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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden says Trump will have to be “escorted from the White House” if he’s not re-elected
One of the increasing worries about November’s US Presidential election is that Trump might not willingly leave the White House if he fails to get re-elected.
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I imagine Johnson and others will be desperate not to get involved, as if they did it would only inflame the situation. Let SCOTUS sort it out.
But it won't happen.
Surely not.
You know starting a war with Iran and the like.
It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.
When Boris promised to look after the "Red Wall" voters who backed him last December, if we knew he was going to listen to a young, northern, black man and gone with a policy that benefited the poorest in society, against his free market ideals, we would have thought it a real example of the new compassionate Conservatives installing a bit of Social Democracy.
It has happened... and the people that wanted him to act in the interests of such folk, and would hold him to account had he not are lampooning him for being weak and defeated.
Of course, had he not implemented the school meal policy, he would have remained the white supremacist, tin eared, out of touch Bullingdon Boy who has no connection with anyone outside his bubble.
Almost like the Tories banning postal voting.
The Electoral Kindergarten is an outdated means to gift the White House to LOSERS like DICKHEAD DONALD!
Very good. Probably the funniest remark on PB this year. You're improving, kiddo
64.2 million to Clinton
62.2 million to Trump
Just saying...
There will be those who argue the Government, rather than Twitter, should be making these kind of decisions and making the not unreasonable point Mr Rashford and those like him could easily make a personal contribution toward school meal funding rather than it coming from the hard-pressed taxpayer.
It's called argument and democracy. Sometimes Johnson gets it right, sometimes he gets it wrong, sometimes there's merit on both sides of the argument.
It's both those who excoriate the Government on everything and those who are its uncritical adherents who do democracy the greatest disservice.
Let's keep sending it to them but demand that they buy weaponry from us in return"
British foreign policy, 2020.
Looks that way.
It may be that the images of Floyd bring out a deeper feeling in people that the police behave callously or are racist in general. But the idea that black men being killed by the police is the biggest problem facing the United States is absurd. I feel misled.
Let's see what he's going to do with the "institutions"
https://twitter.com/stancollymore/status/1272967210689069057?s=21
https://twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/1272924908704727042
It really is the perfect example of wanting power more than getting policies they like, if they cant just say "fair enough, good outcome", on days like today
But, sorry Mike, I can't see disapproval by Boris making a blind bit of difference.
As has been demonstrated recently the US military tends to avoid politics.
I believe in old Rome the military stayed out of town. But it was the Praetorian guard wasn't it that installed Claudius? Claudius is usually considered to have been a stutterer and physically weak. Does that remind us of anyone?
"Race and Revolution: Is Change Going to Come?"
https://news.sky.com/story/race-and-revolution-is-change-going-to-come-12007980
A Trump-like petulance operating somewhere, I think.
But what I find terrifying is the stat that between 1980 and 2013 262,000 black males were killed in the US. The vast majority of those were not killed by police either legitimately or illegitimately.
There is something fundamentally wrong in, and with, the US today. Much as I wish it would, I don't see the current wave of protests making it any better.
I am sure it's always been the same
However, I do tend toward justin's take on this to a degree, in there being no obligation, and the way they are complaining about it makes it look just as pettily driven as any government response. Neil's call out of Boris during the GE campaign, not that it mattered, makes for an interesting counter example, in that while Neil has a big ego and the government held firm and won the day, the manner of his delivery was powerful and made in a way to emphasise it as a matter of principle, whether it was or not.
This, by contrast, is two sides acting like children.
But I do think it was a great error for Johnson not to be interviewed by Andrew Neil. It is one thing to avoid the sensationalist types of interviewers who are looking for the gotcha moments but there are still a number of serious journalists who are on top of their briefs and who are looking to get serious answers to serious questions.
I know in the end people will say it didn't harm Johnson as he won but the basic principle of avoiding public scrutiny in that way is, I believe, a poor message to send.
Trump is surrounded by people with handcuffs and guns who will simply give him the choice of being cuffed on TV or discretely leaving.
It will not be a circus. He might rant and rave between the election and the swearing in, but nobody is going to let him start WW3
The problem with police killings, and cases like Trayvon Martin, or Ahmaud Arbery is that they look very much like lynching rather than accidents, or overreaction.
Nothing to hide, no siree.
Ages 1-19 Homicide accounts for 35.3% of all black male deaths
Ages 20 - 44 Homicide accounts for 27.6% of all black male deaths
What else can you do in a pandemic though
So, if Trump loses the electoral vote in November, he's only really got two options for actually using his inevitable claims of election fraud to subvert the process and claim victory:
1) He can try to get the courts to disqualify votes that he claims are fraudulent, and/or get the state administrations, where controlled by Republicans, to do likewise, awarding the electoral votes to the Republican electoral slate. The former is a possibility, but I don't think the latter is very likely.
2) He can get Pence as President of the Senate to refuse to allow the count of electoral votes received from the states where he claims fraud took place. However, the Constitution does not make it clear that the VP actually has the power to conduct the count: the general consensus is that the VP just presides over the process and that the authority to count rests with the houses of Congress in joint session, which is almost certainly going to be majority Democratic.
There's precedent for all this, mostly from the disputed election of 1876, where some states ended up sending two competing returns, signed by governors and secretaries of state of different parties (in most states the secretary of state is elected independently of the governor). That was resolved by Congress appointing a bipartisan commission to rule on which electoral returns to accept.
The bottom line though, is that by January 20th 2021, someone will have been legally declared the victor of the presidential election, and if that someone is not Donald J. Trump, then Trump can sit and glower in the White House until noon, but at that point he will cease to be POTUS and will be removed just as soon as the new President orders it.
Hence the polls being good for Biden.
I think China will be at the centerpiece of that. The Democrats could not have selected a worse candidate to make an argument to the American people than Joe Biden. So I think 2020 is really a continuation almost of 2016. We still have not worked through these issues. Remember, the campaign slogan was “Make America Great Again.”
I said that that is going to be a generational struggle. You’re not going to wave a magic wand. I think 2020 is shaping up in the last 150 days to be just this classic counter of the globalism of Joe Biden and the Wall Street faction of the Democratic Party versus the economic nationalism and populism of Trump and potentially some slice of the Bernie [Sanders] contingent.
This confrontation with the Chinese Communist Party, I believe, will be the single defining aspect of 2020. And yes, I think for President Trump, because I think he’s just getting the sea legs now. Focusing on the law and order aspect of this, he was kind of quiet for the first week, as are the poll numbers.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/bannon-tells-at-us-election-is-all-about-china/?fbclid=IwAR1ZZrUWG3uwleecwCxZDzjtG_-2iBNnPbaOi6EzvcxA6V9Xy1dlnwtUMw0
Trump will leave office if he loses. I’d be worried that he’ll say “fuck in” in November, write a few pardons and go to Florida for the winter
The waste comes from some of the multilateral schemes it funds (eg the £1bn it gives to the EU to hand out on our behalf despite the fact that we are objectively better at it).
I actually have more issue with the fixed 0.7% target - I’d rather we spent money that is value added rather than to hit an arbitrary target
Difficult to know which.