This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Whats happening there is similar to Europe in April. They enforce a stringent lockdown but cases keep going up.
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Whats happening there is similar to Europe in April. They enforce a stringent lockdown but cases keep going up.
“Signaling the states they see as most competitive, the Biden campaign said their ads will target: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.”
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
The tories have lost support from the time that Starmer took over.
You can argue the toss over whether that is due to Starmer or due to the government's handling of Sars-Cov-2. Arguing the toss: there was a significant increase in tory support between the election and the first UK-Covid death. Also many other governments have so far held onto their Corona-Bounce but the the UK-Government has not.
Lets look at Survation as a polling series then, every single poll since the General Election.
My regular reminder that Covid madness is not just a UK wide phenomenon. My local tourist town is responding to an outbreak at some clubs last w/e by rapid testing and tracing. The've set up a centre in the town for the tests. There is a Facebook notice which begins by saying 'These are NOT tests for the general population only those who went to these clubs last week. If you did you must first go to your doctor who will refer you for a test. Only then can you be tested. ' That's the way to get responsible teens to do their civic duty quickly. NOT!
“Signaling the states they see as most competitive, the Biden campaign said their ads will target: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.”
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
He has no need to do that prior to the day after the General Election. If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
On the contrary, if they are to have any hope of backing from elsewhere, the Labour Party needs to start preparing the ground now. Time after time the Labour leadership seems to be promising reforms, often at the last minute when they are desperate for votes. And then when Labour Party support is needed to get those reforms through, they are nowhere to be seen, or even actively opposed to them.
Blair, Miliband and Corbyn were all guilty of this. Labour are not to be trusted as far as you can see them... This is why they need to start working on the problem now, and there is as yet no sign that they have realised it.
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Whats happening there is similar to Europe in April. They enforce a stringent lockdown but cases keep going up.
No they didn’t. Stop talking utter bollocks.
From the BBC
Victoria reported 725 new infections on Wednesday, yet another daily record despite being four weeks into lockdown.
“Signaling the states they see as most competitive, the Biden campaign said their ads will target: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.”
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
Indeed. As OGH points out there are no elections with which to contextualise the polls. Its all a bit phoney war at the moment with regards to who is popular or not.
People are fooling themselves by taking the absolute peak polling for Boris and treating it as if it were normal. The graph of Boris popularity/satisfaction shows a tiny rise in ratings over the year he has been PM, with a huge spike then return to normality around March-April this year.
Boris ratings vs Starmer are pretty much what they were vs Corbyn, I think
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Whats happening there is similar to Europe in April. They enforce a stringent lockdown but cases keep going up.
No they didn’t. Stop talking utter bollocks.
From the BBC
Victoria reported 725 new infections on Wednesday, yet another daily record despite being four weeks into lockdown.
So? We know that lockdown works, it just lags. You want evidence? It worked in this country. It worked all across Europe. Your misleading agenda to suggest otherwise is just that. A complete fabrication.
Let's hope Johnson and Hancock don't get any ideas on that front.
Haven't they already closed down Leicester including pubs? Since the Aberdeen outbreak appears to be centered on pubs, it at least seems more targeted.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
The tories have lost support from the time that Starmer took over.
You can argue the toss over whether that is due to Starmer or due to the government's handling of Sars-Cov-2. Arguing the toss: there was a significant increase in tory support between the election and the first UK-Covid death. Also many other governments have so far held onto their Corona-Bounce but the the UK-Government has not.
Lets look at Survation as a polling series then, every single poll since the General Election.
I'm not seeing a statistically significant loss of support there. Looks like an outlier in April but otherwise a fairly flat and consistent series.
True, though there's no data for nearly three months (fair enough, opinion polling is hardly an essential service). Look at the polls that were taken in that time;
December - March: Conservatives up, mostly at expense of LD, a bit at the expense of Labour.
April - May: Labour up, Conservatives down
June / July: roughly flat, with a 6 % Conservative lead. The interesting question is whether the Conservative voters now are the same voters they had in December. If I were a new RedBlue Wall MP, I'd be nervous that they weren't.
And if you compare the UK situation with France or Germany, the Covid bounces in those countries haven't really deflated.
One wonders whether the BBC have been briefed that the government are about the change the death statistics counting method and are preparing the ground for thousands of deaths to be taken out of the official count. I think it's about 30-40 per day for around three months that will be removed with a 28 day limit.
I still think we should now be using he ONS series going forwards, they should drop the PHE series entirely and just do the once a week update from the ONS.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
It hasn't unwound in any of the other countries where I have looked at the polling, but I'm sure you'll come up with some invented reason why the many European countries where governing parties are still more popular than before Covid are all irrelevant.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
You can say they have lost support if they had been polling higher. All the polls show they were. They are back to or just below their GE score.
Of course not - far too optimistic! Matches my more hopeful thoughts. Its easy to get hung up on R numbers (beguilingly simple, and widely misunderstood) and small increases in positive cases (with a background of the positives coming from more testing in hot-spots, with many asymptomatic cases). I can't see the future, but for the current time, life isn't awful for many, people are adjusting to new ways of life that most hope will be temporary and every day brings us closer to a vaccine (hopefully). I believe we could see some vaccination before Christmas this year.
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
He has no need to do that prior to the day after the General Election. If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
On the contrary, if they are to have any hope of backing from elsewhere, the Labour Party needs to start preparing the ground now. Time after time the Labour leadership seems to be promising reforms, often at the last minute when they are desperate for votes. And then when Labour Party support is needed to get those reforms through, they are nowhere to be seen, or even actively opposed to them.
Blair, Miliband and Corbyn were all guilty of this. Labour are not to be trusted as far as you can see them... This is why they need to start working on the problem now, and there is as yet no sign that they have realised it.
Different scenarios. Blair didn't need help from other parties and Miliband/Corbyn were in opposition.
On the Flavible numbers the SNP will be in a more powerful position than the DUP was for May. They will demand an independence referendum and if one is promised and in the Queen's Speech they will vote for it. If it is refused they can simply vote down the Queen's Speech.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
Indeed. As OGH points out there are no elections with which to contextualise the polls. Its all a bit phoney war at the moment with regards to who is popular or not.
People are fooling themselves by taking the absolute peak polling for Boris and treating it as if it were normal. The graph of Boris popularity/satisfaction shows a tiny rise in ratings over the year he has been PM, with a huge spike then return to normality around March-April this year.
Boris ratings vs Starmer are pretty much what they were vs Corbyn, I think
Starmer's are much higher than Corbyn's, though. This means the Labour leader is no longer a drag on the Labour vote share or an active repellant to those who might consider switching from the Tories to another party.
Of course not - far too optimistic! Matches my more hopeful thoughts. Its easy to get hung up on R numbers (beguilingly simple, and widely misunderstood) and small increases in positive cases (with a background of the positives coming from more testing in hot-spots, with many asymptomatic cases). I can't see the future, but for the current time, life isn't awful for many, people are adjusting to new ways of life that most hope will be temporary and every day brings us closer to a vaccine (hopefully). I believe we could see some vaccination before Christmas this year.
My personal *guess* is that *some* of the recent increase in cases is down to increased testing.
The positivity percentages are quite steady.
But I don't *think* that *all* of it is.
One point I would definitely agree on, from the article, is that the local lockdowns are being imposed at much lower levels of cases than the peak.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
Indeed. As OGH points out there are no elections with which to contextualise the polls. Its all a bit phoney war at the moment with regards to who is popular or not.
People are fooling themselves by taking the absolute peak polling for Boris and treating it as if it were normal. The graph of Boris popularity/satisfaction shows a tiny rise in ratings over the year he has been PM, with a huge spike then return to normality around March-April this year.
Boris ratings vs Starmer are pretty much what they were vs Corbyn, I think
Starmer's are much higher than Corbyn's, though. This means the Labour leader is no longer a drag on the Labour vote share or an active repellant to those who might consider switching from the Tories to another party.
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Whats happening there is similar to Europe in April. They enforce a stringent lockdown but cases keep going up.
No they didn’t. Stop talking utter bollocks.
From the BBC
Victoria reported 725 new infections on Wednesday, yet another daily record despite being four weeks into lockdown.
So? We know that lockdown works, it just lags. You want evidence? It worked in this country. It worked all across Europe. Your misleading agenda to suggest otherwise is just that. A complete fabrication.
The other thing, is that as the medical services in a country start to deal successfully with COVID, they will target increasing volumes of testing.
One wonders whether the BBC have been briefed that the government are about the change the death statistics counting method and are preparing the ground for thousands of deaths to be taken out of the official count. I think it's about 30-40 per day for around three months that will be removed with a 28 day limit.
I still think we should now be using he ONS series going forwards, they should drop the PHE series entirely and just do the once a week update from the ONS.
If that happens, the following will happen.
1) Piers Morgan will achieve room temperature fusion 2) The death threats against PHE on twitter will be horrendous - "Murderous Tory Stooges" etc. 3) Which opposition MPs will make fools of themselves will be a betting market.
Of course not - far too optimistic! Matches my more hopeful thoughts. Its easy to get hung up on R numbers (beguilingly simple, and widely misunderstood) and small increases in positive cases (with a background of the positives coming from more testing in hot-spots, with many asymptomatic cases). I can't see the future, but for the current time, life isn't awful for many, people are adjusting to new ways of life that most hope will be temporary and every day brings us closer to a vaccine (hopefully). I believe we could see some vaccination before Christmas this year.
My personal *guess* is that *some* of the recent increase in cases is down to increased testing.
The positivity percentages are quite steady.
But I don't *think* that *all* of it is.
One point I would definitely agree on, from the article, is that the local lockdowns are being imposed at much lower levels of cases than the peak.
Which would mean that at least one lesson has been learnt. The idea, put about at the time, and still supported by some people here, that "it would be (have been) a mistake to impose any lockdown measures earlier because people would get tired of it so let's wait until it's totally raging out of control" was always wrong. If you wait, you just have to impose a stricter lockdown for longer.
"And given Opinium’s unparalleled achievement in getting each of the Conservative, Labour and LD voting shares spot on in the December 2019 general election, they’ve earned the right to have their methods accepted without reservation."
er, no. That is one data point.
People win the lottery. Should we accept their future number picks without reservation?
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Whats happening there is similar to Europe in April. They enforce a stringent lockdown but cases keep going up.
No they didn’t. Stop talking utter bollocks.
From the BBC
Victoria reported 725 new infections on Wednesday, yet another daily record despite being four weeks into lockdown.
So? We know that lockdown works, it just lags. You want evidence? It worked in this country. It worked all across Europe. Your misleading agenda to suggest otherwise is just that. A complete fabrication.
Ok we will see where Melbourne is in a couple of weeks. I think the lockdown there is one of the most severe.
One wonders whether the BBC have been briefed that the government are about the change the death statistics counting method and are preparing the ground for thousands of deaths to be taken out of the official count. I think it's about 30-40 per day for around three months that will be removed with a 28 day limit.
I still think we should now be using he ONS series going forwards, they should drop the PHE series entirely and just do the once a week update from the ONS.
If that happens, the following will happen.
1) Piers Morgan will achieve room temperature fusion 2) The death threats against PHE on twitter will be horrendous - "Murderous Tory Stooges" etc. 3) Which opposition MPs will make fools of themselves will be a betting market.
I think we need clarity about what countries this brings us in to line with. If it's just our own way of making ourselves look a bit better, that's ridiculous and should be mocked. If it is genuinely how everyone else is counting, of course we should bring ourselves in line whilst continuing to monitor the larger figure. There is potentially a big self-inflicted wound to tourism by giving a different and inherently higher figure than other countries.
Also, Sweden has seen an 8.6% drop in GDP in Q2 and their June/July data doesn't signal a V shaped bounce back in the same way it does in other European countries. They've also seen a larger GDP drop than their neighbours who locked down early.
I don't think we have detailed forecasts for Sweden, but I may task the team to do some so we can get a sense of how that strategy changes the economic outlook.
That's worse than expected as well, I was seeing 7% expected GDP drop.
"And given Opinium’s unparalleled achievement in getting each of the Conservative, Labour and LD voting shares spot on in the December 2019 general election, they’ve earned the right to have their methods accepted without reservation."
er, no. That is one data point.
People win the lottery. Should we accept their future number picks without reservation?
One wonders whether the BBC have been briefed that the government are about the change the death statistics counting method and are preparing the ground for thousands of deaths to be taken out of the official count. I think it's about 30-40 per day for around three months that will be removed with a 28 day limit.
I still think we should now be using he ONS series going forwards, they should drop the PHE series entirely and just do the once a week update from the ONS.
If that happens, the following will happen.
1) Piers Morgan will achieve room temperature fusion 2) The death threats against PHE on twitter will be horrendous - "Murderous Tory Stooges" etc. 3) Which opposition MPs will make fools of themselves will be a betting market.
I think we need clarity about what countries this brings us in to line with. If it's just our own way of making ourselves look a bit better, that's ridiculous and should be mocked. If it is genuinely how everyone else is counting, of course we should bring ourselves in line whilst continuing to monitor the larger figure. There is potentially a big self-inflicted wound to tourism by giving a different and inherently higher figure than other countries.
It's how they count deaths in Scotland, Wales and NI as well as almost all other European countries. Only PHE have this definition where no one recovers from COVID, essentially anyone who has tested positive will eventually be counted in the PHE series, even if they die two years from now by being hit by a bus. It's a worry for the DoH because loads of old people in homes who weren't far from death are now being counted as virus deaths after a positive test three or four months ago. That's also what accounts for the difference between the ONS showing ~200 deaths per week at the moment and falling by 20% per week vs PHE reporting upwards of 400 deaths per week and not falling. I think we're actually at around 15-20 deaths per day in the whole of the UK at the moment.
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
He has no need to do that prior to the day after the General Election. If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
On the contrary, if they are to have any hope of backing from elsewhere, the Labour Party needs to start preparing the ground now. Time after time the Labour leadership seems to be promising reforms, often at the last minute when they are desperate for votes. And then when Labour Party support is needed to get those reforms through, they are nowhere to be seen, or even actively opposed to them.
Blair, Miliband and Corbyn were all guilty of this. Labour are not to be trusted as far as you can see them... This is why they need to start working on the problem now, and there is as yet no sign that they have realised it.
Different scenarios. Blair didn't need help from other parties and Miliband/Corbyn were in opposition.
On the Flavible numbers the SNP will be in a more powerful position than the DUP was for May. They will demand an independence referendum and if one is promised and in the Queen's Speech they will vote for it. If it is refused they can simply vote down the Queen's Speech.
So why then in the run-up to the election, was there a tacit understanding between Ashdown and Blair, in order to finally get rid of the totally disfunctional Conservative government? The key to that understanding was electoral reform. And then Blair stabbed the Liberals in the back. As they usually do.
Would Blair have taken power if he had not smooched the Lib Dems in the run up? And presented the Labour Party as something acceptable to Lib Dems and all decent reasonable people? I think not. He had the mad Foot legacy to contend with, and needed to change his image. A shame he did not completely change the reality while he was about it.
Both Milliband and Corbyn had nice, tasty things in their manifestos. But they did not really mean them. Have you so soon forgotten the Labour Party´s betrayal over AV?
One wonders whether the BBC have been briefed that the government are about the change the death statistics counting method and are preparing the ground for thousands of deaths to be taken out of the official count. I think it's about 30-40 per day for around three months that will be removed with a 28 day limit.
I still think we should now be using he ONS series going forwards, they should drop the PHE series entirely and just do the once a week update from the ONS.
If that happens, the following will happen.
1) Piers Morgan will achieve room temperature fusion 2) The death threats against PHE on twitter will be horrendous - "Murderous Tory Stooges" etc. 3) Which opposition MPs will make fools of themselves will be a betting market.
I think we need clarity about what countries this brings us in to line with. If it's just our own way of making ourselves look a bit better, that's ridiculous and should be mocked. If it is genuinely how everyone else is counting, of course we should bring ourselves in line whilst continuing to monitor the larger figure. There is potentially a big self-inflicted wound to tourism by giving a different and inherently higher figure than other countries.
It's how they count deaths in Scotland, Wales and NI as well as almost all other European countries. Only PHE have this definition where no one recovers from COVID, essentially anyone who has tested positive will eventually be counted in the PHE series, even if they die two years from now by being hit by a bus. It's a worry for the DoH because loads of old people in homes who weren't far from death are now being counted as virus deaths after a positive test three or four months ago. That's also what accounts for the difference between the ONS showing ~200 deaths per week at the moment and falling by 20% per week vs PHE reporting upwards of 400 deaths per week and not falling. I think we're actually at around 15-20 deaths per day in the whole of the UK at the moment.
This.
The question is - who has died of COVID?
The simple answer is - some of the people infected with it.
The best answer we are likely to have is tests and medical opinion.
Given that the concept of delayed death was good enough to put "Delayed death by war wounds" on death certificates a century ago, it should not be impossible to do for COVID.
I would suggest -
1) As a first approximation, the 28 day rule. 2) To be modified by death certificate (or other official documentation - see ONS) indicating that COVID caused delayed death - eg lung damage.
Let's hope Johnson and Hancock don't get any ideas on that front.
Haven't they already closed down Leicester including pubs? Since the Aberdeen outbreak appears to be centered on pubs, it at least seems more targeted.
No, Leicester pubs opened on Monday though non essential journeys into or within the city are still banned.
Let's hope Johnson and Hancock don't get any ideas on that front.
Haven't they already closed down Leicester including pubs? Since the Aberdeen outbreak appears to be centered on pubs, it at least seems more targeted.
No, Leicester pubs opened on Monday though non essential journeys into or within the city are still banned.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Of course not - far too optimistic! Matches my more hopeful thoughts. Its easy to get hung up on R numbers (beguilingly simple, and widely misunderstood) and small increases in positive cases (with a background of the positives coming from more testing in hot-spots, with many asymptomatic cases). I can't see the future, but for the current time, life isn't awful for many, people are adjusting to new ways of life that most hope will be temporary and every day brings us closer to a vaccine (hopefully). I believe we could see some vaccination before Christmas this year.
My personal *guess* is that *some* of the recent increase in cases is down to increased testing.
The positivity percentages are quite steady.
But I don't *think* that *all* of it is.
One point I would definitely agree on, from the article, is that the local lockdowns are being imposed at much lower levels of cases than the peak.
Its also important that the hospital admissions, numbers of inpatients and numbers on ventilators are still falling. No sign that increased Pillar 2 cases means more very sick people.
Let's hope Johnson and Hancock don't get any ideas on that front.
Haven't they already closed down Leicester including pubs? Since the Aberdeen outbreak appears to be centered on pubs, it at least seems more targeted.
No, Leicester pubs opened on Monday though non essential journeys into or within the city are still banned.
It must make sense to someone...
So you can only visit the pub if it's essential ?
That would, no doubt, make sense to some Conservative jobsworth.
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
He has no need to do that prior to the day after the General Election. If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
On the contrary, if they are to have any hope of backing from elsewhere, the Labour Party needs to start preparing the ground now. Time after time the Labour leadership seems to be promising reforms, often at the last minute when they are desperate for votes. And then when Labour Party support is needed to get those reforms through, they are nowhere to be seen, or even actively opposed to them.
Blair, Miliband and Corbyn were all guilty of this. Labour are not to be trusted as far as you can see them... This is why they need to start working on the problem now, and there is as yet no sign that they have realised it.
Different scenarios. Blair didn't need help from other parties and Miliband/Corbyn were in opposition.
On the Flavible numbers the SNP will be in a more powerful position than the DUP was for May. They will demand an independence referendum and if one is promised and in the Queen's Speech they will vote for it. If it is refused they can simply vote down the Queen's Speech.
So why then in the run-up to the election, was there a tacit understanding between Ashdown and Blair, in order to finally get rid of the totally disfunctional Conservative government? The key to that understanding was electoral reform. And then Blair stabbed the Liberals in the back. As they usually do.
Would Blair have taken power if he had not smooched the Lib Dems in the run up? And presented the Labour Party as something acceptable to Lib Dems and all decent reasonable people? I think not. He had the mad Foot legacy to contend with, and needed to change his image. A shame he did not completely change the reality while he was about it.
Both Milliband and Corbyn had nice, tasty things in their manifestos. But they did not really mean them. Have you so soon forgotten the Labour Party´s betrayal over AV?
Blair proves my point not yours. Blair was laying the groundwork in case he needed Lib Dem support after the election - but all that went out the window the second the results came in as he realised he didn't need them. Exactly the same as Trudeau in Canada.
Miliband and Corbyn both lost. They themselves, their parties and their manifestos were unpopular. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
Whereas the closest the UK has ever come to electoral reform in Westminster was the AV referendum under a Tory Prime Minister. What soundings had the Tories done about electoral reform before the election? Absolutely none whatsoever. But it was the price the Lib Dems demanded for their support - and Cameron needed their support.
Ultimately the first rule of politics is to know how to count. If third parties hold the balance of power after the election they can try to demand what they want and that their potential partners are prepared to offer. But if the arithmetic renders them redundant then they are square out of luck - just like the Lib Dems in 1997 or the Canadian NDP in 2015.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Of course not - far too optimistic! Matches my more hopeful thoughts. Its easy to get hung up on R numbers (beguilingly simple, and widely misunderstood) and small increases in positive cases (with a background of the positives coming from more testing in hot-spots, with many asymptomatic cases). I can't see the future, but for the current time, life isn't awful for many, people are adjusting to new ways of life that most hope will be temporary and every day brings us closer to a vaccine (hopefully). I believe we could see some vaccination before Christmas this year.
My personal *guess* is that *some* of the recent increase in cases is down to increased testing.
The positivity percentages are quite steady.
But I don't *think* that *all* of it is.
One point I would definitely agree on, from the article, is that the local lockdowns are being imposed at much lower levels of cases than the peak.
Its also important that the hospital admissions, numbers of inpatients and numbers on ventilators are still falling. No sign that increased Pillar 2 cases means more very sick people.
The problem is that this profile has been seen elsewhere - Florida, for example. Lots of infections, not too many serious cases. Mostly young people. Then it jumps into the vulnerable population......
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Pubs, reimplementation of 'must WFH if possible guidance', non-essential shops should all be closed/changed before schools I think.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
Indeed. As OGH points out there are no elections with which to contextualise the polls. Its all a bit phoney war at the moment with regards to who is popular or not.
People are fooling themselves by taking the absolute peak polling for Boris and treating it as if it were normal. The graph of Boris popularity/satisfaction shows a tiny rise in ratings over the year he has been PM, with a huge spike then return to normality around March-April this year.
Boris ratings vs Starmer are pretty much what they were vs Corbyn, I think
Starmer's are much higher than Corbyn's, though. This means the Labour leader is no longer a drag on the Labour vote share or an active repellant to those who might consider switching from the Tories to another party.
That is true, it's the idea that it is something to do with Starmer that caused Boris' ratings to fall that I take issue with. They shot up when Starmer was appointed Labour leader, but that was nothing to do with it either
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Pubs, reimplementation of 'must WFH if possible guidance', non-essential shops should all be closed/changed before schools I think.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
The tories have lost support from the time that Starmer took over.
You can argue the toss over whether that is due to Starmer or due to the government's handling of Sars-Cov-2. Arguing the toss: there was a significant increase in tory support between the election and the first UK-Covid death. Also many other governments have so far held onto their Corona-Bounce but the the UK-Government has not.
Lets look at Survation as a polling series then, every single poll since the General Election.
I'm not seeing a statistically significant loss of support there. Looks like an outlier in April but otherwise a fairly flat and consistent series.
Boris secured an 80 seat majority. Past elections suggest that big winners tend to get a big poll boost - which is what happened this time too.
In 1997 Blair's lead went up in a similar fashion, and apart from the fuel protests, he held on to a lead for over 8 years.
Boris' post-victory boost has already unwound, and we're heading into perhaps the worst recession any of us have ever seen.
Starmer has turned around the leadership issue, but the rest of the Labour house is still on fire. As the old leadership drift into the background, he'll likely turn that around too.
We're clearly in a hugely unusual time, but I suspect the Tories are very depressed by the current polling.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
I'd never describe myself as a pure libertarian, but I do think in the particular circumstance of the pandemic people should be allowed to do what they feel is right for their family. I'd have schools open and a voluntary return for pupils.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
I'd never describe myself as a pure libertarian, but I do think in the particular circumstance of the pandemic people should be allowed to do what they feel is right for their family. I'd have schools open and a voluntary return for pupils.
I`d have all schools open and a compulsory return for children.
Maggie's Net Satisfaction lead is in red, and her lead on positives is in blue (IPSOS MORI only)
Interesting chart.
Can I suggest breaking it into two charts to represent the two Parliaments? Or putting a line at the point of the '87 General Election?
Here is the same thing for Cameron and Ed Miliband. Tiny sample, but so far the positives seem to favour the winner more so than the net satisfaction. I saw the same thing with individual leader characteristics - More people thought of Boris as "brave" than Sir Keir, for instance, but the net results make it look like Starmer wins on that score
Camerons lead on net satisfaction is in red, and his lead on positives in blue
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
This is where the R budget comes into play. She needs to have the balls to be unpopular and close shops/pubs to ensure schools stay open or make unpopular demands of teachers and say they may need to voluntarily shield and keep themselves out of situations where they could spread the virus to ensure no schools need to close. It's the stickiest wicket for all countries IMO.
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
He has no need to do that prior to the day after the General Election. If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
On the contrary, if they are to have any hope of backing from elsewhere, the Labour Party needs to start preparing the ground now. Time after time the Labour leadership seems to be promising reforms, often at the last minute when they are desperate for votes. And then when Labour Party support is needed to get those reforms through, they are nowhere to be seen, or even actively opposed to them.
Blair, Miliband and Corbyn were all guilty of this. Labour are not to be trusted as far as you can see them... This is why they need to start working on the problem now, and there is as yet no sign that they have realised it.
Different scenarios. Blair didn't need help from other parties and Miliband/Corbyn were in opposition.
On the Flavible numbers the SNP will be in a more powerful position than the DUP was for May. They will demand an independence referendum and if one is promised and in the Queen's Speech they will vote for it. If it is refused they can simply vote down the Queen's Speech.
So why then in the run-up to the election, was there a tacit understanding between Ashdown and Blair, in order to finally get rid of the totally disfunctional Conservative government? The key to that understanding was electoral reform. And then Blair stabbed the Liberals in the back. As they usually do.
Would Blair have taken power if he had not smooched the Lib Dems in the run up? And presented the Labour Party as something acceptable to Lib Dems and all decent reasonable people? I think not. He had the mad Foot legacy to contend with, and needed to change his image. A shame he did not completely change the reality while he was about it.
Both Milliband and Corbyn had nice, tasty things in their manifestos. But they did not really mean them. Have you so soon forgotten the Labour Party´s betrayal over AV?
Blair proves my point not yours. Blair was laying the groundwork in case he needed Lib Dem support after the election - but all that went out the window the second the results came in as he realised he didn't need them. Exactly the same as Trudeau in Canada.
Miliband and Corbyn both lost. They themselves, their parties and their manifestos were unpopular. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
Whereas the closest the UK has ever come to electoral reform in Westminster was the AV referendum under a Tory Prime Minister. What soundings had the Tories done about electoral reform before the election? Absolutely none whatsoever. But it was the price the Lib Dems demanded for their support - and Cameron needed their support.
Ultimately the first rule of politics is to know how to count. If third parties hold the balance of power after the election they can try to demand what they want and that their potential partners are prepared to offer. But if the arithmetic renders them redundant then they are square out of luck - just like the Lib Dems in 1997 or the Canadian NDP in 2015.
The starting point of this discussion, made by some PB Tory, was that Starmer would come to power with the support of the SNP and the Lib Dems. My argument was that there is nothing inevitable about this, since the Labour Party has a long history of betrayal. As does the Conservative Party, of course. Neither is trustworthy.
If the Labour Party wants to build up trust, it needs to start working on that now. A policy that they have been supporting in the five years leading up to an election, would probably be more sincerely held than something they have grabbed hold of at the last minute.
At present, the two things that Starmer has going for him is that he is not Corbyn, and he is not Johnson. That, while valid, is hardly an overpowerful argument for supporting him.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
I'd never describe myself as a pure libertarian, but I do think in the particular circumstance of the pandemic people should be allowed to do what they feel is right for their family. I'd have schools open and a voluntary return for pupils.
Voluntary return? When by all accounts childrens' mental health issues are skyrocketing given the anxiety and stress of the pandemic without the natural release of social interaction and routine?
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
I'd never describe myself as a pure libertarian, but I do think in the particular circumstance of the pandemic people should be allowed to do what they feel is right for their family. I'd have schools open and a voluntary return for pupils.
I`d have all schools open and a compulsory return for children.
Do you favour Gov't compulsion in other areas of the pandemic response or just this one ?
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
The tories have lost support from the time that Starmer took over.
You can argue the toss over whether that is due to Starmer or due to the government's handling of Sars-Cov-2. Arguing the toss: there was a significant increase in tory support between the election and the first UK-Covid death. Also many other governments have so far held onto their Corona-Bounce but the the UK-Government has not.
Lets look at Survation as a polling series then, every single poll since the General Election.
I'm not seeing a statistically significant loss of support there. Looks like an outlier in April but otherwise a fairly flat and consistent series.
Boris secured an 80 seat majority. Past elections suggest that big winners tend to get a big poll boost - which is what happened this time too.
In 1997 Blair's lead went up in a similar fashion, and apart from the fuel protests, he held on to a lead for over 8 years.
Boris' post-victory boost has already unwound, and we're heading into perhaps the worst recession any of us have ever seen.
Starmer has turned around the leadership issue, but the rest of the Labour house is still on fire. As the old leadership drift into the background, he'll likely turn that around too.
We're clearly in a hugely unusual time, but I suspect the Tories are very depressed by the current polling.
Not really.
In 2001 the Tories got 30.7% at the election. The Tories had polled at or above 30% not just from the fuel protests onwards, but in virtually every single poll in 2000.
The opinion polls at the election were fairly accurate for the Tories too. The error in the polling in the 1997-2001 Parliament was because there was an immediate post-election and until the next election swing from the Lib Dems to Labour.
What's happened this time? A swing from the Lib Dems to Labour. Just the same as then and many previous Parliaments.
As long as the Tories are polling in the mid-40s I think they'd be quite happy with that.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
I'd never describe myself as a pure libertarian, but I do think in the particular circumstance of the pandemic people should be allowed to do what they feel is right for their family. I'd have schools open and a voluntary return for pupils.
I`d have all schools open and a compulsory return for children.
Do you favour Gov't compulsion in other areas of the pandemic response or just this one ?
When the mental health, not to say the future prospects of a section of society is at stake then I understand it very well.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
I'd never describe myself as a pure libertarian, but I do think in the particular circumstance of the pandemic people should be allowed to do what they feel is right for their family. I'd have schools open and a voluntary return for pupils.
Voluntary return? When by all accounts childrens' mental health issues are skyrocketing given the anxiety and stress of the pandemic without the natural release of social interaction and routine?
Blimey I know what I'd do if I had children.
Yep. As I said I wouldn't describe myself as a libertarian, but I think it should be down to parental decision here.
Let's hope Johnson and Hancock don't get any ideas on that front.
Haven't they already closed down Leicester including pubs? Since the Aberdeen outbreak appears to be centered on pubs, it at least seems more targeted.
No, Leicester pubs opened on Monday though non essential journeys into or within the city are still banned.
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
He has no need to do that prior to the day after the General Election. If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
On the contrary, if they are to have any hope of backing from elsewhere, the Labour Party needs to start preparing the ground now. Time after time the Labour leadership seems to be promising reforms, often at the last minute when they are desperate for votes. And then when Labour Party support is needed to get those reforms through, they are nowhere to be seen, or even actively opposed to them.
Blair, Miliband and Corbyn were all guilty of this. Labour are not to be trusted as far as you can see them... This is why they need to start working on the problem now, and there is as yet no sign that they have realised it.
Different scenarios. Blair didn't need help from other parties and Miliband/Corbyn were in opposition.
On the Flavible numbers the SNP will be in a more powerful position than the DUP was for May. They will demand an independence referendum and if one is promised and in the Queen's Speech they will vote for it. If it is refused they can simply vote down the Queen's Speech.
So why then in the run-up to the election, was there a tacit understanding between Ashdown and Blair, in order to finally get rid of the totally disfunctional Conservative government? The key to that understanding was electoral reform. And then Blair stabbed the Liberals in the back. As they usually do.
Would Blair have taken power if he had not smooched the Lib Dems in the run up? And presented the Labour Party as something acceptable to Lib Dems and all decent reasonable people? I think not. He had the mad Foot legacy to contend with, and needed to change his image. A shame he did not completely change the reality while he was about it.
Both Milliband and Corbyn had nice, tasty things in their manifestos. But they did not really mean them. Have you so soon forgotten the Labour Party´s betrayal over AV?
Blair proves my point not yours. Blair was laying the groundwork in case he needed Lib Dem support after the election - but all that went out the window the second the results came in as he realised he didn't need them. Exactly the same as Trudeau in Canada.
Miliband and Corbyn both lost. They themselves, their parties and their manifestos were unpopular. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
Whereas the closest the UK has ever come to electoral reform in Westminster was the AV referendum under a Tory Prime Minister. What soundings had the Tories done about electoral reform before the election? Absolutely none whatsoever. But it was the price the Lib Dems demanded for their support - and Cameron needed their support.
Ultimately the first rule of politics is to know how to count. If third parties hold the balance of power after the election they can try to demand what they want and that their potential partners are prepared to offer. But if the arithmetic renders them redundant then they are square out of luck - just like the Lib Dems in 1997 or the Canadian NDP in 2015.
The starting point of this discussion, made by some PB Tory, was that Starmer would come to power with the support of the SNP and the Lib Dems. My argument was that there is nothing inevitable about this, since the Labour Party has a long history of betrayal. As does the Conservative Party, of course. Neither is trustworthy.
If the Labour Party wants to build up trust, it needs to start working on that now. A policy that they have been supporting in the five years leading up to an election, would probably be more sincerely held than something they have grabbed hold of at the last minute.
At present, the two things that Starmer has going for him is that he is not Corbyn, and he is not Johnson. That, while valid, is hardly an overpowerful argument for supporting him.
It was the starting point, but I disagree. The reality is that it is a numbers game. "Trust" is less consequential to numbers and bartering afterwards.
In a hung parliament scenario post election horse trading will determine the outcome of what happens next. Trust will be difficult no doubt, but horse trading depends upon numbers. If the SNP + Lab are prepared to work together and have the numbers to work together then they will. If the numbers are there they won't. Same with the LDs and Lab.
In an ideal world you might want trust. We don't live in an ideal world. It will be cold, hard realpolitik that matters. Numbers and power will triumph over trust, just as it always has.
And here we go. This is when the shine wears off the SNP Covid response.
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
Do you think? I don't actually. I think people will get it (obviously not being Aberdeen pubgoers or owners will help).
This is the first of many reversals. They will add up and add up fast in my opinion.
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Schools are the big one IMO, they are back pretty soon and she needs to have the balls to keep them open even if it means tolerating an R of 0.9-1.1, I'm worried that she won't and will take the easy option of closing them down.
Back next week here. We are a household that had been shielding up until last week.
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
I'd never describe myself as a pure libertarian, but I do think in the particular circumstance of the pandemic people should be allowed to do what they feel is right for their family. I'd have schools open and a voluntary return for pupils.
Voluntary return? When by all accounts childrens' mental health issues are skyrocketing given the anxiety and stress of the pandemic without the natural release of social interaction and routine?
Blimey I know what I'd do if I had children.
Yep. As I said I wouldn't describe myself as a libertarian, but I think it should be down to parental decision here.
I think it should be also - but there needs then to be an information/education initiative so that people understand the payoffs.
Keep my Xyr old child at home = all safe and sound but sends them bonkers Send them to school = normal childhood, reduces anxiety, and exposes them and their parents to some small degree of risk.
I'm sure @Alistair is one of those drive up to the school gates in a Range Rover Evoque kind of parents also just in case his children are exposed to any other kind of risks.
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Whats happening there is similar to Europe in April. They enforce a stringent lockdown but cases keep going up.
No they didn’t. Stop talking utter bollocks.
From the BBC
Victoria reported 725 new infections on Wednesday, yet another daily record despite being four weeks into lockdown.
So? We know that lockdown works, it just lags. You want evidence? It worked in this country. It worked all across Europe. Your misleading agenda to suggest otherwise is just that. A complete fabrication.
Ok we will see where Melbourne is in a couple of weeks. I think the lockdown there is one of the most severe.
I had a thought that lockdown initially has an accelerating effect on cases and potentially deaths. Because what lockdown does is push people together for long periods (within families) where previously even they may have had more fleeting contact. And creates higher viral loads. After this initial period many of the ongoing chains are broken an numbers start to come down (albeit after a possible further secondary hospital spreading effect).
It's how they count deaths in Scotland, Wales and NI as well as almost all other European countries. Only PHE have this definition where no one recovers from COVID, essentially anyone who has tested positive will eventually be counted in the PHE series, even if they die two years from now by being hit by a bus. It's a worry for the DoH because loads of old people in homes who weren't far from death are now being counted as virus deaths after a positive test three or four months ago. That's also what accounts for the difference between the ONS showing ~200 deaths per week at the moment and falling by 20% per week vs PHE reporting upwards of 400 deaths per week and not falling. I think we're actually at around 15-20 deaths per day in the whole of the UK at the moment.
I tend to favour being pessimistic when it comes to COVID-19, but the PHE approach needs a cut-off otherwise eventually something like 4 million people in the UK are going to be recorded as COVID-19 deaths, even though some of them will not die for another 80-90 years.
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Whats happening there is similar to Europe in April. They enforce a stringent lockdown but cases keep going up.
No they didn’t. Stop talking utter bollocks.
From the BBC
Victoria reported 725 new infections on Wednesday, yet another daily record despite being four weeks into lockdown.
So? We know that lockdown works, it just lags. You want evidence? It worked in this country. It worked all across Europe. Your misleading agenda to suggest otherwise is just that. A complete fabrication.
Ok we will see where Melbourne is in a couple of weeks. I think the lockdown there is one of the most severe.
I had a thought that lockdown initially has an accelerating effect on cases and potentially deaths. Because what lockdown does is push people together for long periods (within families) where previously even they may have had more fleeting contact. And creates higher viral loads. After this initial period many of the ongoing chains are broken an numbers start to come down (albeit after a possible further secondary hospital spreading effect).
Yes, that could be true in theory, but in practice spread within a household must be quite easy. I think it is about 30% of all traced infections.
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
He has no need to do that prior to the day after the General Election. If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
On the contrary, if they are to have any hope of backing from elsewhere, the Labour Party needs to start preparing the ground now. Time after time the Labour leadership seems to be promising reforms, often at the last minute when they are desperate for votes. And then when Labour Party support is needed to get those reforms through, they are nowhere to be seen, or even actively opposed to them.
Blair, Miliband and Corbyn were all guilty of this. Labour are not to be trusted as far as you can see them... This is why they need to start working on the problem now, and there is as yet no sign that they have realised it.
Different scenarios. Blair didn't need help from other parties and Miliband/Corbyn were in opposition.
On the Flavible numbers the SNP will be in a more powerful position than the DUP was for May. They will demand an independence referendum and if one is promised and in the Queen's Speech they will vote for it. If it is refused they can simply vote down the Queen's Speech.
So why then in the run-up to the election, was there a tacit understanding between Ashdown and Blair, in order to finally get rid of the totally disfunctional Conservative government? The key to that understanding was electoral reform. And then Blair stabbed the Liberals in the back. As they usually do.
Would Blair have taken power if he had not smooched the Lib Dems in the run up? And presented the Labour Party as something acceptable to Lib Dems and all decent reasonable people? I think not. He had the mad Foot legacy to contend with, and needed to change his image. A shame he did not completely change the reality while he was about it.
Both Milliband and Corbyn had nice, tasty things in their manifestos. But they did not really mean them. Have you so soon forgotten the Labour Party´s betrayal over AV?
Blair proves my point not yours. Blair was laying the groundwork in case he needed Lib Dem support after the election - but all that went out the window the second the results came in as he realised he didn't need them. Exactly the same as Trudeau in Canada.
Miliband and Corbyn both lost. They themselves, their parties and their manifestos were unpopular. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
Whereas the closest the UK has ever come to electoral reform in Westminster was the AV referendum under a Tory Prime Minister. What soundings had the Tories done about electoral reform before the election? Absolutely none whatsoever. But it was the price the Lib Dems demanded for their support - and Cameron needed their support.
Ultimately the first rule of politics is to know how to count. If third parties hold the balance of power after the election they can try to demand what they want and that their potential partners are prepared to offer. But if the arithmetic renders them redundant then they are square out of luck - just like the Lib Dems in 1997 or the Canadian NDP in 2015.
The starting point of this discussion, made by some PB Tory, was that Starmer would come to power with the support of the SNP and the Lib Dems. My argument was that there is nothing inevitable about this, since the Labour Party has a long history of betrayal. As does the Conservative Party, of course. Neither is trustworthy.
If the Labour Party wants to build up trust, it needs to start working on that now. A policy that they have been supporting in the five years leading up to an election, would probably be more sincerely held than something they have grabbed hold of at the last minute.
At present, the two things that Starmer has going for him is that he is not Corbyn, and he is not Johnson. That, while valid, is hardly an overpowerful argument for supporting him.
It was the starting point, but I disagree. The reality is that it is a numbers game. "Trust" is less consequential to numbers and bartering afterwards.
In a hung parliament scenario post election horse trading will determine the outcome of what happens next. Trust will be difficult no doubt, but horse trading depends upon numbers. If the SNP + Lab are prepared to work together and have the numbers to work together then they will. If the numbers are there they won't. Same with the LDs and Lab.
In an ideal world you might want trust. We don't live in an ideal world. It will be cold, hard realpolitik that matters. Numbers and power will triumph over trust, just as it always has.
That might well be the case in Toryland, Mr Thompson, but that does not necessarily apply elsewhere. In the case of the Lib Dems, any kind of arrangement would need the approval of the membership. Our eyes are fully open. Trust is important.
It's how they count deaths in Scotland, Wales and NI as well as almost all other European countries. Only PHE have this definition where no one recovers from COVID, essentially anyone who has tested positive will eventually be counted in the PHE series, even if they die two years from now by being hit by a bus. It's a worry for the DoH because loads of old people in homes who weren't far from death are now being counted as virus deaths after a positive test three or four months ago. That's also what accounts for the difference between the ONS showing ~200 deaths per week at the moment and falling by 20% per week vs PHE reporting upwards of 400 deaths per week and not falling. I think we're actually at around 15-20 deaths per day in the whole of the UK at the moment.
I tend to favour being pessimistic when it comes to COVID-19, but the PHE approach needs a cut-off otherwise eventually something like 4 million people in the UK are going to be recorded as COVID-19 deaths, even though some of them will not die for another 80-90 years.
Does it really matter as it just feeds the pissing competition of your countries worse than mine. It’s not a competition.
Comments
Texas.
12/12/19 44.7% (General Election actual results)
31/01/20 44%
28/04/20 48%
26/05/20 46%
03/06/20 41%
10/06/20 42%
25/06/20 43%
06/07/20 44%
12/07/20 42%
03/08/20 44%
I'm not seeing a statistically significant loss of support there. Looks like an outlier in April but otherwise a fairly flat and consistent series.
Blair, Miliband and Corbyn were all guilty of this. Labour are not to be trusted as far as you can see them... This is why they need to start working on the problem now, and there is as yet no sign that they have realised it.
Victoria reported 725 new infections on Wednesday, yet another daily record despite being four weeks into lockdown.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852
Dem defense
VA, MN, NV, CO, NH
Key swing
PA, MI, FL, WI, AZ, NC
Reach targets
GA, TX, IA, OH
Boris ratings vs Starmer are pretty much what they were vs Corbyn, I think
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
December - March: Conservatives up, mostly at expense of LD, a bit at the expense of Labour.
April - May: Labour up, Conservatives down
June / July: roughly flat, with a 6 % Conservative lead. The interesting question is whether the Conservative voters now are the same voters they had in December. If I were a new RedBlue Wall MP, I'd be nervous that they weren't.
And if you compare the UK situation with France or Germany, the Covid bounces in those countries haven't really deflated.
I still think we should now be using he ONS series going forwards, they should drop the PHE series entirely and just do the once a week update from the ONS.
On the Flavible numbers the SNP will be in a more powerful position than the DUP was for May. They will demand an independence referendum and if one is promised and in the Queen's Speech they will vote for it. If it is refused they can simply vote down the Queen's Speech.
The positivity percentages are quite steady.
But I don't *think* that *all* of it is.
One point I would definitely agree on, from the article, is that the local lockdowns are being imposed at much lower levels of cases than the peak.
What is the positivity rate in Victoria?
1) Piers Morgan will achieve room temperature fusion
2) The death threats against PHE on twitter will be horrendous - "Murderous Tory Stooges" etc.
3) Which opposition MPs will make fools of themselves will be a betting market.
er, no. That is one data point.
People win the lottery. Should we accept their future number picks without reservation?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-hampshire-53662400/face-mask-found-in-chicken-nugget-in-aldershot
(IPSOS MORI only)
https://twitter.com/mikecoulson48/status/1290988554022256641/photo/1
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/
Would Blair have taken power if he had not smooched the Lib Dems in the run up? And presented the Labour Party as something acceptable to Lib Dems and all decent reasonable people? I think not. He had the mad Foot legacy to contend with, and needed to change his image. A shame he did not completely change the reality while he was about it.
Both Milliband and Corbyn had nice, tasty things in their manifestos. But they did not really mean them. Have you so soon forgotten the Labour Party´s betrayal over AV?
The question is - who has died of COVID?
The simple answer is - some of the people infected with it.
The best answer we are likely to have is tests and medical opinion.
Given that the concept of delayed death was good enough to put "Delayed death by war wounds" on death certificates a century ago, it should not be impossible to do for COVID.
I would suggest -
1) As a first approximation, the 28 day rule.
2) To be modified by death certificate (or other official documentation - see ONS) indicating that COVID caused delayed death - eg lung damage.
Can I suggest breaking it into two charts to represent the two Parliaments? Or putting a line at the point of the '87 General Election?
JFC
It must make sense to someone...
Obviously this first one will actually make Sturgeon more popular as no one likes Aberdeen and believe they deserve it but once Edinburgh and Glasgow get local lock downs reintroduced or school suspended there will be serious discontent.
Miliband and Corbyn both lost. They themselves, their parties and their manifestos were unpopular. So I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
Whereas the closest the UK has ever come to electoral reform in Westminster was the AV referendum under a Tory Prime Minister. What soundings had the Tories done about electoral reform before the election? Absolutely none whatsoever. But it was the price the Lib Dems demanded for their support - and Cameron needed their support.
Ultimately the first rule of politics is to know how to count. If third parties hold the balance of power after the election they can try to demand what they want and that their potential partners are prepared to offer. But if the arithmetic renders them redundant then they are square out of luck - just like the Lib Dems in 1997 or the Canadian NDP in 2015.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_End_(film)
We are already pretty nervous about returning to school. If cnuts are going on fucking pub crawls I am going to be pretty hair trigger about withdrawing my child from school.
In 1997 Blair's lead went up in a similar fashion, and apart from the fuel protests, he held on to a lead for over 8 years.
Boris' post-victory boost has already unwound, and we're heading into perhaps the worst recession any of us have ever seen.
Starmer has turned around the leadership issue, but the rest of the Labour house is still on fire. As the old leadership drift into the background, he'll likely turn that around too.
We're clearly in a hugely unusual time, but I suspect the Tories are very depressed by the current polling.
Headline - 13
7 Days - 12
Yesterday - 2
Nearly forgot - anyone using the last 3-5 days for anything other than going "hmmmm" is stupider than Piers Corbyn multiplied by Donald Fucking Trump.
Camerons lead on net satisfaction is in red, and his lead on positives in blue
If the Labour Party wants to build up trust, it needs to start working on that now. A policy that they have been supporting in the five years leading up to an election, would probably be more sincerely held than something they have grabbed hold of at the last minute.
At present, the two things that Starmer has going for him is that he is not Corbyn, and he is not Johnson. That, while valid, is hardly an overpowerful argument for supporting him.
Do you really want to draw conclusions on one days data - inside the last 3-5 days?
Blimey I know what I'd do if I had children.
In 2001 the Tories got 30.7% at the election. The Tories had polled at or above 30% not just from the fuel protests onwards, but in virtually every single poll in 2000.
The opinion polls at the election were fairly accurate for the Tories too. The error in the polling in the 1997-2001 Parliament was because there was an immediate post-election and until the next election swing from the Lib Dems to Labour.
What's happened this time? A swing from the Lib Dems to Labour. Just the same as then and many previous Parliaments.
As long as the Tories are polling in the mid-40s I think they'd be quite happy with that.
In a hung parliament scenario post election horse trading will determine the outcome of what happens next. Trust will be difficult no doubt, but horse trading depends upon numbers. If the SNP + Lab are prepared to work together and have the numbers to work together then they will. If the numbers are there they won't. Same with the LDs and Lab.
In an ideal world you might want trust. We don't live in an ideal world. It will be cold, hard realpolitik that matters. Numbers and power will triumph over trust, just as it always has.
Keep my Xyr old child at home = all safe and sound but sends them bonkers
Send them to school = normal childhood, reduces anxiety, and exposes them and their parents to some small degree of risk.
I'm sure @Alistair is one of those drive up to the school gates in a Range Rover Evoque kind of parents also just in case his children are exposed to any other kind of risks.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1290990224722591744?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1290987770924736513?s=20
New YouGov
Boris Johnson: 33% (-2)
Keir Starmer: 31% (-3)
Don't know: 33% (+4)