Has Collins been hacked? This twitter feed now shows a photo of the Times owner and a woman who has just been arrested by the FBI and all tweets are locked.
Steven Pinker the latest to be objected to. I had him down as a real progressive liberal type from watching his interviews/lectures and reading... the first few pages of his books
If you think hating on Steven Pinker is a new thing by "the left" then there is approximately a decade+ of "Fuck Steven Pinker" blog posts for you to discover.
I can believe it, I take your word for it; the idea of a Blank Slate would obviously be too much for them to handle.
The biggest critics of Pinker are the scientist and philosophers in the fields which his books are purportedly about who review his books and give them an utter kicking.
He consistently and repeatedly mis-characterise or ignores research to fit his narrative. He's Malcolm Gladwell with white hair.
I went to see Pinker speak (invite from a friend) to promote his last book. He was utterly facile. Perhaps I am missing something.
Like Gladwell he's got a shallow un-threatening message package up as "big thoughts" that chimes with what people want to hear.
He confirms people's pre-conceived notions and makes them feel good about themselves.
He’s a very fluent writer tho, very readable, hence his success. I sometimes enjoy his insights, other times they seem banal.
Most of all he is utterly unobjectionable, he just doesn’t espouse hardcore BLM Marxism. Which means the mob could literally come for anyone outside that core, crazy clique of theirs
People keep forgetting the first rule of Woke Club. It’s impossible to be too woke, and eventually they will turn their sights on you.
Pinker has never been anywhere near the word Woke.
He's long been a "It's Political Correctness gone mad" type.
Steven Pinker the latest to be objected to. I had him down as a real progressive liberal type from watching his interviews/lectures and reading... the first few pages of his books
If you think hating on Steven Pinker is a new thing by "the left" then there is approximately a decade+ of "Fuck Steven Pinker" blog posts for you to discover.
I can believe it, I take your word for it; the idea of a Blank Slate would obviously be too much for them to handle.
The biggest critics of Pinker are the scientist and philosophers in the fields which his books are purportedly about who review his books and give them an utter kicking.
He consistently and repeatedly mis-characterise or ignores research to fit his narrative. He's Malcolm Gladwell with white hair.
I had a feeling he wouldn't be your cup of splosh
Not heard of him before but having read his wiki entry I think I need to order some of his books. They sound exactly my cup of tea.
I have watched his stuff and found it interesting, maybe that just means he is a stupid persons idea of what a clever person is!
Should I be concerned until this evening I had never heard of this Steven Pinker fellow?
A schoolboy error!
I understood the correct PB procedure to be thus, in the event of topical ignorance, the subject should be googled, Wikipedia results digested and then commented upon with an air of smug confidence.
Imagine what the Keir Starmer fan club would say if this was Jezza's CoftE!
Mind you, she ticks the Centrist boxes
"Born in Aberdeen and privately educated at Robert Gordon College, Dodds studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at St Hilda's College, Oxford, Social Policy at the University of Edinburgh and Government at the London School of Economics. She lectured in Public Policy at King’s College London and Aston University."
One issue I do wonder about a bit with Starmer is how much of his top team is effectively made up of sort of rather high-end, theoretical professionals.
Dodds - university lecturer Thomas - university lecturer Nandy - charity policy wonk Starmer himself - lawyer/civil servant.
As against that, Rayner definitely does not in any way, shape or form fit that mould.
Good point, but let’s look at the govt:
Johnson - journalist / tv host Gove - journalist / tv host Cummings - something dodgy in Russia Shapps - confidence trickster Williamson - fireplace salesman Patel - lung cancer advocate.
Even Sunak gives off the vague air of a man who has married not just money but access to power.
I didnt know Gove had done a TV show! Apparently Gove went through celebs rubbish bins.....
Has Collins been hacked? This twitter feed now shows a photo of the Times owner and a woman who has just been arrested by the FBI and all tweets are locked.
Steven Pinker the latest to be objected to. I had him down as a real progressive liberal type from watching his interviews/lectures and reading... the first few pages of his books
If you think hating on Steven Pinker is a new thing by "the left" then there is approximately a decade+ of "Fuck Steven Pinker" blog posts for you to discover.
I can believe it, I take your word for it; the idea of a Blank Slate would obviously be too much for them to handle.
The biggest critics of Pinker are the scientist and philosophers in the fields which his books are purportedly about who review his books and give them an utter kicking.
He consistently and repeatedly mis-characterise or ignores research to fit his narrative. He's Malcolm Gladwell with white hair.
I had a feeling he wouldn't be your cup of splosh
Not heard of him before but having read his wiki entry I think I need to order some of his books. They sound exactly my cup of tea.
I have watched his stuff and found it interesting, maybe that just means he is a stupid persons idea of what a clever person is!
Has Collins been hacked? This twitter feed now shows a photo of the Times owner and a woman who has just been arrested by the FBI and all tweets are locked.
Very odd.
And who's f***ing around with the Off Topic button again? I thought TSE said that would result in bans as it spams OGH with emails.
Must admit to being a wee bit shocked that there are PBers who haven't heard of Pinker. And not even the..er..more intellectually challenged ones.
I'm solely fighting the parts of the culture war that matter, you know the war on pineapple as a topping on pizza and making people realise that Die Hard was released in July 1988 and thus isn't a Christmas film.
I haven't got time for the flotsam and jetsam of the culture wars.
Steven Pinker the latest to be objected to. I had him down as a real progressive liberal type from watching his interviews/lectures and reading... the first few pages of his books
If you think hating on Steven Pinker is a new thing by "the left" then there is approximately a decade+ of "Fuck Steven Pinker" blog posts for you to discover.
I can believe it, I take your word for it; the idea of a Blank Slate would obviously be too much for them to handle.
The biggest critics of Pinker are the scientist and philosophers in the fields which his books are purportedly about who review his books and give them an utter kicking.
He consistently and repeatedly mis-characterise or ignores research to fit his narrative. He's Malcolm Gladwell with white hair.
I had a feeling he wouldn't be your cup of splosh
Not heard of him before but having read his wiki entry I think I need to order some of his books. They sound exactly my cup of tea.
I have watched his stuff and found it interesting, maybe that just means he is a stupid persons idea of what a clever person is!
Has Collins been hacked? This twitter feed now shows a photo of the Times owner and a woman who has just been arrested by the FBI and all tweets are locked.
Very odd.
And who's f***ing around with the Off Topic button again? I thought TSE said that would result in bans as it spams OGH with emails.
Steven Pinker the latest to be objected to. I had him down as a real progressive liberal type from watching his interviews/lectures and reading... the first few pages of his books
If you think hating on Steven Pinker is a new thing by "the left" then there is approximately a decade+ of "Fuck Steven Pinker" blog posts for you to discover.
I can believe it, I take your word for it; the idea of a Blank Slate would obviously be too much for them to handle.
The biggest critics of Pinker are the scientist and philosophers in the fields which his books are purportedly about who review his books and give them an utter kicking.
He consistently and repeatedly mis-characterise or ignores research to fit his narrative. He's Malcolm Gladwell with white hair.
I had a feeling he wouldn't be your cup of splosh
Not heard of him before but having read his wiki entry I think I need to order some of his books. They sound exactly my cup of tea.
I have watched his stuff and found it interesting, maybe that just means he is a stupid persons idea of what a clever person is!
Must admit to being a wee bit shocked that there are PBers who haven't heard of Pinker. And not even the..er..more intellectually challenged ones.
I'm solely fighting the parts of the culture war that matter, you know the war on pineapple as a topping on pizza and making people realise that Die Hard was released in July 1988 and thus isn't a Christmas film.
I haven't got time for the flotsam and jetsam of the culture wars.
You need to chill out by watching The Last Jedi so you can marvel about how it's the best Star Wars movie...
Steven Pinker the latest to be objected to. I had him down as a real progressive liberal type from watching his interviews/lectures and reading... the first few pages of his books
If you think hating on Steven Pinker is a new thing by "the left" then there is approximately a decade+ of "Fuck Steven Pinker" blog posts for you to discover.
I can believe it, I take your word for it; the idea of a Blank Slate would obviously be too much for them to handle.
The biggest critics of Pinker are the scientist and philosophers in the fields which his books are purportedly about who review his books and give them an utter kicking.
He consistently and repeatedly mis-characterise or ignores research to fit his narrative. He's Malcolm Gladwell with white hair.
I had a feeling he wouldn't be your cup of splosh
Not heard of him before but having read his wiki entry I think I need to order some of his books. They sound exactly my cup of tea.
I have watched his stuff and found it interesting, maybe that just means he is a stupid persons idea of what a clever person is!
If SLAB could actually find a decent leader that would help.
I have seen no evidence at all that he is interested in such a role, but would not Gordon Brown be an obvious person to appoint to that position? He would surely be a strong candidate to put forward as First Minister and likely to appeal to many who have switched from Labour to SNP.
That would be fantastic Justin. Please try your best to persuade Brown. What could possibly go wrong?
Has Collins been hacked? This twitter feed now shows a photo of the Times owner and a woman who has just been arrested by the FBI and all tweets are locked.
Must admit to being a wee bit shocked that there are PBers who haven't heard of Pinker. And not even the..er..more intellectually challenged ones.
I'm solely fighting the parts of the culture war that matter, you know the war on pineapple as a topping on pizza and making people realise that Die Hard was released in July 1988 and thus isn't a Christmas film.
I haven't got time for the flotsam and jetsam of the culture wars.
You need to chill out by watching The Last Jedi so you can marvel about how it's the best Star Wars movie...
Steven Pinker the latest to be objected to. I had him down as a real progressive liberal type from watching his interviews/lectures and reading... the first few pages of his books
If you think hating on Steven Pinker is a new thing by "the left" then there is approximately a decade+ of "Fuck Steven Pinker" blog posts for you to discover.
I can believe it, I take your word for it; the idea of a Blank Slate would obviously be too much for them to handle.
The biggest critics of Pinker are the scientist and philosophers in the fields which his books are purportedly about who review his books and give them an utter kicking.
He consistently and repeatedly mis-characterise or ignores research to fit his narrative. He's Malcolm Gladwell with white hair.
I had a feeling he wouldn't be your cup of splosh
Not heard of him before but having read his wiki entry I think I need to order some of his books. They sound exactly my cup of tea.
I have watched his stuff and found it interesting, maybe that just means he is a stupid persons idea of what a clever person is!
I see Establishment toadie Neil Oliver has been sacked by the National Trust for Scotland, after supporting... wait for it... David Starkey. You couldn’t make it up.
What is it about Unionists that makes them take out a whacking great shotgun, aim for their foot, and pull the trigger?
Must admit to being a wee bit shocked that there are PBers who haven't heard of Pinker. And not even the..er..more intellectually challenged ones.
I'm solely fighting the parts of the culture war that matter, you know the war on pineapple as a topping on pizza and making people realise that Die Hard was released in July 1988 and thus isn't a Christmas film.
I haven't got time for the flotsam and jetsam of the culture wars.
You need to chill out by watching The Last Jedi so you can marvel about how it's the best Star Wars movie...
I see Establishment toadie Neil Oliver has been sacked by the National Trust for Scotland, after supporting... wait for it... David Starkey. You couldn’t make it up.
What is it about Unionists that makes them take out a whacking great shotgun, aim for their foot, and pull the trigger?
Shame on National Trust for Scotland is all I will say, Oliver is an excellent historian
Every electric car sold in the US now has a J1772 connector, except Tesla (and even Tesla includes a free converter).
I am driving today from Brentwood in North West Los Angeles, to Laguna Niguel in Orange County. There are a surprising number of 150 - 350 KW fast chargers along the way should I need to stop. (It's 200 miles round trip, which will be fine.)
The big issue is not so much the number of fast CCS chargers in the US, it is the fact that you don't know where they are because there are at least two large networks and a host of smaller ones.
America went for the really old Japanese standard? Blimey. As for chargers in the UK there genuinely are a lot springing up. But a lot a lot of networks. All with different payment systems and wildly different pricing for the electricity. Not remotely user-friendly.
OK, technically it's a J1772/CCS combo. It charges my car at up to 350KWh (theoretical and peak and only achievable for short bursts). Still, I can go from 5% to 75% on a fast charger in about 25 minutes. (Which is 200 miles of range.)
I've no financial background so you might have to forgive this but....
How many cars would a mature low growth Tesla have to sell to justify that valuation?
What percentage of the total EV market is a mature Tesla going to occupy?
To my financial illiteracy this parabolic valuation seems to assume limited competition from all the other established auto makers.
Proposition one: in the future, all cars will be electric. Proposition two: in tech, the winner (Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, etc.) utterly dominates returns. Proposition three: the electric car industry is part of the tech industry.
If you believe all three, then Tesla is worth $250bn.
I am sceptical about proposition three, which means proposition two doesn't apply.
I'd say proposition two applies to most industries.
I don't think so.
In telecoms, the best returns (i.e. multiple of profits to capital invested) often went to the niche players, rather the big ones. In pharmaceuticals, it's a similar story . Traditional auto had a bunch of (modestly) profitable firms, none of which had dramatically different margins: Ford, GM, Chrysler, Nissan, Toyota, BMW, VW etc.
Tech is one of a very few industries where the advantages of standardization are such that de facto monopolies exist because scale begets scale.
Its worth thinking that traditional auto did coalesce into a few big companies though too. Just how many brands are actually part of a larger organisation?
Tesla have also thought smartly about scaling up. Their "Gigafactories" are being built on a bigger scale than traditional auto factories and it's entirely possible that in the future traditional auto is going to find it very hard to compete with Tesla.
I have absolutely no doubt that Tesla will be one of the leading auto manufacturers in the world a decade from now, and may even be the largest single firm by number of cars delivered.
But they won't be on 40-50% market share, with 80% of industry profits.
They will be on a 15-20% share, with 20-25% of industry profits.
And the power industry ?
I disagree about Tesla not being tech (they design their own chips; they are potential leaders in battery tech; they are heavily involved in industrial automation). Whether that justifies the current valuation is quite another matter.
(& it’s entirely possible, though only possible, that they take 50% of the electric vehicle market within a decade.)
They have 50% of the electric vehicle market (outside China) today. The question is, given a very limited selection of vehicles and improving products from everyone else, can they keep it?
If the I-Pace was better engineered, it would fill the spot held by the Tiguan/Macan as a midsized SUV. Sadly, it just feels cheap inside.
Next couple of years will likely answer that question. That a startup has managed to thrive during the worst recession we’re ever likely to see, while its competition has floundered is a point is their favour. And they do seem to be able to build factories a great deal quicker than anyone else. You’re right that one key determinant is batteries (hence their recent purchase of Maxwell Tech... and Grohman in Germany). Lots of possible surprises there.
It’s a gamble, and although I wouldn’t bet on them, I wouldn’t bet against them, either.
I've no financial background so you might have to forgive this but....
How many cars would a mature low growth Tesla have to sell to justify that valuation?
What percentage of the total EV market is a mature Tesla going to occupy?
To my financial illiteracy this parabolic valuation seems to assume limited competition from all the other established auto makers.
Proposition one: in the future, all cars will be electric. Proposition two: in tech, the winner (Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, etc.) utterly dominates returns. Proposition three: the electric car industry is part of the tech industry.
If you believe all three, then Tesla is worth $250bn.
I am sceptical about proposition three, which means proposition two doesn't apply.
I'd say proposition two applies to most industries.
I don't think so.
In telecoms, the best returns (i.e. multiple of profits to capital invested) often went to the niche players, rather the big ones. In pharmaceuticals, it's a similar story . Traditional auto had a bunch of (modestly) profitable firms, none of which had dramatically different margins: Ford, GM, Chrysler, Nissan, Toyota, BMW, VW etc.
Tech is one of a very few industries where the advantages of standardization are such that de facto monopolies exist because scale begets scale.
Its worth thinking that traditional auto did coalesce into a few big companies though too. Just how many brands are actually part of a larger organisation?
Tesla have also thought smartly about scaling up. Their "Gigafactories" are being built on a bigger scale than traditional auto factories and it's entirely possible that in the future traditional auto is going to find it very hard to compete with Tesla.
I have absolutely no doubt that Tesla will be one of the leading auto manufacturers in the world a decade from now, and may even be the largest single firm by number of cars delivered.
But they won't be on 40-50% market share, with 80% of industry profits.
They will be on a 15-20% share, with 20-25% of industry profits.
And the power industry ?
I disagree about Tesla not being tech (they design their own chips; they are potential leaders in battery tech; they are heavily involved in industrial automation). Whether that justifies the current valuation is quite another matter.
(& it’s entirely possible, though only possible, that they take 50% of the electric vehicle market within a decade.)
... by which time the 'electric vehicle market' will be most of the 'vehicle market'.
Easy path to $100bn annual revenues within 3 years, when you tot up Model 3,Model Y and Cybertruck programme. This is without considering growth potential from logistics (Semi trucks, delivery trucks, port services), energy (solar, storage, grid services including taking out gas peaker plants), self driving (including media services to passengers) and a "cheap" Model 4.
At $100bn a steady state net profit margin of high single digits seems possible. Let's say 8%. At that point would a 30x valuation multiple for a company with such high growth potential really be unreasonable?
This seems overvalued to some people because it's at the inflection point in its growth story. It will seem obvious in 3 years.
I think your profit margin expectations are a little high, but I agree with your general outlook. Here's how I'd think about this.
Around 60 million new cars are sold each year. In a decade, two thirds of these will be electric. So that's about a 40 million car opportunity. Average revenue per unit will be $25,000. So that a $1 trillion market.
Tesla will probably have 25% of that market, and be the leading player. So that's a $250bn sales opportunity (albeit in a decade).
The highest operating margin in the auto world in 16%, at Porsche. Tesla is mass market so will probably be a little lower, say 13-14%. But we do need to apply tax to this, which means we get to a c. 8-9% net profit margin. Which is $20bn.
At this point, the market will be largely ex-growth so we wouldn't want to pay too much for it - say 15x. Which means that the car part of Tesla is probably worth $300bn, in 2030.
Add in the other parts of the Tesla puzzle - like the batteries and the solar, and you might get to add another $50bn.
The problem is that you're paying an awful lot now for $350bn in a decade.
Now, could Tesla do better than that? Sure, of course. But it could also end up with 20% of 50% of the car industry on a 10% operating margin. Suddenly, we've found ourselves not looking so clever.
There’s said to be circa 2bn functional autos on the planet. Come 2030 there will be a flood to replace them with EVs given a) the economics, b) legislative direction. Far quicker than 60m per year.
Perhaps we won’t need 2bn autos because of advances in ride sharing mixed with autonomy. But if that ever takes off, Tesla are likely to be the ones leading it and that takes them to a multi trillion valuation.
Missing piece is supply of batteries. Let’s see what they say about that later this year. They need to become a mining company in my opinion.
Two billion divided by 60 suggests that the average car lasts 33 years on the road, that seems... very high. Now, I know that car sales peaked at 80m a couple of years ago, but even so that number suggests that cars have much greater longevity than is actually the case.
But let's go with a little more than a billion, which is probably about right. And I am a believer that in the future *all* cars will be electric - I just am sceptical about the time horizons required for TSLA to be a screaming buy here, given that there's an inevitable pull in the other direction. A diminishing number of cars on the road lowers the price of oil, which makes petrol powered vehicles more economic. This means those (mostly poorer) people with old petrol cars aren't going to be in any hurry to move to new electric ones.
But renewables and batteries are going to drop in price steadily (and possibly rapidly), too. Oil can only drop in price so far.
Steven Pinker the latest to be objected to. I had him down as a real progressive liberal type from watching his interviews/lectures and reading... the first few pages of his books
The mob have got their hands of a picture of him with Jeffrey Epstein.. and Dan Dennett, Richard Dawkins etc. Guilt by association, he's a...
...non believer!
God I hate god!
Not sure why God is the target for your ire?
Oh not especially. I mainly disapprove of his associates.
He clearly doesn't exist so there's limited point in disapproval, but his associates are both unpleasant and virulent.
I had a soft spot for the Pope, but alas.
Are Steven Pinker, Jeffrey Epstein, or Dan Dennett are practising God-botherers (Dawkins is vocally not)? Are the people attacking them? In most cases I'd assume not.
I think the true belief Isam referred to was the new bigotry of the woke. Who are both unpleasant and virulent, but again, nothing to do with God, or his associates.
It was god's associates I disapproved of. If you wear a silly hat and call yourself by a silly name because you wish to participate in one of history's great non-senses then that'll be up to you.
No gods.
Funny you should choose a post about twattish atheists to make your point then.
Comments
Has Collins been hacked? This twitter feed now shows a photo of the Times owner and a woman who has just been arrested by the FBI and all tweets are locked.
He's long been a "It's Political Correctness gone mad" type.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjQM8PzCEY0
I understood the correct PB procedure to be thus, in the event of topical ignorance, the subject should be googled, Wikipedia results digested and then commented upon with an air of smug confidence.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=562966514257851&id=405130486265107&_rdr
If you like him, you will like Tim Harford (the Undercover Economist).
Lots of people don't like economics, because it is - effectively - applied psychology.
And who's f***ing around with the Off Topic button again? I thought TSE said that would result in bans as it spams OGH with emails.
I haven't got time for the flotsam and jetsam of the culture wars.
Didn't stop me storming the exam, mind.
Either way, they will be punished.
Cancel.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1280243637528465412?s=09
What is it about Unionists that makes them take out a whacking great shotgun, aim for their foot, and pull the trigger?
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/06/anger-after-johnson-appears-to-blame-care-homes-for-their-high-death-toll
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1280248295202459651
That a startup has managed to thrive during the worst recession we’re ever likely to see, while its competition has floundered is a point is their favour. And they do seem to be able to build factories a great deal quicker than anyone else.
You’re right that one key determinant is batteries (hence their recent purchase of Maxwell Tech... and Grohman in Germany).
Lots of possible surprises there.
It’s a gamble, and although I wouldn’t bet on them, I wouldn’t bet against them, either.
Oil can only drop in price so far.