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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never h

SystemSystem Posts: 12,185
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never had to try hard there in the past

A key part of the strategy was a ruthless approach to targeting. So seats that were beyond the party’s reach were simply ignored and seats in Labour’s heartlands which were certainties were also put into that category.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    First!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    Emma Double-Yellow Line's pledges:

    1. I won't be like that parachuted in Miliband. I may even move from Jarrow.
    2. I'll do something the Labour Council should do.
    3. I'll do something the Labour Council has failed to do.
    4. I'll follow Balls economics but don't worry about how we pay for it.
    5. Er...that's it.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "Why Ed Miliband was unwise to have met George Galloway
    The Respect MP should be considered untouchable for any Labour leader, even for something as important as the boundary change vote.


    It's evident too that this news has been leaked out today as part of an anti-Miliband briefing operation that has been ramping up lately. And while it would be easy to rage against those (quite possibility within the Labour party) who are pushing this stuff, if you invite George Galloway into the opposition leader's office – even if it's just out of courtesy, and even if it's for a good reason – you're creating a hostage to fortune that, once it's revealed, you can do very little about.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/21/ed-miliband-unwise-met-george-galloway
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Morning: The BBC on Newsnight will be trying to prove that Britain has little to worry about regarding Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants seeking access next year:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22221841

    But at the end of a long piece of facts and figures, below is what the director of Gallup UK said

    "I think if you're looking at who's making concrete plans, say who's spoken for instance to a recruitment consultancy or who has a firm job offer job, I think yes the sample sizes there are a bit small to say specifically who are the numbers who are coming," Peter Flade, director of Gallup UK, told BBC Newsnight.

    Makes one want to cry but I'll laugh instead. LOL
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Emma Double-Yellow Line's pledges:

    1. I won't be like that parachuted in Miliband. I may even move from Jarrow.
    2. I'll do something the Labour Council should do.
    3. I'll do something the Labour Council has failed to do.
    4. I'll follow Balls economics but don't worry about how we pay for it.
    5. Er...that's it.....

    Vacuous is the right word.

    Looks like lobby fodder to me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "This is Labour’s fault line, the crack into which its credibility vanishes, as pointed out by eminent psephologist John Curtice in a paper for the Left-leaning Institute for Public Policy Research. In his view, the crunch question in the general election of 2015 will be: “Which party looks best able to run the economy in the next five years?” According to 11 ComRes polls between August 2011 and February 2013, it’s not Labour."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10009141/A-sitter-for-Miliband-but-he-still-cant-score.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Off topic, Boris Johnson has written a piece in the Telegraph with a surprising amount of meat in it:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/10009124/We-cant-afford-to-ignore-our-dynamic-friends-in-the-East.html

    He has rather a good point: Britain could do much more than it does to exploit its historical ties with dynamic economies scattered around the world. And of course, this kind of argument will do his profile no harm with the Europhobes and hardline Eurosceptics who look wistfully to him.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    "I'LL BE A CHAMPION FOR OUR TOWN"

    Appropriate that the photo is of a prize heifer from the local Fat Stock show.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    antifrank said:

    Off topic, Boris Johnson has written a piece in the Telegraph with a surprising amount of meat in it.

    "Tony Blair never visited Qatar once, even though it was a British protectorate until 1971. Well, we are making up for that now. I went to the British Embassy party for the Queen’s birthday on Saturday night..."

    And the PM visited Qatar in January, the Prince of Wales in March....yet Boris mentions neither....

    Loved this comment too:

    "Their airport has just run out of room, and they aren’t faffing around with some study into the options – they are building a new one, right on the sea."
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If Pulpstar is about, I found this post from last autumn, which has some pretty good methodology for forecasting the decline of Arctic Sea Ice, and if he took 11/8 on Arctic Sea Ice extent setting a new record in 2013 then I'm afraid he's most likely onto a loser.

    My own feeling is that the probability of a new record this year is around 1-in-3 or 1-in-4, which equates to 2-1, or 3-1 (if I understand how to write odds). 11/8 is far too short, in effect you are betting that the sea ice decline will accelerate considerably (which is possible, but there's no particular reason to expect it to happen this year).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    "This is Labour’s fault line, the crack into which its credibility vanishes, as pointed out by eminent psephologist John Curtice in a paper for the Left-leaning Institute for Public Policy Research. In his view, the crunch question in the general election of 2015 will be: “Which party looks best able to run the economy in the next five years?” According to 11 ComRes polls between August 2011 and February 2013, it’s not Labour."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10009141/A-sitter-for-Miliband-but-he-still-cant-score.html

    Again this shows that Labour needed for the last three years to have been making the case for growth and against austerity. Because they have not, there is no political gain in Osborne losing his intellectual crutch. The price of keeping the Blairites onside might be losing the 2015 election, because, as Mrs Thatcher showed in 1979, housewife economics sounds plausible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,252

    If Pulpstar is about, I found this post from last autumn, which has some pretty good methodology for forecasting the decline of Arctic Sea Ice, and if he took 11/8 on Arctic Sea Ice extent setting a new record in 2013 then I'm afraid he's most likely onto a loser.

    My own feeling is that the probability of a new record this year is around 1-in-3 or 1-in-4, which equates to 2-1, or 3-1 (if I understand how to write odds). 11/8 is far too short, in effect you are betting that the sea ice decline will accelerate considerably (which is possible, but there's no particular reason to expect it to happen this year).

    Ta, was only a fiver.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:
    IF Ed can pull this off - and the Union barons are unlikely to be obliging - it could be a significant change - if not in time for 2015, 2020:

    "Ed Miliband has correctly identified this [withdrawal/not voting] as a central problem facing the country. This is why he has made it a priority to initiate a major cultural change in the Labour Party. Ed is saying that the party must be the change it wants to see in the country."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,252
    Pledge 5 "I'll vote however Ed Miliband tells me and try and get a junior ministerial position sometime around 2018" ? £10 on UKIP +18%.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @CarlottaVance No doubt Boris Johnson included a sentence about David Cameron and Prince Charles that was deleted by the editor for space considerations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,252
    Oh God "hard-working families". This has come straight from Labour HQ hasn't it !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh God "hard-working families". This has come straight from Labour HQ hasn't it !

    Which makes the implicit criticism of Miliband Sr in the first pledge "interesting"....
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    It's going to be a horrendous result for the Tories.

    As will the council elections...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited April 2013
    BBC polling of Romanian and Bulgarians and their intentions to come to the UK:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22221841
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22243084

    BBC headlines the results as "few planning to migrate to the UK". Actually if you apply the percentages to the overall population, subject to the usual caveats about sample sizes, you get the following:

    1.7 million (990,000 Romanians and 670,000 Bulgarians) say spontaneously they are planning to come to the UK. When prompted, this rises to 2.8 million (1.8m and 1.0m respectively).

    Concrete plans have already been made by at least 670,000. (It's hard to tell the total as it doesn't add up the various types of plans - this is just the number for the largest type.)

    I would call that more than a "few", but I'm not a liberal-left BBC editor.

    In a boost to David Cameron, 70% of Romanians and 40% of Bulgarians say their decision would be affected by limits to benefits.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    I wonder if @AveryLP got his head around all the amazingly good news for Osborne from last week?!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    Off topic, Boris Johnson has written a piece in the Telegraph with a surprising amount of meat in it:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/10009124/We-cant-afford-to-ignore-our-dynamic-friends-in-the-East.html

    He has rather a good point: Britain could do much more than it does to exploit its historical ties with dynamic economies scattered around the world. And of course, this kind of argument will do his profile no harm with the Europhobes and hardline Eurosceptics who look wistfully to him.

    Boris has already u-turned on an EU referendum. He's a bottler like the rest of them.
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    edited April 2013
    BenM said:

    It's going to be a horrendous result for the Tories.

    As will the council elections...

    So will they still win most seats at the locals Ben? That is a good question.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, I'm somewhat concerned that a potential MP can't even get to five pledges without having to enlist the help of others.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Thread Leader

    "The chink in Lab's armour in South Shields"

    That'll be a portion of crispy Peking duck, special egg fried rice and a king prawn omlette. Do Labour deliver ??

    Silly question .....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The NHS would be handed responsibility for providing nursing home care for the elderly under a future Labour government in an attempt to constrain Britain's spiralling healthcare costs, Ed Miliband will announce today.

    Under proposals to be set out by the Labour leader, councils would lose their historic role in providing social care for the local population. Instead, responsibility for "cradle to grave" health and social care would pass to the NHS in an attempt to make billions of pounds in efficiency savings.

    The move will lead to accusations that Labour is proposing yet another complicated re-organisation of Britain's healthcare system at a time when budgets are already under huge pressure.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/put-nhs-in-charge-of-care-homes-to-save-billions-says-ed-miliband-8582080.html
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    antifrank said:

    On topic, I'm somewhat concerned that a potential MP can't even get to five pledges without having to enlist the help of others.

    It would be fascinating to see what suggestions (if any) she gets - and whether any of them would see the light of day.

    One might have thought a local councillor would know what was on the minds of voters....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,859
    Good morning, everyone.

    Don't forget to check the post-race analysis of Bahrain at:
    http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html

    Incidentally, I can't see South Shields as anything but a boring Labour victory.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,013
    The irony is that although the Voice is supposed to be all about, um, the voice whereas Cowell's shows are about celeb and glitz, it's Cowell who can deliver superstardom to just about anyone he picks.

    Wrong thread?

    ahem...well...if I were EdM I wouldn't have done a Maria on South Shields, I would have put in a heavyweight of one type or another to reinforce the "strength in depth" narrative. Although there are few ways to bring on new talent (if indeed EdM thinks she is talented), it interferes with the Lab re-elect-us-'cos-we're-not-air-headed-profligate-aparatchiks plan.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    On topic, I'm somewhat concerned that a potential MP can't even get to five pledges without having to enlist the help of others.

    It would be fascinating to see what suggestions (if any) she gets - and whether any of them would see the light of day.

    One might have thought a local councillor would know what was on the minds of voters....
    Perhaps she could be prevailed upon to reintroduce the lynx into Britain, starting with the municipal parks of South Shields.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,791
    edited April 2013
    I agree with OGH.

    South Shields could be like the Carthignians under Hannibal for Labour.

    They had a few easy victories in the past and Never really had their mettle tested until Zama.

    But in this instance Labour won't be defeated in South Shields.
  • Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Hey Socrates, I'd hate for you to have missed this thread from last week.

    You'll love it

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/04/16/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-8/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    OT, this looks like a promising angle by George Galloway from his twitters:
    A "Get tough" attitude to the EU. Lead the tens of millions in Europe who reject a Europe of Bankers and bloated Eurocrats
    ...
    An end to "Austerity" for the many and prosperity for the few
    I guess it's going to be hard for Ed Miliband to run with anything like this, because his manifesto is likely to end up looking too much like austerity for it to be plausible.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    antifrank said:

    On topic, I'm somewhat concerned that a potential MP can't even get to five pledges without having to enlist the help of others.


    You should more concerned by the fact the 4 pledges were probably written by some Labour regional official or campaign manager rather than by her individually.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Put your childish xenophobia to one side for a moment.

    Conduct a poll in any major western country and you are going to get hundreds of millions "intending to come to the UK" for some reason or other. A similar poll in France would be illuminating. For you.

    Get a grip.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    On topic, I'm somewhat concerned that a potential MP can't even get to five pledges without having to enlist the help of others.

    It would be fascinating to see what suggestions (if any) she gets - and whether any of them would see the light of day.

    One might have thought a local councillor would know what was on the minds of voters....
    Perhaps she could be prevailed upon to reintroduce the lynx into Britain, starting with the municipal parks of South Shields.
    Won't the Lynx eat the Magic Money Trees?

    IF the 5th pledge comes from Arnie Graf's work - and it's generation is handled in an open and transparent manner, then it might be more than a cheap stunt.......let's "watch this space"..
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Hey Socrates, I'd hate for you to have missed this thread from last week.

    You'll love it

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/04/16/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-8/
    Which bit?
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Hey Socrates, I'd hate for you to have missed this thread from last week.

    You'll love it

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/04/16/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-8/
    Which bit?
    All the subtle references to the greatest band in the history of the world.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Admirers of John O's travel adventures, following his unexpected post Dirty Dick's trip to the fleshpots of Bournemouth will be thrilled to hear that yesterday a Sunday lunchtime pint at his local - The Hersham Arms - has resulted in John O enjoying a hearty breakfast in South Shields !!

    I fully expect a TV series with suitable travel commentary from SeanT.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pledge 5 should be a bit more hard hitting and more detailed on policy :



    5. Apple pie is great and I shall fight for the right for eveyone to enjoy it.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Emma Double Yellow Line has taken down her Facebook page and the South Shields Labour Party still has David Miliband for MP:

    http://southshieldslabourparty.com/mp.html

    Complacent, much?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,859
    Pledge5 - to fire Ed Balls into the heart of the sun from some sort of giant artillery gun.
  • BenM said:
    Just you wait.

    He'll be working for Phil Woolas soon.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2013

    tim said:
    IF Ed can pull this off - and the Union barons are unlikely to be obliging - it could be a significant change - if not in time for 2015, 2020:

    "Ed Miliband has correctly identified this [withdrawal/not voting] as a central problem facing the country. This is why he has made it a priority to initiate a major cultural change in the Labour Party. Ed is saying that the party must be the change it wants to see in the country."


    "Perhaps the most radical of Graf's proposals was his call for open primaries, meaning that Labour's candidate would be selected by the area's population as a whole, rather than just its members"

    Chances of this happening less than 0%

    The union Dromeys aren't funding the party for fun.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    BenM said:
    Just you wait.

    He'll be working for Phil Woolas soon.

    Is that Phil " Ed Miliband appointed Front Bench Immigration Spokesman "if we don't get the white folk angry" barred from public office" Woolas? That one?
  • BenM said:
    Just you wait.

    He'll be working for Phil Woolas soon.

    Is that Phil " Ed Miliband appointed Front Bench Immigration Spokesman "if we don't get the white folk angry" barred from public office" Woolas? That one?
    I prefer to think of him as Mr I put tampons on expenses and I was Joanna Lumley's bitch on live TV Woolas.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:

    tim said:
    IF Ed can pull this off - and the Union barons are unlikely to be obliging - it could be a significant change - if not in time for 2015, 2020:

    "Ed Miliband has correctly identified this [withdrawal/not voting] as a central problem facing the country. This is why he has made it a priority to initiate a major cultural change in the Labour Party. Ed is saying that the party must be the change it wants to see in the country."


    "Perhaps the most radical of Graf's proposals was his call for open primaries, meaning that Labour's candidate would be selected by the area's population as a whole, rather than just its members"

    Chances of this happening less than 0%

    The union Dromeys aren't funding the party for fun.
    I agree that the odds are not good - but Ed has demonstrated more than once he has a touch of ruthlessness about him - and he's clearly onto a huge issue.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited April 2013
    PB Tory relativism:

    "Make the white folks angry"

    versus

    ""Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian," he said. "It depends what type of Asian. If they're Chinese, they'll rise to the top. If they're Indian, they'll rise to the top. If they're Pakistani, they won't.""

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/21/stedham-ward-councillor-race-comments
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    sorry but a poll asking people if they are coming is irrelevant. What happened with other countries is a better guide surely, facts not rhetoric.

  • BenM said:

    "Make the white folks angry"

    versus

    ""Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian," he said. "It depends what type of Asian. If they're Chinese, they'll rise to the top. If they're Indian, they'll rise to the top. If they're Pakistani, they won't.""

    I know Labour supporters are in denial over Phil Woolas, but that odious Tory councillor wasn't the Immigration Minister or an MP for a seat that experienced race riots a few years earlier.

    We all know if Phil Woolas was a Tory, you buggers wouldn't shut up about it.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BenM said:

    PB Tory relativism:

    "Make the white folks angry"

    versus

    ""Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian," he said. "It depends what type of Asian. If they're Chinese, they'll rise to the top. If they're Indian, they'll rise to the top. If they're Pakistani, they won't.""

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/21/stedham-ward-councillor-race-comments

    BenM - the only problem is that Labour appointed the source of the former quote to the shadow cabinet while the Tories moved to force the source of the latter out of the party...
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342

    antifrank said:

    On topic, I'm somewhat concerned that a potential MP can't even get to five pledges without having to enlist the help of others.

    It would be fascinating to see what suggestions (if any) she gets - and whether any of them would see the light of day.

    One might have thought a local councillor would know what was on the minds of voters....
    If she has 4 pledges that is 3 more than Johann Lamont managed at Inverness and the recent past, and that 1 policy pledge on income tax is being cancelled due to lack of interest from Wastemonster MP's and Millplod within the last week.

  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    BenM said:

    PB Tory relativism:

    "Make the white folks angry"

    versus

    ""Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian," he said. "It depends what type of Asian. If they're Chinese, they'll rise to the top. If they're Indian, they'll rise to the top. If they're Pakistani, they won't.""

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/21/stedham-ward-councillor-race-comments

    Not sure about 97%, but Chinese and Indian girls and boys tend to do better and have higher IQ's than the local white chappies and chapesses. The Pakistanis and Afro Caribbeans tend to be below the norm. Family bonds and peer pressure from parents playing a role perhaps?

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Well, they're dealing with the Stupid Party after all:
    Nurses' leaders have branded parts of the government's plans to reform the profession as "stupid".

    The Royal College of Nursing said ministers had missed an opportunity to improve patient care after the Stafford Hospital scandal public inquiry.

    The strongest criticism was given to the plan to get trainee nurses to work for a year as healthcare assistants.

    A survey by the union of more than 2,000 senior nurses also raised concerns about unsafe staffing levels.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22209634

    The Francis report mentions staffing some 300+ times.

    The idea of 'uncaring' nurses is the usual appalling Tory and Tory media fiction.
  • tim said:

    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline 38m
    John Cherry, the race-storm Tory councillor who doesn't want 'coloured' pupils on his doorstep, forced to resign http://bit.ly/14IqWtb

    John Cherry? Is this the footballer that TSE mentioned a few days ago?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    sorry but a poll asking people if they are coming is irrelevant. What happened with other countries is a better guide surely, facts not rhetoric.

    Ok. Disowning the UKIP lies then?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    On topic (and why not?) does the same sort of reasoning from Mike not also suggest that Labour will struggle to make the gains that their increased polling might indicate in the County Council elections? A lot of these will also be in seats that would have been in the "no chance" pile and starved of resources.

    My guess, for what it is worth, is that Labour will somewhat under perform their polling lead (even as supposedly adjusted for the areas voting) and that the Lib Dems will do quite a bit better than their national polling in areas they already have strength. I still think the Lib Dems will be net losers though.
  • tim said:

    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline 38m
    John Cherry, the race-storm Tory councillor who doesn't want 'coloured' pupils on his doorstep, forced to resign http://bit.ly/14IqWtb

    John Cherry? Is this the footballer that TSE mentioned a few days ago?
    No, he's an actor, playing a footballer, in a niche film called, "Cocksure Captain" about a footballer who goes round sleeping with his teammates' girlfriends and wives.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    BenM said:

    PB Tory relativism:

    "Make the white folks angry"

    versus

    ""Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian," he said. "It depends what type of Asian. If they're Chinese, they'll rise to the top. If they're Indian, they'll rise to the top. If they're Pakistani, they won't.""

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/21/stedham-ward-councillor-race-comments

    I know PB Tories are in denial over Aidan Burley, but that odious Tory councillor wasn't the Immigration Minister or an MP for a seat who then toasted Hitler.

    We all know if Aidan Burley was a Tory, you buggers wouldn't shut up about it.

    *innocent face*

    LOL

  • Turing Test klaxon.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Hey Socrates, I'd hate for you to have missed this thread from last week.

    You'll love it

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/04/16/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-8/
    Which bit?
    All the subtle references to the greatest band in the history of the world.

    Ha ha. Thankfully I don't know their repertoire as well as you!

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Put your childish xenophobia to one side for a moment.

    Conduct a poll in any major western country and you are going to get hundreds of millions "intending to come to the UK" for some reason or other. A similar poll in France would be illuminating. For you.

    Get a grip.

    Around 10% of France is intending to come to the UK? Evidence please.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Hey Socrates, I'd hate for you to have missed this thread from last week.

    You'll love it

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/04/16/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-8/
    Which bit?
    All the subtle references to the greatest band in the history of the world.

    Ha ha. Thankfully I don't know their repertoire as well as you!

    10 Print: Ha

    Goto 10

    Why that's even funnier than the old turing test joke of a halfwit.

    *waits for chicken post removal Klaxon*

  • Mick_Pork said:

    BenM said:

    PB Tory relativism:

    "Make the white folks angry"

    versus

    ""Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian," he said. "It depends what type of Asian. If they're Chinese, they'll rise to the top. If they're Indian, they'll rise to the top. If they're Pakistani, they won't.""

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/21/stedham-ward-councillor-race-comments

    I know PB Tories are in denial over Aidan Burley, but that odious Tory councillor wasn't the Immigration Minister or an MP for a seat who then toasted Hitler.

    We all know if Aidan Burley was a Tory, you buggers wouldn't shut up about it.

    *innocent face*

    LOL

    I know you're not very bright and as Antifrank says, nearly everything you type is wrong, but I've condemned Aidan Burley many many times, I've said he's one of the few Tory candidates I wouldn't vote for in an election,

    Also as someone who is of Pakistani descent, you'll forgive me if I get upset at Phil Woolas and other politicians who seek to exploit the colour of my skin to make white folks angry.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT

    @DavidL

    "Edit, and here we are: http://www.safercampus.org/blog/2009/03/rape-not-necessarily-a-crime-in-londonuntil-last-year/

    Evidence of a substantial change in police practice, by coincidence, 4 years ago, as to how rapes are to be classified. Might explain the "spike".

    Look at the date on the original article

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2004/apr/04/ukcrime.ameliahill

    2004.

    It started to go up exponentially from around 2000, same as the grooming.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Put your childish xenophobia to one side for a moment.

    Conduct a poll in any major western country and you are going to get hundreds of millions "intending to come to the UK" for some reason or other. A similar poll in France would be illuminating. For you.

    Get a grip.

    Around 10% of France is intending to come to the UK? Evidence please.
    You don't think 10% of France would want to come to the UK?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    The many polls on the subject in different countries that I've seen over the years always show a big proportion saying they'd like to live in another country - 40% in Britain IIRC. The number who actually do is relatively small, probably for both practical (language, job, uncertainty) and emotional (family ties, attachment to home) reasons.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    tim said:

    Daily Mail Online ‏@MailOnline 38m
    John Cherry, the race-storm Tory councillor who doesn't want 'coloured' pupils on his doorstep, forced to resign http://bit.ly/14IqWtb

    John Cherry? Is this the footballer that TSE mentioned a few days ago?
    Hope John Cherry doesn't have to mark Suarez !!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    tim said:
    IF Ed can pull this off - and the Union barons are unlikely to be obliging - it could be a significant change - if not in time for 2015, 2020:

    "Ed Miliband has correctly identified this [withdrawal/not voting] as a central problem facing the country. This is why he has made it a priority to initiate a major cultural change in the Labour Party. Ed is saying that the party must be the change it wants to see in the country."


    "Perhaps the most radical of Graf's proposals was his call for open primaries, meaning that Labour's candidate would be selected by the area's population as a whole, rather than just its members"

    Chances of this happening less than 0%

    The union Dromeys aren't funding the party for fun.
    I agree that the odds are not good - but Ed has demonstrated more than once he has a touch of ruthlessness about him - and he's clearly onto a huge issue.
    Name an instance of ruthlessness that has upset his union paymasters ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,971
    FPT If you average out the polls from last summer, and compare with the latest averages, it looks pretty clear that almost all of the rise in the UKIP vote is coming from Labour - contrary to received wisdom (certainly among many Tories). Compared to summer 2012 the Tories are only down about 1% and the LibDems level or maybe up slightly. If this position holds and UKIP continues to hoover up the "unhappy but still don't really trust Labour" vote, perhaps Ukip will rescue the Tories rather than be the origin of their demise?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Did anyone observe on here the 30,000 who marched in favour of Stafford hospital retaining all clinical services?

    Flying in the face of the political decision to place the trust in administration and to downgrade the hospital itself?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22233260
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    I know you're not very bright and as Antifrank says, nearly everything you type is wrong,

    Did I hilariously tip Tony Blair as a possible leading spokesman for the No to independence campaign? Nope. That would be you.

    many, many times, I've said he's one of the few Tory candidates I wouldn't vote for in an election,


    As another PB Burley might say,

    Golly!

    You wouldn't even vote for him in an election. Take that Burley!

    LOL

    you'll forgive me if I get upset at Phil Woolas and other politicians who seek to exploit the colour of my skin to make white folks angry.

    And you'll forgive me if I don't believe for a second that parroting one idiot labour MPs name in a kneejerk response and inept attempt to deflect away from this other idiot councillor counts as 'anger'.

    Since you need everything explained to you that was the reason for mentioning Burley. To ironically highlight the hypocritical responses of those who think Woolas is an answer to everything. Good thing you didn't fall into that trap isn't it?

    *chuckles*


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    OGH tweets:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/326253463958872064/photo/1
    Labour's official South Shields website yet to carch up with DMiliband's resignaion. goo.gl/GRnC0 pic.twitter.com/whF8OJ8IKy

    Wonder where he read that?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    Did anyone observe on here the 30,000 who marched in favour of Stafford hospital retaining all clinical services?

    Flying in the face of the political decision to place the trust in administration and to downgrade the hospital itself?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22233260

    Stockholm syndrome.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,791
    edited April 2013
    Mick Pork.

    I didn't tip Blair, other news organisations did, I merely asked the question, is he the man to save the union?

    Again, proof that you're not very bright.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    The many polls on the subject in different countries that I've seen over the years always show a big proportion saying they'd like to live in another country - 40% in Britain IIRC. The number who actually do is relatively small, probably for both practical (language, job, uncertainty) and emotional (family ties, attachment to home) reasons.

    There's a big difference between "want" and "intend". There's an even bigger difference between "want" and "have taken concrete steps to do so". The BBC's own questions reveal hundreds of thousands plan to come here, and the BBC reports it as a "not significant" number. It's pure bias.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Put your childish xenophobia to one side for a moment.

    Conduct a poll in any major western country and you are going to get hundreds of millions "intending to come to the UK" for some reason or other. A similar poll in France would be illuminating. For you.

    Get a grip.

    Around 10% of France is intending to come to the UK? Evidence please.
    You don't think 10% of France would want to come to the UK?
    I don't think 10% of France intends to.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Socrates said:

    The many polls on the subject in different countries that I've seen over the years always show a big proportion saying they'd like to live in another country - 40% in Britain IIRC. The number who actually do is relatively small, probably for both practical (language, job, uncertainty) and emotional (family ties, attachment to home) reasons.

    There's a big difference between "want" and "intend". There's an even bigger difference between "want" and "have taken concrete steps to do so". The BBC's own questions reveal hundreds of thousands plan to come here, and the BBC reports it as a "not significant" number. It's pure bias.
    You just got pwned.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    Morning all :)

    First, it was a pleasure to meet PB contributors, old and new, as well as OGH, at Dirty Dick's last Friday. I particularly enjoyed conversing with Richard Nabavi and Hersham John but it was also good to meet TSE, Neil and of course Ave It as well as everyone else who was present.

    On-topic, it's interesting to read about Labour and targetting. The LDs have done targetting for decades and Eastleigh was a fine example of what a well-run local machine can manage even when the overall political climate is hostile.

    I've lived in both safe Conservative and Labour seats. I think it's fair to say that both parties have upped their local game from say twenty-five years ago. Here in East Ham (Labour vote 70%) we've had a leaflet not long ago from out three Ward Councillors and of course London local elections are in 2014. In Conservative areas, it tended to be which Branch had the activists and the resources so some areas would see the occasional leaflet and others wouldn't.

    I think another factor is the frequency of elections - in areas with third-up Councils, you were fighting an election every year so the parties were on an almost permanent war footing. In London, we have the locals only every four years with the Mayoral and GLA elections fought on an extra-Borough basis (GLA seats cover two Boroughs at least and sometimes more).

    I suspect it's as hard to motivate the workers when you're 20,000 votes ahead as when you're 20,000 behind.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,422
    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Put your childish xenophobia to one side for a moment.

    Conduct a poll in any major western country and you are going to get hundreds of millions "intending to come to the UK" for some reason or other. A similar poll in France would be illuminating. For you.

    Get a grip.

    Around 10% of France is intending to come to the UK? Evidence please.
    You don't think 10% of France would want to come to the UK?
    Is there anyone stupid enough to think that
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    Mick Pork.

    I didn't tip Blair, other news organisations did, I merely asked the question, is he the man to save the union?

    Again, proof that you're not very bright.

    Which is PB tory speak for 'It wasn't me I only used it as the basis for a thread then tried to defend it.'

    It certainly sounds 'bright' doesn't it?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    Camerons idiot promise, a "bare knuckle fight" to keep every DGH open.

    Even the ones that kill thousands ? Even Brad Pitt in Snatch would throw in the towel on that one.
  • Mick_Pork said:

    Mick Pork.

    I didn't tip Blair, other news organisations did, I merely asked the question, is he the man to save the union?

    Again, proof that you're not very bright.

    Which is PB tory speak for 'It wasn't me I only used it as the basis for thread post then tried to defend it.'

    It certainly sounds 'bright' doesn't it?
    I guess you don't understand how PB thread headers work do you.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,444
    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    Did anyone observe on here the 30,000 who marched in favour of Stafford hospital retaining all clinical services?

    Flying in the face of the political decision to place the trust in administration and to downgrade the hospital itself?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22233260

    Stockholm syndrome.
    I don't think that's fair. Its 30,000 people who wanted the hospital improved but didn't realise the consequences of the approach that had been chosen to improve the hospital.

    Now they do they aren't happy.

    I'm dealing with a smaller similar problem locally. I'm getting mightly fed-up with people who discuss things and then try and implement their half baked incomplete solutions only to find the glaringly obvious flaw in their solution stops it in their tracks.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,444
    tim said:

    Brace yourselves Britains population is about to decline by 45 million

    Three-quarters of Britons want to emigrate with Australia the most popular destination

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1275878/Three-quarters-Britons-want-emigrate-Australia-popular-destination.html#ixzz2RBGV6AXz
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    The grass is always greener on the other side. Until you have a closer look and see the amount of manure required to keep it that colour.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    100 posts in and not one post praising the Labour election leaflet...
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    malcolmg said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    Socrates said:

    BenM said:

    BBC poll on Romanian and Bulgarian plans to move after the end of the initial 7 year restrictions on their movement through the EU rather runs a coach and horses through the lies UKIP have been peddling to their gullible following.

    Yes, almost three million people intending to come to the UK, with the best part of a million already taking concrete steps, won't be any concern to the general public at all.
    Put your childish xenophobia to one side for a moment.

    Conduct a poll in any major western country and you are going to get hundreds of millions "intending to come to the UK" for some reason or other. A similar poll in France would be illuminating. For you.

    Get a grip.

    Around 10% of France is intending to come to the UK? Evidence please.
    You don't think 10% of France would want to come to the UK?
    Is there anyone stupid enough to think that
    Ask @Socrates...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    I should just add - in case he appears later - that for Sunil's benefit, Mrs Stodge and I had a wonderful time on the Epping-Ongar railway on Saturday including a very pleasant lunch in Ongar and an excellent dinner in Epping. For me, the highlight was the ride on the top deck of an old RT bus from Epping out to Ongar.

    It will be marvellous when the line is fully restored to Epping - the plan is to build a platform about 500 yards from the current Epping Underground station. There's a huge potential market for a restored commuter service from Ongar but the big problem is parking. All the potential sites went for residential development when the line was originally closed and there is nowhere left.

    The book shop at Ongar was a mine of fascinating reading on old London transport links - I'd forgotten for example about the link from Newbury Park to Ilford which was closed in 1971 as well as Loughton Sidings but I'll leave Sunil to enlighten us on those.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    I guess you don't understand how PB thread headers work do you.

    Someone else forced you to use that ludicrous speculation as 'serious' subject to then defend?

    I guess you don't understand how 'plausible' that sounds either, do you?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    TGOHF said:

    tim said:

    @TGOHF

    Camerons idiot promise, a "bare knuckle fight" to keep every DGH open.

    Even the ones that kill thousands ? Even Brad Pitt in Snatch would throw in the towel on that one.
    Which DGH killed thousands?

    I've seen no evidence of that at all. Link please.
  • @stodge

    Great to meet you, next time we'll have to chat longer.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Given the number of Poles who have come to Britain since 2004, the numbers of Bulgarians and Romanians stating that they are intending to should be given some credence. Of course, they may well not all come at the same time.
  • Mick_Pork said:

    I guess you don't understand how PB thread headers work do you.

    Someone else forced you to use that ludicrous speculation as 'serious' subject to then defend?

    I guess you don't understand how 'plausible' that sounds either, do you?
    Err no, if you read the original thread header, I praised Blair as a politician, but I added the caveat.

    "Whether that is enough, remains to be seen, as ever, this needs to be seen through the eyes of the voters of Scotland."
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    eek said:

    tim said:

    Brace yourselves Britains population is about to decline by 45 million

    Three-quarters of Britons want to emigrate with Australia the most popular destination

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1275878/Three-quarters-Britons-want-emigrate-Australia-popular-destination.html#ixzz2RBGV6AXz
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    The grass is always greener on the other side. Until you have a closer look and see the amount of manure required to keep it that colour.
    Probably a good reason for distinguishing between those that are "considering" moving and those that have taken concrete steps to do so.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    BBC News (UK) ‏@BBCNews

    Monday's Times front page - "Cameron is told to drop snooping on web users" #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/skwWdts4JF via @suttonnick
    Trouble ahead for the incompetent fop's authoritarian new labour style snoopers charter.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    TGOHF said:

    100 posts in and not one post praising the Labour election leaflet...

    I like the balloons.

  • TGOHF said:

    100 posts in and not one post praising the Labour election leaflet...

    I like the balloons.

    I like the big rosette.

    I recently complained that rosettes had become smaller in recent times.

    So this is a pleasant change.

This discussion has been closed.