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WH2020 The Biden-Trump betting narrows as the Convention, now virtual opens online. Chart @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/UgSuyvEQzG
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Does the hacker keep changing it or is there a cache that needs clearing or something?
The upside is that Trump almost certainly needs these sort of events even more. He feeds off his crowds and hones his messages by how they respond. He looked utterly despondent when his last rally turned into a damp squib and for good reasons. He does not want to campaign by being interviewed by a largely hostile media day after day. He needs that direct link with his base and I am not sure how he is going to replace it.
The prime minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, has postponed the country's general election by a month amid a spike in coronavirus cases.
It is estimated that 1/3 of the planet got Swine flu in 2010. Imagine if we had been reporting daily on the number of people getting that, and operating a reporting basis that any one dying and/or hospitalised with a positive test was dying and/or hospitalised because of that virus! I think it’s fair to say that far more deaths would have been attributed to it than actually were!
Whilst i’m not necessarily disputing that Covid is probably dangerous than Swine Flu, has anyone stopped to ask the question WHY the vastly huge majority of those dying are elderly and/or with serious existing health conditions, whilst huge numbers of young/healthy are barely affected at all? Could it possibly be that in many cases COVID is not causing their deaths?
What would the “excess deaths” be in a normal year if we effectively shut hospitals down for six months? Possibly somewhat higher than normal...?
As I say, the pandemic infecting most people should probably be assumed by governments. If they deciding to make this basic assumption and actually started focusing more on health outcomes (across all areas) how might the policies change?
He gets to jet off steam, and they do get widespread coverage.
Best wishes for the op.
Regarding the emptying hospitals, how much of that is now down to patients being reluctant to go in, and how much to the NHS ?
Clearly there is a significant reduction in capacity owing to COVID measures, but it can’t just be that ?
A-level grades 'drop below three-year average', new analysis suggests
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-53799860
This is abysmal:
...The Sixth Form Colleges Association (SFCA) said it looked at 65,000 exam entries in 41 subjects from sixth form colleges and found that grades were 20% lower than historic performances for similar students in those colleges....
Hope it all goes well, Mr. L.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909368/6656-1_Awarding_GCSE__AS__A_level__advanced_extension_awards_and_extended_project_qualifications_in_summer_2020_-_interim_report.pdf
Anyone with statistical chops got the time and inclination to wade through it ?
(I suspect one reason it’s several hundred pages long is to discourage such an effort.)
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/797584449047265281
Now it's recurred and the GP said she needs a further consultant review...... no, needn't pay that sort of money; I'll refer you.
So we had a call from an appointment booking service..... you can go to.... naming four reasonably local centres. OK.... naming the most convenient. Not, sorry, nothing in the foreseeable. OK, another. Same.
Turns out there's NO possibility of a dermatologist appointment this year in Mid or N Essex.
My dept is running at about 50% capacity.
Maybe if this gets maintained we'll see a reduction in MRSA etc and not just COVID19?
That’s both interesting and potentially worrying for a lot of people.
For an NHS positive, I've recently been discharged by the Prostate Cancer clinic; now down to six monthly blood tests, and the GP to review and refer if necessary. But the Registrar, when we had the phone consultation, said he didn't expect I'd be back.
And we start thinking again on the basis of risk assessment and not “COVID is the greatest threat to mankind since the Black Death”
See: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
Historically do Don't Knows tend to go more towards the incumbent or the challenger when a POTUS seeks re-election? Or do they split relatively evenly?
That is insane
Somebody having surgery can be advised to limit contact with other people in the lead up to an operation. Somebody who has tested negative is very unlikely to contract the virus in any specific week, especially at current levels of virus circulation in the population. Somebody having routine surgery is very unlikely to come into contact with many people in a hospital other than the clinical staff treating them (and anyone else - well all the current procedures Foxy is referring to would be irrelevant anyway). The clinical staff will all be wearing full PPE...
At what point are we allowed to ask how many people are dying because hospitals aren't running at full capacity...?
All i'm calling for is risk assessment, proportionate in scale to other managed risks that are run every day in every hospital on a routine basis. An outbreak of legionnaires disease. MRSA. E-coli in food. Dodgy batch of medicine. Not the Black Death.
What is the current practice for testing medical staff testing in the UK?
If there is little testing of medical staff, then the problem is significantly worse than if testing once a week.
A question - under what circumstances is it likely that somebody, somewhere will actually decide that the risk suppression is having a negative affect on overall clinical outcomes throughout the population, and COVID needs to be managed just like anything else?
In data analysis terms that is a huge and basic mistake.
Still, if biden does get North of 51%, it's hard to see him losing. He's tracking about 4-5 points above where Ms Clinton was in 2016.
No algorithm should be randomly giving people Us because it can have almost no basis for doing so. It can't rely on teacher's rankings because such outcomes in normal exam life won't easily follow ability like that. I imagine the algorithm has looked at schools, noted they normally get a percentage of Us every year, and then just given them out in proportion. Which is an absurd way to decide a pupil's future life. At least if they have had a panic on the day, they can rationalise the outcome (even if not truly reflective of their potential) and own it to some extent. But to be given a U by a computer!!!
Before CV-19 I thought Trump was a shoo-in. That has been turned upside down by events.
My sense, but I'm edgy on this, is that Biden is going to turn out by chance to have been an utter stroke of genius as the choice. What do you most want in a national, international, crisis? A volatile loon or a safe pair of hands?
That's why Joe will probably win.
You need to be careful here, if incumbents on average win 55:45, then an average of 60:40 don't know break will be more or less the same as a basic proportional allocation. On top of that probably quite a high proportion of don't knows will end up not voting, as "don't know" will correlate highly with "not very motivated".
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng179
The entire NHS England is operating under Command and Control still, with no real local autonomy. Look upwards if you want to apportion blame.
Any system that just randomly assigns "U" grades without good reason is a disgrace. Because some people think the whole procedure is a disgrace is not enough imply what you are claiming.
There are huge numbers of people in the NHS going to work each day and are doing nothing. My wife is one of them, she regularly comes home and says "yet another day when I have done nothing". She is a nurse on a ward.
The lunancy of shutting the NHS to protect it from Covid must be killing hundreds of people. Currently less than 1% of hospital beds are taken up with Covid yet we have shut the entire system beacuse of it.
This website provides an interesting snapshot of hospital data.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
The most startling one for me was the number of NHS staff who were off sick on the 8th August 2020.
Have a guess.
Its 60,367.
Just what we need for a pandemic
When COVID rose the death totals rose and we had excess deaths. When COVID fell the death totals fell and we didn't have excess deaths. Controlling the virus saves lives.
If you want to be coldly logical and simply try and save lives then what the NHS is doing is working.
But my point is that in any exam cohort there will be pupils who get unexpected Us (or very poor grades) on isolated papers, due to circumstances on the day. This is normally "random" in the sense that every teacher will know that there will probably be some pupils for whom this happens, but has almost no idea who it is going to happen to.
As the algorithm has tried to replicate past distribution of grades it has assigned "U" or very poor grades, to some pupils. But on what basis, who knows? Obviously it's going to be the exception rather than the rule, but across the entire country there will be unlucky kids. There was a case (obviously caveated as unverified) referenced on here year of a pupil who needed ABB for her university (which was presumably achievable or the Uni wouldn't have accepted her) who got ABU, and consequently couldn't apply anywhere!
Congratulations OKC, great news.
And this years A levels were also the new GCSE guinea pig year..
Which is patently absurd! The issue with algorithms is if you put garbage in, you get garbage out. Unless the teachers were able to with the Wisdom of Solomon and Mystic Meg combined get the ranking in 100% the right order then anyone ranked lower than they should have been will be punitively getting a terrible grade from the algorithm. The average comes out fine because for everyone getting a terrible grade below what they should have got there is someone else getting a great grade above what they should have got - but that doesn't make things better or acceptable for those that have suffered. If there is any doubt as to the accuracy of the results then being reasonable the benefit of the doubt should go to the student.
That is insane. It should never have happened. The results are not accurate, they are not fair, they don't meet what has historically happened and averaging out errors by insisting two wrongs make a right is madness.
- On the basis of the teacher-produced pupil ranking. If the algorithm says there should be a U in that subject at that particular school the lowest ranked pupil gets it.
Since when were teachers able to rank pupils 100% in the correct order with zero mistakes?
Allocating grades based on past years performance isn't a good idea - unless you are a Preston North End fan - who are now celebrating their 131st league title
Fuckwits. RIP the Spanish tourism industry......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-53802226/coronavirus-hundreds-gather-in-madrid-for-anti-mask-protest
The terrible thing this year is we're not just betting on whom the electorate wants to vote for the most, but will they be able to do so freely. From the nation formerly known as the leader of the free world.
The test itself was pretty unpleasant, especially the prod up the nose. It's not hard to see either option, plus the perceived much higher risk of catching Covid in hospital rather than anywhere else, reducing the number opting for recommended but not critical surgery/consultations etc. My daughter also works at a local hospital. Her department, photobiology, has roughly 25% of the capacity that it had before as a result of the protocols which come pretty close to one in, one out.
It is astonishing that an NHS that was allegedly working beyond capacity with spiralling waiting lists, has been able to work like this for 5 months now without all hell breaking loose.
Could be run daily, and give a result very quickly.
It might be possible to combine that with pre-hospital attendance quarantines for elective surgery ? Things like hip replacement operations have taken a massive hit.
Raab can cut and paste that for mid-November....
That's not a failing of the teachers, its a failing of the system designed. Teachers can't be expected to 100% accurately foretell the ranking of their pupils.
Seems to me that we have got to the point where Johnson needs to step in, over-rule Williamson, and do what Scotland did and award centre assessed grades where they are higher than the algorithm.
Meanwhile the Education secretary does have a choice to make. Does he want Headmasters to spend the next 2 weeks getting a school ready to open in early September or completing 1000 appeal forms.