First.... got no idea who will "win" this round of votes but we all know everyone will claim a win.....any idea if Farage's latest incarnation will stand....?
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
With the fallout from the virus, from Brexit, and with some unpopular proposals floating around such as the virtual abolition of planning controls, I wouldn’t fancy being a defending Tory councillor next May.
CNN: One superspreading event may be connected to about 20,000 Covid-19 cases in the Boston area, a researcher said on Tuesday.
That event, a biotech conference attended by 200 people in late February, is now well known as a source of Covid-19 spread very early on in the pandemic.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
CNN: One superspreading event may be connected to about 20,000 Covid-19 cases in the Boston area, a researcher said on Tuesday.
That event, a biotech conference attended by 200 people in late February, is now well known as a source of Covid-19 spread very early on in the pandemic.
If you look at it like that the very first transmission was a superspreading event related to several million cases.
A lot of this depends on the Scottish question - I suspect it will be used to push a Scots independence/EU narrative by the SNP and a Unionist defence by the Tories - quite how Lab and LDs engage with this one will be one to watch
A lot of this depends on the Scottish question - I suspect it will be used to push a Scots independence/EU narrative by the SNP and a Unionist defence by the Tories - quite how Lab and LDs engage with this one will be one to watch
At the moment the UK government seems to be doing everything it can to enhance the Scottish government’s credibility and fuel the calls for independence.
A lot of this depends on the Scottish question - I suspect it will be used to push a Scots independence/EU narrative by the SNP and a Unionist defence by the Tories - quite how Lab and LDs engage with this one will be one to watch
At the moment the UK government seems to be doing everything it can to enhance the Scottish government’s credibility and fuel the calls for independence.
The unexpected prominence of health this year, it being a devolved matter, and the contrast in style (many would say competence too) between Johnson and Sturgeon could be a tipping point.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Maybe if a third of MPs had to be re-elected too?
Or if a large number of Tory MPs start to panic about losing their seats....
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
I certainly won't be voting Tory next May, for example.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
The problem with Williamson is his credibility is shot through and just seeing him on the media waffling along just adds to the despair that he is still in post
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Biden’s “you ain’t black” comments are predictably being raised by a lot of black Republicans at their convention.
It looks like an appeal to minorities is going to be big part of the GOP campaign, highlighting that the “BLM movement” is now mostly made up of middle class white kids rioting, as opposed to the principle of not being racist, and Republicans wholeheartedly supports the principle of not being racist.
And here’s an interesting interview with another black Republican standing for Congress in New Jersey (first five or six minutes are about media bias, then it gets more interesting) https://youtube.com/watch?v=x90yGbvepAk
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
In Scotland at least there will be national consequences of a sort. If the SNP plus their little green helpers get more than 50% of the vote on a manifesto committed to a second referendum I think that will be a game changer. Conversely, if they don't get a majority of the vote then Indyref2 can probably be resisted for several more years.
For Labour the Scottish elections are also important. They need to find a way to get back in the game up here if they are to be genuine contenders to be the next government. At the moment its not clear how they can do that but SKS really should be giving Scotland a lot of his attention.
The only story that matters in next May's elections is do the SNP get a majority to demand a second independence referendum - at the moment probably yes.
The rest may be meaningful to the likes of the Lib Dems but means nothing to almost anyone else in comparison.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
I agree with both moonshine and DecrepiterJohnL on this.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
At most the UK 2021 elections could be compared with state elections in the US, which apart from a few Govenor races are totally ignored in the UK. Most of the UK local elections have the same impact with city or county elections in the US. Funny that.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Corbyn and Trump are very, very alike in a lot of ways and I think like in 2019 the betting markets are over-reacting to what happened last time. In 2016/17 Trump/Corbyn majorly outperformed the received wisdom and despite getting millions fewer votes overall was narrowly-elected/nearly became PM. Flash forward next time and the polls are even worse for Trump/Corbyn than last time, the public knows them better now too and views are more entrenched, but the betting markets are discounting the polls because of what happened last time.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
At most the UK 2021 elections could be compared with state elections in the US, which apart from a few Govenor races are totally ignored in the UK. Most of the UK local elections have the same impact with city or county elections in the US. Funny that.
I've already mentioned Scotland but will Labour finally lose their grip on Wales? That would be a serious blow for SKS.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
In Scotland at least there will be national consequences of a sort. If the SNP plus their little green helpers get more than 50% of the vote on a manifesto committed to a second referendum I think that will be a game changer. Conversely, if they don't get a majority of the vote then Indyref2 can probably be resisted for several more years.
For Labour the Scottish elections are also important. They need to find a way to get back in the game up here if they are to be genuine contenders to be the next government. At the moment its not clear how they can do that but SKS really should be giving Scotland a lot of his attention.
In the UK as a whole too it will be of consequence if there is a second Independence Referendum, if that happens then the Constitution will dominate the rest of Boris's tenure in Downing Street one way or another rather than being resolved post-Brexit.
In contrast who is response for sorting out potholes is not going to affect Parliament meaningfully.
The only story that matters in next May's elections is do the SNP get a majority to demand a second independence referendum - at the moment probably yes.
The rest may be meaningful to the likes of the Lib Dems but means nothing to almost anyone else in comparison.
The biggest problem with local elections is getting voters interested enough to vote. It is meaningless to project the results to the national level when the turnout is only 25-30%. But really, democracy in the UK would be the winner if that figure got up to over 50%.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
At most the UK 2021 elections could be compared with state elections in the US, which apart from a few Govenor races are totally ignored in the UK. Most of the UK local elections have the same impact with city or county elections in the US. Funny that.
I've already mentioned Scotland but will Labour finally lose their grip on Wales? That would be a serious blow for SKS.
You dont mean Mark Reckless and the Brexit party do you? I have never really got my head around their strength in Wales........
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
Not sure that is true. May delivered a 20% increase in the Tory vote over 2015...
As someone who supports Scottish independence in principle but doesn't want it to dominate politics for the next few years and would rather it be a bomb to explode on Labour's watch than the Tories (which would be fitting, they created this mess with devolution) - I am reminded of Saint Augustine.
God give me SIndyRef2, but not yet. I suspect it will be unavoidable after May though.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
In Scotland at least there will be national consequences of a sort. If the SNP plus their little green helpers get more than 50% of the vote on a manifesto committed to a second referendum I think that will be a game changer. Conversely, if they don't get a majority of the vote then Indyref2 can probably be resisted for several more years.
For Labour the Scottish elections are also important. They need to find a way to get back in the game up here if they are to be genuine contenders to be the next government. At the moment its not clear how they can do that but SKS really should be giving Scotland a lot of his attention.
Trouble with SKS working Scotland hard is that he will still get handed his ass on a plate by Sturgeon. He may as well carry on with his steady as she goes, wise after the event tack that seems (seems) to have done him OK so far in England.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
At most the UK 2021 elections could be compared with state elections in the US, which apart from a few Govenor races are totally ignored in the UK. Most of the UK local elections have the same impact with city or county elections in the US. Funny that.
I've already mentioned Scotland but will Labour finally lose their grip on Wales? That would be a serious blow for SKS.
You dont mean Mark Reckless and the Brexit party do you? I have never really got my head around their strength in Wales........
I am guessing its due to the fact that Wales is a pro-Brexit country that is ambivalent at best about the Tories in large parts. While for some reason the Welsh Labour Party seems even more Europhile than its UK counterparty despite the fact that Wales unequivocally voted for Brexit while the UK Labour Party at least is trying to appeal to Scotland the Welsh Labour Party don't have to.
So I'm guessing that pro-Brexit but anti-Tory voters are attracted to the Brexit Party. They fill a void.
Does that make sense to our Welsh posters, or would you give a different explanation?
On topic, it's Starmer's first big test so the trends will be very interesting.
At present, I expect a rise in Labour's support and a gain of several hundred councillors.
If I were to guess, I'd say the red wall will see a far more modest rise and the south/south-east (where the demographics favour affluent liberal young middle-class voters) will see a disproportionate rise.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
In Scotland at least there will be national consequences of a sort. If the SNP plus their little green helpers get more than 50% of the vote on a manifesto committed to a second referendum I think that will be a game changer. Conversely, if they don't get a majority of the vote then Indyref2 can probably be resisted for several more years.
For Labour the Scottish elections are also important. They need to find a way to get back in the game up here if they are to be genuine contenders to be the next government. At the moment its not clear how they can do that but SKS really should be giving Scotland a lot of his attention.
In the UK as a whole too it will be of consequence if there is a second Independence Referendum, if that happens then the Constitution will dominate the rest of Boris's tenure in Downing Street one way or another rather than being resolved post-Brexit.
In contrast who is response for sorting out potholes is not going to affect Parliament meaningfully.
I agree with that in terms of direct power but it is critical to the Lib Dems that they start to build their councillor base again and increase their profile in seats that they might hope to become competitive in again in the future. "Midterms" is probably overstating it but Mike is right that there is going to be a remarkable number of elections with a lot of interest.
Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan will be big winners for Labour but they may lose important ground elsewhere.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
At most the UK 2021 elections could be compared with state elections in the US, which apart from a few Govenor races are totally ignored in the UK. Most of the UK local elections have the same impact with city or county elections in the US. Funny that.
I've already mentioned Scotland but will Labour finally lose their grip on Wales? That would be a serious blow for SKS.
I doubt it. The Labour Party has a lot of its original roots in Wales so many feel it's part of their heritage, and opposition is split between Plaid and the Tories.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
At most the UK 2021 elections could be compared with state elections in the US, which apart from a few Govenor races are totally ignored in the UK. Most of the UK local elections have the same impact with city or county elections in the US. Funny that.
I've already mentioned Scotland but will Labour finally lose their grip on Wales? That would be a serious blow for SKS.
You dont mean Mark Reckless and the Brexit party do you? I have never really got my head around their strength in Wales........
I am guessing its due to the fact that Wales is a pro-Brexit country that is ambivalent at best about the Tories in large parts. While for some reason the Welsh Labour Party seems even more Europhile than its UK counterparty despite the fact that Wales unequivocally voted for Brexit while the UK Labour Party at least is trying to appeal to Scotland the Welsh Labour Party don't have to.
So I'm guessing that pro-Brexit but anti-Tory voters are attracted to the Brexit Party. They fill a void.
Does that make sense to our Welsh posters, or would you give a different explanation?
UKIP/BXP did well at the last Welsh elections because of the llst vote just like UKIP/BXP in the Euro elections. Winning single seat FPTP elections was always alway out of reach
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Corbyn and Trump are very, very alike in a lot of ways and I think like in 2019 the betting markets are over-reacting to what happened last time. In 2016/17 Trump/Corbyn majorly outperformed the received wisdom and despite getting millions fewer votes overall was narrowly-elected/nearly became PM. Flash forward next time and the polls are even worse for Trump/Corbyn than last time, the public knows them better now too and views are more entrenched, but the betting markets are discounting the polls because of what happened last time.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
Probably, but I think it's also that some punters are taking a view that polling this far out isn't terribly predictive*, and have reasons to believe the polls will move towards Trump (better economic news, for example). I am hopeful that most people have already made up their minds, and not enough will change them even if the economy starts booming.
"Undoubtedly, it’s a bullish sign for Biden to be this far ahead of Trump. In fact, since 1968, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the first convention. However, before we get too carried away, the size of Biden’s pre-convention lead is unlikely to hold. After all, two other presidential contenders led by margins similar to Biden’s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000, but by November their leads had all but evaporated. Carter only narrowly beat Gerald Ford by about 2 points nationally, while Bush won the most highly contested election in modern times, which took the U.S. Supreme Court to sort out."
Wherever your opinion lies on masks (and I was a grudging acceptor of them in shops), I think most can acknowledge that secondary schools are going to be a more challenging use case than shops were.
The teenager's one mask will be mostly used throughout the day and will be going on and then off again several times between lessons and, quite possibly, on the morning and evening bus as well.
Between times, it will be going, maybe in a plastic bag, maybe not, in a pocket with various other accoutrements that will then be contaminated as they come into use. Some masks will get lost around and about. Basically, if we're not careful then at-rest masks, in this particular case, could become as much a mechanism of spread as of prevention.
Ultimately, this is why tissues usurped handkerchiefs some decades ago, but with even disposable masks coming in at 60p a pop (Boots 50 pack price quoted), how will the same logic be applied here?
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
Not sure that is true. May delivered a 20% increase in the Tory vote over 2015...
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Corbyn and Trump are very, very alike in a lot of ways and I think like in 2019 the betting markets are over-reacting to what happened last time. In 2016/17 Trump/Corbyn majorly outperformed the received wisdom and despite getting millions fewer votes overall was narrowly-elected/nearly became PM. Flash forward next time and the polls are even worse for Trump/Corbyn than last time, the public knows them better now too and views are more entrenched, but the betting markets are discounting the polls because of what happened last time.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
Probably, but I think it's also that some punters are taking a view that polling this far out isn't terribly predictive*, and have reasons to believe the polls will move towards Trump (better economic news, for example). I am hopeful that most people have already made up their minds, and not enough will change them even if the economy starts booming.
"Undoubtedly, it’s a bullish sign for Biden to be this far ahead of Trump. In fact, since 1968, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the first convention. However, before we get too carried away, the size of Biden’s pre-convention lead is unlikely to hold. After all, two other presidential contenders led by margins similar to Biden’s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000, but by November their leads had all but evaporated. Carter only narrowly beat Gerald Ford by about 2 points nationally, while Bush won the most highly contested election in modern times, which took the U.S. Supreme Court to sort out."
Just as a reminder for those who discount the shy Trump voter theory ...
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Yep. Can't help having a really bad feeling about all this. Biden just ahead in swing states, piling up votes in safe counties, the bien pensant sure that 2nd term Trump would be such a disaster nobody will vote for him etc etc. Here we go again.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
As ever, the Simpsons said it first and best. "Blowing it is what Democrats do", or something very similar.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
What are you wittering on about?
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Biden’s “you ain’t black” comments are predictably being raised by a lot of black Republicans at their convention.
It looks like an appeal to minorities is going to be big part of the GOP campaign, highlighting that the “BLM movement” is now mostly made up of middle class white kids rioting, as opposed to the principle of not being racist, and Republicans wholeheartedly supports the principle of not being racist.
And here’s an interesting interview with another black Republican standing for Congress in New Jersey (first five or six minutes are about media bias, then it gets more interesting) https://youtube.com/watch?v=x90yGbvepAk
Agree on that, and another part of it will be to highlight the "Defund the Police" campaign and what that means for inner city crime. Kim Klacik's video emphasised that a lot.
Wherever your opinion lies on masks (and I was a grudging acceptor of them in shops), I think most can acknowledge that secondary schools are going to be a more challenging use case than shops were.
The teenager's one mask will be mostly used throughout the day and will be going on and then off again several times between lessons and, quite possibly, on the morning and evening bus as well.
Between times, it will be going, maybe in a plastic bag, maybe not, in a pocket with various other accoutrements that will then be contaminated as they come into use. Some masks will get lost around and about. Basically, if we're not careful then at-rest masks, in this particular case, could become as much a mechanism of spread as of prevention.
Ultimately, this is why tissues usurped handkerchiefs some decades ago, but with even disposable masks coming in at 60p a pop (Boots 50 pack price quoted), how will the same logic be applied here?
I use ribbon ones tied around my neck and just pull them up or down as required.
Now it isn’t going to be perfect but I suspect that approach is good enough and better than the putting it back in your pocket approach
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Yep. Can't help having a really bad feeling about all this. Biden just ahead in swing states, piling up votes in safe counties, the bien pensant sure that 2nd term Trump would be such a disaster nobody will vote for him etc etc. Here we go again.
Hope I am wrong.
I know I have been open on here saying Trump will win so it won't come as a surprise to say I think you are right.
We had a fair few on here claiming that the riots and disorder would not help Trump because it wasn't showing up in the polls. It looks like the penny is starting to drop.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Corbyn and Trump are very, very alike in a lot of ways and I think like in 2019 the betting markets are over-reacting to what happened last time. In 2016/17 Trump/Corbyn majorly outperformed the received wisdom and despite getting millions fewer votes overall was narrowly-elected/nearly became PM. Flash forward next time and the polls are even worse for Trump/Corbyn than last time, the public knows them better now too and views are more entrenched, but the betting markets are discounting the polls because of what happened last time.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
Probably, but I think it's also that some punters are taking a view that polling this far out isn't terribly predictive*, and have reasons to believe the polls will move towards Trump (better economic news, for example). I am hopeful that most people have already made up their minds, and not enough will change them even if the economy starts booming.
"Undoubtedly, it’s a bullish sign for Biden to be this far ahead of Trump. In fact, since 1968, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the first convention. However, before we get too carried away, the size of Biden’s pre-convention lead is unlikely to hold. After all, two other presidential contenders led by margins similar to Biden’s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000, but by November their leads had all but evaporated. Carter only narrowly beat Gerald Ford by about 2 points nationally, while Bush won the most highly contested election in modern times, which took the U.S. Supreme Court to sort out."
Just as a reminder for those who discount the shy Trump voter theory ...
Trumps approval rating has been remarkably steady, its barely budged from the 41-43% for over 2 years.
He's been president for a while now, so I just don't see where his extra support is going to come from. With a reduced 3rd party vote I expect he needs to get to 48% as a minimum even to weave a victory out of the electoral college.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Yep. Can't help having a really bad feeling about all this. Biden just ahead in swing states, piling up votes in safe counties, the bien pensant sure that 2nd term Trump would be such a disaster nobody will vote for him etc etc. Here we go again.
Hope I am wrong.
I know I have been open on here saying Trump will win so it won't come as a surprise to say I think you are right.
We had a fair few on here claiming that the riots and disorder would not help Trump because it wasn't showing up in the polls. It looks like the penny is starting to drop.
What's the polling evidence for this? Biden's lead is now out to 9.3% on 538, which is almost exactly where it was at the start of July. I don't really see any evidence of 'the penny starting to drop'.
Are these kids actually secretly working for Trump?
You don't get justice and equality by politely waiting for it to be dispensed.
Trotsky: A revolution is directly made by a minority.
Well Trotsky was a major part of a lunatic murderous regime so we can discount him.
And yes you need to be forceful to get change. It doesnt follow that every version of being forceful is effective, like yelling at people in a restaurant who might well already support you with idiotic racial slogans.
Or do you think theres no difference in efficacy between protest methods?
It's not a choice between silence and polite disagreement and thuggery. There are other options, which people use to great effect.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Corbyn and Trump are very, very alike in a lot of ways and I think like in 2019 the betting markets are over-reacting to what happened last time. In 2016/17 Trump/Corbyn majorly outperformed the received wisdom and despite getting millions fewer votes overall was narrowly-elected/nearly became PM. Flash forward next time and the polls are even worse for Trump/Corbyn than last time, the public knows them better now too and views are more entrenched, but the betting markets are discounting the polls because of what happened last time.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
Probably, but I think it's also that some punters are taking a view that polling this far out isn't terribly predictive*, and have reasons to believe the polls will move towards Trump (better economic news, for example). I am hopeful that most people have already made up their minds, and not enough will change them even if the economy starts booming.
"Undoubtedly, it’s a bullish sign for Biden to be this far ahead of Trump. In fact, since 1968, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the first convention. However, before we get too carried away, the size of Biden’s pre-convention lead is unlikely to hold. After all, two other presidential contenders led by margins similar to Biden’s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000, but by November their leads had all but evaporated. Carter only narrowly beat Gerald Ford by about 2 points nationally, while Bush won the most highly contested election in modern times, which took the U.S. Supreme Court to sort out."
Just as a reminder for those who discount the shy Trump voter theory ...
Trumps approval rating has been remarkably steady, its barely budged from the 41-43% for over 2 years.
He's been president for a while now, so I just don't see where his extra support is going to come from. With a reduced 3rd party vote I expect he needs to get to 48% as a minimum even to weave a victory out of the electoral college.
He gets it from those voters who voted for the Libertarians and Evan McMullin in 2016. As a reminder, Clinton got the same number of votes as Obama in 2012, Trump got 2m more than Romney in 2012 but 5.2m votes went to Libs / McMullin. In a number of states (Nevada eg), the combined Libertarian / McMullin vote was greater than the Democrat margin of victory. In Virginia, it was around the same.
The other way he will win is by depressing the Black vote by highlighting Defund the Police and asking what the Democrats have done for the Black community. If he can drive down turnout in places like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, then he can keep PA, MI and WI.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Corbyn and Trump are very, very alike in a lot of ways and I think like in 2019 the betting markets are over-reacting to what happened last time. In 2016/17 Trump/Corbyn majorly outperformed the received wisdom and despite getting millions fewer votes overall was narrowly-elected/nearly became PM. Flash forward next time and the polls are even worse for Trump/Corbyn than last time, the public knows them better now too and views are more entrenched, but the betting markets are discounting the polls because of what happened last time.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
Probably, but I think it's also that some punters are taking a view that polling this far out isn't terribly predictive*, and have reasons to believe the polls will move towards Trump (better economic news, for example). I am hopeful that most people have already made up their minds, and not enough will change them even if the economy starts booming.
"Undoubtedly, it’s a bullish sign for Biden to be this far ahead of Trump. In fact, since 1968, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the first convention. However, before we get too carried away, the size of Biden’s pre-convention lead is unlikely to hold. After all, two other presidential contenders led by margins similar to Biden’s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000, but by November their leads had all but evaporated. Carter only narrowly beat Gerald Ford by about 2 points nationally, while Bush won the most highly contested election in modern times, which took the U.S. Supreme Court to sort out."
Just as a reminder for those who discount the shy Trump voter theory ...
Trumps approval rating has been remarkably steady, its barely budged from the 41-43% for over 2 years.
He's been president for a while now, so I just don't see where his extra support is going to come from. With a reduced 3rd party vote I expect he needs to get to 48% as a minimum even to weave a victory out of the electoral college.
This is the question and to incorporate @Philip_Thompson's well-argued point about Corbyn/Trump - the reason I backed Cons for a 60-100 maj was I just could not see where Corbyn's extra support would come from. He had roused the non-voting students, brought on board the Brexit-hating soft Cons (ahem, some of them), and generally peaked with all systems firing in 2017 and come up short.
There was nowhere else for more support to come from.
I really don't understand US politics - but have backed Trump to win because as stated yesterday a lot of his bonkersness is in the price and as someone else also said, he is "our" madman and if you take him out of the equation (!) then it seems he has delivered, Covid notwithstanding, on his economic promises.
Wherever your opinion lies on masks (and I was a grudging acceptor of them in shops), I think most can acknowledge that secondary schools are going to be a more challenging use case than shops were.
The teenager's one mask will be mostly used throughout the day and will be going on and then off again several times between lessons and, quite possibly, on the morning and evening bus as well.
Between times, it will be going, maybe in a plastic bag, maybe not, in a pocket with various other accoutrements that will then be contaminated as they come into use. Some masks will get lost around and about. Basically, if we're not careful then at-rest masks, in this particular case, could become as much a mechanism of spread as of prevention.
Ultimately, this is why tissues usurped handkerchiefs some decades ago, but with even disposable masks coming in at 60p a pop (Boots 50 pack price quoted), how will the same logic be applied here?
I use ribbon ones tied around my neck and just pull them up or down as required.
Now it isn’t going to be perfect but I suspect that approach is good enough and better than the putting it back in your pocket approach
Yes, I'm sure there are solutions to this that individuals can come up with. The important thing here is, in aggregate, what is actually going to happen in the school environment for a 5 minutes on / 1 hour off pattern. As ever, this one needs the government to go a step further with their advice on best practice to address such things. Past record suggests that is not entirely likely.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Yep. Can't help having a really bad feeling about all this. Biden just ahead in swing states, piling up votes in safe counties, the bien pensant sure that 2nd term Trump would be such a disaster nobody will vote for him etc etc. Here we go again.
Hope I am wrong.
I know I have been open on here saying Trump will win so it won't come as a surprise to say I think you are right.
We had a fair few on here claiming that the riots and disorder would not help Trump because it wasn't showing up in the polls. It looks like the penny is starting to drop.
What's the polling evidence for this? Biden's lead is now out to 9.3% on 538, which is almost exactly where it was at the start of July. I don't really see any evidence of 'the penny starting to drop'.
The RCP average is 7.6. 538 seems to be influenced by a slew of Morning Consult daily polls.
RCP also has Biden's lead in battleground states coming down again. Trafalgar has Trump up by 1 in Wisconsin in the latest poll.
As for the penny dropping, look at the reaction to scenes like the demonstrators screaming in the face of someone who won't do what they want. People are realising that doesn't play well with voters.
An interesting read in The Grocer detailing Whitehall planners "reasonable worse case scenario" or No Deal and a 2nd Covid spike. They forecast:
45% reduction in Dover Calais traffic Food, Medicines, Fuel and Chemicals shortages Water Rationing and Power Cuts Army backup for police to maintain law and order Air drops of Food to the Channel Islands to bypass Royal Navy / EU Fishing disputes
Sounds Fab! And with minimal effort being made by the UK government either to reach a deal or to prepare for the mechanics of no deal, this is going to be fun*
Not that this will come as much of a surprise but having read extensively over the last couple of days I now agree with @Dura_Ace that the current integrated defence review is about saving money.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
What are you wittering on about?
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
The aren't following scientific advice. The previous "its safe" edict was not supported by their own scientists.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Yep. Can't help having a really bad feeling about all this. Biden just ahead in swing states, piling up votes in safe counties, the bien pensant sure that 2nd term Trump would be such a disaster nobody will vote for him etc etc. Here we go again.
Hope I am wrong.
I know I have been open on here saying Trump will win so it won't come as a surprise to say I think you are right.
We had a fair few on here claiming that the riots and disorder would not help Trump because it wasn't showing up in the polls. It looks like the penny is starting to drop.
What's the polling evidence for this? Biden's lead is now out to 9.3% on 538, which is almost exactly where it was at the start of July. I don't really see any evidence of 'the penny starting to drop'.
The RCP average is 7.6. 538 seems to be influenced by a slew of Morning Consult daily polls.
RCP also has Biden's lead in battleground states coming down again. Trafalgar has Trump up by 1 in Wisconsin in the latest poll.
As for the penny dropping, look at the reaction to scenes like the demonstrators screaming in the face of someone who won't do what they want. People are realising that doesn't play well with voters.
I'll agree with you on the demo stuff. I'd be furious if I was one of the diners.
Also you're right about black turnout being crucial, especially in Wisconsin, so the Dems need to up their game on getting out the vote.
I think Arizona could end up crucial to a Biden victory this time. The senate race looks very good for the Dems and the demographics will really help him this year, which adds another path to victory.
Are these kids actually secretly working for Trump?
From reading that article there it seems like these protesters may have turned her from supporting them into opposing them.
When will people learn that you cannot force or coerce someone into agreeing with you or doing what you want them to do.
Its nothing to do with persuading. It is venting and ego stroking for the righteous. (and counterproductive, of course).
Considering the US police once again repeatedly shot an unarmed black man this weekend in front of his children, leaving him paralysed for life after a bullet severed his spinal cord - and that this is just one of countless atrocities this year alone - there is much to be righteous about.
In my view at least repeatedly violent and abusive agents of the state extrajudicially killing or paralysing people is worse than protests.
The US isn't the UK. That shooting, like countless other shootings, would not have occurred in this country.
Are these kids actually secretly working for Trump?
You don't get justice and equality by politely waiting for it to be dispensed.
Trotsky: A revolution is directly made by a minority.
A whiff of "revolution" in the air is just the way to get four more years of Trump. The great bulk of American voters will happily go another 237 years and counting without another, thank you very much.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Corbyn and Trump are very, very alike in a lot of ways and I think like in 2019 the betting markets are over-reacting to what happened last time. In 2016/17 Trump/Corbyn majorly outperformed the received wisdom and despite getting millions fewer votes overall was narrowly-elected/nearly became PM. Flash forward next time and the polls are even worse for Trump/Corbyn than last time, the public knows them better now too and views are more entrenched, but the betting markets are discounting the polls because of what happened last time.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
Corbyn is nothing like Trump as a person or as a politician but other than that I green tick this analysis. The evidence says he will lose and he should be longer odds. The reason he isn't is that punters are fixated on what happened last time and it is clouding their thinking. The same thing happened with our GE. The evidence said Tory landslide. Tory landslide was nevertheless a minority opinion. Tory landslide duly happened. That was a great betting opportunity. So is WH2020. Lay Trump and back him to get less than 200 in the EC. You will be smiling on Nov 4th. Course you will be anyway if you are of sound mind and good character, since an individual who should never have been allowed anywhere near political power let alone the US presidency will be on his way out, but it never hurts to win a few quid too when the chance presents itself.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
What are you wittering on about?
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
Mr Sharma was saying only yesterday that the English gmt was not going to review the matter, ie the matter was closed. That was well after the weekend, new evidence, etc. It was politics to make that decision or to go for the other option - or both.
Wherever your opinion lies on masks (and I was a grudging acceptor of them in shops), I think most can acknowledge that secondary schools are going to be a more challenging use case than shops were.
The teenager's one mask will be mostly used throughout the day and will be going on and then off again several times between lessons and, quite possibly, on the morning and evening bus as well.
Between times, it will be going, maybe in a plastic bag, maybe not, in a pocket with various other accoutrements that will then be contaminated as they come into use. Some masks will get lost around and about. Basically, if we're not careful then at-rest masks, in this particular case, could become as much a mechanism of spread as of prevention.
Ultimately, this is why tissues usurped handkerchiefs some decades ago, but with even disposable masks coming in at 60p a pop (Boots 50 pack price quoted), how will the same logic be applied here?
I use ribbon ones tied around my neck and just pull them up or down as required.
Now it isn’t going to be perfect but I suspect that approach is good enough and better than the putting it back in your pocket approach
Yes, I'm sure there are solutions to this that individuals can come up with. The important thing here is, in aggregate, what is actually going to happen in the school environment for a 5 minutes on / 1 hour off pattern. As ever, this one needs the government to go a step further with their advice on best practice to address such things. Past record suggests that is not entirely likely.
I think letting headteachers work out what will work best in their schools is probably the solution here. That lets them react as needed and find the advice for themselves rather than waiting for it to be filtered through several layers of bureaucracy. Or do we think that the Department for Education has a demonstrated track record of competence and an ability to react quickly to changing circumstances?
The Challenger 2 tank fleet was fucked as soon as Heavy Equipment Transport was privatised with KBR. The MoD immediately spied an opportunity to make a quid and subleased most of them to US Army in Europe. There is no point in having MBTs or paying to modernise them if you haven't got the capability to move them where they are needed.
30 ton 8x8 wheeled AFVs are the future for the British Army as they don't (in theory) need HET.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
What are you wittering on about?
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
Mr Sharma was saying only yesterday that the English gmt was not going to review the matter, ie the matter was closed. That was well after the weekend, new evidence, etc. It was politics to make that decision or to go for the other option - or both.
Do you have a link for that? I’d like to know the context though if he said it yesterday then that was foolish of him, as the WHO advice had changed.
The Challenger 2 tank fleet was fucked as soon as Heavy Equipment Transport was privatised with KBR. The MoD immediately spied an opportunity to make a quid and subleased most of them to US Army in Europe. There is no point in having MBTs or paying to modernise them if you haven't got the capability to move them where they are needed.
30 ton 8x8 wheeled AFVs are the future for the British Army as they don't (in theory) need HET.
Do we still get our 10-15 minutes of glory before we are obliterated and wiped off the face of Eastern Europe?
Surely the issue with America is wider than basic racism, its that it arms the racists and arms the people the racists are racist towards. "I shot him in self defense" is a nice shield is it not. Remove the guns and remove the problem. I know, it won't happen...
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
It’s interesting reading the comments below that article and others like it in places like the Mail. There seems to be an almost universal sense that Trump is unbeatable. Either because people like him and want him to win, or because they hate him and are resigned to him winning.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
I think that is right, although with an important proviso. The polling is clear that if the election were held today, Biden would win in a landslide. November, though, is two months away so there is still time for Trump to turn it round, like Corbyn almost did in 2017.
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
Corbyn and Trump are very, very alike in a lot of ways and I think like in 2019 the betting markets are over-reacting to what happened last time. In 2016/17 Trump/Corbyn majorly outperformed the received wisdom and despite getting millions fewer votes overall was narrowly-elected/nearly became PM. Flash forward next time and the polls are even worse for Trump/Corbyn than last time, the public knows them better now too and views are more entrenched, but the betting markets are discounting the polls because of what happened last time.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
Corbyn is nothing like Trump as a person or as a politician but other than that I green tick this analysis. The evidence says he will lose and he should be longer odds. The reason he isn't is that punters are fixated on what happened last time and it is clouding their thinking. The same thing happened with our GE. The evidence said Tory landslide. Tory landslide was nevertheless a minority opinion. Tory landslide duly happened. That was a great betting opportunity. So is WH2020. Lay Trump and back him to get less than 200 in the EC. You will be smiling on Nov 4th. Course you will be anyway if you are of sound mind and good character, since an individual who should never have been allowed anywhere near political power let alone the US presidency will be on his way out, but it never hurts to win a few quid too when the chance presents itself.
Nothing like?
One is someone who was never expected to become leader or taken seriously even within his party, an elderly man who had a lifetime not contributing to frontline politics, was dismissed even by his own side as a crank when he put his name forward, but got almost zealotry support from his supporters. Even after becoming leader has seen divisions within the party with former prominent supporters of the party suggesting to vote for the opposition because this leader was beyond the pale. Denounced as clearly racist by his opponents and many from the same party too and very popular with racists. Happy to share a platform with racists.
The local elections next year at county and district level should be an opportunity for gains for the LDs in England, particularly continuing in opposition to new housing and going on Nimbyism and also seeking to make inroads into Tory Remain areas. Labour will be seeking to expand its lead in London at the Mayoral and Assembly elections and the SNP seeking to hold its Holyrood majority with the Greens and thus push for indyref2 while Welsh Labour will hope to hold on in Cardiff.
There will also be Police and Crime commissioner elections.
It should also be noted that in 2017 the Tories got 38% and Labour just 27% at the county elections compared to 42% and 40% at the general election while the LDs got 18% compared to just 7% at the general election. The LDs therefore did much better at county than national level and will seek to expand on that county council success next year, the Tories will seek to hold their seats and Labour to make gains too
Surely the issue with America is wider than basic racism, its that it arms the racists and arms the people the racists are racist towards. "I shot him in self defense" is a nice shield is it not. Remove the guns and remove the problem. I know, it won't happen...
There was a recent case in California where a law that banned magazines with a capacity of more than ten rounds was thrown out by a Federal court as unconstitutional.
Getting rid of guns in the US would require an amendment to the constitution and those are difficult enough for fairly in controversial amendments.
Surely the issue with America is wider than basic racism, its that it arms the racists and arms the people the racists are racist towards. "I shot him in self defense" is a nice shield is it not. Remove the guns and remove the problem. I know, it won't happen...
Remove the guns - and they'd just kill each other with monster trucks instead.
The Challenger 2 tank fleet was fucked as soon as Heavy Equipment Transport was privatised with KBR. The MoD immediately spied an opportunity to make a quid and subleased most of them to US Army in Europe. There is no point in having MBTs or paying to modernise them if you haven't got the capability to move them where they are needed.
30 ton 8x8 wheeled AFVs are the future for the British Army as they don't (in theory) need HET.
Do we still get our 10-15 minutes of glory before we are obliterated and wiped off the face of Eastern Europe?
Only if you can change the tyre on a Boxer AFV using a jack borrowed from some mum's Qashqai at South Mimms services.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
What are you wittering on about?
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
Mr Sharma was saying only yesterday that the English gmt was not going to review the matter, ie the matter was closed. That was well after the weekend, new evidence, etc. It was politics to make that decision or to go for the other option - or both.
Do you have a link for that? I’d like to know the context though if he said it yesterday then that was foolish of him, as the WHO advice had changed.
You don’t need a link take my word for it that’s exactly what Sharma said.
Wherever your opinion lies on masks (and I was a grudging acceptor of them in shops), I think most can acknowledge that secondary schools are going to be a more challenging use case than shops were.
The teenager's one mask will be mostly used throughout the day and will be going on and then off again several times between lessons and, quite possibly, on the morning and evening bus as well.
Between times, it will be going, maybe in a plastic bag, maybe not, in a pocket with various other accoutrements that will then be contaminated as they come into use. Some masks will get lost around and about. Basically, if we're not careful then at-rest masks, in this particular case, could become as much a mechanism of spread as of prevention.
Ultimately, this is why tissues usurped handkerchiefs some decades ago, but with even disposable masks coming in at 60p a pop (Boots 50 pack price quoted), how will the same logic be applied here?
I use ribbon ones tied around my neck and just pull them up or down as required.
Now it isn’t going to be perfect but I suspect that approach is good enough and better than the putting it back in your pocket approach
Yes, I'm sure there are solutions to this that individuals can come up with. The important thing here is, in aggregate, what is actually going to happen in the school environment for a 5 minutes on / 1 hour off pattern. As ever, this one needs the government to go a step further with their advice on best practice to address such things. Past record suggests that is not entirely likely.
I thought that the idea of masks is to stop the wearer generating aerosols. If masks do that, then it doesn't matter at all how they are handled between uses. 99% of any contamination on them will be self-generated.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
What are you wittering on about?
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
Mr Sharma was saying only yesterday that the English gmt was not going to review the matter, ie the matter was closed. That was well after the weekend, new evidence, etc. It was politics to make that decision or to go for the other option - or both.
Do you have a link for that? I’d like to know the context though if he said it yesterday then that was foolish of him, as the WHO advice had changed.
I just checked my memory from this summary as I was so surprised by @Philip_Thompson 's statement in view of the apparent positive rejection involved of the scientific evidence :
But you're quite right to want more context and I should have dig deeper. Howeever, this seems clear enough - note that this is about 'current advice' and, incidentally, after the well-publicised news of likely change of advice elsewhere in the UK (eg the Scottish Gmt had the day before confirmed it was consulting with the unions etc before bringing in facemasks).
'Alok Sharma says pupils and staff will not be penalised for wearing masks in schools in England Alok Sharma, the business secretary, said school staff or young people would not be penalised for wearing facemasks when schools reopen, although the advice is that they are currently not necessary.
Speaking on the Radio 4 Today programme, Sharma said that the government has followed scientific and medical advice.
“Public Health England does not recommend at the moment [facemasks] in schools... We are always considering the latest advice and evidence but the current advice is that it is not recommended.”'
The Challenger 2 tank fleet was fucked as soon as Heavy Equipment Transport was privatised with KBR. The MoD immediately spied an opportunity to make a quid and subleased most of them to US Army in Europe. There is no point in having MBTs or paying to modernise them if you haven't got the capability to move them where they are needed.
30 ton 8x8 wheeled AFVs are the future for the British Army as they don't (in theory) need HET.
Do we still get our 10-15 minutes of glory before we are obliterated and wiped off the face of Eastern Europe?
Only if you can change the tyre on a Boxer AFV using a jack borrowed from some mum's Qashqai at South Mimms services.
Just thinking it took them a long time to adopt 8x8s. I was surprised to find that the German 234 at Bovington Tank Museum (1943 vintage) has the distinctive British towing gear fitted that you'd find on things like an AEC Matador lorry - when I inquired it turned out that the Fighting Vehile R&D Establishment had welded them on as part of trials into such 8x8 vehicles in the immediate postwar eyars.
Dominic Green in today's Daily Telegraph: "America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
Dominic Green compares the Democrat campaign with Remain in the EU referendum:
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
Yep. Can't help having a really bad feeling about all this. Biden just ahead in swing states, piling up votes in safe counties, the bien pensant sure that 2nd term Trump would be such a disaster nobody will vote for him etc etc. Here we go again.
Hope I am wrong.
I know I have been open on here saying Trump will win so it won't come as a surprise to say I think you are right.
We had a fair few on here claiming that the riots and disorder would not help Trump because it wasn't showing up in the polls. It looks like the penny is starting to drop.
What's the polling evidence for this? Biden's lead is now out to 9.3% on 538, which is almost exactly where it was at the start of July. I don't really see any evidence of 'the penny starting to drop'.
Didn't you know, a shy Trump voters tariff should now be applied to every poll.
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
What are you wittering on about?
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
Mr Sharma was saying only yesterday that the English gmt was not going to review the matter, ie the matter was closed. That was well after the weekend, new evidence, etc. It was politics to make that decision or to go for the other option - or both.
Do you have a link for that? I’d like to know the context though if he said it yesterday then that was foolish of him, as the WHO advice had changed.
I just checked my memory from this summary as I was so surprised by @Philip_Thompson 's statement in view of the apparent positive rejection involved of the scientific evidence :
But you're quite right to want more context and I should have dig deeper. Howeever, this seems clear enough - note that this is about 'current advice' and, incidentally, after the well-publicised news of likely change of advice elsewhere in the UK (eg the Scottish Gmt had the day before confirmed it was consulting with the unions etc before bringing in facemasks).
'Alok Sharma says pupils and staff will not be penalised for wearing masks in schools in England Alok Sharma, the business secretary, said school staff or young people would not be penalised for wearing facemasks when schools reopen, although the advice is that they are currently not necessary.
Speaking on the Radio 4 Today programme, Sharma said that the government has followed scientific and medical advice.
“Public Health England does not recommend at the moment [facemasks] in schools... We are always considering the latest advice and evidence but the current advice is that it is not recommended.”'
So a statement they're following the scientific advice ... And then PHE changed their advice.
I do not see the analogy between our elections and the US midterms. Whatever happens, there are unlikely to be any national consequences in the way there can be in America.
Indeed, it's a rather unwelcome analogy considering our "midterms" consist of electing a few councillors to sort the potholes out and will be lucky to see a turnout of 32ish%.
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
The Opposition party to the President tends to win the midterms in the US as they also tend to win the UK midterm council elections, regardless of who wins the next general election, though not always the case eg 2002 in the US or 2017 here after 9/11 or the Brexit vote
Good morning all. So this story has finally made its way into the media:
"Nearly a fifth of UK businesses have asked staff to take a pay cut to shore up the firm's finances and help stave off redundancies, according to a survey by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development "
The Challenger 2 tank fleet was fucked as soon as Heavy Equipment Transport was privatised with KBR. The MoD immediately spied an opportunity to make a quid and subleased most of them to US Army in Europe. There is no point in having MBTs or paying to modernise them if you haven't got the capability to move them where they are needed.
30 ton 8x8 wheeled AFVs are the future for the British Army as they don't (in theory) need HET.
Do we still get our 10-15 minutes of glory before we are obliterated and wiped off the face of Eastern Europe?
Only if you can change the tyre on a Boxer AFV using a jack borrowed from some mum's Qashqai at South Mimms services.
PS I had forgotten the Boxer IS German - even with a union flag painted all over it. Are they worried about RAF air to ground recognition?
LOL, Williamson been sent back onto the airwaves to 'explain' the latest u-turn
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
How can he explain it? Perhaps that its a fiasco, but less than the fiasco we were facing had we sent kids back to school like it was normality.
How is a fiasco?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
What scientific advice? You can't hide behind the scientists any more since the government sidelined the advisors and proclaimed all this was now a political decision. "You will go back normally or we will fine you, it is safe " was almost immediately contradicted by government scientists who were ignored by ministers.
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
What are you wittering on about?
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
Mr Sharma was saying only yesterday that the English gmt was not going to review the matter, ie the matter was closed. That was well after the weekend, new evidence, etc. It was politics to make that decision or to go for the other option - or both.
Comments
That event, a biotech conference attended by 200 people in late February, is now well known as a source of Covid-19 spread very early on in the pandemic.
"America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And the way they’re going, they will lose."
America’s next election, like its last one, is for the Democrats to lose. And they way they’re going, they will lose.
Like Remain before the EU referendum, the Democrats are campaigning with every conceivable institutional advantage.
Like Remain before the referendum, the Democratic elite shows a barely concealed contempt for the undecided, let alone the opposition.
And, like Remain before the referendum, the Democrats have got some of the cleverest people they can find, steering them towards a reckoning with a public that returns their contempt.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/08/25/democrats-repeating-remain-campaigns-errors-2016/
Theresa May romped home to victory in the 2017 local council elections with an 8% swing to the Tories and hundreds of new councillors. A mere month before failing to win a majority at the 2017 GE.
I don't think people vote in council elections in the same way as they do at a GE.
The truth is he only very narrowly won the first time round, when looking at his winning margin in the key states and the EC exaggerated the scale of his victory. I do wonder whether this twin psychological state from supporters / detractors is driving the betting odds towards it being almost a 50-50 election when in reality is nothing of the sort.
..with the world's longest sentence
If (when) he loses his job, a future as a "Just a Minute" contestant awaits (apart from the deviation)
I'd expect the big hitters to start playing in the last fortnight or so but right now there is a clear disparity between the betting odds and the polls.
It looks like an appeal to minorities is going to be big part of the GOP campaign, highlighting that the “BLM movement” is now mostly made up of middle class white kids rioting, as opposed to the principle of not being racist, and Republicans wholeheartedly supports the principle of not being racist.
Here’s our friend Kim Klacik, from last week’s viral video: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8661983/Republican-congressional-candidate-claims-Biden-believes-black-Americans-think-ourselves.html
And here’s an interesting interview with another black Republican standing for Congress in New Jersey (first five or six minutes are about media bias, then it gets more interesting)
https://youtube.com/watch?v=x90yGbvepAk
For Labour the Scottish elections are also important. They need to find a way to get back in the game up here if they are to be genuine contenders to be the next government. At the moment its not clear how they can do that but SKS really should be giving Scotland a lot of his attention.
The rest may be meaningful to the likes of the Lib Dems but means nothing to almost anyone else in comparison.
Most of the UK local elections have the same impact with city or county elections in the US. Funny that.
I am very hopeful, as I was in December, the markets are overreacting.
In contrast who is response for sorting out potholes is not going to affect Parliament meaningfully.
God give me SIndyRef2, but not yet. I suspect it will be unavoidable after May though.
So I'm guessing that pro-Brexit but anti-Tory voters are attracted to the Brexit Party. They fill a void.
Does that make sense to our Welsh posters, or would you give a different explanation?
The scientific advice on masks in schools changed, they're following the science. What is complicated or a fiasco about that?
At present, I expect a rise in Labour's support and a gain of several hundred councillors.
If I were to guess, I'd say the red wall will see a far more modest rise and the south/south-east (where the demographics favour affluent liberal young middle-class voters) will see a disproportionate rise.
Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan will be big winners for Labour but they may lose important ground elsewhere.
* here's a recent article that touches on that:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-sitting-president-was-as-far-behind-as-trump-going-into-the-conventions/
"Undoubtedly, it’s a bullish sign for Biden to be this far ahead of Trump. In fact, since 1968, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the first convention. However, before we get too carried away, the size of Biden’s pre-convention lead is unlikely to hold. After all, two other presidential contenders led by margins similar to Biden’s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush in 2000, but by November their leads had all but evaporated. Carter only narrowly beat Gerald Ford by about 2 points nationally, while Bush won the most highly contested election in modern times, which took the U.S. Supreme Court to sort out."
The teenager's one mask will be mostly used throughout the day and will be going on and then off again several times between lessons and, quite possibly, on the morning and evening bus as well.
Between times, it will be going, maybe in a plastic bag, maybe not, in a pocket with various other accoutrements that will then be contaminated as they come into use. Some masks will get lost around and about. Basically, if we're not careful then at-rest masks, in this particular case, could become as much a mechanism of spread as of prevention.
Ultimately, this is why tissues usurped handkerchiefs some decades ago, but with even disposable masks coming in at 60p a pop (Boots 50 pack price quoted), how will the same logic be applied here?
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/poll-shy-voters-trump-230667
Hope I am wrong.
Are these kids actually secretly working for Trump?
This is owned by that sacked liar Williamson and his sacked liar boss.
The scientific advice on facemasks in schools was changed over the weekend. The government immediately responded. What more do you expect? How is that a fiasco?
Now it isn’t going to be perfect but I suspect that approach is good enough and better than the putting it back in your pocket approach
We had a fair few on here claiming that the riots and disorder would not help Trump because it wasn't showing up in the polls. It looks like the penny is starting to drop.
He's been president for a while now, so I just don't see where his extra support is going to come from. With a reduced 3rd party vote I expect he needs to get to 48% as a minimum even to weave a victory out of the electoral college.
When will people learn that you cannot force or coerce someone into agreeing with you or doing what you want them to do.
Trotsky: A revolution is directly made by a minority.
And yes you need to be forceful to get change. It doesnt follow that every version of being forceful is effective, like yelling at people in a restaurant who might well already support you with idiotic racial slogans.
Or do you think theres no difference in efficacy between protest methods?
It's not a choice between silence and polite disagreement and thuggery. There are other options, which people use to great effect.
The other way he will win is by depressing the Black vote by highlighting Defund the Police and asking what the Democrats have done for the Black community. If he can drive down turnout in places like Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee, then he can keep PA, MI and WI.
There was nowhere else for more support to come from.
I really don't understand US politics - but have backed Trump to win because as stated yesterday a lot of his bonkersness is in the price and as someone else also said, he is "our" madman and if you take him out of the equation (!) then it seems he has delivered, Covid notwithstanding, on his economic promises.
But you and @Philip_Thompson make persuasive points.
RCP also has Biden's lead in battleground states coming down again. Trafalgar has Trump up by 1 in Wisconsin in the latest poll.
As for the penny dropping, look at the reaction to scenes like the demonstrators screaming in the face of someone who won't do what they want. People are realising that doesn't play well with voters.
45% reduction in Dover Calais traffic
Food, Medicines, Fuel and Chemicals shortages
Water Rationing and Power Cuts
Army backup for police to maintain law and order
Air drops of Food to the Channel Islands to bypass Royal Navy / EU Fishing disputes
Sounds Fab! And with minimal effort being made by the UK government either to reach a deal or to prepare for the mechanics of no deal, this is going to be fun*
Very little else.
Also you're right about black turnout being crucial, especially in Wisconsin, so the Dems need to up their game on getting out the vote.
I think Arizona could end up crucial to a Biden victory this time. The senate race looks very good for the Dems and the demographics will really help him this year, which adds another path to victory.
In my view at least repeatedly violent and abusive agents of the state extrajudicially killing or paralysing people is worse than protests.
The US isn't the UK. That shooting, like countless other shootings, would not have occurred in this country.
30 ton 8x8 wheeled AFVs are the future for the British Army as they don't (in theory) need HET.
One is someone who was never expected to become leader or taken seriously even within his party, an elderly man who had a lifetime not contributing to frontline politics, was dismissed even by his own side as a crank when he put his name forward, but got almost zealotry support from his supporters. Even after becoming leader has seen divisions within the party with former prominent supporters of the party suggesting to vote for the opposition because this leader was beyond the pale. Denounced as clearly racist by his opponents and many from the same party too and very popular with racists. Happy to share a platform with racists.
The other is President Trump/Jeremy Corbyn.
There will also be Police and Crime commissioner elections.
It should also be noted that in 2017 the Tories got 38% and Labour just 27% at the county elections compared to 42% and 40% at the general election while the LDs got 18% compared to just 7% at the general election. The LDs therefore did much better at county than national level and will seek to expand on that county council success next year, the Tories will seek to hold their seats and Labour to make gains too
Getting rid of guns in the US would require an amendment to the constitution and those are difficult enough for fairly in controversial amendments.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/25/boris-johnson-drops-advice-against-face-mask-use-in-english-schools
But you're quite right to want more context and I should have dig deeper. Howeever, this seems clear enough - note that this is about 'current advice' and, incidentally, after the well-publicised news of likely change of advice elsewhere in the UK (eg the Scottish Gmt had the day before confirmed it was consulting with the unions etc before bringing in facemasks).
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2020/aug/25/uk-coronavirus-live-face-covering-rules-for-students-should-be-kept-under-review-says-union?page=with:block-5f44c04a8f08c26134253833
'Alok Sharma says pupils and staff will not be penalised for wearing masks in schools in England
Alok Sharma, the business secretary, said school staff or young people would not be penalised for wearing facemasks when schools reopen, although the advice is that they are currently not necessary.
Speaking on the Radio 4 Today programme, Sharma said that the government has followed scientific and medical advice.
“Public Health England does not recommend at the moment [facemasks] in schools... We are always considering the latest advice and evidence but the current advice is that it is not recommended.”'
So what's the issue?
"Nearly a fifth of UK businesses have asked staff to take a pay cut to shore up the firm's finances and help stave off redundancies, according to a survey by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development "
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53751316
Our pay is due to be restored in October, but who knows. And of course we still had redundancies on top of the pay cut.
Not having to pay for travel has partly offset the loss, but it will need quite a few more months of WFH to make up the difference.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/01/21/rheinmetall-bae-systems-launch-joint-venture-for-military-vehicles/
https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1298366988360744961?s=20