politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some Trump (sore) loser bets
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some Trump (sore) loser bets
StarSports have some markets up on what Trump might do about the 2020 election.
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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some Trump (sore) loser bets
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https://apnews.com/fe694f1775ca46a79335db5f24ee0817
Kamala Harris: 2.42
Susan Rice: 4.1
Karen Bass: 8.2
Tammy Duckworth: 11
Elizabeth Warren: 14
Val Demings: 29
Gretchen Whitmer: 44
Michelle Obama: 46
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 70
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 100
Hillary Clinton: 110
Barack Obama: 400
Tammy Baldwin: 500
Stacey Abrams: 510
Vanilla only.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/scmp-hong-kong-china-media/614719/
It’s not entirely a government mouthpiece - it’s website is still blocked in mainland China - but it needs to read with deep scepticism.
Hundreds of ‘mystery cases’ have forced decision in Australian state
Strict four stage lockdown rules announced, restrictions to last until at least 13 Sept
There will be additional limits to the four reasons to leave home. You will no longer be able to leave home and go any further away from your home than a 5km radius. You will not be able to be at any point more than 5km away from your home for the purposes of shopping for what you need. Only one person will be able to go shopping once per day and they will need to secure the goods and services that are what you need within a 5km radius. In terms of exercise, recreational activity is now no longer allowed. You will be able to have one hour of exercise, no further than 5km from your home. And there will no longer be able to be groups any bigger than two, regardless of whether they’re from your family or someone else.
Mr. B2, very sad news to hear. Hope it dies down quickly.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/31/harris-allies-biden-call-dodd-389848
Seems a bit too detailed to be uninformed speculation.
Interesting that Great Bear Republic has not one but TWO favorite daughters. And GOP appears to be focusing it's guns right now on US Representative Karen Bass.
HOWEVER my point remains - all we see of this "race" are flashes in the tunnel - until someone finally emerges.
Hong Kong 'seeking arrest' of fleeing activists
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53616583
... Chinese state TV network CCTV said six people were wanted on suspicion of inciting secession or colluding with foreign forces - both crimes can be punished with up to life in prison under the new security law....
... Samuel Chu, a US citizen. He is the son of Reverend Chu Yiu Ming, a Baptist minister who was one of the founders of the 2014 "Umbrella Movement".
Mr Chu runs the Washington DC-based Hong Kong Democracy Council and said he last visited Hong Kong in November 2019.
"I might be the first non-Chinese citizen to be targeted, but I will not be the last. If I am targeted, any American and any citizen of any nation who speaks out for Hong Kong can, and will be, too," he said.
The national security law carries extraterritorial provisions that say anyone, including non-Hong Kong residents, can be charged under it...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/01/end-the-prejudice-against-travellers-police-chief
Speaking after the three killers of PC Andrew Harper were jailed for manslaughter, Janette McCormick, deputy chief constable at the College of Policing, said attention was required to tackle the inequality and job prospects facing Travellers.
“There seems to be a deep-seated and accepted prejudice that demonises people from the community. You wouldn’t call any other ethnicity inherently criminal,” said McCormick, also the National Police Chiefs’ Council lead for Gypsies, Roma and Travellers.
“There is no evidence to suggest we have a disproportionately high crime rate around Traveller sites,” she said.
Betting PostF1: I'll write this up properly when less sleepy but Bottas is 5.25 with boost on Ladbrokes to win. Each way that's a third the odd stop 2 which is too long.
Also, with boost, Leclerc is 6.5 for a podium. If you want to you can hedge that right now on Betfair at 5.8 for zero risk and green if he gets it. I'll probably set up a hedge at 3 or suchlike instead.
Edited extra bit: does look like no penalty for Leclerc but do check for yourself.
https://www.fia.com/sites/default/files/decision-document/2020 British Grand Prix - Decision - Car 16 - Alleged unsafe release.pdf
Usually they ask the team for a large monetary contribution to the FIA Christmas Party Fund for these, but it seems that even the stewards are feeling sorry for the weekend Ferrari are having!
I’m with you on Bottas being too long for the win, weight of British money going on Lewis stortening his price.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/08/uk-pre-race-2020.html
(Back to lurking).
In other news, I see that the KKK is backing Trump for 2020 and they want a Fox News man to replace Pence.
Councils don't create a sufficient number of pitches to provide all their travellers with places to go - but then again, when they do stuff like this it's small wonder that they provoke furious Nimbyism. Would you want this going on regularly in your backyard?
The Ferrari isn't fantastic but it's in relatively good shape. Red Bull's faster but seems a little more fragile/twitchy.
Feel a bit sorry for Albon.
I think Red Bull paid the price for their overt Vettel favouritism with Ricciardo's departure, as he didn't fancy being a number two driver.
A post about political betting on political betting, and I want to talk about cabbages.
That 5km in Oz looks serious; there are probably plenty of places around Melbourne where there is hardly anything with 5km.
EASTBOUND AND DOWN
Jerry Reed, Dick Feller
East bound and down, loaded up and truckin'
We're gonna do what they say can't be done
We've got a long way to go and a short time to get there
I'm east bound, just watch old Bandit run
Keep your foot hard on the pedal, son never mind them brakes
Let it all hang out, 'cause we got a run to make
The boys are thirsty in Atlanta and there's beer in Texarkana
And we'll bring it back no matter what it takes
East bound and down, loaded up and truckin'
We're gonna do what they say can't be done
We've got a long way to go and a short time to get there
I'm east bound, just watch old Bandit run
Old Smokey's got his ears on, he's hot on your trail
And he ain't gonna rest 'til you're in jail
So you gotta dodge him, you've gotta duck him
You gotta keep that diesel truckin'
Just put that hammer down and give it hell
East bound and down, loaded up and truckin'
Oh, we gonna do what they say can't be done
We've got a long way to go and a short time to get there
I'm east bound, just watch old Bandit run
Paddy: I am thinking of buying a dog. A labrador maybe.
Nerys: a dangerous breed, Paddy, have you not seen how many of their owners go blind?
Mask rage: ‘One man told me I shouldn't be allowed out if I can't wear one’
In the past few weeks, Paul Feeley has been abused four times for not wearing a mask on public transport. “I have a disability lanyard, which signifies I have a hidden disability. I tried to show it … And all I got back was a complete torrent of abuse.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/01/mask-face-coverings-i-cant-wear-one-health-reasons
This is a total non-surprise. My husband, whose asthma is sufficiently bad that he was put on the shielding list and struggles with mask-wearing for extended periods, is nonetheless lumbered with using a rag primarily for this reason. Although it is mercifully unlikely, if we do nonetheless encounter some self-righteous, beetroot-faced screamer in a shop or on a train then they aren't going to be interested in excuses, are they?
There's not a day goes by where we're not bombarded with messages about human rights, but the right that trumps all others would now seem to be the right to scream in somebody else's face if you feel offended about something - hence the fact that the ban on mass gatherings is deemed not to apply to angry protest marches. Johnson probably ought to go on TV and instruct the general public simply to desist from trying to police mask wearing themselves, but I doubt that this would do anything to discourage such vigilantism. The people doing it enjoy their petty power trip far too much.
I recreated a vegetable garden from lawn at the start of lockdown. I was worried that things would get back to normal and I would let the garden revert to grass, but that looks less of an issue just now.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/07/republicans-masks-coronavirus-polls.html
Without the masks they would be stacking bodies in piles.
Mask wearing working a treat there then
Likewise masks, a little uncomfortable, however they might prevent transmission of a disease which could have a similar ultimate outcome.
* Delete as appropriate
I got some compost in on the day we locked down, and no less (oops!) fewer than 3 neighbours had some to get them going; one has built a brick raised bed that looks like an escapee from Chateau Monty Don.
I am now officially outraged.
In fact Trump was held up as a beacon of best practice!
After all, if he was set on fire it would limit the damage he does.
Whilst the government gets lots of criticism, often quite rightly, I think the recent restrictions on home gatherings are spot on, they are a significant driver of infection growth out here in Spain. They do need to smarten up the implementation though to not distract from the message.
I suspect in future more incongruous buildings will slip through the net.
This probably was survivable:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/510117-vp-contender-karen-bass-explains-her-2010-remarks-praising-scientology
The Cuban thing probably too big of a risk, given the importance of Florida:
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/08/01/as-biden-considers-bass-trump-makes-florida-move-1304584
At least with someone like Harris, it’s more likely the negatives have already been aired.
Time to go, it is getting silly here again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53625829
... There are also reports that the Conservative Party's chief whip, Mark Spencer, had been aware of allegations - and previously spoke with the alleged victim.
According to sources, Mr Spencer had not known the "magnitude" of the allegations....
Bad conversions of commercial property into tiny shoebox flats, which will end up as slums - which has already started, as per the notorious eyesore described here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-47720887
AND
Large tracts of very small, crappy new houses, sold for hugely inflated prices and subsequently found to be full of defects, and without adequate roads, public transport links, additional capacity for local schools and GPs, or any other necessary infrastructure provided
In short, homes will probably end up getting built in much greater numbers - which will enable the Government to trumpet its successes through the raw statistics - but most of these homes will be total shit.
A good ground rule is never bet on anything that you cannot lay.
Because Johnson will throw him to the wolves to save his own worthless skin.
If Brexit Britain were a movie scene.
seems the donald liked it
https://video-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t42.4659-2/94947250_2497908533644509_2785752523040882688_n.mp4?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=73e57b&_nc_ohc=dj_2tD9OclQAX_iBihD&_nc_ht=video-lht6-1.xx&oh=2a47d9b3bf859bc7e658da92c422080f&oe=5F269A28
Mr. B, let's hope justice is done.
"There is no evidence" actually means "we choose not to gather any evidence".
This is a 2010 FOI:
"Our information is set up and searchable for our policing purposes. ‘Traveller’ is not recorded on our system as an ethnicity or occupation. We would not be permitted to record ‘Traveller’ as a person type due to Human Rights.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/45437/response/115334/attach/4/2010 367 Published Response.pdf
Interestingly it just changed. From an FOI this year.
This year 2020 April the Home Office made 18+1, including Gypsy and Irish Traveller a classification for victims, staff, stop / search and offenders a requirement. Prior to that, other than local recording and analysis, there was no ability to compare ethnicity, location and crime at a national level.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/661906/response/1578724/attach/5/122 20 NPCC response letter GRT Statement.doc.pdf
A question which needs rather more clear thinking abut data collection - I think some crime is linked to ethnicity, even if indirectly, for many different ethnicities. But the issue is when the thinking starts being formed as community -> crime.
But there are other particular crimes where community (or communities) is an appropriate category for analysis.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/01/business/corporate-business/nvidia-arm-softbank/
Of course there was a premium on the price because of it - it was more desirable.
Remember its only the “good” Victorian housing that still stands. The sh*t has been long bulldozed.
The changes to permitted development *for existing dwellings* AIUI seem to be relatively moderate.
And changes for change of use are probably appropriate given the Corona impact on society, but standards and enforcement are the keys.
But establishing the principle does make a big difference, once that's gone the strength of objections to specificities is much less persuasive since if they are nimby objections people cannot help but demonstrate they actually object to anything being approved not just the detail of that application, and if the principal is already there they flounder.
It suggests that someone (the civil service?) will divide all land into “growth”, “renewal”, and “protected” categories.
I assume most, if not all, of the current “Green Belt” will be “protected” so really this scheme is to simply encourage building on brown field sites that nobody wants to build on at present?
@Cyclefree did you say your husband was a planning barrister? Does he/you have any thoughts on this?
A couple of weeks ago I reported that I maybe saw one mask-wearer a week. That has crept up to maybe three a week. And I am out and about a lot.
They are still so rare that my wife and I usually comment if we see one.
Back to work tomorrow after my 6 weeks and 2 days (!!) summer hols, so I’ll soon find out what culture is prevailing at my workplace. There was some dissatisfaction with management over their Covid19 response before I left, but my expectations of change are very low. Almost nothing of note happens in Swedish workplaces during June-August.
(!! even in the annals of super-generous Swedish leave, I’ve just set a personal best in lazy summers.)
I'm not sure when the Rook household might move up to something a bit larger - being mortgage-free is a considerable blessing, especially in the current economic climate - but if and when this happens I wouldn't touch a new build with the proverbial barge pole. They're expensive and horrible and they might fall down around your ears five minutes after you've signed the contract. Why risk it?
i still chuckle at this cri de coeur from Deborah Orr blaming an "inherent defect" in a Victorian house for a bit that fell off 125 years later, and then blaming the insurance company for pointing out that it was very old.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/may/25/deborah-orr-roof-collapse-insurance
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2012/jun/02/deborah-orr-roof-silent-disaster
There’s a huge misconception in the UK that “brick” and “stone” is good and everything else is bad.
I couldn’t buy an older property now that I am used to new build thermal performance. It really is night and day.
Regardless, you are right that there are other issues with design. I’m lucky that I did 2 years worth of research so that my house (built in 2018) actually has very good room proportions, and a double side by side drive - something rare in a new build in my price range.
You are right to highlight the leasehold problem, but it gets deeper than that. All new build homes are now freehold but with management companys. An arrangement that offers even less rights than leaseholders posses. I’ve wrote quite a few times about it on here but it attracts little interest.
I suspect that the arguments over whether they do more good than harm or more harm than good in non-clinical settings will probably never be resolved adequately. Whatever. My original point wasn't to do with the utility of masks but rather with the way in which they've been mobilized as yet another excuse to abuse people.
I'm telling people to avoid these betting markets and find value elsewhere if they think it will happen.
Terms like 'I’m not touching the 8/1 on the 2020 election not to take place given the constitutional and legal impediments'
Then there's 'I think I’ll stick to laying Trump over on Betfair, at slightly lower odds of just under 2/1.'
Finally, 'If you’re tempted to back the 10/1 on Trump pulling out of the 2020 campaign I think you’re better off backing Mike Pence over on Betfair to be the winner of the 2020 election or the GOP nominee at 220/1 and 30/1 respectively.'
If you think that is promoting, I'd spend the rest of the year on some English lessons.
Their scientists do not believe masks work and they may even hinder the control of the virus.
In Germany there were vast protests yesterday against lockdown.
I posted yesterday that what threatens the Johnson government is evidence others are pulling out of this without any of the horrible stuff we are having to endure.
One SAGE guy yesterday threatened us with tanks on the streets and today's threat is house arrest for the over 50s.
Its running at a threat a day as the government and the SAGE politburo fight to retain the control they have had since March.