Hi Peter, Day four worked out slightly down for me and we got horrendously soaked and decided we prefer smaller meetings! I said I would go back when I own a horse. Not totally beyond the realms of future possibility with my wife's family knowing breeders and trainers.
Startling heatwave here in Vietnam - temperatures in the mid-30s even in Hanoi, which normally doesn't get real heat for another month. Nice atmosphere in Ho Chi Minh City (or Saigon for nostalgics) - streets full of exuberant kids on bikes, pavement cafes and late-night shops packed. Seoul was OK but much more of a business centre than somewhere to stroll around and enjoy. Too hot to do it for long though!
Watching F1 highlights (switched to online after my TV reception died), and got a few potential bets in mind. The rain's the problem. It could be a few spots that make little difference or heavy.
'Punxsutawney Phil, the world-famous weather forecasting groundhog is in trouble with authorities in Ohio after the early spring he predicted failed to materialise.'
Don is the assistant of the retiring MEP. Ducan works at Holyrood and previously stood in Aberdeen South. He's the favourite of Ruth Davidson. McIntyre was the agent of Jackson Carlow MSP in his failed attempts in East Renfrewshire. Ross comes from Edinburgh. McGill stood in Edinburgh Central. Mobarik is the chairwoman of CBI Scotland.
What is happening I spotted some time ago.It is a "parallel process" in reverse from the eighties when the left divided,Ukip's effect is operating "in parallel" in the toxic tens.It led,in part,to the Labour party becoming unelectable from 83 to 97,14 long,barren years.This is the fate of today's Conservative party. As for Ukip.Farrage may target Labour.The evidence so far suggests in areas where Labour has been in absentia,Ukip may well gain but in the areas Labour hope to win ,without trade union support,Ukip is likely to be firing blanks.
SeanT, there are huge amounts of logical flaws on both sides of this argument for people that don't want to look at the facts for ideological reasons. However, some of us "warmists", as you describe them, are happy to be more even-handed. I have been rather open about the fact that we don't really know what will happen to the British Isles. I have also said the theory could be falsified by 20-25 years of flat temperature. But, in line with every national scientific academy in the world, I think the world has been growing warmer over the 20th Century, that this is due to the additional carbon in the atmosphere from human economic activity, this is likely to continue without a course correction, and that this is taking an enormous gamble with the only planet we have. I would thus argue we should take a conservative and prudent approach by re-aligning our tax burden away from labour and onto pollution, and that we can do this with only a minor impact on economic growth, despite the alarmism of the hard left.
Great effort from Dubai Hills. He was the class horse, but the race wasn't run to suit, hence the blanket finish. F/c a bit lucky, in truth, but a value bet, so maybe we earned the luck.
Having a bloody good day. Was on Cheetahs in the Super Rugby, and picked the first. Now making hay with your tips. I actually had earlier stuck a few quid on Dubai Hills. Now if Northampton can win in the snow and someone can push for a result in Auckland I will be very happy.
Did you lay the draw? Came in to 1/3 at one point,
Socrates, science doesn't work by majority vote. Outside their specialist field, most scientists are little more than well-educated laymen - a better grasp of statistics than most, but no special knowledge - which makes the collective opinion of a National Academy near worthless, little better than asking a random collection of university graduates.
To assess whether critics and supporters of global warming are worth paying attention to, you need to look at their individual backgrounds. If they're not expert on both climate and statistics, discount them.
"Therefore Blair needs to debate Alistair, and Alex or perhaps Nicola should perhaps debate Dave or Nick as they lead the parliaments but they do not lead the campaigns."
Absolutely. The debate everyone wants to see is Cameron v Salmond, as after all the independence referendum boils down to a choice of which of those you want to see as Prime Minister of your country.
Not surprising that the unionists are running a mile from that one.
Yeah I lost on that weather forecast. But I don't understand it. I was looking at the satellite pictures and STILL couldn't see the sodding clouds that were clearly over the ground when I watched the telly.
Probably, Rog. I'm also on Mucky Molly e/w if you want another one to avoid!
Weird that I'm having so much fun on a day when so much is off. To be honest, I'm quite grateful at not trying to pick from huge 20-runner fields at Doncaster without any form to go on. Peter has allowed me t put my pin away!
As a punter, Lucian, I have sympathy with those who try to predict the future, but weather forecasters sometimes get the now wrong. I swear the Met Office building doesn't have windows.
In my book, they have little more credibility than astrologers.
"Cameron vs Salmond, only one winner. Salmond vs Darling, only one winner"
I agree - Salmond would win both comfortably. It's very frustrating for us that we can't afford to agree to a Salmond v Darling debate, but the reason we can't is very simple - it would play into the unionist fantasy that there is some kind of less hostile, vaguely social democratic version of the UK that we can choose to remain in, rather than the harsh Tory reality.
The choice before voters must be presented authentically.
Twitter Andrew Tennant @10anta 2m @Ed_Miliband The 'lost decade' isn't the current one, but 1997-2010 when #Labour spent money we didn't have on stuff we can no longer afford
Nate Silver covers some of this ground but more seriously in his excellent book The Signal and The Noise. He describes a kind of hierarchy of predictive sciences which purport to be better than guesswork, but are sometimes not much better.
In fairness, I should acknowledge that on his evidence, weather forecasting has improved a lot in the past twenty years or so, albeit from next-door-to-useless to not-bad-if-you-don't-expect-too-much. Seismologists are admirable if make sufficient allowance for the difficulty of the subject.
Political scientists and economists are about the worst.
Is it just me or has Tim's last comment disappeared? I hope that isn't a gremlin in the new system - I can't believe it was moderated because there was nothing offensive in it.
"Surely UKIP have more chance than Labour of topping the poll at the Euros? They came second in 2009, whereas Labour were third."
Which happened because Labour were in government at the time. The major opposition party topped the poll, so all things being equal you would probably expect the major opposition party to top the poll this time.
James Kelly: "The major opposition party topped the poll, so all things being equal you would probably expect the major opposition party to top the poll this time. "
That's precisely why UKIP will top the poll: they are the main opposition to Can/Lab/Lib which have dominated UK politics since 1991.
"Hopefully Maria Hutchings can be accommodated on a list of some sort by the Tories "
Tories have 4 South East MEPs. 3 of them (basically not Hannan) aren't in their youngest days. I don't think any of them announced retirement plans yet but I wouldn't be surprising to see some of them standing down. And 1 of them will risk a lot in a all members ballot anyway.
but how many seats will Con get in SE? It's currently 4 Con 2 UKIP 2 LD 1 Green 1 Lab
2009 Con 34.8 UKIP 18.8 LD 14.1 Green 11.6 Lab 8.2
Something like Con 28 UKIP 25 Lab 14 Green 11 LD 11 would give 3 Con 3 UKIP 1 Lab 1 Green 1 LD and a close fight for the final seat between Con, Lab and UKIP.
Comments
I saw your avatar and immediately thought of Sir Patrick Moore on Halloween!
Not you as well...
'Punxsutawney Phil, the world-famous weather forecasting groundhog is in trouble with authorities in Ohio after the early spring he predicted failed to materialise.'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/weirdnewsvideo/9949597/Celebrity-groundhog-Punxsutawney-Phil-indicted-for-poor-weather-forecast.html
The Ohio groundhog, Buckeye Chuck, also predicted an early spring.
The Georgia groundhog, Gen. Beauregard Lee, predicted a longer winter, so he's safe from harm or extradition.
He should just be glad that Pennsylvania never signed an extradition treaty with Ohio...
Betting PostBacked Massa for a podium at 2.64, hedged at 1.3 Pre-race piece is here:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/malaysia-pre-race.html
Belinda Don, Ian Duncan, Nicola Ross, Jamie Gardiner, Nosheena Mobarik, Iain McGill and Stuart McIntyre
Unsurprisingly, I guess...his opponent had Cardiff origins but he's not a Cllr in Birmingham
As for Ukip.Farrage may target Labour.The evidence so far suggests in areas where Labour has been in absentia,Ukip may well gain but in the areas Labour hope to win ,without trade union support,Ukip is likely to be firing blanks.
If you are not used to watching AW racing, you might be surprised by the huge variability in the quality of the jockeys.
This was amply illustrated by my first two selections.
Win or lose, Dubai Hills should not lack for assistance from the saddle.
Get the forecast?
Super dooper. Had my largest bet of the day on Dubai AND had a tickle on the forecast. I don't usually do those. What a tip thanks a bundle Pete
Great effort from Dubai Hills. He was the class horse, but the race wasn't run to suit, hence the blanket finish. F/c a bit lucky, in truth, but a value bet, so maybe we earned the luck.
Very welcome, Rog.
As I've mentioned before, I've had a great season on the AW, but that hasn't always been evident from the selections I have posted here.
Don't think I'll be getting many complaints today though!
I just need your last to come in for a nive double as well
Did you lay the draw? Came in to 1/3 at one point,
To assess whether critics and supporters of global warming are worth paying attention to, you need to look at their individual backgrounds. If they're not expert on both climate and statistics, discount them.
"Therefore Blair needs to debate Alistair, and Alex or perhaps Nicola should perhaps debate Dave or Nick as they lead the parliaments but they do not lead the campaigns."
Absolutely. The debate everyone wants to see is Cameron v Salmond, as after all the independence referendum boils down to a choice of which of those you want to see as Prime Minister of your country.
Not surprising that the unionists are running a mile from that one.
Getting greedy now....!
In fact if you had asked me for just one today, it would have been Conas Ata Tu, but as we know, it don't always work out that way.
Stopped betting on the cricket after losing £100 on a dodgy weather forecast.
NZ weathermen are no worse than our own, but at least here you can look out of the window and see for yourself.
Peter_the_Punter
3:34PM
@Blue_Rog
Getting greedy now....!
In fact if you had asked me for just one today, it would have been Conas Ata Tu, but as we know, it don't always work out that way.
"Ties hands together to stop putting all today's winnings on Conas"
I will be thankful for whatever today, I'm nicely in profit.
Greed is good
3.43
You've jinxed it now
Weird that I'm having so much fun on a day when so much is off. To be honest, I'm quite grateful at not trying to pick from huge 20-runner fields at Doncaster without any form to go on. Peter has allowed me t put my pin away!
As a punter, Lucian, I have sympathy with those who try to predict the future, but weather forecasters sometimes get the now wrong. I swear the Met Office building doesn't have windows.
In my book, they have little more credibility than astrologers.
who will debate with La-Mont and Boy Sarwar?! Who are you offering? Alex Neil and the Witch of Perth?
"In my book, they have little more credibility than astrologers."
Pick your poison
http://crispian-jago.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-venn-diagram-of-irrational-nonsense.html
Salmond vs Darling, only one winner"
I agree - Salmond would win both comfortably. It's very frustrating for us that we can't afford to agree to a Salmond v Darling debate, but the reason we can't is very simple - it would play into the unionist fantasy that there is some kind of less hostile, vaguely social democratic version of the UK that we can choose to remain in, rather than the harsh Tory reality.
The choice before voters must be presented authentically.
'"...the harsh Tory Reality" has probably not existed in the UK since the mid C19th, and certainly never since WW2.
Deluded?
Deluded?
Yes, you certainly are.
Andrew Tennant @10anta 2m
@Ed_Miliband The 'lost decade' isn't the current one, but 1997-2010 when #Labour spent money we didn't have on stuff we can no longer afford
Excellent, Scott.
Nate Silver covers some of this ground but more seriously in his excellent book The Signal and The Noise. He describes a kind of hierarchy of predictive sciences which purport to be better than guesswork, but are sometimes not much better.
In fairness, I should acknowledge that on his evidence, weather forecasting has improved a lot in the past twenty years or so, albeit from next-door-to-useless to not-bad-if-you-don't-expect-too-much. Seismologists are admirable if make sufficient allowance for the difficulty of the subject.
Political scientists and economists are about the worst.
It follows therefore that the 2/1 Ladbrokes are offering is decent value.
Which happened because Labour were in government at the time. The major opposition party topped the poll, so all things being equal you would probably expect the major opposition party to top the poll this time.
"The major opposition party topped the poll, so all things being equal you would probably expect the major opposition party to top the poll this time. "
That's precisely why UKIP will top the poll: they are the main opposition to Can/Lab/Lib which have dominated UK politics since 1991.
Tories have 4 South East MEPs. 3 of them (basically not Hannan) aren't in their youngest days. I don't think any of them announced retirement plans yet but I wouldn't be surprising to see some of them standing down. And 1 of them will risk a lot in a all members ballot anyway.
but how many seats will Con get in SE? It's currently 4 Con 2 UKIP 2 LD 1 Green 1 Lab
2009 Con 34.8 UKIP 18.8 LD 14.1 Green 11.6 Lab 8.2
Something like Con 28 UKIP 25 Lab 14 Green 11 LD 11 would give 3 Con 3 UKIP 1 Lab 1 Green 1 LD and a close fight for the final seat between Con, Lab and UKIP.