Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
Dunno, I might be wrong but i suspect an equilibrium would return to English politics sooner rather than later, a double doze of Brexit & BJ being a salutary experience.
I'm still not entirely sure whether Starmer gives a toss about the Union but just feels he needs to make appropriate noises. Pragmatically if I were him I'd plan as if Scotland were lost and concentrate on making Labour palatable to England. Probably won't make for very attractive politics, but we are where we are..
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The only way they start to recover in Scotland, is for Starmer to clearly and unequivocally state that he would never work with the SNP.
Pretty much every wargaming of a UK coalition involving the SNP ends with a quick second election, where the U.K. electorate can can pass judgement on the party that appeased the nationalists to get their own power.
I don’t think it would make any difference what Labour says. They aren’t going to recover in Scotland in the near-term regardless.
Scotland has gone - the only question is really when does it go and does it go with the blessing of the rest of the UK or not.
It isn't gone, including Don't Knows Yes is still only around 50% and that is despite PM Boris and Brexit already being delivered and Covid etc.
In any case Boris will block indyref2 while he remains PM so indyref2 will likely only come under a PM Starmer reliant on SNP MPs support
Wait until Brexit occurs - once reality kicks in that support will be over 60%...
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
I’m sorry but you can’t see the future. Nobody knows for sure.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
Well it objectively has not helped the Union. At least not yet.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
If the Tangerine Nightmare were still capable of getting his leg over, I'm sure that he'd be heading into Portland with 2 big cylinders throbbing between his legs.
Yikes. If I'm surrounded by them I'm coming over very "patriotic" indeed until they've gone.
The Donald, of course, would likely run a mile from any actual danger. One does not sense great physical courage there.
This is a bit scary. I was pretty happy that 'they' would never let Trump press (or anywhere near) the button. I never thought about him starting a civil war.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
You're going to feel sicker than a cyclist with piles if it turns out your Brexit vote ensured you being a part of the EU for the foreseeable future as Scotland exits the UK.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The only way they start to recover in Scotland, is for Starmer to clearly and unequivocally state that he would never work with the SNP.
Pretty much every wargaming of a UK coalition involving the SNP ends with a quick second election, where the U.K. electorate can can pass judgement on the party that appeased the nationalists to get their own power.
I don’t think it would make any difference what Labour says. They aren’t going to recover in Scotland in the near-term regardless.
Scotland has gone - the only question is really when does it go and does it go with the blessing of the rest of the UK or not.
It isn't gone, including Don't Knows Yes is still only around 50% and that is despite PM Boris and Brexit already being delivered and Covid etc.
In any case Boris will block indyref2 while he remains PM so indyref2 will likely only come under a PM Starmer reliant on SNP MPs support
Wait until Brexit occurs - once reality kicks in that support will be over 60%...
Brexit has already been delivered, if it was decisive Yes would already be over 60% but it isn't because over a third of SNP voters voted to Leave the EU and were already voting Yes and because the highest voteshare for Remaining in the EU in Scotland came from Scottish LD voters and the LDs remain pro Union despite Brexit, they oppose hard Brexit and Scottish independence as do Scottish Labour
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
You're going to feel sicker than a cyclist with piles if it turns out your Brexit vote ensured you being a part of the EU for the foreseeable future as Scotland exits the UK.
The Brexit loons wanted to destroy the EU. They are more likely to destroy the UK. What an achievement!
Does anyone know about Pollwatch and the Democracy Institute re the poll that Trump is tweeting about putting him ahead nationally and in battleground states. I can only find stuff in the Daily Express about it who appear to be involved in the poll (why?) and basic info on both organisations. Nobody else is talking about it. I assume it isn't reputable, but can't find anything either way validating or slagging it off.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The only way they start to recover in Scotland, is for Starmer to clearly and unequivocally state that he would never work with the SNP.
Pretty much every wargaming of a UK coalition involving the SNP ends with a quick second election, where the U.K. electorate can can pass judgement on the party that appeased the nationalists to get their own power.
I don’t think it would make any difference what Labour says. They aren’t going to recover in Scotland in the near-term regardless.
Scotland has gone - the only question is really when does it go and does it go with the blessing of the rest of the UK or not.
It isn't gone, including Don't Knows Yes is still only around 50% and that is despite PM Boris and Brexit already being delivered and Covid etc.
In any case Boris will block indyref2 while he remains PM so indyref2 will likely only come under a PM Starmer reliant on SNP MPs support
Wait until Brexit occurs - once reality kicks in that support will be over 60%...
There is of course much truth in the article. But Mr Meeks shies away from confronting a central issue. Voting intention is a relative not an absolute issue. There may be a few million voters in the centre (left and right) who would dearly love to express an intention to vote for centrist competence of any sort but do not know where it might come from.
Mr Meeks asks the right questions of the Tories and finds them wanting. But where is the evidence that voting somewhere else will produce a better outcome?
Labour have to prove a point on both policy and competence. An article showing what it is they believe about the critical issues of the day, how it can be implemented, and who is on the front bench with the capacity to deliver it would be illuminating. Can PBs Labour supporters provide one?
They can start with labour policy on Brexit, the pandemic, education, deficit, debt, Scotland and Ireland and then move on to the tough ones.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
A Tory party no longer able to wave the Union Jack because it has overseen the end of the UK may find that taking English voters for granted is not the wisest strategy.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
I would prefer the union to endure but realistically, unless something drastic happens, it’s gone. The English feel English, and concern themselves with issues and politics that affect them.
It is true that ever since the botched devolution settlement under Blair everything possible seems to have been done to undermine the Union and the common purpose that was once so self evident. I regret those trends (of course) and hope it is not too late for us once again to think about what we do better together, to coin a phrase.
The Union was being undermined by the Tories way before Blair.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The only way they start to recover in Scotland, is for Starmer to clearly and unequivocally state that he would never work with the SNP.
Pretty much every wargaming of a UK coalition involving the SNP ends with a quick second election, where the U.K. electorate can can pass judgement on the party that appeased the nationalists to get their own power.
I don’t think it would make any difference what Labour says. They aren’t going to recover in Scotland in the near-term regardless.
Scotland has gone - the only question is really when does it go and does it go with the blessing of the rest of the UK or not.
It isn't gone, including Don't Knows Yes is still only around 50% and that is despite PM Boris and Brexit already being delivered and Covid etc.
In any case Boris will block indyref2 while he remains PM so indyref2 will likely only come under a PM Starmer reliant on SNP MPs support
Wait until Brexit occurs - once reality kicks in that support will be over 60%...
Brexit has already been delivered, if it was decisive Yes would already be over 60% but it isn't because over a third of SNP voters voted to Leave the EU and were already voting Yes and because the highest voteshare for Remaining in the EU in Scotland came from Scottish LD voters and the LDs remain pro Union despite Brexit, they oppose hard Brexit and Scottish independence as do Scottish Labour
Imagine you bought Brexit online: Brexit has been ordered and you are committed, but it hasn't been delivered yet. That joy is yet to come and the delivery will come in many stages.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
Well it objectively has not helped the Union. At least not yet.
I am just waiting for the United Ireland to happen now that Boris has erected a border between N Ireland and Great Britain. It is clear that the Tories want N Ireland gone and it costs them nothing in electoral terms....
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
You're going to feel sicker than a cyclist with piles if it turns out your Brexit vote ensured you being a part of the EU for the foreseeable future as Scotland exits the UK.
The Brexit loons wanted to destroy the EU. They are more likely to destroy the UK. What an achievement!
Brexiteers doing the work of the IRA and Vladimir Putin, the scary thing is most of them don't appear to feel any shame about contributing to the breakup of the UK.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
A Tory party no longer able to wave the Union Jack because it has overseen the end of the UK may find that taking English voters for granted is not the wisest strategy.
But HYUFD has been writing for weeks that he and Johnson can stick the end of the Union on Labour in the event of a hung parliament. The history books have Johnson off the hook, scot-free. No pun intended!
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
If the Tangerine Nightmare were still capable of getting his leg over, I'm sure that he'd be heading into Portland with 2 big cylinders throbbing between his legs.
Yikes. If I'm surrounded by them I'm coming over very "patriotic" indeed until they've gone.
The Donald, of course, would likely run a mile from any actual danger. One does not sense great physical courage there.
This is a bit scary. I was pretty happy that 'they' would never let Trump press (or anywhere near) the button. I never thought about him starting a civil war.
Yes he would be "managed" out of doing anything too crazy overseas but domestically he can certainly cause mayhem. Even post defeat. Perhaps especially post defeat.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
You're going to feel sicker than a cyclist with piles if it turns out your Brexit vote ensured you being a part of the EU for the foreseeable future as Scotland exits the UK.
The Brexit loons wanted to destroy the EU. They are more likely to destroy the UK. What an achievement!
Brexiteers doing the work of the IRA and Vladimir Putin, the scary thing is most of them don't appear to feel any shame about contributing to the breakup of the UK.
I don't think they have even begun to think through its implications. But the domestic fury caused by the international humiliation will be quite a thing.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
There is of course much truth in the article. But Mr Meeks shies away from confronting a central issue. Voting intention is a relative not an absolute issue. There may be a few million voters in the centre (left and right) who would dearly love to express an intention to vote for centrist competence of any sort but do not know where it might come from.
Mr Meeks asks the right questions of the Tories and finds them wanting. But where is the evidence that voting somewhere else will produce a better outcome?
Labour have to prove a point on both policy and competence. An article showing what it is they believe about the critical issues of the day, how it can be implemented, and who is on the front bench with the capacity to deliver it would be illuminating. Can PBs Labour supporters provide one?
They can start with labour policy on Brexit, the pandemic, education, deficit, debt, Scotland and Ireland and then move on to the tough ones.
There is of course much truth in the article. But Mr Meeks shies away from confronting a central issue. Voting intention is a relative not an absolute issue. There may be a few million voters in the centre (left and right) who would dearly love to express an intention to vote for centrist competence of any sort but do not know where it might come from.
Mr Meeks asks the right questions of the Tories and finds them wanting. But where is the evidence that voting somewhere else will produce a better outcome?
Labour have to prove a point on both policy and competence. An article showing what it is they believe about the critical issues of the day, how it can be implemented, and who is on the front bench with the capacity to deliver it would be illuminating. Can PBs Labour supporters provide one?
They can start with labour policy on Brexit, the pandemic, education, deficit, debt, Scotland and Ireland and then move on to the tough ones.
Why? Labour can sit back and let Johnson do all their heavy lifting. To avoid a hostage to fortune problem down the line, policy need not be set out until much closer to 2024.
I don't think they have even begun to think through its implications. But the domestic fury caused by the international humiliation will be quite a thing.
I have an ex client who runs his own firm which exports mostly to the EU, he backed Brexit and thinks in the event of No Deal things will be fine because British hauliers are great, and will be able to simply drive into France, no problems.
He's getting into quite a tiff with his auditors (and other people in his company) who have going concern issues in the event of a no deal Brexit.
This was the one that Boris f**ked up right at the beginning, with that rambling incoherent television address so memorably lampooned by Matt Lucas, which included announcing the supposedly clear new five-stage national alert system, and then saying we were currently at level three-and-a-half.
It never got off the runway.
The new system is: watch what Scotland is doing; wait a week during which ministers can build the suspense by denying or trashing the Scottish approach; do the same.
Yes, Johnson copies Sturgeons homework then hands it in late.
The SNP would not be anywhere near as popular without the Tories as a foil. It has been the cover for a lot of other failures.
It is Johnson's malevolent incompetence, as outlined in the header, that will end the United Kingdom.
The end of Transition is set to be a trainwreck too. What else can we expect?
Yesterday’s Briefing Room on R4 is well worth a listen. It included the suggestion that a thin last minute deal might be accompanied by an “implementation period” - during which everything would stay the same as currently. As a way to extend without actually extending.
He’ll be out of the door as quickly as Theresa May was, if he tries that one.
But who would they replace him with?
Rishi (= Disraeli)?????? Traditionally the Tories love a winner. And that goes above anything else.
Looks like Rishi plans to copy Corbyns 2019 manifesto on tax. The cycle of copying Labours manifesto is accelerating.
If they ramp up IHT or lower the thresholds then I'll be surprised - in a good way. But I doubt that they will. Going after estates enrages both stickbangers and their heirs in a way almost nothing else will, and is political nuclear death (as Theresa May discovered with the dementia tax.)
The Government won't want to go after income tax, NI and VAT - too controversial, too obvious - with the caveat that they might scrap the preferential NI rate currently enjoyed by the self-employed, which is something that Sunak has hinted at in the past. They daren't touch the stickbangers, of course, so we are stuck with the wretched triple lock for the foreseeable. Hiking corporation tax at the same time as trying to get us through Brexit might be considered brave, in the Sir Humphrey sense.
Thus, the most obvious targets are tax reliefs enjoyed by the working age population. The prime candidate is a big Brown-style raid on pensions, this time normalising reliefs at the basic rate for all contributions. The FT was suggesting earlier in the year that CGT might be rounded up to a flat rate of 28% for all assets, and my husband was also speculating just yesterday that the annual contribution limit for ISAs might be cut in half.
Of course, the most radical measure would be to go all out with a wealth tax and pocket a one-off levy on all assets - savings, pensions, shares, property, the lot - which could potentially recoup the cost of all the extra borrowing taken out during the Plague. But I think it really would take a Corbyn Government to dare to try something like that!
The Sunday Times is reporting this differently - with all pensions relief given at 30% thus higher than the basic rate but lower than the higher rate thus avoiding the obvious headlines of either.
I think something like that is likely.
Some interesting ideas.
But they need to stop ignoring the elephant in the room, which is the £25bn+ spent on the main residence relief CGT loophole.
That is worth more than all the rest put together.
Careful Matt, I brought this up a few weeks ago and got absolutely minced.
CGT on primary residence would end Sunak's chances of being elected Tory leader within about five seconds.
Also replying to @contrarian who basically posted the same.
You are probably right.
Can anyone remember the impact of removing Mortgage Tax Relief which I would have thought even more dramatic.
Lawson salami sliced it and at a time of rapidly rising house prices (which the government was seeking to cool) it had minimal impact.
He preannounced it which accelerated the boom and then caused a subsequent bust.
That makes no sense. Its not as if MIRAS was locked in for those who bought before a particular date. It was removed for everyone from a date. Pre-announcing it meant people could work out what their mortgage would be when it was gone and whether they could afford the house. This caused a modest dampening to the market not a boom or a subsequent bust.
The issue with charging CGT on principal residences is that it makes it difficult to move.
- Upsizing: a chunk of your equity gets paid out in tax at the point you are buying. Makes it much harder to upsize - Downsizing: motivation for releasing capital is lower
The best way is to allow a rollover relief; ie if you reinvest your proceeds into another principal residence in 6-9 months then you get to avoid the CGT charge.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
A Tory party no longer able to wave the Union Jack because it has overseen the end of the UK may find that taking English voters for granted is not the wisest strategy.
But HYUFD has been writing for weeks that he and Johnson can stick the end of the Union on Labour in the event of a hung parliament. The history books have Johnson off the hook, scot-free. No pun intended!
If fascism is the politics of despair then balkanisation is the inevitable consequence of a psychologically scarred electorate. The Union is doomed because the Tory alienation during the 80's was horrific, similar to wales but SNP are a far more effective party than Plaid. Coupled with most of Scotland being remainers you can see why they feel so far removed.
The end of the Union would be the worst case scenario for everyone an it is totally unnecessary but sadly ever more likely. Labour took the hit during SINDY by being the only people trying to save the union.
There is of course much truth in the article. But Mr Meeks shies away from confronting a central issue. Voting intention is a relative not an absolute issue. There may be a few million voters in the centre (left and right) who would dearly love to express an intention to vote for centrist competence of any sort but do not know where it might come from.
Mr Meeks asks the right questions of the Tories and finds them wanting. But where is the evidence that voting somewhere else will produce a better outcome?
Labour have to prove a point on both policy and competence. An article showing what it is they believe about the critical issues of the day, how it can be implemented, and who is on the front bench with the capacity to deliver it would be illuminating. Can PBs Labour supporters provide one?
They can start with labour policy on Brexit, the pandemic, education, deficit, debt, Scotland and Ireland and then move on to the tough ones.
Why? Labour can sit back and let Johnson do all their heavy lifting. To avoid a hostage to fortune problem down the line, policy need not be set out until much closer to 2024.
Exactly. No policies whatsoever are needed yet. Just a narrative that Johnson and his government are uncaring and incompetent.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
Well it objectively has not helped the Union. At least not yet.
I am just waiting for the United Ireland to happen now that Boris has erected a border between N Ireland and Great Britain. It is clear that the Tories want N Ireland gone and it costs them nothing in electoral terms....
Hmmm. In Antrim and along the Crumlin Road last week, I saw the Union and St George flags were flying in very big numbers. Still, if Scotland were to drop out, the game could change.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
A Tory party no longer able to wave the Union Jack because it has overseen the end of the UK may find that taking English voters for granted is not the wisest strategy.
But HYUFD has been writing for weeks that he and Johnson can stick the end of the Union on Labour in the event of a hung parliament. The history books have Johnson off the hook, scot-free. No pun intended!
If fascism is the politics of despair then balkanisation is the inevitable consequence of a psychologically scarred electorate. The Union is doomed because the Tory alienation during the 80's was horrific, similar to wales but SNP are a far more effective party than Plaid. Coupled with most of Scotland being remainers you can see why they feel so far removed.
The end of the Union would be the worst case scenario for everyone an it is totally unnecessary but sadly ever more likely. Labour took the hit during SINDY by being the only people trying to save the union.
Yes teaming up and being the Tories little helpers did them a real lot of good. PS: Not the worst case scenario by far for the many of us who want independencer.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
The federal,agents you mean?
Lol what? Why not have a look at some of the videos of what Antifa and BLM supporters have been getting up to the last few months.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
The unidentifiable masked federals that Trump sent in?
The concept of Ministerial responsibility is completely daft in the modern world.
Sorry but your attacks on the concept of Ministerial responsibility are silly.
“The buck stops here” which is what Ministerial responsibility means is not an absurd fiction. It is the very essence of leadership.
It is, to give another real world example, what lies behind the FCA’s Senior Manager Regime: to ensure that people at the top understand that they cannot take only the benefits of jobs without also taking the responsibilities.
If Ministers only last a few months in their jobs or move round too frequently, that’s not a reason to ditch the concept. That’s poor management by the PM. If people can’t master their brief they’re not up to it & shouldn’t be in the job. If Ministers can’t ask intelligent probing questions, ditto.
The education algorithm was daft for two reasons:-
1.The wrong question was asked: how to give a grade for an exam not taken. When the question should have been: how do we deal with the consequences of there being no exams ie how can pupils, schools, firms, universities etc make the decisions needed for the next stage? The answers might have been different for different groups eg universities could have simply relied on their own offers, as some did. Or there could have been delayed entry following delayed exams. Or a combination of things. They had months to think about it. Instead of which it was all about producing a grade for something which didn’t happen to prevent grade inflation, a priority imposed by the regulator at the behest of Ministers, allegedly. 2. An algorithm is utterly useless to determine an individual result for 2 years of school work. An exam may be an equally useless way of doing it - but it was one Michael Gove and his advisor, Cummings, with his love for data & algorithms - who removed any other data - like coursework - which might have made the problem easier to solve. This seems to have been forgotten. Then the government has the nerve to blame others for a mutant algorithm when at its heart is an advisor who thinks algorithms should replace civil servants.
Civil servants may well have been incompetent.If so, they should be disciplined. But aren’t they entitled to examination of the facts, due process,
I don’t think a Minister should resign just because a junior clerk somewhere makes a mistake in a big department. But this is not that type of issue. They had one job to do for the end of the school year. This was it. They messed it up. Like all incompetent bullies they sought to find someone to blame first to protect themselves.
If we move to a system like the one you describe, where civil servants can talk publicly about what goes on with Ministers, great. But will Ministers will really like it? A lot of them will find their carefully polished images don’t last 5 minutes when exposed to the truth by those who work for them. Civil servants not answering back protects Ministers too. They should be careful what they wish for.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
The unidentifiable masked federals that Trump sent in?
Right the 30 people that have been killed in the riots the past few months were all caused by Trump the last few days.
Honestly people on here are completely brainwashed.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
Well it objectively has not helped the Union. At least not yet.
I am just waiting for the United Ireland to happen now that Boris has erected a border between N Ireland and Great Britain. It is clear that the Tories want N Ireland gone and it costs them nothing in electoral terms....
Hmmm. In Antrim and along the Crumlin Road last week, I saw the Union and St George flags were flying in very big numbers. Still, if Scotland were to drop out, the game could change.
If you have gone to one or two other spots, you would have seen large numbers of nationalist emblems too.
Besides, you are looking at this from the wrong end of the stick. NI may not want to go, but it has been made quite clear that from the GB side, NI is seen as an impediment to Brexit and Westmister's life would be a lot easier if it can jettison NI.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
The unidentifiable masked federals that Trump sent in?
Right the 30 people that have been killed in the riots the past few months were all caused by Trump the last few days.
Honestly people on here are completely brainwashed.
What on earth are you on about? I agree some people on here are completely brainwashed.
This was the one that Boris f**ked up right at the beginning, with that rambling incoherent television address so memorably lampooned by Matt Lucas, which included announcing the supposedly clear new five-stage national alert system, and then saying we were currently at level three-and-a-half.
It never got off the runway.
The new system is: watch what Scotland is doing; wait a week during which ministers can build the suspense by denying or trashing the Scottish approach; do the same.
Yes, Johnson copies Sturgeons homework then hands it in late.
The SNP would not be anywhere near as popular without the Tories as a foil. It has been the cover for a lot of other failures.
It is Johnson's malevolent incompetence, as outlined in the header, that will end the United Kingdom.
The end of Transition is set to be a trainwreck too. What else can we expect?
Yesterday’s Briefing Room on R4 is well worth a listen. It included the suggestion that a thin last minute deal might be accompanied by an “implementation period” - during which everything would stay the same as currently. As a way to extend without actually extending.
He’ll be out of the door as quickly as Theresa May was, if he tries that one.
But who would they replace him with?
Rishi (= Disraeli)?????? Traditionally the Tories love a winner. And that goes above anything else.
Looks like Rishi plans to copy Corbyns 2019 manifesto on tax. The cycle of copying Labours manifesto is accelerating.
If they ramp up IHT or lower the thresholds then I'll be surprised - in a good way. But I doubt that they will. Going after estates enrages both stickbangers and their heirs in a way almost nothing else will, and is political nuclear death (as Theresa May discovered with the dementia tax.)
The Government won't want to go after income tax, NI and VAT - too controversial, too obvious - with the caveat that they might scrap the preferential NI rate currently enjoyed by the self-employed, which is something that Sunak has hinted at in the past. They daren't touch the stickbangers, of course, so we are stuck with the wretched triple lock for the foreseeable. Hiking corporation tax at the same time as trying to get us through Brexit might be considered brave, in the Sir Humphrey sense.
Thus, the most obvious targets are tax reliefs enjoyed by the working age population. The prime candidate is a big Brown-style raid on pensions, this time normalising reliefs at the basic rate for all contributions. The FT was suggesting earlier in the year that CGT might be rounded up to a flat rate of 28% for all assets, and my husband was also speculating just yesterday that the annual contribution limit for ISAs might be cut in half.
Of course, the most radical measure would be to go all out with a wealth tax and pocket a one-off levy on all assets - savings, pensions, shares, property, the lot - which could potentially recoup the cost of all the extra borrowing taken out during the Plague. But I think it really would take a Corbyn Government to dare to try something like that!
The Sunday Times is reporting this differently - with all pensions relief given at 30% thus higher than the basic rate but lower than the higher rate thus avoiding the obvious headlines of either.
I think something like that is likely.
Some interesting ideas.
But they need to stop ignoring the elephant in the room, which is the £25bn+ spent on the main residence relief CGT loophole.
That is worth more than all the rest put together.
Careful Matt, I brought this up a few weeks ago and got absolutely minced.
CGT on primary residence would end Sunak's chances of being elected Tory leader within about five seconds.
Also replying to @contrarian who basically posted the same.
You are probably right.
Can anyone remember the impact of removing Mortgage Tax Relief which I would have thought even more dramatic.
Lawson salami sliced it and at a time of rapidly rising house prices (which the government was seeking to cool) it had minimal impact.
He preannounced it which accelerated the boom and then caused a subsequent bust.
That makes no sense. Its not as if MIRAS was locked in for those who bought before a particular date. It was removed for everyone from a date. Pre-announcing it meant people could work out what their mortgage would be when it was gone and whether they could afford the house. This caused a modest dampening to the market not a boom or a subsequent bust.
According to Wikipedia when the multiple mortgage tax relief withdrawal was announced it caused a sharp increase in house prices to beat the deadline. Lawson subsequently stated he regretted not making it effective from budget day.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
A Tory party no longer able to wave the Union Jack because it has overseen the end of the UK may find that taking English voters for granted is not the wisest strategy.
But HYUFD has been writing for weeks that he and Johnson can stick the end of the Union on Labour in the event of a hung parliament. The history books have Johnson off the hook, scot-free. No pun intended!
If fascism is the politics of despair then balkanisation is the inevitable consequence of a psychologically scarred electorate. The Union is doomed because the Tory alienation during the 80's was horrific, similar to wales but SNP are a far more effective party than Plaid. Coupled with most of Scotland being remainers you can see why they feel so far removed.
The end of the Union would be the worst case scenario for everyone an it is totally unnecessary but sadly ever more likely. Labour took the hit during SINDY by being the only people trying to save the union.
Yes teaming up and being the Tories little helpers did them a real lot of good.
But the whole point is that they didn't. The Tories and Labour are both Unionist parties, it isn't a rude word. Labour had to be the ones to campaign because the Tories are so toxic. The Uk media love to blow smoke up Sturgeon to highlight the obvious frailties in English politicians. The reality is the SNP are absolutely dreadful and many scottish communities have given themselves away as greedy fantasists, similar to the nice folk in Cornwall who make Billions from overpriced tourism and then thought during COVID they could tell people who owned property there they were not allowed to live there even if they had followed lockdown rules. These places will find they have rapidly run out of friends when the phantom recession starts really feeding. And it will all be the fault of middle class English men (yawn)
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
The unidentifiable masked federals that Trump sent in?
Right the 30 people that have been killed in the riots the past few months were all caused by Trump the last few days.
Honestly people on here are completely brainwashed.
What on earth are you on about? I agree some people on here are completely brainwashed.
I'm talking about the masked antifa thugs that have been causing trouble the last few months. You seem to think they are masked federal agents for some reason.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
You need a touch more imagination and bandwidth then.
There is of course much truth in the article. But Mr Meeks shies away from confronting a central issue. Voting intention is a relative not an absolute issue. There may be a few million voters in the centre (left and right) who would dearly love to express an intention to vote for centrist competence of any sort but do not know where it might come from.
Mr Meeks asks the right questions of the Tories and finds them wanting. But where is the evidence that voting somewhere else will produce a better outcome?
Labour have to prove a point on both policy and competence. An article showing what it is they believe about the critical issues of the day, how it can be implemented, and who is on the front bench with the capacity to deliver it would be illuminating. Can PBs Labour supporters provide one?
They can start with labour policy on Brexit, the pandemic, education, deficit, debt, Scotland and Ireland and then move on to the tough ones.
Why? Labour can sit back and let Johnson do all their heavy lifting. To avoid a hostage to fortune problem down the line, policy need not be set out until much closer to 2024.
Exactly. No policies whatsoever are needed yet. Just a narrative that Johnson and his government are uncaring and incompetent.
I disagree. They need to decide what sort of party they need to be not simply hope that “not being Corbyn” and Johnson messing it up will get them home.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
You need a touch more imagination and bandwidth then.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
A Tory party no longer able to wave the Union Jack because it has overseen the end of the UK may find that taking English voters for granted is not the wisest strategy.
Far from it, it would then become the English Nationalist Party, as dominant in England as the SNP are in Scotland
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
This was the one that Boris f**ked up right at the beginning, with that rambling incoherent television address so memorably lampooned by Matt Lucas, which included announcing the supposedly clear new five-stage national alert system, and then saying we were currently at level three-and-a-half.
It never got off the runway.
The new system is: watch what Scotland is doing; wait a week during which ministers can build the suspense by denying or trashing the Scottish approach; do the same.
Yes, Johnson copies Sturgeons homework then hands it in late.
The SNP would not be anywhere near as popular without the Tories as a foil. It has been the cover for a lot of other failures.
It is Johnson's malevolent incompetence, as outlined in the header, that will end the United Kingdom.
The end of Transition is set to be a trainwreck too. What else can we expect?
Yesterday’s Briefing Room on R4 is well worth a listen. It included the suggestion that a thin last minute deal might be accompanied by an “implementation period” - during which everything would stay the same as currently. As a way to extend without actually extending.
He’ll be out of the door as quickly as Theresa May was, if he tries that one.
But who would they replace him with?
Rishi (= Disraeli)?????? Traditionally the Tories love a winner. And that goes above anything else.
Looks like Rishi plans to copy Corbyns 2019 manifesto on tax. The cycle of copying Labours manifesto is accelerating.
If they ramp up IHT or lower the thresholds then I'll be surprised - in a good way. But I doubt that they will. Going after estates enrages both stickbangers and their heirs in a way almost nothing else will, and is political nuclear death (as Theresa May discovered with the dementia tax.)
The Government won't want to go after income tax, NI and VAT - too controversial, too obvious - with the caveat that they might scrap the preferential NI rate currently enjoyed by the self-employed, which is something that Sunak has hinted at in the past. They daren't touch the stickbangers, of course, so we are stuck with the wretched triple lock for the foreseeable. Hiking corporation tax at the same time as trying to get us through Brexit might be considered brave, in the Sir Humphrey sense.
Thus, the most obvious targets are tax reliefs enjoyed by the working age population. The prime candidate is a big Brown-style raid on pensions, this time normalising reliefs at the basic rate for all contributions. The FT was suggesting earlier in the year that CGT might be rounded up to a flat rate of 28% for all assets, and my husband was also speculating just yesterday that the annual contribution limit for ISAs might be cut in half.
Of course, the most radical measure would be to go all out with a wealth tax and pocket a one-off levy on all assets - savings, pensions, shares, property, the lot - which could potentially recoup the cost of all the extra borrowing taken out during the Plague. But I think it really would take a Corbyn Government to dare to try something like that!
The Sunday Times is reporting this differently - with all pensions relief given at 30% thus higher than the basic rate but lower than the higher rate thus avoiding the obvious headlines of either.
I think something like that is likely.
Some interesting ideas.
But they need to stop ignoring the elephant in the room, which is the £25bn+ spent on the main residence relief CGT loophole.
That is worth more than all the rest put together.
Careful Matt, I brought this up a few weeks ago and got absolutely minced.
CGT on primary residence would end Sunak's chances of being elected Tory leader within about five seconds.
Also replying to @contrarian who basically posted the same.
You are probably right.
Can anyone remember the impact of removing Mortgage Tax Relief which I would have thought even more dramatic.
Lawson salami sliced it and at a time of rapidly rising house prices (which the government was seeking to cool) it had minimal impact.
He preannounced it which accelerated the boom and then caused a subsequent bust.
That makes no sense. Its not as if MIRAS was locked in for those who bought before a particular date. It was removed for everyone from a date. Pre-announcing it meant people could work out what their mortgage would be when it was gone and whether they could afford the house. This caused a modest dampening to the market not a boom or a subsequent bust.
According to Wikipedia when the multiple mortgage tax relief withdrawal was announced it caused a sharp increase in house prices to beat the deadline. Lawson subsequently stated he regretted not making it effective from budget day.
It caused a significant increase in house prices over those few months, at the same time as the economy was going into decline. House prices in the south east and especially Greater London were already somewhat overpriced. The combination of these three things lead to a house price crash that spread mich further than the SE. The housing problem persisted some years and the words negative equity became a common.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
Get a grip. These people should not be going to oppose them, full stop. It will escalate things. People will die.
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
Unless they win a landslide without winning back significant seats in Scotland Labour will always need SNP support to get into power now, that then risks creating a backlash in England while having the threat that independence could lead to them losing power again soon after
England doesn’t give a f*ck about Scotland. You’re out of touch.
Very sorry to hear that. I certainly care about England and the United Kingdom.
But not enough to have opposed Brexit.
I think and thought that Brexit was in the long term interests of the United Kingdom. To have had the minority view given more weight because it was more prevalent in Scotland would not have helped the Union, quite the reverse.
Well it objectively has not helped the Union. At least not yet.
I am just waiting for the United Ireland to happen now that Boris has erected a border between N Ireland and Great Britain. It is clear that the Tories want N Ireland gone and it costs them nothing in electoral terms....
Hmmm. In Antrim and along the Crumlin Road last week, I saw the Union and St George flags were flying in very big numbers. Still, if Scotland were to drop out, the game could change.
If you have gone to one or two other spots, you would have seen large numbers of nationalist emblems too.
Besides, you are looking at this from the wrong end of the stick. NI may not want to go, but it has been made quite clear that from the GB side, NI is seen as an impediment to Brexit and Westmister's life would be a lot easier if it can jettison NI.
Although I am a regular traveller to NI I will bow to your greater knowledge.
The economies of the North and South will be more difficult to unwind than Johnson has ever considered. Other than the ten minute ride from George Best to Stormont has Johnson ever been to NI?
There is of course much truth in the article. But Mr Meeks shies away from confronting a central issue. Voting intention is a relative not an absolute issue. There may be a few million voters in the centre (left and right) who would dearly love to express an intention to vote for centrist competence of any sort but do not know where it might come from.
Mr Meeks asks the right questions of the Tories and finds them wanting. But where is the evidence that voting somewhere else will produce a better outcome?
Labour have to prove a point on both policy and competence. An article showing what it is they believe about the critical issues of the day, how it can be implemented, and who is on the front bench with the capacity to deliver it would be illuminating. Can PBs Labour supporters provide one?
They can start with labour policy on Brexit, the pandemic, education, deficit, debt, Scotland and Ireland and then move on to the tough ones.
Why? Labour can sit back and let Johnson do all their heavy lifting. To avoid a hostage to fortune problem down the line, policy need not be set out until much closer to 2024.
Exactly. No policies whatsoever are needed yet. Just a narrative that Johnson and his government are uncaring and incompetent.
I disagree. They need to decide what sort of party they need to be not simply hope that “not being Corbyn” and Johnson messing it up will get them home.
Yes but you don't need a detailed policy platform until closer to an election.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
Get a grip. These people should not be going to oppose them, full stop. It will escalate things. People will die.
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
It's the job of the police to stop these riots, they have been told to stand down by Democrat politicians in Democrat run cities.
When rioters have actually been arrested then they've been more often than not allowed to go free without charge to continue their criminal behaviour.
Should ordinary people just sit on their hands and watch their cities burn?
This was the one that Boris f**ked up right at the beginning, with that rambling incoherent television address so memorably lampooned by Matt Lucas, which included announcing the supposedly clear new five-stage national alert system, and then saying we were currently at level three-and-a-half.
It never got off the runway.
The new system is: watch what Scotland is doing; wait a week during which ministers can build the suspense by denying or trashing the Scottish approach; do the same.
Yes, Johnson copies Sturgeons homework then hands it in late.
The SNP would not be anywhere near as popular without the Tories as a foil. It has been the cover for a lot of other failures.
It is Johnson's malevolent incompetence, as outlined in the header, that will end the United Kingdom.
The end of Transition is set to be a trainwreck too. What else can we expect?
Yesterday’s Briefing Room on R4 is well worth a listen. It included the suggestion that a thin last minute deal might be accompanied by an “implementation period” - during which everything would stay the same as currently. As a way to extend without actually extending.
He’ll be out of the door as quickly as Theresa May was, if he tries that one.
But who would they replace him with?
Rishi (= Disraeli)?????? Traditionally the Tories love a winner. And that goes above anything else.
Looks like Rishi plans to copy Corbyns 2019 manifesto on tax. The cycle of copying Labours manifesto is accelerating.
If they ramp up IHT or lower the thresholds then I'll be surprised - in a good way. But I doubt that they will. Going after estates enrages both stickbangers and their heirs in a way almost nothing else will, and is political nuclear death (as Theresa May discovered with the dementia tax.)
The Government won't want to go after income tax, NI and VAT - too controversial, too obvious - with the caveat that they might scrap the preferential NI rate currently enjoyed by the self-employed, which is something that Sunak has hinted at in the past. They daren't touch the stickbangers, of course, so we are stuck with the wretched triple lock for the foreseeable. Hiking corporation tax at the same time as trying to get us through Brexit might be considered brave, in the Sir Humphrey sense.
Thus, the most obvious targets are tax reliefs enjoyed by the working age population. The prime candidate is a big Brown-style raid on pensions, this time normalising reliefs at the basic rate for all contributions. The FT was suggesting earlier in the year that CGT might be rounded up to a flat rate of 28% for all assets, and my husband was also speculating just yesterday that the annual contribution limit for ISAs might be cut in half.
Of course, the most radical measure would be to go all out with a wealth tax and pocket a one-off levy on all assets - savings, pensions, shares, property, the lot - which could potentially recoup the cost of all the extra borrowing taken out during the Plague. But I think it really would take a Corbyn Government to dare to try something like that!
The Sunday Times is reporting this differently - with all pensions relief given at 30% thus higher than the basic rate but lower than the higher rate thus avoiding the obvious headlines of either.
I think something like that is likely.
Some interesting ideas.
But they need to stop ignoring the elephant in the room, which is the £25bn+ spent on the main residence relief CGT loophole.
That is worth more than all the rest put together.
Careful Matt, I brought this up a few weeks ago and got absolutely minced.
CGT on primary residence would end Sunak's chances of being elected Tory leader within about five seconds.
Also replying to @contrarian who basically posted the same.
You are probably right.
Can anyone remember the impact of removing Mortgage Tax Relief which I would have thought even more dramatic.
Lawson salami sliced it and at a time of rapidly rising house prices (which the government was seeking to cool) it had minimal impact.
He preannounced it which accelerated the boom and then caused a subsequent bust.
That makes no sense. Its not as if MIRAS was locked in for those who bought before a particular date. It was removed for everyone from a date. Pre-announcing it meant people could work out what their mortgage would be when it was gone and whether they could afford the house. This caused a modest dampening to the market not a boom or a subsequent bust.
According to Wikipedia when the multiple mortgage tax relief withdrawal was announced it caused a sharp increase in house prices to beat the deadline. Lawson subsequently stated he regretted not making it effective from budget day.
It caused a significant increase in house prices over those few months, at the same time as the economy was going into decline. House prices in the south east and especially Greater London were already somewhat overpriced. The combination of these three things lead to a house price crash that spread mich further than the SE. The housing problem persisted some years and the words negative equity became a common.
It is shocking that I have so little memory of this. I was on my 2nd house by then and I was single. I do remember thinking that the double taxation relief was unfair. It didn't impact my first mortgage but did my second (again I don't remember it I just know what my mortgage was), which was probably why I thought it unfair and wasn't concerned about its abolition. I also remember that my house increased in value by 50% but when I sold I took a 15% loss so again fitting in with that timing.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
A message that seeks to unify and calm rather than divide and stir. Tough on disorder AND the causes of it. No provocative rhetoric or imaging about "patriots" opposing "chaos" in a transparent effort to position as Strongman.
It's not hard. And it's what one has a right to expect from the president.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
Get a grip. These people should not be going to oppose them, full stop. It will escalate things. People will die.
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
It's the job of the police to stop these riots, they have been told to stand down by Democrat politicians in Democrat run cities.
When rioters have actually been arrested then they've been more often than not allowed to go free without charge to continue their criminal behaviour.
Should ordinary people just sit on their hands and watch their cities burn?
You don't actually know what the police are doing do you? You have just seen some video. Have you thought that they may be are trying to not escalate things.
For sure the one thing that will escalate stuff is people coming into town from outside with provocative flags and emblems and weapons.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
A message that seeks to unify and calm rather than divide and stir. Tough on disorder AND the causes of it. No provocative rhetoric or imaging about "patriots" opposing "chaos" in a transparent effort to position as Strongman.
It's not hard. And it's what one has a right to expect from the president.
You seriously think that the riots would stop after some calming words from Trump? It's completely delusional.
On the other hand if he said nothing about it then he'd be "hiding in the white house" or some other nonsense.
It baffles me how people are more outraged about Trump pointing out the violence and chaos that's happening than the actual chaos itself.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
Get a grip. These people should not be going to oppose them, full stop. It will escalate things. People will die.
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
It's the job of the police to stop these riots, they have been told to stand down by Democrat politicians in Democrat run cities.
When rioters have actually been arrested then they've been more often than not allowed to go free without charge to continue their criminal behaviour.
Should ordinary people just sit on their hands and watch their cities burn?
You don't actually know what the police are doing do you? You have just seen some video. Have you thought that they may be are trying to not escalate things.
For sure the one thing that will escalate stuff is people coming into town from outside with provocative flags and emblems and weapons.
Trying not to escalate things? Are you serious? The cities have been seeing riots, looting and arson for months.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
A message that seeks to unify and calm rather than divide and stir. Tough on disorder AND the causes of it. No provocative rhetoric or imaging about "patriots" opposing "chaos" in a transparent effort to position as Strongman.
It's not hard. And it's what one has a right to expect from the president.
You seriously think that the riots would stop after some calming words from Trump? It's completely delusional.
On the other hand if he said nothing about it then he'd be "hiding in the white house" or some other nonsense.
It baffles me how people are more outraged about Trump pointing out the violence and chaos that's happening than the actual chaos itself.
At the time of the earlier BLM marches/riots there were a number of very brave police leaders who calmed things down, working with the demonstrators. Some of it quite tense. You need to split off the majority of the peaceful but angry demonstrators from those there just to exploit events. It needs people to be calm, and to bend over backwards and to not react. The president is a key part of that. He has to say the right things. He could offer to meet up with a delegation of them and listen to their concerns. Calm, calm calm.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
Get a grip. These people should not be going to oppose them, full stop. It will escalate things. People will die.
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
It's the job of the police to stop these riots, they have been told to stand down by Democrat politicians in Democrat run cities.
When rioters have actually been arrested then they've been more often than not allowed to go free without charge to continue their criminal behaviour.
Should ordinary people just sit on their hands and watch their cities burn?
You don't actually know what the police are doing do you? You have just seen some video. Have you thought that they may be are trying to not escalate things.
For sure the one thing that will escalate stuff is people coming into town from outside with provocative flags and emblems and weapons.
Trying not to escalate things? Are you serious? The cities have been seeing riots, looting and arson for months.
So you think that line of 4x4s with those flags flying is not escalation do you?
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
A message that seeks to unify and calm rather than divide and stir. Tough on disorder AND the causes of it. No provocative rhetoric or imaging about "patriots" opposing "chaos" in a transparent effort to position as Strongman.
It's not hard. And it's what one has a right to expect from the president.
You seriously think that the riots would stop after some calming words from Trump? It's completely delusional.
On the other hand if he said nothing about it then he'd be "hiding in the white house" or some other nonsense.
It baffles me how people are more outraged about Trump pointing out the violence and chaos that's happening than the actual chaos itself.
He should be addressing the disorder and the causes of it and doing so in a way that cools things down and brings people together.
It's his duty as the president to do this.
If you can't see that he is not only failing in this duty but not even trying - instead seeking to divide and inflame for perceived political advantage - then I cannot help you.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
A message that seeks to unify and calm rather than divide and stir. Tough on disorder AND the causes of it. No provocative rhetoric or imaging about "patriots" opposing "chaos" in a transparent effort to position as Strongman.
It's not hard. And it's what one has a right to expect from the president.
You seriously think that the riots would stop after some calming words from Trump? It's completely delusional.
On the other hand if he said nothing about it then he'd be "hiding in the white house" or some other nonsense.
It baffles me how people are more outraged about Trump pointing out the violence and chaos that's happening than the actual chaos itself.
At the time of the earlier BLM marches/riots there were a number of very brave police leaders who calmed things down, working with the demonstrators. Some of it quite tense. You need to split off the majority of the peaceful but angry demonstrators from those there just to exploit events. It needs people to be calm, and to bend over backwards and to not react. The president is a key part of that. He has to say the right things. He could offer to meet up with a delegation of them and listen to their concerns. Calm, calm calm.
Not confrontation.
If the police leaders managed to calm things down months ago then how are the riots still going on now? It sounds like that method has completely failed.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
A message that seeks to unify and calm rather than divide and stir. Tough on disorder AND the causes of it. No provocative rhetoric or imaging about "patriots" opposing "chaos" in a transparent effort to position as Strongman.
It's not hard. And it's what one has a right to expect from the president.
You seriously think that the riots would stop after some calming words from Trump? It's completely delusional.
On the other hand if he said nothing about it then he'd be "hiding in the white house" or some other nonsense.
It baffles me how people are more outraged about Trump pointing out the violence and chaos that's happening than the actual chaos itself.
At the time of the earlier BLM marches/riots there were a number of very brave police leaders who calmed things down, working with the demonstrators. Some of it quite tense. You need to split off the majority of the peaceful but angry demonstrators from those there just to exploit events. It needs people to be calm, and to bend over backwards and to not react. The president is a key part of that. He has to say the right things. He could offer to meet up with a delegation of them and listen to their concerns. Calm, calm calm.
Not confrontation.
If the police leaders managed to calm things down months ago then how are the riots still going on now? It sounds like that method has completely failed.
Oh for goodness sake I said at the time of the earlier BLM marches/riots not this specific incident.
You seem to be an expert on what is happening from your armchair but don't have any memory of the various sheriffs, policemen and National Guards who defused events.
Of course these things will blow again and again until the issues are solved and in particular if you have a president who stirs it up and incidents like we saw on TV of a man being shot 7 times in the back.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
Get a grip. These people should not be going to oppose them, full stop. It will escalate things. People will die.
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
It's the job of the police to stop these riots, they have been told to stand down by Democrat politicians in Democrat run cities.
When rioters have actually been arrested then they've been more often than not allowed to go free without charge to continue their criminal behaviour.
Should ordinary people just sit on their hands and watch their cities burn?
You don't actually know what the police are doing do you? You have just seen some video. Have you thought that they may be are trying to not escalate things.
For sure the one thing that will escalate stuff is people coming into town from outside with provocative flags and emblems and weapons.
Trying not to escalate things? Are you serious? The cities have been seeing riots, looting and arson for months.
So you think that line of 4x4s with those flags flying is not escalation do you?
Well if you call taking action to stop rioting and looting "escalating" then I can't really argue with you.
It's like saying that the police are escalating the situation whenever they chase and arrest a criminal.
What is your problem with flying a national flag by the way?
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
A message that seeks to unify and calm rather than divide and stir. Tough on disorder AND the causes of it. No provocative rhetoric or imaging about "patriots" opposing "chaos" in a transparent effort to position as Strongman.
It's not hard. And it's what one has a right to expect from the president.
You seriously think that the riots would stop after some calming words from Trump? It's completely delusional.
On the other hand if he said nothing about it then he'd be "hiding in the white house" or some other nonsense.
It baffles me how people are more outraged about Trump pointing out the violence and chaos that's happening than the actual chaos itself.
At the time of the earlier BLM marches/riots there were a number of very brave police leaders who calmed things down, working with the demonstrators. Some of it quite tense. You need to split off the majority of the peaceful but angry demonstrators from those there just to exploit events. It needs people to be calm, and to bend over backwards and to not react. The president is a key part of that. He has to say the right things. He could offer to meet up with a delegation of them and listen to their concerns. Calm, calm calm.
Not confrontation.
If the police leaders managed to calm things down months ago then how are the riots still going on now? It sounds like that method has completely failed.
Oh for goodness sake I said at the time of the earlier BLM marches/riots not this specific incident.
You seem to be an expert on what is happening from your armchair but don't have any memory of the various sheriffs, policemen and National Guards who defused events.
Of course these things will blow again and again until the issues are solved and in particular if you have a president who stirs it up and incidents like we saw on TV of a man being shot 7 times in the back.
Eh? The BLM marches and riots have been going on non-stop between now and then.
These riots are backed and organised by Democrat supporters, trying to blame Trump for it all just won't wash.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
Get a grip. These people should not be going to oppose them, full stop. It will escalate things. People will die.
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
It's the job of the police to stop these riots, they have been told to stand down by Democrat politicians in Democrat run cities.
When rioters have actually been arrested then they've been more often than not allowed to go free without charge to continue their criminal behaviour.
Should ordinary people just sit on their hands and watch their cities burn?
You don't actually know what the police are doing do you? You have just seen some video. Have you thought that they may be are trying to not escalate things.
For sure the one thing that will escalate stuff is people coming into town from outside with provocative flags and emblems and weapons.
Trying not to escalate things? Are you serious? The cities have been seeing riots, looting and arson for months.
So you think that line of 4x4s with those flags flying is not escalation do you?
Well if you call taking action to stop rioting and looting "escalating" then I can't really argue with you.
It's like saying that the police are escalating the situation whenever they chase and arrest a criminal.
What is your problem with flying a national flag by the way?
You are completely irrational:
Where did I say I had a problem flying a national flag? I don't, but what is the point of winding up rioters?
Of course it is not the same as chasing and arresting a criminal. It really couldn't be more different.
I tell you what next time there are Fascist and Socialist Workers marching in London is your solution to just let them get on with it? Maybe the police should dole out a few extra Union Jack to the Fascist because that won't do any harm whatsoever. I can't think what but maybe the police could give something to the other side that winds up the Fascist as well.
Clearly none of that in your world will do any harm whatsoever.
The appropriation and elevation of "patriotism" and "patriots" to mean the support of the indigenous, salt of the earth citizens for the Strongman defender of the "real" country and its people - "our" country - our "great" nation and its traditions - against a dangerous and traitorous enemy within who look different to "us" and don't share "our" values.
A classic technique.
So the gangs that have been rioting and looting for months are the good guys and anyone opposing them are the bad guys.
Ok then.
Was merely pointing out the fascist vibe. It's worrying for the sort of people who dislike fascism or any vestige thereof.
And the masked thugs that have been attacking anyone they disagree with for months aren't giving off that vibe?
I'm talking about President Trump.
I'm not sure how anyone can oppose these riots without being called fascist. Best let the cities burn to the ground I guess.
Of course you can oppose the riots without being a fascist. I imagine most people do. A good start however would be not to drive your 4x4 to the riot with a massive national flag on it, leave your semi automatic at home (and ideally stay there with it) and wear a more subtle T shirt. I think they are all sensible tips.
Lol so we're back to the initial riots trashing city centres is ok, but opposing them must only be done whilst wringing your hands and staring at the floor or it will be fascist.
I don't think I actually said that did I? You're making stuff up.
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
What vehicle should those opposing these riots be allowed to drive in your opinion?
Get a grip. These people should not be going to oppose them, full stop. It will escalate things. People will die.
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
It's the job of the police to stop these riots, they have been told to stand down by Democrat politicians in Democrat run cities.
When rioters have actually been arrested then they've been more often than not allowed to go free without charge to continue their criminal behaviour.
Should ordinary people just sit on their hands and watch their cities burn?
You don't actually know what the police are doing do you? You have just seen some video. Have you thought that they may be are trying to not escalate things.
For sure the one thing that will escalate stuff is people coming into town from outside with provocative flags and emblems and weapons.
Trying not to escalate things? Are you serious? The cities have been seeing riots, looting and arson for months.
So you think that line of 4x4s with those flags flying is not escalation do you?
Well if you call taking action to stop rioting and looting "escalating" then I can't really argue with you.
It's like saying that the police are escalating the situation whenever they chase and arrest a criminal.
What is your problem with flying a national flag by the way?
You are completely irrational:
Where did I say I had a problem flying a national flag? I don't, but what is the point of winding up rioters?
Of course it is not the same as chasing and arresting a criminal. It really couldn't be more different.
I tell you what next time there are Fascist and Socialist Workers marching in London is your solution to just let them get on with it? Maybe the police should dole out a few extra Union Jack to the Fascist because that won't do any harm whatsoever. I can't think what but maybe the police could give something to the other side that winds up the Fascist as well.
Clearly none of that in your world will do any harm whatsoever.
My solution was for the police to go in a put a stop to the riots, which you seemed to oppose. Since they have completely failed to do so then it is now up to ordinary people to do it instead. Evil flourishes when good men do nothing etc.
I'm not sure what fascist and socialist workers have to do with anything, since none of these are involved in the current riots.
@DAlexander I'm stopping now. You are obviously a troll.
You implied taking action to stop looting by the people coming in these cars was de-escalation. Do you not get that they will end up shooting people, or getting shot themselves and potentially the next level is an all out battle with the police having 2 lots of people to control.
@DAlexander I'm stopping now. You are obviously a troll.
You implied taking action to stop looting by the people coming in these cars was de-escalation. Do you not get that they will end up shooting people, or getting shot themselves and potentially the next level is an all out battle with the police having 2 lots of people to control.
I never said it was de-escalation, I said it was necessary to stop the rioting and looting because otherwise it will continue indefinitely, which since it has gone on for several months so far seems pretty obvious.
Politics in Britain has always been largely tribal, certainly at UK general rather than European or local or Scottish elections, indeed even in 1997 the Tories retained 3/4 of their 1992 voters and even in 2010 Labour retained 80% of its 2005 voters so there is nothing really new there.
On the morning after an Opinium poll which had the Tories down 4% on GE19 and Labour up 8% it also seems rather dated already anyway
I still believe for the next six months or so the Tories will generally hold a circa 5 point lead. Johnson is on the TV news every night and the post pandemic fiscal issues are only biting at the fringes.
If Labour aren't sizeably ahead by this time next year, they might as well give up.
With Opinium today showing Labour tied with the Tories Starmer would become PM with SNP and LD support, he does not need to be ahead to get to No10, just to get a majority, in which case he needs to start a revival of Scottish Labour
With the new boundary changes Labour are further handicapped. If they need the SNP to form a government, they should pass. Scottish Independence hands England and Wales to the Tories forever.
The latest poll has Tories and SCons on 40% each, that's with the SNP on 5%.
Thwarting the Nats has been a consistent Lab policy for pretty much all of the 21stC, doesn't seem to have done much for them in Scotland thus far.
All I was suggesting was Labour have lost Scotland, in or out of the Union. With Scotland out of the Union they have lost England and Wales too.
If Starmer were to attempt to form a government on the proviso that there would be SIndyref2 he would ensure permanent Conservative governments south of the border. That would make him appear even more stupid than he looks.
No he would not. Yes England has a Tory majority at present, and for the foreseeable future, but English (and Welsh) politics would realign eventually.
There would not be a “permanent Conservative government”. Either the Labour Party would have to position itself further to the right, or the Lib Dems or another party would hive off more “centrist” Tory voters.
People would get sick of the government eventually.
Of course Blairite governments would still be possible in England but without Scotland and certainly without Wales as well Old Labour would effectively be dead as a force for power in England, New Labour allied to the Lib Dems would be the only way to keep out the Tories
Not necessarily. We don’t know what factors will become important in English (and Welsh) politics in a hypothetical future.
Yes necessarily, even Michael Howard won most votes in England in 2005 and Harold Wilson would have lost most of his elections in England alone, the Tories have a majority now of over 150 in England
A Tory party no longer able to wave the Union Jack because it has overseen the end of the UK may find that taking English voters for granted is not the wisest strategy.
But HYUFD has been writing for weeks that he and Johnson can stick the end of the Union on Labour in the event of a hung parliament. The history books have Johnson off the hook, scot-free. No pun intended!
If fascism is the politics of despair then balkanisation is the inevitable consequence of a psychologically scarred electorate. The Union is doomed because the Tory alienation during the 80's was horrific, similar to wales but SNP are a far more effective party than Plaid. Coupled with most of Scotland being remainers you can see why they feel so far removed.
The end of the Union would be the worst case scenario for everyone an it is totally unnecessary but sadly ever more likely. Labour took the hit during SINDY by being the only people trying to save the union.
Yes teaming up and being the Tories little helpers did them a real lot of good.
But the whole point is that they didn't. The Tories and Labour are both Unionist parties, it isn't a rude word. Labour had to be the ones to campaign because the Tories are so toxic. The Uk media love to blow smoke up Sturgeon to highlight the obvious frailties in English politicians. The reality is the SNP are absolutely dreadful and many scottish communities have given themselves away as greedy fantasists, similar to the nice folk in Cornwall who make Billions from overpriced tourism and then thought during COVID they could tell people who owned property there they were not allowed to live there even if they had followed lockdown rules. These places will find they have rapidly run out of friends when the phantom recession starts really feeding. And it will all be the fault of middle class English men (yawn)
you are obviously ignorant of Scotland , just anothre arsy unionist on here who imagines they pay for Scotland. Let me burst your bubble, we don't need arsehole friends like you ripping us off and telling us we are stupid.
Mr Meeks raises an interesting question - why isn't the government doing worse in the polls. But the more I think about it, the more the weakness of the Opposition is the most important factor. Starmer is more appealing personally than Corbyn, but he has failed to oppose most of the decisions the government has made during the pandemic, has flip-flopped throughout, and has a pitifully weak team. He is also tainted by his seat at Corbyn's table and his failed attempted fudge over Brexit at the last election. It was a transparent attempt to straddle two stools, but ended up falling between them. And, finally, he is appealing to middle-class professionals, but has virtually nothing to say to the North or Scotland.
OK, maybe he'll surprise me once he's got the Labour Party under control by emerging as a decisive Blair-like political genius, but I have to say the omens so far aren't very good.
(We can all come up with excuses for why the Labour Party hasn't made hay, like the difficulty of getting media coverage during a pandemic, or the need to deal with the Corbynites in the Party, or whatever, but making excuses can become a way of life).
A lot of party members are quietly dissatisfied - a recent Labour List poll (of self-selected readers, but they get a broad readership) showed a slim majority felt that way. For better or worse, though, he's playing the long game. Stage 1 is to establish himself and his team as sensible people - a work in progress, but it's getting there. Stage 2 will be to handle the ECHR report when it comes out next month. I don't expect it to attack individuals, but to be scathing about the party's handling of the issue:- a lot of people will judge him by how he responds. Nobody in the party wants a mass purge but swift acceptance and implementation of the findings without quibbles will be important.
I think those had to happen first before he offered a single piece of new policy. Stage 3 is the virtual party conference, which I suspect will focus on the virus and Brexit with the general theme of "enough incompetence", but should also produce some hints of policy direction. After that - well, there's over 3 years to develop polcy, and anything right now may look very dated in the world of 2024. I'd like to see some clear direction, but I'm prepared to wait a bit.
The Tory position is being artificially inflated by about 15% of die-hard UKIP / Brexiter votes, which Cameron didn't enjoy the benefit of for most of his period. Some of either these or the more commercially-minded Tories will give way after the Brexit date, depending on the deal ; so I think it will then become clear he's doing better than Miliband for most of 2010-15, Brown for most of his period, and Corbyn in his declining period.
Too much is made of that. I suspect that for most people Brexit has already faded to become a pretty peripheral issue regardless of what the commentariat might like to think. Most people have 'moved on'.
I do not seek to excuse Ministers at all in my post. The fact that Williamson was too stupid to immediately see that the algorithm proposed was idiotic and unfair with politically damaging consequences means that he is not fit for office. Obviously. But he didn't come up with that as the preferred option, he simply followed stupid advice because he is incapable of critical thought. As are his officials, apparently.
The art of being a good politician as far as dealing with your officials is concerned is mostly about asking the right questions. Williamson asked for an algorithm that only had one job, and in that it succeeded.
Exactly. I completely agree. The man is an idiot and should not be in charge of anything. Had he been capable of thought he would have seen the consequences. As would his officials. They didn't, not even after the Scottish debacle.
But you don't know this. Civil servants/officials have a vow of silence - they cannot defend themselves. They may well have been warning ministers that the algorithm was a recipe for disaster. We will never know, and that's one of the problems with the attack on the civil service. They can't answer back.
Re your last sentence, I wonder how long this convention will last.
The civil service has been preemptively leaking for 5+ years.
Comments
I'm still not entirely sure whether Starmer gives a toss about the Union but just feels he needs to make appropriate noises. Pragmatically if I were him I'd plan as if Scotland were lost and concentrate on making Labour palatable to England. Probably won't make for very attractive politics, but we are where we are..
Mr Meeks asks the right questions of the Tories and finds them wanting. But where is the evidence that voting somewhere else will produce a better outcome?
Labour have to prove a point on both policy and competence. An article showing what it is they believe about the critical issues of the day, how it can be implemented, and who is on the front bench with the capacity to deliver it would be illuminating. Can PBs Labour supporters provide one?
They can start with labour policy on Brexit, the pandemic, education, deficit, debt, Scotland and Ireland and then move on to the tough ones.
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1300054037690187777?s=19
He's getting into quite a tiff with his auditors (and other people in his company) who have going concern issues in the event of a no deal Brexit.
- Upsizing: a chunk of your equity gets paid out in tax at the point you are buying. Makes it much harder to upsize
- Downsizing: motivation for releasing capital is lower
The best way is to allow a rollover relief; ie if you reinvest your proceeds into another principal residence in 6-9 months then you get to avoid the CGT charge.
The end of the Union would be the worst case scenario for everyone an it is totally unnecessary but sadly ever more likely. Labour took the hit during SINDY by being the only people trying to save the union.
PS: Not the worst case scenario by far for the many of us who want independencer.
https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1299935111891374080
EDIT: Nichomar snap!
“The buck stops here” which is what Ministerial responsibility means is not an absurd fiction. It is the very essence of leadership.
It is, to give another real world example, what lies behind the FCA’s Senior Manager Regime: to ensure that people at the top understand that they cannot take only the benefits of jobs without also taking the responsibilities.
If Ministers only last a few months in their jobs or move round too frequently, that’s not a reason to ditch the concept. That’s poor management by the PM. If people can’t master their brief they’re not up to it & shouldn’t be in the job. If Ministers can’t ask intelligent probing questions, ditto.
The education algorithm was daft for two reasons:-
1.The wrong question was asked: how to give a grade for an exam not taken. When the question should have been: how do we deal with the consequences of there being no exams ie how can pupils, schools, firms, universities etc make the decisions needed for the next stage? The answers might have been different for different groups eg universities could have simply relied on their own offers, as some did. Or there could have been delayed entry following delayed exams. Or a combination of things. They had months to think about it. Instead of which it was all about producing a grade for something which didn’t happen to prevent grade inflation, a priority imposed by the regulator at the behest of Ministers, allegedly.
2. An algorithm is utterly useless to determine an individual result for 2 years of school work. An exam may be an equally useless way of doing it - but it was one Michael Gove and his advisor, Cummings, with his love for data & algorithms - who removed any other data - like coursework - which might have made the problem easier to solve. This seems to have been forgotten. Then the government has the nerve to blame others for a mutant algorithm when at its heart is an advisor who thinks algorithms should replace civil servants.
Civil servants may well have been incompetent.If so, they should be disciplined. But aren’t they entitled to examination of the facts, due process,
I don’t think a Minister should resign just because a junior clerk somewhere makes a mistake in a big department. But this is not that type of issue. They had one job to do for the end of the school year. This was it. They messed it up. Like all incompetent bullies they sought to find someone to blame first to protect themselves.
If we move to a system like the one you describe, where civil servants can talk publicly about what goes on with Ministers, great. But will Ministers will really like it? A lot of them will find their carefully polished images don’t last 5 minutes when exposed to the truth by those who work for them. Civil servants not answering back protects Ministers too. They should be careful what they wish for.
He has just tweeted.
Has there been a more impressive purveyor of stripped down prose since Ernest Hemingway?
Honestly people on here are completely brainwashed.
NEW THREAD
Besides, you are looking at this from the wrong end of the stick. NI may not want to go, but it has been made quite clear that from the GB side, NI is seen as an impediment to Brexit and Westmister's life would be a lot easier if it can jettison NI.
The Uk media love to blow smoke up Sturgeon to highlight the obvious frailties in English politicians. The reality is the SNP are absolutely dreadful and many scottish communities have given themselves away as greedy fantasists, similar to the nice folk in Cornwall who make Billions from overpriced tourism and then thought during COVID they could tell people who owned property there they were not allowed to live there even if they had followed lockdown rules.
These places will find they have rapidly run out of friends when the phantom recession starts really feeding.
And it will all be the fault of middle class English men (yawn)
What I did say was don't send in 4x4s full of red necks. Slightly different wouldn't you agree?
I am no expert in resolving riots, but this is no way to stop them. They are vigilantes. Do you actually want a civil war?
The economies of the North and South will be more difficult to unwind than Johnson has ever considered. Other than the ten minute ride from George Best to Stormont has Johnson ever been to NI?
When rioters have actually been arrested then they've been more often than not allowed to go free without charge to continue their criminal behaviour.
Should ordinary people just sit on their hands and watch their cities burn?
It's not hard. And it's what one has a right to expect from the president.
For sure the one thing that will escalate stuff is people coming into town from outside with provocative flags and emblems and weapons.
On the other hand if he said nothing about it then he'd be "hiding in the white house" or some other nonsense.
It baffles me how people are more outraged about Trump pointing out the violence and chaos that's happening than the actual chaos itself.
Not confrontation.
It's his duty as the president to do this.
If you can't see that he is not only failing in this duty but not even trying - instead seeking to divide and inflame for perceived political advantage - then I cannot help you.
You seem to be an expert on what is happening from your armchair but don't have any memory of the various sheriffs, policemen and National Guards who defused events.
Of course these things will blow again and again until the issues are solved and in particular if you have a president who stirs it up and incidents like we saw on TV of a man being shot 7 times in the back.
It's like saying that the police are escalating the situation whenever they chase and arrest a criminal.
What is your problem with flying a national flag by the way?
These riots are backed and organised by Democrat supporters, trying to blame Trump for it all just won't wash.
Where did I say I had a problem flying a national flag? I don't, but what is the point of winding up rioters?
Of course it is not the same as chasing and arresting a criminal. It really couldn't be more different.
I tell you what next time there are Fascist and Socialist Workers marching in London is your solution to just let them get on with it? Maybe the police should dole out a few extra Union Jack to the Fascist because that won't do any harm whatsoever. I can't think what but maybe the police could give something to the other side that winds up the Fascist as well.
Clearly none of that in your world will do any harm whatsoever.
I'm not sure what fascist and socialist workers have to do with anything, since none of these are involved in the current riots.
You implied taking action to stop looting by the people coming in these cars was de-escalation. Do you not get that they will end up shooting people, or getting shot themselves and potentially the next level is an all out battle with the police having 2 lots of people to control.