I cannot recall the CMOs having anything to do with Barnard Castle
These people actively want to harm our children with their claptrap
Perhaps Dr Van-Tam should lead on this, as he had the balls to effectively say Cummings was wrong and the rules did apply to him and his case?
There is a much wider issue here than party politics
All schools across the UK are going back full time, all the CMO's have endorsed it, and Sturgeon (SNP), Drakeford (Labour), Foster ( DUP) and Boris (Conservative) are at one, in demanding it
And for once all the politicians are correct and I will hold no quarter with anyone who wants to interrupt the process and thereby damage a generation of our children
Did many shops transfer out of the high street onto Teesside Park? I know this happened in Sheffield, but from what I could see Stockton had different shops anyway. To wrap up my comments on this we then had the hoo hah about hotels. Boro has chain hotels in the centre of town, with demand outstripping supply. Stockton - in the middle of a massive regeneration of the town centre - decides to build a chain hotel in the town centre.
No say the Thornaby Independents, put the hotel on Teesside Park (cos its in Thornaby). Never mind that it would be in the middle of nowhere and wouldn't help with regeneration it had to be in OUR town. Cos apparently Thornaby folk don't cross the bridge into Stockton as there's Trolls under it.
I'll shut up now. Did I say that I hate local politics?
Teesside Park took the customers away then over time the shops disappear.
As for the hotel that Hilton us a white elephant. As someone who travels a lot it fails every rule when I'm picking a hotel for work - I won't drive into a town centre for a hotel and I can't think of anyone else who would.
To a large extent it reminds me of an old Travelodge I used once in Wakefield. It closed during Travelodges first set of closures as no one would drive to a town centre hotel.
And yet just 2 miles away the demand for town centre hotels is such that they opened a Premier Inn literally next to the Jurys Inn which is across from the Holiday Inn Express. I stay in a lot of urban hotels - would rather be near somewhere than out of town.
The problem I see for the Lib Dems I am afraid - and I say this having voted for them in December, albeit tactically, I did not support Jo Swinson - is that are there really enough voters that are likely to think "I really don't want the Tories, so I'll vote Lib Dem" which by implication means they want PM Starmer?
Why not just vote Labour then?
Because they don't want Labour. Under FPTP we will end up with a Tory or Labour government of some form or another. Moderating those with other parties is what happens when people don't want either.
What will become of the Union Jack if Scotland secedes? It’s a cracking flag.
Maybe the blue can be taken out and the green of Wales finally added.
Don't forget to leave a space for orange when Ireland inevitably begs to rejoin the (r)UK.
I have to say, that is one of the more odd things I see Brexiteers saying, that Ireland will be next to leave and they will want to rejoin the UK. Very strange
Indeed. The Irish government minister interviewed on R4 last week was very clear about this. Ireland feels it has benefited considerably from EU membership, and may be even better positioned after Brexit begins to hit the UK.
I don't think Nevada is comfortably blue but for two elections in a row now Nevada has outperformed the polling for the Dems.
In 2016 the polling average had it as a narrow Trump win, in 2018 the polling average was a tie (with a 7 point GOP lead at one point) and the Dems won by 5.
The key thing to look at is voter registration. It maps to votes cast in presidential election.
I think the Democrats are ridiculosuly complaeent.
They are relying on pumping up turning amongst Democrats that didn't turn out for Hillary in 2016.
Biden also needs to leave his comfort zone and target WWC floating voters in the swing states *directly* as well.
So far, I see little sign of that.
I'm seeing a number of independent and left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool) saying that people are moving away from the Dems, because of their implicit support for what's going on in Portland and other cities, as well as the wider culture war stuff, that they seem unwilling to condemn in order to keep their left wing on side.
There could be a lot of non-voters among the centrists, who see two extreme positions and can't be bothered with it - but there's also an opportunity for both parties to try attract these swing voters in the next two months. Turnout was barely 50% last time out, there's tens of millions of these mostly non-political centrists, and whichever party reaches out to them could be rewarded.
I think the main Presidential race is closer than most people think.
Agreed (I don't know what happened to my spelling on the previous post either!)
I don't think Nevada is comfortably blue but for two elections in a row now Nevada has outperformed the polling for the Dems.
In 2016 the polling average had it as a narrow Trump win, in 2018 the polling average was a tie (with a 7 point GOP lead at one point) and the Dems won by 5.
The key thing to look at is voter registration. It maps to votes cast in presidential election.
I think the Democrats are ridiculosuly complaeent.
They are relying on pumping up turning amongst Democrats that didn't turn out for Hillary in 2016.
Biden also needs to leave his comfort zone and target WWC floating voters in the swing states *directly* as well.
So far, I see little sign of that.
I agree its astonishing how complacent the dems are. And not just with working class white voters.
I wonder if this the election where we find out BLM do not represent minority communities in America, in Britain, or anywhere else.
My wife comes from Rochdale. We hadn't been back for ages, though, until a couple of years ago when we were advised to do so and see the improvement in the Town Centre. And it is a great deal more open, cleaner and fresher than when she last saw it, in the late 80's when her parents moved away.
They ripped out a lot of the decking over the Roch in the town centre. Which then allowed the river to flood the town centre a few years ago! Demolishing local "landmarks" like the Black Box and bus station are positives, but as with the removed decking it did lead to just a windswept open area.
As for the latest scheme of "lets build a shopping centre" the 70s shopping centre is half empty. The 80s shopping centre is 3/4 empty. And on the main shopping street what isn't shuttered is charity or vape shops.
Like I said, it's still not perfect, but it is vastly better than when I remember it as a kid in the 90s. I don't live there now, but visit every now and then, and I have been pleasantly surprised the last few times. Yorkshire Street is still shit though, granted.
I think wider in the town there's been an improvement as well - the new 6th form college is better than the old one and there seems to be a mild gentrification going on in some places, if house prices are anything to go off.
The problem I see for the Lib Dems I am afraid - and I say this having voted for them in December, albeit tactically, I did not support Jo Swinson - is that are there really enough voters that are likely to think "I really don't want the Tories, so I'll vote Lib Dem" which by implication means they want PM Starmer?
Why not just vote Labour then?
Because they don't want Labour. Under FPTP we will end up with a Tory or Labour government of some form or another. Moderating those with other parties is what happens when people don't want either.
Are there lots of voters like this? Bearing in mind the Tory majority?
I cannot recall the CMOs having anything to do with Barnard Castle
These people actively want to harm our children with their claptrap
Perhaps Dr Van-Tam should lead on this, as he had the balls to effectively say Cummings was wrong and the rules did apply to him and his case?
There is a much wider issue here than party politics
All schools across the UK are going back full time, all the CMO's have endorsed it, and Sturgeon (SNP), Drakeford (Labour), Foster ( DUP) and Boris (Conservative) are at one, in demanding it
And for once all the politicians are correct and I will hold no quarter with anyone who wants to interrupt the process and thereby damage a generation of our children
We cannot know that the pols are correct - we have to hope that they are.
This time round, Biden is rated around 55% or so. I think 538's model is more correct than people give it credit for, and immediately prior to the election Clinton (And Biden now) are both rated around 73%.
The markets have gone from underestimating Trump last time round to overestimating him this time round. It's precisely the same sort of reasoning that landed big value on the Tories in 2019, and I said so prior to the election in my piece.
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
When it comes to discrimination, you don't get to pick and choose which forms of descrimination are OK.
He’s a discriminating discriminator. He only helps politically correct minorities.
I think we do need to remember the whole Corbyn project was built on the idea that a few rich bastards are creaming off everything and that everybody else hated them and would vote to punish them. And in his rather simple mind Jews are rich bastards. We saw that with the ADL video tricking Labour supporters into condemning Corbyn by saying his quotes were from Johnson.
The problem was this was based on a fundamental misunderstanding. His target of ‘rich bastards’ was effectively ‘anyone who owned their own home.’ A bit like Stalin’s kulaks. There were no kulaks in the Soviet Union in 1928. They had been killed, or fled, in the Civil War. But Stalin pretended there were so he could go after all the peasants.
But unlike Stalin, Corbyn got his comeuppance as his targets could - and did - vote against him.
Which left him as a racist greedy bastard who doesn’t understand politics or economics.
What will become of the Union Jack if Scotland secedes? It’s a cracking flag.
Maybe the blue can be taken out and the green of Wales finally added.
The cross of St Patrick remained, but it would be hard to justify keeping the Saltire.
Perhaps a style like the white ensign, but with a Welsh flag in the top corner rather than a Union Flag?
A number of other flags such as Austalia and NZ may want to update too.
Conventionally the Australian Flag needs a referendum to change it. Australian PM John Howard got floored by a journalist on this.
The back story: A minority of Australians want the flag changed as "the Union Flag represents the colonialist past". Howard always said that there needs to be a referendum if the flag were to be changed. The large star (the Federation Star) in the Australian flag has 7 points representing the 6 states and one point for all the territories. In 1998 or so Northern Territory had a territory-wide referendum whether to become a state. In the run up to the Northern Territory decision, the Journalist asked: If the Northern Territory becomes a state, will we be having a referendum just to put another point on the Federation Star?
Howard realised that any quick answer would be putting his foot in it, and it was clear he had not even thought of this "problem", so he had not thought of how to approach answering it. He ended up just blustering "that's an interesting question".
In this case kicking the can worked, as NT voted to remain a territory.
This time round, Biden is rated around 55% or so. I think 538's model is more correct than people give it credit for, and immediately prior to the election Clinton (And Biden now) are both rated around 73%.
The markets have gone from underestimating Trump last time round to overestimating him this time round. It's precisely the same sort of reasoning that landed big value on the Tories in 2019, and I said so prior to the election in my piece.
There's a disparity between the recent polling and the betting markets. I think the betting markets are more accurate, and there's a shy Republican effect in the polling.
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
In other news, Rush Limbaugh's a centrist.
'After Sanders dropped out of the race, Rogan said he would "rather vote for Trump than Biden."'
'Rubin is generally described as conservative and libertarian. He often describes himself as a "classical liberal."'
'According to Politico, Pool's "views on issues including social media bias and immigration often align with conservatives'"
The problem I see for the Lib Dems I am afraid - and I say this having voted for them in December, albeit tactically, I did not support Jo Swinson - is that are there really enough voters that are likely to think "I really don't want the Tories, so I'll vote Lib Dem" which by implication means they want PM Starmer?
Why not just vote Labour then?
Because they don't want Labour. Under FPTP we will end up with a Tory or Labour government of some form or another. Moderating those with other parties is what happens when people don't want either.
Are there lots of voters like this? Bearing in mind the Tory majority?
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
In other news, Rush Limbaugh's a centrist.
'After Sanders dropped out of the race, Rogan said he would "rather vote for Trump than Biden."'
'Rubin is generally described as conservative and libertarian. He often describes himself as a "classical liberal."'
'According to Politico, Pool's "views on issues including social media bias and immigration often align with conservatives'"
Three natural Democrat voters with a media profile, none of whom are likely to vote for them this November...
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
You are right -- Trump vs Biden is not a foregone conclusion. But all the polling suggests that were the election held today, it would be a Biden landslide. The reason it is not a foregone conclusion is the election is not today and Trump has a little over two months to turn it round, starting with the GOP convention that begins today.
No. That's Tim, a passionate Labour but not Corbynist person formerly of this parish.
When he was here he was obsessed a bit with George Osborne whom he mocked as a great Strategist. After he left this site his Tweets kept getting quoted for a long time with names like GOsborneGenius.
This time round, Biden is rated around 55% or so. I think 538's model is more correct than people give it credit for, and immediately prior to the election Clinton (And Biden now) are both rated around 73%.
The markets have gone from underestimating Trump last time round to overestimating him this time round. It's precisely the same sort of reasoning that landed big value on the Tories in 2019, and I said so prior to the election in my piece.
There's a disparity between the recent polling and the betting markets. I think the betting markets are more accurate, and there's a shy Republican effect in the polling.
The problem I see for the Lib Dems I am afraid - and I say this having voted for them in December, albeit tactically, I did not support Jo Swinson - is that are there really enough voters that are likely to think "I really don't want the Tories, so I'll vote Lib Dem" which by implication means they want PM Starmer?
Why not just vote Labour then?
Because they don't want Labour. Under FPTP we will end up with a Tory or Labour government of some form or another. Moderating those with other parties is what happens when people don't want either.
Are there lots of voters like this? Bearing in mind the Tory majority?
11.5% of the population in Dec 2019.
And there could so easily have been 44 Lib Dem MPs, apparently.
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
You are right -- Trump vs Biden is not a foregone conclusion. But all the polling suggests that were the election held today, it would be a Biden landslide. The reason it is not a foregone conclusion is the election is not today and Trump has a little over two months to turn it round, starting with the GOP convention that begins today.
He is going to be desperate to get the vaccine injected into Americans so he can hail ultimate victory over the virus before November.
I cannot recall the CMOs having anything to do with Barnard Castle
These people actively want to harm our children with their claptrap
Perhaps Dr Van-Tam should lead on this, as he had the balls to effectively say Cummings was wrong and the rules did apply to him and his case?
There is a much wider issue here than party politics
All schools across the UK are going back full time, all the CMO's have endorsed it, and Sturgeon (SNP), Drakeford (Labour), Foster ( DUP) and Boris (Conservative) are at one, in demanding it
And for once all the politicians are correct and I will hold no quarter with anyone who wants to interrupt the process and thereby damage a generation of our children
We cannot know that the pols are correct - we have to hope that they are.
They are correct in their determination to get schools back and this should not be a political divide
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
In other news, Rush Limbaugh's a centrist.
'After Sanders dropped out of the race, Rogan said he would "rather vote for Trump than Biden."'
'Rubin is generally described as conservative and libertarian. He often describes himself as a "classical liberal."'
'According to Politico, Pool's "views on issues including social media bias and immigration often align with conservatives'"
Three natural Democrat voters with a media profile, none of whom are likely to vote for them this November...
Punters who are only attracted to the Dems in the form of Sanders or Gabbard are not natural Democrat voters.
None of them were ever going to vote for the Dems under Biden, therefore any suggestions they make about voters moving away from the Democrats cos of X fail the bullshit test.
No. That's Tim, a passionate Labour but not Corbynist person formerly of this parish.
When he was here he was obsessed a bit with George Osborne whom he mocked as a great Strategist. After he left this site his Tweets kept getting quoted for a long time with names like GOsborneGenius.
What will become of the Union Jack if Scotland secedes? It’s a cracking flag.
Maybe the blue can be taken out and the green of Wales finally added.
The cross of St Patrick remained, but it would be hard to justify keeping the Saltire.
Perhaps a style like the white ensign, but with a Welsh flag in the top corner rather than a Union Flag?
A number of other flags such as Austalia and NZ may want to update too.
Conventionally the Australian Flag needs a referendum to change it. Australian PM John Howard got floored by a journalist on this.
The back story: A minority of Australians want the flag changed as "the Union Flag represents the colonialist past". Howard always said that there needs to be a referendum if the flag were to be changed. The large star (the Federation Star) in the Australian flag has 7 points representing the 6 states and one point for all the territories. In 1998 or so Northern Territory had a territory-wide referendum whether to become a state. In the run up to the Northern Territory decision, the Journalist asked: If the Northern Territory becomes a state, will we be having a referendum just to put another point on the Federation Star?
Howard realised that any quick answer would be putting his foot in it, and it was clear he had not even thought of this "problem", so he had not thought of how to approach answering it. He ended up just blustering "that's an interesting question".
In this case kicking the can worked, as NT voted to remain a territory.
If you've not thought of a question before then simply saying "that's an interesting question" isn't really blustering. Trying to fudge an answer is the usual bluster.
John Howard's Republic referendum campaign was a model of how to deal with a referendum if you don't want it to pass. A strong monarchist he didn't want Australia to become a Republic but the issue was strongly supported by some so he got a political convention to agree what form of Republic Australia might take then out that to a Referendum versus the status quo. Leading to people picking holes in the model chosen.
The difference between that and a simple referendum on the status quo with no alternative pre chosen like Cameron did is immense. Cameron really should have spoken to John Howard for advice pre Brexit referendum.
While I no longer have “skin in the game” as the Americans would say, I hope Ed Davey wins.
The May 2021 elections will be a useful test of opinion albeit they will be “local” contests with all the associated caveats. The County contests in some areas may be deferred if proposed local Government reforms are enacted.
The equivalent elections in 2017 were at the high water mark of Theresa May’s popularity so there may be some problems for the Conservatives defending some of those gains.
This time round, Biden is rated around 55% or so. I think 538's model is more correct than people give it credit for, and immediately prior to the election Clinton (And Biden now) are both rated around 73%.
The markets have gone from underestimating Trump last time round to overestimating him this time round. It's precisely the same sort of reasoning that landed big value on the Tories in 2019, and I said so prior to the election in my piece.
There's a disparity between the recent polling and the betting markets. I think the betting markets are more accurate, and there's a shy Republican effect in the polling.
I cannot recall the CMOs having anything to do with Barnard Castle
These people actively want to harm our children with their claptrap
Perhaps Dr Van-Tam should lead on this, as he had the balls to effectively say Cummings was wrong and the rules did apply to him and his case?
There is a much wider issue here than party politics
All schools across the UK are going back full time, all the CMO's have endorsed it, and Sturgeon (SNP), Drakeford (Labour), Foster ( DUP) and Boris (Conservative) are at one, in demanding it
And for once all the politicians are correct and I will hold no quarter with anyone who wants to interrupt the process and thereby damage a generation of our children
How you can type a list of XYZ as surnames and then Boris is beyond me, it’s disrespectful to XYZ as a minimum. It’s possibly understandable to refer to Johnson as Boris when only talking about him but not in conjunction with others.
No. That's Tim, a passionate Labour but not Corbynist person formerly of this parish.
When he was here he was obsessed a bit with George Osborne whom he mocked as a great Strategist. After he left this site his Tweets kept getting quoted for a long time with names like GOsborneGenius.
No. That's Tim, a passionate Labour but not Corbynist person formerly of this parish.
When he was here he was obsessed a bit with George Osborne whom he mocked as a great Strategist. After he left this site his Tweets kept getting quoted for a long time with names like GOsborneGenius.
This time round, Biden is rated around 55% or so. I think 538's model is more correct than people give it credit for, and immediately prior to the election Clinton (And Biden now) are both rated around 73%.
The markets have gone from underestimating Trump last time round to overestimating him this time round. It's precisely the same sort of reasoning that landed big value on the Tories in 2019, and I said so prior to the election in my piece.
There's a disparity between the recent polling and the betting markets. I think the betting markets are more accurate, and there's a shy Republican effect in the polling.
The "Shy Trump" effect might be underestimating the Republicans in the polls, but I cannot see it bringing Trump more votes than in 2016, because almost all "Shy Trumpers" were also "Trumpers" shy or not in 2016.
If the Dems can get all the "natural democrat voters" who abstained in 2016 in four or five key states to vote, then Biden should win it. But I do agree with one poster below (sorry I forget who), the campaign should now start attracting the central floating voters as well, as they shouldn't just rely on the 2016-stay-at-homers.
Counterfactual: what if Farron had lost to Normal Lamb in 2015? He would likely not have been forced out post 2017, and had a much more nuanced view on the EU. Might the LibDems have managed a more meaningful recovery in the intervening period?
In Dec 2019, the Lib Dems got 11.5% of the vote, up 4.2%, the best result since 2010. In the Euros they came second nationally. Obviously not good enough in FPTP, but a start of a meaningful recovery. There are a lot of potential LD voters out there.
I voted Lamb in 2015, and Davey in 2019, so don't have a great track record in backing the right candidate. I voted Davey again.
History would suggest Foxy that maybe you do have a great track record in backing the right candidate to be fair. Maybe the issue is your fellow members haven't backed the right candidate previously?
Simply substituting welsh green for Scottish blue might be the way to go with a reformed union flag. Unlike Scotland, Northern Ireland and England there's never been an explicitly welsh element to the Union flag as it was folded up into the Kingdom of England which bore the St George's cross.
Counterfactual: what if Farron had lost to Normal Lamb in 2015? He would likely not have been forced out post 2017, and had a much more nuanced view on the EU. Might the LibDems have managed a more meaningful recovery in the intervening period?
In Dec 2019, the Lib Dems got 11.5% of the vote, up 4.2%, the best result since 2010. In the Euros they came second nationally. Obviously not good enough in FPTP, but a start of a meaningful recovery. There are a lot of potential LD voters out there.
I voted Lamb in 2015, and Davey in 2019, so don't have a great track record in backing the right candidate. I voted Davey again.
History would suggest Foxy that maybe you do have a great track record in backing the right candidate to be fair. Maybe the issue is your fellow members haven't backed the right candidate previously?
I find that I have the same problem at General Elections too...
No. That's Tim, a passionate Labour but not Corbynist person formerly of this parish.
When he was here he was obsessed a bit with George Osborne whom he mocked as a great Strategist. After he left this site his Tweets kept getting quoted for a long time with names like GOsborneGenius.
Simply substituting welsh green for Scottish blue might be the way to go with a reformed union flag. Unlike Scotland, Northern Ireland and England there's never been an explicitly welsh element to the Union flag as it was folded up into the Kingdom of England which bore the St George's cross.
What would a cross of St Andrew with a green background symbolise?
@Sandpit references the Kim Klacik video and it is of course compelling though it’s long on problems and very short on practical solutions.
I’m in Newham and most local elections we get a local man or woman who rails against Labour control and blames the Council for everything that’s wrong and stands as a Conservative and gets squashed.
It’s not just about problems (that’s easy) but the one-sided portrayal of those problems. Is the Labour run Council responsible for Newham’s problems? Yes but you also have to blame successive Westminster Governments for changes to legislation and cuts in funding as well as successive London Mayors.
The trouble is if you blame the Party under whose flag you now wish to get elected for the very real problems you are trying to resolve, you won’t get very far.
Independents can do this at local level but ultimately in an adversarial political environment blaming everyone without having any solutions is futile.
Did many shops transfer out of the high street onto Teesside Park? I know this happened in Sheffield, but from what I could see Stockton had different shops anyway. To wrap up my comments on this we then had the hoo hah about hotels. Boro has chain hotels in the centre of town, with demand outstripping supply. Stockton - in the middle of a massive regeneration of the town centre - decides to build a chain hotel in the town centre.
No say the Thornaby Independents, put the hotel on Teesside Park (cos its in Thornaby). Never mind that it would be in the middle of nowhere and wouldn't help with regeneration it had to be in OUR town. Cos apparently Thornaby folk don't cross the bridge into Stockton as there's Trolls under it.
I'll shut up now. Did I say that I hate local politics?
Teesside Park took the customers away then over time the shops disappear.
As for the hotel that Hilton us a white elephant. As someone who travels a lot it fails every rule when I'm picking a hotel for work - I won't drive into a town centre for a hotel and I can't think of anyone else who would.
To a large extent it reminds me of an old Travelodge I used once in Wakefield. It closed during Travelodges first set of closures as no one would drive to a town centre hotel.
And yet just 2 miles away the demand for town centre hotels is such that they opened a Premier Inn literally next to the Jurys Inn which is across from the Holiday Inn Express. I stay in a lot of urban hotels - would rather be near somewhere than out of town.
I agree - why would you visit a town and deliberately stay somewhere outside it? Unless parking is the issue, I don't get it at all.
What will become of the Union Jack if Scotland secedes? It’s a cracking flag.
Maybe the blue can be taken out and the green of Wales finally added.
The cross of St Patrick remained, but it would be hard to justify keeping the Saltire.
Perhaps a style like the white ensign, but with a Welsh flag in the top corner rather than a Union Flag?
A number of other flags such as Austalia and NZ may want to update too.
Conventionally the Australian Flag needs a referendum to change it. Australian PM John Howard got floored by a journalist on this.
The back story: A minority of Australians want the flag changed as "the Union Flag represents the colonialist past". Howard always said that there needs to be a referendum if the flag were to be changed. The large star (the Federation Star) in the Australian flag has 7 points representing the 6 states and one point for all the territories. In 1998 or so Northern Territory had a territory-wide referendum whether to become a state. In the run up to the Northern Territory decision, the Journalist asked: If the Northern Territory becomes a state, will we be having a referendum just to put another point on the Federation Star?
Howard realised that any quick answer would be putting his foot in it, and it was clear he had not even thought of this "problem", so he had not thought of how to approach answering it. He ended up just blustering "that's an interesting question".
In this case kicking the can worked, as NT voted to remain a territory.
If you've not thought of a question before then simply saying "that's an interesting question" isn't really blustering. Trying to fudge an answer is the usual bluster.
John Howard's Republic referendum campaign was a model of how to deal with a referendum if you don't want it to pass. A strong monarchist he didn't want Australia to become a Republic but the issue was strongly supported by some so he got a political convention to agree what form of Republic Australia might take then out that to a Referendum versus the status quo. Leading to people picking holes in the model chosen.
The difference between that and a simple referendum on the status quo with no alternative pre chosen like Cameron did is immense. Cameron really should have spoken to John Howard for advice pre Brexit referendum.
I totally agree with your comment on the Australian Republic/Monacrhy referendum, and I have posted exatly this several times on PB in the past. I saw it first hand, as I was living in Australia, in Howard's constituency, at that time.
This time round, Biden is rated around 55% or so. I think 538's model is more correct than people give it credit for, and immediately prior to the election Clinton (And Biden now) are both rated around 73%.
The markets have gone from underestimating Trump last time round to overestimating him this time round. It's precisely the same sort of reasoning that landed big value on the Tories in 2019, and I said so prior to the election in my piece.
There's a disparity between the recent polling and the betting markets. I think the betting markets are more accurate, and there's a shy Republican effect in the polling.
The "Shy Trump" effect might be underestimating the Republicans in the polls, but I cannot see it bringing Trump more votes than in 2016, because almost all "Shy Trumpers" were also "Trumpers" shy or not in 2016.
If the Dems can get all the "natural democrat voters" who abstained in 2016 in four or five key states to vote, then Biden should win it. But I do agree with one poster below (sorry I forget who), the campaign should now start attracting the central floating voters as well, as they shouldn't just rely on the 2016-stay-at-homers.
Agreed. The Trump victory last time was much closer in reality than it was in the EC, with several states going red by very small margins.
If Biden can get out a few percent of those who didn't vote in marginal states last time, rather than vote for Hillary, he's the clear favorite. The largest single target demographic in the US election is the stayed-at-home-in-2016 voter, for both campaigns.
How far are these local elections actually happening? They're being cancelled in Surrey, the excuse being that they're thinking about local government reform, and the same reform is being rolled out across England next month, abolishing borough councils. Won't they cancell all the other shire elections in England while they're at it?
What will become of the Union Jack if Scotland secedes? It’s a cracking flag.
Maybe the blue can be taken out and the green of Wales finally added.
The cross of St Patrick remained, but it would be hard to justify keeping the Saltire.
Perhaps a style like the white ensign, but with a Welsh flag in the top corner rather than a Union Flag?
A number of other flags such as Austalia and NZ may want to update too.
Conventionally the Australian Flag needs a referendum to change it. Australian PM John Howard got floored by a journalist on this.
The back story: A minority of Australians want the flag changed as "the Union Flag represents the colonialist past". Howard always said that there needs to be a referendum if the flag were to be changed. The large star (the Federation Star) in the Australian flag has 7 points representing the 6 states and one point for all the territories. In 1998 or so Northern Territory had a territory-wide referendum whether to become a state. In the run up to the Northern Territory decision, the Journalist asked: If the Northern Territory becomes a state, will we be having a referendum just to put another point on the Federation Star?
Howard realised that any quick answer would be putting his foot in it, and it was clear he had not even thought of this "problem", so he had not thought of how to approach answering it. He ended up just blustering "that's an interesting question".
In this case kicking the can worked, as NT voted to remain a territory.
If you've not thought of a question before then simply saying "that's an interesting question" isn't really blustering. Trying to fudge an answer is the usual bluster.
John Howard's Republic referendum campaign was a model of how to deal with a referendum if you don't want it to pass. A strong monarchist he didn't want Australia to become a Republic but the issue was strongly supported by some so he got a political convention to agree what form of Republic Australia might take then out that to a Referendum versus the status quo. Leading to people picking holes in the model chosen.
The difference between that and a simple referendum on the status quo with no alternative pre chosen like Cameron did is immense. Cameron really should have spoken to John Howard for advice pre Brexit referendum.
I totally agree with your comment on the Australian Republic/Monacrhy referendum, and I have posted exatly this several times on PB in the past. I saw it first hand, as I was living in Australia, in Howard's constituency, at that time.
Oh that's a funny coincidence. I was living in Victoria at the time so saw it first hand too.
I cannot recall the CMOs having anything to do with Barnard Castle
These people actively want to harm our children with their claptrap
Perhaps Dr Van-Tam should lead on this, as he had the balls to effectively say Cummings was wrong and the rules did apply to him and his case?
There is a much wider issue here than party politics
All schools across the UK are going back full time, all the CMO's have endorsed it, and Sturgeon (SNP), Drakeford (Labour), Foster ( DUP) and Boris (Conservative) are at one, in demanding it
And for once all the politicians are correct and I will hold no quarter with anyone who wants to interrupt the process and thereby damage a generation of our children
We cannot know that the pols are correct - we have to hope that they are.
They are correct in their determination to get schools back and this should not be a political divide
But the responsible authorities for England seem to be answering the wrong question; I don't know about the others.
The key thing about reopening schools fully is all the boring stuff. How do you get kids and staff to and from school. How closely sealed do the bubbles have to be? (Extending the primary model of one teacher with one class all the time is the most biosecure, normally secondaries have a jumble of different classes with different teachers; what's the right compromise?) What do you do about resources and marking? How do you handle staff and pupil absence? Changing for PE lessons? Local shutdowns? Masks or no masks?
All of these questions have answers, of a sort. Not perfect, but reasonable compromises. The trouble is that this government governs in primary colours, hates boring detail and resents being questioned. So those answers don't really exist, in England anyway. Rather than a coherent plan, we have something that has the potential to fall apart in about week 3, if not the first time a cheeky Year 9 starts coughing in a lesson and saying they've suddenly lost their sense of smell. Coupled with the usual sloganising. Because slogans is what this government does best.
And those who point this out get accused of wanting to damage a generation of our children.
Summer holiday on the Wight looking a bit grey and drizzly.
I was there a couple of weeks ago with just the faintest breeze and we were only just able to get under sail.
That said, just back from a week in Turkey. Fantastic. Super-hot, slight wobble when "Croatia Today" somehow thought that both Turkey and Croatia were due to be included on the quarantine list but all was well in the end.
a number of independent and left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
The edgelord demographic is much less prevalent in the general population than they are on Twitter.
Biden's super-power is ignoring these people and going straight to the actual swing voters, like elderly white people in the mid-west and educated suburban conservatives.
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
You are right -- Trump vs Biden is not a foregone conclusion. But all the polling suggests that were the election held today, it would be a Biden landslide. The reason it is not a foregone conclusion is the election is not today and Trump has a little over two months to turn it round, starting with the GOP convention that begins today.
He is going to be desperate to get the vaccine injected into Americans so he can hail ultimate victory over the virus before November.
From Trump's point of view the ideal timing would be long enough before the election to start a modest vaccination programme in most states, but not so early that vaccinated people start getting COVID-19 because the vaccine has been rushed through at break-neck speed.
Simply substituting welsh green for Scottish blue might be the way to go with a reformed union flag. Unlike Scotland, Northern Ireland and England there's never been an explicitly welsh element to the Union flag as it was folded up into the Kingdom of England which bore the St George's cross.
The blue is important for the look of the flag imo. If Scotland secedes it should remain there. It would also remind us of the factual history. Wouldn't iScotland be a member of the Commonwealth? The flag of Hawaii keeps the union flag in the corner.
How far are these local elections actually happening? They're being cancelled in Surrey, the excuse being that they're thinking about local government reform, and the same reform is being rolled out across England next month, abolishing borough councils. Won't they cancell all the other shire elections in England while they're at it?
I would presume where the two tier structure still operates they will be cancelled pending restructure into either a small number of unitaries or a single Mega-Council.
Where this has happened I don’t see why elections can’t proceed as scheduled,
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
You are right -- Trump vs Biden is not a foregone conclusion. But all the polling suggests that were the election held today, it would be a Biden landslide. The reason it is not a foregone conclusion is the election is not today and Trump has a little over two months to turn it round, starting with the GOP convention that begins today.
He is going to be desperate to get the vaccine injected into Americans so he can hail ultimate victory over the virus before November.
Will bleach do? Or maybe V. Putin could supply millions of doses of his untested vaccine?
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
You are right -- Trump vs Biden is not a foregone conclusion. But all the polling suggests that were the election held today, it would be a Biden landslide. The reason it is not a foregone conclusion is the election is not today and Trump has a little over two months to turn it round, starting with the GOP convention that begins today.
He is going to be desperate to get the vaccine injected into Americans so he can hail ultimate victory over the virus before November.
Will bleach do? Or maybe V. Putin could supply millions of doses of his untested vaccine?
The latter would be preferable, as the negatives of injecting bleach become apparent somewhat sooner.
That map is meaningless without knowing the underlying numbers. The +100% areas could be moving from 1 to 2 cases, while the -50% areas could be moving from 500 to 250 cases.
left-leaning commentators (the likes of Joe Rogan, Dave Rubin and Tim Pool)
Lol.
Three people who all discussed their support for the aims of Bernie Sanders, yet don't want now to vote for the people who are supporting riots and hounding people out of their jobs for expressing an opinion.
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
In other news, Rush Limbaugh's a centrist.
'After Sanders dropped out of the race, Rogan said he would "rather vote for Trump than Biden."'
'Rubin is generally described as conservative and libertarian. He often describes himself as a "classical liberal."'
'According to Politico, Pool's "views on issues including social media bias and immigration often align with conservatives'"
Three natural Democrat voters with a media profile, none of whom are likely to vote for them this November...
Joe Rogan is hardly a "natural Democrat voter". (Wikipedia) He endorsed Ron Paul in the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign[87] and Gary Johnson in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign.[88] Rogan has publicly supported Tulsi Gabbard and encouraged her to run for U.S. presidency in 2020.[89] On January 21, 2020, Rogan said he would "probably" vote for Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primary, adding, "He's been insanely consistent his entire life."[90] After Sanders dropped out of the race, Rogan said he would "rather vote for Trump than Biden."...
I'll have a look at the other two, but so far, natural flake seems more accurate.
Simply substituting welsh green for Scottish blue might be the way to go with a reformed union flag. Unlike Scotland, Northern Ireland and England there's never been an explicitly welsh element to the Union flag as it was folded up into the Kingdom of England which bore the St George's cross.
The blue is important for the look of the flag imo. If Scotland secedes it should remain there. It would also remind us of the factual history. Wouldn't iScotland be a member of the Commonwealth? The flag of Hawaii keeps the union flag in the corner.
My feeling is most English would agree with you, even if for some the motivation would be to annoy the Scotts. Everyone seemed quite happy to keep the St.Patrick part of the Union Flag when the remaining Irish part of the UK adopted the Ulster Banner.
Alarming for the people of Dundee, and I hope they get well soon, but it highlights the problem.
Statistically, the risk of catching Covid in schools is low, because in most places there's not much Covid to catch right now. But anyone who has experience of schools knows that they are places where germs spread really easily. And there are lots of schools, so the chances of school outbreaks somewhere are really high.
That doesn't mean that schools should all remain closed. But it does mean that the contingency measures need to be really robust, and there's little evidence that they are.
(Actually, the failure to realise that a good overall average can include some personally disastrous individual data is the blind spot that led to the exam grades disaster.)
I cannot recall the CMOs having anything to do with Barnard Castle
These people actively want to harm our children with their claptrap
Perhaps Dr Van-Tam should lead on this, as he had the balls to effectively say Cummings was wrong and the rules did apply to him and his case?
There is a much wider issue here than party politics
All schools across the UK are going back full time, all the CMO's have endorsed it, and Sturgeon (SNP), Drakeford (Labour), Foster ( DUP) and Boris (Conservative) are at one, in demanding it
And for once all the politicians are correct and I will hold no quarter with anyone who wants to interrupt the process and thereby damage a generation of our children
We cannot know that the pols are correct - we have to hope that they are.
They are correct in their determination to get schools back and this should not be a political divide
But the responsible authorities for England seem to be answering the wrong question; I don't know about the others.
The key thing about reopening schools fully is all the boring stuff. How do you get kids and staff to and from school. How closely sealed do the bubbles have to be? (Extending the primary model of one teacher with one class all the time is the most biosecure, normally secondaries have a jumble of different classes with different teachers; what's the right compromise?) What do you do about resources and marking? How do you handle staff and pupil absence? Changing for PE lessons? Local shutdowns? Masks or no masks?
All of these questions have answers, of a sort. Not perfect, but reasonable compromises. The trouble is that this government governs in primary colours, hates boring detail and resents being questioned. So those answers don't really exist, in England anyway. Rather than a coherent plan, we have something that has the potential to fall apart in about week 3, if not the first time a cheeky Year 9 starts coughing in a lesson and saying they've suddenly lost their sense of smell. Coupled with the usual sloganising. Because slogans is what this government does best.
And those who point this out get accused of wanting to damage a generation of our children.
You need to trust the teachers and head teachers more.
Schools have myriads of configuration issues and it simply impossible to think HMG should intervene in matters that those running the schools have the actual knowledge of
Simply substituting welsh green for Scottish blue might be the way to go with a reformed union flag. Unlike Scotland, Northern Ireland and England there's never been an explicitly welsh element to the Union flag as it was folded up into the Kingdom of England which bore the St George's cross.
The blue is important for the look of the flag imo. If Scotland secedes it should remain there. It would also remind us of the factual history. Wouldn't iScotland be a member of the Commonwealth? The flag of Hawaii keeps the union flag in the corner.
This will be another passports issue wont it. Yes let our governments forget about, you know actually planning to deal with an ever more chaotic international environment, the incredible technological changes that are already happening in bioscience and those that are needed for the environment. Lets focus our political debates on colours of passports and flags.
This will probably get more attention and emotion, than discussing gene editing and how it can and should be regulated.
Counterfactual: what if Farron had lost to Normal Lamb in 2015? He would likely not have been forced out post 2017, and had a much more nuanced view on the EU. Might the LibDems have managed a more meaningful recovery in the intervening period?
In Dec 2019, the Lib Dems got 11.5% of the vote, up 4.2%, the best result since 2010. In the Euros they came second nationally. Obviously not good enough in FPTP, but a start of a meaningful recovery. There are a lot of potential LD voters out there.
I voted Lamb in 2015, and Davey in 2019, so don't have a great track record in backing the right candidate. I voted Davey again.
History would suggest Foxy that maybe you do have a great track record in backing the right candidate to be fair. Maybe the issue is your fellow members haven't backed the right candidate previously?
I find that I have the same problem at General Elections too...
I would imagine the staff to pupil ratio to be the other way round, around 1:10 so that is a huge discrepancy in the infection rate between teachers and pupils.
If after testing the whole school, the positive staff to pupil ratio stays that high, the medics/virologists/epidemiologists need to get stuck into "why".
Comments
All schools across the UK are going back full time, all the CMO's have endorsed it, and Sturgeon (SNP), Drakeford (Labour), Foster ( DUP) and Boris (Conservative) are at one, in demanding it
And for once all the politicians are correct and I will hold no quarter with anyone who wants to interrupt the process and thereby damage a generation of our children
Some flag nerds have already worked it out:
RAFEW would also need new roundels that would either look suspiciously Italian or Bangladeshi.
This one is quite concerning:
https://youtu.be/-xOO9t5HWYs
For many Marxists race is only interesting in so much as it furthers their real goals on class.
I wonder if this the election where we find out BLM do not represent minority communities in America, in Britain, or anywhere else.
I think wider in the town there's been an improvement as well - the new 6th form college is better than the old one and there seems to be a mild gentrification going on in some places, if house prices are anything to go off.
Last time round Clinton was rated 85% or so https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/democratic-nomination/hillary-clinton/page/2/
This time round, Biden is rated around 55% or so. I think 538's model is more correct than people give it credit for, and immediately prior to the election Clinton (And Biden now) are both rated around 73%.
The markets have gone from underestimating Trump last time round to overestimating him this time round. It's precisely the same sort of reasoning that landed big value on the Tories in 2019, and I said so prior to the election in my piece.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/11/a-brexit-carol-how-last-time-is-shaping-the-view-of-ge2019/
https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/1297520214360367109?s=20
It could be a big problem for the Democrats, the culture war stuff is very real and a backlash against the riots especially could be in Trump's favour if they continue.
Kim Klacik's video about Baltimore has got 11m views in less than a week. She's the black, female Republican who's fed up living in a city where black people are being killed every day.
All I'm saying is that it's not a foregone conclusion, as much as many people hope it is.
Is this guy really an ex strategist?
I think we do need to remember the whole Corbyn project was built on the idea that a few rich bastards are creaming off everything and that everybody else hated them and would vote to punish them. And in his rather simple mind Jews are rich bastards. We saw that with the ADL video tricking Labour supporters into condemning Corbyn by saying his quotes were from Johnson.
The problem was this was based on a fundamental misunderstanding. His target of ‘rich bastards’ was effectively ‘anyone who owned their own home.’ A bit like Stalin’s kulaks. There were no kulaks in the Soviet Union in 1928. They had been killed, or fled, in the Civil War. But Stalin pretended there were so he could go after all the peasants.
But unlike Stalin, Corbyn got his comeuppance as his targets could - and did - vote against him.
Which left him as a racist greedy bastard who doesn’t understand politics or economics.
The back story: A minority of Australians want the flag changed as "the Union Flag represents the colonialist past". Howard always said that there needs to be a referendum if the flag were to be changed. The large star (the Federation Star) in the Australian flag has 7 points representing the 6 states and one point for all the territories. In 1998 or so Northern Territory had a territory-wide referendum whether to become a state. In the run up to the Northern Territory decision, the Journalist asked: If the Northern Territory becomes a state, will we be having a referendum just to put another point on the Federation Star?
Howard realised that any quick answer would be putting his foot in it, and it was clear he had not even thought of this "problem", so he had not thought of how to approach answering it. He ended up just blustering "that's an interesting question".
In this case kicking the can worked, as NT voted to remain a territory.
In fact it might embarrasingly be the only single I ever bought which was in the charts at the time. I usually saved the pocket money to buy albums.
'After Sanders dropped out of the race, Rogan said he would "rather vote for Trump than Biden."'
'Rubin is generally described as conservative and libertarian. He often describes himself as a "classical liberal."'
'According to Politico, Pool's "views on issues including social media bias and immigration often align with conservatives'"
When he was here he was obsessed a bit with George Osborne whom he mocked as a great Strategist. After he left this site his Tweets kept getting quoted for a long time with names like GOsborneGenius.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1297818812537081859
Still surprising after all this time
None of them were ever going to vote for the Dems under Biden, therefore any suggestions they make about voters moving away from the Democrats cos of X fail the bullshit test.
John Howard's Republic referendum campaign was a model of how to deal with a referendum if you don't want it to pass. A strong monarchist he didn't want Australia to become a Republic but the issue was strongly supported by some so he got a political convention to agree what form of Republic Australia might take then out that to a Referendum versus the status quo. Leading to people picking holes in the model chosen.
The difference between that and a simple referendum on the status quo with no alternative pre chosen like Cameron did is immense. Cameron really should have spoken to John Howard for advice pre Brexit referendum.
While I no longer have “skin in the game” as the Americans would say, I hope Ed Davey wins.
The May 2021 elections will be a useful test of opinion albeit they will be “local” contests with all the associated caveats. The County contests in some areas may be deferred if proposed local Government reforms are enacted.
The equivalent elections in 2017 were at the high water mark of Theresa May’s popularity so there may be some problems for the Conservatives defending some of those gains.
If the Dems can get all the "natural democrat voters" who abstained in 2016 in four or five key states to vote, then Biden should win it. But I do agree with one poster below (sorry I forget who), the campaign should now start attracting the central floating voters as well, as they shouldn't just rely on the 2016-stay-at-homers.
What could be less surprising?
I’m in Newham and most local elections we get a local man or woman who rails against Labour control and blames the Council for everything that’s wrong and stands as a Conservative and gets squashed.
It’s not just about problems (that’s easy) but the one-sided portrayal of those problems. Is the Labour run Council responsible for Newham’s problems? Yes but you also have to blame successive Westminster Governments for changes to legislation and cuts in funding as well as successive London Mayors.
The trouble is if you blame the Party under whose flag you now wish to get elected for the very real problems you are trying to resolve, you won’t get very far.
Independents can do this at local level but ultimately in an adversarial political environment blaming everyone without having any solutions is futile.
"Senior Tories" want Richard Leonard to resign to save BoZo's job, when in fact to save the Union BoZo should quit.
I saw it first hand, as I was living in Australia, in Howard's constituency, at that time.
If Biden can get out a few percent of those who didn't vote in marginal states last time, rather than vote for Hillary, he's the clear favorite. The largest single target demographic in the US election is the stayed-at-home-in-2016 voter, for both campaigns.
If it has other cultural connotations, I am completely unaware of them.
The key thing about reopening schools fully is all the boring stuff. How do you get kids and staff to and from school. How closely sealed do the bubbles have to be? (Extending the primary model of one teacher with one class all the time is the most biosecure, normally secondaries have a jumble of different classes with different teachers; what's the right compromise?) What do you do about resources and marking? How do you handle staff and pupil absence? Changing for PE lessons? Local shutdowns? Masks or no masks?
All of these questions have answers, of a sort. Not perfect, but reasonable compromises. The trouble is that this government governs in primary colours, hates boring detail and resents being questioned. So those answers don't really exist, in England anyway. Rather than a coherent plan, we have something that has the potential to fall apart in about week 3, if not the first time a cheeky Year 9 starts coughing in a lesson and saying they've suddenly lost their sense of smell. Coupled with the usual sloganising. Because slogans is what this government does best.
And those who point this out get accused of wanting to damage a generation of our children.
Winning Indyref is a lot more difficult with anybody other than that indolent and malignant toad squatting in No. 10.
Except Gove obviously.
That said, just back from a week in Turkey. Fantastic. Super-hot, slight wobble when "Croatia Today" somehow thought that both Turkey and Croatia were due to be included on the quarantine list but all was well in the end.
Bollocks to staycations.
Biden's super-power is ignoring these people and going straight to the actual swing voters, like elderly white people in the mid-west and educated suburban conservatives.
The flag of Hawaii keeps the union flag in the corner.
Where this has happened I don’t see why elections can’t proceed as scheduled,
Or maybe V. Putin could supply millions of doses of his untested vaccine?
The +100% areas could be moving from 1 to 2 cases, while the -50% areas could be moving from 500 to 250 cases.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8658065/Huge-Covid-outbreak-shuts-Dundee-school-17-staff-test-positive.html
(Wikipedia)
He endorsed Ron Paul in the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign[87] and Gary Johnson in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign.[88] Rogan has publicly supported Tulsi Gabbard and encouraged her to run for U.S. presidency in 2020.[89] On January 21, 2020, Rogan said he would "probably" vote for Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primary, adding, "He's been insanely consistent his entire life."[90] After Sanders dropped out of the race, Rogan said he would "rather vote for Trump than Biden."...
I'll have a look at the other two, but so far, natural flake seems more accurate.
(edit) Flake no.2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Rubin#Political_commentary
https://hobbii.co.uk/latex-gummimaelk-hvid-250-ml
Statistically, the risk of catching Covid in schools is low, because in most places there's not much Covid to catch right now. But anyone who has experience of schools knows that they are places where germs spread really easily. And there are lots of schools, so the chances of school outbreaks somewhere are really high.
That doesn't mean that schools should all remain closed. But it does mean that the contingency measures need to be really robust, and there's little evidence that they are.
(Actually, the failure to realise that a good overall average can include some personally disastrous individual data is the blind spot that led to the exam grades disaster.)
Schools have myriads of configuration issues and it simply impossible to think HMG should intervene in matters that those running the schools have the actual knowledge of
This will probably get more attention and emotion, than discussing gene editing and how it can and should be regulated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skin_in_the_game_(phrase)
If after testing the whole school, the positive staff to pupil ratio stays that high, the medics/virologists/epidemiologists need to get stuck into "why".