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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?
The Rallings & Thrasher national vote share projections based on local by-elections for May 2 locals. Changes on 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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If they were using outdated polling data, they may have failed to factor in Labour's national vote share falling to 35% in the aftermath of the Blessed Margaret's passage to heaven.
The only thing I can think of that would settle their nerves would be an appreciable economic recovery, but if there is one it's not likely to be large enough to help (I'd even read that apparently they've been told not to keep talking about 'grass shoots' of recovery and the like, because the public don't believe them).
It's not irreversible, I guess, but the longer they are in a funk the worse 2015 will go for them, and the only solace they seem to find thesedays is cheering themselves up that Labour will have a crap inheritance to deal with in 2015 and so be unpopular too.
Any ideas of reasonable UKIP predictions? My gut says anything more than 50 would be very tough, although potentially achievable if their support pools in a few areas.
Approval (OA)
Govt: -63 (-26)
Cameron: -31 (-16)
How's that going to work?
If you could have been arsed to read the header you would have seen exactly how these numbers are computed.
Wouldn't be a hoot if these two, Rallings & Thrasher, also made a mistake on their Excel spreadsheet. LOL
antifrank, in a fine post this morning, drew our attention to reports of a new mood of optimism in the Conservative Party and contrasted this with the introspective doubts racking Labour. He quoted from The Telegraph:
"But now, while the task before him remains mountainous, Mr Cameron has less to fear from his colleagues. The mood among Tory MPs is lifting. Some have been cheered by his willingness to go into battle on welfare, and revel in the resultant Labour disarray; others believe that the UK economy is finally about to turn the corner (though one old hand warns against “drinking the Treasury Kool-Aid”).
Whatever the reasons Tories are finding to be cheerful, more of them are willing to give Mr Cameron the benefit of the doubt for now. That will ease the pain of what will be miserable results in next month’s local elections.
On the economy, we are well past the stage of spotting green shoots in the snow. The leading indicators are now all stout saplings soaring upwards under the spring sun. The contrast of the UK's performance to that of its EU competitors is so threatening to Washington that Obama has sent out his henchmen to the IMF to engender fear and disillusion, lest we become a model of success cited by his Republican opponents.
Some hapless Sky journalist was cornered last week by a couple of fifth columnists and, under duress, started to broadcast all kinds of Krugmanite disinformation on the UK economy and its Chancellor.
I think the British people are immune to such viral attack. Innoculated against captitulation in 1940, we all realise that the current state of the economy is not the end. We know it is not even the beginning of the end: but accept that it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. Every Briton now expects America to fall in line behind austerity economics in a year or so.
George has been more than vindicated. He has become the new bond between the English-speaking peoples and a new hope for the whole world.
Wasn't there a figure of +40 going around off the back of these Rallings and Thrasher projections?
That would also seem to tally with the odds Shadsy was giving for under 50.
Councillor John Cherry claimed Pakistani children would fail to "rise to the top" and some nationalities were "uncertain" what hard work is about.
The Chichester councillor was responding to proposals by a south London academy to open an Eton-style boarding school in West Sussex.
A Tory source said: "Proceedings to suspend him have begun".
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-21/tories-act-after-councillors-unacceptable-remarks/
I should hope so too.....
"George has been more than vindicated. He has become the new bond between the English-speaking peoples and a new hope for the whole world."
Well I never! Soaring rhetoric from AveryLP. LOL
"Ed Miliband's problem is that, suddenly, Labour is the story – and it hurts"
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100213037/ed-milibands-problem-is-that-suddenly-labour-is-the-story-and-it-hurts/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.southshieldslabour.org.uk/emma_s_family_album
By Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
Tony Abbott has made an important shift in the Liberal position on gay marriage.
In another step on the road to a likely eventual change in the Australian law, Abbott now says the policy on the issue will be decided by the party room after the election.
Up until this week the policy has been against gay marriage, with Liberal MPs denied a free vote. The move by Abbott opens the prospect of the party room allowing a conscience vote.
Abbott signalled the shift at a community forum in his electorate on Monday night, before the New Zealand vote this week to legalise gay marriage. After that vote NSW Premier Barry O'Farrell called for a conscience vote federally across all parties.
Mr Abbott today reaffirmed his own view that “the orthodox definition of marriage as between a man and a woman should continue.”
But he said: “our position, my position, going into the next election is that what our policy is on this will be a matter for the post election party room.
“I’m not trying to say that the party is committed forever and a day to the current position.”
One reason Abbott has consistently given for denying a conscience vote to his MPs during this parliament is that the opposition went into the last election with a policy opposing gay marriage. The Labor party allowed its MPs a concuss vote on private member’s legislation before the parliament last year, but the bid to change the law failed.
Manager of Opposition business Christopher Pyne reflected the change of Liberal position, saying on the Nine Network’s Today show: “In the next parliament we haven’t got a clear policy on a conscience vote.
“The party room will get to decide that, we might well end up with some recognition of same-sex couples.”
Liberal frontbencher Malcolm Turnbull has been a strong advocate of allowing Liberals a conscience vote, making it clear he would support a change in the law. He was not able to buck the party line last year because that would have cost him his frontbench position.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100213037/ed-milibands-problem-is-that-suddenly-labour-is-the-story-and-it-hurts/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The CCHQ local elections specialist, Rob Hayward, beieves that the LDs will be net winners on May 2.
The exact numbers will prove interesting on just how much harder it's going to hit the Cons than the other parties.
I don't know whether Rallings and Thasher split the UKIP share out from the 'Others' vote share in 2009. However, it is worth noting that the national equivalent for Others (including UKIP) in 2009 was 18%, much the same as the 17% they are projecting for this coming May. It may well be that what matters is not so much the total shifts, but the geographical distribution of those shifts.
‘There are certain nationalities where hard work is highly valued. There are certain nationalities where they are uncertain what this hard work is all about.
‘If the children are not allowed out of the site then it will make them want to escape into the forest – it will be a sexual volcano.
‘Has anyone asked whether these children want to be plucked from their natural surroundings? They have never done boarding before, so they won’t know how it works."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2312267/Race-row-Tory-town-tells-Gove-super-head-We-dont-want-inner-city-pupils-here.html#ixzz2R7SANk9L
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
I am tempted to excuse my misspelling as a deliberate mistake designed to assure readers of PB that the entire paragraph in which it was located was original material flowing straight from my heart and pen.
But I confess, it was mere ignorance.
They still might of course but this hardly bodes well for Cammie taking the high ground on that and using Crosby to launch attacks on the Kippers if they do have some colourful characters voted in as councillors.
Devon
Dorset
East Sussex
Hampshire
Hertfordshire
Kent
Lancashire
Lincolnshire
Nottinghamshire
Suffolk
Warwickshire
West Sussex
Worcestershire
Minor boundary changes in
Cambridgeshire
Essex
Leicestershire
Norfolk
North Yorkshire
Full boundary changes in
Buckinghamshire
Cumbria
Derbyshire
Gloucestershire
Northamptonshire
Oxfordshire
Somerset
Staffordshire
Surrey
In the Unitary voting
boundary changes in Durham, Northumberland and Cornwall. Minor changes in Shropshire.
Wiltshire, Isle of Wight and Bristol unchanged (Bristol is up by third).
It was what I was trying to say in my earlier post on the Rawlings and Thrasher methodology, but you have expressed it so much better.
I sometimes feel I am greatly misunderstood on this board.
I'm really just here to listen and learn.
As with the French one begins to wonder how much of this they can take. Losing the popular vote share to UKIP would raise some interesting questions of who is appearing in the next set of leadership debates as such a result is only likely to be confirmed in the Euros.
RT @damongreenITV: I'm going to cheer myself up with some Lib Dem leaflets. I bloody love bar charts. And pictures of men with beards pointing at things
It feels like I've been accosted by a dangerous nutter.
The Conservatives did incredibly well, in terms of seats, in 2009, winning 70% of seats, on 44% of the vote. The non-Conservative vote split enabled them to pick up lots of seats on quite low vote shares. 44% was only 5% better than the party achieved in 2001.
The Conservatives will be sure to come top, in terms of actual votes, seats, and County Councils in 1997 (they managed this even in 2001). I'd expect actual vote shares of c. Con 35%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 10%, Others 12%. I can't see how the Lib Dems could gain seats overall, though they may do in individual councils.
A post later in the same thread exonerated you.
Another PBer saw you lunching in Notting Hill and provided your alibi.
"The government says it will resist attempts to allow US-style political advertising on British TV ahead of an important legal judgement on the issue.
European judges are to rule on a legal challenge claiming a blanket ban on the adverts breaches right to free speech."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22238582
What bet the government will lose this one, especially since the headline says they will resist the attempts, and yet the ruling is on Monday, so any resistance that would be helpful must have already happened.
Let's face it, your best player in the last couple of months has already announced his retirement at the end of the season.
If the Libs do make gains of the Tories it would be dynamite.
"You have two good teams, there is a lot at stake. These games will get spicy."
Incidentally Avery did you notice in the employment statistics that manufacturing earnings are now almost as high as those in finance.
Taking into account the locations of manufacturing and finance work that means that manufacturing employment is relatively much better paid.
Perhaps you, Charles and RN should be encouraging young City workers to instead head north and get an engineering apprenticeship ;-)
Apart from that the employment stats do suggest this country is increasingly becoming a low skill, low pay, low productivity economy.
The decline in homeownership with the associated reduction in economic and social mobility also indicates this trend.
The 21st century could be as grim for this country as the 20th was good.
And with that grim prophecy I have to go for likely another few days.
The expenses farrago, Gordon Brown, and that youtube video, and 2009, was the first time in sixteen years, in which these elections weren't held on the same day as a general election, something which happened in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and which probably depressed the Labour/non Tory turnout in 2009.
I wonder if he's going to say to Ed "I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/21/ed-miliband-unwise-met-george-galloway?mobile-redirect=false
I'm starting to wonder if UKIP/Conservative is like DUP/UUP in the late 70's. UKIP seem to have the same kind of working class/lower middle class base of supporters, who feel betrayed by the elite.
The City of course is not underpaid but numbers employed have dropped by hundreds of thousands since the pre-crisis peaks.
You also need to note that I am the son of a Northern engineer, ar. One admittedly who didn't do much engineering in his life but he did write on the topic!
Whilst browsing the A to Z listings of the movies, one of them was a "niche" movie, called "Cocksure Captain" about a footballer called John Cherry (sic) who shags his team mates wives and girlfriends.
Just saying be careful if you want to google "John Cherry"
Well done to Ed for finishing. With all due respect I did not think he had the figure for it.
RT @RAWK_Meltdown: I'd rather have Suarez bite me, than have Giggs shag my missus, or Rooney shag me nan.
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland: Will Goodhand
Walsall North: Douglas Hansen-Luke
a total of 41 Tory selections in not held or vacant seats if I can count correctly
If that didnt flush Nuala out then I'd be worried for her!
You'll be all upset to know, that my stint as guest editor DOES NOT coincide with the Eurovision song contest, unlike last year.
The Tories have now selected candidates in 18 of their top 20 target seats. Great Grimsby and Birmingham Edgbaston are the two where they haven't yet selected:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc#gid=0
I'm going to need a new irony meter, but it will be a pointer for the 2015 General Election.
If the Libs take seats of the Tories in cornwall I think I will have proved my point.
It would be amazingly ironic if it were indeed FPTP that saved the Lib Dems.
The Tories really should have supported AV.
Unfortunately Labour's harder working activists in Cornwall didnt manage to get enough signatures to nominate anywhere near as many candidates as the Tories. Ah well.
http://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/326059872577789952/photo/1
http://www.listal.com/will-goodhand
Hopefuls are lined up or lining up for Bristol South, Lewisham Deptford, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Enfield North, Hendon, Hornsey, Brent Central, Calder Valley, Weaver Valley,Bury North, Manchester Withington, Hove, Brighton Kemptwon, Pudsey, Elmet, Arfon, South Basildon, Falkirk, etch
in some of them they are already at shortlisting stage, in others finishing the nomination process, in some the timetable has not even published yet.
Why was FPTP not good enough for the Police Commisioners ?
The whole article is all over the place. It's amazing how bad political journalism is in this country. The only thing they seem able to do is write process stories.