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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prospect of a vaccine by Christmas dominates the front pag
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prospect of a vaccine by Christmas dominates the front pages
A month ago I wrote here of the experiences of a friend of mine who had just left hospital after being struck down with Covid19 and concluded that the only way this crisis would come to an end was when a vaccine or palliative was widely available.
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Plus, you end with a beautiful smooth looking bladder.
Kamala Harris Evens
Susan Rice 3/1
Tammy Duckworth 6/1
Elizabeth Warren 12/1
Val Demings 12/1
Karen Bass 20/1
Michelle Obama 20/1
Keisha Lance Bottoms 33/1
Michelle Lujan Grisham 33/1
Stacey Abrams 50/1
That is all of those Shadsy lists at less than 100/1 and is posted because I too have a botox-free bladder and as a reminder of the perceived ranking of the likely candidates.
https://twitter.com/obamawhitehouse/status/540264863658823682
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-election-biden-running-mate/biden-facing-pressure-within-party-as-running-mate-search-enters-final-phase-idUKKCN24I17Y
The Times reports (following PB and American media) that Karen Bass has recently made the frame.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/joe-biden-considers-congresswoman-karen-bass-as-presidential-election-ally-5jdxbkt5p
In other news:
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1285431831798730753?s=19
I think the 'cautious' adjective is rather important in context. We really don't yet know how effective these vaccines could be, nor for how long any immune responses might last.
Sorry to be such a dismal Jimmy, but experience of medicines over 40+ years leads one to be cautious.
"Die-effects" = side-effects presumably, though it comes to the same thing.
It’s not going to be over by Christmas, but the strong prospect of effective vaccines is there. In the meantime, the widespread use of masks would ensure the least disruption to our lives.
It’s been getting more unreliable for a while, but this is even worse than normal.
Vanity face masks. Like individually designed tee shirts.
Someone's probably already thought of it.
They are creepy AF
Like every other virus ever this just has to run its course as it already is. I appreciate that gets the scaredy cats in a tizz but its reality.
The final outcome is a messy bundle of compromises. As part of the deal, the “frugals” will receive significant increases in the rebates they receive on their budget contributions, a throwback from 1984 when Margaret Thatcher secured discounts on the UK’s out-sized budget contributions.
And...
On the rule of law, France, Germany and other countries had wanted a link to EU funds but Hungary and Poland’s governments, who have been previously accused of undermining judicial independence and minority rights, rejected this plan.
The compromise agreed by the leaders instead puts off designing a rule of law mechanism for another day with agreement to be made by a qualified majority of member states.
The final deal on Monday also swung in Poland’s favour by watering down a demand to link green transition funds to signing up to the 2050 climate target to the consternation of activist groups and senior MEPs.
Poland, which stands to gain €37bn in grants from the fund, plus potentially billions more from a “just transition fund” to move away from coal, is the only EU member state not to have made the 2050 pledge.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/20/macron-seeks-end-acrimony-eu-summit-enters-fourth-day
However, as one who, at a local level was involved with school vaccination campaigns..... meningitis etc ....... I do wonder about the way a mass vaccination campaign will be conducted, if Hancock gets anywhere near it!
In the end, I suspect that Congress will come through with their similar current negotiations. The situation is too serious to allow them to fail.
https://twitter.com/WhitneyCummings/status/1284912177376198658
Ahhh yes, cold cash, where we all pay for those 32000 penpushers
My point is that the vaccine itself will not be the solution
Caution and masks remain essential for the time being, as you say.
The danger is that a lot of the tax revenues are lagging, so government income held up more than expected through Q1, but will drop off a cliff over the next year.
A vaccine is essential though before hospitals and primary care can function normally again. The slow productivity from PPE and social distancing has more than halved productivity.
But if the Government "borrowed" £130 billion ($165 billion) by June.
And if the Bank of England have done £310 billion of Quantitative Easing by June: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing
Then doesn't that mean we are in net LESS real debt than we were before this hit?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
I’m certain I’m missing some crucial details here, so any corrections are welcome.
The Quantitatively Eased debt is still accounted for as debt within the national figures and still counted as borrowing. Hence referring to "real" debt that the media very, very rarely does.
The lack of the transition period seen in other EU countries focussed all that immigration at the U.K rather than spreading it across the western EU, also helped by the universality of the English language.
A non-contributory benefits system, including in-work benefits, was the icing on the cake.
What a shame that no journalists seem to be economically literate or wanting to give the full picture rather than just spout off massive numbers.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/20/rbs-tells-50000-workers-not-return-office-2021/
If it does work then I should be fine given the amount of BCG I’ve had put into me over the last few years.
... smallpox, polio....
Sure.
At some point in the minds of the media and much of the public, the purpose of lockdown and social distancing has morphed from “flatten the curve” to “eliminate all risk”. With community infection rates as low as they are, the cure risks being worse than ailment. Roll out this vaccine, declare Mission Accomplished, stop with the daily doom stats and lets all crack on with our lives.
A certain number of annual deaths from infectious disease is a regrettable but unavoidable part of life. I don’t much care if the culprit calls itself Influenza or SARS Cov 2 or Big Barry, so long as the health impact is kept in balance with social and economic factors.
From reading that sounds like it may have some benefits against covid (and known risks) but would be likely to be less effective than specifically targeted vaccines.
Pre-Eastward expansion the two biggest foreign nationalities in the UK were I believe Indian and Irish. Now the two biggest are Polish and Romanian and that was with the maximum possible transition controls imposed on Romanian migration . . . all imposing controls meant was that the migration was delayed for a few years not that it didn't happen.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner
And why shouldn't that be the case. Some businesses will never return to their offices and that could improve efficiency . . . great!
n=1 etc, but I'm sure my neighbour won't go back to a daily commute, when he's been working from home apparently just as efficiently and seeing his family at lunchtime.
I agree that there’s no way commuting is coming back on the scale it was before - businesses have realised that remote working technology is now good enough to allow teams to meet in person for a few days a month and work remotely the rest of the time.
What that does mean, is there’s going to be several years’ worth of change happen very quickly, which is going to be bad news for London’s sandwich shops but good news for local high streets. And great news for the environment, a point that very few people seem to be making.
That study involved massive challenge doses of the virus, far higher than you’d get without a mask in a Covid ward. That they still detected virus in swabs isn’t entirely surprising, and I don’t think showed for sure any extent of continued replication.
It’s just as possible that the Oxford vaccine proves protective - only the PIII trials will determine that one way or the other - and in any event there are several other vaccines in human trials.
Have we discussed the change in planning law the government is proposing. Two storey extensions can be built with almost no need for any planning input from council? "prior approval service" will be the assumption.
I'm pretty sure where I am this will be a buy-to-let bonanza as professional landlords snap up property and immediately bolt on 2 stories going way out the back to allow for a HMO to be set up.
Especially if that can be paid for by money you're no long spending commuting. Don't know about others but I'd rather spend money improving my home than commuting!
What they do with the gilts in the medium term is anyone's guess.
Only so Cummings knows who to sack later.
The BOE covering most or all of net issuance is a repeat of 2009. If they do the same again, the big build up of debt net of BOE purchases will happen in subsequent years. Government borrowing will almost certainly stay elevated for several years from here.