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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s Tories get their best Opinium voting numbers since before the reports of the Cummings lockdown trip to Barnard Castle
Johnson's Opinium best PM lead down to 2%Johnson 36%Starmer 34%
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He is still yet to make any inroads into the Tory vote and in my view will not do unless we go to WTO terms Brexit in which case some Tory Remainers might switch to Labour or the LDs and some Labour 2017 to Tory 2019 switchers might switch back
Hmm.
Now we need to get rid of the damn tories then we can start again
Get a life
Decided to try one of our favourite cafe bars today for the first time since this all kicked off. It's located on the edge of town and has a lot of outdoor space to spill out onto. Loads of outdoor tables and a couple of marquees, pretty well all taken. So much trade that they were a bit slow getting the orders out. Their experiment in only trading Friday/Saturday/Sunday has also ended and they're back to normal hours - all quite encouraging. Town itself had a bit of life to it as well.
Am hopeful that things around here will be OK, provided that things don't go horribly wrong again in the Autumn... Meanwhile, travel into London (as evidenced by occupancy at the railway station car park) appears still to be operating, at a rough guess, at about 5% of pre-pandemic levels.
https://twitter.com/eatthe1youlove/status/1284493550797967360?s=20
thus annoying many trans activitsts and their allies. Yet, at the same time it has annoyed traditional feminists and their allies, by apparently siding with the trans lobby!
https://twitter.com/TheMalibuGirl/status/1284430505312690176?s=20
What a nasty war it is
Now, they aren't going under immediately: the Scott Trust has nearly £1bn in the bank.
But their brand could become so damaged in these cultutre skirmishes they have to relaunch. That's what happened to the News of the World of course, it was still making a profit, but the brand was shattered.
Ironic if that now happens to the Graun
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-53444700
They all have card payment only on the front doors.
It had always seemed to me to be axiomatic that as long as there were drug dealer, taxi drivers, small builders, on course bookies and people with a certain cautious wariness about the HMRC that cash would be around. Perhaps I am wrong.
More broadly, the Trans-TERF shenanigans is part of the inevitable process that occurs on the woke Left whenever two minority groups clash. Culture war narratives require that one side of an argument is not merely beaten but conquered and destroyed by the other, so it's not possible to mediate a truce between them, or to acknowledge that they might both have a point: one must be righteous and the other evil. The decision on whom is righteous and whom is evil is made by looking at their relative positions in the Hierarchy of Oppression. Transgender people occupy a much more exalted rank in the Hierarchy than feminists, so the feminists must be destroyed.
The Guardian appears simply to be falling victim to the trends that it has helped to define. The feminists are angry with it because they think it's taken a stance against them, and the trans lobby are now getting angry because - well, God knows, perhaps for not taking a hard enough line against the feminists, or for a slight that happened in 1986, or for some mythical offence that occurred only inside their own minds? Anti-social media is so prolific and so very, very nasty that it's quite impossible to keep track of all these controversies and, moreover, no sane human being would want to.
Inevitably a cashless society ends up in your friend saying can I borrow 20£ off you I forgot my wallet and HMRC sending him a tax bill for what he owes as they count it as income.
I worked in bars in the early 90s, we could refuse service to anyone we wished back then without having to justify why, it's the only sector that this is the case.
It's just an extension of that, dozens and dozens of bars in Manchester are cashless given the types of customers they serve and the way they operate.
Anecdata from East London this morning - busier but not back to pre-Covid levels. B&Q surprisingly quiet and supermarket quieter than I'd expect on a Saturday.
It may be with more people at home during the week the normal weekend trade is down a little but that's supposition. Traffic levels nearer normal but not there yet.
Neighbour tells me the morning Tubes are busier again and of course social distancing is already more honoured in the breach then the observance.
As far as card vs cash - the only cash I used was a £1 coin for the shopping trolley. I'll still use cash for my paper and for small purchases but generally it's been card all the way since the pandemic started.
Disappointing to see the pandemic referred to as a "hoax" or a "myth". 60,000 people have died from this hoax.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldfinger_(film)
You can bleat whats preferred all you like I dont give a damn what they prefer
2. It is morally empty for an opposition to sit there, hoping that something will come up.
2b. .. and, I think, will get appropriately 'rewarded' at the ballot box.
It may be hard, just as getting cash may be for some who life electronically.
Labour's big hope under these circumstances is a deep and extended economic horror. If things don't get too bad for too long, and Sunak can thus emerge from the mess with his reputation substantially intact, then the Tories head towards the next election with a decent lead already in the bank and a more presentable alternative leader available to install.
I mean, personally, I think that the economic horror will be awful and that all bets are consequently off, but if you're a bit less pessimistic than I am (which isn't difficult) then it's possible to imagine the Tories coming out of the other end of this in decent shape.
FWIW the Guardian has enraged anti-Semites:
https://twitter.com/flyingdancer/status/1284439677550727170?s=20
But it has also enraged philo-Semites ( ithink)
https://twitter.com/ztarasj/status/1283790744306610176?s=20
And Muslims
https://twitter.com/haseebchaudhary/status/1283415599159353353?s=20
and Ex Guardian writers
https://twitter.com/claseur/status/1283472378761113600?s=20
And Corbyn's wife
https://twitter.com/LauraAlvarezJC/status/1283726451360047104?s=20
As you say, it is being destroyed by the ID politics it helped to construct.
I think that's by far the most likely outcome, rather than an unduly pessimistic one. It's also a 2021 scenario where Starmer has every prospect of making substantial inroads into the 2019 Tory vote.
Legal tender has a narrow technical meaning It means that if you offer to fully pay off a debt to someone in legal tender, they can’t sue you for failing to repay.
Is the legal definition currently
It should be amended to say must be accepted as payment for services
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1pUXH1Bye88
Boris has also made clear austerity is over and the only tax rises considered might be a review of capital gains tax for the wealthy, middle income voters will be untouched and of course Starmer will always raise tax more than Boris anyway.
So no, WTO terms Brexit is the only thing that might really change voting intention
I also look forward to their polling in 2022 and 2023, closer to the point when it really matters.
I have to make an effort to get cash.
Others would have to go to an effort to get a payment card, their choice not to if they so choose.
https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/comment/96894330#Comment_96894330
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty_Shades_of_Grey_(film)
In a new movie, that scene would get it a straight 18 cert - not the PG it got at the time.