Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Biden-Trump betting narrows as the Democratic convention,

12345679»

Comments

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Quite why they didn't just do this to start with is beyond me. Who cares if a few "undeserving" people get into uni this year.
    My theory is that right wingers get far more angry at the guilty/undeserving getting away with it.

    While left-wingers get more angry at punishment of the innocents.

    Not sure if that's fair but feels like it correlates on a number of issues (criminal justice, voting rights, benefits) although not on all (tax dodging).

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Say what you like about BJ and Dom, they wouldn't be dumb enough to do a speech in front of a crowd of unvetted Scottish factory workers.

    https://twitter.com/PeterArnottGlas/status/1295318932841168897?s=20

    Remember the porridge factory visit, oh must have been about 6-7 years ago?
    I don't remember that, I assume it was Cameron or similar?
    It was. Unhappy workies at the photo call, ring a bell? Or did I misread it at the time?

    No, on checking ...

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-makes-a-quaker-oaf-688759
    Lol, the expression on the face of the bloke next to Cameron is priceless. If I was aware of it I'd forgotten it.

    Amazing to think that there was another 30 months of referendum-ing to go. Wouldn't be surprised if that incident informed a lot of Better Together's subsequent strategy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,367

    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
  • Second wave happening in Italy now too?

    We should quarantine the whole world until this virus is gone or a vaccine exists. Let people in this country get back to as normal as possible.

  • Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    But the last three days are looking good right?

    *Wink*
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,367

    NHS England Hospital numbers -

    Headline - 2
    7 days - 2
    Yesterday - 0

    image
    image
    image
    image

    So on that trend we should be on negative deaths by Wednesday?
    FFS, you had to say that.

    2020 can still get worse.

    See this documentary - https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0816711/
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Say what you like about BJ and Dom, they wouldn't be dumb enough to do a speech in front of a crowd of unvetted Scottish factory workers.

    https://twitter.com/PeterArnottGlas/status/1295318932841168897?s=20

    Remember the porridge factory visit, oh must have been about 6-7 years ago?
    I don't remember that, I assume it was Cameron or similar?
    It was. Unhappy workies at the photo call, ring a bell? Or did I misread it at the time?

    No, on checking ...

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-makes-a-quaker-oaf-688759
    Lol, the expression on the face of the bloke next to Cameron is priceless. If I was aware of it I'd forgotten it.

    Amazing to think that there was another 30 months of referendum-ing to go. Wouldn't be surprised if that incident informed a lot of Better Together's subsequent strategy.
    And the London branch of the SCUP, when it comes to visit the imperial domains. Remember how Mrs May would never have a walkabout?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    NHS England Hospital numbers -

    Headline - 2
    7 days - 2
    Yesterday - 0

    image
    image
    image
    image

    So on that trend we should be on negative deaths by Wednesday?
    Maybe I just wanna fly
    Wanna live, I don't wanna die
    Maybe I just wanna breathe
    Maybe I just don't believe
    Maybe you're the same as me
    We see things they'll never see
    You and I are gonna live forever
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    I received my degree in 1976 when there were only 24 universities no need for the Oxbridge or the
    Jack Russell Tag the degree got you the interview everything else was up to you, now you have HR departments rejecting quality people even before interview because they went to the wrong university.

    I think the term “red brick” was used to denote the non-Oxbridge universities, i.e. those not built of stone by medieval masons.
    By 76 we had grey, red (Manchester) and the Wilson inspired University extension mainly in technology and engineering.
    It was never a good description anyway:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keble_College,_Oxford#/media/File:Keble_College_Chapel_-_Oct_2006.jpg
    Isn't there a 'destroy Keble' society, membership of which costs a number of red bricks, or a single purple one?

    I didn't think it was that bad, to be honest.
    On the HR department thing.

    In one company I worked for, they had a policy of "2.1 or a 1st from Russell Group, or foreign equivalent".

    Then I found out the bit that would make a dog laugh.

    The incoming CVs were filtered for this by a young lady in the HR department. That's what she did, filter against a list. Bin the CVs outside the criteria.

    The funny bit - she had no degree. Straight in as an admin assistant from school.
    In my experience, HR are always and everywhere a law unto themselves.

  • NEW THREAD

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    nichomar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    On A levels Scotland is the odd one out then.

    The question is why the other three governments do not adopt Scotland's approach
    Becasue it is daft, vast grade inflation helps no one
    Don’t we demand better teaching at all levels? Isn’t the outcome of better teaching and exam focus an improve not in grades? How do you separate Grade inflation from genuine improvements?
    The system of relative marking prevalent until the late 1980s was pretty immune from grade inflation. The top 10% were awarded an A grade with a further 15% obtaining a B grade. 75% of pupils,therefore, did no better than a C grade.That changed very little - if at all - from year to year. Moreover 30% of pupils under that system failed to reach an E grade.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
    The numbers to track are New infections and hospitalizations, followed bi icu occupancy, deaths are a lagging indicator.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,428
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Quite why they didn't just do this to start with is beyond me. Who cares if a few "undeserving" people get into uni this year.
    The only plausible reason is grade A complete and utter Incompetency - after all this disaster was obvious this time last week..
    Watch Ireland. They're currently planning on deploying a similar algorithm to award calculated grades, with the results not due to be published until September 7th.

    Will they learn from the Scottish, English and Northern Irish examples?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    nichomar said:


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
    The numbers to track are New infections and hospitalizations, followed bi icu occupancy, deaths are a lagging indicator.
    Those are flat, aren't they?
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Second wave happening in Italy now too?

    We should quarantine the whole world until this virus is gone or a vaccine exists. Let people in this country get back to as normal as possible.

    I'm starting to consider this to be the best way too.

    Anecdote alert, one of the two people I share my house with is currently in Greece, and he received a text message from the Greek government this morning warning of rising cases in his area and to keep safe. He's due back on the 25th and I'm predicting he'll probably have to quarantine by that point.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Andy_JS said:

    "Tony Blair warns another national lockdown is 'impossible' and blasts 14 day quarantine rules as too long - as he claims ministers have been over relying on experts during coronavirus crisis

    Ex-PM said 'not possible' and 'not credible' to have another national lockdown
    He said the Government should roll out mass testing programme to stop spread
    Claimed ministers' 14 day quarantine travel policy is 'wrong' and should be cut
    Mr Blair suggested ministers have been over-reliant on officials during the crisis"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8634645/Tony-Blair-warns-national-lockdown-impossible.html

    Blair is spot on. I'm now going to listen to the full interview on the Today programme.

    Thanks for posting this.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000ltkd

    Blair on at 2hr34mins
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    justin124 said:

    nichomar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    On A levels Scotland is the odd one out then.

    The question is why the other three governments do not adopt Scotland's approach
    Becasue it is daft, vast grade inflation helps no one
    Don’t we demand better teaching at all levels? Isn’t the outcome of better teaching and exam focus an improve not in grades? How do you separate Grade inflation from genuine improvements?
    The system of relative marking prevalent until the late 1980s was pretty immune from grade inflation. The top 10% were awarded an A grade with a further 15% obtaining a B grade. 75% of pupils,therefore, did no better than a C grade.That changed very little - if at all - from year to year. Moreover 30% of pupils under that system failed to reach an E grade.
    That’s what it was like in my day but how do you then demonstrate any teaching improvements.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.


    Tony Blair's new paper says approx 70% of covid cases are asymptomatic...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Say what you like about BJ and Dom, they wouldn't be dumb enough to do a speech in front of a crowd of unvetted Scottish factory workers.

    https://twitter.com/PeterArnottGlas/status/1295318932841168897?s=20

    Remember the porridge factory visit, oh must have been about 6-7 years ago?
    I don't remember that, I assume it was Cameron or similar?
    It was. Unhappy workies at the photo call, ring a bell? Or did I misread it at the time?

    No, on checking ...

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-makes-a-quaker-oaf-688759
    Lol, the expression on the face of the bloke next to Cameron is priceless. If I was aware of it I'd forgotten it.

    Amazing to think that there was another 30 months of referendum-ing to go. Wouldn't be surprised if that incident informed a lot of Better Together's subsequent strategy.
    That would be the strategy which won when your side lost despite having all the power of the Scottish government behind it, a disliked Tory government imposing year after year of austerity (according to the official line) and endless SNP placemen in every office and "independent" body? That strategy?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,367
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
    The numbers to track are New infections and hospitalizations, followed bi icu occupancy, deaths are a lagging indicator.
    Those are flat, aren't they?
    Cases are up.
    Hospitalisations, ICU occupancy are slowly trending down.
    Deaths are down

    The concern is things like this -

    image

    from the ONS

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
    The numbers to track are New infections and hospitalizations, followed bi icu occupancy, deaths are a lagging indicator.
    Those are flat, aren't they?
    Cases are up.
    Hospitalisations, ICU occupancy are slowly trending down.
    Deaths are down

    The concern is things like this -

    image

    from the ONS

    Thanks. Agreed, cases are definitely on the rise, but no uptick in the other indicators yet... yet!
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Tony Blair warns another national lockdown is 'impossible' and blasts 14 day quarantine rules as too long - as he claims ministers have been over relying on experts during coronavirus crisis

    Ex-PM said 'not possible' and 'not credible' to have another national lockdown
    He said the Government should roll out mass testing programme to stop spread
    Claimed ministers' 14 day quarantine travel policy is 'wrong' and should be cut
    Mr Blair suggested ministers have been over-reliant on officials during the crisis"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8634645/Tony-Blair-warns-national-lockdown-impossible.html

    ...he claims ministers have been over relying on experts
    Tony was a secret Leaver all this time??
  • nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    I received my degree in 1976 when there were only 24 universities no need for the Oxbridge or the
    Jack Russell Tag the degree got you the interview everything else was up to you, now you have HR departments rejecting quality people even before interview because they went to the wrong university.

    I think the term “red brick” was used to denote the non-Oxbridge universities, i.e. those not built of stone by medieval masons.
    By 76 we had grey, red (Manchester) and the Wilson inspired University extension mainly in technology and engineering.
    It was never a good description anyway:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keble_College,_Oxford#/media/File:Keble_College_Chapel_-_Oct_2006.jpg
    Isn't there a 'destroy Keble' society, membership of which costs a number of red bricks, or a single purple one?

    I didn't think it was that bad, to be honest.
    On the HR department thing.

    In one company I worked for, they had a policy of "2.1 or a 1st from Russell Group, or foreign equivalent".

    Then I found out the bit that would make a dog laugh.

    The incoming CVs were filtered for this by a young lady in the HR department. That's what she did, filter against a list. Bin the CVs outside the criteria.

    The funny bit - she had no degree. Straight in as an admin assistant from school.
    I know one local company that insists on Oxbridge. It is run by the founder's son who went to South Bank Poly; the founder had graduated with a London external degree via evening classes.

    The government should seek to end this sort of thing (which btw probably covers race discrimination as well) by persuasion. Famously in America, when Google and other tech giants looked at their workforces, they found to their surprise the "top schools" did not supply the best performers.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
    The numbers to track are New infections and hospitalizations, followed bi icu occupancy, deaths are a lagging indicator.
    Those are flat, aren't they?
    The ones I’ve seen are hovering around 1100 new cases a day
  • NEW THREAD

    OLD THREAD

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    nichomar said:


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
    The numbers to track are New infections and hospitalizations, followed bi icu occupancy, deaths are a lagging indicator.
    ICU and hospital visits are steadily falling AIUI
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Say what you like about BJ and Dom, they wouldn't be dumb enough to do a speech in front of a crowd of unvetted Scottish factory workers.

    https://twitter.com/PeterArnottGlas/status/1295318932841168897?s=20

    Remember the porridge factory visit, oh must have been about 6-7 years ago?
    I don't remember that, I assume it was Cameron or similar?
    It was. Unhappy workies at the photo call, ring a bell? Or did I misread it at the time?

    No, on checking ...

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-makes-a-quaker-oaf-688759
    Lol, the expression on the face of the bloke next to Cameron is priceless. If I was aware of it I'd forgotten it.

    Amazing to think that there was another 30 months of referendum-ing to go. Wouldn't be surprised if that incident informed a lot of Better Together's subsequent strategy.
    That would be the strategy which won when your side lost despite having all the power of the Scottish government behind it, a disliked Tory government imposing year after year of austerity (according to the official line) and endless SNP placemen in every office and "independent" body? That strategy?
    Jeezo, another sufferer from bad winner syndrome. I expressed no opinion on the strategy which seems to exercise you greatly.

    What's the winning strategy next time? Don't think wearing Labour badges is going to swing it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
    The numbers to track are New infections and hospitalizations, followed bi icu occupancy, deaths are a lagging indicator.
    Those are flat, aren't they?
    Cases are up.
    Hospitalisations, ICU occupancy are slowly trending down.
    Deaths are down

    The concern is things like this -

    image

    from the ONS

    Thanks. Agreed, cases are definitely on the rise, but no uptick in the other indicators yet... yet!
    That’s how the uptick started in Spain the problems are growing in Madrid and Catalonia where the hospitals are starting to be stretched, a large part of the rest of the country it’s appearing in young people and much lower hospitalizations. Thank goodness they shut the discos and late night bars down at the weekend although they should never have let them open.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    The new thread, which was a thing of some confusion, seems to have gone again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Say what you like about BJ and Dom, they wouldn't be dumb enough to do a speech in front of a crowd of unvetted Scottish factory workers.

    https://twitter.com/PeterArnottGlas/status/1295318932841168897?s=20

    Remember the porridge factory visit, oh must have been about 6-7 years ago?
    I don't remember that, I assume it was Cameron or similar?
    It was. Unhappy workies at the photo call, ring a bell? Or did I misread it at the time?

    No, on checking ...

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-makes-a-quaker-oaf-688759
    Lol, the expression on the face of the bloke next to Cameron is priceless. If I was aware of it I'd forgotten it.

    Amazing to think that there was another 30 months of referendum-ing to go. Wouldn't be surprised if that incident informed a lot of Better Together's subsequent strategy.
    That would be the strategy which won when your side lost despite having all the power of the Scottish government behind it, a disliked Tory government imposing year after year of austerity (according to the official line) and endless SNP placemen in every office and "independent" body? That strategy?
    Jeezo, another sufferer from bad winner syndrome. I expressed no opinion on the strategy which seems to exercise you greatly.

    What's the winning strategy next time? Don't think wearing Labour badges is going to swing it.
    Erm, "Wouldn't be surprised if that incident informed a lot of Better Together's subsequent strategy."

    But whatever.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    nichomar said:


    Just 2 deaths in England hospitals, both over 80.

    Weekend effect, remember
    Due to the very low numbers I doubt there is much weekend effect anymore
    The numbers to track are New infections and hospitalizations, followed bi icu occupancy, deaths are a lagging indicator.
    ICU and hospital visits are steadily falling AIUI
    Is that because they won't let visitors in? Even my wife had to stand outside the hospital this morning before she was collected and she was a patient!
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Everyone seems desperate to throw OFQUAL under the bus, but I think the Gov't should stick to it's guns. If pupils want to get a better grade they can sit an autumn exam.

    Are you offering to pay their salaries for the lost working year?

    What is odd is that no ministers spotted the huge political elephant trap -- another sign of Boris's inexperienced Cabinet?
    Everyone seems to want airy fairy artificially inflated grades. The young man I refferred to in my previous post went to a standard comp not some tiny cohort private school - my guess is actually the algorithm is rather better than most people like to think it is.
    These days A-levels exist mainly as a gateway to university -- the number of university places is the important thing, and if I were Boris I'd pressure the universities to speed up the acceptance process. Almost no-one cares about A-levels beyond that.
    I keep hearing this and it simply isn't true. I'm 37 with an 18 year track record of employment of one sort or another in a wide variety of fields, and when I apply for jobs employers still want to know my A-levels. That even included Bristol and Bath universities, which was a pain as their forms took ages to fill in.
    To what extent would an employer take account of the huge change in grading systems that occurred at the end of the 1980s? Under the system of relative marking , an A grade really stood out in a way that it has long ceased to do. How many employers would have the knowledge to take on board the likely truth that a pupil obtaining BCC grades circa 1985 would likely have managed AAA circa 2000? Admittedly Anno Domini will be removing the issue to some extent in that people who sat A levels in the mid to late 1980s will now be over 50 years old. Doubtless it must still crop up though.
    Depends what the employer wants to know, really.

    If they want to know whether a potential employee is able to do a particular job (and an A-level is relevant), then the absolute grade is important (the later method).

    If they want to employ someone who was in the top whatever percentage in their particular year of A-levels, then the relative grade is important (the earlier method).

    Of course, someone who got an A in one year (a weak year) might have got a C in another year (a strong year) with exactly the same capability and performance in the relative grade system.
    Not sure,Mr Cooke, that the difference between one year and another would be that considerable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Quite why they didn't just do this to start with is beyond me. Who cares if a few "undeserving" people get into uni this year.
    Because it devalues the "results". 2020 A Levels will always be tainted
    They would be anyway.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    ClippP said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Everyone seems desperate to throw OFQUAL under the bus, but I think the Gov't should stick to it's guns. If pupils want to get a better grade they can sit an autumn exam.

    Are you offering to pay their salaries for the lost working year?

    What is odd is that no ministers spotted the huge political elephant trap -- another sign of Boris's inexperienced Cabinet?
    Everyone seems to want airy fairy artificially inflated grades. The young man I refferred to in my previous post went to a standard comp not some tiny cohort private school - my guess is actually the algorithm is rather better than most people like to think it is.
    These days A-levels exist mainly as a gateway to university -- the number of university places is the important thing, and if I were Boris I'd pressure the universities to speed up the acceptance process. Almost no-one cares about A-levels beyond that.
    I keep hearing this and it simply isn't true. I'm 37 with an 18 year track record of employment of one sort or another in a wide variety of fields, and when I apply for jobs employers still want to know my A-levels. That even included Bristol and Bath universities, which was a pain as their forms took ages to fill in.
    To what extent would an employer take account of the huge change in grading systems that occurred at the end of the 1980s? Under the system of relative marking , an A grade really stood out in a way that it has long ceased to do. How many employers would have the knowledge to take on board the likely truth that a pupil obtaining BCC grades circa 1985 would likely have managed AAA circa 2000? Admittedly Anno Domini will be removing the issue to some extent in that people who sat A levels in the mid to late 1980s will now be over 50 years old. Doubtless it must still crop up though.
    Depends what the employer wants to know, really.

    If they want to know whether a potential employee is able to do a particular job (and an A-level is relevant), then the absolute grade is important (the later method).

    If they want to employ someone who was in the top whatever percentage in their particular year of A-levels, then the relative grade is important (the earlier method).

    Of course, someone who got an A in one year (a weak year) might have got a C in another year (a strong year) with exactly the same capability and performance in the relative grade system.
    Not sure,Mr Cooke, that the difference between one year and another would be that considerable.
    According to one marker I knew, it could be.
    Of course, that's anecdote rather than data, and it would be likely for him to have picked the largest such deviation he could remember in order to make his point. And, of course, in certain courses, a small group of people taking the test could cause such deviations quite easily, I would assume (if only a couple of thousand took a given course, wide variations in the "top ten percent" and "bottom thirty percent" per year would be nailed on.

    It does seem a touch unfair that one could automatically fail if everyone improved to a certain degree, despite the absolute level of one's paper. If you graded on such a curve in a group where everyone was very strong one year (not implausible in the smaller subjects), then you were screwed if 70% of them beat you. And it does, of course, give no weighting to any change in the difficulty of the paper over time. Should it become harder or easier from one year to the next (or over several years), there would be no indication in the grades.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    eek said:

    Right decision, well done if so.
    Does that mean they get the university place that disappeared last week though? Otherwise it solves one problem and creates another.

    It also shows how completely and utterly truly incompetent they are as this problem (and this conclusion) was obvious last Monday....
    The clowns had their chance to point to Scotland and say we have to do same or its unfair and limit the damage , but they are so useless they could not even work that out.
This discussion has been closed.