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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the bl

SystemSystem Posts: 12,185
edited April 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?

The Rallings & Thrasher national vote share projections based on local by-elections for May 2 locals. Changes on 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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Comments

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Do we know the polling base Rallings and Thrasher have used to project their local election vote shares?

    If they were using outdated polling data, they may have failed to factor in Labour's national vote share falling to 35% in the aftermath of the Blessed Margaret's passage to heaven.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    I'm struggling to see where and when the Tory leadership will be able to arrest the palpable panic from some of its members. Any elections are likely to go poorly, and the longer UKIP do pretty well the stronger they'll get and the more worried the Tories will get - increasing the chances of rebellions or defections at lower levels - and the infighting and potential pitching to the right will only make Labour's job even easier, further exacerbating the fears of the Tories.

    The only thing I can think of that would settle their nerves would be an appreciable economic recovery, but if there is one it's not likely to be large enough to help (I'd even read that apparently they've been told not to keep talking about 'grass shoots' of recovery and the like, because the public don't believe them).

    It's not irreversible, I guess, but the longer they are in a funk the worse 2015 will go for them, and the only solace they seem to find thesedays is cheering themselves up that Labour will have a crap inheritance to deal with in 2015 and so be unpopular too.

    Any ideas of reasonable UKIP predictions? My gut says anything more than 50 would be very tough, although potentially achievable if their support pools in a few areas.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    A UKIP-Tory electoral pact would outpoll Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,420
    Considering the Tories won the national vote share in 2001 in the County Council Elections despite losing the overall national vote share by almost 10% on the same day in the General Election, I would say the Tories are likely to win the national vote share in the seats up on May 2nd. R and T can only estimate how the voteshares would impact on the overall national picture though, and Labour will almost certainly win such a projection!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Socrates said:

    A UKIP-Tory electoral pact would outpoll Labour.

    UKIP VI
    Approval (OA)
    Govt: -63 (-26)
    Cameron: -31 (-16)

    How's that going to work?


  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    What a totally dumb point and shows that you know so sod all about this.

    If you could have been arsed to read the header you would have seen exactly how these numbers are computed.

    AveryLP said:

    Do we know the polling base Rallings and Thrasher have used to project their local election vote shares?

    If they were using outdated polling data, they may have failed to factor in Labour's national vote share falling to 35% in the aftermath of the Blessed Margaret's passage to heaven.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The Rallings & Thrasher national vote share projections based on local by-elections for May 2 locals. Changes on 2009 .

    Wouldn't be a hoot if these two, Rallings & Thrasher, also made a mistake on their Excel spreadsheet. LOL
  • AveryLP said:

    Do we know the polling base Rallings and Thrasher have used to project their local election vote shares?
    If they were using outdated polling data, they may have failed to factor in Labour's national vote share falling to 35% in the aftermath of the Blessed Margaret's passage to heaven.

    You raise a good point although there is more danger of them under reporting the true by election figures because UKIPs local surge seems to be more recent than a year ago.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    kle4 said:

    I'm struggling to see where and when the Tory leadership will be able to arrest the palpable panic from some of its members. Any elections are likely to go poorly, and the longer UKIP do pretty well the stronger they'll get and the more worried the Tories will get - increasing the chances of rebellions or defections at lower levels - and the infighting and potential pitching to the right will only make Labour's job even easier, further exacerbating the fears of the Tories.

    The only thing I can think of that would settle their nerves would be an appreciable economic recovery, but if there is one it's not likely to be large enough to help (I'd even read that apparently they've been told not to keep talking about 'grass shoots' of recovery and the like, because the public don't believe them).

    It's not irreversible, I guess, but the longer they are in a funk the worse 2015 will go for them, and the only solace they seem to find thesedays is cheering themselves up that Labour will have a crap inheritance to deal with in 2015 and so be unpopular too.

    Any ideas of reasonable UKIP predictions? My gut says anything more than 50 would be very tough, although potentially achievable if their support pools in a few areas.

    kle4

    antifrank, in a fine post this morning, drew our attention to reports of a new mood of optimism in the Conservative Party and contrasted this with the introspective doubts racking Labour. He quoted from The Telegraph:

    "But now, while the task before him remains mountainous, Mr Cameron has less to fear from his colleagues. The mood among Tory MPs is lifting. Some have been cheered by his willingness to go into battle on welfare, and revel in the resultant Labour disarray; others believe that the UK economy is finally about to turn the corner (though one old hand warns against “drinking the Treasury Kool-Aid”).

    Whatever the reasons Tories are finding to be cheerful, more of them are willing to give Mr Cameron the benefit of the doubt for now. That will ease the pain of what will be miserable results in next month’s local elections.


    On the economy, we are well past the stage of spotting green shoots in the snow. The leading indicators are now all stout saplings soaring upwards under the spring sun. The contrast of the UK's performance to that of its EU competitors is so threatening to Washington that Obama has sent out his henchmen to the IMF to engender fear and disillusion, lest we become a model of success cited by his Republican opponents.

    Some hapless Sky journalist was cornered last week by a couple of fifth columnists and, under duress, started to broadcast all kinds of Krugmanite disinformation on the UK economy and its Chancellor.

    I think the British people are immune to such viral attack. Innoculated against captitulation in 1940, we all realise that the current state of the economy is not the end. We know it is not even the beginning of the end: but accept that it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. Every Briton now expects America to fall in line behind austerity economics in a year or so.

    George has been more than vindicated. He has become the new bond between the English-speaking peoples and a new hope for the whole world.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2013
    If the Rallings and Thrasher figs are accurate indicators of May 2nd the Lib Dems are suffering a greater % loss than the Conservatives and may gain few from the Conservatives from all their 2nd places. Although my gut feeling says that is not the case and UKIP will "help" a lot of Lib Dems win.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    "The big question is the Ukip total."

    Wasn't there a figure of +40 going around off the back of these Rallings and Thrasher projections?

    That would also seem to tally with the odds Shadsy was giving for under 50.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "The Conservative Party has begun action to suspend a councillor over "totally unacceptable" comments about immigrant children.

    Councillor John Cherry claimed Pakistani children would fail to "rise to the top" and some nationalities were "uncertain" what hard work is about.

    The Chichester councillor was responding to proposals by a south London academy to open an Eton-style boarding school in West Sussex.

    A Tory source said: "Proceedings to suspend him have begun".

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-21/tories-act-after-councillors-unacceptable-remarks/

    I should hope so too.....
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @AveryLP:
    "George has been more than vindicated. He has become the new bond between the English-speaking peoples and a new hope for the whole world."

    Well I never! Soaring rhetoric from AveryLP. LOL

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Brogan nudges the Ed story into the coming week:

    "Ed Miliband's problem is that, suddenly, Labour is the story – and it hurts"

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100213037/ed-milibands-problem-is-that-suddenly-labour-is-the-story-and-it-hurts/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Avery shouldn't look at this while drinking coffee

    http://www.southshieldslabour.org.uk/emma_s_family_album
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @AveryLP I'm shocked at the way that you ascribed opinions to me that I was only reporting. But I'm still more shocked that after a thread on MMR vaccinations, you misspelt "inoculated".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,420
    another step on the road to a likely eventual change in the Australian law, Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, now says the policy on the same-sex marriage will be decided by the party room after the election.

    By Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

    Tony Abbott has made an important shift in the Liberal position on gay marriage.

    In another step on the road to a likely eventual change in the Australian law, Abbott now says the policy on the issue will be decided by the party room after the election.

    Up until this week the policy has been against gay marriage, with Liberal MPs denied a free vote. The move by Abbott opens the prospect of the party room allowing a conscience vote.

    Abbott signalled the shift at a community forum in his electorate on Monday night, before the New Zealand vote this week to legalise gay marriage. After that vote NSW Premier Barry O'Farrell called for a conscience vote federally across all parties.

    Mr Abbott today reaffirmed his own view that “the orthodox definition of marriage as between a man and a woman should continue.”

    But he said: “our position, my position, going into the next election is that what our policy is on this will be a matter for the post election party room.

    “I’m not trying to say that the party is committed forever and a day to the current position.”

    One reason Abbott has consistently given for denying a conscience vote to his MPs during this parliament is that the opposition went into the last election with a policy opposing gay marriage. The Labor party allowed its MPs a concuss vote on private member’s legislation before the parliament last year, but the bid to change the law failed.

    Manager of Opposition business Christopher Pyne reflected the change of Liberal position, saying on the Nine Network’s Today show: “In the next parliament we haven’t got a clear policy on a conscience vote.

    “The party room will get to decide that, we might well end up with some recognition of same-sex couples.”

    Liberal frontbencher Malcolm Turnbull has been a strong advocate of allowing Liberals a conscience vote, making it clear he would support a change in the law. He was not able to buck the party line last year because that would have cost him his frontbench position.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    @Socrates

    Given that they hate the Tories, and Cameron in particular, you may as well speculate on a Tory-Don't Know alliance, or a Tory-Can't be arsed alliance.

    But the incompetent fop loves Nigel and the Kippers. In Cammie's chumocracy "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" are jokey terms of endearment. It wasn't a slight on UKIP at all. ;)

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I agree with that. A strong Ukip performance in CON-LD battles is good news for the yellows.

    The CCHQ local elections specialist, Rob Hayward, beieves that the LDs will be net winners on May 2.

    If the Rallings and Thrasher figs are accurate indicators of May 2nd the Lib Dems are suffering a greater % loss than the Conservatives and may gain few from the Conservatives from all their 2nd places. Although my gut feeling says that is not the case and UKIP will "help" a lot of Lib Dems win.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    "The Conservative Party has begun action to suspend a councillor over "totally unacceptable" comments about immigrant children.

    Councillor John Cherry claimed Pakistani children would fail to "rise to the top" and some nationalities were "uncertain" what hard work is about.

    The Chichester councillor was responding to proposals by a south London academy to open an Eton-style boarding school in West Sussex.

    A Tory source said: "Proceedings to suspend him have begun".

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-21/tories-act-after-councillors-unacceptable-remarks/

    I should hope so too.....

    Do we have a full context including the questions asked? I hesitate to judge anyone on partial quotes.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited April 2013
    Luiz Suarez needs to eat before, not during matches.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Avery shouldn't look at this while drinking coffee

    http://www.southshieldslabour.org.uk/emma_s_family_album

    I like the dog, Andrea!
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2013

    (to Avery) What a totally dumb point and shows that you know so sod all about this.
    If you could have been arsed to read the header you would have seen exactly how these numbers are computed.

    So what period in time do the by elections cover? Past 3 months?, 6 months? 12 months? What weighting does that mean as we may have had more by elections in periods further away from recent months under the "6 month practice".
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    I agree with that. A strong Ukip performance in CON-LD battles is good news for the yellows.

    That would seem to be predicated on the kipper vote being just a bit more than 'a plague on all your houses' protest vote and hitting the Cons the hardest. Which looks to be the case.

    The exact numbers will prove interesting on just how much harder it's going to hit the Cons than the other parties.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited April 2013
    On topic: As TCPoliticalBetting points out, the figures are tricky to interpret because, if these projections turn out to be roughly correct, it will be the LibDems who will have lost most vote share since 2009, when they scored a thumping 25% national vote share equivalent, beating Labour's miserable 22% (at least the Tories are projected to be nowhere near that humiliating figure!).

    I don't know whether Rallings and Thasher split the UKIP share out from the 'Others' vote share in 2009. However, it is worth noting that the national equivalent for Others (including UKIP) in 2009 was 18%, much the same as the 17% they are projecting for this coming May. It may well be that what matters is not so much the total shifts, but the geographical distribution of those shifts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Socrates said:

    "The Conservative Party has begun action to suspend a councillor over "totally unacceptable" comments about immigrant children.

    Councillor John Cherry claimed Pakistani children would fail to "rise to the top" and some nationalities were "uncertain" what hard work is about.

    The Chichester councillor was responding to proposals by a south London academy to open an Eton-style boarding school in West Sussex.

    A Tory source said: "Proceedings to suspend him have begun".

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-21/tories-act-after-councillors-unacceptable-remarks/

    I should hope so too.....

    Do we have a full context including the questions asked? I hesitate to judge anyone on partial quotes.
    "John Cherry, 73, told The Mail on Sunday: ‘Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian. It depends what type of Asian. If they’re Chinese they’ll rise to the top. If they’re Indian they’ll rise to the top. If they’re Pakistani they won’t.
    ‘There are certain nationalities where hard work is highly valued. There are certain nationalities where they are uncertain what this hard work is all about.
    ‘If the children are not allowed out of the site then it will make them want to escape into the forest – it will be a sexual volcano.
    ‘Has anyone asked whether these children want to be plucked from their natural surroundings? They have never done boarding before, so they won’t know how it works."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2312267/Race-row-Tory-town-tells-Gove-super-head-We-dont-want-inner-city-pupils-here.html#ixzz2R7SANk9L
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    antifrank said:

    @AveryLP I'm shocked at the way that you ascribed opinions to me that I was only reporting. But I'm still more shocked that after a thread on MMR vaccinations, you misspelt "inoculated".

    My dear antifrank, I would never ascribe an opinion to a solicitor. I would be far too worried about counsel's fees.

    I am tempted to excuse my misspelling as a deliberate mistake designed to assure readers of PB that the entire paragraph in which it was located was original material flowing straight from my heart and pen.

    But I confess, it was mere ignorance.



  • "John Cherry, 73, told The Mail on Sunday: ‘Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian. It depends what type of Asian. If they’re Chinese they’ll rise to the top. If they’re Indian they’ll rise to the top. If they’re Pakistani they won’t.

    He should become Phil Woolas's agent.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Luiz Suarez needs to eat before, not during matches.

    From Twitter - Suarez has gone dental ;^ )
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    And to think some tories were hoping it would be Kipper councillors making stupid and idiotic remarks. ;)

    They still might of course but this hardly bodes well for Cammie taking the high ground on that and using Crosby to launch attacks on the Kippers if they do have some colourful characters voted in as councillors.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    I wonder what Farge will have to say about this latest Toxic Tory.

    Gotta love a bit of Fruitcake on Fruitcake aggression, but who's the winner?

    The PB Burleys obviously. ;^ )

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    I have posted before the actual vote shares in the local elections in 2009 ( and 2008 for the 2 Unitaries which last voted in that year ) . The actual vote shares of Con 44% , Lab 14% LD 24% are substantially different to the notional figures leaving a lot of room for error in calculating swings based on the latter . My best guess is that actual vote shares this year will be around Con 32 Lab 26 LD 17 UKIP 17 Others 10 giving a average swing from Con to LD of around 2% but substantial variation from seat to seat .
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The CC with no boundary changes are
    Devon
    Dorset
    East Sussex
    Hampshire
    Hertfordshire
    Kent
    Lancashire
    Lincolnshire
    Nottinghamshire
    Suffolk
    Warwickshire
    West Sussex
    Worcestershire

    Minor boundary changes in
    Cambridgeshire
    Essex
    Leicestershire
    Norfolk
    North Yorkshire


    Full boundary changes in
    Buckinghamshire
    Cumbria
    Derbyshire
    Gloucestershire
    Northamptonshire
    Oxfordshire
    Somerset
    Staffordshire
    Surrey

    In the Unitary voting

    boundary changes in Durham, Northumberland and Cornwall. Minor changes in Shropshire.
    Wiltshire, Isle of Wight and Bristol unchanged (Bristol is up by third).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AveryLP said:

    Avery shouldn't look at this while drinking coffee

    http://www.southshieldslabour.org.uk/emma_s_family_album

    I like the dog, Andrea!
    This is an election for local people. Nothing for you here.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    On topic: As TCPoliticalBetting points out, the figures are tricky to interpret because, if these projections turn out to be roughly correct, it will be the LibDems who will have lost most vote share since 2009, when they scored a thumping 25% national vote share equivalent, beating Labour's miserable 22% (at least the Tories are projected to be nowhere near that humiliating figure!).

    I don't know whether Rallings and Thasher split the UKIP share out from the 'Others' vote share in 2009. However, it is worth noting that the national equivalent for Others (including UKIP) in 2009 was 18%, much the same as the 17% they are projecting for this coming May. It may well be that what matters is not so much the total shifts, but the geographical distribution of those shifts.

    Thank you, Richard.

    It was what I was trying to say in my earlier post on the Rawlings and Thrasher methodology, but you have expressed it so much better.

    I sometimes feel I am greatly misunderstood on this board.

    I'm really just here to listen and learn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    If these figures prove to be correct, and that is a big if, then another generation of Lib Dem councillors are marching to defeat. For them being members of a Coalition government is a bit like the French version of Verdun.

    As with the French one begins to wonder how much of this they can take. Losing the popular vote share to UKIP would raise some interesting questions of who is appearing in the next set of leadership debates as such a result is only likely to be confirmed in the Euros.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :^ )

    RT @damongreenITV: I'm going to cheer myself up with some Lib Dem leaflets. I bloody love bar charts. And pictures of men with beards pointing at things
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    I've not been on PB since Wednesday morning so can someone explain why in the early hours of Thursday morning Moses was calling me a liar, shouting Ludgate Hill specsavers at me and claiming that Labour were now certain to lose in 2015?

    It feels like I've been accosted by a dangerous nutter.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,416
    The numbers in 2009 were Con 44%, Lib Dem 25%, Lab 13%, Green 6%, UKIP 5%, BNP 3%, Others 4%. Because the County Councils exclude a lot of Labour-voting urban areas, R & T gave a projected national equivalent vote share of Con 38%, Lib Dem 25%, Lab 23%.

    The Conservatives did incredibly well, in terms of seats, in 2009, winning 70% of seats, on 44% of the vote. The non-Conservative vote split enabled them to pick up lots of seats on quite low vote shares. 44% was only 5% better than the party achieved in 2001.

    The Conservatives will be sure to come top, in terms of actual votes, seats, and County Councils in 1997 (they managed this even in 2001). I'd expect actual vote shares of c. Con 35%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 10%, Others 12%. I can't see how the Lib Dems could gain seats overall, though they may do in individual councils.
  • Suarez surely has played his last game for Liverpool. On the other hand, Liverpool have a habit of pandering to him. If I knew how it worked, it might be worth laying against him leaving.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    tim said:

    @DavidL

    But a UKIP surge ameliorates some of the electoral damage involved in going into a coalition with the Toxic Tories.

    Only if their vote does not fall by more which is what these figures are suggesting. In the race to the bottom the Lib Dems have their noses in front. Also the tory figures are edging higher at the moment. There is a long way to go the elections and this may be a Maggie blip but if the tories pick up there will be carnage.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    "The Conservative Party has begun action to suspend a councillor over "totally unacceptable" comments about immigrant children.

    Councillor John Cherry claimed Pakistani children would fail to "rise to the top" and some nationalities were "uncertain" what hard work is about.

    The Chichester councillor was responding to proposals by a south London academy to open an Eton-style boarding school in West Sussex.

    A Tory source said: "Proceedings to suspend him have begun".

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-21/tories-act-after-councillors-unacceptable-remarks/

    I should hope so too.....

    Do we have a full context including the questions asked? I hesitate to judge anyone on partial quotes.
    "John Cherry, 73, told The Mail on Sunday: ‘Ninety-seven per cent of pupils will be black or Asian. It depends what type of Asian. If they’re Chinese they’ll rise to the top. If they’re Indian they’ll rise to the top. If they’re Pakistani they won’t.
    ‘There are certain nationalities where hard work is highly valued. There are certain nationalities where they are uncertain what this hard work is all about.
    ‘If the children are not allowed out of the site then it will make them want to escape into the forest – it will be a sexual volcano.
    ‘Has anyone asked whether these children want to be plucked from their natural surroundings? They have never done boarding before, so they won’t know how it works."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2312267/Race-row-Tory-town-tells-Gove-super-head-We-dont-want-inner-city-pupils-here.html#ixzz2R7SANk9L
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    The context makes the remarks sound even worse. Condemn away!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    I've not been on PB since Wednesday morning so can someone explain why in the early hours of Thursday morning Moses was calling me a liar, shouting Ludgate Hill specsavers at me and claiming that Labour were now certain to lose in 2015?

    It feels like I've been accosted by a dangerous nutter.

    I think it was a case of mistaken identity, ar.

    A post later in the same thread exonerated you.

    Another PBer saw you lunching in Notting Hill and provided your alibi.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    Oh gods, more bad news

    "The government says it will resist attempts to allow US-style political advertising on British TV ahead of an important legal judgement on the issue.

    European judges are to rule on a legal challenge claiming a blanket ban on the adverts breaches right to free speech."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22238582

    What bet the government will lose this one, especially since the headline says they will resist the attempts, and yet the ruling is on Monday, so any resistance that would be helpful must have already happened.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    Suarez surely has played his last game for Liverpool. On the other hand, Liverpool have a habit of pandering to him. If I knew how it worked, it might be worth laying against him leaving.

    With even our good players not having great seasons, it's unsurprising the team have pandered to him so much - it really is a shame he gets into so much trouble, as he has been very good, but eventually there's a line to be reached.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    kle4 said:

    Suarez surely has played his last game for Liverpool. On the other hand, Liverpool have a habit of pandering to him. If I knew how it worked, it might be worth laying against him leaving.

    With even our good players not having great seasons, it's unsurprising the team have pandered to him so much - it really is a shame he gets into so much trouble, as he has been very good, but eventually there's a line to be reached.

    Let's face it, your best player in the last couple of months has already announced his retirement at the end of the season.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    AveryLP said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm struggling to see where and when the Tory leadership will be able to arrest the palpable panic from some of its members. Any elections are likely to go poorly, and the longer UKIP do pretty well the stronger they'll get and the more worried the Tories will get - increasing the chances of rebellions or defections at lower levels - and the infighting and potential pitching to the right will only make Labour's job even easier, further exacerbating the fears of the Tories.

    The only thing I can think of that would settle their nerves would be an appreciable economic recovery, but if there is one it's not likely to be large enough to help (I'd even read that apparently they've been told not to keep talking about 'grass shoots' of recovery and the like, because the public don't believe them).

    It's not irreversible, I guess, but the longer they are in a funk the worse 2015 will go for them, and the only solace they seem to find thesedays is cheering themselves up that Labour will have a crap inheritance to deal with in 2015 and so be unpopular too.

    Any ideas of reasonable UKIP predictions? My gut says anything more than 50 would be very tough, although potentially achievable if their support pools in a few areas.

    George has been more than vindicated. He has become the new bond between the English-speaking peoples and a new hope for the whole world.
    I've been taking a bit of a break from politics recently - I must have missed that!

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    It will certainly be an interesting set of results.

    If the Libs do make gains of the Tories it would be dynamite.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Suarez surely has played his last game for Liverpool. On the other hand, Liverpool have a habit of pandering to him. If I knew how it worked, it might be worth laying against him leaving.

    With even our good players not having great seasons, it's unsurprising the team have pandered to him so much - it really is a shame he gets into so much trouble, as he has been very good, but eventually there's a line to be reached.

    Let's face it, your best player in the last couple of months has already announced his retirement at the end of the season.

    Fortunately the sharp decline into mid table quality over the past few years has prepared me for just about anything when it comes to Liverpool FC.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Stevie G obviously fancied a curry sauce with his:

    "You have two good teams, there is a lot at stake. These games will get spicy."
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    AveryLP said:

    I've not been on PB since Wednesday morning so can someone explain why in the early hours of Thursday morning Moses was calling me a liar, shouting Ludgate Hill specsavers at me and claiming that Labour were now certain to lose in 2015?

    It feels like I've been accosted by a dangerous nutter.

    I think it was a case of mistaken identity, ar.

    A post later in the same thread exonerated you.

    Another PBer saw you lunching in Notting Hill and provided your alibi.
    Next time I'm in London I'll have to go for lunch in Notting Hill, I dare say it would be expensive but even the Chandos charges £2.80 for a pint now so nowhere's cheap in London.

    Incidentally Avery did you notice in the employment statistics that manufacturing earnings are now almost as high as those in finance.

    Taking into account the locations of manufacturing and finance work that means that manufacturing employment is relatively much better paid.

    Perhaps you, Charles and RN should be encouraging young City workers to instead head north and get an engineering apprenticeship ;-)

    Apart from that the employment stats do suggest this country is increasingly becoming a low skill, low pay, low productivity economy.

    The decline in homeownership with the associated reduction in economic and social mobility also indicates this trend.

    The 21st century could be as grim for this country as the 20th was good.

    And with that grim prophecy I have to go for likely another few days.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sean_F said:

    The numbers in 2009 were Con 44%, Lib Dem 25%, Lab 13%, Green 6%, UKIP 5%, BNP 3%, Others 4%. Because the County Councils exclude a lot of Labour-voting urban areas, R & T gave a projected national equivalent vote share of Con 38%, Lib Dem 25%, Lab 23%.

    The Conservatives did incredibly well, in terms of seats, in 2009, winning 70% of seats, on 44% of the vote. The non-Conservative vote split enabled them to pick up lots of seats on quite low vote shares. 44% was only 5% better than the party achieved in 2001.

    The Conservatives will be sure to come top, in terms of actual votes, seats, and County Councils in 1997 (they managed this even in 2001). I'd expect actual vote shares of c. Con 35%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 10%, Others 12%. I can't see how the Lib Dems could gain seats overall, though they may do in individual councils.

    Your figures for 2009 are almost the same as mine though I took off the Beds Unitaries which polled in 2009 but not this year and added Durham and Northumberland . I think your Conservative % forecast is a little optimistic and UKIP forecast too low but we shall see on May 3rd .

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,793
    edited April 2013
    2009 had a few factors not applicable this time around.

    The expenses farrago, Gordon Brown, and that youtube video, and 2009, was the first time in sixteen years, in which these elections weren't held on the same day as a general election, something which happened in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and which probably depressed the Labour/non Tory turnout in 2009.




  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,793
    edited April 2013
    Hmm, Ed meeting George Galloway.

    I wonder if he's going to say to Ed "I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability"

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/21/ed-miliband-unwise-met-george-galloway?mobile-redirect=false
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,416
    Mark, UKIP is the real wild card at the moment.

    I'm starting to wonder if UKIP/Conservative is like DUP/UUP in the late 70's. UKIP seem to have the same kind of working class/lower middle class base of supporters, who feel betrayed by the elite.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    I've not been on PB since Wednesday morning so can someone explain why in the early hours of Thursday morning Moses was calling me a liar, shouting Ludgate Hill specsavers at me and claiming that Labour were now certain to lose in 2015?

    It feels like I've been accosted by a dangerous nutter.

    I think it was a case of mistaken identity, ar.

    A post later in the same thread exonerated you.

    Another PBer saw you lunching in Notting Hill and provided your alibi.
    Next time I'm in London I'll have to go for lunch in Notting Hill, I dare say it would be expensive but even the Chandos charges £2.80 for a pint now so nowhere's cheap in London.

    Incidentally Avery did you notice in the employment statistics that manufacturing earnings are now almost as high as those in finance.

    Taking into account the locations of manufacturing and finance work that means that manufacturing employment is relatively much better paid.

    Perhaps you, Charles and RN should be encouraging young City workers to instead head north and get an engineering apprenticeship ;-)

    Apart from that the employment stats do suggest this country is increasingly becoming a low skill, low pay, low productivity economy.

    The decline in homeownership with the associated reduction in economic and social mobility also indicates this trend.

    The 21st century could be as grim for this country as the 20th was good.

    And with that grim prophecy I have to go for likely another few days.
    I haven't got that deep into the ONS Labour stats yet but I am not surprised. The financial sector employs vast numbers in branch networks and computer centres located throughout the UK, very few of whom are high earners. This must distort an averaged figure for finncial services sector workers.

    The City of course is not underpaid but numbers employed have dropped by hundreds of thousands since the pre-crisis peaks.

    You also need to note that I am the son of a Northern engineer, ar. One admittedly who didn't do much engineering in his life but he did write on the topic!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,793
    edited April 2013
    I remember a few years ago, staying in a hotel, and ordering the broadband and movies combo package.

    Whilst browsing the A to Z listings of the movies, one of them was a "niche" movie, called "Cocksure Captain" about a footballer called John Cherry (sic) who shags his team mates wives and girlfriends.

    Just saying be careful if you want to google "John Cherry"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    I remember a few years ago, staying in a hotel, and ordering the broadband and movies combo package.

    Whilst browsing the A to Z listings of the movies, one of them was a "niche" movie, called "Cocksure Captain" about a football called John Cherry (sic) who shags his team mates wives and girlfriends.

    Just saying be careful if you want to google "John Cherry"

    So it was a blue movie then?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    Nice gesture: George Osborne sponsors Ed Balls for the marathon: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22241808

    Well done to Ed for finishing. With all due respect I did not think he had the figure for it.
  • DavidL said:

    I remember a few years ago, staying in a hotel, and ordering the broadband and movies combo package.

    Whilst browsing the A to Z listings of the movies, one of them was a "niche" movie, called "Cocksure Captain" about a football called John Cherry (sic) who shags his team mates wives and girlfriends.

    Just saying be careful if you want to google "John Cherry"

    So it was a blue movie then?

    I think so, I ended up watching Drive instead.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,416
    TSE, an art-house movie, surely?
  • Sean_F said:

    TSE, an art-house movie, surely?

    Possibly, I only read the brief description on the listings.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @AndrewBloch: Mike Tyson is now following Luis Suarez on Twitter. You couldn't make it up http://twitter.com/AndrewBloch/status/326043967990947840/photo/1
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Great to see both TimT and Richard Tyndall back posting today. Now if only Nuala and Colin W's mum could be coaxed out of retirement...
  • Neil said:

    Great to see both TimT and Richard Tyndall back posting today. Now if only Nuala and Colin W's mum could be coaxed out of retirement...

    Perhaps we could persuade Mike to run a "Should you be backing Sir Malcolm Rifkind in the next Tory Leader Market?"
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Well, its a view!

    RT @RAWK_Meltdown: I'd rather have Suarez bite me, than have Giggs shag my missus, or Rooney shag me nan.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    2 Conservative selections in recent days:

    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland: Will Goodhand
    Walsall North: Douglas Hansen-Luke

    a total of 41 Tory selections in not held or vacant seats if I can count correctly
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TSE

    If that didnt flush Nuala out then I'd be worried for her!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,793
    edited April 2013
    Neil said:

    @TSE

    If that didnt flush Nuala out then I'd be worried for her!

    Well I'm guest editing for a fortnight next month, I'll try and run it.

    You'll be all upset to know, that my stint as guest editor DOES NOT coincide with the Eurovision song contest, unlike last year.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013

    2 Conservative selections in recent days:

    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland: Will Goodhand
    Walsall North: Douglas Hansen-Luke

    a total of 41 Tory selections in not held or vacant seats if I can count correctly

    Thanks for this information Andrea.

    The Tories have now selected candidates in 18 of their top 20 target seats. Great Grimsby and Birmingham Edgbaston are the two where they haven't yet selected:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc#gid=0
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Plato said:

    Well, its a view!

    RT @RAWK_Meltdown: I'd rather have Suarez bite me, than have Giggs shag my missus, or Rooney shag me nan.

    Until about 5:30 pm this evening I had a suspicion that Suarez was a vegetarian !
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Over the past six months the LDs have taken 12 seats off the Tories in by-elections and have lost none to the blues.
    IOS said:

    It will certainly be an interesting set of results.

    If the Libs do make gains of the Tories it would be dynamite.

  • Over the past six months the LDs have taken 12 seats off the Tories in by-elections and have lost none to the blues.

    IOS said:

    It will certainly be an interesting set of results.

    If the Libs do make gains of the Tories it would be dynamite.

    First past the post and UKIP end up helping the Lib Dems?

    I'm going to need a new irony meter, but it will be a pointer for the 2015 General Election.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:

    It will certainly be an interesting set of results.

    We await the news from Cornwall with baited breath, IOS.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The Middlesbrough South Tory candidate took part in Beauty and the Geek.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    If the Libs take seats of the Tories in cornwall I think I will have proved my point.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    TSE

    It would be amazingly ironic if it were indeed FPTP that saved the Lib Dems.


    The Tories really should have supported AV.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Essex should be interesting too. UKIP are mainly battling The L/Dems there.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:


    If the Libs take seats of the Tories in cornwall I think I will have proved my point.

    Er, no, IOS, not really.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    My point was that the Tories were doing bugger all. Which would have been less than us.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @IOS

    Unfortunately Labour's harder working activists in Cornwall didnt manage to get enough signatures to nominate anywhere near as many candidates as the Tories. Ah well.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    The Middlesbrough South Tory candidate took part in Beauty and the Geek.

    As which one?
  • Anyone else getting this advert on PB, or is it just me?

    http://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/326059872577789952/photo/1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,416
    The starting point for these results is not May 2010, or May 2011, but June 2009, which ( in local electoral terms) was a good year for the Lib Dems. Thus, the Lib Dem vote share will fall - but possibly by less than the Conseratives'.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Does PB work in chrome?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    welshowl said:

    The Middlesbrough South Tory candidate took part in Beauty and the Geek.

    As which one?
    It depends on your tastes
    http://www.listal.com/will-goodhand
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    The Middlesbrough South Tory candidate took part in Beauty and the Geek.

    As which one?
    It depends on your tastes
    http://www.listal.com/will-goodhand
    Point taken.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    It depends on your tastes

    You're very kind, Andrea.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    IOS said:

    Does PB work in chrome?

    Yes.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Neil said:

    @IOS

    Unfortunately Labour's harder working activists in Cornwall didnt manage to get enough signatures to nominate anywhere near as many candidates as the Tories. Ah well.

    Never mind that. Have a look at the results on May 3rd. I don't mean councillors but votes. There will be a serious increase in Devon and Cornwall.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Truro is possibly the LDs' best hope of a gain at the next election. They held it continuously from 1974 to 2010 and probably only lost because of a combination of two factors: the sitting MP retiring and boundary changes.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour is running too many selections at the moment....they are starting to become too many even for me to try and collect info....every day a new candidate pops up somewhere.

    Hopefuls are lined up or lining up for Bristol South, Lewisham Deptford, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Enfield North, Hendon, Hornsey, Brent Central, Calder Valley, Weaver Valley,Bury North, Manchester Withington, Hove, Brighton Kemptwon, Pudsey, Elmet, Arfon, South Basildon, Falkirk, etch

    in some of them they are already at shortlisting stage, in others finishing the nomination process, in some the timetable has not even published yet.

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    O/T My wife is not pleased to find that some of the congregation at MT's funeral are selling their copies of the Order of Service on eBay. Still, she said, not all of those invited were respectable and upstanding people - some of them were journalists :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Over the past six months the LDs have taken 12 seats off the Tories in by-elections and have lost none to the blues.

    IOS said:

    It will certainly be an interesting set of results.

    If the Libs do make gains of the Tories it would be dynamite.

    First past the post and UKIP end up helping the Lib Dems?

    I'm going to need a new irony meter, but it will be a pointer for the 2015 General Election.
    The supreme irony will actually be that the Tories spent money and effort to keep FPTP. I am sure some of us will be forgiven if we have a little laugh on May 3rd.

    Why was FPTP not good enough for the Police Commisioners ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,252

    Over the past six months the LDs have taken 12 seats off the Tories in by-elections and have lost none to the blues.

    IOS said:

    It will certainly be an interesting set of results.

    If the Libs do make gains of the Tories it would be dynamite.

    First past the post and UKIP end up helping the Lib Dems?

    I'm going to need a new irony meter, but it will be a pointer for the 2015 General Election.
    Remember, ONLY the Lib Dems can finish third under FPTP.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is Andrew Rawnsley covering the elections on May 2nd in the Manchester area ?
  • surbiton said:

    Is Andrew Rawnsley covering the elections on May 2nd in the Manchester area ?

    Are there any elections in Manchester?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013

    surbiton said:

    Is Andrew Rawnsley covering the elections on May 2nd in the Manchester area ?

    Are there any elections in Manchester?
    no, but Rawnsley informed us that UKIP is fielding many candidates there.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    I know.

    The whole article is all over the place. It's amazing how bad political journalism is in this country. The only thing they seem able to do is write process stories.
This discussion has been closed.