I cant see why being the most accurate at the last GE means we should take an individual pollster more seriously than others. Does it often happen that they are the most accurate next time as well?
Do you think net leader ratings/net satisfaction are better for the candidate than positives?
ie in the latest Survation, Starmer is 37-28 so +9, Boris is 43-43 so scratch. More people like Boris, but fewer dislike Starmer. But if all the people satisfied with the leader voted for that party, it would be 43-37 to the Conservatives, the net score is irrelevant
Would Starmer be pleased if his score was 45-48 (-3) in six months, because 8 more people like him and 45 wins GEs, or disappointed to have a net deficit, and wish he was still 37-28?
Looking at 2010-2015, with IPSOS MORI, Milibabnd led on net satisfaction quite often, approaching half of the time (24/56), but rarely had more positives than Cameron (9/56)
Do you think net leader ratings/net satisfaction are better for the candidate than positives?
ie in the latest Survation, Starmer is 37-28 so +9, Boris is 43-43 so scratch. More people like Boris, but fewer dislike Starmer. But if all the people satisfied with the leader voted for that party, it would be 43-37 to the Conservatives, the net score is irrelevant
Would Starmer be pleased if his score was 45-48 (-3) in six months, because 8 more people like him and 45 wins GEs, or disappointed to have a net deficit, and wish he was still 37-28?
Looking at 2010-2015, with IPSOS MORI, Milibabnd led on net satisfaction quite often, approaching half of the time (24/56), but rarely had more positives than Cameron 9/56)
So which is better, and why?
January 1984 Net Satisfaction
Maggie 48-45 (+3) Kinnock 35-22 (+13)
Kinnock leads by 10, or Maggie leads by 13?
Kinnock had better net satisfaction ratings than Maggie in 7/11 polls in 1984, but never had more positive "satisified's" then her.
I cant see why being the most accurate at the last GE means we should take an individual pollster more seriously than others. Does it often happen that they are the most accurate next time as well?
Well said. There will always be a "most accurate pollster", you need either excepptional results or good results over the long term for this to be useful for prediction.
The headline says "likely voters", but the premise relies on "definite voters"
I think that's a fair point. However looking at the detail Starmer still has clear lead taking all those with saying 8/10 or greater on their intention to vote. Johnson has 5% of his vote saying they rate their chances at 5/10 while with Starmer it is 1/10
I cant see why being the most accurate at the last GE means we should take an individual pollster more seriously than others. Does it often happen that they are the most accurate next time as well?
As far as I can remember, that almost never happens - the logical expectation is that a different pollster will be the most accurate at the next general election.
Another way of looking at the figures is that the Government is in the middle of handling the biggest peacetime crisis to hit the country in the last hundred years, whereas Labour has no responsibility for anything and nothing to do but moan endlessly from the sidelines - and they still can't get a lead in a single opinion poll!
Do you think net leader ratings/net satisfaction are better for the candidate than positives?
ie in the latest Survation, Starmer is 37-28 so +9, Boris is 43-43 so scratch. More people like Boris, but fewer dislike Starmer. But if all the people satisfied with the leader voted for that party, it would be 43-37 to the Conservatives, the net score is irrelevant
Would Starmer be pleased if his score was 45-48 (-3) in six months, because 8 more people like him and 45 wins GEs, or disappointed to have a net deficit, and wish he was still 37-28?
Looking at 2010-2015, with IPSOS MORI, Milibabnd led on net satisfaction quite often, approaching half of the time (24/56), but rarely had more positives than Cameron (9/56)
So which is better, and why?
That is an excellent observation isam.
Of course while we claim too often that people vote against a party the reality is that people do vote for a party. You can't write Not Them next to a party and leave it at that. If you go to vote and think "I hate the bloody Tories" and draw a cross next to the Tory party to mark your displeasure (or even a cock and balls) while leaving the rest of the paper blank then that would not count as a vote against the Tories, it would count as a vote for them.
So its an interesting question as to whether it is net favourability or simply favourability in the first place that is more important. Most of the time that will be the same thing, most of the time whoever is more net favourable is probably also most approved too - but in this case its not true.
It would be interesting if someone has the time to do an historical study looking at other times this has diverged to see which of the two statistics is most relevant.
Do you think net leader ratings/net satisfaction are better for the candidate than positives?
ie in the latest Survation, Starmer is 37-28 so +9, Boris is 43-43 so scratch. More people like Boris, but fewer dislike Starmer. But if all the people satisfied with the leader voted for that party, it would be 43-37 to the Conservatives, the net score is irrelevant
Would Starmer be pleased if his score was 45-48 (-3) in six months, because 8 more people like him and 45 wins GEs, or disappointed to have a net deficit, and wish he was still 37-28?
Looking at 2010-2015, with IPSOS MORI, Milibabnd led on net satisfaction quite often, approaching half of the time (24/56), but rarely had more positives than Cameron 9/56)
So which is better, and why?
January 1984 Net Satisfaction
Maggie 48-45 (+3) Kinnock 35-22 (+13)
Kinnock leads by 10, or Maggie leads by 13?
That's a fair point why taking the very first leader ratings at a net level can be distorting. Far too many voters will say don't know at that stage.
Tony Blair on Radio Five Live: further national lockdowns not economically viable.
Of course he`s right. The economy is in tatters already. And our freedoms alongside it. I`ve vacillated between optimism and despair over the last few months and I`m at the despair end at the moment I`m afraid.
Opinium is the current gold standard, but that used to be ICM, so I don;t think you can say "they’ve earned the right to have their methods accepted without reservation". I think there is something in the idea that Starmer is more popular among those who are more politically committed, the problem is that most people aren't. However, what Starmer is unquestionably is an overall positive for Labour. That in and of itself is good news if you want a viable alternative to this miserable government.
Do you think net leader ratings/net satisfaction are better for the candidate than positives?
ie in the latest Survation, Starmer is 37-28 so +9, Boris is 43-43 so scratch. More people like Boris, but fewer dislike Starmer. But if all the people satisfied with the leader voted for that party, it would be 43-37 to the Conservatives, the net score is irrelevant
Would Starmer be pleased if his score was 45-48 (-3) in six months, because 8 more people like him and 45 wins GEs, or disappointed to have a net deficit, and wish he was still 37-28?
Looking at 2010-2015, with IPSOS MORI, Milibabnd led on net satisfaction quite often, approaching half of the time (24/56), but rarely had more positives than Cameron (9/56)
So which is better, and why?
That is an excellent observation isam.
Of course while we claim too often that people vote against a party the reality is that people do vote for a party. You can't write Not Them next to a party and leave it at that. If you go to vote and think "I hate the bloody Tories" and draw a cross next to the Tory party to mark your displeasure (or even a cock and balls) while leaving the rest of the paper blank then that would not count as a vote against the Tories, it would count as a vote for them.
So its an interesting question as to whether it is net favourability or simply favourability in the first place that is more important. Most of the time that will be the same thing, most of the time whoever is more net favourable is probably also most approved too - but in this case its not true.
It would be interesting if someone has the time to do an historical study looking at other times this has diverged to see which of the two statistics is most relevant.
I have all the IPSOS-MORI's in a (messy) spreadsheet, I will try and share them when I have a break today
Do you think net leader ratings/net satisfaction are better for the candidate than positives?
ie in the latest Survation, Starmer is 37-28 so +9, Boris is 43-43 so scratch. More people like Boris, but fewer dislike Starmer. But if all the people satisfied with the leader voted for that party, it would be 43-37 to the Conservatives, the net score is irrelevant
Would Starmer be pleased if his score was 45-48 (-3) in six months, because 8 more people like him and 45 wins GEs, or disappointed to have a net deficit, and wish he was still 37-28?
Looking at 2010-2015, with IPSOS MORI, Milibabnd led on net satisfaction quite often, approaching half of the time (24/56), but rarely had more positives than Cameron 9/56)
So which is better, and why?
January 1984 Net Satisfaction
Maggie 48-45 (+3) Kinnock 35-22 (+13)
Kinnock leads by 10, or Maggie leads by 13?
That's a fair point why taking the very first leader ratings at a net level can be distorting. Far too many voters will say don't know at that stage.
Starmer's Don't Knows are now pretty low. He has a lot of Neithers. But when you look at best PM his numbers pretty much match Johnson's.
I cant see why being the most accurate at the last GE means we should take an individual pollster more seriously than others. Does it often happen that they are the most accurate next time as well?
And not a word from yesterday's Survation poll which showed the Tory lead growing. Hilarious.
Tony Blair on Radio Five Live: further national lockdowns not economically viable.
Of course he`s right. The economy is in tatters already. And our freedoms alongside it. I`ve vacillated between optimism and despair over the last few months and I`m at the despair end at the moment I`m afraid.
Can anyone cheer me up?
This was from a little while ago - a BBC report. This *suggests* that retail spending has rebounded. Which in turn suggests that the economic shock is going to be transfer of spend, rather than a depression style no-one-spends thing.
Anybody know what he was trying to show? The quality of the graph does look like the sort of thing that would have me telling a Y8 who handed it in as part of their homework to go away and try again...
Do you think net leader ratings/net satisfaction are better for the candidate than positives?
ie in the latest Survation, Starmer is 37-28 so +9, Boris is 43-43 so scratch. More people like Boris, but fewer dislike Starmer. But if all the people satisfied with the leader voted for that party, it would be 43-37 to the Conservatives, the net score is irrelevant
Would Starmer be pleased if his score was 45-48 (-3) in six months, because 8 more people like him and 45 wins GEs, or disappointed to have a net deficit, and wish he was still 37-28?
Looking at 2010-2015, with IPSOS MORI, Milibabnd led on net satisfaction quite often, approaching half of the time (24/56), but rarely had more positives than Cameron (9/56)
So which is better, and why?
That is an excellent observation isam.
Of course while we claim too often that people vote against a party the reality is that people do vote for a party. You can't write Not Them next to a party and leave it at that. If you go to vote and think "I hate the bloody Tories" and draw a cross next to the Tory party to mark your displeasure (or even a cock and balls) while leaving the rest of the paper blank then that would not count as a vote against the Tories, it would count as a vote for them.
So its an interesting question as to whether it is net favourability or simply favourability in the first place that is more important. Most of the time that will be the same thing, most of the time whoever is more net favourable is probably also most approved too - but in this case its not true.
It would be interesting if someone has the time to do an historical study looking at other times this has diverged to see which of the two statistics is most relevant.
I have all the IPSOS-MORI's in a (messy) spreadsheet, I will try and share them when I have a break today
If you have the time to do it, then it could make quite an interesting guest slot? Like your personality one that you did.
Certainly its not something I've ever looked into before so I don't know what the outcome will be, I suspect the same may be the case for others.
I cant see why being the most accurate at the last GE means we should take an individual pollster more seriously than others. Does it often happen that they are the most accurate next time as well?
As far as I can remember, that almost never happens - the logical expectation is that a different pollster will be the most accurate at the next general election.
Another way of looking at the figures is that the Government is in the middle of handling the biggest peacetime crisis to hit the country in the last hundred years, whereas Labour has no responsibility for anything and nothing to do but moan endlessly from the sidelines - and they still can't get a lead in a single opinion poll!
There are many ways to read the polls. In March, the Tories had a 26 point lead over Labour with Opinium, now it is three points - and that is before the scale of the economic damage done by the pandemic and Brexit become apparent.
Tony Blair on Radio Five Live: further national lockdowns not economically viable.
Of course he`s right. The economy is in tatters already. And our freedoms alongside it. I`ve vacillated between optimism and despair over the last few months and I`m at the despair end at the moment I`m afraid.
Can anyone cheer me up?
This was from a little while ago - a BBC report. This *suggests* that retail spending has rebounded. Which in turn suggests that the economic shock is going to be transfer of spend, rather than a depression style no-one-spends thing.
I cant see why being the most accurate at the last GE means we should take an individual pollster more seriously than others. Does it often happen that they are the most accurate next time as well?
And not a word from yesterday's Survation poll which showed the Tory lead growing. Hilarious.
Seeing as all the Government has had is constant criticism for ths past 5 months I find it amazing that they are ahead in any polls yet alone their lead increasing. This is a perfect storm for SKS and yet Labour are still behind.
I cant see why being the most accurate at the last GE means we should take an individual pollster more seriously than others. Does it often happen that they are the most accurate next time as well?
And not a word from yesterday's Survation poll which showed the Tory lead growing. Hilarious.
Seeing as all the Government has had is constant criticism for ths past 5 months I find it amazing that they are ahead in any polls yet alone their lead increasing. This is a perfect storm for SKS and yet Labour are still behind.
Labour don't need to be ahead for Starmer to be PM.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
I believe that is the heaviest object ever to take off and land vertically.
Has a heavier object ever taken off and landed horizontally then?
I don't know how heavy this early version of the Starship is, but it only has one Raptor engine capable of producing up to 200 tons of thrust, so it can't weigh more than 200 tons. It is therefore easily beaten by a large airliner in weight, so yes, heavier objects have taken off and landed horizontally. Not sure about vertically, though!
Opinium is the current gold standard, but that used to be ICM, so I don;t think you can say "they’ve earned the right to have their methods accepted without reservation". I think there is something in the idea that Starmer is more popular among those who are more politically committed, the problem is that most people aren't. However, what Starmer is unquestionably is an overall positive for Labour. That in and of itself is good news if you want a viable alternative to this miserable government.
Spot on.
For the first time in a very long time, the leader is a net positive for Labour.
I believe that is the heaviest object ever to take off and land vertically.
Has a heavier object ever taken off and landed horizontally then?
I don't know how heavy this early version of the Starship is, but it only has one Raptor engine capable of producing up to 200 tons of thrust, so it can't weigh more than 200 tons. It is therefore easily beaten by a large airliner in weight, so yes, heavier objects have taken off and landed horizontally. Not sure about vertically, though!
Thanks. It looks instinctively heavier than a jet but its perhaps not surprising that jets are in reality heavier.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
I believe that is the heaviest object ever to take off and land vertically.
Has a heavier object ever taken off and landed horizontally then?
I don't know how heavy this early version of the Starship is, but it only has one Raptor engine capable of producing up to 200 tons of thrust, so it can't weigh more than 200 tons. It is therefore easily beaten by a large airliner in weight, so yes, heavier objects have taken off and landed horizontally. Not sure about vertically, though!
An-225 has a max takeoff weight of 640 metric tons.
Pretty sure that this (SN5) is the VTOL record.
The heaviest object ever to fly and land record will fall sometime in the Starship project.
The seconds stage - of which this is an early test project - is 1300 tons at liftoff.
I believe that is the heaviest object ever to take off and land vertically.
Has a heavier object ever taken off and landed horizontally then?
I don't know how heavy this early version of the Starship is, but it only has one Raptor engine capable of producing up to 200 tons of thrust, so it can't weigh more than 200 tons. It is therefore easily beaten by a large airliner in weight, so yes, heavier objects have taken off and landed horizontally. Not sure about vertically, though!
Mi-12 had a MTOW of over 100 tons but never made it to production.
Mi-26 has a MTOW of about 55 tons. I've been in one and it's like a flying block of flats.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
If the SNP keeps the Tories in power Scottish Labour will bounce back quicker than Lazarus
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
The English veto for English laws (I won't deign to call it English votes for English laws as its not) is already a part of Commons procedure. So the Commons would need to vote to abolish that procedure in order to override the English veto.
I can't see why the SNP would do that. Not only would it play very badly in England for a PM to do that, but Westminster carnage plays into the SNPs hands.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
If the SNP keeps the Tories in power Scottish Labour will bounce back quicker than Lazarus
Yep, it's a very difficult one for them because a non-Tory government in Westminster will also make it tougher to make the case for independence based on the argument that the Scots do not get the kinids of UK government they want. What would happen, I think, is that the SNP would not vote against major legislation introduced by a Labour-led government, but would not enter into any formal arrangement to keep such a government in power.
@BluestBlue we’ve been talking about that exact poll in this thread already. Maybe learn to read?
And yet neither this header nor the last one made the slightest mention of this big Tory surge as they pushed their anti-Tory narrative. Maybe try not to be as deathly dull as your hero?
Starmer next PM (3.2), Tories Most seats (1.82) might be a betting combo worth looking into at the next GE if there is a small middle in % terms between the two. It's currently goosable by the possibility of either party changing leader before the GE hence the current 14% underround,.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
The English veto for English laws (I won't deign to call it English votes for English laws as its not) is already a part of Commons procedure. So the Commons would need to vote to abolish that procedure in order to override the English veto.
I can't see why the SNP would do that. Not only would it play very badly in England for a PM to do that, but Westminster carnage plays into the SNPs hands.
To be fair, once judicial review is neutered by the current government, future governments will have enough power to do as they wish without having to worry too much about Commons votes.
@BluestBlue we’ve been talking about that exact poll in this thread already. Maybe learn to read?
And yet neither this header nor the last one made the slightest mention of this big Tory surge as they pushed their anti-Tory narrative. Maybe try not to be as deathly dull as your hero?
You’re the one who prattles on about the same thing every day. You are far more boring than “my hero” will ever be.
If you don’t like the site, post on a different one, preferably a pro-Tory echo chamber as apparently that’s what you want.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
If the SNP keeps the Tories in power Scottish Labour will bounce back quicker than Lazarus
Yep, it's a very difficult one for them because a non-Tory government in Westminster will also make it tougher to make the case for independence based on the argument that the Scots do not get the kinids of UK government they want. What would happen, I think, is that the SNP would not vote against major legislation introduced by a Labour-led government, but would not enter into any formal arrangement to keep such a government in power.
Its not at all difficult for them. They can put Labour in government while ensuring they are rudderless and have no power.
If the Tories are able to routinely inflict defeats on Labour due to English votes then the SNP can portray Westminster as incompetent and the risk of the Tories coming back soon as real in contrast with the stability in Holyrood.
I cant see why being the most accurate at the last GE means we should take an individual pollster more seriously than others. Does it often happen that they are the most accurate next time as well?
As far as I can remember, that almost never happens - the logical expectation is that a different pollster will be the most accurate at the next general election.
Another way of looking at the figures is that the Government is in the middle of handling the biggest peacetime crisis to hit the country in the last hundred years, whereas Labour has no responsibility for anything and nothing to do but moan endlessly from the sidelines - and they still can't get a lead in a single opinion poll!
A quick glance at polling in other European countries dealing with the same crisis suggests that the idea that oppositions should do well in such crises is bollocks.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
If the SNP keeps the Tories in power Scottish Labour will bounce back quicker than Lazarus
Yep, it's a very difficult one for them because a non-Tory government in Westminster will also make it tougher to make the case for independence based on the argument that the Scots do not get the kinids of UK government they want. What would happen, I think, is that the SNP would not vote against major legislation introduced by a Labour-led government, but would not enter into any formal arrangement to keep such a government in power.
Its not at all difficult for them. They can put Labour in government while ensuring they are rudderless and have no power.
If the Tories are able to routinely inflict defeats on Labour due to English votes then the SNP can portray Westminster as incompetent and the risk of the Tories coming back soon as real in contrast with the stability in Holyrood.
Exactly why Starmer would be better off not becoming PM in such a scenario, and let the Government flounder in power, but with no real power.
Tony Blair on Radio Five Live: further national lockdowns not economically viable.
Of course he`s right. The economy is in tatters already. And our freedoms alongside it. I`ve vacillated between optimism and despair over the last few months and I`m at the despair end at the moment I`m afraid.
Can anyone cheer me up?
I wish Blair was still prime minister. He sounded like he understood the problems posed by the current crisis so much better than current politicians.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
@BluestBlue we’ve been talking about that exact poll in this thread already. Maybe learn to read?
And yet neither this header nor the last one made the slightest mention of this big Tory surge as they pushed their anti-Tory narrative. Maybe try not to be as deathly dull as your hero?
You’re the one who prattles on about the same thing every day. You are far more boring than “my hero” will ever be.
If you don’t like the site, post on a different one, preferably a pro-Tory echo chamber as apparently that’s what you want.
I'm dropping in a couple of times a week at the moment, so you're not even correct about that. What I'd like is some balance, with which the occlusion of good polls for one side is hardly compatible. But do carry on.
@BluestBlue we’ve been talking about that exact poll in this thread already. Maybe learn to read?
And yet neither this header nor the last one made the slightest mention of this big Tory surge as they pushed their anti-Tory narrative. Maybe try not to be as deathly dull as your hero?
You’re the one who prattles on about the same thing every day. You are far more boring than “my hero” will ever be.
If you don’t like the site, post on a different one, preferably a pro-Tory echo chamber as apparently that’s what you want.
I'm dropping in a couple of times a week at the moment, so you're not even correct about that. What I'd like is some balance, with which the occlusion of good polls for one side is hardly compatible. But do carry on.
Feel free to write an article about how well the government is doing.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
If the SNP keeps the Tories in power Scottish Labour will bounce back quicker than Lazarus
Yep, it's a very difficult one for them because a non-Tory government in Westminster will also make it tougher to make the case for independence based on the argument that the Scots do not get the kinids of UK government they want. What would happen, I think, is that the SNP would not vote against major legislation introduced by a Labour-led government, but would not enter into any formal arrangement to keep such a government in power.
Its not at all difficult for them. They can put Labour in government while ensuring they are rudderless and have no power.
If the Tories are able to routinely inflict defeats on Labour due to English votes then the SNP can portray Westminster as incompetent and the risk of the Tories coming back soon as real in contrast with the stability in Holyrood.
Exactly why Starmer would be better off not becoming PM in such a scenario, and let the Government flounder in power, but with no real power.
A risky gambit though as it gives the possibility of the Tories getting a change in leader then the subsequent election could produce a swing to the government like 2019 saw after 2017.
If Labour have an opportunity to get a majority but on condition of an independent referendum, only to turn it down, I'm not convinced they'll be rewarded subsequently for that. It could see polarising as Scotland goes further back to the SNP for being ignored - and England goes further back to the Tories.
@BluestBlue we’ve been talking about that exact poll in this thread already. Maybe learn to read?
And yet neither this header nor the last one made the slightest mention of this big Tory surge as they pushed their anti-Tory narrative. Maybe try not to be as deathly dull as your hero?
You’re the one who prattles on about the same thing every day. You are far more boring than “my hero” will ever be.
If you don’t like the site, post on a different one, preferably a pro-Tory echo chamber as apparently that’s what you want.
I'm dropping in a couple of times a week at the moment, so you're not even correct about that. What I'd like is some balance, with which the occlusion of good polls for one side is hardly compatible. But do carry on.
Feel free to write an article about how well the government is doing.
Unparalleled success in most COVID deaths and most corruption.
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
He has no need to do that prior to the day after the General Election.
If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
There has been a 50% swing from Lab to Green in chez BJO.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
There has been a 50% swing from Lab to Green in chez BJO.
Mrs BJ cannot stand SKS
Whereas Mr BJO seems like such a fan of Captain Hindsight.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
The strange thing, historically, is that the government is polling so well.
Over the years, what *seems* to be the way things go, is that the election is won, and quite rapidly the gap closes and often the opposition takes the lead. Pundits talk about the political cycle, the opposition revels in being in front....
I would discount the massive leads for the government from early in the crisis. Similar things were seen round the world - rally-round-the-government, etc.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
There has been a 50% swing from Lab to Green in chez BJO.
Mrs BJ cannot stand SKS
Whereas Mr BJO seems like such a fan of Captain Hindsight.
I am happy to stick with Labour and would love to see a Labour Government in 2024
Long Tory recession makes that a probability IMO
I am even keener to see a Labour run Derbyshire starting next May from a personal (Adult Social Care) reason
What you really mean, I hthink, is that "Opinium makes Starmer UK PM" provided he does enough to win over the support of SNP and LD MPs. I don´t think he has even started doing that yet.
SNP could never do formal deal or they would be sunk, best they could get away with would be informal deal with guaranteed referendum.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
The strange thing, historically, is that the government is polling so well.
Over the years, what *seems* to be the way things go, is that the election is won, and quite rapidly the gap closes and often the opposition takes the lead. Pundits talk about the political cycle, the opposition revels in being in front....
I would discount the massive leads for the government from early in the crisis. Similar things were seen round the world - rally-round-the-government, etc.
But the UK government has now lost that advantage whereas other governments round the world have not.
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
The Tories could only veto English laws if the majority in the Commons allowed them to.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
If the SNP keeps the Tories in power Scottish Labour will bounce back quicker than Lazarus
Yep, it's a very difficult one for them because a non-Tory government in Westminster will also make it tougher to make the case for independence based on the argument that the Scots do not get the kinids of UK government they want. What would happen, I think, is that the SNP would not vote against major legislation introduced by a Labour-led government, but would not enter into any formal arrangement to keep such a government in power.
Its not at all difficult for them. They can put Labour in government while ensuring they are rudderless and have no power.
If the Tories are able to routinely inflict defeats on Labour due to English votes then the SNP can portray Westminster as incompetent and the risk of the Tories coming back soon as real in contrast with the stability in Holyrood.
Thwey could do that, I suppose. It comes with a lot of risk, especially as there are ways to make legislaiton UK-wide while retaining a focus on England. And, as I say, the current government's blocking of judicial review and other power grabs will make Commons votes far less important in the first place.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
Do you think Covid may also have played a part?
I think that unless you have experienced it directly -or know someone who has - covid in and of itself is unlikely to be much of a factor. Most people's experience of the pandemic is the furlough scheme. The real economic fall-out has yet to become a day-to-day factor in most people's lives.
I was pleasantly surprised that several of the btl comments were more attached to reality than the piece itself, something which I had been led to believed was not generally the case on Conhome.
From the July figures and extrapolating forwards with current data we've updated our Q3 forecast to 13.4% GDP growth, albeit from a lower base, that will leave the economy around 10% smaller at the end of September than the pre-virus peak. Q4 is a complete unknown for now as we don't know whether there is any chance of a vaccine or if there is going to be a serious second wave.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
The strange thing, historically, is that the government is polling so well.
Over the years, what *seems* to be the way things go, is that the election is won, and quite rapidly the gap closes and often the opposition takes the lead. Pundits talk about the political cycle, the opposition revels in being in front....
I would discount the massive leads for the government from early in the crisis. Similar things were seen round the world - rally-round-the-government, etc.
But the UK government has now lost that advantage whereas other governments round the world have not.
Even other governments within the UK have managed (so far) not to lose that advantage...
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
Do you think Covid may also have played a part?
I think that unless you have experienced it directly -or know someone who has - covid in and of itself is unlikely to be much of a factor. Most people's experience of the pandemic is the furlough scheme. The real economic fall-out has yet to become a day-to-day factor in most people's lives.
I am one of those who doesn't know anyone who has had Covid nor do I know anyone who knows someone who has had it. With the number of positive tests I thought I would of.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
There has been a 50% swing from Lab to Green in chez BJO.
Mrs BJ cannot stand SKS
Whereas Mr BJO seems like such a fan of Captain Hindsight.
The guy was elected leader by a landslide. Aren't Labour supporters who dislike the leader supposed to suck it up and respect the democratic mandate or something?
Tony Blair on Radio Five Live: further national lockdowns not economically viable.
Of course he`s right. The economy is in tatters already. And our freedoms alongside it. I`ve vacillated between optimism and despair over the last few months and I`m at the despair end at the moment I`m afraid.
Can anyone cheer me up?
This was from a little while ago - a BBC report. This *suggests* that retail spending has rebounded. Which in turn suggests that the economic shock is going to be transfer of spend, rather than a depression style no-one-spends thing.
Depends what you mean by rebounded. Retail spending in June is roughly where you would have expected it, but the losses in the months before have not been recouped.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Comparing Survation with the baseline of the General Election, I assume Survation are GB only polling
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
There has been a 50% swing from Lab to Green in chez BJO.
Mrs BJ cannot stand SKS
Whereas Mr BJO seems like such a fan of Captain Hindsight.
The guy was elected leader by a landslide. Aren't Labour supporters who dislike the leader supposed to suck it up and respect the democratic mandate or something?
Starmer's approval numbers among Labour voters in all the polls are way hihgher than Corbyn's ever were, but he is absolutely hated on the far-left. There may be a connection, of course.
Also, Sweden has seen an 8.6% drop in GDP in Q2 and their June/July data doesn't signal a V shaped bounce back in the same way it does in other European countries. They've also seen a larger GDP drop than their neighbours who locked down early.
I don't think we have detailed forecasts for Sweden, but I may task the team to do some so we can get a sense of how that strategy changes the economic outlook.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
Do you think Covid may also have played a part?
I think that unless you have experienced it directly -or know someone who has - covid in and of itself is unlikely to be much of a factor. Most people's experience of the pandemic is the furlough scheme. The real economic fall-out has yet to become a day-to-day factor in most people's lives.
Surely most people's experience of the pandemic is/was the lockdown, which had a significant impact on nigh on 100% of the population. I don't know what proportion of the UK population were furloughed but it can't have been anywhere near that high.
A factor at the moment when considering polls is that there are no real elections taking place. All local elections and mayoralty ones have been postponed till 2021 and there have been no parliamentary by-elections. Normally we get the regular Thursday local by-elections. This means that there a few other measures we can look at.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
Indeed. As OGH points out there are no elections with which to contextualise the polls. Its all a bit phoney war at the moment with regards to who is popular or not.
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
Even the Survation poll continues the Starmer narrative. His own ratings improved in it, while Johnson's went down.
To me it seems to be a difference in the Tory voteshare that's making the difference, all polls show the gap has shrunk - considerably - over the last few months.
Yep - all te polling shows that since Starmer became leader the Labour vote share has gone up. It could be by a bit or by a decent amount. What is less clear is whether the Tories are retaining all of their GE support or have lost a small part of it. What we do know is that they have lost support since the change of Labour leadership and Cummings went walkabout.
No we don't know that.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
The tories have lost support from the time that Starmer took over.
You can argue the toss over whether that is due to Starmer or due to the government's handling of Sars-Cov-2. Arguing the toss: there was a significant increase in tory support between the election and the first UK-Covid death. Also many other governments have so far held onto their Corona-Bounce but the the UK-Government has not.
Comments
ie in the latest Survation, Starmer is 37-28 so +9, Boris is 43-43 so scratch. More people like Boris, but fewer dislike Starmer. But if all the people satisfied with the leader voted for that party, it would be 43-37 to the Conservatives, the net score is irrelevant
Would Starmer be pleased if his score was 45-48 (-3) in six months, because 8 more people like him and 45 wins GEs, or disappointed to have a net deficit, and wish he was still 37-28?
Looking at 2010-2015, with IPSOS MORI, Milibabnd led on net satisfaction quite often, approaching half of the time (24/56), but rarely had more positives than Cameron (9/56)
So which is better, and why?
Maggie 48-45 (+3)
Kinnock 35-22 (+13)
Kinnock leads by 10, or Maggie leads by 13?
Kinnock had better net satisfaction ratings than Maggie in 7/11 polls in 1984, but never had more positive "satisified's" then her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1HA9LlFNM0&feature=youtu.be
I believe that is the heaviest object ever to take off and land vertically.
Another way of looking at the figures is that the Government is in the middle of handling the biggest peacetime crisis to hit the country in the last hundred years, whereas Labour has no responsibility for anything and nothing to do but moan endlessly from the sidelines - and they still can't get a lead in a single opinion poll!
Of course while we claim too often that people vote against a party the reality is that people do vote for a party. You can't write Not Them next to a party and leave it at that. If you go to vote and think "I hate the bloody Tories" and draw a cross next to the Tory party to mark your displeasure (or even a cock and balls) while leaving the rest of the paper blank then that would not count as a vote against the Tories, it would count as a vote for them.
So its an interesting question as to whether it is net favourability or simply favourability in the first place that is more important. Most of the time that will be the same thing, most of the time whoever is more net favourable is probably also most approved too - but in this case its not true.
It would be interesting if someone has the time to do an historical study looking at other times this has diverged to see which of the two statistics is most relevant.
Can anyone cheer me up?
Certainly its not something I've ever looked into before so I don't know what the outcome will be, I suspect the same may be the case for others.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1290276072328634370?s=19
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1290683348998918146?s=19
Looks like that might be a Tory majority in England but a Lab+SNP government which constitutionally is the messiest of all scenarios and could lead to both the Tories being able to veto any English laws . . . and the SNP trying to pull the plug on the Labour government by seeking independence.
For the first time in a very long time, the leader is a net positive for Labour.
That said, there will not be a Labour/SNP government. The last thing that the SNP wants is a Labour PM.
Pretty sure that this (SN5) is the VTOL record.
The heaviest object ever to fly and land record will fall sometime in the Starship project.
The seconds stage - of which this is an early test project - is 1300 tons at liftoff.
The first stage will be 3500 tons at liftoff.
Mi-26 has a MTOW of about 55 tons. I've been in one and it's like a flying block of flats.
Lol - at least pretend to cover polling that doesn't slavishly follow the pro-Starmer narrative
That's a +5 net surge for the Tories with the latest Survation, producing a 9-point lead!
I can't see why the SNP would do that. Not only would it play very badly in England for a PM to do that, but Westminster carnage plays into the SNPs hands.
It's currently goosable by the possibility of either party changing leader before the GE hence the current 14% underround,.
If you don’t like the site, post on a different one, preferably a pro-Tory echo chamber as apparently that’s what you want.
If the Tories are able to routinely inflict defeats on Labour due to English votes then the SNP can portray Westminster as incompetent and the risk of the Tories coming back soon as real in contrast with the stability in Holyrood.
I'm dropping in a couple of times a week at the moment, so you're not even correct about that. What I'd like is some balance, with which the occlusion of good polls for one side is hardly compatible. But do carry on.
Opinium = SKSIBIPM (SKS is Boring is PM)
If Labour have an opportunity to get a majority but on condition of an independent referendum, only to turn it down, I'm not convinced they'll be rewarded subsequently for that. It could see polarising as Scotland goes further back to the SNP for being ignored - and England goes further back to the Tories.
CON 44 (-0.7)
LAB 35 (+2.0)
LDEM 8 (-3.8)
GRN 5 (+2.2)
Tory share is barely moved, its almost a rounding error away from being unchanged completely. All others are within margin of error except the Lib Dems. Story seems to be a swing from the Lib Dems to Lab and Green Party.
If that outcome happened it doesn't matter what is said between now and the General Election, the SNP will demand a second independence referendum as their pound of flesh to give Labour support. If they get it, they will be won over. If they don't, it will be messy.
Mrs BJ cannot stand SKS
Over the years, what *seems* to be the way things go, is that the election is won, and quite rapidly the gap closes and often the opposition takes the lead. Pundits talk about the political cycle, the opposition revels in being in front....
I would discount the massive leads for the government from early in the crisis. Similar things were seen round the world - rally-round-the-government, etc.
Long Tory recession makes that a probability IMO
I am even keener to see a Labour run Derbyshire starting next May from a personal (Adult Social Care) reason
'Graham Gudgin: Now is the time to combat Scottish Nationalism'
https://tinyurl.com/y6xu5ke5
I was pleasantly surprised that several of the btl comments were more attached to reality than the piece itself, something which I had been led to believed was not generally the case on Conhome.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-three-sunderland-pubs-shut-after-drinker-has-big-night-out-while-awaiting-covid-test-results/ar-BB17AtCZ?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds
https://twitter.com/mark_mclaughlin/status/1290968539487182849?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1290794273261133824?s=20
I don't think we have detailed forecasts for Sweden, but I may task the team to do some so we can get a sense of how that strategy changes the economic outlook.
I don't know what proportion of the UK population were furloughed but it can't have been anywhere near that high.
There was internationally in all countries a rally around the flag surge to government parties that has subsequently unwound in most countries.
The government is currently polling at or around the same levels as it was at the General Election, that doesn't look like any support has been lost, unless you considered for some bizarre and unforeseen reason the peak of a surge to be sustainable.
When the Tories are polling 44% you can't say the Tories have lost support.
This will be bad news for the gold Coast, which is a resort in QLD, but the airport which serves it is in NSW.
People were shocked by Schengen borders between EU countires being closed in March. I don't remember any within country borders in Schengen being closed. It tended rather to be travel restrictions as a distance from home (eg France).
I would expect Sturgeon popularity polling to start declining sharply.
You can argue the toss over whether that is due to Starmer or due to the government's handling of Sars-Cov-2. Arguing the toss: there was a significant increase in tory support between the election and the first UK-Covid death. Also many other governments have so far held onto their Corona-Bounce but the the UK-Government has not.
Her approach has always been a totalitarian 'keep the people under control, restrict their freedoms' approach.