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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor who got under Trump’s skin, moves up sharply in the Biden VP pick betting
In the early days of the Biden VP pick saga Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of the highly marginal state of Michigan, was one of the early favourites. Her state has been one of the worst hit by the pandemic and there was a highly public clash between her and the President after she was said not to have shown enough gratitude to Trump for his assistance.
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b) This rumour is wrong
c) Both rumours are wrong
I'd say the value is with (c).
Kamala Harris: 2.08
Susan Rice: 3.5
Gretchen Whitmer: 8.8
Elizabeth Warren: 20
Val Demings: 20
Karen Bass: 21
Tammy Duckworth: 21
Michelle Obama: 36
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 65
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 75
Stacey Abrams: 85
Hillary Clinton: 110
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_Coronavirus_Task_Force
At least he is telling it like it is. That's what leadership is about.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-may-only-be-50-effective-us-disease-expert-warns-12044927
My best result is Harris, simply because I haven't sold her as aggressively as some of the other names.
https://twitter.com/nbeaudrot/status/1291915918969171968
It is hard to be objective because it is not really clear what one of them brings that another does not, and if they are all more or less equivalent (although obviously not the same, but equivalent in the sense of having known vulnerabilities that are outweighed by their good points) then it comes down to personal chemistry and how Biden felt on the morning of their meeting.
Whoever is nominated, I expect they'd do a good job, and even if adding to the gaiety of the nation by misspelling potatoe, I doubt she will repel many votes.
https://twitter.com/StephenKing/status/1291902939024457730
A lot of primary voting forms didn't arrive in time for people to vote and that was before the latest sets of cuts
F1: not sure if I'll bet on qualifying. My early thoughts are that Bottas might win (or top qualifying) and that Ricciardo may do well.
The tyres being softer is good. Makes things edgier.
Edited extra bit: Bottas' qualifying odds have lengthened slightly from 3.5 yesterday to 3.7 now.
A misguided effort to make Biden look young ?
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860668342079490
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860674029555714
Now, to the trivia: the lady in the pix is slathered with make-up and appears to have had her teeth bleached.
But, if she's a tough cookie then more elbow power to her.
https://gvwire.com/2020/07/15/study-wearing-a-mask-dramatically-protects-you-from-severe-covid-19-symptoms/
... Depending on how robust the person’s immune system is, a smaller exposure appears to correlate with milder cases of COVID-19. It’s probably because with a smaller amount of virus to deal with, the body’s immune system has a better chance of mounting a defense, the paper’s authors suggest.
It also appears people who wear masks but contract the disease are much more likely to be asymptomatic, meaning they have COVID-19 but no symptoms....
... One of the earliest estimates of asymptomatic COVID infection was from the COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Masks were not provided on the ship and the number of asymptomatic infections was below 20%, the report states.
In a more recent report from a different cruise ship outbreak aboard the Ernest Shackleton, all passengers were issued surgical masks and all staff provided N95 masks after the initial case of COVID-19 on the ship was detected. In that setting with masking, where 128 of 217 passengers and staff eventually tested positive for COVID-19, the study states that 81% of infected patients remained asymptomatic, compared to 18% on the Diamond Princess.
The authors also referenced a recent outbreak in a seafood processing plant in Oregon where all workers were issued masks each day at work. The rate of asymptomatic infection among the 124 infected was 95%....
I was thinking that the virus may have mutated, but maybe this is a better hypothesis.
Come the election, even if no reliable vaccine has been found, Trump can hold up a bottle of Domestos and claim it to be the elixir of life, and again certain voters will believe him.
Loads for Kamala Harris and Susan Rice.
A little bit for Tammy Duckworth.
Presumably super spreaders who shed large quantities of the virus not only infect more people but infect them with more of the virus in one go?
It makes sense to me as it would help explain why so many medics - see Italy (as @Tyson was always pointing out) died from Covid. Big dosage from close-up patients.
Masks are having a heyday aren`t they. SeanT was right? I don`t like them from a civil liberties standpoint, and so dislike compulsion, but accept it as a temporary measure only in these awful times.
This has always been the doubtful bit in my mind about the viral load hypothesis. I assumed that the virus would be much faster than the host`s defenses.
The residents would - I`m guessing - have received a low viral load, possibly from surface transmission. Younger, healthy people would shrug this off but the residents of the homes, with age and other health factors against them, succumed.
The virus can replicate quickly, but as a great philosopher once remarked about football, everything is made more complicated by the presence of the opposing team. The host starts the fight very quickly with generic mechanisms.
This is a good summary of immunology for beginners:
https://twitter.com/edyong209/status/1290989075982360577?s=09
It seems to be saying tha anti-establishmentism is the key to comedy, and because some famous comedians and comedy programmes disliked Corbyn or did such things as 'blamed Corbyn for Johnson’s victory without taking responsibility for helping Johnson establish his harmless clown persona', that means they were on the same side as 'the establisment'. It calls out Charlie Brooker for a bit on the Corbyn-Branson row which apparently included far more time attacking Corbyn than Branson and didn't consider corporate interests (that Corbyn was indeed wrong about what he claimed I guess is not of relevance).
https://www.redpepper.org.uk/how-corbyn-unmasked-comedy/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB
Blaming Corbyn for losing an election? Perish the thought. Apparently comedians are are supposed to be political radicals at all times. It's silly of political conservatives to moan that there's too much left wing comedy out there, without Corbynites also now suggesting the comedy establishment is not doing its job because they mocked the great man. (Ed M didn't get it easy either of course).
Onthe other hand, the article itself was therefore of great comedic value.
There's a suggestion that he'll also announce cabinet picks, which isn't traditionally done in the US (although it's a good idea, the Shadow Cabinet is a good feature of British politics):
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/biden-2020-announcing-cabinet-members-election-risky-move-151871
So right before the VP announcement, leak/announce Rice as Secretary of State, Harris as AG, etc etc.
"There’s a joke about immunology, which Jessica Metcalf of Princeton recently told me. An immunologist and a cardiologist are kidnapped. The kidnappers threaten to shoot one of them, but promise to spare whoever has made the greater contribution to humanity. The cardiologist says, “Well, I’ve identified drugs that have saved the lives of millions of people.” Impressed, the kidnappers turn to the immunologist. “What have you done?” they ask. The immunologist says, “The thing is, the immune system is very complicated …” And the cardiologist says, “Just shoot me now.”"
So comedians must be to blame, not Corbyn. Or Jews. Or Labour officials. Or Laura Kuenssberg, Countdown hosts, anyone who doesn't see the unique virtues of the man or his words must be a bad actor. It's a cultish creed Labour need to stamp out and quarantine itself from as it's just so dangerous - not initially as they have power over very little and are reduced to attacking minor celebrities - but as it rots the brain and would cause huge problems were it to be over something serious where errors had been made it was impossible to reasonably course correct without blaming some conspiracy.
We should try making an organisation of close geographical states with common interests.
We could call it the European Union
Sleaze has returned, why does this always happen to Tory Governments with majorities?
Whitmer and Demings are both capable anyway
Edwards and Ryan did not but their states were longshots for Kerry and Romney anyway unlike Michigan and Florida for Biden
Ron Davies>?? the badger watcher??? Prezza...
A former Labour MP and ex-Army officer who admitted making an indecent image of a child has been sentenced.
Eric Joyce had a 51-second film on a device that showed "the sexual abuse of very young children", Ipswich Crown Court heard.
The former shadow minister and ex-MP for Falkirk was arrested in 2018.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-53694012
eg there is going to be a reckoning coming soon.. the book should be a very interesting read, especially for Malcy.
The extent and how it may increase are the unknows.
In 2015 in a climate favourable to re-election the party suppressed its radicalism - in both content and messaging - for fear of being rogered by the tory press and (linked) of spooking the denizens of Middle England.
Result - a Conservative majority government. Reaction - Fuck it then. Let's stop poncing around. Let's drop the timidity. It's sterile and it's getting us nowhere in any case. We'll shift left. Elect a properly socialist leader and run on a radical platform. No apologies for it. Give the voters the choice and see what happens.
What did happen? - Another loss but close and a better performance than achieved under the previous 2 leaders. And this despite Jeremy Corbyn being a sub-optimal PM candidate on a personal level (deficiency of brain power).
Moral - The left nearly won a GE with a poor leader. With better packaging we can do so one day soon.
I have no idea what she thinks the RN are going to do. They certainly don't have any powers that Border Farce don't already have and, while they have the right of non-vexatious passage through French territorial waters, they certainly don't have the right to drop loads of scrandies off on the beach at Grande-Synthe.
Early use of O2 support rather than delay followed by ventilation, patients rest in prone rather than on back, use of dexamethasone. Combined impact on mortality rate appears to be circa 50%.
Other therapeutics moving through the system to improve this further.
Worst case vaccine likely to reduce mortality by a further 50% / halve R and will likely be in a lot of (Western) arms in a timeline measured in mere months rather than years.
Removal of perhaps 40% of the excess deaths figure from the statistical total that were caused by lockdown rather than the virus.
And that’s without considering what might be a tailing off of cases requiring hospitalisation in places where it was previously rampant. Possibly due to T-cell immunity leading to natural burn out, though perhaps a behavioural artefact of the most vulnerable.
Thankfully Covid-19 is fast moving from something genuinely frightening into damp squib territory. Some people will likely still continue to become seriously ill and die of it but perhaps come the spring bluebells season, everyone can stop with the doom mongering and we can all start picking up the pieces of our economy and society and stop living a half life. And Sean can go back to playing spin the bottle with a bus load of Arizonan cheerleaders or whatever it is he likes to do.
It’s a sunny day, those feeling down have plenty of reason to feel optimistic. No doubt for saying this I’ll get called an ignorant chimpanzee or something by the mathematicians here with a chip on their shoulder but big picture, things are looking up.
Milliband should have stayed as leader.