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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never had to try hard there in the past
A key part of the strategy was a ruthless approach to targeting. So seats that were beyond the party’s reach were simply ignored and seats in Labour’s heartlands which were certainties were also put into that category.
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1. I won't be like that parachuted in Miliband. I may even move from Jarrow.
2. I'll do something the Labour Council should do.
3. I'll do something the Labour Council has failed to do.
4. I'll follow Balls economics but don't worry about how we pay for it.
5. Er...that's it.....
The Respect MP should be considered untouchable for any Labour leader, even for something as important as the boundary change vote.
It's evident too that this news has been leaked out today as part of an anti-Miliband briefing operation that has been ramping up lately. And while it would be easy to rage against those (quite possibility within the Labour party) who are pushing this stuff, if you invite George Galloway into the opposition leader's office – even if it's just out of courtesy, and even if it's for a good reason – you're creating a hostage to fortune that, once it's revealed, you can do very little about.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/21/ed-miliband-unwise-met-george-galloway
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22221841
But at the end of a long piece of facts and figures, below is what the director of Gallup UK said
"I think if you're looking at who's making concrete plans, say who's spoken for instance to a recruitment consultancy or who has a firm job offer job, I think yes the sample sizes there are a bit small to say specifically who are the numbers who are coming," Peter Flade, director of Gallup UK, told BBC Newsnight.
Makes one want to cry but I'll laugh instead. LOL
Looks like lobby fodder to me.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10009141/A-sitter-for-Miliband-but-he-still-cant-score.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/10009124/We-cant-afford-to-ignore-our-dynamic-friends-in-the-East.html
He has rather a good point: Britain could do much more than it does to exploit its historical ties with dynamic economies scattered around the world. And of course, this kind of argument will do his profile no harm with the Europhobes and hardline Eurosceptics who look wistfully to him.
Appropriate that the photo is of a prize heifer from the local Fat Stock show.
And the PM visited Qatar in January, the Prince of Wales in March....yet Boris mentions neither....
Loved this comment too:
"Their airport has just run out of room, and they aren’t faffing around with some study into the options – they are building a new one, right on the sea."
My own feeling is that the probability of a new record this year is around 1-in-3 or 1-in-4, which equates to 2-1, or 3-1 (if I understand how to write odds). 11/8 is far too short, in effect you are betting that the sea ice decline will accelerate considerably (which is possible, but there's no particular reason to expect it to happen this year).
"Ed Miliband has correctly identified this [withdrawal/not voting] as a central problem facing the country. This is why he has made it a priority to initiate a major cultural change in the Labour Party. Ed is saying that the party must be the change it wants to see in the country."
As will the council elections...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22221841
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22243084
BBC headlines the results as "few planning to migrate to the UK". Actually if you apply the percentages to the overall population, subject to the usual caveats about sample sizes, you get the following:
1.7 million (990,000 Romanians and 670,000 Bulgarians) say spontaneously they are planning to come to the UK. When prompted, this rises to 2.8 million (1.8m and 1.0m respectively).
Concrete plans have already been made by at least 670,000. (It's hard to tell the total as it doesn't add up the various types of plans - this is just the number for the largest type.)
I would call that more than a "few", but I'm not a liberal-left BBC editor.
In a boost to David Cameron, 70% of Romanians and 40% of Bulgarians say their decision would be affected by limits to benefits.
"The chink in Lab's armour in South Shields"
That'll be a portion of crispy Peking duck, special egg fried rice and a king prawn omlette. Do Labour deliver ??
Silly question .....
Under proposals to be set out by the Labour leader, councils would lose their historic role in providing social care for the local population. Instead, responsibility for "cradle to grave" health and social care would pass to the NHS in an attempt to make billions of pounds in efficiency savings.
The move will lead to accusations that Labour is proposing yet another complicated re-organisation of Britain's healthcare system at a time when budgets are already under huge pressure.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/put-nhs-in-charge-of-care-homes-to-save-billions-says-ed-miliband-8582080.html
One might have thought a local councillor would know what was on the minds of voters....
Don't forget to check the post-race analysis of Bahrain at:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html
Incidentally, I can't see South Shields as anything but a boring Labour victory.
Wrong thread?
ahem...well...if I were EdM I wouldn't have done a Maria on South Shields, I would have put in a heavyweight of one type or another to reinforce the "strength in depth" narrative. Although there are few ways to bring on new talent (if indeed EdM thinks she is talented), it interferes with the Lab re-elect-us-'cos-we're-not-air-headed-profligate-aparatchiks plan.
South Shields could be like the Carthignians under Hannibal for Labour.
They had a few easy victories in the past and Never really had their mettle tested until Zama.
But in this instance Labour won't be defeated in South Shields.
You'll love it
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/04/16/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-8/
You should more concerned by the fact the 4 pledges were probably written by some Labour regional official or campaign manager rather than by her individually.
Conduct a poll in any major western country and you are going to get hundreds of millions "intending to come to the UK" for some reason or other. A similar poll in France would be illuminating. For you.
Get a grip.
IF the 5th pledge comes from Arnie Graf's work - and it's generation is handled in an open and transparent manner, then it might be more than a cheap stunt.......let's "watch this space"..
I fully expect a TV series with suitable travel commentary from SeanT.
http://www.by-elections.co.uk/feltham11/feltham11lab01b.jpg
5. Apple pie is great and I shall fight for the right for eveyone to enjoy it.
http://southshieldslabourparty.com/mp.html
Complacent, much?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/21/stedham-ward-councillor-race-comments
He'll be working for Phil Woolas soon.
"Perhaps the most radical of Graf's proposals was his call for open primaries, meaning that Labour's candidate would be selected by the area's population as a whole, rather than just its members"
Chances of this happening less than 0%
The union Dromeys aren't funding the party for fun.
"Make the white folks angry"
versus
""Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian," he said. "It depends what type of Asian. If they're Chinese, they'll rise to the top. If they're Indian, they'll rise to the top. If they're Pakistani, they won't.""
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/21/stedham-ward-councillor-race-comments
We all know if Phil Woolas was a Tory, you buggers wouldn't shut up about it.
The Francis report mentions staffing some 300+ times.
The idea of 'uncaring' nurses is the usual appalling Tory and Tory media fiction.
My guess, for what it is worth, is that Labour will somewhat under perform their polling lead (even as supposedly adjusted for the areas voting) and that the Lib Dems will do quite a bit better than their national polling in areas they already have strength. I still think the Lib Dems will be net losers though.
We all know if Aidan Burley was a Tory, you buggers wouldn't shut up about it.
*innocent face*
LOL
Goto 10
Why that's even funnier than the old turing test joke of a halfwit.
*waits for chicken post removal Klaxon*
Also as someone who is of Pakistani descent, you'll forgive me if I get upset at Phil Woolas and other politicians who seek to exploit the colour of my skin to make white folks angry.
@DavidL
"Edit, and here we are: http://www.safercampus.org/blog/2009/03/rape-not-necessarily-a-crime-in-londonuntil-last-year/
Evidence of a substantial change in police practice, by coincidence, 4 years ago, as to how rapes are to be classified. Might explain the "spike".
Look at the date on the original article
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2004/apr/04/ukcrime.ameliahill
2004.
It started to go up exponentially from around 2000, same as the grooming.
Flying in the face of the political decision to place the trust in administration and to downgrade the hospital itself?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22233260
As another PB Burley might say,
Golly!
You wouldn't even vote for him in an election. Take that Burley!
LOL
And you'll forgive me if I don't believe for a second that parroting one idiot labour MPs name in a kneejerk response and inept attempt to deflect away from this other idiot councillor counts as 'anger'.
Since you need everything explained to you that was the reason for mentioning Burley. To ironically highlight the hypocritical responses of those who think Woolas is an answer to everything. Good thing you didn't fall into that trap isn't it?
*chuckles*
https://mobile.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/326253463958872064/photo/1
Labour's official South Shields website yet to carch up with DMiliband's resignaion. goo.gl/GRnC0 pic.twitter.com/whF8OJ8IKy
Wonder where he read that?
I didn't tip Blair, other news organisations did, I merely asked the question, is he the man to save the union?
Again, proof that you're not very bright.
First, it was a pleasure to meet PB contributors, old and new, as well as OGH, at Dirty Dick's last Friday. I particularly enjoyed conversing with Richard Nabavi and Hersham John but it was also good to meet TSE, Neil and of course Ave It as well as everyone else who was present.
On-topic, it's interesting to read about Labour and targetting. The LDs have done targetting for decades and Eastleigh was a fine example of what a well-run local machine can manage even when the overall political climate is hostile.
I've lived in both safe Conservative and Labour seats. I think it's fair to say that both parties have upped their local game from say twenty-five years ago. Here in East Ham (Labour vote 70%) we've had a leaflet not long ago from out three Ward Councillors and of course London local elections are in 2014. In Conservative areas, it tended to be which Branch had the activists and the resources so some areas would see the occasional leaflet and others wouldn't.
I think another factor is the frequency of elections - in areas with third-up Councils, you were fighting an election every year so the parties were on an almost permanent war footing. In London, we have the locals only every four years with the Mayoral and GLA elections fought on an extra-Borough basis (GLA seats cover two Boroughs at least and sometimes more).
I suspect it's as hard to motivate the workers when you're 20,000 votes ahead as when you're 20,000 behind.
It certainly sounds 'bright' doesn't it?
Now they do they aren't happy.
I'm dealing with a smaller similar problem locally. I'm getting mightly fed-up with people who discuss things and then try and implement their half baked incomplete solutions only to find the glaringly obvious flaw in their solution stops it in their tracks.
It will be marvellous when the line is fully restored to Epping - the plan is to build a platform about 500 yards from the current Epping Underground station. There's a huge potential market for a restored commuter service from Ongar but the big problem is parking. All the potential sites went for residential development when the line was originally closed and there is nowhere left.
The book shop at Ongar was a mine of fascinating reading on old London transport links - I'd forgotten for example about the link from Newbury Park to Ilford which was closed in 1971 as well as Loughton Sidings but I'll leave Sunil to enlighten us on those.
I guess you don't understand how 'plausible' that sounds either, do you?
I've seen no evidence of that at all. Link please.
Great to meet you, next time we'll have to chat longer.
"Whether that is enough, remains to be seen, as ever, this needs to be seen through the eyes of the voters of Scotland."
I recently complained that rosettes had become smaller in recent times.
So this is a pleasant change.