex employees - that should be the target.
http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/local-news/ousted-councillor-khan-seeks-comeback-as-mp-1-5588831
I particularly liked this bit:
If he is voted in, Mr Khan, wants car parking charges to be scrapped in South Shields town centre – as they are in Jarrow and Hebburn.
It suggests Mr Khan has a less than encyclopedic knowledge of the powers of backbench MPs.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chris-huhnes-wealth-has-been-hugely-overrated-8537549.html
And Ms Trimmingham has been enriching lawyers too:
Carina Trimingham, 44, faces a legal bill of up to £1 million after claiming that repeated references to her appearance and sexuality in 65 articles published since her adulterous affair with the former Energy Secretary was disclosed were “highly unpleasant and hurtful”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/9288119/Chris-Huhnes-secret-mistress-Carina-Trimingham-must-take-blame-for-deviant-image.html
Employee puts in around 5%, Employer around 10% into a privately managed pot - you gets what you gets at the end like the rest of us - top up at will if you like.
If that means it is more expensive to hire a diversity co-ordinator then well - welcome to the real world.
By 2100 the ongoing cost for previous employees would be zero.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-east-wales-22249420#?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Evil Toreee!....Lib Dem.....
Let's hope Pirelli treat Horner's entreaties like Vettel, and ignore them.
Labour's 3 latest policies = Good news 4 lefties. 1 #State-owned Invest Bank 2 #State-run East Coast Rail 3. #State-run Elderly Care Service
They seem like sensible policies to me (though I'm not sure the description of a National Care Service is entirely accurate).
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/04/alex-morton-of-policy_exchange-housing-talking-about-our-generations.html
Let's hope Tory voters in these places do what's best for the common good.
YouGov @YouGov 8m
Voters overwhelmingly defend tearful Osborne from media snipes http://y-g.co/12ALvUM
http://www.southshieldslabour.org.uk/
Voters defend tearful Osborne.
Hilarious...
Somebody's tracky bottoms are twitching at the PC today....
Seem the one nation is East Germany.
That might be a good way to deal with the nimbys, though. Give them a catalogue of 20 houses, let the local busybodies cross out the half that they think are most "out of character with the area" or whatever and let the customer pick one from the 10 that are left.
Imagine if people in their fifties could use equity to commission their own dream home and downsize to that.
Answer - they aren't. You want to maintain the current ponzi scheme -where costs are kicked into the future away from the point of employment to general taxation - fair enough - but don't try and claim it is cheaper in the long run.
Anyone posted a suggestion for the 5th pledge yet?
You are completely driven by dogma and refuse to be swayed by the evidence. In this sense you are making David Cameron look good. He proposed DC pensions for public servants but quickly changed his mind when he realised what a bad idea that would be.
'Labour's 3 latest policies = Good news 4 lefties. 1 #State-owned Invest Bank 2 #State-run East Coast Rail 3. #State-run Elderly Care Service'
To be fair to Ed he did tell us he was a socialist,at least the Unions will be happy.
I do not know whether the Governments ideas will work, but at least they are trying something. To have such a deluded view of their profession that the RCN and their membership has is laughable. I think they are caught up in the public's affection for nurses, that they cannot see what is in plain sight.
My wife is a nurse so I do have some knowledge, but obviously just PB tory anecdotes.
The situation is no different to that faced by private sector firms over the last 20 years - and the vast majority have switched as it reduces their long term liabilities.
True cost of employment would lead to reduced public sector hires and more outsourcing - again reducing liabilities to ultimately zero.
The possibility of a rapprochement between the party’s hierarchy and Mr Galloway was criticised by some Labour MPs. One MP said: “It is political suicide to have anything to do with George Galloway.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10008911/Ed-Miliband-admits-to-meeting-George-Galloway-prompting-backlash-from-his-own-MPs.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2312625/Lib-Dem-councillor-held-mystery-bomb-campaign-market-town-blamed-Ali-G-style-yobs.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
What ever happened the sandal wearing,yogurt eating lib dems ;-)
I think it is very likely that your proposals for DC schemes at 5% / 10% would be more expensive (as a proportion of GDP) than the current plans in 2061-62. (For this to be the case public sector pay bill would have to be > 9% of GDP then - something I dont have figures on but which certainly seems very plausible.)
Grayling?
In fairness the locals PPB was all about the economy and the cost of living - so it appears No.10 may have got it.
I don't think there can be any serious doubt that he is right, although in terms of numbers wanting to commission new-build houses I'm not sure it's a big deal. The big deal would be the effect on professional developers of relaxing the absurd requirements, most notably the 'affordable housing' percentage requirement, limits on car-parking spaces, rules on density which make it hard to build houses for which there's market demand, etc.
I thought the most interesting point he made was the one about bungalows. With an ageing population, governments need to think about that.
It would be rather embarrassing for some on here if some of the improvement on the ECML turned out to be because of competition, not nationalisation....
Nor are there 20000 "excess" deaths in the NHS.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22218640
EU Commission gives the green light for another seven million to get the same in a few years time:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22245931
Will this be Osborne's worst week yet?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/will-be-osbornes-worst-week-yet
We don't know, and the statistical methods are incapable of calculating the true number. But you seem to think it was only one excess death, something that is ridiculous given your evidence. A sample size of 40-50, ffs.
But what you are totally incapable of acknowledging is what you so lightly call 'shoddy treatment' was something much, much worse.
And it was your beloved doctors and nurses who treated patients with such an utter lack of care.
What went on there was hideous. And what you can't face is the fact it happened under Labour. There is no contrition on your part, no sorrow, just a willingness to sweep it all under the carpet.
And let it happen again.
Prosecutors are also seeking more than £48,000 from Huhne's ex-wife, Vicky Pryce, who was jailed alongside him after accepting his speeding points.
On Monday, the costs hearing at Southwark Crown Court was told Huhne's legal team had offered to pay £25,000 towards the case.
Meanwhile, the BBC has learned that Pryce is to be released on an electronic tag on 12 May, having served two months in prison.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22250665
http://www.southshieldslabour.org.uk/fifthpledge
Don't forget to include your : Address (Street, City, State, Postal code)
Inebriated? Indifferent?
However, I assume this is some kind of test for us.
Yes, I did spot that the nurse of the headline had morphed into a doctorette in the text.
Tue: Public Sector Finances - March 2013
Wed: GDP: Preliminary Estimate - GDP Continuous Improvement: progress update
The most important is the Public Sector Finances Bulletin which will show whether 'underlying' borrowing has been reduced below last year's figure. Here are the latest OBR forecasts (March EFO) with the key figures highlighted.
Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is estimated to have fallen by about a quarter from its post-war peak of £158.9 billion (11.2 per cent of GDP) in 2009-10 to £121.0 billion (7.9 per cent of GDP) in 2011-12. We forecast that it will come in at £86.5 billion (5.6 per cent of GDP) this year, but this figure is flattered by Government policy decisions that have a temporary impact on the deficit.
Excluding the decisions to transfer the Royal Mail’s historic pension assets to the public sector, and the surpluses in the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to the Exchequer, the underlying PSNB is expected to be little changed this year or next from the figure recorded in 2011-12. Specifically, we forecast an underlying deficit of £120.9 billion (7.8 per cent of GDP) in 2012-13, and £119.8 billion (7.5 per cent of GDP) in 2013-14.
On GDP for Q1 2013, most forecasters are expecting it to fall in the range of -0.2% - +0.2%, with the median probably a rise of 0.1%. This is the figure which will get the most media coverage though, particularly if it comes in negative and a "triple dip recession" is triggered.
This is what makes the "GDP Continuous Improvement progress update" so intriguing. The last revisions to GDP reduced the size of the "double dip" trigger to -0.1% in a single quarter. If this is revised again the "double dip" disappears altogether.
Now imagine the confusion which would be caused to the Ed Conways of this world if the Q1 GDP figure is negative but the "double dip" eliminated. Try writing the headlines now!
http://bettertogether.net/blog/entry/leave-the-uk-leave-the-uk-pound
Could be, on the other hand good to see he has picked up on the possible revising out of the double dip. The construction figures posted the other week showed an upwards revision of Q1 2012 construction which may be enough to take us up to 0% growth. Difficult to be that excited about it though.
Also there was a report in the Telegraph that 'senior Conservatives' are confident this weeks GDP figures will show growth, so maybe this will be the week that we find there is no triple dip and there never was any double dip.
" 'ad 'er on the back of a trolley".