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One of the really interesting features of the White House election that takes place four months from today is the series of ads from the Lincoln Project – a Republican body that is seeking to do everything it can to undermine the Republican incumbent, Donald Trump.
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As mentioned on a previous thread, it might be too clever for some of the target audience...
There was an interesting article republished here from RCP earlier indicating that Trump's real soft spot was any linkage between his character and real policy disasters, notably C-19.
It's #FBPE all over again, tweeting stuff to make themselves feel good but has zero impact on the outside world.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1278655030426578944?s=20
People won't go out if they don't feel safe. And if they don't go out, then you get all the economic consequences of a lockdown without any of the actual benefits of wiping out the virus. (Which is why Sweden has performed less well economically than neighbours Denmark and Germany, and even - astonishingly - France.)
This is what the US faces. People won't go out because they're scared. They will sit at home and not spend their money and not send their kids to school. And the level of infections will remain stubbornly high.
A more honest way of asking the question would be to ask:
"Would you prefer to pay more tax yourself or receive lower levels of service (NHS, Social Care, Pensions) yourself?
That might not produce the same answer.
Exactly - it's his USP!
What happened to football’s perfectly serviceable “Kick It Out” anti-racism campaign? That would have been a much better brand to have used.
Is there a name for a double U-turn? Is it a W-Turn?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53255964
My better half has been helping her mother to the shops today. They were absolutely mobbed. Not even 1 in 10 is wearing a mask. In fact, from my own observations, I would say that mask use is down from a month ago.
You can make arguments in favour of or against masks but Scotland's current position is nothing short of nuts.
Brave of the one region strongly against it though
An S-turn
That's not Trump's style. And I think it's his greatest weakness. Getting re-elected means you want to try and expand your coalition. And Trump has doubled down on his core vote strategy.
To work it requires that the people he connects with - non-urban whites - come out in record numbers. Can it work? Yes, of course. US Presidential elections are relatively low-turnout, and if you can really enthuse the base you can win.
But it's a pretty high risk strategy. Because you are throwing away some votes (hopefully to DNV) and hoping you collect more, while also avoiding increasing the turnout of those voting explicitly against you.
If Trump tacks to the centre, no way will they turn out for him.
That probably isn't directly related to Putin though. There were local plans to merge the Okrug into its neighbours which did not go down very well with the populace at all.
The reality is that you would have to be very gullible indeed to not think he attempted to pervert the result. I would imagine he would consider it a great success.
52% of the British population are Putin's useful idiots. And they try to make out they are patriots!
https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1278655728975319042?s=20
https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1278655730070040576?s=20
But he's chosen to lose suburban women who preferred his (as it appeared) honest competence to Hillary Clinton.
If he's lucky, suburban women will go to DNV. If he's unlucky, they'll go to Biden. And if they go to Biden, he needs to pick up two new DNVs in his base for ever one he loses. That's a tough call.
My pet theory is the polls partly show unhappiness with life. And Americans have plenty to be unhappy about right now.
https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1278655727549255680
The pandemic is begining to look completely out of control in the USA. States that were previously little affected are starting to record worrying numbers.
Is there any sort of consensus in the US as to why the death rate seems so much lower than other countries?
It doesn't matter who's posting it here, what matters is who is seeing it when it airs in the US.
What an awful year 2020 is.
Perhaps though, Trump’s defeat is the cathartic moment we all need.
Did anyone take that bet that there would be a poll with the Tories behind before the end of 2020?
The Lincoln Project aren't after Trump's core voters they after the younger, college educated urban and suburban Republican that gave him the benefit of the doubt in 2016.
What is effective are their ads showing traditional Republican voters not just disgusted with Trump's morality and personality, but with how those directly and adversely impact on US interests and policies in ways that tangibly impact those traditional GOP voters - how Trump's character is leading to more COVID deaths, more and longer job losses, worse markets for farmers, and more US troop deaths overseas.
Just attacking Trump's benefiting from Russian dirty tricks and saying he's in Putin's pocket is far less effective, IMO.
Well I thought that Sir Keir may lose vote to the Greens if he strayed to far from Corbynism, and OJ seems to be threatening that. We are not in cahoots!
He has obviously tied himself in all kinds of knots with his taking of the knee, I cant imagine it was his idea. A photo op that went wrong. Corbyn, on the other hand, was in Archway yesterday and tweeting later in no uncertain terms that he is fully with the BLM moment/movement. Sir Keir should leave all that to him, maybe form a kind of pincer movement a la Vote Leave and Leave.EU in order to straddle both elements of the left wing vote @TOPPING ?
"We learned she had slithered away to a gorgeous property in New Hampshire, continuing to live a live a life of privilege while her victims continue to live with the trauma inflicted upon them years ago. We moved when we were ready and Ms. Maxwell was arrested without incident,” he said.
Sweeney said that the FBI, along with the NYPD, arrested Maxwell in Bradford, New Hampshire, this morning without incident.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3IcR6J6rtM
https://twitter.com/TheAnfieldWrap/status/905736040564051968
It wasn't just the one decision, although that offside was about as bad as it gets. It was the whole game. Weeds were so superior that the ref had to bend over backwards just to give their opponents a chance and even then they nearly muffed it.
It was Owen getting on Starmer's case a little bit. Not a lot but enough to make it clear that he and ilk will be no pushover.
1. Never interrupt your opponent when he's making a mistake. Biden's advisors have worked out that Trump is tying himself to an expanding CV-19 disaster, so why get your own face out there, and allow yourself to get into an argument with Trump.
2. The less people see of Biden, the more he can be people's idealised "anti-Trump". If they see him, he'll have to answer lots of awkward questions.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2013/dec/11/nottingham-forest-anderlecht-match-fixing-scandal-1984
He has obviously tied himself in all kinds of knots with his taking of the knee, I cant imagine it was his idea. A photo op that went wrong. Corbyn, on the other hand, was in Archway yesterday and tweeting later in no uncertain terms that he is fully with the BLM moment/movement. Sir Keir should leave all that to him, maybe form a kind of pincer movement a la Vote Leave and Leave.EU in order to straddle both elements of the left wing vote @TOPPING ?
Health systems in the US have not yet, with the exception of NYC two months ago, been overloaded.
If the virus can be contained so it stays within the capacity of health systems, it will probably be largely OK.
If it cannot, and the diminishing number of available IC beds in Houston and Phoenix suggest this is happening now, then you will see the death rate spike again.