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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can Johnson raise the Tories’ game above Easy mode? Can Labour force him to?
Why did the Lib Dems choose the Tories over Labour after the inconclusive 2010 general election? Although only a decade ago, it could as well have been a lifetime given how much has changed since – and in the last five years in particular. But that change makes the question all the more pertinent.
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And with the ultimate political chancer at its head.
As per the substance to the issue of apparently deciding to make wearing masks mandatory in "shops" (as opposed to guidance backed up by powerful advertising campaigns to encourage 'social (un)acceptability) - it'll be interesting to discover how such legislation will be drafted. How will one know that one is entering a 'shop' as opposed to, say, a bar or restaurant? And what happens to "shops" which serve food or drink on premises?
Trump-Roger Stone, wow!
Can Labour force him to? It remains to be seen how much Labour can improve, but currently Starmer is popular and the party isn't. So a lot depends on whether voters start seeing Starmer as just another Labour politician or seeing Labour as having been changed by Starmer.
But there's a third question: will it be Johnson who has the task of raising their game? My main conclusion from the last few months is the Tories aren't going to risk going into a 2024 election with Johnson in charge. So the question is whether Sunak, Javid or Hunt (for example) can raise their game, and the answer to that is that they couldn't conceivably do any worse than Johnson is.
So, since this is a political betting site, my money is against Starmer being next PM. Next but one? Possibly. Actual next PM? The Tories aren't that daft.
In any case who wins the next general election is largely out of Starmer's hands in my view. It depends entirely on the outcome of Brexit. If the transition period ends with no trade deal and WTO terms Brexit then Starmer has a good chance of becoming PM as he offers an acceptable alternative for Tory Remainers and soft Brexiteers who will then switch to Labour and the LDs.
If however Boris gets a trade deal with the EU that protects the economy and ends free movement the Tories will likely be re elected whatever Starmer does.
If the transition period is extended beyond the next general election then Leavers will return to the Brexit Party from the Tories and Starmer could get in on a split vote on the right
Doubts cast on EDF's ability to build power stations on time and budget
(Telegraph)
However, it’s the third factor which is the most potent: political fundamentals. Keir Starmer has a considerable lead over Boris Johnson in terms of favourability, and is more-or-less level in ‘Best PM’ rating.
Perhaps those favourability ratings are necessary but far from sufficient.
I think Starmer was the right choice for Labour, but only because the other options were worse. I know people don't like career politicians, but there is something to be said for politicians learning the trade. I don't get the sense that Starmer has much nous. Perhaps he should seek some help from someone like David who very much knows his apples.
https://www.thebigbloomerscompany.co.uk/collections/face-masks
They make all their stuff in UK and Italy.
The founding fathers did try.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/10/downing-streets-reboot-has-michael-gove-dominic-cummings-heart/
The performance of the hard left since December suggests they have not gone away.
Blair had the work of Kinnock and Smith behind him, taking years, and still had to revolutionise his party to be elected against a useless Tory party in 1997. SKS has no such advantage.
As a centrist I warm to SKS but he is still a million miles from me even thinking of voting Labour. And I think there are millions more who think the same.
As an aside, that's the entire weekend's news sorted then.
I wonder if any party can win an election that does not truly comprehend the other side. It is their voters' votes you need to win over. Something that even Laura 'Never Kissed a Tory' Pidcock may be beginning to comprehend. There is no doubt at all that Blair understood this very well.
But 14 years will be a long time, and totally aside from any of their own actions the Tories' opportunities will be fewer. Can Labour get a grip at last? The job will be easier over time, but they mustn't allow their hatred of Boris to make themselves complacent about the task
Social media.
He’s doing all the right things but somehow comes across as a bit phoney.
I suspect people will figure this out
Next thing you know its the end of a second Democratic term.
https://www.virustaticshield.com/
All those on here now claiming Starmer a dud (and they may be right) were also declaring Blair to be Bambi, lightweight and over excited.
I mean a major problem for Corbyn was he was a professional politician who liked to pretend he wasn't one because he was unorthodox. When he might have spent some of his 30 years in parliament learning political skills with MPs. It meant he was pretty good at one aspect of his job but hamstrung with another.
In Leeds there is a bar that is also a bakers. Mask up to buy a loaf, no mask to buy a pint?
The opposition need revolutionary zeal combined with populist accessibility. The ideal would be an individual who combined the worst features of Mao Zedong and Graham Norton.
I am not entirely sure your "from a textbook" notion is wrong, but compared to the current incumbent whos source of reference would seem to be a copy of the Beano, I am not sure that is a bad thing.
Fundamentally he was charismatic and had a very high EQ. Starmer seems to me like he’s trying to hard - some consultant has told him he needs to emote and he’s trying really hard, but it’s like he’s straining to pass a difficult shit
I think David is half right here. As others have commented this government is not continuity Conservative and is most certainly not on easy mode. I think it aspires to be the most radical administration since Thatcher, but we'll see.
Starmer has not had a good week. He lived up to his Captain Hindsight persona by trying to get an apology from the PM about what happened in Care Homes months ago, and then walked into an ambush on NHS parking charges. It's quite a few weeks now since the PM was obviously second best at PMQs.
An hour or so later Dodds response to Sunak's Summer Statement was an ill-judged rambling rant. Already she looks out of her depth against Sunak and in doing so reinforces the view that Starmer's shadow cabinet is seriously under powered.
Yesterday's YouGov reinforced how much Labour has to do to convince voters it is worth a hearing never mind being a government in waiting. Starmer should start by saying something of substance for once.
The first priority was to establish Starmer as a reasonably alternative PM and a serious bloke worth listening to, as well as building a loyal team. The next challenge will be getting past the anti-semitism report, which is imminent. Awkardly for the Opposition, recess then intervenes, but by the time Parliament returns in September the economic landscape will look menacing and Brexit will be looming. I'd expect much more aggression at that point.
Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
If I were going into one I think I would wear a mask unless I were eating or drinking there and then. What the law would say I have no idea, but my version of common sense would be wear a mask unless it is impossible, for example when eating.
I am shielding at the moment but I did have to go to a hospital yesterday for treatment and so wore a mask. Does anyone know how to stop glasses steaming up?
Because they were idiots. They thought they could prevent political parties from coming into existence.
We could be needing these well into next year
He knows that we know he is lying but he does it anyway.
I am not expecting cross over for at least six months. I expect the low double digit leads to return for a while before that comes to pass. There is no buyers remorse out there for Johnson yet.
When the change comes, maybe Spring next year, it could be brutal for the Conservatives.
In one sense I think it is a category error: electorates don’t make mistakes because the question they are asked is who do you want, not who would be best.
Even if you think it was a mistake (and don’t forget the alternative was Jeremy) you are not going to get very far telling electors they were wrong. You need to work out what their reasons were for voting the way they did and persuade them that those reasons no longer apply so they can now do something different.
Thomas Hobbes was right "life is short, nasty and brutish", particularly if one can't watch Bargain Hunt!
Thus proving that Hunt is not the sort of 'talent' we need in government.
I think that the fact he was a DPP has confused some people into thinking that SKS is in the last category. I doubt he ever was. Much more of the first category early in his career and then a bit of the second as he became more of an administrator. People claimed his questioning of Boris was "forensic". To me, it seemed wooden and that was painfully demonstrated this week when he found it impossible to think on his feet and change his tack. Those who expect SKS to get stuck in about Boris are going to be sadly disappointed.
None of this means that SKS is not clever (he is) or that he is not a massive improvement on Corbyn (obviously). It does not mean that he cannot come across as careful, measured and Prime Ministerial. I think he can but David is right that he is much more suited to being PM than being LOTO.
He has time to learn on the job but he will never, ever have the ready wit or cutting edge that either Cameron or Blair had. He just doesn't think that way. This wouldn't matter if he had a strong team around him but the shadow cabinet is very weak. Will he have the courage to bring back Hilary Benn or Yvette Cooper? The remaining Corbynites would not like it but he needs some gravitas and thinking around him. Dodds is a weakness and is in opposition to this government's strength. Its a problem he is going to have to sort.
It does though seem to me that the past couple of pieces from David have merely reflect the week's mood music. Last week the piece was predicting a Labour opinion poll lead before the summer ends, this one somewhat different after a week with the YouGov poll and more 'feel goodery' from Rishi Sunak.
https://www.history.com/news/founding-fathers-political-parties-opinion
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/08/imagine-the-state-wed-be-in-if-corbyn-had-been-in-charge-the-view-from-the-red-wall
An Iron Age skeleton with his hands bound has been discovered by HS2 project archaeologists, who believe he may be a murder victim...
Dr Wood said: "The death of the Wellwick Farm man remains a mystery to us, but there aren't many ways you end up in a bottom of a ditch, face down, with your hands bound.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-53366209
Having said that, does your method solve the glasses misting up problem?
What Labour needs to do is properly analyse and understand how and why Labour under JC overachieved in 2017 yet underperformed in 2019. I'm not sure its report even asked the right questions.